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Ecological resources of boreal forests in the adsorption of greenhouse gases and in adaptation to global warming 北方森林生态资源对温室气体的吸附和对全球变暖的适应
Pub Date : 2023-06-28 DOI: 10.25082/reie.2023.01.001
E. Kolomyts
One of the most important ways to achieve the goals stipulated by the Paris (2015) Agreement on Climate Change is to solve a two-fold task: 1) the absorption of CO2 by the forest communities from the atmosphere during global warming and 2) their adaptation to these climate changes, which should ensure the effectiveness of adsorption itself. Given report presents the regional experience of the numerical solution of this task. Calculations of the carbon balance of forest formations in the Oka-Volga River basin were carried out for global forecasts of moderate and extreme warming. The proposed index of labile elastic-plastic stability of forest ecosystems, which characterizes their isomorphic-restorative potential, was used as an indicator of adaptation. For the territory of the Oka river basin using multiple regression methods, a numerical experiment was conducted to assess the effect of the elastic stability of forest formations and the predicted climatic conditions on the carbon balance. A total of 11 linear equations were obtained (with a significance level of P <10-6). In the upcoming 100-year forecast period, the overall elastic-plastic stability of forest formations should increase, and to the greatest extent with extreme warming. Accordingly, one should expect a significant increase in the ability of boreal forests to absorb greenhouse gases. A comparison of the carbon balance values ​​of forest formations obtained with initial (base) and final (final) stability indices gives an unambiguous picture of a significant increase in the adsorption capacity of boreal forests with an increase in their regenerative potential. A decisive contribution to increasing the adsorption of greenhouse gases is made by the growth of reforestation adaptation, which plays the role of a direct environmental factor.
实现《巴黎气候变化协定》(2015年)规定的目标的最重要方法之一是解决双重任务:1)森林群落在全球变暖期间从大气中吸收二氧化碳,2)适应这些气候变化,这应确保吸附本身的有效性。给定的报告介绍了该任务数值求解的区域经验。对奥卡-伏尔加河流域森林形成的碳平衡进行了计算,用于全球中度和极端变暖的预测。所提出的森林生态系统不稳定弹塑性稳定性指数是森林生态系统同构恢复潜力的特征,被用作适应指标。使用多元回归方法对奥卡河流域的领土进行了数值实验,以评估森林结构的弹性稳定性和预测的气候条件对碳平衡的影响。共得到11个线性方程(显著性水平为P<10-6)。在即将到来的100年预测期内,森林结构的整体弹塑性稳定性应该会提高,并在极端变暖的情况下最大限度地提高。因此,人们应该预计北方森林吸收温室气体的能力会显著提高。碳平衡值的比较​​用初始(基本)和最终(最终)稳定性指数获得的森林形成的数据清楚地表明,北方森林的吸附能力随着其再生潜力的增加而显著增加。植树造林适应能力的提高对增加温室气体的吸收起到了决定性的作用,这是一个直接的环境因素。
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引用次数: 0
Pacific ocean mega ecotone of Northern Eruasia as the belt of the origin of the modern continental biosphere 欧亚大陆北部的太平洋巨型过渡带是现代大陆生物圈的起源带
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.25082/reie.2022.01.005
E. Kolomyts
The Pacific Ocean margin of Eurasia includes the age row (at the geologic time scale) of geoecotone objects which can be imagined by certain nodal stages of the evolutionary trajectory of exogenous landscape genesis in the continental biosphere. The reported strategy of scientific research is aimed at the establishment of zonal-regional and local regularities of landscape organization of insular and marginal-continental land in different morphotectonic and macroclimatic sectors of the Pacific Ocean mega-ecotone of Northern Eurasia, which is considered as a natural laboratory for studying the modern stage of development of the geographical envelope The empirical statistical models of the island-arc stage of continental biosphere development in the North-West Pacific have been created by the example of experimental test ground of the active Mendeleev volcano on the Kunashir Island (the South Kuril Ridge). It was shown that on this initial stage local geomorphological and hydro-edaphic conditions created the centers of origin of diverse phytocoenological structures. An exceptionally high percentage of green mass in the structure of production results in the acceleration of the biological cycle as a factor of stability of forest community under unfavorable conditions of “cold” oceanicity. Geothermal energy induces rearrangement of the plant cover towards the increase in its flora- and phytocoenotic diversity to the detriment of biomass formation rate. The “climatically unjustified” but sufficiently stable sub-boreal forest ecosystems were formed, as well as the early stages of buffer forest communities. The multidimensional empirical-statistical modeling of landscape connections in the marginal-continental sector of the Pacific Ocean mega ecotone has been performed based on an experimental site in the Lower By-Amur Region. The ecology of the boreal-forest landscape of the continental margin characterizes the mature stage of evolution of the continental biosphere. The regularities and causal mechanisms of the formation of buffer forest communities typical of ecotone systems have been represented more integrally. Forests of this phenomenal buffer flora are distinguished by extremely high parameters of structural and functional development and have reached the state approaching the evolutionary climax. The previously advanced concepts of the Pacific ecotone of Northern Eurasia as a focus of evolutionary processes in the continental biosphere have been confirmed.
