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The impact of bank performance and economic growth on bank profitability: CAMEL model application in middle-income countries 银行绩效和经济增长对银行盈利能力的影响:CAMEL模型在中等收入国家的应用
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-28 DOI: 10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.17
Zakia Abdelmoneim, Mai Yasser
This paper aims to study the impact of both bank performance and economic growth on bank profitability in 8 middle-income countries from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and MINT countries using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) model. Bank profitability is measured by return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE), net interest margin (NIM) is measured by CAMEL model, and economic growth is measured by gross domestic product (GDP) growth. The sample period ranges from 2000 to 2020, and data are extracted from the World Bank financial indicators and database. This paper is supported by the financial intermediation theory. By comparing both MINT and MENA regions, the results show that in the MINT region, ROA is affected most by both asset management and capital adequacy ratio (CAR), while NIM is affected by asset management, liquidity, and management. Regarding the MENA region, ROA and NIM are affected by CAR only. No relationship was found between ROE and any of the CAMEL determinants in both regions. The results show superior performance for MINT than MENA; strong and active capital, increment in assets, credits, and deposits, and enhancement in bank profitability that is reflected in economic growth progress. Both MENA and MINT regions’ profitability (ROA and ROE) is affected by GDP, so their economies are restructuring very well and their banking industries are expected to grow rapidly.
本文旨在利用广义矩量法(GMM)模型研究中东和北非(MENA)地区和MINT国家的8个中等收入国家的银行绩效和经济增长对银行盈利能力的影响。银行盈利能力由资产收益率(ROA)和股本收益率(ROE)衡量,净息差(NIM)由CAMEL模型衡量,经济增长由国内生产总值(GDP)增长衡量。样本期为2000年至2020年,数据取自世界银行财务指标和数据库。本文以金融中介理论为支撑。通过对MINT和MENA地区的比较,结果表明,MINT地区的ROA受资产管理和资本充足率(CAR)的影响最大,而NIM受资产管理、流动性和管理的影响最大。就中东和北非地区而言,总资产收益率和净收入仅受CAR的影响。在这两个地区,ROE与任何CAMEL决定因素之间均未发现关系。结果表明,MINT的性能优于MENA;强劲而活跃的资本,资产、信贷和存款的增量,以及反映在经济增长进程中的银行盈利能力的提高。MENA和MINT地区的盈利能力(ROA和ROE)都受到GDP的影响,因此其经济结构调整非常好,其银行业有望快速增长。
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引用次数: 1
Comparing the resilience of Sharia and conventional banking to the financial crisis in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations 比较伊斯兰教法和传统银行的弹性与东南亚国家联盟的金融危机
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-27 DOI: 10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.16
None Suripto, Arif Sugiono, Havid Dasuki
This study aims to analyze the comparison of the resilience of Islamic and conventional banking in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Comparison of banking resilience was proxied by the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) and Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) factors, Return on Assets (ROA) and Non-Performing Loans (NPL) with the Multiple Discriminant Analysis test. In this case, the emphasis is placed on the patterns by which Islamic and conventional banking in ASEAN weathered the recent financial crisis during the COVID-19 pandemic. The explanatory and quantitative analysis also used a purposive sample strategy and SPSS to obtain and analyze data from 120-unit analyses of Islamic and conventional banks, respectively. From 2020 to 2021, traditional banks in the ASEAN region, especially in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei Darussalam, were emphasized. Moreover, some data were prioritized regarding the Comparison of Resilience of Sharia and Conventional Banking in ASEAN after the COVID-19 pandemic. The results showed that conventional and Islamic banks had different resilience due to the influence of Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) and Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) factors, but there was no significant difference in the Return on Assets (ROA) and Non-Performing Loans (NPL). Based on the accuracy of the average prediction of 80%, conventional and Islamic bank groups had classification values of 48% and 88%, respectively. This indicated that Islamic financial institutions were more successful than conventional groups in implementing banking resilience.
