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Measuring the suboptimality of dividend controls in a Brownian risk model 布朗风险模型中股利控制的次优性度量
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-06-07 DOI: 10.1017/apr.2023.6
J. Eisenberg, Paul Krühner
We consider an insurance company modelling its surplus process by a Brownian motion with drift. Our target is to maximise the expected exponential utility of discounted dividend payments, given that the dividend rates are bounded by some constant. The utility function destroys the linearity and the time-homogeneity of the problem considered. The value function depends not only on the surplus, but also on time. Numerical considerations suggest that the optimal strategy, if it exists, is of a barrier type with a nonlinear barrier. In the related article of Grandits et al. (Scand. Actuarial J.2, 2007), it has been observed that standard numerical methods break down in certain parameter cases, and no closed-form solution has been found. For these reasons, we offer a new method allowing one to estimate the distance from an arbitrary smooth-enough function to the value function. Applying this method, we investigate the goodness of the most obvious suboptimal strategies—payout on the maximal rate, and constant barrier strategies—by measuring the distance from their performance functions to the value function.
我们考虑一家保险公司通过带有漂移的布朗运动来模拟其盈余过程。我们的目标是最大限度地提高贴现股息支付的预期指数效用,因为股息率受一些常数的限制。效用函数破坏了所考虑问题的线性和时间同质性。价值函数不仅取决于盈余,还取决于时间。数值考虑表明,如果存在最优策略,则该策略是具有非线性屏障的屏障类型。在Grandits等人的相关文章(Scand.Actuaial J.22007)中,已经观察到标准数值方法在某些参数情况下会崩溃,并且没有找到闭合形式的解。由于这些原因,我们提供了一种新的方法,允许人们估计从任意光滑的足够函数到值函数的距离。应用这种方法,我们通过测量从性能函数到价值函数的距离,研究了最明显的次优策略——最大利率支付策略和恒定屏障策略——的优度。
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引用次数: 1
Distributions of random variables involved in discrete censored δ-shock models 离散截尾δ-冲击模型中随机变量的分布
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-05-19 DOI: 10.1017/apr.2022.72
S. Chadjiconstantinidis, S. Eryilmaz
Suppose that a system is affected by a sequence of random shocks that occur over certain time periods. In this paper we study the discrete censored $delta$ -shock model, $delta ge 1$ , for which the system fails whenever no shock occurs within a $delta$ -length time period from the last shock, by supposing that the interarrival times between consecutive shocks are described by a first-order Markov chain (as well as under the binomial shock process, i.e., when the interarrival times between successive shocks have a geometric distribution). Using the Markov chain embedding technique introduced by Chadjiconstantinidis et al. (Adv. Appl. Prob.32, 2000), we study the joint and marginal distributions of the system’s lifetime, the number of shocks, and the number of periods in which no shocks occur, up to the failure of the system. The joint and marginal probability generating functions of these random variables are obtained, and several recursions and exact formulae are given for the evaluation of their probability mass functions and moments. It is shown that the system’s lifetime follows a Markov geometric distribution of order $delta$ (a geometric distribution of order $delta$ under the binomial setup) and also that it follows a matrix-geometric distribution. Some reliability properties are also given under the binomial shock process, by showing that a shift of the system’s lifetime random variable follows a compound geometric distribution. Finally, we introduce a new mixed discrete censored $delta$ -shock model, for which the system fails when no shock occurs within a $delta$ -length time period from the last shock, or the magnitude of the shock is larger than a given critical threshold $gamma >0$ . Similarly, for this mixed model, we study the joint and marginal distributions of the system’s lifetime, the number of shocks, and the number of periods in which no shocks occur, up to the failure of the system, under the binomial shock process.
