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Effectiveness of safety-netting approaches for acutely ill children: a network meta-analysis. 急性病儿童安全网方法的有效性:网络荟萃分析。
IF 5.3 2区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2025-01-30 Print Date: 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.3399/BJGP.2024.0141
Ruben Burvenich, David Ag Bos, Lien Lowie, Kiyano Peeters, Jaan Toelen, Laure Wynants, Jan Y Verbakel

Background: Safety-netting advice (SNA) can help in the management of acutely ill children.

Aim: To assess the effectiveness of different SNA methods on antibiotic prescription and consumption in acutely ill children.

Design and setting: Systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials, cluster randomised trials, non-randomised studies of interventions, and controlled before-after studies in ambulatory care in high-income countries.

Method: MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science Core Collection, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched (22 January 2024). Risk of bias (RoB) was assessed with Cochrane's RoB 2 tool, the Revised Cochrane Tool for Cluster-Randomised Trials, and the Risk Of Bias In Non-randomised Studies - of Interventions tool. Certainty of evidence was assessed using the Confidence in Network Meta-Analysis approach. Sensitivity analyses and network meta-regression were performed.

Results: In total, 30 studies (20 interventions) were included. Compared with usual care, paper SNA may reduce: antibiotic prescribing (odds ratio [OR] 0.66, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.53 to 0.82, I 2 = 92%, very low certainty, three studies, 35 988 participants), especially when combined with oral SNA (OR 0.40, 95% CI = 0.08 to 2.00, P-score = 0.86); antibiotic consumption (OR 0.39, 95% CI = 0.27 to 0.58, low RoB, one study, 509 participants); and return visits (OR 0.74, 95% CI = 0.63 to 0.87). Compared with usual care, video SNA, read-only websites, oral SNA, and web-based SNA (in descending order of effectiveness) may increase parental knowledge (ORs 2.33-4.52), while paper SNA may not (ORs 1.18-1.62). Similarly, compared with usual care, video SNA and web-based modules may improve parental satisfaction (ORs 1.94-4.08), while paper SNA may not (OR 1.85, 95% CI = 0.48 to 7.08).

Conclusion: Paper SNA (with oral SNA) may reduce antibiotic use and return visits. Video, oral, and online SNA may improve parental knowledge, whereas video SNA and web-based modules may increase parental satisfaction.

背景:安全网建议(SNA)有助于急性病儿童的管理:安全网建议(SNA)有助于急性病儿童的管理。目的:评估不同的安全网建议方法对急性病儿童抗生素处方和用量的有效性:对非住院治疗中的随机对照试验、非随机干预试验和前后对照研究进行系统回顾和网络荟萃分析:我们检索了 MEDLINE、Embase、Web-Of-Science Core Collection 和 Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials(2024 年 1 月 22 日)。我们使用 Cochrane 工具 2、修订版群集随机试验 Cochrane 工具和 ROBINS-I 工具评估了偏倚风险(RoB)。证据的确定性采用 CINeMA 方法进行评估。我们进行了敏感性分析和网络元回归:我们纳入了 30 项研究(20 项干预措施)。与常规护理相比,纸质 SNA 可减少抗生素处方(OR=0.66 (95%CI: 0.53-0.85), I²=92%, 确定性极低;3 项研究,35,988 名参与者),尤其是与口服 SNA 结合使用时(OR=0.40(95%CI:0.08-2.00),P 值:0.86)、抗生素消耗(OR=0.39(95%CI:0.27-0.58),低 RoB;1 项研究,509 名参与者)和回访(OR=0.74 ,95%CI 0.63-0.87)。与纸质 SNA 和延迟使用抗生素相比,不使用抗生素的纸质 SNA 可减少抗生素用量(OR=0.27(95%CI:0.15-0.51,部分 RoB;1 项研究,206 名参与者)。视频 SNA、口服 SNA、只读网站和网络模块可增加家长的知识(ORs 2.23-4.52)。视频 SNA 和网络模块可提高家长满意度(ORs 1.64-4.08):结论:纸质 SNA(口服 SNA)可减少抗生素的使用和回访。视频、口腔和在线 SNA 可提高家长的知识水平,而视频 SNA 和网络模块可提高家长的满意度。
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引用次数: 0
Strengthening general practice will help improve longevity and could reduce health inequalities.
IF 5.3 2区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2025-01-30 Print Date: 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.3399/bjgp25X740757
Richard H Baker, Louis S Levene, Emilie M Couchman, George K Freeman
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引用次数: 0
Memento mori - remember that you must die: but then what?
IF 5.3 2区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2025-01-30 Print Date: 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.3399/bjgp25X740301
Paul McNamara, Craig MacKay
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引用次数: 0
GPs' perspectives on diagnostic testing in children with persistent non-specific symptoms: a qualitative study. 全科医生对有持续性非特异性症状儿童的诊断测试的看法。
IF 5.3 2区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2025-01-30 Print Date: 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.3399/BJGP.2023.0683
Lianne Jw Mulder, Sophie M Ansems, Marjolein Y Berger, Guus Cgh Blok, Gea A Holtman

