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Financial security of Ukraine under martial law: Impact of macroeconomic determinants 戒严状态下乌克兰的金融安全:宏观经济决定因素的影响
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.13(2).2024.01
F. Zhuravka, S. Chorna, Y. Petrushenko, Stanislaw Alwasiak, T. Kubakh, Y. Mordan, John Soss
Russia’s open aggression against Ukraine has resulted in significant changes across all sectors of the Ukrainian economy and its financial sphere, including financial security. The paper aims to identify the impact of the primary macroeconomic determinants, i.e., military defense spending, non-performing bank loans, exchange rate, foreign debt, and state (total) reserves, on the financial security of Ukraine under martial law. The canonical correlation analysis is employed to assess the strength of the relationship between the above macroeconomic indicators and the level of the state’s financial security. It was found that the reduction of the state’s financial security level in 2022 was 63.9%, explained exactly by the changes in the above macroeconomic determinants after the start of a full-scale invasion. The study determined the degree of influence of each indicator on Ukraine’s financial security level. An increase in the level of military defense spending, non-performing bank loans, hryvnia’s devaluation, and external debt growth had a direct negative impact on Ukraine’s financial security. At the same time, an upsurge in total reserves had an indirect negative impact (through the external debt growth). The research findings confirm the necessity for effective monitoring and management of the macroeconomic indicators to maintain both Ukraine’s financial security and macro-financial stability in order to ensure its’ sustainable economic development during the postwar recovery period.AcknowledgmentThis research is financially supported by the NATO SPS Program “Security of territorial communities: evidence from the Eastern European countries”.
俄罗斯对乌克兰的公开侵略导致乌克兰经济及其金融领域的所有部门都发生了重大变化,包括金融安全。本文旨在确定主要宏观经济决定因素(即军事国防开支、银行不良贷款、汇率、外债和国家(总)储备)对戒严状态下乌克兰金融安全的影响。采用典型相关分析法来评估上述宏观经济指标与国家财政安全水平之间的关系强度。研究发现,2022 年国家财政安全水平的下降幅度为 63.9%,而这正是由全面入侵开始后上述宏观经济决定因素的变化所解释的。研究确定了每个指标对乌克兰财政安全水平的影响程度。国防军费开支、银行不良贷款、格里夫纳贬值和外债增长的增加对乌克兰的金融安全产生了直接的负面影响。同时,总储备的激增(通过外债增长)也产生了间接的负面影响。研究结果证实,有必要对宏观经济指标进行有效监控和管理,以维护乌克兰的金融安全和宏观金融稳定,从而确保其在战后恢复时期的可持续经济发展。
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引用次数: 0
The complexity of tax regulations and principles of justice as determinants of taxpayer compliance: case of Indonesia 税收法规的复杂性和公正原则是纳税人遵纪守法的决定因素:印度尼西亚的案例
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-07-15 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.13(1).2024.14
Chalarce Totanan, Jamaluddin, Muliati, Femilia Zahra, Muh. Ilham Pakawaru
This study aims to determine and analyze the determinants of the complexity of tax regulations and the principles of justice regarding taxpayer compliance in Indonesia. The study surveyed 148 individual taxpayers who are entrepreneurs of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) using a Google Form. The results show that the complexity of tax regulations has a significant negative effect (–0.253) on taxpayer compliance, and the principles of justice (0.501) have a significant positive effect on taxpayer compliance. An R square shows that independent variables have a 45.5% influence on increasing taxpayer compliance. The degree of the correlation relationship between all independent variables is around 0.674. The results confirm the relationship between the complexity of tax regulations and the principle of justice and their effect on taxpayer compliance. Therefore, to increase taxpayer compliance, the government should put efforts into simplifying and explaining tax regulations. This can help reduce inadvertent errors, increase taxpayer confidence, and reduce the overall cost of complying with regulations. It is important to consider aspects of justice when designing and implementing the tax system. Efforts to increase transparency, reduce injustice, and make taxes applied proportionally can help strengthen taxpayer compliance and support the sustainability of state revenues.
