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Tax, investment, institutional and social channels of economic shadowing: Challenges for macro-financial stability and good governance 经济阴影的税收、投资、体制和社会渠道:宏观金融稳定和善治的挑战
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-06 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.11(1).2022.11
S. Lyeonov, I. Tiutiunyk, Miroslava Vasekova, Oleksandr Dziubenko, M.Yu. Samchyk
A significant size of the shadow economy is a threat to the sustainable functioning of a country’s economy, its ability to finance economic and social programs. The paper studies the influence of the shadow economy on the macro-financial stability of the EU countries. The dependence between macro-financial stability and the size of the shadow economy was estimated using the quadrocentric (considering the four channels of the shadow economy) recursive (takes into account direct and inverse relationships between them) model. Dependence between indicators was analyzed using Euler’s methods, Calvo’s and Dixit Stiglitz’s principles, Taylor’s and Smets-Wouters’ function. It has been proved that shadow economy channels affect the macro-financial stability almost equally (an increase in the size of the shadow economy in Slovenia by 1% leads to a decrease in macro-financial stability by 0.562% for tax, 0.56% for investment, 0.572 for institutional, and 0.444 for social channels). At the same time, the growth in the volume of shadow transactions through one channel forms an impetus for the increasing intensity of use of the remaining channels to hide income. With the help of the payment matrix, the optimal level of drivers of shadow economy by which the targeted value of the level of macro-financial stability is achieved was determined. It was concluded that ensuring good governance in the direction of preventing shadow schemes of capital withdrawal should be carried out in terms of institutional, tax, social, and investment channels of the shadow economy.AcknowledgmentThis work was supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency under the contract No. APVV-16-0602.
影子经济的巨大规模对一个国家经济的可持续运行及其为经济和社会项目融资的能力构成了威胁。本文研究了影子经济对欧盟国家宏观金融稳定的影响。宏观金融稳定与影子经济规模之间的依赖性是使用四元中心(考虑影子经济的四个渠道)递归(考虑它们之间的直接和反向关系)模型估计的。使用欧拉方法、卡尔沃原理和Dixit-Stiglitz原理、泰勒函数和Smets Wouters函数分析指标之间的相关性。事实证明,影子经济渠道对宏观金融稳定的影响几乎相同(斯洛文尼亚影子经济规模增加1%,导致宏观金融稳定下降0.562%(税收)、0.56%(投资)、0.572(机构)和0.444(社会))。与此同时,通过一个渠道进行的影子交易量的增长,推动了利用剩余渠道隐藏收入的力度越来越大。借助支付矩阵,确定了影子经济驱动因素的最优水平,从而实现宏观金融稳定水平的目标值。得出的结论是,应在影子经济的体制、税收、社会和投资渠道方面,确保朝着防止影子资本撤出计划的方向进行善治。鸣谢这项工作得到了斯洛伐克研究与发展机构的支持,合同编号为APVV-16-0602。
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引用次数: 2
The impact of governance quality on central bank’s independence 治理质量对央行独立性的影响
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-05 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.11(1).2022.10
T. Vasylieva, V. Dudchenko, Y. Samusevych, A. Marci, Vadym Sofronov
The stable functioning of the public finance system requires a rational regulatory apparatus. The central bank occupies a special place in this system. Science and practice prove that the central bank’s political and economic independence determines its effectiveness. Thus, it is crucial to determine the prerequisites for ensuring its independence. The study aims to assess the influence of governance quality on the central bank’s independence, considering the variance of the socio-political development of countries. The analysis was conducted based on 53 countries. Panel regression modeling with random effects was chosen as a research method. The analysis approach involves calculations for the groups of countries that differ in social and political development parameters according to the following criteria: the initial level of the central bank independence; level of human development; political rights freedom; level of civil liberties; and political regime. Socio-political factors significantly affect the central bank’s independence in the following conditions: a high initial level of independence of the central bank, a high level of human development, and an average level of political and civil freedom. At the same time, the governance quality ensures the growth of the central bank’s independence regardless of the countries’ political regime. Three factors have the most significant influence on ensuring the independence of the central bank, namely “government efficiency,” “quality of regulation,” and “rule of law.”