Background: Diagnostic testing is prevalent among children with persistent non-specific symptoms (PNS), and both undertesting and overtesting have negative consequences for child and society. Research in adults with PNS has shown that GPs use diagnostic testing for reasons other than diagnosis, but comparable research has not, to the best of our knowledge, been conducted in children. Understanding GPs' perspectives of testing decisions in children could provide insights into mechanisms of undertesting and overtesting.

Aim: To investigate GPs' perspectives of conducting or refraining from diagnostic testing in children with PNS and the differences compared with their motives when treating adults.

Design and setting: Qualitative study using semi-structured interviews with Dutch GPs.

Method: We purposively sampled GPs until data saturation. Reasons for conducting or refraining from diagnostic tests were explored using two real-life cases from daily practice. Online video interviews were transcribed verbatim. Data were collected and analysed concurrently by thematic content analysis.

Results: Twelve GPs participated. Their decision making involved a complex trade-off among four themes: medical considerations (for example, alarm symptoms), psychosocial factors (for example, doctor-patient relationship), consultation management (for example, 'quick fix'), and efficient resource utilisation (for example, sustainability). Compared with when treating adults, GPs were more hesitant to conduct diagnostic testing in children because of their higher vulnerability to fearing invasive procedures, lower probability of organic disease, and reduced autonomy.

Conclusion: As in adults, GPs' decisions to conduct diagnostic tests in children were motivated by reasons beyond diagnostic uncertainty. Educational programmes, interventions, and guidelines that aim to change the testing behaviours of GPs in children with PNS should target these reasons.

背景:诊断检测在有持续性非特异性症状(PNS)的儿童中非常普遍,而检测不足和检测过度都会给儿童和社会带来负面影响。对患有持续性非特异性症状(PNS)的成人进行的研究表明,全科医生(GPs)出于诊断以外的原因使用诊断检测,但在儿童中尚未进行过类似的研究。目的:调查全科医生对患有 PNS 的儿童进行或不进行诊断检测的观点,以及与成人动机的差异:对荷兰全科医生进行半结构式访谈的定性研究:我们有目的地对全科医生进行抽样调查,直至数据饱和。通过两个日常实践中的真实案例,探讨了进行或不进行诊断测试的原因。在线视频访谈被逐字转录。数据收集与主题内容分析同时进行:12 名全科医生参与了研究。他们的决策涉及四个主题之间的复杂权衡:医疗(如报警症状)、社会心理(如医患关系)、咨询管理(如 "快速修复")和资源有效利用(如可持续性)。与成人相比,全科医生在对儿童进行诊断检测时更加犹豫不决,原因是儿童更容易惧怕侵入性程序、患器质性疾病的概率较低以及自主性降低:结论:与成人一样,全科医生决定对儿童进行诊断检测的原因并不局限于诊断的不确定性。旨在改变全科医生对PNS患儿检测行为的教育计划、干预措施和指南也应针对这些原因。
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引用次数: 0
Incidence, antimicrobial prescribing practice, and associated healthcare costs of paediatric otorrhoea in primary care in the UK: a longitudinal population study. 英国初级保健中儿科耳疾的发病率、抗菌药处方做法和相关医疗成本:一项纵向人口研究。
IF 5.3 2区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2025-01-30 Print Date: 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.3399/BJGP.2024.0053
Elliot Heward, Eleni Domzaridou, Sean P Gavan, Matthew Carr, Judith Lunn, John Molloy, Rachel Isba, Alastair D Hay, Jaya R Nichani, Iain A Bruce, Darren M Ashcroft

Background: Paediatric otorrhoea (PO) is a symptom-based diagnosis encompassing acute and chronic ear infections that cause otorrhoea in children and young people (CYP).

Aim: To understand the burden of PO on primary care services.

