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Leveraging Joint Sparsity in Hierarchical Bayesian Learning 利用层次贝叶斯学习中的联合稀疏性
IF 2 3区 工程技术 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.1137/23m156255x
Jan Glaubitz, Anne Gelb
SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 12, Issue 2, Page 442-472, June 2024.
Abstract.We present a hierarchical Bayesian learning approach to infer jointly sparse parameter vectors from multiple measurement vectors. Our model uses separate conditionally Gaussian priors for each parameter vector and common gamma-distributed hyperparameters to enforce joint sparsity. The resulting joint-sparsity-promoting priors are combined with existing Bayesian inference methods to generate a new family of algorithms. Our numerical experiments, which include a multicoil magnetic resonance imaging application, demonstrate that our new approach consistently outperforms commonly used hierarchical Bayesian methods.
SIAM/ASA 不确定性量化期刊》,第 12 卷,第 2 期,第 442-472 页,2024 年 6 月。 摘要:我们提出了一种分层贝叶斯学习方法,用于从多个测量向量中联合推断稀疏参数向量。我们的模型对每个参数向量使用单独的条件高斯前验,并使用共同的伽玛分布超参数来执行联合稀疏性。由此产生的联合稀疏性促进先验与现有的贝叶斯推理方法相结合,产生了一系列新算法。我们的数值实验(包括多线圈磁共振成像应用)表明,我们的新方法始终优于常用的分层贝叶斯方法。
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引用次数: 0
Ensemble Kalman Filters with Resampling 带有重采样功能的集合卡尔曼滤波器
IF 2 3区 工程技术 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.1137/23m1594935
Omar Al-Ghattas, Jiajun Bao, Daniel Sanz-Alonso
SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 12, Issue 2, Page 411-441, June 2024.
Abstract.Filtering is concerned with online estimation of the state of a dynamical system from partial and noisy observations. In applications where the state of the system is high dimensional, ensemble Kalman filters are often the method of choice. These algorithms rely on an ensemble of interacting particles to sequentially estimate the state as new observations become available. Despite the practical success of ensemble Kalman filters, theoretical understanding is hindered by the intricate dependence structure of the interacting particles. This paper investigates ensemble Kalman filters that incorporate an additional resampling step to break the dependency between particles. The new algorithm is amenable to a theoretical analysis that extends and improves upon those available for filters without resampling, while also performing well in numerical examples.
SIAM/ASA 不确定性量化期刊》,第 12 卷第 2 期,第 411-441 页,2024 年 6 月。 摘要.滤波涉及从部分和噪声观测中在线估计动态系统的状态。在系统状态为高维的应用中,集合卡尔曼滤波器通常是首选方法。这些算法依赖于相互作用的粒子集合,在获得新的观测数据时依次对状态进行估计。尽管集合卡尔曼滤波器在实践中取得了成功,但由于相互作用粒子的依赖结构错综复杂,理论上的理解受到了阻碍。本文研究的集合卡尔曼滤波器包含一个额外的重采样步骤,以打破粒子之间的依赖关系。新算法可用于理论分析,扩展并改进了不带重采样滤波器的理论分析,同时在数值示例中表现良好。
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引用次数: 0
Nonparametric Estimation for Independent and Identically Distributed Stochastic Differential Equations with Space-Time Dependent Coefficients 具有时空相关系数的独立同分布随机微分方程的非参数估计
IF 2 3区 工程技术 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-05-21 DOI: 10.1137/23m1581662
Fabienne Comte, Valentine Genon-Catalot
SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 12, Issue 2, Page 377-410, June 2024.
Abstract. We consider [math] independent and identically distributed one-dimensional inhomogeneous diffusion processes [math] with drift [math] and diffusion coefficient [math], where [math] and the functions [math] and [math] are known. Our concern is the nonparametric estimation of the [math]-dimensional unknown function [math] from the continuous observation of the sample paths [math] throughout a fixed time interval [math]. A collection of projection estimators belonging to a product of finite-dimensional subspaces of [math] is built. The [math]-risk is defined by the expectation of either an empirical norm or a deterministic norm fitted to the problem. Rates of convergence for large [math] are discussed. A data-driven choice of the dimensions of the projection spaces is proposed. The theoretical results are illustrated by numerical experiments on simulated data.