公共财政系统的稳定运作需要一个合理的监管机构。中央银行在这个体系中占有特殊的地位。科学和实践证明,中央银行的政治和经济独立性决定了其有效性。因此,至关重要的是确定确保其独立性的先决条件。本研究旨在考虑各国社会政治发展的差异,评估治理质量对央行独立性的影响。该分析基于53个国家。选择具有随机效应的面板回归模型作为研究方法。分析方法包括根据以下标准对社会和政治发展参数不同的国家集团进行计算:中央银行独立性的初始水平;人类发展水平;政治权利自由;公民自由水平;和政治制度。社会政治因素在以下条件下对中央银行的独立性产生重大影响:中央银行的高度初始独立性、人类发展水平以及政治和公民自由的平均水平。同时,无论国家的政治制度如何,治理质量都确保了央行独立性的增长。三个因素对确保央行的独立性影响最大,即“政府效率”、“监管质量”和“法治”
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引用次数: 1
Examining governance and performance of utility companies after mergers: a case from a municipal water company in Greece 公用事业公司合并后的治理和绩效考察——以希腊一家市政水务公司为例
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-31 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.11(1).2022.08
Michail Pazarskis, Stergios Galanis, Maria Gkatziou, Sofia Kourtesi
This study deals with the governance and performance of utility companies following mergers in local government organizations (LGOs). It is demonstrated by using the municipal water supply and sewerage company in city of Serres as a case study of how the reform initiative known as “Kallikratis” has impacted Greek municipal water and sewerage companies. As a result of the Kallikratis Program, the municipalities were merged, and new data were added to the map of local government in Greece. The methodological approach entails surveying the economic analysis of raw data using a number of financial ratios (financial statements of the municipal company). The study’s findings demonstrate that the municipal company of Serres was able to plan the actions that resulted in an improvement of the majority of the examined ratios after merger events, despite the extra responsibilities and geographic areas that the Kallikratis Program added to the municipal companies and the reduction of the extraordinary subsidies as a result of the Greek debt crisis. Eleven of the fourteen ratios perform better than they did before the merger, while three of them actually perform worse (2011–2018). However, various and contradictory results about the evolution of these ratios are seen over the crisis era, as some of them initially show a partial improvement (in the midst of the economic crisis period), but then they gradually deteriorate by the end of the crisis.
本研究涉及地方政府组织合并后公用事业公司的治理和绩效。以塞雷斯市的市政供水和污水处理公司为例,研究了被称为“Kallikratis”的改革举措对希腊市政供水和排污公司的影响。由于Kallikratis计划,市政当局被合并,新的数据被添加到希腊地方政府的地图上。方法论方法需要使用一些财务比率(市政公司的财务报表)对原始数据的经济分析进行调查。该研究的结果表明,尽管Kallikratis计划为市政公司增加了额外的责任和地理区域,并且由于希腊债务危机减少了特别补贴,Serres市政公司能够计划在合并事件后提高大多数审查比率的行动。14个比率中有11个比合并前表现更好,而其中3个实际上表现更差(2011-2018年)。然而,在危机时期,人们看到了关于这些比率演变的各种矛盾的结果,因为其中一些比率最初显示出部分改善(在经济危机期间),但后来在危机结束时逐渐恶化。
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引用次数: 2
A sharia economic collaboration model and its positive impact on developing of poor villages: A study in Indonesia 伊斯兰教法经济合作模式及其对贫困村发展的积极影响:在印度尼西亚的一项研究
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-10-31 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.11(1).2022.09
Azhar Alam, Ririn Tri Ratnasari, Boby Habibi, Fauzul Hanif Noor Athief
The economic development of villages has a substantial impact on community welfare. It can become the backbone of the national economy. However, significant obstacles in village development are lack of human resources (HR), high poverty rates, poor common welfare, justice, and prosperity values. In 2022, in Indonesia there are 9584 underdeveloped villages. Some of the causes of the weak economic condition of a village are economic potential was not optimized, and excessive government interference stifled creativity and independence. This study seeks to explore the extent of the positive impact of the sharia economic implementation model in developing the village’s economy and the model’s potential as an alternative solution to building the economy of poor villages. This paper used descriptive qualitative methods, observations, and interviews with community leaders, community representatives, and the regency office. The results show that the economic development strategies carried out by Gerdu Village had three stages, namely (1) education and cooperation, (2) implementation and management, and (3) evaluation and planning. In addition, the internal driving factor behind the success of the village’s development lies in the activeness of village leaders in implementing sharia economics. As for cooperation with external parties, National Zakat Institution, related local department government, and other institutions around the village have also actively assisted in its development. Positive impacts on the community include increased employment opportunities, income, tourist visits, and tourism and language village programs. This study is expected to be one of the references to explain the Islamic economy’s role in advancing the poor village’s economy.AcknowledgmentWe would like to express our utmost gratitude to the Department of Sharia Economic Law Study Program, Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta and the Department of Islamic Economics, Universitas Airlangga for supporting this study and its publication process.
