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Prediction Interval for Compound Conway–Maxwell–Poisson Regression Model with Application to Vehicle Insurance Claim Data 复合康威-麦克斯韦-泊松回归模型的预测区间及其在车险索赔数据中的应用
IF 1.9 Pub Date : 2023-03-09 DOI: 10.3390/mca28020039
Jahnavi Merupula, V. Vaidyanathan, C. Chesneau
Regression models in which the response variable has a compound distribution have applications in actuarial science. For example, the aggregate claim amount in a vehicle insurance portfolio can be modeled using a compound Poisson distribution. In this paper, we propose a regression model, wherein the response variable is assumed to have a compound Conway–Maxwell–Poisson (CMP) distribution. This distribution is a parsimonious two-parameter Poisson distribution that accounts for both over- and under-dispersed count data, making it more suitable for application in various fields. A two-part methodology in the framework of a generalized linear model is proposed to estimate the parameters. Additionally, a method to obtain the prediction interval of the response variable is developed. The workings of the proposed methodology are illustrated through simulated data. An application of the compound CMP regression model to real-life vehicle insurance claims data is presented.
响应变量具有复合分布的回归模型在精算科学中有应用。例如,车辆保险组合中的总索赔金额可以使用复合泊松分布建模。在本文中,我们提出了一个回归模型,其中响应变量假定具有复合康威-麦克斯韦-泊松(CMP)分布。这种分布是一种简洁的双参数泊松分布,可以同时考虑过分散和欠分散的计数数据,使其更适合于各种领域的应用。提出了在广义线性模型框架下的两部分方法来估计参数。此外,还提出了一种求得响应变量预测区间的方法。通过模拟数据说明了所提出方法的工作原理。介绍了复合CMP回归模型在实际车辆保险理赔数据中的应用。
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引用次数: 0
Performance Analysis of Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing Based on Decomposition 基于分解的多目标模拟退火性能分析
IF 1.9 Pub Date : 2023-03-08 DOI: 10.3390/mca28020038
M. Vargas-Martínez, Nelson Rangel-Valdez, E. Fernández, Claudia Gómez-Santillán, M. L. Morales-Rodríguez
Simulated annealing is a metaheuristic that balances exploration and exploitation to solve global optimization problems. However, to deal with multi- and many-objective optimization problems, this balance needs to be improved due to diverse factors such as the number of objectives. To deal with this issue, this work proposes MOSA/D, a hybrid framework for multi-objective simulated annealing based on decomposition and evolutionary perturbation functions. According to the literature, the decomposition strategy allows diversity in a population while evolutionary perturbations add convergence toward the Pareto front; however, a question should be asked: What is the effect of such components when included as part of a multi-objective simulated annealing design? Hence, this work studies the performance of the MOSA/D framework considering in its implementation two widely used perturbation operators: classical genetic operators and differential evolution. The proposed algorithms are MOSA/D-CGO, based on classical genetic operators, and MOSA/D-DE, based on differential evolution operators. The main contribution of this work is the performance analysis of MOSA/D using both perturbation operators and identifying the one most suitable for the framework. The approaches were tested using DTLZ on two and three objectives and CEC2009 benchmarks on two, three, five, and ten objectives; the performance analysis considered diversity and convergence measured through the hypervolume (HV) and inverted generational distance (IGD) indicators. The results pointed out that there is a promising improvement in performance in favor of MOSA/D-DE.