欧亚大陆的太平洋边缘包括地质过渡带对象的年龄行(在地质时间尺度上),这些对象可以通过大陆生物圈外源景观发生演化轨迹的某些节点阶段来想象。报告的科学研究策略旨在建立欧亚大陆北部太平洋巨型过渡带不同形态构造和宏观气候部门的岛屿和边缘大陆陆地景观组织的地域性和局部性规律。以库纳希尔岛(南千岛脊)门捷列夫活火山实验试验场为例,建立了西北太平洋大陆生物圈发展的岛弧阶段的经验统计模型。结果表明,在这一初始阶段,当地的地貌和水文土壤条件创造了各种植物群落结构的起源中心。在生产结构中,绿色质量的比例异常高,导致生物循环加速,这是在不利的“冷”海洋性条件下森林群落稳定的一个因素。地热能引起植被的重新排列,增加植物群落多样性,损害生物量的形成速率。形成了“气候不合理”但足够稳定的亚北方森林生态系统,以及早期的缓冲森林群落。基于下阿穆尔河地区的一个实验场地,对太平洋巨型过渡带边缘-大陆板块景观联系进行了多维经验统计建模。大陆边缘寒带森林景观的生态学特征是大陆生物圈演化的成熟阶段。对典型过渡带缓冲林群落形成的规律和成因机制进行了较为完整的阐述。这一惊人的缓冲植物群的森林具有极高的结构和功能发育参数,并已达到接近进化高潮的状态。以前关于欧亚大陆北部太平洋带是大陆生物圈演化过程中心的先进概念已得到证实。
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引用次数: 0
Causes and consequences of floods: flash floods, urban floods, river floods and coastal floods 洪水的起因和后果:山洪、城市洪水、河流洪水和沿海洪水
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.25082/reie.2022.01.002
Safieh Javadinejad
Undoubtedly, the flood is known as a natural disaster. But in practice, the flood is considered the most terrible natural disaster in terms of mortality and financial losses. In this regard, a worrying trend is the increasing trend of mortality and flood damage in the world in recent decades. The increase in population and assets in the floodplain the changes in hydro systems and the destructive effects of human activities have been a major cause of this trend. In this chapter, due to the importance of this natural phenomenon in the ZayandehRud basin, the general study of flood and its effective factors in creating it, based on library studies and reports, and the collection of flood statistics in the basin during a 40-year period and the damage caused by this flood, has been attempted. With the causes and factors influencing the flooding and also the use of EXCEL software for various damages caused by these floods in high risk cities of this basin, has been identified. In general, the cause of many floods in the central parts of Iran, including ZayandehRud basin, is high rainfall. The causes of these rainfall are also related to the Elenino and Lenina phenomenon, as well as the passage of low pressure systems, which after affecting a large amount of steam from the Mediterranean, affect the western parts of the province that overlooks the Zagros mountains.