村庄的经济发展对社区福利有着实质性的影响。它可以成为国民经济的支柱。然而,农村发展的重大障碍是人力资源缺乏、贫困率高、共同福利、正义和繁荣价值观差。到2022年,印尼有9584个不发达的村庄。农村经济状况薄弱的主要原因是经济潜力没有得到优化,政府的过度干预扼杀了村民的创造性和独立性。本研究旨在探讨伊斯兰教法经济实施模式在发展村庄经济方面的积极影响程度,以及该模式作为建设贫困村经济的替代解决方案的潜力。本文采用描述性定性方法、观察和对社区领导人、社区代表和摄政办公室的访谈。结果表明,格尔都村实施的经济发展战略分为三个阶段,即(1)教育与合作阶段、(2)实施与管理阶段、(3)评价与规划阶段。此外,村庄发展成功的内在驱动因素在于村领导实施伊斯兰经济的积极性。在对外合作方面,国家天课研究会、当地相关部门政府、村周边其他机构也积极协助其发展。对社区的积极影响包括增加就业机会、收入、游客访问量以及旅游和语言村项目。该研究有望成为解释伊斯兰经济在促进贫困村经济发展中的作用的参考之一。我们要对穆罕默德大学伊斯兰经济法研究项目系和艾尔朗加大学伊斯兰经济系对本研究及其出版过程的支持表示最衷心的感谢。
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引用次数: 1
Structure of local government budgets and local fiscal autonomy: Evidence from Indonesia 地方政府预算结构与地方财政自主权:来自印度尼西亚的证据
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-08-02 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.11(1).2022.07
Musviyanti, Fibriyani Nur Khairin, Hariman Bone, Muhammad Abadan Syakura, Rizky Yudaruddin
This study aimed to investigate the critical aspects of Indonesia’s local government budget structure. The impact of the budget on local fiscal autonomy was also examined by separating the sample of provinces in Java Island and Bali versus Non-Java Island and Bali. The unbalanced panel data was collected on 34 Indonesian provinces from 2013 to 2020. The results showed that locally-generated revenue and general allocation funds positively affect the regional fiscal autonomy index. These results indicate that local revenue and general allocation funds have improved regional fiscal autonomy. When the provincial sample is separated, general allocation funds positively and significantly affect the regional fiscal autonomy index in the provinces of Java Island and Bali. Furthermore, locally-generated revenue, as well as general allocation and profit-sharing funds, play a significant role in increasing the regional fiscal autonomy index in provinces outside Java and Bali, such as Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Papua. These findings suggest that different geographical conditions and infrastructure have varying effects on encouraging regional fiscal autonomy. This study invites policymakers to address the strengthening of regional authority to explore income sources and budgeting quality and evaluate intergovernmental fiscal relationships.AcknowledgmentThe authors express gratitude to the three anonymous reviewers and seminar attendees at Mulawarman University for their insightful comments.
本研究旨在调查印尼地方政府预算结构的关键方面。预算对地方财政自主权的影响也通过将爪哇岛和巴厘岛与非爪哇岛和巴利岛的省份样本分开进行了研究。2013年至2020年,收集了印度尼西亚34个省份的不平衡面板数据。结果表明,地方财政收入和一般分配资金对区域财政自治指数有正向影响。这些结果表明,地方财政收入和一般拨款提高了区域财政自主权。当省样本分离时,一般拨款对爪哇岛省和巴厘岛省的区域财政自治指数产生了积极而显著的影响。此外,在苏门答腊、加里曼丹、苏拉威西和巴布亚等爪哇和巴厘岛以外的省份,当地产生的收入以及一般分配和利润分享基金在提高区域财政自治指数方面发挥着重要作用。这些发现表明,不同的地理条件和基础设施对鼓励区域财政自治有不同的影响。本研究邀请政策制定者讨论加强区域权力的问题,以探索收入来源和预算编制质量,并评估政府间财政关系。鸣谢作者对穆拉瓦曼大学的三位匿名评审员和研讨会与会者发表的富有洞察力的评论表示感谢。
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引用次数: 12
Financing of tourism and recreation in municipal programs during the pandemic period: the case of Odesa 疫情期间市政项目中的旅游和娱乐融资:以敖德萨为例
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-07-08 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.11(1).2022.06
M. Petrushenko, H. Shevchenko, N. Khumarova, Alina Krivenceva
The threat of rapid spread of COVID-19 infection was felt primarily by residents of big cities and in the economy of resort towns the tourism and recreation sector suffered the most. At the same time, the need for travelling and recreation in conditions of forced isolation and the need for rehabilitation of citizens has not decreased. Accordingly, the municipal authorities should carry out appropriate organizational and financial measures aimed at maintaining the functioning of the domestic market of recreational and tourist services. The study aims to analyze the indicators of financing tourism and recreation within the socio-economic