本研究旨在分析东南亚国家联盟(东盟)伊斯兰银行和传统银行在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间的抵御能力比较。银行弹性的比较采用资本充足率(CAR)和存贷比(LDR)因素、资产收益率(ROA)和不良贷款(NPL)因素进行多元判别分析检验。在这种情况下,重点是东盟的伊斯兰和传统银行在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间度过最近金融危机的模式。解释和定量分析还使用了有目的的样本策略和SPSS,分别从伊斯兰银行和传统银行的120个单位分析中获取和分析数据。从2020年到2021年,重点发展东盟地区的传统银行,特别是印度尼西亚、马来西亚和文莱达鲁萨兰国的传统银行。此外,关于2019冠状病毒病大流行后东盟伊斯兰教银行和传统银行复原力比较的一些数据得到了优先考虑。结果表明,受资本充足率(CAR)和存贷比(LDR)因素的影响,传统银行和伊斯兰银行具有不同的弹性,但在资产收益率(ROA)和不良贷款(NPL)方面没有显著差异。在平均预测准确率为80%的基础上,传统银行和伊斯兰银行的分类值分别为48%和88%。这表明伊斯兰金融机构在实施银行弹性方面比传统集团更成功。
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引用次数: 0
Does executive compensation matter to bank performance? Experimental evidence from Jordan 高管薪酬对银行业绩有影响吗?来自约旦的实验证据
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-25 DOI: 10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.14
Marwan Mansour, Mo’taz Al Zobi, Mohammed Saram, Luay Daoud, Ahmad Marei
The high pays received by executives has gained global attention. This study examines the impact of executive compensation on the performance of Jordanian banks, an area that has not been explored much. The study uses empirical methods for data collection and analysis. Dependent variables include Return on Equity (ROE) and Tobin’s Q performance, while total compensation incentives is the main independent variable. Control variables include bank size, bank age, leverage, and female executives. Through balanced panel data analysis comprising 196 bank-year observations, this quantitative research paper applies Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), fixed-effect, and Generalized Method of Moment (GMM) methods. These methods accurately establish the compensation-performance relationship in the banking sector from 2009 to 2022. The coefficient of determination (R2) for the ROE model: 51.63%, Tobin-Q model: 39.33%. These robust models support the main finding that executive compensation is significantly and positively correlated with operating and market-based performance indicators. Results validate the agency hypothesis, indicating that executives are rewarded for bank performance indicators. Consequently, a one-unit increase in executive compensation leads to a rise of 22.8 cents in ROE and 29.51 cents in Tobin-Q. Additionally, bank size, age, leverage, and female executives positively impact bank performance indicators. A modification of BSIZE, BAGE, LEV, and FEMALE by one-unit results in a proportional adjustment of 26.1 cents, 16.6 cents, 2.07 cents, and 48.6 cents, respectively, in ROE. Additionally, a one-unit alteration in BSIZE, BAGE, LEV, and FEMALE corresponds to variations of 77.6 cents, 56.42 cents, 34.39 cents, and 48.8 cents, in Tobin-Q, all in the same direction.
高管们的高薪已引起全球关注。本研究考察了高管薪酬对约旦银行业绩的影响,这是一个尚未被探索的领域。本研究采用实证方法进行数据收集和分析。因变量包括净资产收益率(ROE)和托宾Q绩效,而总薪酬激励是主要的自变量。控制变量包括银行规模、银行年龄、杠杆率和女性高管。通过包含196个银行年度观测数据的平衡面板数据分析,本定量研究论文应用了普通最小二乘(OLS)、固定效应和广义矩量法(GMM)方法。这些方法准确地建立了2009 - 2022年银行业薪酬与绩效的关系。ROE模型的决定系数R2为51.63%,Tobin-Q模型的决定系数R2为39.33%。这些稳健的模型支持了高管薪酬与经营和市场绩效指标显著正相关的主要发现。结果验证了代理假设,表明高管会因银行绩效指标而获得奖励。因此,高管薪酬每增加一个单位,ROE就会增加22.8美分,Tobin-Q增加29.51美分。此外,银行规模、年龄、杠杆率和女性高管对银行绩效指标有积极影响。将BSIZE、BAGE、LEV和FEMALE分别调整1个单位,ROE分别按比例调整26.1美分、16.6美分、2.07美分和48.6美分。此外,BSIZE、BAGE、LEV和FEMALE每发生1个单位的变化,对应Tobin-Q中77.6美分、56.42美分、34.39美分和48.8美分的变化,且变化方向相同。
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引用次数: 1
Determinants of banking sector development in developing and emerging economies: Unveiling the role of economic growth, trade openness, and financial liberalization 发展中国家和新兴经济体银行业发展的决定因素:揭示经济增长、贸易开放和金融自由化的作用
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-25 DOI: 10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.15
Chedlia Farhat
The determinants of financial development in developing and emerging economies are examined in this article. The long-term relationships between banking sector development, financial integration, trade openness, and economic growth are explored using FMOLS-DOLS panel estimations spanning from 1980 to 2021. The critical significance of economic growth, trade openness, and financial liberalization as fundamental drivers of banking system progress is underscored by the results. To investigate this relationship, two specifications are introduced to measure banking sector development: private credits (specification 1) and the ME ratio (specification 2), which is defined as the ratio of M3 to GDP. In the context of specification 1, quantitative outcomes reveal that a 1% increase in economic growth results in a substantial rise of 0.207% in banking sector development according to FMOLS, and 0.972% according to DOLS. Similarly, a 1% increase in trade openness has a noteworthy positive impact of 0.019% on banking development. Furthermore, the results indicate that financial liberalization contributes positively to banking sector development, with an effect of 0.002%. In the context of specification 2, the impact of economic growth is more pronounced, with a significant increase of 0.3187% (FMOLS) and 0.852% (DOLS). However, trade openness (TRADE_OP) manifests a negative impact of –0.392% (FMOLS) and a positive impact of 0.0162% (DOLS). In conclusion, the critical importance of economic growth, trade openness, and financial liberalization in the development of the banking sector in developing and emerging economies is underscored by the empirical evidence. Prudent economic and financial policies, along with strengthened regulation and supervision, are recommended to foster sustainable and resilient financial development in these contexts.