毫无疑问,洪水是一种自然灾害。但实际上,就死亡和经济损失而言,洪水被认为是最可怕的自然灾害。在这方面,一个令人担忧的趋势是近几十年来世界上死亡率和洪水损失的增加趋势。洪泛区人口和资产的增加、水力系统的变化以及人类活动的破坏性影响是这一趋势的主要原因。在本章中,由于扎彦德鲁河流域这一自然现象的重要性,在图书馆研究和报告的基础上,并收集了该流域40年来的洪水统计数据和洪水造成的破坏,试图对洪水及其产生的有效因素进行一般性研究。通过对洪涝灾害的成因和影响因素的分析,并利用EXCEL软件对该流域高风险城市洪涝灾害造成的各种损失进行了识别。总的来说,在伊朗中部地区,包括zayandhrud盆地,许多洪水的原因是高降雨量。这些降雨的原因也与埃莱尼诺和列宁娜现象有关,以及低压系统的通过,低压系统在影响了来自地中海的大量蒸汽后,影响了俯瞰扎格罗斯山脉的省份西部。
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引用次数: 2
Bolreal ecotone of the East-European Plain: Empirical statistical modeling 东欧平原Bolreal交错带:经验统计模型
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.25082/reie.2022.01.001
E. Kolomyts
The solution of multipurpose tasks of ecological forecasting may depend to a great extent on the results of system analysis of nature-territorial structures, which are most sensitive to external effects including anthropogenic. The scientific search in this direction focuses more and more attention on the natural boundaries – both individual and complex, where the most significant natural or anthropogenic shifts in the structure and function of geo(eco)systems are observed. Considering one or another natural boundary as a vector (connection, cascade, para-dynamical, etc.) landscape system with a clearly defined spatial polarization of its different properties, we obtain a "fast-flowing" model of state response and resistance of geo(eco)systems to the action of certain ecological factors. The study of the structural-functional organization of natural ecosystems at the geographical ecotones is also of scientific and methodical importance, which is common with geo-ecology and, in addition, most important for regional and local landscape-ecological forecasts. Geographical ecotones are the most sensitive (and, in this sense, the least stable) fragments of natural-territorial mosaic. The boreal biogeographic ecotone of the Volga River basin is described as an example for considering the theoretical and scientific-methodical problems of geographical zonality: the fundamental ecological-geographical conception at the present-day stage of biosphere evolution associated with the global anthropogenic impact on the climate. A conception on regional bioclimatic system, characterizing climate-genic exo-dynamic characteristics of soil-vegetation "core" of natural com-plexes is presented. It can survey as a scientific-methodological base of paleogeographical reconstructions and landscape-ecological forecasts. Climate nishes of the phytocoenological and soil’ units are the elements of bioclimatic system and the forms of display of soil-vegatation cover’ hydrothermal stability during the changing climate. Zonal boundaries are considered as modern spatial analogs of the future landscape changes in time. The work dwells on the basic "trigger" mechanisms of zonal boundary formation at the interaction of background climatic signals and their refraction by local (mainly lithe-genic) factors.