假设一个系统受到一系列随机冲击的影响,这些冲击在一定时期内发生。本文研究了离散截尾$delta$ -冲击模型$delta ge 1$,该模型假定连续冲击之间的到达时间由一阶马尔可夫链描述(以及在二项冲击过程下,即连续冲击之间的到达时间具有几何分布),当从最后一次冲击到$delta$ -长度的时间段内没有发生冲击时,系统失效。利用Chadjiconstantinidis等人引入的马尔可夫链嵌入技术。prop .32, 2000),我们研究了系统寿命、冲击次数和无冲击发生的周期数的联合分布和边际分布,直至系统失效。得到了这些随机变量的联合概率和边际概率生成函数,并给出了它们的概率质量函数和矩的几个递推式和精确公式。证明了系统的寿命服从阶为$delta$的马尔可夫几何分布(二项设置下阶为$delta$的几何分布),并服从矩阵几何分布。通过证明系统寿命随机变量的位移服从复合几何分布,给出了系统在二项冲击过程下的一些可靠性特性。最后,我们引入了一种新的混合离散截尾$delta$ -冲击模型,当最后一次冲击在$delta$ -长度的时间内没有发生冲击,或者冲击的幅度大于给定的临界阈值$gamma >0$时,系统就会失效。同样地,对于该混合模型,我们研究了在二项冲击过程下,系统的寿命、冲击次数和不发生冲击的周期数的联合分布和边际分布,直至系统失效。
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引用次数: 0
Asymptotic results on tail moment and tail central moment for dependent risks 相依风险的尾矩和尾中心矩的渐近结果
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-05-08 DOI: 10.1017/apr.2022.74
Jinzhu Li
In this paper, we consider a financial or insurance system with a finite number of individual risks described by real-valued random variables. We focus on two kinds of risk measures, referred to as the tail moment (TM) and the tail central moment (TCM), which are defined as the conditional moment and conditional central moment of some individual risk in the event of system crisis. The first-order TM and the second-order TCM coincide with the popular risk measures called the marginal expected shortfall and the tail variance, respectively. We derive asymptotic expressions for the TM and TCM with any positive integer orders, when the individual risks are pairwise asymptotically independent and have distributions from certain classes that contain both light-tailed and heavy-tailed distributions. The formulas obtained possess concise forms unrelated to dependence structures, and hence enable us to estimate the TM and TCM efficiently. To demonstrate the wide application of our results, we revisit some issues related to premium principles and optimal capital allocation from the asymptotic point of view. We also give a numerical study on the relative errors of the asymptotic results obtained, under some specific scenarios when there are two individual risks in the system. The corresponding asymptotic properties of the degenerate univariate versions of the TM and TCM are discussed separately in an appendix at the end of the paper.
在本文中,我们考虑了一个由实值随机变量描述的具有有限个个体风险的金融或保险系统。我们重点研究了两种风险度量,即尾部矩(TM)和尾部中心矩(TCM),它们被定义为在系统危机发生时某些个体风险的条件矩和条件中心矩。一阶TM和二阶TCM分别与被称为边际预期缺口和尾部方差的流行风险度量相一致。当个体风险是成对渐近独立的,并且具有包含轻尾分布和重尾分布的特定类别的分布时,我们导出了具有任何正整数阶的TM和TCM的渐近表达式。所获得的公式具有与依赖结构无关的简洁形式,因此使我们能够有效地估计TM和TCM。为了证明我们的结果的广泛应用,我们从渐近的角度重新审视了与溢价原则和最优资本配置有关的一些问题。我们还对在系统中存在两个单独风险的特定情况下所获得的渐近结果的相对误差进行了数值研究。在本文末尾的附录中,分别讨论了TM和TCM的退化单变量版本的相应渐近性质。
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引用次数: 1
Stochastic comparison on active redundancy allocation to k-out-of-n systems with statistically dependent component and redundancy lifetimes 具有统计相关成分和冗余寿命的k / n系统主动冗余分配的随机比较
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-05-05 DOI: 10.1017/apr.2022.70
Yinping You, Xiaohu Li, Xiaoqin Li
In the literature on active redundancy allocation, the redundancy lifetimes are usually postulated to be independent of the component lifetimes for the sake of technical convenience. However, this unrealistic assumption leads to a risk of inaccurately evaluating system reliability, because it overlooks the statistical dependence of lifetimes due to common stresses. In this study, for k-out-of-n:F systems with component and redundancy lifetimes linked by the Archimedean copula, we show that (i) allocating more homogeneous redundancies to the less reliable components tends to produce a redundant system with stochastically larger lifetime, (ii) the reliability of the redundant system can be uniformly maximized through balancing the allocation of homogeneous redundancies in the context of homogeneous components, and (iii) allocating a more reliable matched redundancy to a less reliable component produces a more reliable system. These novel results on k-out-of-n:F systems in which component and redundancy lifetimes are statistically dependent are more applicable to the complicated engineering systems that arise in real practice. Some numerical examples are also presented to illustrate these findings.