Design and setting: This was a longitudinal population study in UK primary care.

Method: Data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD Aurum), January 2005 to December 2019, was analysed. CYP <17 years of age with otorrhoea were included. Standardised annual incidence and presentation rates were estimated. Poisson regression modelling was used to determine risk ratios comparing sex, age, and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD). A probabilistic simulation scaled-up estimates for the UK population.

Results: The cohort included 6 605 193 CYP, observed over 32 942 594 person-years. There were 80 454 people with incident cases and 106 318 presentations of PO during the 15-year period, equating to standardised annual incidence and presentation rates per 1000 patient-years of 2.42 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.40 to 2.44) and 3.15 (95% CI 3.13 to 3.17), respectively. In the UK this equates to 41 141 primary care appointments per year. Incidence was higher in males, those aged 0-2 years, and those living in the least deprived quintile. Treatment involved oral antibiotics (57.1%, 45 931/80 454), no prescription (28.1%, 22 569/80 454), topical antibiotics (9.7%, 7797/80 545), or a combination (4.9%, 3910/80 545). The cost to NHS primary care is estimated at £1.97 million per year.

Conclusion: To the authors' knowledge, this is the first longitudinal population-based study investigating PO that demonstrates the burden on primary care. Antimicrobial prescribing predominantly follows National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidelines using oral amoxicillin. Aminoglycosides are the most frequently prescribed topical antibiotic despite the concern of ototoxicity.

背景 儿童耳聋(PO)是一种基于症状的诊断,包括急性和慢性中耳炎,导致儿童和青少年(CYP)出现耳聋。目的 了解儿童耳聋对初级医疗服务造成的负担。设计和背景 英国初级医疗机构的一项纵向人口研究。方法 分析 2005 年 1 月至 2019 年 12 月期间临床实践研究数据链接(CPRD Aurum)中的数据。研究纳入了 17 岁以下患有耳痛的儿童。估算了标准化年度发病率和就诊率。使用泊松回归模型确定性别、年龄和 IMD 的风险比。对英国人口进行了概率模拟放大估计。结果 该队列包括 6,605,193 名儿童,观察时间为 32,942,594 人年。在这 15 年期间,共有 80,454 例 PO 发病病例和 106,318 例 PO 就诊病例,相当于每 1000 患者年的标准化年发病率和就诊率分别为 2.42 (95% CI: 2.40-2.44) 和 3.15 (3.13-3.17)。在英国,这相当于每年41,141次初级保健预约。男性、0-2 岁儿童和生活在最贫困的五分之一人口中的发病率较高。治疗方法包括口服抗生素(57.1%)、无处方(28.1%)、局部抗生素(9.7%)或联合用药(4.9%)。据估计,国家医疗服务体系初级保健的成本为每年 197 万英镑。结论 这是首个以人群为基础的 PO 纵向调查研究,显示了基层医疗机构的负担。抗菌药物处方主要遵循 NICE 指南,使用口服阿莫西林。尽管存在耳毒性问题,但氨基糖苷类药物是最常用的局部抗生素。
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引用次数: 0
Crossing the Rubicon: assisted dying in general practice.
IF 5.3 2区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2025-01-30 Print Date: 2025-02-01 DOI: 10.3399/bjgp25X740649
Lily Lamb
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引用次数: 0
How do GPs' new ways of working affect community nurses? A qualitative study.
IF 5.3 2区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2025-01-29 DOI: 10.3399/BJGP.2024.0534
Louisa Polak, Kristian Pollock, Stephen Barclay, Ben Bowers

Background A growing literature examines the way two changes in primary care - the shift towards remote working, and the diversification of practice teams to incorporate, for instance, physician associates and paramedics - affect patient care within the practice. However, little is known about these changes' effects on community nurses. Aim To explore community nurses' experiences of delivering palliative care in the context of GPs' new ways of working. Design and Setting Qualitative study using focus groups. Method Focus groups were conducted on Zoom with community nurses working in the UK. Data were analysed thematically, using constant comparison. Results Community nurses described extending their roles in palliative care. Alongside pride and satisfaction about this, participants raised several concerns and dissatisfactions, some of which they associated with changes in GPs' ways of working. Two dissatisfactions concerned remote working. First, remote communication with colleagues was seen as creating obstacles to nurses' everyday collaboration with GPs, damaging important working relationships. Second, nurses increased their workload by taking the lead in person-centred care where they saw remote provision by GPs as unsatisfactory. Where workforce diversification led to delegating home visits to paramedics or nurse practitioners, community nurses described feeling a lack of the "GP back-up" that many identified as essential for community palliative care. Conclusion When considering and evaluating interventions that change the way GPs work, policy-makers and commissioners should look not only at consequences affecting primary care teams, but also at effects across the complex ecosystem within which these teams operate.

