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Application of Mathematical Models of the Dynamics of the Epidemic Acute Respiratory Viral Infections to Increase the Efficiency of Epidemiological Surveillance 应用流行性急性呼吸道病毒感染动态数学模型提高流行病监测效率
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-12-13 DOI: 10.17537/2023.18.517
V. Leonenko, A.I. Korzin, D.M. Danilenko
Uncertainty in the calculations of forecasts of the spread of epidemic acute respiratory infections obtained using mathematical models, associated with data error and uncertainty in the choice of a model, as well as the lack of verification of modeling results by interdisciplinary teams including epidemiology specialists, prevent the correct prediction of the effectiveness of disease control measures. In this paper, we propose a solution to these problems by using a software package consisting of a family of epidemic models, methods for estimating the error of output data depending on the error of the initial morbidity data, as well as a graphical interface with the possibility of manual correction of the results of automatic calibration and generation of epidemic bulletins. The novelty of the presented study is the methodology for integrating epidemic models into software tools used by supervisory authorities, which allows to supplement weekly bulletins and annual epidemiological reports in semi-automatic mode with a quantitative interval estimation of the error of calculated indicators. The ultimate goal is to provide the supervisory authorities with informative and promptly obtained calculated data for decision-making in the field of infection control.
由于数据误差和模型选择的不确定性,以及缺乏包括流行病学专家在内的跨学科团队对模型结果的验证,利用数学模型计算得出的流行性急性呼吸道感染传播预测的不确定性阻碍了对疾病控制措施有效性的正确预测。在本文中,我们提出了解决这些问题的方法,即使用一个软件包,该软件包包括一系列流行病模型、根据初始发病率数据误差估算输出数据误差的方法,以及一个图形界面,可以手动修正自动校准和生成流行病公告的结果。本研究的新颖之处在于将流行病模型集成到监督机构使用的软件工具中的方法,该方法允许以半自动模式对每周公告和年度流行病学报告进行补充,并对计算指标的误差进行定量区间估算。其最终目的是为监督机构提供信息丰富、及时获得的计算数据,以便在感染控制领域做出决策。
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引用次数: 0
Mathematical Analysis of Aortic Deformation in Aneurysm and Wall Dissection 动脉瘤和壁间夹层中主动脉变形的数学分析
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-12-03 DOI: 10.17537/2023.18.464
A.E. Medvedev, A.D. Erokhin
Aortic dissection is an extremely severe pathology. From the mechanics point of view, the aorta is a multilayered anisotropic reinforced shell, which is subjected to periodic loading under the action of pulse blood pressure. The questions of mathematical modeling of aorta and large arteries dissection are considered. A review of modern mathematical models of aortic and arterial wall structure obtained on the basis of experimental data processing on biaxial stretching of samples is carried out. Mathematical models can be conditionally divided into two classes: 1) effective models, when the internal structure of the wall structure is ignored, but the mechanical parameters of the material "averaged" over the wall thickness are introduced; 2) structured models, when the multilayer (up to three layers) structure of the artery is taken into account with the addition of one to four families of reinforcing fibers. One of the most widely used artery models, the Holzapfel – Hasser – Ogden model, is considered in detail. This model describes a two or three-layered artery with two families of reinforcing fibers. For this model tables of design parameters are given, numerical calculations of arterial rupture and dissection are carried out. The blood vessel is subjected to pulse pressure of blood flowing through it. It is shown that rupture of the inner layer of the vessel leads to an increase in the stress on the outer wall of the vessel. Increasing the thickness and length of the rupture increases the stresses on the outer wall of the vessel. The presence of an aneurysm of the vessel increases stresses twice as much as a vessel without an aneurysm. Splitting of the inner wall of the vessel leads to an increase in stresses on the wall – stresses fall with increasing rupture width for a straight vessel and rise for a vessel with an aneurysm. Stress calculations at the “tip” of delamination showed that the maximum stress is reached at the outer wall of the rupture.