本文探讨了发展中国家和新兴经济体金融发展的决定因素。利用1980年至2021年的FMOLS-DOLS面板估计,探讨了银行业发展、金融一体化、贸易开放和经济增长之间的长期关系。研究结果强调了经济增长、贸易开放和金融自由化作为银行体系进步的根本驱动力的重要意义。为了研究这种关系,我们引入了两个指标来衡量银行业的发展:私人信贷(指标1)和ME比率(指标2),后者被定义为M3与GDP的比率。在规范1的背景下,量化结果显示,根据FMOLS,经济增长1%导致银行业发展大幅上升0.207%,根据DOLS,银行业发展大幅上升0.972%。同样,贸易开放程度每提高1%,对银行业发展的积极影响就显著提高0.019%。此外,研究结果表明,金融自由化对银行业的发展有积极的促进作用,其效应为0.002%。在规范2的背景下,经济增长的影响更为明显,显著增加了0.3187% (FMOLS)和0.852% (DOLS)。然而,贸易开放(TRADE_OP)的负向影响为-0.392% (FMOLS),正向影响为0.0162% (DOLS)。总之,经济增长、贸易开放和金融自由化在发展中国家和新兴经济体银行业发展中的关键重要性得到了经验证据的强调。建议采取审慎的经济和金融政策,同时加强监管和监督,以在这些背景下促进可持续和有弹性的金融发展。
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引用次数: 1
Interdependence of the banking system development and the economic growth in the context of digitalization: Case study of Azerbaijan and its key trading partners 数字化背景下银行系统发展与经济增长的相互依存:阿塞拜疆及其主要贸易伙伴的案例研究
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-09-07 DOI: 10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.13
Nigar Tagiyeva, Esmira Babashirinova, Gulnara Agabekova, Yashar Damirov, Gulnara Ismayilova
When choosing a country as a trading partner, an important role is played by the speed, convenience, and reliability of banking services (this is primarily determined by the level of digitalization of banking activities), and the general level of economic growth of this country. The article analyzes the relationship between the efficiency of the banking system and the country’s economic growth under digitalization using the example of Azerbaijan and its key trading partners. Calculations were made using data for 2010–2021 based on World Bank, IMF, and UN statistics. Principal component analysis was used to identify the most relevant indicators that describe the stability of the banking system, the level of economic development of the country, and the level of digitalization; the method of structural modeling was used to identify functional relationships between the constructed synthetic generalizing indicators. Calculations showed that the development of the banking system is much more (almost seven times) influenced by the level of digitalization in the country than the level of economic growth (coefficients for synthetic generalizing indicators formed in the process of structural modeling are 0.29 and 0.04). Modeling proved that the focus of reforms aimed at increasing the level of digitalization in the country should be an increase in the number of electronic accounts, electronic payments, the share of the population using the Internet, growth of R&D expenditures, and innovation index.