模拟退火是一种元启发式算法,它平衡了探索和开发,以解决全局优化问题。然而,为了处理多目标和多目标的优化问题,由于目标数量等多种因素,需要改善这种平衡。为了解决这个问题,本文提出了一种基于分解和进化扰动函数的多目标模拟退火混合框架MOSA/D。根据文献,分解策略允许种群的多样性,而进化扰动增加了帕累托前沿的收敛性;然而,应该问一个问题:当这些组件作为多目标模拟退火设计的一部分时,会产生什么影响?因此,本工作研究了MOSA/D框架的性能,在其实现中考虑了两个广泛使用的扰动算子:经典遗传算子和差分进化。所提出的算法是基于经典遗传算子的MOSA/D-CGO和基于差分进化算子的MOSA/D-D-DE。这项工作的主要贡献是使用扰动算子对MOSA/D进行性能分析,并确定最适合该框架的算子。使用DTLZ在两个和三个目标上测试了这些方法,并使用CEC2009基准在两个、三个、五个和十个目标上进行了测试;性能分析考虑了通过超容量(HV)和反向世代距离(IGD)指标测量的多样性和收敛性。结果表明,MOSA/D-DE在性能上有很大的改进。
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引用次数: 1
Construction and Modification of Topological Tables for Digital Models of Linear Complexes 线性复形数字模型拓扑表的构造与修改
IF 1.9 Pub Date : 2023-03-07 DOI: 10.3390/mca28020037
Aleksandr N. Rozhkov, V. Galishnikova
Building information systems use topological tables to implement the transition from two-dimensional line drawings of the geometry of buildings to digital three-dimensional models of linear complexes. The topological elements of the complex are named and the topological relations of the complex are described by arranging the element names in topological tables. The efficient construction and modification of topological tables for complete buildings is investigated. The topology of a linear complex with nodes, edges, faces, and cells is described with 12 tables. Three of the tables of a complex are independent of each other and form a basis for the construction of the other tables. A highly efficient construction algorithm with complexity O (number of cells) for typical buildings with an approximately constant number of edges per face and faces per cell of is presented. In practice, building designs and their digital models are frequently modified. A modification algorithm is presented, whose complexity equals that of the construction algorithm. Examples illustrate that the efficient algorithms permit the replacement of the conventional focus on the topology of building components by a focus on the topology of the entire building. A set of properties of the original, which are not explicitly described by the topological tables, for example, the orientation of surfaces and multiply connected domains, are analyzed in the paper. An overview of the research dealing with the topological attributes that are not contained in topological tables concludes the paper.
建筑信息系统使用拓扑表来实现从建筑几何形状的二维线形图到线性综合体的数字三维模型的转换。通过在拓扑表中排列元素名称来命名复数的拓扑元素,并描述复数的拓扑关系。研究了完整建筑拓扑表的有效构造和修改。用12个表描述了具有节点、边、面和单元的线性复合体的拓扑结构。一个综合体的三个表彼此独立,并构成其他表的构造基础。提出了一种复杂度为O(单元数)的高效构造算法,适用于每面边数和每单元面数近似不变的典型建筑。在实践中,建筑设计及其数字模型经常被修改。提出了一种修正算法,其复杂度与构造算法的复杂度相当。实例表明,有效的算法允许用对整个建筑的拓扑结构的关注来取代对建筑组件拓扑结构的传统关注。本文分析了原始拓扑表中没有明确描述的一组性质,例如曲面的方向和多重连通域。综述了拓扑表中不包含的拓扑属性的研究进展。
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of the Equivalent Circuit Parameters in Transformers Using Evolutionary Algorithms 用进化算法估计变压器等效电路参数
IF 1.9 Pub Date : 2023-03-03 DOI: 10.3390/mca28020036
Hector Ascencion-Mestiza, S. Maximov, E. Mezura-Montes, J. C. Olivares-Galvan, R. Ocon-Valdez, R. Escarela-Perez
The conventional methods of parameter estimation in transformers, such as the open-circuit and short-circuit tests, are not always available, especially when the transformer is already in operation and its disconnection is impossible. Therefore, alternative (non-interruptive) methods of parameter estimation have become of great importance. In this work, no-interruption, transformer equivalent circuit parameter estimation is presented using the following metaheuristic optimization methods: the genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and the gravitational search algorithm (GSA). These algorithms provide a maximum average error of 12%, which is twice as better as results found in the literature for estimation of the equivalent circuit parameters in transformers at a frequency of 50 Hz. This demonstrates that the proposed GA, PSO and GSA metaheuristic optimization methods can be applied to estimate the equivalent circuit parameters of single-phase distribution and power transformers with a reasonable degree of accuracy.