主动脉夹层是一种非常严重的病理。从力学角度看,主动脉是一个多层各向异性的增强壳,在脉搏血压的作用下承受周期性的载荷。讨论了主动脉和大动脉夹层的数学建模问题。本文综述了在对样品双轴拉伸实验数据处理的基础上建立的主动脉和动脉壁结构的现代数学模型。数学模型可有条件地分为两类:1)有效模型,即忽略墙体结构的内部结构,但引入材料在壁厚上的“平均”力学参数;2)结构模型,当考虑到动脉的多层(最多三层)结构,并添加一到四族增强纤维时。其中最广泛使用的动脉模型,Holzapfel - Hasser - Ogden模型,详细考虑。这个模型描述了一个两层或三层的动脉,有两族的增强纤维。对该模型给出了设计参数表,并进行了动脉破裂和夹层的数值计算。血管受到流经它的血液的脉压的影响。结果表明,血管内层破裂导致血管外壁应力增大。增加破裂的厚度和长度会增加血管外壁的应力。有动脉瘤的血管增加的压力是没有动脉瘤的血管的两倍。血管内壁的分裂导致血管壁上的应力增加——对于直血管,应力随破裂宽度的增加而下降,而对于有动脉瘤的血管,应力则升高。在分层“尖端”处的应力计算表明,在破裂的外壁处达到最大应力。
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引用次数: 0
Role of Charged Amino Acid Residues of Plastocyanin in Interaction with Cytochrome B6f Complex and Photosystem I of Higher Plants: A Study Using the Brownian Dynamics Method 质花青素带电氨基酸残基在与高等植物细胞色素 B6f 复合物和光系统 I 相互作用中的作用:布朗动力学方法研究
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.17537/2023.18.434
V. Fedorov, I.A. Volkhin, S. S. Khrushchev, T.K. Antal, I.B. Kovalenko
Plastocyanin is an electron carrier protein in the electron transport chain of chloroplasts, carrying out the transfer of an electron from cytochrome f of the cytochrome b6f complex to photosystem I. Using the method of Brownian dynamics, the process of formation of the encounter complex of plastocyanin and photosystem I of higher plants was studied. The electrostatic properties of proteins were studied, and the most important amino acid residues for their interaction were identified. It was shown that plastocyanin contacts the positively charged alpha-helix protruding into the lumen of the F subunit of photosystem I with amino acid residues of both its “large” (D42, E43, D44, E45, D51) and “small” (E59, E60, D61) the negatively charged regions in 73 % of cases, and only the "large" region in 27 % of cases. A comparison of the study results with previously obtained data on the interaction of plastocyanin with cytochrome f made it possible to identify the role of charged amino acid residues of plastocyanin in the process of complex formation with photosystem I and cytochrome f. When interacting with cytochrome f, a positively charged region located near the small domain of cytochrome f and formed by amino acid residues K58, K65, K66, K187 and R209, attracts negatively charged amino acid residues D42, E43, D44, E45, D51 of the “large” region of plastocyanin, forming an electrostatic hinge contact around which rotation occurs when the final complex is formed. The “small” region of plastocyanin is involved in the stabilization of the final complex. Thus, both in the formation of the encounter complex with photosystem I, and in the reaction with cytochrome f the same negatively charged amino acid residues of plastocyanin are used.