多目的生态预测任务的解决在很大程度上取决于对自然-地域结构的系统分析结果,而自然-地域结构对包括人为在内的外部影响最为敏感。在这个方向上的科学研究越来越多地集中在自然边界上——无论是单独的还是复杂的,在那里可以观察到地球(生态)系统结构和功能中最重要的自然或人为变化。将一个或另一个自然边界作为一个矢量(连接、级联、准动态等)景观系统,并将其不同性质的空间极化明确定义,我们获得了一个地理(生态)系统对某些生态因子作用的状态响应和抵抗的“快速流动”模型。研究地理交错带自然生态系统的结构-功能组织也具有科学和方法上的重要性,这与地质生态学一样,而且对区域和局部景观生态预测最为重要。地理交错带是自然地域马赛克中最敏感的(从这个意义上说,也是最不稳定的)片段。伏尔加河流域的北方生物地理过渡带被描述为考虑地理地带性的理论和科学方法问题的一个例子:在与全球人类对气候的影响相关的生物圈演变的当前阶段,基本的生态地理学概念。提出了表征自然复合体土壤-植被“核心”气候成因外动力特征的区域生物气候系统概念。可作为古地理重建和景观生态预测的科学方法论依据。植物群落和土壤单元的气候变化是生物气候系统的组成要素,是气候变化过程中土壤-植被覆盖热液稳定性的表现形式。地带性边界被认为是未来景观随时间变化的现代空间类比。研究了在背景气候信号的相互作用下纬向边界形成的基本“触发”机制及其在局部(主要是生石)因素的折射作用。
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引用次数: 0
Difference of rainfall-runoff models and effect on flood forecasting: A brief review 降雨径流模型的差异及其对洪水预报的影响
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.25082/reie.2022.01.003
Safieh Javadinejad, R. Dara, F. Jafary
Selecting a rainfall-runoff model for use in flood forecasting is not a direct decision and actually may contain the selection of more than one. There are a range of rainfall-runoff models for flow forecasting. They range in type from transfer function (empirical black box), through lumped conceptual to more physically-based distributed models. The rainfall-runoff models also are often accompanied by updating techniques for taking account of recent measurements of flow so as to improve the accuracy of model predictions in real-time. Against this variety of available modelling techniques, this study improved understanding of the most important and well known rainfall-runoff models for flood forecasting and highlighting their similarities and differences. Six models are selected in this study: the Probability Distributed Moisture (PDM) model, the Isolated Event Model (IEM), the US National Weather Service Sacramento model, the Grid Model, the Transfer Function (TF) model and the Physically Realisable Transfer Function (PRTF) model. The first three are conceptual soil moisture accounting models, with the Grid Model having a distributed formulation, whilst the TF and PRTF are “black box” time-series models. Also new model for the forecasting (e.g neural network (NN), fuzzy rule-based are reviewed. An important feature of the use of rainfall-runoff models in a real-time forecasting environment is the ability to integrate recent observations of flow in order to develop forecast performance. The available methods for forecast updating are reviewed with specific reference to state correction and error prediction techniques.
选择一个用于洪水预报的降雨径流模型不是一个直接的决定,实际上可能包含多个选择。有一系列用于流量预报的降雨径流模型。它们的类型从传递函数(经验黑箱)到集总概念到更基于物理的分布式模型。降雨径流模型也常常伴随着考虑到最近的流量测量的更新技术,以便提高模型实时预测的准确性。针对各种可用的建模技术,本研究提高了对洪水预报中最重要和最知名的降雨径流模型的理解,并突出了它们的异同。本文选择了概率分布湿度(PDM)模式、孤立事件模式(IEM)、美国国家气象局萨克拉门托模式、网格模式、传递函数(TF)模式和物理可实现传递函数(PRTF)模式6种模式。前三种是概念土壤湿度计算模型,其中网格模型具有分布式公式,而TF和PRTF是“黑箱”时间序列模型。并对神经网络、模糊规则等新的预测模型进行了综述。在实时预报环境中使用降雨径流模型的一个重要特点是能够综合最近的流量观测结果,以提高预报性能。综述了现有的预报更新方法,特别提到了状态校正和误差预测技术。
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引用次数: 2
Runoff coefficient estimation for various catchment surfaces 不同汇水面径流系数估算
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.25082/reie.2021.01.005
Safieh Javadinejad, R. Dara, Neda Dolatabadi
The definition of runoff coefficient is the portion of rainfall that turn into direct runoff throughout an occurrence, and it is a significant perception in engineering hydrology and is extensively applied for design and as a diagnostic variable to show runoff creation in catchments. Event runoff coefficients may also be applied in event‐based developed flood frequency models that measure flood frequencies from rainfall frequencies and are valuable for recognizing the flood frequency controls in a specific hydrologic or climatic regime. Only a few previous studies worked on hydrological systems and processes deeply at catchment scale. Also in many catchments because of lacking data sets, analysis of land use change and water management and risks causes uncertainty in predictions of hydrological processes can be decreased. This problem is more important for predicting hydrology of ungauged basins in developing countries. The purpose of this study is to review predicting hydrology of ungauged basins.