在选择一个国家作为贸易伙伴时,银行服务的速度、便利性和可靠性(这主要由银行活动的数字化水平决定)以及该国的总体经济增长水平起着重要作用。本文以阿塞拜疆及其主要贸易伙伴为例,分析了数字化背景下银行体系效率与国家经济增长之间的关系。2010-2021年的数据是根据世界银行、国际货币基金组织和联合国的统计数据进行计算的。主成分分析用于确定描述银行体系稳定性、国家经济发展水平和数字化水平的最相关指标;采用结构建模的方法对构建的综合泛化指标之间的函数关系进行识别。计算表明,银行体系的发展受该国数字化水平的影响(几乎是经济增长水平的7倍)要大得多(在结构建模过程中形成的综合概括指标系数为0.29和0.04)。模型证明,提高国家数字化水平的改革重点应该是提高电子账户数量、电子支付、使用互联网的人口比例、研发支出增长和创新指数。
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引用次数: 2
Corporate governance quality, corporate life cycle and investor confidence in commercial banks: Evidence from Nigeria 公司治理质量、公司生命周期和投资者对商业银行的信心:来自尼日利亚的证据
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-23 DOI: 10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.12
Tajudeen John Ayoola, Omoneye Olufunke Olasanmi, Eghosa Godwin Inneh, Adebukola Olubunmi Ayoola, Chris Ehiobuche
A dominant strand of literature advances a positive association between corporate governance quality and investor confidence. However, the corporate life cycle may influence the relationship. Therefore, this study investigated the moderating role of the corporate life cycle in the association between corporate governance quality and investor confidence in the Nigerian banking industry. Corporate governance quality was proxied using a composite measure of board characteristics comprising board size, board meeting, independence, and board gender diversity, while investor confidence was proxied using the price-earnings ratio. Secondary data were obtained from the audited annual financial statements of 12 banks from 2006 to 2021. The study adopted a pooled regression model based on the results of Hausman, and the Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test. The results showed that corporate governance quality positively and significantly impacted investor confidence at the introduction (coef = .318, p = 0.017) and decline (coef = 383, p = 0.011) phases of the life cycle. Banks at the introduction and decline phases of the life cycle were characterized by a narrow resource base, low profitability, and higher risky investments sufficient to attract investor confidence. The study concludes that corporate governance quality enhanced investor confidence at the introduction and decline phases of the banks’ life cycle.
主流文献提出了公司治理质量与投资者信心之间的正相关关系。然而,企业生命周期可能会影响这种关系。因此,本研究调查了公司生命周期在尼日利亚银行业公司治理质量与投资者信心之间的关系中的调节作用。公司治理质量用董事会特征(包括董事会规模、董事会会议、独立性和董事会性别多样性)的综合衡量指标来衡量,而投资者信心则用市盈率来衡量。二级数据来自12家银行2006年至2021年经审计的年度财务报表。本研究采用了基于Hausman结果的混合回归模型,以及Breusch和Pagan拉格朗日乘数检验。结果显示,公司治理质量在生命周期的引入阶段(coef = .318, p = 0.017)和衰退期(coef = 383, p = 0.011)对投资者信心产生了显著的正向影响。银行在生命周期的初期和衰退期的特点是资源基础狭窄,盈利能力低,投资风险高,足以吸引投资者的信心。该研究得出结论,公司治理质量在银行生命周期的引入和衰退阶段增强了投资者的信心。
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引用次数: 1
Do corporate governance implementation and bank characteristics improve the performance of Indonesian Islamic banking? Before-COVID-19 pandemic analysis 公司治理实施和银行特征是否改善了印尼伊斯兰银行的绩效?covid -19大流行之前的分析
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-16 DOI: 10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.11
A. Nurkhin, Kusmuriyanto, W. Widiyanto, Anna Kania Widiatami, Ida Nur Aeni
Islamic banking has existed in Indonesia since 1992. The performance of Islamic banking is interesting for further analysis. This study aims to analyze the impact of good corporate governance (GCG) implementation and bank characteristics on the performance of Islamic banking in Indonesia before the COVID-19 pandemic. Profitability is a measure of banking performance and is proxied by return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE). The research sample consists of Islamic commercial banks that published financial and annual reports between 2011 and 2019. The data collection method used is documentation. Multiple regression analysis was used for data analysis. The results indicate that the implementation of GCG has no significant impact on performance (probability values of 0.425 and 0.420 on ROA and ROE with coefficients of 0.016 and 0.019). The P-value of the non-performing loans (NPF) variable is < 0.001 on ROA and ROE, which means that NPF has a significant negative impact on ROA and ROE. Third-party funds only have a significant impact on ROE with a p-value of 0.046. Meanwhile, the size of a bank has not been shown to have a significant impact on the performance of Islamic banking in Indonesia. Efforts to maintain NPF are critical for banks to achieve good performance (profitability). NPF demonstrates the risk of nonpayment of Islamic bank financing.AcknowledgmentWe gratefully acknowledge the research funding provided by LPPM Universitas Negeri Semarang (contract number: 19.8.3/UN37/PPK.3.1/2022).