质花青素是叶绿体电子传递链中的一种电子载体蛋白,负责将电子从细胞色素 b6f 复合物的细胞色素 f 转移到光系统 I。研究了蛋白质的静电特性,并确定了它们相互作用的最重要氨基酸残基。结果表明,在 73% 的情况下,质体花青素通过其 "大"(D42、E43、D44、E45、D51)和 "小"(E59、E60、D61)带负电荷区域的氨基酸残基与突出到光系统 I F 亚基腔内的带正电荷的 alpha-螺旋接触,而在 27% 的情况下,只通过 "大 "区域接触。将研究结果与之前获得的有关质体花青素与细胞色素 f 相互作用的数据进行比较,可以确定质体花青素带电氨基酸残基在与光系统 I 和细胞色素 f 形成复合物过程中的作用。当与细胞色素 f 相互作用时,位于细胞色素 f 小结构域附近、由 K58、K65、K66、K187 和 R209 氨基酸残基形成的带正电荷的区域会吸引质体花青素 "大 "区域的带负电荷的氨基酸残基 D42、E43、D44、E45 和 D51,形成静电铰链接触,当最终复合物形成时,会围绕该接触旋转。质花青素的 "小 "区域参与最终复合物的稳定。因此,无论是在与光系统 I 形成相遇复合物时,还是在与细胞色素 f 反应时,都使用了相同的带负电荷的质蓝蛋白氨基酸残基。
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引用次数: 0
Performance Analysis of Cross-Assembly of Metatranscriptomic Datasets in Viral Community Studies 病毒群落研究中元转录组数据集交叉组装的性能分析
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-11-20 DOI: 10.17537/2023.18.418
Yu.S. Bukin, A. N. Bondaryuk, T.V. Butina
We conducted a comparative analysis of individual and cross-assemblies of several metatranscriptomic data sets to study viral communities using several metatranscriptomes of endemic Baikal mollusks. We have shown that, compared to individual dataset assemblies, a Hidden Markov Model-based cross-assembly procedure increases the number of viral contigs (or scaffolds) per sample, the number of virotypes identified, and the average length of scaffolds per sample. The proportion of assembled viral reads from the total number of reads in samples is higher in cross-assembly. De novo cross-genomic assemblies combined with a virus identification algorithm using Hidden Markov Model present the data in a table with the number of reads from different samples for each scaffold. The table allows comparison of samples based on the representation of all viral scaffolds, including those not taxonomically identified, i.e. those that have no analogues in the NCBI RefSeq database. Thus, cross-genomic assemblies allow for comparative analyzes taking into account the latent diversity of viruses. We propose a pipeline for metatranscriptomic data analysis using de novo cross-genomic assembly to study viral diversity.
我们对几个元转录组数据集的单独组装和交叉组装进行了比较分析,以便利用贝加尔湖特有软体动物的几个元转录组研究病毒群落。我们的研究表明,与单个数据集组装相比,基于隐马尔可夫模型的交叉组装程序增加了每个样本的病毒等位基因(或支架)数量、确定的病毒类型数量以及每个样本支架的平均长度。在交叉组装过程中,组装的病毒读数占样本读数总数的比例更高。新的交叉基因组组装与使用隐马尔可夫模型的病毒识别算法相结合,将数据以表格的形式呈现出来,其中包含每个支架上来自不同样本的读数数量。通过该表,可以根据所有病毒支架的代表性对样本进行比较,包括那些未在分类学上确定的病毒支架,即那些在 NCBI RefSeq 数据库中没有类似物的病毒支架。因此,跨基因组组装可以在考虑病毒潜在多样性的基础上进行比较分析。我们提出了一种利用从头交叉基因组组装进行元转录组数据分析的方法,以研究病毒的多样性。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring the Mangrove Based Phytochemicals as Potential Viral RNA Helicase Inhibitors by in silico Docking and Molecular Dynamics Simulation Methods 通过默观对接和分子动力学模拟方法探索红树林植物化学物质作为潜在病毒 RNA 螺旋酶抑制剂的可能性
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-11-19 DOI: 10.17537/2023.18.405
R. Satpathy, S. Acharya
A variety of plant-derived molecular compounds from mangrove plants have attracted attention due to the discovery of their antiviral activity. It has been proven that herbal medicines based on them provide good protection against a number of pathogenic viruses. However, it is necessary to screen these effective antiviral compounds to select those that have fewer harmful side effects. This study aimed to screen several bioactive compounds from mangrove plants that could be used as a viral RNA helicase inhibitor. Fifty-nine compounds were selected from the literature and databases for initial study and screening according to Lipinski's rule of five. The resulting selected compounds were subjected to another round of screening through molecular docking studies with five different pathogenic virus RNA helicase enzymes using the Autodock Vina tool followed by ADMET (absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion and toxicity) analysis. In addition, the best compound-bound helicase-RNA complexes were included in 50 ns molecular dynamics simulations using Gromacs 5.1.1 software followed by molecular mechanics Poisson-Boltzmann surface area (MM-PBSA) analysis. This comparative study predicts that the phytochemical gedunin is an excellent inhibitor of the RNA helicase enzyme of SARS-CoV-2, followed by Japanese encephalitis virus and hepatitis C virus. The results of the study may lead to the development of antiviral compounds against the RNA helicase enzymes of pathogenic viruses.