在有关主动冗余分配的文献中,为了技术上的方便,通常假定冗余生命周期与组件生命周期无关。然而,这种不切实际的假设导致了不准确评估系统可靠性的风险,因为它忽略了由于共同压力而导致的寿命的统计依赖性。在本研究中,对于由阿基米德copula连接的组件和冗余寿命的k- of-n:F系统,我们表明(i)向可靠性较低的组件分配更多的齐次冗余往往会产生具有随机较大寿命的冗余系统;(ii)在齐次组件的情况下,通过平衡齐次冗余的分配,可以均匀地最大化冗余系统的可靠性。(iii)将更可靠的匹配冗余分配给不太可靠的组件,从而产生更可靠的系统。这些关于k- of-n:F系统的新结果更适用于实际应用中出现的复杂工程系统,其中组件和冗余寿命是统计相关的。文中还给出了一些数值例子来说明这些发现。
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引用次数: 2
APR volume 55 issue 2 Cover and Back matter APR第55卷第2期封面和封底
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1017/apr.2023.12
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引用次数: 0
APR volume 55 issue 2 Cover and Front matter APR第55卷第2期封面和封面问题
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-05-04 DOI: 10.1017/apr.2023.11
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引用次数: 0
Asymptotic normality for $boldsymbol{m}$ -dependent and constrained $boldsymbol{U}$ -statistics, with applications to pattern matching in random strings and permutations $boldsymbol{m}$依赖和约束的$boldsymbol{U}$统计的渐近正态性及其在随机字符串和排列中的模式匹配中的应用
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-03-28 DOI: 10.1017/apr.2022.51
S. Janson
Abstract We study (asymmetric) $U$ -statistics based on a stationary sequence of $m$ -dependent variables; moreover, we consider constrained $U$ -statistics, where the defining multiple sum only includes terms satisfying some restrictions on the gaps between indices. Results include a law of large numbers and a central limit theorem, together with results on rate of convergence, moment convergence, functional convergence, and a renewal theory version. Special attention is paid to degenerate cases where, after the standard normalization, the asymptotic variance vanishes; in these cases non-normal limits occur after a different normalization. The results are motivated by applications to pattern matching in random strings and permutations. We obtain both new results and new proofs of old results.