SIAM/ASA 不确定性量化期刊》第 12 卷第 2 期第 377-410 页,2024 年 6 月。 摘要。我们考虑具有漂移[math]和扩散系数[math]的[math]独立同分布一维非均质扩散过程[math],其中[math]和[math]函数[math]和[math]是已知的。我们关心的是如何从对固定时间间隔[math]内样本路径[math]的连续观测中,对[math]维未知函数[math]进行非参数估计。我们建立了属于[math]有限维子空间乘积的投影估计器集合。[math]风险由经验规范或与问题相匹配的确定性规范的期望值定义。讨论了大[math]的收敛速率。提出了投影空间维数的数据驱动选择。模拟数据的数值实验说明了理论结果。
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引用次数: 0
Wavelet-Based Density Estimation for Persistent Homology 基于小波的持久同源性密度估计
IF 2 3区 工程技术 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-04-18 DOI: 10.1137/23m1573811
Konstantin Häberle, Barbara Bravi, Anthea Monod
SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 12, Issue 2, Page 347-376, June 2024.
Abstract. Persistent homology is a central methodology in topological data analysis that has been successfully implemented in many fields and is becoming increasingly popular and relevant. The output of persistent homology is a persistence diagram—a multiset of points supported on the upper half-plane—that is often used as a statistical summary of the topological features of data. In this paper, we study the random nature of persistent homology and estimate the density of expected persistence diagrams from observations using wavelets; we show that our wavelet-based estimator is optimal. Furthermore, we propose an estimator that offers a sparse representation of the expected persistence diagram that achieves near-optimality. We demonstrate the utility of our contributions in a machine learning task in the context of dynamical systems.
SIAM/ASA 不确定性量化期刊》第 12 卷第 2 期第 347-376 页,2024 年 6 月。 摘要持久同调是拓扑数据分析的一种核心方法,已在许多领域成功应用,并变得越来越流行和相关。持久同调的输出结果是持久图--支持上半平面的多点集合--经常被用作数据拓扑特征的统计摘要。在本文中,我们研究了持久同调的随机性,并使用小波从观测结果中估计了预期持久图的密度;我们证明了基于小波的估计器是最优的。此外,我们还提出了一种估算器,该估算器提供了预期持久性图的稀疏表示,接近最优。我们展示了我们的贡献在动态系统背景下的机器学习任务中的实用性。
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引用次数: 0
Nonasymptotic Bounds for Suboptimal Importance Sampling 次优重要性取样的非渐近边界
IF 2 3区 工程技术 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: 10.1137/21m1427760
Carsten Hartmann, Lorenz Richter
SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 12, Issue 2, Page 309-346, June 2024.
Abstract. Importance sampling is a popular variance reduction method for Monte Carlo estimation, where an evident question is how to design good proposal distributions. While in most cases optimal (zero-variance) estimators are theoretically possible, in practice only suboptimal proposal distributions are available and it can often be observed numerically that those can reduce statistical performance significantly, leading to large relative errors and therefore counteracting the original intention. Previous analysis on importance sampling has often focused on asymptotic arguments that work well in a large deviations regime. In this article, we provide lower and upper bounds on the relative error in a nonasymptotic setting. They depend on the deviation of the actual proposal from optimality, and we thus identify potential robustness issues that importance sampling may have, especially in high dimensions. We particularly focus on path sampling problems for diffusion processes with nonvanishing noise, for which generating good proposals comes with additional technical challenges. We provide numerous numerical examples that support our findings and demonstrate the applicability of the derived bounds.
SIAM/ASA 不确定性量化期刊》第 12 卷第 2 期第 309-346 页,2024 年 6 月。 摘要。重要性抽样是蒙特卡罗估计中一种流行的降低方差的方法,其中一个明显的问题是如何设计好的提议分布。虽然在大多数情况下,理论上最优(零方差)估计器是可能的,但在实践中只有次优的提议分布可供选择,而且经常可以从数值上观察到,这些提议分布会显著降低统计性能,导致较大的相对误差,从而与初衷背道而驰。以往对重要性采样的分析通常侧重于在大偏差机制下运行良好的渐进论证。在本文中,我们提供了非渐近环境下相对误差的下限和上限。它们取决于实际方案与最优性的偏差,因此我们发现了重要性抽样可能存在的潜在稳健性问题,尤其是在高维度下。我们尤其关注具有非消失噪声的扩散过程的路径采样问题,因为在这种情况下,生成好的提议会面临额外的技术挑战。我们提供了大量的数值示例来支持我们的发现,并证明了推导边界的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
Computing Statistical Moments Via Tensorization of Polynomial Chaos Expansions 通过多项式混沌扩展张量计算统计矩
IF 2 3区 工程技术 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-04-15 DOI: 10.1137/23m155428x
Rafael Ballester-Ripoll
SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 12, Issue 2, Page 289-308, June 2024.