从红树植物中提取的多种植物分子化合物因其抗病毒活性而备受关注。事实证明,以它们为基础的草药可以很好地抵御多种致病病毒。然而,有必要对这些有效的抗病毒化合物进行筛选,以选出那些有害副作用较小的化合物。本研究旨在从红树植物中筛选出几种可用作病毒 RNA 螺旋酶抑制剂的生物活性化合物。根据利平斯基的 "五选一 "规则,研究人员从文献和数据库中筛选出 59 种化合物进行初步研究和筛选。通过使用 Autodock Vina 工具与五种不同的致病病毒 RNA 螺旋酶进行分子对接研究,然后进行 ADMET(吸收、分布、代谢、排泄和毒性)分析,对筛选出的化合物进行了另一轮筛选。此外,还使用 Gromacs 5.1.1 软件对最佳化合物与螺旋酶-RNA 复合物进行了 50 ns 分子动力学模拟,然后进行了分子力学泊松-玻尔兹曼表面积(MM-PBSA)分析。这项比较研究预测,植物化学物格杜宁对 SARS-CoV-2 的 RNA 螺旋酶有很好的抑制作用,其次是日本脑炎病毒和丙型肝炎病毒。研究结果可能有助于开发针对致病病毒 RNA 螺旋酶的抗病毒化合物。
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引用次数: 0
Numerical modelling of myocardial infarction. II. Analysis of macrophage polarization mechanism as a therapeutic target 心肌梗死的数值模拟。2巨噬细胞极化作为治疗靶点的机制分析
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-27 DOI: 10.17537/2023.18.367
O.F. Voropaeva, Ch.A. Tsgoev
In this study, we explore the mechanism of macrophage polarization and its significance in the development of large-scale infarction with favorable outcomes, using a minimal mathematical model of aseptic inflammation dynamics. The problem is considered in the local approximation and in the two-dimensional non-stationary formulation. The study aims to address the pertinent problem of analyzing general principles governing macrophage polarization in the context of devising therapeutic strategies and refining the "therapeutic window". Key trends are identified to enhance the effectiveness of macrophage polarization for therapeutic purposes, along with providing approximate estimations of optimal macrophage interventions that yield organ-preserving and regenerative effects. Our findings reveal that M1/M2 macrophage polarization results from an additive interplay of at least two mechanisms - cytokine-dependent activation and reprogramming of activated macrophages. Furthermore, our modeling data demonstrate the pivotal role of macrophage reprogramming as a direct response to microenvironmental changes, facilitating favorable disease progression and its outcomes. Moreover, we establish that the process of macrophage polarization plays a crucial role in localizing focal inflammation, leading to the formation of the infarction core within finite dimensions and quasi-stationary structure at the periphery, comprising immune cell clusters. The modeling results exhibit qualitative and quantitative agreement with the experimental data. Importantly, the computational experiments results align with the majority of laboratory and clinical studies, emphasizing the therapeutic potential of macrophage polarization management as a promising treatment strategy. The paper is a follow-up of the previously published work series, devoted to the study of spatial and temporal aspects of the inflammation and death processes development in heart muscle cells.