本研究旨在确定和分析印尼纳税人遵从税收法规的复杂性和公正原则的决定因素。研究使用谷歌表格调查了 148 名个体纳税人,他们都是微型、小型和中型企业(MSMEs)的企业家。结果显示,税收法规的复杂性对纳税人遵从度有显著的负面影响(-0.253),而公正原则(0.501)对纳税人遵从度有显著的正面影响。R 平方显示,自变量对提高纳税人遵从度的影响为 45.5%。所有自变量之间的相关程度约为 0.674。结果证实了税收法规的复杂性与公正原则之间的关系及其对纳税人遵从度的影响。因此,为了提高纳税人的遵从度,政府应努力简化和解释税收法规。这有助于减少疏忽造成的错误,增强纳税人的信心,降低遵守法规的总体成本。在设计和实施税收制度时,必须考虑公正性。努力提高透明度、减少不公正现象并按比例征税,有助于加强纳税人的合规性,支持国家财政收入的可持续性。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of attitude, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and organizational commitment on whistleblowing intention: A moderating role of local culture 态度、主观规范、感知行为控制和组织承诺对举报意向的影响:地方文化的调节作用
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.13(1).2024.13
Nurdiana Ningsih, Arifuddin, Asri Usman
During forensic audits, the use of auditors has increased significantly. This happened thanks to fraud detection mechanisms that help prevent and quickly detect fraud. Whistleblowing systems set up by local authorities play an important role in detecting fraudulent activities and protecting the rights of whistleblowers, promoting transparency and accountability in public organizations. This study aims to analyze and explain the impact of attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, and organizational commitment on whistleblowing intention moderated by local culture. This analysis was conducted on local government internal auditors in 24 districts/cities in South Sulawesi Province, Indonesia. Research data were collected through questionnaires with a total research sample of 246 respondents and analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis and moderated regression analysis using the SPSS version 23 application. The research findings show that attitudes, perceived behavioral control, and organizational commitment have a significant effect on whistleblowing intention, while subjective norms do not have a significant effect on whistleblowing intention. Furthermore, regional culture moderates the influence of subjective norms and perceived behavioral control on whistleblowing intention but is unable to moderate the influence of attitudes and organizational commitment on whistleblowing intention.
在法证审计过程中,审计人员的使用大幅增加。这要归功于有助于预防和快速发现欺诈行为的欺诈行为侦查机制。地方当局建立的举报制度在发现欺诈活动、保护举报人权利、促进公共组织的透明度和问责制方面发挥着重要作用。本研究旨在分析和解释在地方文化调节下,态度、主观规范、感知行为控制和组织承诺对举报意向的影响。分析对象为印度尼西亚南苏拉威西省 24 个地区/城市的地方政府内部审计人员。研究数据是通过问卷调查收集的,共有 246 名受访者参与调查,并使用 SPSS 23 版应用程序进行多元线性回归分析和调节回归分析。研究结果表明,态度、感知行为控制和组织承诺对举报意向有显著影响,而主观规范对举报意向没有显著影响。此外,区域文化可以调节主观规范和感知行为控制对举报意向的影响,但无法调节态度和组织承诺对举报意向的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing administrative service delivery practices of local government: Experiences from Nepal 加强地方政府提供行政服务的做法:尼泊尔的经验
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.13(1).2024.12
Suman Kharel, Khom Raj Kharel, Yadav Mani Upadhyaya, Shiva Raj Ghimire, Prajwal Man Pradhan
This study aims to examine the administrative service delivery practices within the local government of Nepal and explore the intricate perceptions of the interplay between governance, service delivery, and citizens. The objectives include understanding the contextual elements that shape states, addressing concerns of developing nations, emphasizing service delivery, prioritizing citizen viewpoints, and tackling governance issues. Utilizing a mixed-methods approach grounded on post-positivism, the study employs purposeful sampling to select rural municipalities in Nepal. Data collection involves a quantitative institutional survey to assess the current state of public administrative services, with survey respondents comprising service providers and citizens. The respondents reported higher levels of satisfaction with the efficiency, timeliness, and resource availability of administrative services. However, the study also revealed gaps and disparities in the knowledge and perceptions of administrative practices and governance among different respondent groups and ecological regions. Emphasizing the significant advantages of collaboration, decentralization, people-centric development, and meaningful engagement, the study highlights the need for further research and policy interventions to enhance public service delivery and governance of local government in Nepal.