Abstract. We present an algorithm for estimating higher-order statistical moments of multidimensional functions expressed as polynomial chaos expansions (PCE). The algorithm starts by decomposing the PCE into a low-rank tensor network using a combination of tensor-train and Tucker decompositions. It then efficiently calculates the desired moments in the compressed tensor domain, leveraging the highly linear structure of the network. Using three benchmark engineering functions, we demonstrate that our approach offers substantial speed improvements over alternative algorithms while maintaining a minimal and adjustable approximation error. Additionally, our method can calculate moments even when the input variable distribution is altered, incurring only a small additional computational cost and without requiring retraining of the regressor.
SIAM/ASA 不确定性量化期刊》第 12 卷第 2 期第 289-308 页,2024 年 6 月。 摘要。我们提出了一种估计以多项式混沌展开(PCE)表示的多维函数的高阶统计矩的算法。该算法首先使用张量-训练和塔克分解相结合的方法,将 PCE 分解为低秩张量网络。然后,该算法利用网络的高度线性结构,在压缩张量域中高效计算所需的矩。我们利用三个基准工程函数证明,与其他算法相比,我们的方法大大提高了速度,同时保持了最小的可调节近似误差。此外,即使输入变量的分布发生变化,我们的方法也能计算矩,只需少量额外计算成本,且无需重新训练回归器。
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引用次数: 0
Calculation of Epidemic First Passage and Peak Time Probability Distributions 流行病首次传播和高峰时间概率分布的计算
IF 2 3区 工程技术 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1137/23m1548049
Jacob Curran-Sebastian, Lorenzo Pellis, Ian Hall, Thomas House
SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 12, Issue 2, Page 242-261, June 2024.
Abstract. Understanding the timing of the peak of a disease outbreak forms an important part of epidemic forecasting. In many cases, such information is essential for planning increased hospital bed demand and for designing of public health interventions. The time taken for an outbreak to become large is inherently stochastic and, therefore, uncertain, but after a sufficient number of infections has been reached the subsequent dynamics can be modeled accurately using ordinary differential equations. Here, we present analytical and numerical methods for approximating the time at which a stochastic model of a disease outbreak reaches a large number of cases and for quantifying the uncertainty arising from demographic stochasticity around that time. We then project this uncertainty forwards in time using an ordinary differential equation model in order to obtain a distribution for the peak timing of the epidemic that agrees closely with large simulations but that, for error tolerances relevant to most realistic applications, requires a fraction of the computational cost of full Monte Carlo approaches.
SIAM/ASA 不确定性量化期刊》第 12 卷第 2 期第 242-261 页,2024 年 6 月。 摘要了解疾病爆发高峰期的时间是流行病预测的重要组成部分。在许多情况下,这些信息对于规划增加的医院床位需求和设计公共卫生干预措施至关重要。疫情大规模爆发所需的时间本身是随机的,因此也是不确定的,但在达到足够的感染人数后,就可以使用常微分方程对随后的动态进行精确建模。在此,我们提出了分析和数值方法,用于近似计算疾病爆发的随机模型达到大量病例的时间,并量化该时间前后人口随机性带来的不确定性。然后,我们使用常微分方程模型将这种不确定性向前推算,以获得与大型模拟结果密切吻合的流行病高峰时间分布,但对于与大多数现实应用相关的误差容限,所需的计算成本仅为蒙特卡罗方法的一小部分。
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引用次数: 0
A Method of Moments Estimator for Interacting Particle Systems and their Mean Field Limit 相互作用粒子系统及其平均场极限的矩估计方法
IF 2 3区 工程技术 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1137/22m153848x
Grigorios A. Pavliotis, Andrea Zanoni
SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 12, Issue 2, Page 262-288, June 2024.
Abstract.We study the problem of learning unknown parameters in stochastic interacting particle systems with polynomial drift, interaction, and diffusion functions from the path of one single particle in the system. Our estimator is obtained by solving a linear system which is constructed by imposing appropriate conditions on the moments of the invariant distribution of the mean field limit and on the quadratic variation of the process. Our approach is easy to implement as it only requires the approximation of the moments via the ergodic theorem and the solution of a low-dimensional linear system. Moreover, we prove that our estimator is asymptotically unbiased in the limits of infinite data and infinite number of particles (mean field limit). In addition, we present several numerical experiments that validate the theoretical analysis and show the effectiveness of our methodology to accurately infer parameters in systems of interacting particles.