programs of urban development in order to develop recommendations based on the results to improve this funding within the adaptation to the conditions of the pandemic period. This was done by analyzing the development programs of the city of Odesa in Ukraine, the effect of which extends to the pre-pandemic period of 2019, as well as the years of the pandemic 2020–2022. In substantiating the budgeting mechanism within urban development programs built on a systematic approach at the stage of comparative assessment of recreational expectations based on the modified Vroom model one took into account such indicators as: percentage of recreation costs, variability of prices for recreational services, anxiety associated with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, etc. Within the proposed mechanism recommendations are aimed at justifying decisions regarding the variability of funding in urban programs relevant to the development of recreation and tourism, namely, by increasing the funding from the development budget and increasing control over the implementation of these programs, as well as improving the coordination function in order to prepare the ground for the implementation of “4P” and “people-first” models in recreation and tourism at the municipal level.AcknowledgmentThe paper contains the results of research conducted under the National Academy of Science of Ukraine’s grant Formation and Use of Natural-Resource Assets of the Recreational and Tourism Sphere (0120U100159) and the Nominal Scholarship of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine for Young Scientists-Doctors of Sciences for 2021 (0121U113482).
COVID-19感染快速传播的威胁主要是由大城市的居民感受到的,而在度假城镇的经济中,旅游和娱乐部门受到的影响最大。与此同时,在被迫隔离的条件下旅行和娱乐的需要以及公民康复的需要并没有减少。因此,市政当局应采取适当的组织和财政措施,以维持国内娱乐和旅游服务市场的运作。这项研究的目的是分析城市发展的社会经济方案中为旅游和娱乐提供资金的指标,以便根据研究结果提出建议,以便在适应大流行时期的情况下改善这种资金。这是通过分析乌克兰敖德萨市的发展计划来完成的,其影响延伸到2019年大流行前时期,以及2020-2022年大流行时期。在基于改进的Vroom模型的娱乐期望比较评估阶段,在基于系统方法的城市发展规划中建立预算机制时,考虑了以下指标:娱乐成本百分比、娱乐服务价格的可变性、与COVID-19大流行后果相关的焦虑等。在拟议的机制中,建议旨在证明与娱乐和旅游发展有关的城市项目的资金可变性的决定是合理的,即通过增加发展预算的资金并加强对这些项目实施的控制,以及完善协调功能,以便为在市级休闲旅游领域实施“4P”和“以人为本”模式做好准备。本文包含了在乌克兰国家科学院资助下进行的研究结果,该资助是“娱乐和旅游领域自然资源资产的形成和使用”(0120U100159),以及乌克兰最高拉达2021年青年科学家-科学博士名义奖学金(0121U113482)。
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引用次数: 3
New public management and corruption: Empirical evidence of local governments in Indonesia 新公共管理与腐败:印尼地方政府的经验证据
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-06-07 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.11(1).2022.05
D. Ratmono, D. Darsono
This study is relevant because it examines the determinants of corruption in local governments that have a negative impact on the success of sustainable development. This study aims to examine the effect of New Public Management (NPM), as measured by fiscal decentralization, financial reporting quality and independent audits, on the level of corruption. The sample consisted of 433 local governments in Indonesia based on data from 2011–2017. PLS-SEM was used as a data analysis technique. The results test shows that fiscal decentralization positively affects corruption with a path coefficient of 0.19 and a p-value of 0.004. The quality of financial reporting has a negative effect on the level of corruption with a coefficient of –0.26 and a p-value < 0.001. Hypotheses testing results also show that audit finding positively affects corruption with a coefficient of 0.10 and a p-value < 0.10. On the other hand, follow-up audit results have no significant effect on corruption with a p-value > 0.10. This study concludes that the NPM mechanism in the form of fiscal decentralization positively affects corruption. These results imply that fiscal decentralization needs to be balanced with good governance, among others, by increasing the quality of financial reports and independent audits.
