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2021 Annual Modeling and Simulation Conference (ANNSIM)最新文献

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Searching for Large-Order Multiple Recursive Generators 大阶多重递归生成器的搜索
Pub Date : 2021-07-19 DOI: 10.23919/ANNSIM52504.2021.9552067
Kenneth B. Pasiah, L. Deng, Dale Bowman, Ching-Chi Yang
Pseudo-random numbers (PRNs) are the basis for almost any statistical simulation and this depends largely on the quality of the pseudo-random number generator (PRNG) used. In this study, we used some results from number theory to propose an efficient method to accelerate the computer search of super-order maximum-period multiple recursive generators (MRGs). We conduct efficient computer searches and identify many efficient and portable MRGs of super-orders, 40751, 50551, and 50873; which respectively have equi-distribution property up to 40751, 50551, and 50873 dimensions, and period lengths of approximately 10380278.1, 10471730.6, and 10474729.3. Using the generalized Mersenne prime algorithm, we extend some known results of some efficient, portable and maximum-period MRGs. In particular, the DX/DL/DS/DT large-order generators are extended to super-order generators. An extensive empirical evaluation shows that these generators behave well when tested with the stringent Small Crush and Crush batteries of the TestU01 package.
伪随机数(prn)是几乎所有统计模拟的基础,这在很大程度上取决于所使用的伪随机数生成器(PRNG)的质量。在本研究中,我们利用数论的一些结果,提出了一种加速超阶最大周期多重递归发生器(mrg)计算机搜索的有效方法。我们进行了高效的计算机搜索,并识别了超级订单40751,50551和50873的许多高效和便携式mrg;它们分别具有40751、50551和50873维度的等分布特性,周期长度约为10380278.1、10471730.6和10474729.3。利用广义Mersenne素数算法,推广了一些有效的、可移植的、最大周期mrg的一些已知结果。特别地,将DX/DL/DS/DT大阶发生器推广到超阶发生器。广泛的经验评估表明,这些发电机在经过严格的TestU01封装的小挤压和挤压电池测试时表现良好。
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引用次数: 0
A Risk Estimation System to Predict Postpartum Cigarette Smoking Relapse 预测产后吸烟复吸的风险评估系统
Pub Date : 2021-07-19 DOI: 10.23919/ANNSIM52504.2021.9552047
Minsik Hong, J. Rozenblit, A. Allen, U. Nair, S. Allen
Postpartum relapse to cigarette smoking (PRS) rate has not substantially improved for more than two decades. Over 55% of women successfully quit smoking during pregnancy; however, half (50%) return to smoking within three months of childbirth and 90% relapse within a year. The identification of effective PRS prevention interventions are needed, especially since factors related to PRS risk factors vary by person, time, and context. In this paper, a prototype risk estimation system using daily ecological momentary assessment data is proposed to develop an adaptive intervention system which will consider multiple risk factors. The risk estimator is designed using a hierarchical fuzzy inference system design scheme to capture human knowledge. A particle swarm optimization scheme is also applied. The simulation results show the feasibility of the proposed estimator for the PRS prevention intervention system.
20多年来,产后复吸率没有明显改善。超过55%的女性在怀孕期间成功戒烟;然而,一半(50%)的人在分娩三个月内重新吸烟,90%的人在一年内复发。需要确定有效的PRS预防干预措施,特别是因为与PRS风险因素相关的因素因人、时间和环境而异。本文提出了一种基于每日生态瞬间评价数据的风险评估原型系统,以开发一种考虑多种风险因素的自适应干预系统。采用层次模糊推理系统设计方案设计风险估计器,以获取人类知识。同时采用了粒子群优化方法。仿真结果表明了所提出的估计器对PRS预防干预系统的可行性。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Control of a Discrete Time Stochastic Model of an Epidemic Spreading in Arbitrary Networks 传染病在任意网络中传播的离散时间随机模型的最优控制
Pub Date : 2021-07-19 DOI: 10.23919/ANNSIM52504.2021.9552097
Fabrizio Angaroni, C. Damiani, Giulia Ramunni, M. Antoniotti
Preparedness for any future epidemic has become an urgent need. Epidemic modeling and simulation are at the core of the healthcare efforts that are underway to assert some level of control over the spreading and the treatment of a pathogen. In this milieu, this paper describes a stochastic dynamic model to simulate the spreading of infectious diseases. We present the equations that describe the system dynamics, their adjoint systems, and their optimal control characterization by means of the discrete-system extension of Pontryagin's Maximum Principle. This derivation is presented in two different cases: a vaccination policy and a combined vaccination-treatment approach. We show the behavior of such models via numerical simulations using the forward-backward sweep procedure. While somewhat speculative, this paper provides insights into how to evaluate different theoretical optimal healthcare policies during an epidemic, either at the individual or metapopulation resolution level.