SIAM/ASA 不确定性量化期刊》,第 12 卷第 2 期,第 262-288 页,2024 年 6 月。 摘要:我们研究了在具有多项式漂移、相互作用和扩散函数的随机相互作用粒子系统中,从系统中单个粒子的路径学习未知参数的问题。我们的估计器是通过求解一个线性系统得到的,该系统是通过对均值场极限不变分布的矩和过程的二次变化施加适当条件而构建的。我们的方法很容易实现,因为它只需要通过遍历定理和低维线性系统的求解来近似矩。此外,我们还证明了我们的估计器在无限数据和无限粒子数(平均场极限)的限制下是渐进无偏的。此外,我们还介绍了几个数值实验,这些实验验证了理论分析,并展示了我们的方法在精确推断相互作用粒子系统参数方面的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Subsampling of Parametric Models with Bifidelity Boosting 利用双保真度提升对参数模型进行子采样
IF 2 3区 工程技术 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1137/22m1524989
Nuojin Cheng, Osman Asif Malik, Yiming Xu, Stephen Becker, Alireza Doostan, Akil Narayan
SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 12, Issue 2, Page 213-241, June 2024.
Abstract.Least squares regression is a ubiquitous tool for building emulators (a.k.a. surrogate models) of problems across science and engineering for purposes such as design space exploration and uncertainty quantification. When the regression data are generated using an experimental design process (e.g., a quadrature grid) involving computationally expensive models, or when the data size is large, sketching techniques have shown promise at reducing the cost of the construction of the regression model while ensuring accuracy comparable to that of the full data. However, random sketching strategies, such as those based on leverage scores, lead to regression errors that are random and may exhibit large variability. To mitigate this issue, we present a novel boosting approach that leverages cheaper, lower-fidelity data of the problem at hand to identify the best sketch among a set of candidate sketches. This in turn specifies the sketch of the intended high-fidelity model and the associated data. We provide theoretical analyses of this bifidelity boosting (BFB) approach and discuss the conditions the low- and high-fidelity data must satisfy for a successful boosting. In doing so, we derive a bound on the residual norm of the BFB sketched solution relating it to its ideal, but computationally expensive, high-fidelity boosted counterpart. Empirical results on both manufactured and PDE data corroborate the theoretical analyses and illustrate the efficacy of the BFB solution in reducing the regression error, as compared to the nonboosted solution.
SIAM/ASA 不确定性量化期刊》第 12 卷第 2 期第 213-241 页,2024 年 6 月。摘要.最小二乘回归是一种无处不在的工具,用于建立科学和工程问题的模拟器(又称代用模型),以实现设计空间探索和不确定性量化等目的。当回归数据是通过涉及计算昂贵的模型的实验设计过程(如正交网格)生成时,或者当数据量较大时,草图技术在降低回归模型构建成本的同时,还能确保与完整数据相当的精度。然而,随机草图策略,如基于杠杆分数的草图策略,会导致随机回归误差,并可能表现出很大的变异性。为了缓解这一问题,我们提出了一种新颖的提升方法,该方法利用手头更便宜、保真度更低的问题数据,从一组候选草图中识别出最佳草图。这反过来又指定了预期的高保真模型草图和相关数据。我们对这种双保真度提升(BFB)方法进行了理论分析,并讨论了低保真度数据和高保真数据必须满足哪些条件才能成功提升。在此过程中,我们推导出了 BFB 草图解决方案的残差规范约束,将其与理想的高保真提升对应方案联系起来,但计算成本高昂。对人造数据和 PDE 数据的实证结果证实了理论分析,并说明了 BFB 解决方案在减少回归误差方面的功效。
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引用次数: 0
Corrigendum: Quasi–Monte Carlo Finite Element Analysis for Wave Propagation in Heterogeneous Random Media 更正:异质随机介质中波传播的准蒙特卡罗有限元分析
IF 2 3区 工程技术 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-03-29 DOI: 10.1137/23m1624609
M. Ganesh, Frances Y. Kuo, Ian H. Sloan
SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, Volume 12, Issue 1, Page 212-212, March 2024.
Abstract.
SIAM/ASA 不确定性量化期刊》,第 12 卷,第 1 期,第 212-212 页,2024 年 3 月。 摘要
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Siam-Asa Journal on Uncertainty Quantification
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