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The Mid-Twentieth Century Baby Boom and the Role of Social Influence. An Agent-Based Modelling Approach 20世纪中期的婴儿潮和社会影响的作用。一种基于agent的建模方法
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.51964/hlcs9309
Eli Nomes, A. Grow, J. Bavel
Around the middle of the 20th century, most Western countries experienced a surge in birth rates, called the Baby Boom. This boom was unexpected at the time and the underlying mechanisms are still not entirely clear. It was characterized by high levels of inter- and intra-country variability in fertility, as some regions even experienced fertility decline during the Boom. In this paper, we suggest that social influence processes, propelling a shift towards two-child families, might have played an important role in the observed changes in fertility. Interactions in social networks can lead new types of childbearing behaviour to diffuse widely and thereby induce changes in fertility at the macro level. The emergence and diffusion of a two-child norm resulted in homogenization of fertility behaviour across regions. Overall, this led to a reduction of childlessness and thus an increase of fertility, as more people aspired to have at least two children. Yet, in those regions where larger family sizes were still common, the two-child norm contributed to a fertility decline. To explore the role of social influence with analytical rigor, we make use of agent-based computational modelling. We explicate the underlying behavioural assumptions in a formal model and assess their implications by submitting this model to computational simulation experiments. We use Belgium as a case study, since it exhibited large variability in fertility in a relatively small population during the Baby Boom years. We use census data to generate realistic starting conditions and to empirically validate the outcomes that our model generates. Our results show that the proposed mechanism could explain an important part of the variability of fertility trends during the Baby Boom era.
大约在20世纪中叶,大多数西方国家经历了出生率的激增,被称为“婴儿潮”。这种繁荣在当时是出乎意料的,其潜在机制仍不完全清楚。它的特点是国家间和国家内部的生育率差异很大,因为一些地区在繁荣时期甚至出现了生育率下降。在本文中,我们认为社会影响过程,推动了向二孩家庭的转变,可能在观察到的生育率变化中发挥了重要作用。社会网络中的相互作用可以导致新型生育行为的广泛传播,从而在宏观层面上引起生育率的变化。二孩标准的出现和扩散导致了各地区生育行为的同质化。总的来说,这导致了无子女的减少,从而提高了生育率,因为更多的人希望至少有两个孩子。然而,在那些家庭规模较大的地区,两个孩子的标准导致生育率下降。为了通过严谨的分析来探索社会影响的作用,我们使用了基于主体的计算模型。我们在正式模型中解释了潜在的行为假设,并通过将该模型提交给计算模拟实验来评估其含义。我们使用比利时作为案例研究,因为它在婴儿潮时期相对较少的人口中表现出很大的生育率变化。我们使用人口普查数据来生成现实的起始条件,并通过经验验证我们的模型生成的结果。我们的研究结果表明,所提出的机制可以解释婴儿潮时期生育趋势变化的一个重要部分。
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引用次数: 1
Interdisciplinary Approach to Spatiotemporal Population Dynamics: The North Orkney Population History Project. 时空人口动态跨学科方法:北奥克尼人口历史项目。
Pub Date : 2019-01-01
Julia A Jennings, Corey S Sparks, Timothy Murtha

The North Orkney Population History Project is a multidisciplinary data collection, digitization, and analysis effort that aims to reconstruct longitudinal demographic, environmental, and economic change. We describe the motivation, methodological approach, data sources, and some initial findings of the project. Detailed contextual information about a single community allows for the joint analysis of the changing population and changing landscape. The combination of diverse data sources and disciplinary approaches has resulted in findings that would not have been possible if each source had been considered in isolation. The approach adopted by the project offers a way to examine the interaction of a population with its landscape over a period of change.

北奥克尼人口历史项目是一项多学科数据收集、数字化和分析工作,旨在重建纵向人口、环境和经济变化。我们将介绍该项目的动机、方法、数据来源和一些初步发现。单个社区的详细背景信息允许对不断变化的人口和不断变化的景观进行联合分析。将不同的数据来源和学科方法结合起来,得出了如果孤立地考虑每种来源所无法得出的结论。该项目所采用的方法为研究变化时期人口与景观的相互作用提供了一种途径。
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引用次数: 0
Interdisciplinary Approach to Spationtemporal Population Dynamics. The North Orkney Population History Project 时空人口动态的跨学科方法。北奥克尼人口历史项目
Pub Date : 2019-01-01 DOI: 10.51964/hlcs9306
Julia A Jennings, Corey S. Sparks, T. Murtha
The North Orkney Population History Project is a multidisciplinary data collection, digitization, and analysis effort that aims to reconstruct longitudinal demographic, environmental, and economic change. We describe the motivation, methodological approach, data sources, and some initial findings of the project. Detailed contextual information about a single community allows for the joint analysis of the changing population and changing landscape. The combination of diverse data sources and disciplinary approaches has resulted in findings that would not have been possible if each source had been considered in isolation. The approach adopted by the project offers a way to examine the interaction of a population with its landscape over a period of change.