摘要本文研究了基于$m$因变量的平稳序列的(非对称)$U$统计量;此外,我们考虑了约束的$U$统计量,其中定义的多重和只包含满足对指标之间差距的某些限制的项。结果包括一个大数定律和一个中心极限定理,以及收敛速度、矩收敛、泛函收敛的结果,以及一个更新的理论版本。特别注意退化情况,在标准归一化后,渐近方差消失;在这些情况下,非正态极限发生在不同的归一化之后。这些结果是由在随机字符串和排列中进行模式匹配的应用程序引起的。我们得到了新结果和旧结果的新证明。
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引用次数: 2
An asymptotically optimal heuristic for general nonstationary finite-horizon restless multi-armed, multi-action bandits: Corrigendum 一般非平稳有限域不安多武装多行动土匪的渐近最优启发式算法:勘误表
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-03-22 DOI: 10.1017/apr.2022.59
Gabriel Zayas-Cabán, Jiaxin Liang, Stefanus Jasin, Guihua Wang
The above lemma is used to prove Theorems 1–2 and Propositions 1–3 in Sections 4 and 6 of [1]. It has been graciously pointed out to us that the bound in the lemma may not be correct in general. The original proof of this lemma uses a combination of linear program (LP) duality and sensitivity analysis results. The mistake is in the application of a known sensitivity analysis result under a certain assumption that happens to be not necessarily satisfied by our LP. Fortunately, it is possible to correct the bound in the above lemma. The new bound that we will prove in this correction note is as follows:
上述引理用于证明[1]第4节和第6节中的定理1 - 2和命题1 - 3。有人慷慨地向我们指出,引理中的界通常可能是不正确的。该引理的原始证明使用了线性规划对偶和灵敏度分析结果的组合。错误在于在一定的假设下应用已知的灵敏度分析结果,而我们的LP不一定满足。幸运的是,上面引理中的界是可以修正的。我们将在这个更正注中证明的新界如下:
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引用次数: 0
The size of a Markovian SIR epidemic given only removal data 仅给出移除数据的马尔可夫SIR流行病的大小
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-03-21 DOI: 10.1017/apr.2022.58
F. Ball, P. Neal
Abstract During an epidemic outbreak, typically only partial information about the outbreak is known. A common scenario is that the infection times of individuals are unknown, but individuals, on displaying symptoms, are identified as infectious and removed from the population. We study the distribution of the number of infectives given only the times of removals in a Markovian susceptible–infectious–removed (SIR) epidemic. Primary interest is in the initial stages of the epidemic process, where a branching (birth–death) process approximation is applicable. We show that the number of individuals alive in a time-inhomogeneous birth–death process at time $t geq 0$ , given only death times up to and including time t, is a mixture of negative binomial distributions, with the number of mixing components depending on the total number of deaths, and the mixing weights depending upon the inter-arrival times of the deaths. We further consider the extension to the case where some deaths are unobserved. We also discuss the application of the results to control measures and statistical inference.
在流行病爆发期间,通常只知道有关爆发的部分信息。一种常见的情况是,个体的感染时间未知,但个体一旦出现症状,就被确定为具有传染性,并被从人群中清除。我们研究了马尔可夫易感感染清除(SIR)流行病中仅给定清除次数的感染数分布。主要关注的是流行病过程的初始阶段,其中分支(出生-死亡)过程近似适用。我们表明,在时间为$t geq 0$的时间非均匀出生-死亡过程中,仅给定死亡时间达到并包括时间t,存活的个体数是负二项分布的混合物,混合成分的数量取决于死亡总数,混合权重取决于死亡的间隔到达时间。我们进一步考虑将范围扩大到未观察到某些死亡的情况。我们还讨论了结果在控制措施和统计推断中的应用。
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引用次数: 0
Thin-ended clusters in percolation in $mathbb{H}^d$ $mathbb{H}^d中渗流中的细端团簇$
IF 1.2 4区 数学 Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-03-10 DOI: 10.1017/apr.2022.43
J. Czajkowski
Abstract Consider Bernoulli bond percolation on a graph nicely embedded in hyperbolic space $mathbb{H}^d$ in such a way that it admits a transitive action by isometries of $mathbb{H}^d$ . Let $p_{text{a}}$ be the supremum of all percolation parameters such that no point at infinity of $mathbb{H}^d$ lies in the boundary of the cluster of a fixed vertex with positive probability. Then for any parameter $p < p_{text{a}}$ , almost surely every percolation cluster is thin-ended, i.e. has only one-point boundaries of ends.
摘要考虑一个很好地嵌入双曲空间$mathbb{H}^d$中的图上的伯努利键渗流,它允许$mathbb{H}^d$的等距的传递作用。设$p_{text{a}}$是所有渗流参数的上确界,使得$mathbb{H}^d$的无穷远点不在具有正概率的固定顶点的簇的边界上。那么,对于任何参数$p<p_{text{a}}$,几乎可以肯定的是,每个渗流簇都是细端的,即只有一个端点的点边界。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Advances in Applied Probability
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