{"title":"How do GPs' new ways of working affect community nurses? A qualitative study.","authors":"Louisa Polak, Kristian Pollock, Stephen Barclay, Ben Bowers","doi":"10.3399/BJGP.2024.0534","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3399/BJGP.2024.0534","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Background A growing literature examines the way two changes in primary care - the shift towards remote working, and the diversification of practice teams to incorporate, for instance, physician associates and paramedics - affect patient care within the practice. However, little is known about these changes' effects on community nurses. Aim To explore community nurses' experiences of delivering palliative care in the context of GPs' new ways of working. Design and Setting Qualitative study using focus groups. Method Focus groups were conducted on Zoom with community nurses working in the UK. Data were analysed thematically, using constant comparison. Results Community nurses described extending their roles in palliative care. Alongside pride and satisfaction about this, participants raised several concerns and dissatisfactions, some of which they associated with changes in GPs' ways of working. Two dissatisfactions concerned remote working. First, remote communication with colleagues was seen as creating obstacles to nurses' everyday collaboration with GPs, damaging important working relationships. Second, nurses increased their workload by taking the lead in person-centred care where they saw remote provision by GPs as unsatisfactory. Where workforce diversification led to delegating home visits to paramedics or nurse practitioners, community nurses described feeling a lack of the \"GP back-up\" that many identified as essential for community palliative care. Conclusion When considering and evaluating interventions that change the way GPs work, policy-makers and commissioners should look not only at consequences affecting primary care teams, but also at effects across the complex ecosystem within which these teams operate.</p>","PeriodicalId":55320,"journal":{"name":"British Journal of General Practice","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143069615","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Practitioner perspectives on symptomatic faecal immunochemical testing: a qualitative interview study.
IF 5.3 2区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2025-01-24 DOI: 10.3399/BJGP.2024.0358
Christina Dobson, Adam Biran, Colin Rees, William Hamilton, Christian von Wagner, John Whelpton, Linda Sharp

Background: Faecal Immunochemical Testing (FIT) is now core to the management of patients presenting in primary care with symptoms of possible colorectal cancer. Patients with a positive FIT (≥10μg Hb/g faeces) qualify for an urgent suspected cancer referral. FIT negative patients are typically managed in primary care or referred through routine pathways.

Aim: To examine practitioners' experiences of delivering symptomatic FIT, identifying perceived benefits, disbenefits and implementation issues, to inform potential future service improvements.

Design and setting: Qualitative interview study with primary and secondary care health professionals, from across the UK, involved in delivering symptomatic FIT pathways.

Method: 30 semi-structured interviews with professionals from a range of specialties. An iterative topic guide informed interviews while allowing freedom to explore novel lines of inquiry. Pseudo-anonymised transcripts were coded and themes identified and developed.

Results: Symptomatic FIT was seen to be beneficial for increasing confidence in clinical decision-making and enriching the pool of patients being definitively investigated for colorectal neoplasia. There were varying views on the impact of symptomatic FIT on workload with the burden of additional workload generally seen to be located in primary care. Concerns about current practice included over-use of FIT, burden of investigations in patients with false-positive results and diagnostic delays, for both cancer and benign disease. Uncertainties existed around management of patients with rectal bleeding, appropriate strategies for safety-netting, and the value of repeat FIT.

Conclusion: Symptomatic FIT is largely seen as beneficial; however, health professionals would welcome further evidence and guidance around optimal application.