北奥克尼人口历史项目是一项多学科数据收集、数字化和分析工作,旨在重建纵向人口、环境和经济变化。我们描述了项目的动机、方法、数据来源和一些初步发现。关于单个社区的详细背景信息允许对不断变化的人口和不断变化的景观进行联合分析。不同的数据来源和学科方法相结合,产生了如果单独考虑每个来源就不可能得出的结论。该项目采用的方法提供了一种方法来检查人口与景观在一段时间内的相互作用。
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引用次数: 2
Introduction: Intergenerational Transmissions of Infant Mortality using the Intermediate Data Structure (IDS) 导论:使用中间数据结构(IDS)的婴儿死亡率代际传递
Pub Date : 2018-12-20 DOI: 10.51964/hlcs9288
L. Quaranta, H. Sommerseth
It has previously been shown that infant mortality clusters in a subset of families, a phenomenon which was observed in historical populations as well as contemporary developing countries. A transmission of death clustering across generations has also been shown in Belgium, but it is unknown whether such effects are specific to the studied context or are also found in other areas. The current article introduces a special issue devoted to analysing intergenerational transmissions of infant mortality across the maternal line in Belgium, the Netherlands, northern and southern Sweden, and Norway. Taking advantage of the Intermediate Data Structure (IDS), the five empirical studies created datasets for analysis and ran statistical models using exactly the same programs, which are also published within the special issue. These works are the first set of studies using the IDS on several databases for comparative purposes. Consistent results across the studied contexts were shown: transfers of infant mortality across the maternal line were seen in all five areas. In addition, the works have shown that there are large advantages of adopting the IDS for historical demographic research. The structure has in fact allowed researchers to conduct studies which were fully comparable, transparent and replicable.
以前的研究表明,婴儿死亡率集中在一部分家庭中,这一现象在历史人口和当代发展中国家都有观察到。在比利时也发现了死亡聚集性跨代传播,但尚不清楚这种影响是特定于所研究的环境还是也存在于其他地区。当前的文章介绍了一个特别的问题,专门分析在比利时,荷兰,瑞典北部和南部,和挪威的母婴线的婴儿死亡率的代际传递。利用中间数据结构(IDS),这五项实证研究创建了用于分析的数据集,并使用完全相同的程序运行了统计模型,这些程序也发表在特刊中。这些工作是为了比较目的而在几个数据库上使用IDS的第一组研究。在所有研究背景下都显示出一致的结果:在所有五个地区都可以看到婴儿死亡率在母系之间的转移。此外,研究表明,采用IDS进行历史人口研究具有很大的优势。事实上,这种结构使研究人员能够进行完全可比较、透明和可复制的研究。
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引用次数: 9
Intergenerational Transfers in Infant Mortality in Southern Sweden, 1740-1968 1740-1968年瑞典南部婴儿死亡率的代际转移
Pub Date : 2018-12-11 DOI: 10.51964/hlcs9283
L. Quaranta
Studies conducted in historical populations and developing countries have evidenced the existence of clustering in infant deaths, which could be related to genetic inheritance, early life exposures, and/or to social and cultural factors such as education, socioeconomic status or parental care. A transmission of death clustering has also been found across generations. This paper is one of five studies that analyses intergenerational transmissions in infant mortality by using a common program to create the dataset for analysis and run the statistical models with data stored in the Intermediate Data Structure. The results of this study show that in five rural parishes in Scania, the southernmost province of Sweden, during the years 1740-1968 infant mortality was transmitted across generations. Children whose maternal grandmothers experienced two or more infant deaths had higher risks of dying in infancy. The results remained consistent when restricting the sample only to cases where the grandmother had been observed for her entire reproductive history or when controlling for socioeconomic status. When running sex specific models, significant effects of the number of infant deaths of the grandmother were observed for girls but not for boys.