为未来任何流行病做好准备已成为一项迫切需要。流行病建模和模拟是正在进行的医疗保健工作的核心,旨在对病原体的传播和治疗进行一定程度的控制。在这种情况下,本文描述了一个模拟传染病传播的随机动态模型。利用庞特里亚金极大值原理的离散系统推广,给出了描述系统动力学、伴随系统及其最优控制特性的方程。这种推导在两种不同的情况下提出:疫苗接种政策和联合疫苗接种治疗方法。我们通过使用向前向后扫描过程的数值模拟来展示这种模型的行为。虽然有些推测,但本文提供了如何在流行病期间评估不同的理论最佳医疗保健政策的见解,无论是在个人还是在人口解决水平上。
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引用次数: 0
Unified Property Evaluations of Constrained-DEVS Models for Simulation and Model Checking 用于仿真和模型检验的约束- devs模型的统一性能评估
Pub Date : 2021-07-19 DOI: 10.23919/ANNSIM52504.2021.9552138
Soroosh Gholami, H. Sarjoughian
Properties represent the state of a system at any instance of time or for a period of time. We consider properties as a common concept for Experimental Frame (EF) that can be used for simulation and modeling checking. This affords to define experimental frames that can evaluate the dynamics of models of systems purposed for both validation and verification. We show this approach through simulation of Parallel DEVS models as well as model checking of Constrained-DEVS models. We develop experiments for simulating and model checking a prototypical Network-on-Chip (NoC) system. The models and experiments are developed and executed using the DEVS-Suite tool. New capabilities of this tool include support for defining experimental frames that stimulate and monitor executions of models. The proposed approach with the developed execution engine affords both simulation validation and model checking verification.
属性表示系统在任何时间实例或一段时间内的状态。我们认为属性是实验框架(EF)的一个共同概念,可以用于仿真和建模检查。这提供了定义实验框架,可以评估用于验证和验证的系统模型的动力学。我们通过并行DEVS模型的仿真以及约束DEVS模型的模型检查来展示这种方法。我们开发了一个原型片上网络(NoC)系统的仿真和模型检验实验。使用DEVS-Suite工具开发和执行模型和实验。该工具的新功能包括支持定义刺激和监视模型执行的实验框架。该方法与开发的执行引擎同时提供仿真验证和模型检查验证。
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引用次数: 2
How Many Costly Simulations Do we Need to Create Accurate Metamodels? A Case Study on Predicting HIV Viral Load in Response to Clinically Relevant Intervention Scenarios 我们需要多少昂贵的模拟来创建准确的元模型?在临床相关干预方案下预测HIV病毒载量的案例研究
Pub Date : 2021-07-19 DOI: 10.23919/ANNSIM52504.2021.9552036
Christopher B. Lutz, P. Giabbanelli, Andrew Fisher, Vijay K. Mago
Computer simulations are used in precision medicine to assist in adapting treatment plans for varying patient characteristics, especially for diseases like HIV where these characteristics have a major impact on disease trajectory. However, simulations are computationally intensive, which can be prohibitive at scale. Meta-models for HIV progression have been developed previously to approximate these simulation results more efficiently, but we are interested in determining how much data is required to build an accurate meta-model. Using many different amounts of data from two HIV simulation models, we build machine learning classification meta-models to predict if an HIV patient is at risk for AIDS based on treatment parameters. Our findings indicate that the amount required to achieve high meta-model accuracy varies for different computer simulations. We are able to achieve near-perfect accuracy with one of our models using limited data, while the other model requires more extensive data to achieve stable accuracy.