这项研究具有相关性,因为它考察了地方政府腐败的决定因素,这些决定因素对可持续发展的成功产生了负面影响。本研究旨在考察以财政分权、财务报告质量和独立审计为衡量标准的新公共管理(NPM)对腐败水平的影响。该样本由印度尼西亚433个地方政府组成,基于2011-2017年的数据。采用PLS-SEM作为数据分析技术。结果检验表明,财政分权正向影响腐败,路径系数为0.19,p值为0.004。财务报告质量对腐败程度有负向影响,其系数为-0.26,p值为<0.001. 假设检验结果还表明,审计发现正向影响腐败,其系数为0.10,p值为<0.10. 另一方面,跟踪审计结果对腐败没有显著影响,p值为>0.10. 本研究的结论是,财政分权形式的NPM机制对腐败有积极影响。这些结果表明,财政权力下放需要与良好治理相平衡,其中包括提高财务报告和独立审计的质量。
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引用次数: 6
Analysis of financial flows in the budget process of Ukraine under the conditions of structural imbalances of the financial system 金融体系结构失衡条件下乌克兰预算过程中的资金流动分析
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-05-23 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.11(1).2022.04
K. Romenska, V. Orlov, N. Pavlova, Ruslana Kryvenkova, Iryna Shalyhina
Adjusting the balanced movement of financial flows in the budget process is a vital component of ensuring the functioning of the financial system. This study aims to identify and outline possible areas for improving the management of financial flows in the budget process of Ukraine to regulate structural imbalances of the financial system. With the help of ranking and clustering, the analysis and assessment of local budgets based on indicators that characterize the movement of financial flows was carried out. The used methods made it possible to consider the differences in the formation and direction of budget flows of territorial communities and determine the progress of administrative-territorial units. An assessment of the state of financial flows consolidated in the treasury single account of Ukraine was conducted: the dynamics of balance, the volume of loans and repayments to local budgets, and the Pension Fund of Ukraine were considered. The assessment results made it possible to determine the directions of setting a stable and balanced movement of financial flows and levers to regulate the impact of structural imbalances of the financial system related to the management of cash balances of the treasury single account and increase of its liquidity. The volumes of revenues, expenditures, deficit, and borrowings to the State Budget of Ukraine were estimated to determine the conditions that cause imbalances in the financial system. The directions for timely and complete execution of the decisions by state authorities and local self-governments are outlined.
在预算过程中调整资金流动的平衡是确保金融系统运作的一个重要组成部分。本研究旨在确定和概述改善乌克兰预算过程中资金流动管理的可能领域,以调节金融系统的结构性失衡。在排序和聚类的帮助下,根据表征资金流动的指标对地方预算进行了分析和评价。所使用的方法使人们能够考虑到领土社区预算流动的形成和方向的差异,并确定行政领土单位的进展情况。对合并在乌克兰财政单一帐户中的资金流动状况进行了评估:审议了收支动态、贷款和偿还地方预算的数额以及乌克兰养恤基金。评估结果使我们能够确定制定稳定和平衡的资金流动的方向,以及调节与管理国库单一账户现金余额和增加其流动性有关的金融系统结构不平衡的影响的杠杆。据估计,乌克兰国家预算的收入、支出、赤字和借款数额决定了导致金融体系失衡的条件。概述了国家当局和地方自治政府及时和全面执行决定的指示。
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引用次数: 1
Development of financial inclusion from the standpoint of ensuring financial stability 从确保金融稳定的角度发展普惠金融
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-03-01 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.11(1).2022.03
Аngela Kuznyetsova, Іryna Boiarko, М. Khutorna, Y. Zhezherun
Since 2013–2015, financial inclusion has been considered a determinant of economic and social inclusion. Meanwhile, the impact of financial inclusion on economic development directly depends on financial stability. This paper focuses on the development peculiarities of financial inclusion in relation to ensuring financial stability and provides recommendations to Ukraine. The inclusive development theory and gap theory form the theoretical research base, while generalization, statistical methods, coefficient and graphical analysis, comparison and ranking represent its methodological basis. Financial institution development, financial literacy, income level, cashless economy, and public confidence have been justified as the content-forming factors and impact channels of financial inclusion on financial stability. The development peculiarities of financial inclusion are studied by cross-country analysis considering different financial system models and economic development levels. The weak points of financial inclusion in Ukraine are a sevenfold gap between the banks’ assets and non-bank financial institutions and 37% of the unbanked adult population. Moreover, there is a significant gap between the levels of human capital readiness and information security of banks’ digitalization compared to EU banks – by 2.5 and 1.3 times, respectively, and a critically high level of distrust in banks (70%) with a reasonably high share of payment applications users (58%).Further developing of financial inclusion and ensuring financial stability in Ukraine requires improving credit cooperation by transforming its structure from multi-institutional to mono-institutional and introducing the developed indicative tools for monitoring potential financial stability threats caused by technological innovations.AcknowledgmentThe study has been conducted within the framework of Applied Research “Ensuring financial stability of the financial sector of Ukraine’s economy on the basis of sustainable development and in the face of the latest epidemiological challenges” with the financial support of the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine (state registration number 0121U113271). The authors are also thankful to the editors and anonymous reviewers for their useful suggestions and comments to improve the quality of this paper.