径流系数的定义是在整个事件过程中转化为直接径流的降雨部分,它是工程水文学中的一个重要概念,广泛应用于设计,并作为显示流域径流形成的诊断变量。事件径流系数也可以应用于基于事件的洪水频率模型,该模型通过降雨频率测量洪水频率,对于识别特定水文或气候条件下的洪水频率控制很有价值。以往对流域尺度的水文系统和过程进行深入研究的研究很少。此外,在许多集水区,由于缺乏数据集,对土地利用变化和水管理及风险的分析导致水文过程预测的不确定性可以减少。这个问题对于预测发展中国家未测量盆地的水文更为重要。本研究的目的是回顾未测量流域的水文预测。
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引用次数: 1
A review on homogeneity across hydrological regions 水文区域均匀性研究进展
Pub Date : 2021-02-09 DOI: 10.25082/reie.2021.01.004
Safieh Javadinejad
Hydrologic classification is the method of scientifically arranging streams, rivers or catchments into groups with the most similarity of flow regime features and use it to recognize hydrologically homogenous areas. Previous homogeneous attempts were depended on overabundance of hydrologic metrics that considers features of variability of flows that are supposed to be meaningful in modelling physical progressions in the basins. This research explains the techniques of hydrological homogeneity through comparing past and existing methods; in addition it provides a practical framework for hydrological homogeneity that illustrates serious elements of the classification process.
水文分类是将溪流、河流或集水区科学地排列成具有最相似流态特征的组,并用它来识别水文均匀区域的方法。以前的同质尝试依赖于过多的水文指标,这些指标考虑了流量变化的特征,这些特征被认为对流域的物理过程建模有意义。本研究通过比较过去和现有的方法来解释水文同质性的技术;此外,它还为水文同质性提供了一个实用的框架,说明了分类过程中的重要元素。
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引用次数: 6
Climate change simulation and impacts on extreme events of rainfall and storm water in the Zayandeh Rud Catchment 气候变化模拟及其对Zayandeh流域降水和暴雨极端事件的影响
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.25082/REIE.2021.01.001
Safieh Javadinejad, R. Dara, F. Jafary
Nowadays, one of the most significant problems is that to recognize how the severity of heavy precipitation and floods may alter in future time in comparison with the current period. The purpose of this research is to understand the impact of future climate change on storm water and probability of maximum flood for future time period. Zayandeh rud river basin in Iran is selected as a case study. Forecast of future climatic parameters based on temperature and precipitation of the upcoming period (2006-2040) is completed with using the HadCM3 model and based on RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 emission patterns. Also, climate change model is downscaled statistically with applying LARS-WG. In the next step, the probable of maximum precipitation is measured through synoptic method and then, in order to model maximum storm water under the climate change effects, the HEC-HMS for simulating rainfall-runoff model is used. Also, the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is applied to model snow melting. The results of this research indicate the maximum of probable precipitation in the basin for the period of 2006-2040 under the scenario RCP 2.6, can rise by 5% and by the scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 can decrease by 5% and 10%, respectively in comparison with the current period 1970-2005.