背景:粪便免疫化学检测(FIT)是目前基层医疗机构处理有可能患有结直肠癌症状的患者的核心方法。FIT呈阳性(≥10μg Hb/g粪便)的患者可紧急转诊为疑似癌症患者。FIT阴性患者通常由基层医疗机构管理或通过常规途径转诊。目的:研究从业人员在提供症状性FIT方面的经验,确定感知到的益处、弊端和实施问题,为未来可能的服务改进提供信息:对英国各地参与提供症状性 FIT 途径的初级和二级医疗保健专业人员进行定性访谈研究:方法:对来自不同专业的专业人员进行 30 次半结构化访谈。迭代式主题指南为访谈提供了依据,同时允许自由探索新的调查方向。对伪匿名记录进行编码,并确定和发展主题:无症状 FIT 被认为有利于增强临床决策的信心,并丰富接受结直肠肿瘤明确检查的患者库。对于无症状 FIT 对工作量的影响存在不同看法,一般认为额外工作量的负担在于初级保健。对当前做法的担忧包括过度使用 FIT、假阳性结果患者的检查负担以及癌症和良性疾病的诊断延误。对于直肠出血患者的管理、安全网的适当策略以及重复 FIT 的价值等问题还存在不确定性:无症状 FIT 在很大程度上被认为是有益的;但是,医疗专业人员希望获得更多有关最佳应用的证据和指导。
{"title":"Practitioner perspectives on symptomatic faecal immunochemical testing: a qualitative interview study.","authors":"Christina Dobson, Adam Biran, Colin Rees, William Hamilton, Christian von Wagner, John Whelpton, Linda Sharp","doi":"10.3399/BJGP.2024.0358","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3399/BJGP.2024.0358","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Faecal Immunochemical Testing (FIT) is now core to the management of patients presenting in primary care with symptoms of possible colorectal cancer. Patients with a positive FIT (≥10μg Hb/g faeces) qualify for an urgent suspected cancer referral. FIT negative patients are typically managed in primary care or referred through routine pathways.</p><p><strong>Aim: </strong>To examine practitioners' experiences of delivering symptomatic FIT, identifying perceived benefits, disbenefits and implementation issues, to inform potential future service improvements.</p><p><strong>Design and setting: </strong>Qualitative interview study with primary and secondary care health professionals, from across the UK, involved in delivering symptomatic FIT pathways.</p><p><strong>Method: </strong>30 semi-structured interviews with professionals from a range of specialties. An iterative topic guide informed interviews while allowing freedom to explore novel lines of inquiry. Pseudo-anonymised transcripts were coded and themes identified and developed.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Symptomatic FIT was seen to be beneficial for increasing confidence in clinical decision-making and enriching the pool of patients being definitively investigated for colorectal neoplasia. There were varying views on the impact of symptomatic FIT on workload with the burden of additional workload generally seen to be located in primary care. Concerns about current practice included over-use of FIT, burden of investigations in patients with false-positive results and diagnostic delays, for both cancer and benign disease. Uncertainties existed around management of patients with rectal bleeding, appropriate strategies for safety-netting, and the value of repeat FIT.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Symptomatic FIT is largely seen as beneficial; however, health professionals would welcome further evidence and guidance around optimal application.</p>","PeriodicalId":55320,"journal":{"name":"British Journal of General Practice","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":5.3,"publicationDate":"2025-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143043416","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
An ethnography of General Practice inpatient discharge summary management for older patients. 老年患者全科住院出院总结管理的民族志研究。
IF 5.3 2区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI: 10.3399/BJGP.2024.0284
Rachel Spencer, Zakia Shariff, Jeremy Dale, Graeme Currie

Background: Post-inpatient discharge is a risky time for older patients, especially those with polypharmacy and multi-morbidity. General practice care at this time, including the processes for managing hospital discharge summaries, lacks standardisation and is of variable quality. Understanding these processes will support the design of interventions and guidance to improve general practice management of the post-discharge period.

Aim: Understand and visualise how ongoing care for older people after discharge from hospital is organised in general practice, including the processes for managing discharge summaries.

Design and setting: 10 practices in the West Midlands, England took part in a rapid ethnography in which we mapped their systems of post-discharge care.

Method: Data sources included: informal conversations with staff, practice policies and direct observations of discharge summary handling. Fieldnotes and quotes were subject to an interpretivist framework analysis. A systems modelling technique (FRAM) was used to present visual representations of the professional roles working in these complex systems.

Results: Three basic typographies of system emerged based on professional roles: GP led, Pharmacist led and Administrative led. We report on three themes which weave around the FRAM process maps: comfort with demands of administrative role; general practice team dynamics; and interaction with patients.

Conclusion: General practice systems for inpatient discharge summary processing are complex and varied. New roles in general practices are being used extensively, often requiring significant input in supervision by GPs. Our findings highlight safety features of different systems and should help practices understand the advantages/limitations of models they work within.