自2013-2015年以来,金融包容性一直被视为经济和社会包容性的决定因素。同时,普惠金融对经济发展的影响直接取决于金融稳定。本文重点研究了普惠金融在确保金融稳定方面的发展特点,并为乌克兰提供了建议。包容性发展理论和差距理论构成了理论研究基础,而泛化、统计方法、系数与图形分析、比较与排名是其方法论基础。金融机构发展、金融素养、收入水平、无现金经济和公众信心被证明是普惠金融对金融稳定的内容形成因素和影响渠道。通过跨国分析,考虑不同的金融体系模式和经济发展水平,研究了普惠金融的发展特点。乌克兰普惠金融的薄弱环节是银行资产与非银行金融机构之间的七倍差距,以及没有银行账户的成年人口占37%。此外,与欧盟银行相比,银行数字化的人力资本准备程度和信息安全水平之间存在显著差距——分别是2.5倍和1.3倍,并且在支付应用程序用户比例相当高(58%)的情况下,对银行的不信任程度非常高(70%)。进一步发展普惠金融和确保乌克兰的金融稳定,需要通过将其结构从多机构转变为单机构,并引入已开发的指示性工具来监测技术创新对金融稳定的潜在威胁,从而改善信贷合作。本研究是在“在可持续发展的基础上,面对最新的流行病学挑战,确保乌克兰经济金融部门的金融稳定”应用研究框架内进行的,得到了乌克兰教育和科学部(国家注册号0121U113271)的财政支持。作者也感谢编辑和匿名审稿人为提高本文的质量提出的有用建议和意见。
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引用次数: 19
Impact of public debt profile on economic growth: Evidence from Nigeria 公共债务状况对经济增长的影响:来自尼日利亚的证据
Q3 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2022-02-18 DOI: 10.21511/pmf.11(1).2022.02
John O. Aiyedogbon, F. Zhuravka, M. Korneyev, O. Banchuk-Petrosova, O. Kravchenko
An excessive increase in public debt characterizes the contemporary development of the global economic and financial system. The paper aims to examine the short- and long-run impact of state debt on economic growth in Nigeria. The model was estimated using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing method to co-integration for the long-run investigation. At the same time, the contemporaneous dynamics were explored using an unrestricted error correction model. The data were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria’s statistical bulletins and annual reports, and it spanned the years from 1990 to 2020. The study uncovers evidence of a long-term link between the study variables. In addition, the study finds that all the explanatory is statistically significant. Specifically, economic growth is significant and negatively responsive to changes in external debt by 0.19% and debt servicing by 0.07%, contrary to its positive response to changes in domestic debt and exchange rate by 0.27% and 0.18%, respectively. The paper, therefore, recommends that government may consider more domestic borrowings to foreign borrowings that should only be resorted to when it is indispensable. Moreover, the government should also strive to balance loan servicing and the economic sustainability.
公共债务的过度增加是当今全球经济和金融体系发展的特点。本文旨在考察国家债务对尼日利亚经济增长的短期和长期影响。该模型是使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)边界检验方法估计的,用于长期调查的协整。同时,使用不受限制的误差校正模型对同期动力学进行了探索。这些数据来自尼日利亚中央银行的统计公报和年度报告,涵盖了1990年至2020年。这项研究揭示了研究变量之间存在长期联系的证据。此外,研究发现,所有的解释都具有统计学意义。具体而言,经济增长是显著的,对外债变化和偿债变化的负响应分别为0.19%和0.07%,而对国内债务和汇率变化的正响应分别为0.27%和0.18%。因此,该文件建议政府可以考虑更多的国内借款,而不是只有在必要时才可以动用的国外借款。此外,政府还应努力平衡贷款服务和经济可持续性。
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引用次数: 10
期刊
Public and Municipal Finance
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