计算机模拟在精准医疗中被用于帮助调整治疗计划,以适应不同的患者特征,特别是对于像艾滋病这样的疾病,这些特征对疾病轨迹有重大影响。然而,模拟是计算密集型的,这在规模上可能是令人望而却步的。为了更有效地近似这些模拟结果,之前已经开发了HIV进展的元模型,但我们感兴趣的是确定需要多少数据来建立一个准确的元模型。使用来自两个HIV模拟模型的许多不同数量的数据,我们建立了机器学习分类元模型,以基于治疗参数预测HIV患者是否有患艾滋病的风险。我们的研究结果表明,实现高元模型精度所需的量因不同的计算机模拟而异。我们能够用一个模型使用有限的数据实现近乎完美的精度,而另一个模型需要更广泛的数据来实现稳定的精度。
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引用次数: 1
Towards a Verification and Validation Framework for COVID-19 Forecast Models 构建COVID-19预测模型的验证框架
Pub Date : 2021-07-19 DOI: 10.23919/ANNSIM52504.2021.9552116
Maura Lapoff, H. Kavak
We present a model verification and validation (V&V) framework to evaluate COVID-19 forecasting models on their report of eight V&V-related components: (1) Conceptual Model, (2) Code and Calculation Verification, (3) Data Validation, (4) Parameter Estimation, (5) Initialization, (6) Uncertainty Estimation, (7) Output Validation, and (8) Model-to-Model Comparison. The framework provides a structured method to evaluate these models based on their reported V&V practices qualitatively. We applied this framework as a checklist for nine models included in the COVID-19 Forecast Hub. One model got the highest score by supporting seven components, while the lowest-ranked model got only two. This framework can serve as part of a larger framework to qualitatively and quantitatively examine COVID-19 models' V&V reported practices and provide credibility for those models that not only perform well but also robust in model construction.
我们提出了一个模型验证和验证(V&V)框架来评估COVID-19预测模型的八个V&V相关组件的报告:(1)概念模型,(2)代码和计算验证,(3)数据验证,(4)参数估计,(5)初始化,(6)不确定性估计,(7)输出验证,(8)模型与模型比较。该框架提供了一种结构化的方法,可以根据报告的V&V实践对这些模型进行定性评估。我们将此框架应用于COVID-19预测中心中包含的九个模型的检查表。一款车型因支持7个组件而获得最高分,而排名最低的车型仅支持2个组件。该框架可以作为更大框架的一部分,用于定性和定量地检查COVID-19模型的V&V报告实践,并为那些不仅在模型构建中表现良好而且稳健的模型提供可信度。
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引用次数: 1
A Modeling and Simulation Platform for Space-Based Compartmental Modeling of Pandemic Spread 基于空间的大流行传播分区建模与仿真平台
Pub Date : 2021-07-19 DOI: 10.23919/ANNSIM52504.2021.9552046
Román Cárdenas, Alonso Inostrosa-Psijas, Gabriel A. Wainer
The COVID-19 outbreak has shown that Modeling and Simulation (M&S) methodologies are an important aspect to study the spread of the disease and assess the effect of different measures to diminish its negative effect. Although traditional models have been widely used, there is a need to build new, highly configurable disease models to explore multiple scenarios quickly. We present an M&S framework to perform rapid prototyping of pandemic spread using the Cell-DEVS space-based discrete-event modeling approach. This method supports age segmentation of the population, hospital-capacity-dependent deaths, and enforcing mobility restriction policies. This method is useful for studying the spread of the disease, as well as combining the simulation results with different visualization tools.
新冠肺炎疫情表明,建模和模拟(M&S)方法是研究疾病传播和评估不同措施效果以减少其负面影响的重要方面。尽管传统模型已被广泛使用,但需要建立新的、高度可配置的疾病模型来快速探索多种情况。我们提出了一个M&S框架,使用Cell-DEVS基于空间的离散事件建模方法来执行流行病传播的快速原型。该方法支持人口的年龄划分、医院能力相关死亡以及执行流动限制政策。该方法有助于研究疾病的传播,并将模拟结果与不同的可视化工具相结合。
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引用次数: 0
Combining Clinical and Social Determinants to Improve DoD/Veteran Well-Being: The Service Member Veteran Risk Profile 结合临床和社会决定因素改善国防部/退伍军人福利:服务成员退伍军人风险概况
Pub Date : 2021-07-19 DOI: 10.23919/ANNSIM52504.2021.9552161
M. Oxley, R. Hartman
This paper introduces the Service member Veteran Risk Profile (SVRP), a mathematical process/solution to quantitatively represent transitioning Service member (TSM) and/or Veteran quality of life risks by integrating clinical and social determinant data into an individual risk profile. The SVRP creates, for the first time, a mechanism for the Department of Defense (DoD) and Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) to holistically represent the challenges of military members transitioning into civilian life that can lead to negative outcomes and proactively identify transitioning Service members and Veterans at risk. More importantly, the SVRP supports clinical and non-clinical modalities to reduce the negative impacts of transition and beyond for TSM and Veterans. Lastly, the SVRP can be displayed through user-friendly visualizations so DoD/VA policymakers and decision-makers can make more informed policy and resource decisions to improve TSM/Veteran overall quality of life.