如今,最重要的问题之一是认识到与当前时期相比,未来强降水和洪水的严重程度可能会发生怎样的变化。本研究的目的是了解未来气候变化对未来一段时间内暴雨水量和最大洪水发生概率的影响。选取伊朗Zayandeh河流域作为案例研究。利用HadCM3模式和RCP 2.6、4.5和8.5排放型完成了基于未来时期(2006-2040)温度和降水的未来气候参数预报。同时,应用LARS-WG对气候变化模型进行了统计缩尺。接下来,通过天气学方法测量最大降水的可能性,然后使用HEC-HMS模拟降雨-径流模式来模拟气候变化影响下的最大暴雨。同时,应用融雪径流模型(SRM)模拟融雪过程。结果表明,与1970 ~ 2005年相比,RCP 2.6情景下2006 ~ 2040年流域最大可能降水量可增加5%,RCP 4.5情景和RCP 8.5情景分别可减少5%和10%。
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引用次数: 6
Municipal solid waste and risk from 1970 to 2020 1970 - 2020年城市固体废物及其风险
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.25082/reie.2021.01.003
J. Araiza-Aguilar, S. Cram-heydrich, Naxhelli Ruiz-Rivera, Oralia Oropeza-Orozco, María del Pilar Fernández-Lomelín, M. Rojas-Valencia
In the field of solid waste management, key concepts such as risk, impact and hazards have been used interchangeably and have had imprecise meanings and scopes; this can lead to a partial or biased vision, for example in relation to municipal solid waste management policies. This paper presents a review of the literature on the theme of municipal solid waste and risk. Analysis of scientific publications from the years 1970 to 2020 shows that the concept of risk in the field of solid waste has been approached from various perspectives and different interpretations. Of all risk components, vulnerability has been the least addressed in the literature, because technical aspects such as hazard modeling predominate in this field. Most of the publications have studied the final disposal stage, since open dumpsites and landfills are still the most common methods for disposing of solid waste. Finally, a reference framework is proposed.
在固体废物管理领域,风险、影响和危害等关键概念被交替使用,具有不精确的含义和范围;这可能导致片面或有偏见的看法,例如在城市固体废物管理政策方面。本文对有关城市固体废物及其风险的文献进行了综述。对1970年至2020年的科学出版物的分析表明,固体废物领域的风险概念已经从不同的角度和不同的解释进行了探讨。在所有风险组成部分中,脆弱性在文献中被提及的最少,因为技术方面,如风险建模,在这个领域占主导地位。由于露天倾倒场和堆填区仍然是处置固体废物最常用的方法,因此大多数出版物都研究了最后处置阶段。最后,提出了一个参考框架。
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引用次数: 0
Investigation of water quality in wet and dry seasons under climate change 气候变化条件下干湿季节水质调查
Pub Date : 2020-10-20 DOI: 10.15421/2020_212
Safieh Javadinejad, R. Dara, M. Hamed, Mariwan Akram Hamah Saeed, F. Jafary
Providing fresh water suitable for drinking and farming and living organisms in the ecosystem is essential. To evaluate water quality, qualitative indicators are often employed for managing water resources and water quality protection and pollution abatement. This study evaluated the quality of Borkhar basin water resources using three different water quality indices, including National Institutes of Health Water Quality Index (NIHWQI) having nine parameters, the Oregon Water Quality Index (OWQI) having eight parameters, and the Canadian Water Quality Indices (CWQI) with 22 main parameters. Using data for a period of 30 years, NIHWQI, OWQI and CWQI were used. To analyze water quality of the entire basin for current and future time. Results showed that water quality of the basin was in a very moderate range according to NSFWQI, and was in a very bad range accordingly to OWQI. Water quality forecasts showed that future water quality would be bad, based on OWQI and moderate based on NSFWQI, whereas based on CWQI, it will be good for drinking, and bad for aquatic animals, recreation, irrigation, and livestock use.
提供适合饮用和农业的淡水以及生态系统中的生物是必不可少的。为了评价水质,通常采用定性指标进行水资源管理和水质保护与污染减排。本研究采用美国国立卫生研究院水质指数(NIHWQI)(9个参数)、俄勒冈州水质指数(OWQI)(8个参数)和加拿大水质指数(CWQI)(22个主要参数)3种不同的水质指标对Borkhar流域水资源质量进行了评价。采用NIHWQI、OWQI和CWQI,数据跨度为30年。分析当前和未来整个流域的水质。结果表明,根据NSFWQI,流域水质处于中庸范围,根据OWQI,流域水质处于极差范围。基于OWQI的水质预测结果为“差”,基于NSFWQI的水质预测结果为“中等”,基于CWQI的水质预测结果为“好”,而基于水生动物、游憩、灌溉和畜牧业的水质预测结果为“差”。
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引用次数: 5
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