Living Reviews in Solar Physics最新文献

A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including early forecasts for Cycle?25. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the start of the given cycle. Prediction methods form three main groups. Precursor methods rely on the value of some measure of solar activity or magnetism at a specified time to predict the amplitude of the following solar maximum. The choice of a good precursor often implies considerable physical insight: indeed, it has become increasingly clear that the transition from purely empirical precursors to model-based methods is continuous. Model-based approaches can be further divided into two groups: predictions based on surface flux transport models and on consistent dynamo models. The implicit assumption of precursor methods is that each numbered solar cycle is a consistent unit in itself, while solar activity seems to consist of a series of much less tightly intercorrelated individual cycles. Extrapolation methods, in contrast, are based on the premise that the physical process giving rise to the sunspot number record is statistically homogeneous, i.e., the mathematical regularities underlying its variations are the same at any point of time, and therefore it lends itself to analysis and forecasting by time series methods. In their overall performance during the course of the last few solar cycles, precursor methods have clearly been superior to extrapolation methods. One method that has yielded predictions consistently in the right range during the past few solar cycles is the polar field precursor. Nevertheless, some extrapolation methods may still be worth further study. Model based forecasts are quickly coming into their own, and, despite not having a long proven record, their predictions are received with increasing confidence by the community.

Strong solar flares and coronal mass ejections, here defined not only as the bursts of electromagnetic radiation but as the entire process in which magnetic energy is released through magnetic reconnection and plasma instability, emanate from active regions (ARs) in which high magnetic non-potentiality resides in a wide variety of forms. This review focuses on the formation and evolution of flare-productive ARs from both observational and theoretical points of view. Starting from a general introduction of the genesis of ARs and solar flares, we give an overview of the key observational features during the long-term evolution in the pre-flare state, the rapid changes in the magnetic field associated with the flare occurrence, and the physical mechanisms behind these phenomena. Our picture of flare-productive ARs is summarized as follows: subject to the turbulent convection, the rising magnetic flux in the interior deforms into a complex structure and gains high non-potentiality; as the flux appears on the surface, an AR with large free magnetic energy and helicity is built, which is represented by (delta )-sunspots, sheared polarity inversion lines, magnetic flux ropes, etc; the flare occurs when sufficient magnetic energy has accumulated, and the drastic coronal evolution affects magnetic fields even in the photosphere. We show that the improvement of observational instruments and modeling capabilities has significantly advanced our understanding in the last decades. Finally, we discuss the outstanding issues and future perspective and further broaden our scope to the possible applications of our knowledge to space-weather forecasting, extreme events in history, and corresponding stellar activities.

Magnetic fields suspend the relatively cool material of solar prominences in an otherwise hot corona. A comprehensive understanding of solar prominences ultimately requires complex and dynamic models, constrained and validated by observations spanning the solar atmosphere. We obtain the core of this understanding from observations that give us information about the structure of the “magnetic skeleton” that supports and surrounds the prominence. Energetically-sophisticated magnetohydrodynamic simulations then add flesh and blood to the skeleton, demonstrating how a thermally varying plasma may pulse through to form the prominence, and how the plasma and magnetic fields dynamically interact.

Supergranulation is a fluid-dynamical phenomenon taking place in the solar photosphere, primarily detected in the form of a vigorous cellular flow pattern with a typical horizontal scale of approximately 30–35?Mm, a dynamical evolution time of 24–48?h, a strong 300–400?m/s (rms) horizontal flow component and a much weaker 20–30?m/s vertical component. Supergranulation was discovered more than 60?years ago, however, explaining its physical origin and most important observational characteristics has proven extremely challenging ever since, as a result of the intrinsic multiscale, nonlinear dynamical complexity of the problem concurring with strong observational and computational limitations. Key progress on this problem is now taking place with the advent of twenty-first-century supercomputing resources and the availability of global observations of the dynamics of the solar surface with high spatial and temporal resolutions. This article provides an exhaustive review of observational, numerical and theoretical research on supergranulation, and discusses the current status of our understanding of its origin and dynamics, most importantly in terms of large-scale nonlinear thermal convection, in the light of a selection of recent findings.

Space and astrophysical plasmas often develop into a turbulent state and exhibit nearly random and stochastic motions. While earlier studies emphasize more on understanding the energy spectrum of turbulence in the one-dimensional context (either in the frequency or the wavenumber domain), recent achievements in plasma turbulence studies provide an increasing amount of evidence that plasma turbulence is essentially a spatially and temporally evolving phenomenon. This review presents various models for the space–time structure and anisotropy of the turbulent fields in space plasmas, or equivalently the energy spectra in the wavenumber–frequency domain for the space–time structures and that in the wavevector domain for the anisotropies. The turbulence energy spectra are evaluated in different one-dimensional spectral domains; one speaks of the frequency spectra in the spacecraft observations and the wavenumber spectra in the numerical simulation studies. The notion of the wavenumber–frequency spectrum offers a more comprehensive picture of the turbulent fields, and good models can explain the one-dimensional spectra in the both domains at the same time. To achieve this goal, the Doppler shift, the Doppler broadening, linear-mode dispersion relations, and sideband waves are reviewed. The energy spectra are then extended to the wavevector domain spanning the directions parallel and perpendicular to the large-scale magnetic field. By doing so, the change in the spectral index at different projections onto the one-dimensional spectral domain can be explained in a simpler way.

Interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) are large-scale heliospheric transients that originate from the Sun. When an ICME is sufficiently faster than the preceding solar wind, a shock wave develops ahead of the ICME. The turbulent region between the shock and the ICME is called the sheath region. ICMEs and their sheaths and shocks are all interesting structures from the fundamental plasma physics viewpoint. They are also key drivers of space weather disturbances in the heliosphere and planetary environments. ICME-driven shock waves can accelerate charged particles to high energies. Sheaths and ICMEs drive practically all intense geospace storms at the Earth, and they can also affect dramatically the planetary radiation environments and atmospheres. This review focuses on the current understanding of observational signatures and properties of ICMEs and the associated sheath regions based on five decades of studies. In addition, we discuss modelling of ICMEs and many fundamental outstanding questions on their origin, evolution and effects, largely due to the limitations of single spacecraft observations of these macro-scale structures. We also present current understanding of space weather consequences of these large-scale solar wind structures, including effects at the other Solar System planets and exoplanets. We specially emphasize the different origin, properties and consequences of the sheaths and ICMEs.

The Sun and other stars are magnetic: magnetism pervades their interiors and affects their evolution in a variety of ways. In the Sun, both the fields themselves and their influence on other phenomena can be uncovered in exquisite detail, but these observations sample only a moment in a single star’s life. By turning to observations of other stars, and to theory and simulation, we may infer other aspects of the magnetism—e.g., its dependence on stellar age, mass, or rotation rate—that would be invisible from close study of the Sun alone. Here, we review observations and theory of magnetism in the Sun and other stars, with a partial focus on the “Solar-stellar connection”: i.e., ways in which studies of other stars have influenced our understanding of the Sun and vice versa. We briefly review techniques by which magnetic fields can be measured (or their presence otherwise inferred) in stars, and then highlight some key observational findings uncovered by such measurements, focusing (in many cases) on those that offer particularly direct constraints on theories of how the fields are built and maintained. We turn then to a discussion of how the fields arise in different objects: first, we summarize some essential elements of convection and dynamo theory, including a very brief discussion of mean-field theory and related concepts. Next we turn to simulations of convection and magnetism in stellar interiors, highlighting both some peculiarities of field generation in different types of stars and some unifying physical processes that likely influence dynamo action in general. We conclude with a brief summary of what we have learned, and a sampling of issues that remain uncertain or unsolved.

Presented here is a review of present knowledge of the long-term behavior of solar activity on a multi-millennial timescale, as reconstructed using the indirect proxy method. The concept of solar activity is discussed along with an overview of the special indices used to quantify different aspects of variable solar activity, with special emphasis upon sunspot number. Over long timescales, quantitative information about past solar activity can only be obtained using a method based upon indirect proxies, such as the cosmogenic isotopes (^{14})C and (^{10})Be in natural stratified archives (e.g., tree rings or ice cores). We give an historical overview of the development of the proxy-based method for past solar-activity reconstruction over millennia, as well as a description of the modern state. Special attention is paid to the verification and cross-calibration of reconstructions. It is argued that this method of cosmogenic isotopes makes a solid basis for studies of solar variability in the past on a long timescale (centuries to millennia) during the Holocene. A separate section is devoted to reconstructions of strong solar energetic-particle (SEP) events in the past, that suggest that the present-day average SEP flux is broadly consistent with estimates on longer timescales, and that the occurrence of extra-strong events is unlikely. Finally, the main features of the long-term evolution of solar magnetic activity, including the statistics of grand minima and maxima occurrence, are summarized and their possible implications, especially for solar/stellar dynamo theory, are discussed.

Solar flares are observed at all wavelengths from decameter radio waves to gamma-rays beyond 1?GeV. This review focuses on recent observations in EUV, soft and hard X-rays, white light, and radio waves. Space missions such as RHESSI, Yohkoh, TRACE, SOHO, and more recently Hinode and SDO have enlarged widely the observational base. They have revealed a number of surprises: Coronal sources appear before the hard X-ray emission in chromospheric footpoints, major flare acceleration sites appear to be independent of coronal mass ejections, electrons, and ions may be accelerated at different sites, there are at least 3 different magnetic topologies, and basic characteristics vary from small to large flares. Recent progress also includes improved insights into the flare energy partition, on the location(s) of energy release, tests of energy release scenarios and particle acceleration. The interplay of observations with theory is important to deduce the geometry and to disentangle the various processes involved. There is increasing evidence supporting magnetic reconnection as the basic cause. While this process has become generally accepted as the trigger, it is still controversial how it converts a considerable fraction of the energy into non-thermal particles. Flare-like processes may be responsible for large-scale restructuring of the magnetic field in the corona as well as for its heating. Large flares influence interplanetary space and substantially affect the Earth’s ionosphere. Flare scenarios have slowly converged over the past decades, but every new observation still reveals major unexpected results, demonstrating that solar flares, after 150?years since their discovery, remain a complex problem of astrophysics including major unsolved questions.

Polar plumes are thin long ray-like structures that project beyond the limb of the Sun polar regions, maintaining their identity over distances of several solar radii. Plumes have been first observed in white-light (WL) images of the Sun, but, with the advent of the space era, they have been identified also in X-ray and UV wavelengths (XUV) and, possibly, even in in situ data. This review traces the history of plumes, from the time they have been first imaged, to the complex means by which nowadays we attempt to reconstruct their 3-D structure. Spectroscopic techniques allowed us also to infer the physical parameters of plumes and estimate their electron and kinetic temperatures and their densities. However, perhaps the most interesting problem we need to solve is the role they cover in the solar wind origin and acceleration: Does the solar wind emanate from plumes or from the ambient coronal hole wherein they are embedded? Do plumes have a role in solar wind acceleration and mass loading? Answers to these questions are still somewhat ambiguous and theoretical modeling does not provide definite answers either. Recent data, with an unprecedented high spatial and temporal resolution, provide new information on the fine structure of plumes, their temporal evolution and relationship with other transient phenomena that may shed further light on these elusive features.