本研究旨在考察尼泊尔地方政府内部的行政服务提供实践,并探讨对治理、服务提供和公民之间相互作用的复杂看法。研究目标包括了解形成国家的背景因素、解决发展中国家的关切、强调服务提供、优先考虑公民观点以及解决治理问题。本研究采用以后实证主义为基础的混合方法,有目的地抽样选取尼泊尔的农村市镇。数据收集包括一项定量机构调查,以评估公共行政服务的现状,调查对象包括服务提供者和公民。受访者对行政服务的效率、及时性和资源可用性的满意度较高。然而,研究也揭示了不同受访群体和生态区域在对行政实践和治理的了解和认知方面存在的差距和差异。本研究强调了合作、权力下放、以人为本的发展和有意义的参与的重要优势,强调了进一步研究和政策干预的必要性,以加强尼泊尔地方政府的公共服务提供和治理。
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引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic factors and government bond yield in Indonesia 宏观经济因素与印度尼西亚政府债券收益率
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.13(1).2024.08
Naning Fatmawatie, Endri Endri, Destyanah Husein
The issuance of bonds by the government attracts the interest of many investors, including foreigners. The government must understand the factors determining bond yields for managing government debt. This study aims to investigate the effect of domestic and global macroeconomic variables on government bond yields in Indonesia. The paper uses monthly data from November 2014 to December 2022. The research sample comprises government bonds with 5, 10, and 15-year tenor bonds. The GARCH (1,1) and GARCH-M (1,1) models are applied to estimate and analyze the determinants of government bond yields. Research findings reveal that Indonesian interest rates significantly affect the yield of 10- and 15-year tenor bonds. Inflation has no impact on bond yields across all tenors. The increase in foreign exchange reserves reduces bond yields in all tenors. The Indonesian stock exchange index is detrimental to long-term bond yields. The exchange rate has a positive impact on bond yields in all tenors. World oil prices significantly impact yields on 5- and 10-year tenor bonds. The Fed’s interest rate positively affects the yield on the 15-year tenor bond. The implication of these findings for the Indonesian government is the implementation of several aspects of economic and financial policies that can improve state debt management and financial market stability.
政府发行债券吸引了包括外国人在内的许多投资者的兴趣。政府必须了解决定债券收益率的因素,以便管理政府债务。本研究旨在探讨国内和全球宏观经济变量对印尼政府债券收益率的影响。本文使用的是 2014 年 11 月至 2022 年 12 月的月度数据。研究样本包括 5 年期、10 年期和 15 年期政府债券。本文采用 GARCH (1,1) 和 GARCH-M (1,1) 模型来估计和分析政府债券收益率的决定因素。研究结果表明,印尼利率对 10 年期和 15 年期债券收益率有重大影响。通货膨胀对所有期限的债券收益率都没有影响。外汇储备的增加降低了所有期限债券的收益率。印尼股票交易指数不利于长期债券收益率。汇率对所有期限的债券收益率都有积极影响。世界石油价格对 5 年期和 10 年期债券收益率有重大影响。美联储利率对 15 年期债券收益率有积极影响。这些发现对印尼政府的启示是,实施经济和金融政策的几个方面可以改善国家债务管理和金融市场的稳定性。
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引用次数: 0
Fiscal policy and economic growth in resource-rich country: Empirical evidence from Azerbaijan 资源丰富国家的财政政策与经济增长:阿塞拜疆的经验证据
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-20 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.13(1).2024.07
Yashar Kalbiyev, Javid Seyfullali
The relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth is one of the longest-lived economic discourses. In this context, countries with emerging institutions and resource-based economies are of particular interest. Therefore, the Azerbaijani economy was chosen as the object of study. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth in Azerbaijan and analyze the possible existence of the BARS curve relationship in Azerbaijan. The study covers quarterly data for 2005Q1–2023Q2. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test is used to evaluate the relationship between fiscal variables and economic growth (both general and non-oil), as well as the BARS curve relationship. The analysis revealed a positive association between government spending and both overall and non-oil economic growth over the long term. On average, a 1% rise in government spending corresponds to a 0.6% increase in economic growth. Conversely, in the short term, a negative relationship is observed between government spending and economic growth, encompassing both the general and non-oil economy. Notably, no statistical evidence supporting the presence of the BARS curve relationship in Azerbaijan was identified. Amid the circumstances of decreasing oil production in Azerbaijan, these results put more emphasis on the importance of increasing the productivity of government spending.