背景:老年患者住院后出院是一个危险的时间,尤其是那些有多种药物和多种疾病的患者。目前的普通医疗保健,包括管理出院摘要的程序,缺乏标准化,质量参差不齐。了解这些过程将有助于设计干预措施和指导,以改善出院后时期的一般实践管理。目的:了解和可视化在一般实践中如何组织老年人出院后的持续护理,包括管理出院摘要的过程。设计和设置:英格兰西米德兰兹郡的10个实践参与了一个快速人种志我们绘制了他们的出院后护理系统。方法:数据来源包括:与员工的非正式谈话、实践政策和出院总结处理的直接观察。现场记录和引文都采用了解释主义框架分析。使用系统建模技术(FRAM)来呈现在这些复杂系统中工作的专业角色的可视化表示。结果:基于职业角色,系统出现了三种基本类型:全科医生主导、药剂师主导和行政管理主导。我们报告围绕FRAM进程图的三个主题:适应行政角色的要求;全科医生团队动态;以及与病人的互动。结论:全科系统的住院病人出院汇总处理复杂多样。全科实践中的新角色正在广泛使用,通常需要全科医生在监督方面投入大量资金。我们的研究结果强调了不同系统的安全特性,应该有助于实践了解他们所使用的模型的优点/局限性。
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引用次数: 0
Development and internal validation of a diagnostic prediction model for life-threatening events in callers with shortness of breath: a cross-sectional study in out-of-hours primary care. 发展和内部验证的诊断预测模型对危及生命的事件呼叫者呼吸短促:一个横断面研究在非工作时间的初级保健。
IF 5.3 2区 医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL Pub Date : 2025-01-21 DOI: 10.3399/BJGP.2024.0538
Michelle Spek, Roderick P Venekamp, Anne A H de Hond, Esther de Groot, Geert-Jan Geersing, Anna Sm Dobbe, Mathé Delissen, Frans Rutten, Maarten Smeden, Dorien Zwart

Aim: To develop and internally validate a model predicting life-threatening events for out-of-hours primary care callers with shortness of breath.

Method: This cross-sectional study includes data from 1,952 patients with shortness of breath who called out-of-hours primary care between September 2020 and August 2021. Four logistic regression models were developed with life-threatening events as the outcome. We started with a model of age and gender (model 1) and successively added call characteristics (calling at night and someone else calling on behalf of the patient; model 2), symptoms (cough, fever, inability to speak full sentences and wheezing; model 3), and medical history and medication use (cardiovascular and/or pulmonary; model 4). The models were internally validated using optimism correction via bootstrap with 1000 repetitions. Performance measures of discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration (calibration intercept and slope) were determined.

Results: Approximately 17% of callers with shortness of breath had a life-threatening event. Model 3 performed best. This model exhibited good discriminative ability (internal validation c-statistic of 0.764 (95% CI: 0.739 to 0.792)) and was well calibrated. All models had a high net benefit compared to using no model. Models 3 and 4 had a higher net benefit compared with models 1 and 2. As models 3 and 4 were similar in terms of net benefit, the model with fewer parameters (model 3) is preferred.

Conclusion: A prediction model consisting of age, gender, call characteristics, and symptoms holds promise for improving telephone triage of callers to out-of-hours primary care with shortness of breath.

目的:开发和内部验证一个模型,预测危及生命的事件,在非工作时间的初级保健呼叫呼吸短促。方法:本横断面研究包括2020年9月至2021年8月期间呼叫非工作时间初级保健的1952例呼吸短促患者的数据。建立了以危及生命事件为结局的4个logistic回归模型。我们从一个年龄和性别的模型(模型1)开始,并先后添加了呼叫特征(在晚上打电话,其他人代表病人打电话;模型2)、症状(咳嗽、发热、不能说完整的句子和喘息);模型3),病史和用药情况(心血管和/或肺部;模型4)。通过1000次重复的bootstrap乐观修正对模型进行内部验证。确定了判别(c-statistic)和校准(校准截距和斜率)的性能度量。结果:大约17%的呼叫者出现了危及生命的事件。Model 3表现最好。该模型具有良好的判别能力(内部验证c统计量为0.764 (95% CI: 0.739 ~ 0.792)),且校准良好。与不使用模型相比,所有模型都具有较高的净效益。模型3和模型4的净效益高于模型1和模型2。由于模型3和模型4的净效益相似,所以优选参数较少的模型(模型3)。结论:一个由年龄、性别、呼叫特征和症状组成的预测模型有望改善呼叫者在非工作时间呼吸短促的电话分诊。
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引用次数: 0
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British Journal of General Practice
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