{"title":"Operations Analysis in Iraq: Sifting Through the Fog of War","authors":"Lieutenant Colonel Robert Shearer","doi":"10.5711/1082598316263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5711/1082598316263","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54242,"journal":{"name":"Military Operations Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"63-71"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2011-08-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70947688","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I n this paper we study a two-period game between a government and a terrorist, where the terrorist decides whether to stockpile attack resources from the first to the second period. Our results show that the terrorist chooses stockpiling when: (a) the following parameters are in intermediate ranges: the government’s asset valuation, the terrorist’s first-period resource, the government’s unit defense cost, and the terrorist’s unit attack cost; (b) the terrorist’s secondperiod resource is small; and (c) the terrorist’s resource growth factor or discount factor is large. We also compare our model with the one that does not allow terrorist stockpiling. For moderate growth factors and secondperiod resources for the terrorist, the terrorist does not prefer the option of stockpiling. The terrorist prefers stockpiling for the more uncommon case that the growth factor for the terrorist’s stockpiled resource is very large and the second-period resource is very small. In contrast, the government always prefers that the terrorist has the stockpiling option.
{"title":"Defending Against a Terrorist Who Accumulates Resources","authors":"K. Hausken, J. Zhuang","doi":"10.5711/1082598316121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5711/1082598316121","url":null,"abstract":"I n this paper we study a two-period game between a government and a terrorist, where the terrorist decides whether to stockpile attack resources from the first to the second period. Our results show that the terrorist chooses stockpiling when: (a) the following parameters are in intermediate ranges: the government’s asset valuation, the terrorist’s first-period resource, the government’s unit defense cost, and the terrorist’s unit attack cost; (b) the terrorist’s secondperiod resource is small; and (c) the terrorist’s resource growth factor or discount factor is large. We also compare our model with the one that does not allow terrorist stockpiling. For moderate growth factors and secondperiod resources for the terrorist, the terrorist does not prefer the option of stockpiling. The terrorist prefers stockpiling for the more uncommon case that the growth factor for the terrorist’s stockpiled resource is very large and the second-period resource is very small. In contrast, the government always prefers that the terrorist has the stockpiling option.","PeriodicalId":54242,"journal":{"name":"Military Operations Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"21-39"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2011-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70947544","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Optimum Selection of conservation reserves: Extensions to multiple Land use","authors":"S. Dissanayake, Hayri Önal, J. Westervelt","doi":"10.5711/1082598316165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5711/1082598316165","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54242,"journal":{"name":"Military Operations Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"65-76"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2011-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70947604","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Probabilistic Analysis of a Country's Program to Acquire Nuclear Weapons","authors":"David J. Caswell, M. Paté-Cornell","doi":"10.5711/108259831615","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5711/108259831615","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54242,"journal":{"name":"Military Operations Research","volume":"16 1","pages":"5-20"},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2011-03-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70947739","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
D. Sommerville, J. J. Bray, Sharon A Reutter-Christy, Raymond E. Jablonski, E. Shelly
Abstract : New human estimates for chlorine inhalation lethality as a function of exposure duration were derived via a review and statistical analysis of existing mammalian lethality data. Such estimates are needed to support risk assessments and casualty predictions involving airborne releases of chlorine. At present, casualty predictions for such releases are at odds with what has been observed historically; the predicted downwind hazard area has often been much larger than what was actually observed. Either the present estimates for median lethal dosages (LCT50) are too low, the currently popular atmospheric transport and dispersion (ATD) models cannot adequately model chlorine releases, or both.LCT50 and quantal response data were analyzed for eight species (mouse, rat, guinea pig, rabbit, cat, dog, goat and sheep), for exposure durations from 8 to 235 minutes. The base 10 probit slope (concentration) was estimated via the weighted average of experimentally measured slopes in mammalian lethality studies. Resulting human lethality (military) estimates as a function of exposure duration were expressed via the toxic load model. General population estimates were derived from the military estimates using the mathematical method of Crosier (2007). Previous human estimates were reviewed and compared to the new general population estimate. The impact of the new estimate was evaluated through a series of transport and dispersion modeling runs for the catastrophic accidental release of 50 tons of chlorine from a tanker car. The sensitivity of downwind hazard distances was also investigated as a function of median lethal toxic load (TL), toxic load exponent and probit slope values.
{"title":"Review and Assessment of Chlorine Mammalian Lethality Data and the Development of a Human Estimate R-1","authors":"D. Sommerville, J. J. Bray, Sharon A Reutter-Christy, Raymond E. Jablonski, E. Shelly","doi":"10.5711/MORJ.15.3.59","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5711/MORJ.15.3.59","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract : New human estimates for chlorine inhalation lethality as a function of exposure duration were derived via a review and statistical analysis of existing mammalian lethality data. Such estimates are needed to support risk assessments and casualty predictions involving airborne releases of chlorine. At present, casualty predictions for such releases are at odds with what has been observed historically; the predicted downwind hazard area has often been much larger than what was actually observed. Either the present estimates for median lethal dosages (LCT50) are too low, the currently popular atmospheric transport and dispersion (ATD) models cannot adequately model chlorine releases, or both.LCT50 and quantal response data were analyzed for eight species (mouse, rat, guinea pig, rabbit, cat, dog, goat and sheep), for exposure durations from 8 to 235 minutes. The base 10 probit slope (concentration) was estimated via the weighted average of experimentally measured slopes in mammalian lethality studies. Resulting human lethality (military) estimates as a function of exposure duration were expressed via the toxic load model. General population estimates were derived from the military estimates using the mathematical method of Crosier (2007). Previous human estimates were reviewed and compared to the new general population estimate. The impact of the new estimate was evaluated through a series of transport and dispersion modeling runs for the catastrophic accidental release of 50 tons of chlorine from a tanker car. The sensitivity of downwind hazard distances was also investigated as a function of median lethal toxic load (TL), toxic load exponent and probit slope values.","PeriodicalId":54242,"journal":{"name":"Military Operations Research","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2010-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70951583","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"MORS Oral History Project Interview of Mr. Brian R. McEnany, FS","authors":"Bill Dunn","doi":"10.5711/MORJ.15.3.87","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5711/MORJ.15.3.87","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":54242,"journal":{"name":"Military Operations Research","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2010-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70951597","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We consider the problem of optimally selecting and specifying satellite payloads for inclusion on a sequence of satellite launches to maximize the total expected utility of a constellation. The satellite bus is constrained by energy, weight, volume, and cost limitations. We formulate the problem as a variant of the multidimensional knapsack problem and provide exact and heuristic solution methods. Exact solutions are obtained for small and moderately-sized constellations. For larger constellations, the heuristic techniques provide solutions within 4% of the best-known integer solution.
{"title":"Optimal Satellite Payload Selection and Specification","authors":"J. Flory, Jefirey P. Kharoufeh","doi":"10.5711/MORJ.15.3.42","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5711/MORJ.15.3.42","url":null,"abstract":"We consider the problem of optimally selecting and specifying satellite payloads for inclusion on a sequence of satellite launches to maximize the total expected utility of a constellation. The satellite bus is constrained by energy, weight, volume, and cost limitations. We formulate the problem as a variant of the multidimensional knapsack problem and provide exact and heuristic solution methods. Exact solutions are obtained for small and moderately-sized constellations. For larger constellations, the heuristic techniques provide solutions within 4% of the best-known integer solution.","PeriodicalId":54242,"journal":{"name":"Military Operations Research","volume":"15 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2010-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70951681","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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