财政政策与经济增长之间的关系是历史最悠久的经济话题之一。在此背景下,新兴机构和资源型经济国家尤其值得关注。因此,本文选择阿塞拜疆经济作为研究对象。本文旨在分析阿塞拜疆财政政策与经济增长之间的关系,并分析阿塞拜疆可能存在的 BARS 曲线关系。研究涵盖 2005Q1-2023Q2 的季度数据。采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)约束检验来评估财政变量与经济增长(包括一般经济增长和非石油经济增长)之间的关系以及 BARS 曲线关系。分析表明,从长期来看,政府支出与总体经济增长和非石油经济增长之间存在正相关关系。平均而言,政府支出每增加 1%,经济增长就会增加 0.6%。相反,从短期来看,政府支出与经济增长(包括总体经济和非石油经济)之间呈负相关。值得注意的是,在阿塞拜疆没有发现支持 BARS 曲线关系存在的统计证据。在阿塞拜疆石油产量下降的情况下,这些结果更加强调了提高政府支出生产率的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Tax policy and activation of internal factors of economic growth: EU experience for Ukraine 税收政策与激活经济增长的内部因素:乌克兰的欧盟经验
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-05-17 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.13(1).2024.06
Olena Dobrovolska, Ralf Sonntag, S. Kachula, Liubov Lysiak, Pavlo Lastovchenko
The state policy of Ukraine aims to promote sustainable economic growth and improve its quality through economic activity, particularly through the optimization of the tax system, which is particularly relevant both during the period of martial law in Ukraine and the post-war recovery. The purpose of the study is to assess the formation and implementation of the state tax policy to activate the internal factors of economic growth in Ukraine under martial law. The study of tax policy in Ukraine and EU countries has shown that the EU countries are characterized by a consistent and transparent tax policy that stimulates investment, innovation, and entrepreneurship to activate internal factors of economic growth. The paper uses fiscal analysis based on the Cobb-Douglas production-institutional function; its main concept is the mutual location of the Laffer points of the first and second types and the actual level of the tax burden. The results show a noticeable adjustment of the real fiscal climate in Ukraine in line with changes in threshold fiscal standards. Considering martial law in Ukraine and the need for the state’s ability to post-war recovery, the study suggests changing the rates of specific taxes, after which it is necessary to make a transition from private fiscal instruments with inherent rate values to the aggregate fiscal burden.