变压器参数估计的传统方法,如开路和短路测试,并不总是可用的,尤其是当变压器已经在运行且无法断开时。因此,参数估计的替代(非中断)方法变得非常重要。在这项工作中,使用以下元启发式优化方法:遗传算法(GA)、粒子群优化算法(PSO)和引力搜索算法(GSA),提出了无中断变压器等效电路参数估计。这些算法提供了12%的最大平均误差,这是文献中在50Hz频率下估计变压器等效电路参数的结果的两倍。这表明,所提出的GA、PSO和GSA元启发式优化方法可以应用于单相配电和电力变压器等效电路参数的估计,具有合理的精度。
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引用次数: 2
Comprehensive Analysis of Learning Cases in an Autonomous Navigation Task for the Evolution of General Controllers 通用控制器进化的自主导航任务学习案例综合分析
IF 1.9 Pub Date : 2023-03-02 DOI: 10.3390/mca28020035
Enrique Naredo, Candelaria E. Sansores, Flaviano Godinez, Francisco López, P. Urbano, L. Trujillo, C. Ryan
Robotics technology has made significant advancements in various fields in industry and society. It is clear how robotics has transformed manufacturing processes and increased productivity. Additionally, navigation robotics has also been impacted by these advancements, with investors now investing in autonomous transportation for both public and private use. This research aims to explore how training scenarios affect the learning process for autonomous navigation tasks. The primary objective is to address whether the initial conditions (learning cases) have a positive or negative impact on the ability to develop general controllers. By examining this research question, the study seeks to provide insights into how to optimize the training process for autonomous navigation tasks, ultimately improving the quality of the controllers that are developed. Through this investigation, the study aims to contribute to the broader goal of advancing the field of autonomous navigation and developing more sophisticated and effective autonomous systems. Specifically, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of a particular navigation environment using evolutionary computing to develop controllers for a robot starting from different locations and aiming to reach a specific target. The final controller was then tested on a large number of unseen test cases. Experimental results provide strong evidence that the initial selection of the learning cases plays a role in evolving general controllers. This work includes a preliminary analysis of a specific set of small learning cases chosen manually, provides an in-depth analysis of learning cases in a particular navigation task, and develops a tool that shows the impact of the selected learning cases on the overall behavior of a robot’s controller.
机器人技术在工业和社会的各个领域都取得了重大进展。机器人技术是如何改变制造工艺和提高生产力的,这一点很清楚。此外,导航机器人也受到了这些进步的影响,投资者现在投资于公共和私人使用的自动交通。本研究旨在探讨训练场景如何影响自主导航任务的学习过程。主要目标是解决初始条件(学习案例)对开发通用控制器的能力是有积极影响还是有消极影响。通过研究这一研究问题,该研究试图深入了解如何优化自主导航任务的训练过程,最终提高所开发控制器的质量。通过这项调查,该研究旨在为推进自主导航领域和开发更复杂、更有效的自主系统这一更广泛的目标做出贡献。具体来说,我们使用进化计算对特定的导航环境进行了全面分析,为从不同位置出发并旨在到达特定目标的机器人开发控制器。最后的控制器随后在大量看不见的测试用例上进行了测试。实验结果提供了强有力的证据,证明学习案例的初始选择在进化一般控制器中发挥了作用。这项工作包括对手动选择的一组特定的小学习案例进行初步分析,对特定导航任务中的学习案例进行深入分析,并开发了一种工具,显示所选学习案例对机器人控制器整体行为的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Interview: Kalyanmoy Deb Talks about Formation, Development and Challenges of the EMO Community, Important Positions in His Career, and Issues Faced Getting His Works Published 访谈:Kalyanmoy Deb谈论EMO社区的形成、发展和挑战,他职业生涯中的重要职位,以及作品出版面临的问题
IF 1.9 Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.3390/mca28020034
Carlos Coello, Erik Goodman, Kaisa Miettinen, D. Saxena, Oliver Schütze, Lothar Thiele
Kalyanmoy Deb was born in Udaipur, Tripura, the smallest state of India at the time, in 1963 [...]
Kalyanmoy Deb出生于乌代浦,特里普拉邦,当时印度最小的邦,1963年〔…〕
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引用次数: 0
Structural-Health-Monitoring-Oriented Finite Element Model for a Specially Shaped Steel Arch Bridge and Its Application 面向结构健康监测的异形钢拱桥有限元模型及其应用
IF 1.9 Pub Date : 2023-02-28 DOI: 10.3390/mca28020033
Li Dai, Mi-Da Cui, Xiao-Xiang Cheng
To rigorously evaluate the health of a steel bridge subjected to vehicle-induced fatigue, both a detailed numerical model and effective fatigue analysis methods are needed. In this paper, the process for establishing the structural health monitoring (SHM)-oriented finite element (FE) model and assessing the vehicle-induced fatigue damage is presented for a large, specially shaped steel arch bridge. First, the bridge is meticulously modeled using multiple FEs to facilitate the exploration of the local structural behavior. Second, manual tuning and model updating are conducted according to the modal parameters measured at the bridge’s location. Since the numerical model comprises a large number of FEs, two surrogate-model-based methods are employed to update the model. Third, the established models are validated by using them to predict the structure’s mode shapes and the actual structural behavior for the case in which the whole bridge is subjected to static vehicle loads. Fourth, using the numerical model, a new fatigue analysis method based on the high-circle fatigue damage accumulation theory is employed to further analyze the vehicle-induced fatigue damage to the bridge. The results indicate that manual tuning and model updating are indispensable for SHM-oriented FE models with erroneous configurations, and one surrogate-model-based model updating method is effective. In addition, it is shown that the fatigue analysis method based on the high-circle fatigue damage accumulation theory is applicable to real-world engineering cases.