伊斯兰银行业自1992年以来一直存在于印度尼西亚。伊斯兰银行业的表现值得进一步分析。本研究旨在分析新冠肺炎大流行前良好公司治理(GCG)的实施和银行特征对印度尼西亚伊斯兰银行业绩效的影响。盈利能力是衡量银行业绩的指标,以资产回报率(ROA)和股本回报率(ROCE)为代表。研究样本包括2011年至2019年间发布财务和年度报告的伊斯兰商业银行。所使用的数据收集方法是文档。数据分析采用多元回归分析。结果表明,GCG的实施对绩效没有显著影响(ROA和ROE的概率值分别为0.425和0.420,系数分别为0.016和0.019);0.001,这意味着NPF对ROA和ROE具有显著的负面影响。第三方基金仅对净资产收益率有显著影响,p值为0.046。与此同时,一家银行的规模尚未被证明对印尼伊斯兰银行业的业绩有重大影响。维持NPF对于银行实现良好业绩(盈利能力)至关重要。NPF证明了伊斯兰银行融资不付款的风险。鸣谢我们感谢三宝垄国立LPPM大学提供的研究资金(合同编号:19.8.3/UN37/PPK.3.1/2022)。
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引用次数: 0
Why non-Muslims choose Islamic banking. Extended theory of planned behavior: a moderating factor of Islamic bank knowledge 为什么非穆斯林选择伊斯兰银行。计划行为扩展理论:伊斯兰银行知识的调节因素
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.10
©. Afief, El Ashfahany, Dinda Ayu, Isman Siti Mutmainah
This study aims to explore the intention of non-Muslims to become Islamic bank customers using an extended theory of planned behavior with Islamic Bank knowledge as a moderating variable. The partial least square structural equation modelling technique was employed for data and hypothesis testing. Using a probability sampling method, this analysis involved 200 non-Muslim Christians as the majority of respondents, representing the majority of non-Muslims in Indonesia. The results of this study show that attitude (ß = 5.390, p = 0.000), subjective norm (ß = 5.488, p = 0.000), and perceived behavioral control (ß = 2.104, p = 0.036) have a positive relationship with intention. Surprisingly, the relationship between Islamic Bank knowledge and intention is indirect, which is mediated through attitude. In addition, the Islamic Bank knowledge amplifies the relation between perceived behavioral control and intention. This study confirmed that Islamic Bank knowledge plays an important role in increasing intention. Thus, Islamic banks should consider educating more non-Muslims about what an Islamic bank is.
本研究旨在探讨非穆斯林成为伊斯兰银行客户的意图,使用计划行为的扩展理论,以伊斯兰银行知识为调节变量。采用偏最小二乘结构方程建模技术进行数据和假设检验。使用概率抽样方法,这项分析涉及200名非穆斯林基督徒作为大多数受访者,代表了印度尼西亚的大多数非穆斯林。本研究的结果表明,态度(ß=5.390,p=0.000)、主观常模(土=5.488,p=0.000)和感知行为控制(坶=2.104,p=0.036)与意图呈正相关。令人惊讶的是,伊斯兰银行的知识和意图之间的关系是间接的,这是通过态度来中介的。此外,伊斯兰银行的知识放大了感知行为控制和意图之间的关系。这项研究证实,伊斯兰银行的知识在提高意向方面发挥着重要作用。因此,伊斯兰银行应该考虑教育更多的非穆斯林了解什么是伊斯兰银行。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of liquidity risk: Empirical evidence from Indian commercial banks 流动性风险的决定因素:来自印度商业银行的经验证据
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-15 DOI: 10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.09
Tisa Maria Antony
Liquidity risk is a significant financial threat that must be handled carefully. Underestimation or mismanagement of liquidity risk may lead to severe financial losses or even bank failures. Therefore, timely and adequately estimating liquidity risk and examining factors that affect liquidity risk are essential. On that account, this paper aims to examine the determinants of liquidity risk for Indian commercial banks from 2013 to 2022. For this purpose, the study has employed a panel data regression model with pooled OLS, fixed effect, and random effect methods and has considered bank-specific and macroeconomic variables. The findings show that liquidity risk is affected by both bank-specific variables and macroeconomic variables. Bank-specific variables, such as bank age, have a negative impact on liquidity risk at the 1 percent significance using pooled OLS, FE, and RE models. In contrast, bank size and bank capitalization positively impacted liquidity risk. However, the operational efficiency of banks was found to have no significant impact on liquidity risk using both the liquid asset to total assets ratio and the loan to deposit ratio. In addition, the results show that macroeconomic variables such as GDP and inflation have a positive impact on liquidity risk. The study’s findings are expected to assist various stakeholders in making appropriate policies, decisions and managing their liquidity risk.