乌克兰的国家政策旨在通过经济活动,特别是通过优化税收制度来促进可持续经济增长并提高其质量,这一点在乌克兰戒严时期和战后恢复时期尤为重要。本研究旨在评估戒严时期乌克兰激活经济增长内因的国家税收政策的形成和实施情况。对乌克兰和欧盟国家税收政策的研究表明,欧盟国家的税收政策具有一贯性和透明性的特点,能够刺激投资、创新和创业,从而激活经济增长的内部因素。本文采用基于柯布-道格拉斯生产-制度函数的财政分析方法;其主要概念是第一类和第二类拉弗点与实际税负水平的相互位置。结果表明,乌克兰的实际财政环境随着财政标准门槛的变化而发生了明显的调整。考虑到乌克兰的戒严令和国家战后恢复能力的需要,研究建议改变特定税种的税率,之后有必要从具有固有税率值的私人财政工具过渡到总体财政负担。
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引用次数: 0
Resilience of territorial communities amid the war against Ukraine: The role of budgetary instruments 领土社区在乌克兰战争中的复原力:预算工具的作用
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-04-11 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.13(1).2024.04
H. Voznyak, K. Patytska, O. Mulska, I. Zherebylo, Danylo Sorokovyi
Russia’s war against Ukraine has exacerbated challenges and risks to community development. Improving the ability to withstand the shocks of the external and internal environment, adapt to changes in the security environment, respond to threats, maintain sustainable functioning, and recover to the desired equilibrium will contribute to strengthening the resilience of communities. Budgetary instruments are crucial for ensuring the resilience of communities in such conditions. This study aims to identify the impact of budgetary instruments on ensuring the resilience of territorial communities amid the war in Ukraine (the case of Lviv oblast). The methods include a systemic and structural approach (building an information and analytical model of resilience research) and indicative and GAP analysis (identifying the impact of budgetary instruments on community resilience, in particular, local taxes, transfers, and personal income tax (PIT)). The data of 73 communities in Lviv oblast for 2021–2023 were collected. The study shows that the resilience of the territorial communities of Lviv oblast during the study period was at a moderate and above-moderate level; most were in the zones of resistance (resilience indicators ranging from 0.43-0.65) and decreasing resilience (0.42-0.20); the resilience of 8% was at a critically low level (2022–2023). The results estimate that the resilience of 90% communities in 2024 will not change significantly if military PIT is redirected from local to state budgets, except for those communities whose resilience is highly dependent on the amount of military PIT (the decrease in resilience will range from 12.5 to 4.2 percentage points).
俄罗斯对乌克兰的战争加剧了社区发展面临的挑战和风险。提高抵御内外环境冲击的能力、适应安全环境变化的能力、应对威胁的能力、保持可持续运作的能力以及恢复到理想平衡状态的能力,将有助于加强社区的复原力。预算工具对于确保社区在这种情况下的复原力至关重要。本研究旨在确定预算工具对确保乌克兰战争期间领土社区复原力的影响(以利沃夫州为例)。研究方法包括系统性和结构性方法(建立复原力研究的信息和分析模型)以及指示性和差距分析(确定预算工具对社区复原力的影响,特别是地方税、转移支付和个人所得税(PIT))。收集了利沃夫州 73 个社区 2021-2023 年的数据。研究表明,在研究期间,利沃夫州境内社区的复原力处于中等和中等以上水平;大多数社区处于抵抗区(复原力指标范围为 0.43-0.65)和复原力下降区(0.42-0.20);8%的社区复原力处于极低水平(2022-2023 年)。结果估计,如果军用 PIT 从地方预算转为州预算,90% 的社区在 2024 年的抗灾能力将不会发生重大变化,但抗灾能力高度依赖军用 PIT 数量的社区除外(抗灾能力将下降 12.5 到 4.2 个百分点不等)。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of government microfinance program on poverty alleviation and job creation in a developing economy 政府小额信贷计划对发展中经济体减贫和创造就业的影响
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-03-06 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.13(1).2024.03
Timothy Olaniyi Aluko, Innocent Bayai, Prince Chukwuneme Enwereji
Government initiatives to eradicate poverty in developing countries have included establishing microfinance programs to provide microloans and credit to the less privileged living in peri-urban and rural areas where commercial financial institutions are underrepresented. The study aims to investigate the effect of the South African Microfinance Apex Fund (SAMAF) on poverty alleviation and job creation. This case study targeted 103 beneficiary firms and self-employed individuals to send them questionnaires. The data analysis was primarily exploratory and descriptive. The findings show that the majority, 87%, agreed that the loans they accessed were sufficient for their business plans and needs. In addition, they were able to create at least one additional job after receiving the loan and improve their total business income on average compared to before the SAMAF loan. However, due to the risk of non-repayment of loans by recipients living in informal settlements, most microfinance intermediary institutions were unwilling to expand their operations into such settlements. SAMAF, on the other hand, has flaws, one of which is the slow delivery of funds to microfinance intermediary institutions, which needs to be addressed. The study concludes that to address the credit needs of semi-rural and rural residents, microfinance intermediary institutions must do more to expand into these areas and adopt a more aggressive and creative approach to the development of financial products and expand their access to include more of the poorest and most vulnerable households.