为了严格评估钢桥在车辆疲劳下的健康状况,需要一个详细的数值模型和有效的疲劳分析方法。本文介绍了一座大型异形钢拱桥的结构健康监测有限元模型的建立和车辆疲劳损伤评估过程。首先,使用多个FE对桥梁进行精心建模,以便于探索局部结构行为。其次,根据在桥梁位置测量的模态参数进行手动调谐和模型更新。由于数值模型包括大量的FE,因此采用了两种基于代理模型的方法来更新模型。第三,通过使用所建立的模型来预测整个桥梁在静态车辆荷载作用下的结构模态和实际结构行为,对所建立的模式进行了验证。第四,利用数值模型,采用基于高周疲劳损伤累积理论的新疲劳分析方法,进一步分析了车辆对桥梁的疲劳损伤。结果表明,对于具有错误配置的面向SHM的有限元模型,手动调整和模型更新是必不可少的,并且一种基于代理模型的模型更新方法是有效的。此外,基于高周疲劳损伤累积理论的疲劳分析方法适用于实际工程案例。
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引用次数: 1
Preface to Computational Mathematics and Applied Statistics 《计算数学与应用统计》前言
IF 1.9 Pub Date : 2023-02-27 DOI: 10.3390/mca28020031
Sandra Ferreira
The rapid advances in modeling research have created new challenges and opportunities for statisticians [...]
建模研究的快速发展为统计学家带来了新的挑战和机遇[…]
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引用次数: 0
Treatment Effect Performance of the X-Learner in the Presence of Confounding and Non-Linearity x学习者在混杂和非线性条件下的治疗效果表现
IF 1.9 Pub Date : 2023-02-27 DOI: 10.3390/mca28020032
Bevan I. Smith, C. Chimedza, Jacoba H. Bührmann
This study critically evaluates a recent machine learning method called the X-Learner, that aims to estimate treatment effects by predicting counterfactual quantities. It uses information from the treated group to predict counterfactuals for the control group and vice versa. The problem is that studies have either only been applied to real world data without knowing the ground truth treatment effects, or have not been compared with the traditional regression methods for estimating treatment effects. This study therefore critically evaluates this method by simulating various scenarios that include observed confounding and non-linearity in the data. Although the regression X-Learner performs just as well as the traditional regression model, the other base learners performed worse. Additionally, when non-linearity was introduced into the data, the results of the X-Learner became inaccurate.
这项研究批判性地评估了最近一种名为X-Learner的机器学习方法,该方法旨在通过预测反事实数量来估计治疗效果。它使用来自治疗组的信息来预测对照组的反事实,反之亦然。问题在于,研究要么只应用于真实世界的数据,而不知道真实的处理效果,要么没有与估计处理效果的传统回归方法进行比较。因此,本研究通过模拟各种情况,包括观察到的混杂和非线性数据,批判性地评估了这种方法。虽然回归X-Learner的表现与传统回归模型一样好,但其他基础学习器的表现更差。此外,当非线性引入数据时,x -学习者的结果变得不准确。
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引用次数: 0
Static Output Feedback Control for Nonlinear Time-Delay Semi-Markov Jump Systems Based on Incremental Quadratic Constraints 基于增量二次约束的非线性时滞半马尔可夫跳变系统静态输出反馈控制
IF 1.9 Pub Date : 2023-02-24 DOI: 10.3390/mca28020030
Yang Zhou, X. Ji
This paper is concerned with the problem of static output feedback control for a class of continuous-time nonlinear time-delay semi-Markov jump systems with incremental quadratic constraints. For a class of time-delay semi-Markov jump systems satisfying incremental quadratic constrained nonlinearity, an appropriate mode-dependent Lyapunov–Krasovskii functional is constructed. Based on the matrix transformation, projection theorem and convex set principle, the mode-dependent static output feedback control laws are designed. The feedback control law is given in the form of a linear matrix inequality, which is convenient for a numerical solution. Finally, two practical examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method.
研究了一类具有增量二次约束的连续非线性时滞半马尔可夫跳变系统的静态输出反馈控制问题。对于一类满足增量二次约束非线性的时滞半马尔可夫跳变系统,构造了一个适当的模相关Lyapunov-Krasovskii泛函。基于矩阵变换、投影定理和凸集原理,设计了与模相关的静态输出反馈控制律。反馈控制律以线性矩阵不等式的形式给出,便于数值求解。最后,通过两个实例说明了所提方法的有效性和优越性。
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引用次数: 0
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Mathematical & Computational Applications
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