在本研究中,我们利用无菌性炎症动力学的最小数学模型,探讨巨噬细胞极化的机制及其在大范围梗死发展中的意义。在局部近似和二维非平稳公式中考虑了该问题。本研究旨在解决在制定治疗策略和完善“治疗窗口”的背景下分析巨噬细胞极化的一般原理的相关问题。确定了增强巨噬细胞极化治疗效果的关键趋势,并提供了产生器官保存和再生效果的最佳巨噬细胞干预措施的近似估计。我们的研究结果表明,M1/M2巨噬细胞极化是至少两种机制相互作用的结果——细胞因子依赖性激活和活化巨噬细胞的重编程。此外,我们的建模数据表明巨噬细胞重编程作为对微环境变化的直接反应的关键作用,促进了有利的疾病进展及其结果。此外,我们发现巨噬细胞极化过程在局灶性炎症的定位中起着至关重要的作用,导致有限尺寸的梗死核心和外围的准静止结构的形成,包括免疫细胞簇。模型结果与实验数据在定性和定量上都是一致的。重要的是,计算实验结果与大多数实验室和临床研究一致,强调巨噬细胞极化管理作为一种有前途的治疗策略的治疗潜力。该论文是先前发表的一系列工作的后续,致力于研究心肌细胞炎症和死亡过程发展的空间和时间方面。
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引用次数: 0
Numeric Investigation of Non-Stationary Dust-Containing Airflow and Deposition of Dust Particles in the Lower Airways 下气道非静止含尘气流及尘粒沉积的数值研究
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.17537/2023.18.347
P.V. Trusov, N.V. Zaitseva, M.Yu. Tsinker, A.I. Kuchukov
Within creation of the mathematical model to describe the human respiratory system, we accomplished numeric investigation of non-stationary dust-containing airflow as well as dust particle deposition in the lower airways with the real anatomic geometry based on CT scans. Inhaled air is considered a multi-phase mixture of a homogenous gas and solid dust particles. Motion of a basic carrier gas phase is described using the Euler approach. Solid dust particles are a dispersed carried phase, which is described with the Lagrange approach. The k-ω model is used to describe turbulence. We consider non-stationary airflow during calm inhalation. The article presents calculated flow streamlines for the velocity of particles in inhaled air in the lower airways at different moments. We quantified a share of deposited particles (SDP) with various dispersed structure (between 10 nm and 100 µm) and density (1000 kg/m3, 2000 kg/m3, 2700 kg/m3) in the lower airways; the article provides computed motion paths of particulate matter. Solid particle deposition in the airways has different efficiency depending on particle sizes and density. SDP goes down as their sizes and masses decrease. Particle density mostly influences differences in deposition of micro-sized particles (2.5–20 µm): as particle mass and density grow, SDP in the airways also increases. SDP with their diameter being less than 1 µm amounts to approximately 20 % of all the particles that reach the inlet to the trachea. According to the results obtained by numeric modeling, the greatest share of dust particles penetrates the right main bronchus, predominantly the right middle and inferior lobar bronchi. Dust particles are able to induce diseases of the lungs, pneumoconiosis included.