本文介绍了退伍军人风险概况(SVRP),这是一个数学过程/解决方案,通过将临床和社会决定因素数据整合到个人风险概况中,定量地表示过渡服役人员(TSM)和/或退伍军人的生活质量风险。SVRP首次为国防部(DoD)和退伍军人事务部(VA)创建了一个机制,以全面代表军人向平民生活过渡时可能导致负面结果的挑战,并主动识别过渡服务人员和面临风险的退伍军人。更重要的是,SVRP支持临床和非临床模式,以减少TSM和退伍军人过渡及其后的负面影响。最后,SVRP可以通过用户友好的可视化显示,因此国防部/退伍军人事务部的决策者和决策者可以制定更明智的政策和资源决策,以提高TSM/退伍军人的整体生活质量。
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引用次数: 0
Data-Driven Simulation of Contagions in Public Venues 公共场所传染病的数据驱动模拟
Pub Date : 2021-07-19 DOI: 10.23919/ANNSIM52504.2021.9552154
Stefano Guarino, D. Torre, M. Bernaschi, Alessandro Celestini, Marco Cianfriglia, Enrico Mastrostefano, L. Zastrow
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered a global research effort to define and assess timely and effective containment policies. Understanding the role that specific venues play in the dynamics of epidemic spread is critical to guide the implementation of fine-grained non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In this paper, we present a new model of context-dependent interactions that integrates information about the surrounding territory and the social fabric. Building on this model, we developed an open-source data-driven simulator of the patterns of fruition of specific gathering places that can be easily configured to project and compare multiple scenarios. We focused on the greatest park of the City of Florence, Italy, to provide experimental evidence that our simulator produces contact graphs with unique, realistic features, and that gaining control of the mechanisms that govern interactions at the local scale allows to unveil and possibly control non-trivial aspects of the epidemic.
2019冠状病毒病大流行引发了全球研究努力,以确定和评估及时有效的遏制政策。了解特定场所在流行病传播动态中发挥的作用,对于指导实施细粒度非药物干预措施至关重要。在本文中,我们提出了一种新的情境依赖互动模型,该模型集成了有关周围领土和社会结构的信息。在这个模型的基础上,我们开发了一个开源的数据驱动模拟器,可以很容易地配置为项目和比较多个场景的特定采集地点的成果模式。我们将重点放在意大利佛罗伦萨市最大的公园,以提供实验证据,证明我们的模拟器产生具有独特、逼真特征的接触图,并获得控制当地尺度上控制相互作用的机制,从而揭示并可能控制疫情的重要方面。
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引用次数: 1
Extending RC4 to Construct Secure Random Number Generators 扩展RC4构造安全随机数生成器
Pub Date : 2021-07-19 DOI: 10.23919/ANNSIM52504.2021.9552088
L. Deng, D. Bowman, Ching-Chi Yang, Henry Horng-Shing Lu
We consider a general framework for constructing non-linear generators by adding a (32-bit or larger) pseudo-random number generator (PRNG) as a baseline generator to the basic RC4 design, in which an index-selection scheme similar to RC4 is used. We refer to the proposed design as the eRC (enhanced/extended RC4) design. We discuss several advantages of adding a good baseline generator to the RC4 design, including new updating schemes for the auxiliary table. We consider some popular PRNGs with the nice properties of high-dimensional equi-distribution, efficiency, long period, and portability as the baseline generator. We demonstrate that eRC generators are very efficient via extensive empirical testing on some eRC generators. We also show that eRC is flexible enough to choose minimal design parameters for eRC generators and yet the resulting eRC generators still pass stringent empirical tests, which makes them suitable for both software and hardware implementations.
我们考虑了一个构造非线性生成器的一般框架,通过在基本的RC4设计中添加一个(32位或更大)伪随机数生成器(PRNG)作为基线生成器,其中使用了类似于RC4的索引选择方案。我们将建议的设计称为eRC(增强/扩展RC4)设计。我们讨论了在RC4设计中添加一个好的基线生成器的几个优点,包括辅助表的新更新方案。我们考虑了一些流行的prng作为基准发生器,它们具有高维等分布、高效、长周期和可移植性等优点。我们通过对一些eRC生成器进行广泛的实证测试,证明了eRC生成器非常高效。我们还表明,eRC足够灵活,可以为eRC生成器选择最小的设计参数,但最终的eRC生成器仍然通过严格的经验测试,这使得它们适用于软件和硬件实现。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
2021 Annual Modeling and Simulation Conference (ANNSIM)
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