流动性风险是一个重大的金融威胁,必须谨慎处理。对流动性风险的低估或管理不善可能导致严重的财务损失,甚至银行倒闭。因此,及时、充分地估计流动性风险并检查影响流动性风险的因素至关重要。因此,本文旨在研究2013年至2022年印度商业银行流动性风险的决定因素。为此,该研究采用了面板数据回归模型,采用了集合OLS、固定效应和随机效应方法,并考虑了银行特定变量和宏观经济变量。研究结果表明,流动性风险同时受到银行特定变量和宏观经济变量的影响。使用集合OLS、FE和RE模型,银行特定变量(如银行年龄)对流动性风险有1%的显著性负面影响。相比之下,银行规模和银行资本化对流动性风险产生了积极影响。然而,使用流动资产与总资产比率和贷款与存款比率,银行的运营效率对流动性风险没有显著影响。此外,研究结果表明,GDP和通货膨胀等宏观经济变量对流动性风险有积极影响。该研究结果有望帮助各利益相关者制定适当的政策、决策并管理其流动性风险。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic framework for strategic forecasting of the bank consumer loan market: Evidence from Ukraine 银行消费贷款市场战略预测的动态框架:来自乌克兰的证据
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-08-14 DOI: 10.21511/bbs.18(3).2023.08
A. Kaminskyi, N. Versal, O. Petrovskyi, N. Prykaziuk
Accurate forecasting of consumer loan market behavior gives banks a huge potential to optimize their credit strategies by proactively adapting to external changes. This study aims to analyze and predict consumer loan demand, supply, and profitability in the Ukrainian banking sector. Using a systemic dynamic approach, the interplay of five key factors is considered: central bank policies, GDP fluctuations, changing competitive landscape driven by FinTech companies, investment in government bonds as an alternative to loan granting, and severity of credit risk management.The developed dynamic model for the bank consumer loan market in Ukraine offers predictive capabilities enhancing decision-making and strategic planning in the banking sector and can be adapted in open small economies. Within the proposed systemic dynamic model, five scenarios were explored. Compared to the base scenario, a 4 p.p. increase in the key policy rate results in UAH 4.7 billion decrease in demand for bank consumer loans and a UAH 0.55 billion reduction in lending profitability based on the year’s results. Fall in GDP by 6 p.p. leads to a decrease in the supply of bank consumer loans by UAH 6.9 billion and a decrease in lending income by UAH 1.3 billion based on the year’s results. Scenario with the decline of FinTech portfolio by 20 p.p. quarterly leads to an increase in demand for bank consumer loans of UAH 8 billion. A 4 p.p. rise in government bond yields leads to a UAH 17 billion reduction in the supply of consumer loans in the same quarter.
对消费贷款市场行为的准确预测为银行提供了通过主动适应外部变化来优化信贷策略的巨大潜力。本研究旨在分析和预测乌克兰银行业的消费贷款需求、供应和盈利能力。使用系统动态方法,考虑了五个关键因素的相互作用:央行政策、GDP波动、金融科技公司推动的竞争格局变化、作为贷款发放替代方案的政府债券投资以及信贷风险管理的严重性。为乌克兰银行消费贷款市场开发的动态模型提供了增强银行业决策和战略规划的预测能力,并可适用于开放型小型经济体。在拟议的系统动态模型中,探讨了五种情景。与基本情景相比,关键政策利率每便士增加4,导致银行消费贷款需求减少47亿乌克兰格里夫纳,根据当年的结果,贷款盈利能力减少5.5亿乌克兰格里希纳。GDP下降6个百分点,导致银行消费贷款供应减少69亿UAH,贷款收入减少13亿UAH。金融科技投资组合每季度下降20便士,导致银行消费贷款需求增加80亿乌克兰格里夫纳。政府债券收益率上涨4便士,导致同一季度消费者贷款供应减少170亿乌克兰格里夫纳。
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Banks and Bank Systems
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