在建立描述人体呼吸系统的数学模型的过程中,我们完成了非静止含尘气流的数值研究以及基于CT扫描的真实解剖几何结构下气道中的粉尘颗粒沉积。吸入的空气被认为是均质气体和固体粉尘颗粒的多相混合物。用欧拉方法描述了基本载气相的运动。固体粉尘颗粒是分散的携带相,用拉格朗日方法描述。k-ω模型用于描述湍流。我们考虑平静吸入时的非静止气流。本文给出了不同时刻下气道吸入空气中颗粒速度的计算流线。我们量化了下气道中具有不同分散结构(10 nm至100 μ m)和密度(1000 kg/m3, 2000 kg/m3, 2700 kg/m3)的沉积颗粒(SDP)的份额;本文给出了粒子运动路径的计算方法。固体颗粒在气道中的沉积效率取决于颗粒的大小和密度。SDP随体积和质量的减小而减小。颗粒密度主要影响微颗粒(2.5 ~ 20µm)沉积差异,随着颗粒质量和密度的增加,气道内SDP也随之增加。直径小于1µm的SDP约占到达气管入口的所有颗粒的20%。数值模拟结果表明,进入右主支气管的粉尘颗粒最多,以右中、下叶支气管居多。灰尘颗粒能够引起肺部疾病,包括尘肺病。
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引用次数: 0
A Mathematical Model for Evolution of Human Functional Disorders Influenced by Environment Factors 环境因素影响下人类功能障碍进化的数学模型
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.17537/2023.18.t73
P.V. Trusov, N.V. Zaitseva, D.A. Kiryanov, M.R. Kamaltdinov, M.Ju. Cinker, V.M. Chigvintsev, D.V. Lanin
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引用次数: 0
Comparative analysis of Actinobacteria phage-plasmids and their transduction potential 放线菌噬菌体质粒及其转导潜能的比较分析
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.17537/2023.18.323
N.A. Nikulin, S.S. Kiselev, V.V. Panyukov, Y. Lu, A.A. Zimin
The genus Streptomyces is the most extensively studied group within actinobacteria, which are widely used for the production of antibiotics and other metabolites. Streptomyces bacteriophages attract a lot of interest to study phage-host coevolution. One of the probable interactions is a bacteriophage-mediated horizontal transfer of genes encoding bacterial metabolites, which are important for humans. In this study, a search for Streptomyces bacteriophages having capacities necessary for efficient horizontal transfer was performed. Groups of bacteriophages of actinobacteria and their plasmids with relatively long GC-rich sequences containing both genes related to viral morphogenesis and plasmid-associated genes were revealed by comparative genome analysis. In one of these groups, homologs of proteins of DNA packaging into a capsid of Punavirus genus phages, that representatives are capable to perform a horizontal transfer of genes with high frequency were identified. Taking it into account, as well as the peculiarities of their genomic structure, horizontal gene transfer by this group of viruses and plasmids was assumed to occur. Considering the genome length and GC-content, it is thought that these viruses could be useful for producers construction. Moreover, some given examples showing the chimerical origin of phage-plasmids allow suggesting that recombination events between considered phages-plasmids occur at high frequency. New representatives of viruses with low similarity to known phage genomes were also detected among plasmids. A wide diversity of actinobacterial phage-plasmids that is related to their variability and a probable existence of a great number of sequences of this type of viruses in databases were found out.
链霉菌属是放线菌中研究最广泛的一类,放线菌被广泛用于生产抗生素和其他代谢物。链霉菌噬菌体是噬菌体与宿主共同进化的研究热点。其中一种可能的相互作用是噬菌体介导的编码细菌代谢物的基因水平转移,这对人类很重要。在这项研究中,搜索链霉菌噬菌体具有必要的能力,有效的水平转移进行了。通过比较基因组分析,揭示了放线菌噬菌体及其质粒中含有与病毒形态发生相关的基因和质粒相关基因的较长富gc序列。在其中一组中,DNA蛋白的同源物被包装到普那病毒属噬菌体的衣壳中,代表能够进行高频率的基因水平转移。考虑到这一点,以及它们基因组结构的特殊性,这组病毒和质粒的水平基因转移被认为是发生的。考虑到基因组长度和gc含量,认为这些病毒可能对生产者的构建有用。此外,一些显示噬菌体-质粒嵌合起源的例子表明,噬菌体-质粒之间的重组事件发生的频率很高。在质粒中还发现了与已知噬菌体基因组相似性较低的新病毒代表。发现放线菌噬菌体质粒的广泛多样性与其变异性有关,并且在数据库中可能存在大量这类病毒的序列。
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引用次数: 0
Flow in Antroduodenal Part of Digestive Tract: Mathematical Model and Some Results 消化道十二指肠流:数学模型及一些结果
Q3 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.17537/2023.18.t54
P.V. Trusov, N.V. Zaitseva, M.R. Kamaltdinov
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引用次数: 0
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