发展中国家政府消除贫困的举措包括建立小额信贷计划,为生活在商业金融机构代表不足的城郊和农村地区的弱势群体提供小额贷款和信贷。本研究旨在调查南非小额信贷顶级基金(SAMAF)对减贫和创造就业的影响。本案例研究以 103 家受益企业和自营职业者为对象,向他们发送了调查问卷。数据分析主要是探索性和描述性的。调查结果显示,87%的受访者认为他们获得的贷款足以满足他们的商业计划和需求。此外,与获得 SAMAF 贷款前相比,他们在获得贷款后至少能够多创造一个就业机会,并平均提高了总营业收入。然而,由于居住在非正规居住区的受助人存在不偿还贷款的风险,大多数小额信贷中介机构不愿意将业务扩展到此类居住区。另一方面,SAMAF 也存在缺陷,其中之一就是向小额信贷中介机构提供资金的速度较慢,这一点需要加以解决。研究得出的结论是,为了满足半农村和农村居民的信贷需求,小额信贷中介机构必须做出更多努力,将业务扩展到这些地区,并采取更积极、更具创造性的方法开发金融产品,扩大其准入范围,将更多最贫穷和最弱势的家庭纳入其中。
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引用次数: 0
Patterns and trends in research on external public debt management 公共外债管理研究的模式和趋势
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-16 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.13(1).2024.02
M. Razinkova, T. Grynko, N. Nebaba, Rostislav Botvinov, D. Pryimachenko
This study undertakes a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of publications pertaining to the external public debt management system. The paper aims to study the evolution of scholarly discourse surrounding the external public debt management domain, highlighting contributions, methodologies, and collaborative networks within the field. The methodology encompasses a multivariate approach, incorporating extensive searches across the three major scientometric databases: Google Scholar (PoP), Scopus (in-built Scopus tools, SciVal), and Web of Science (in-built WoS instruments). The bibliometric analysis extends to contextual, evolutionary, and spatial dimensions, allowing for a comprehensive understanding of the identified clusters. The ensuing clusters serve as a roadmap, categorizing publications based on their contextual relevance, evolutionary trajectory, and spatial focus, which enhances the identification of key works in the field, facilitating a nuanced understanding of the current state of external public debt management research. The synthesis of findings from the content-contextual block emphasizes a primary orientation toward understanding the dynamic interplay between external public debt management and economic development. Furthermore, the contextual-temporal block identifies four distinct stages in the evolution of research focus, highlighting the shifting emphasis over time. A discernible pattern of heightened research activity in external public debt management across various countries in recent decades is revealed through spatiotemporal analysis. The interdisciplinary nature of this field is underscored by the dominance of economics, econometrics, finance, business, management, and accounting in dedicated research.
本研究对有关外部公共债务管理系统的出版物进行了全面的文献计量分析。本文旨在研究围绕外部公共债务管理领域的学术论述的演变,突出该领域内的贡献、方法和合作网络。研究方法包括一种多元方法,在三大科学计量数据库中进行广泛搜索:谷歌学者(PoP)、Scopus(内置 Scopus 工具、SciVal)和 Web of Science(内置 WoS 工具)。文献计量学分析扩展到背景、演变和空间维度,从而能够全面了解已确定的集群。随后的聚类可作为一个路线图,根据其背景相关性、演变轨迹和空间重点对出版物进行分类,从而加强对该领域关键作品的识别,促进对外部公共债务管理研究现状的细致了解。内容-背景板块的研究成果综合强调了理解外部公共债务管理与经济发展之间动态相互作用的主要方向。此外,"背景-时间 "板块确定了研究重点演变的四个不同阶段,突出了随着时间推移重点的转移。通过时空分析,可以发现近几十年来各国在外部公共债务管理方面的研究活动明显增加。经济学、计量经济学、金融学、商业、管理学和会计学在专门研究中的主导地位凸显了这一领域的跨学科性质。
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Public and Municipal Finance
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