在历史人口和发展中国家进行的研究证明,婴儿死亡存在聚集性,这可能与基因遗传、早期生活暴露和/或教育、社会经济地位或父母照顾等社会和文化因素有关。死亡集群在几代人之间也有传播。本文是五项分析婴儿死亡率代际传递的研究之一,该研究使用一个通用程序创建数据集进行分析,并使用存储在中间数据结构中的数据运行统计模型。这项研究的结果表明,在瑞典最南端的斯堪尼亚省的五个农村教区,1740-1968年间,婴儿死亡率代代相传。外祖母经历过两次或两次以上婴儿死亡的儿童在婴儿期死亡的风险更高。当仅将样本限制在祖母整个生育史都有观察的情况下,或在控制社会经济地位时,结果保持一致。在运行特定性别的模型时,观察到祖母婴儿死亡人数对女孩的显著影响,但对男孩没有。
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引用次数: 9
Membership in and Presence of Voluntary Organisations during the Swedish Fertility Transition, 1880-1949 1880-1949年瑞典生育过渡期间志愿组织的成员和存在
Pub Date : 2018-09-28 DOI: 10.51964/hlcs9335
J. Junkka
This article investigates the association between, participation in, and exposure to voluntary organisations and marital fertility during the European fertility transition from 1880 to 1949. This is achieved using individual-level longitudinal demographic data from northern Sweden linked with individual-level information on voluntary organisation membership and contextual level information on organisation activity. How living near an organisation influenced fertility is measured using mixed effect Cox regressions. The association to participation for both men and women is tested by matching members to a control group through propensity score matching before estimating differences in risks of another birth using Cox regressions. The results show that being exposed to an organisation was related to lower fertility. Joining a union or a temperance organisation showed even stronger negative associations, but only for male members, while female members showed no significant difference in fertility. The results suggest that reproductive decisions were not simple responses by the individual couple to structural changes but were also shaped within the social networks of which they were a part.
本文调查了1880年至1949年欧洲生育率转型期间,自愿组织的参与和参与与婚姻生育之间的关系。这是通过使用瑞典北部的个人层面纵向人口统计数据实现的,这些数据与自愿组织成员的个人层面信息和组织活动的背景层面信息相关联。居住在组织附近对生育率的影响是通过混合效应Cox回归来衡量的。在使用Cox回归估计再次分娩风险的差异之前,通过倾向评分匹配将成员与对照组进行匹配,来测试男性和女性参与的相关性。研究结果表明,暴露在一个组织中与较低的生育率有关。加入工会或禁酒组织显示出更强的负面关联,但仅针对男性成员,而女性成员的生育率没有显著差异。研究结果表明,生育决定并不是单个夫妇对结构变化的简单反应,而是在他们所属的社会网络中形成的。
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引用次数: 2
Mortality, Work and Migration. A Consideration of Age-specific Mortality from Tuberculosis in Scotland, 1861-1901. 死亡率、工作和移徙。1861-1901年苏格兰结核病的年龄特异性死亡率分析。
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 DOI: 10.17863/CAM.23494
A. Reid, E. Garrett
This paper provides an examination into some of the most enduring debates regarding tuberculosis mortality during the nineteenth century: those related to gender, geographic and temporal variations. We use populations reconstructed from individual census and civil register data for the period 1861 to 1901, comparing a growing urban area with a declining rural area, both with around 20,000 inhabitants in 1861. Our analysis shows that among young adults tuberculosis was linked to excess female mortality in the urban area and excess male mortality in the rural area. We demonstrate that in the town textile workers of both genders had particularly high mortality from tuberculosis, and that the only reason for higher overall female mortality was the predominance of young women in the textile labour force. We show that the age and gender-specific pattern of mortality in the rural area is consistent with higher male than female out-migration together with return migration of those who had contracted the disease elsewhere and needed care during their lengthy illness. We argue that the observed patterns are difficult to reconcile with the 'bargaining-nutrition' account of gendered patterns in tuberculosis mortality, and that they provide little support for nutrition as a key influence on the disease. However, our findings do reinforce Andrew Hinde's recent argument that geographical patterns in sex-specific tuberculosis mortality rates were largely determined by migration patterns, and we discuss the implications of this for our understanding of the decline of the disease over the late nineteenth century.
本文对19世纪关于结核病死亡率的一些最持久的辩论进行了研究:与性别、地理和时间变化有关的辩论。我们使用了从1861年至1901年期间的个人人口普查和民事登记数据重建的人口,比较了不断增长的城市地区和不断下降的农村地区,1861年都有大约2万居民。我们的分析表明,在年轻人中,结核病与城市地区过高的女性死亡率和农村地区过高的男性死亡率有关。我们证明,在城镇中,男女纺织工人的结核病死亡率都特别高,而女性总体死亡率较高的唯一原因是纺织劳动力中年轻女性占主导地位。我们表明,农村地区的年龄和性别死亡率模式与男性向外迁移高于女性以及在其他地方感染该疾病并在长期患病期间需要护理的人的返回迁移相一致。我们认为,观察到的模式很难与结核病死亡率性别模式的“讨价还价-营养”解释相一致,并且它们很少支持营养是对疾病的关键影响。然而,我们的发现确实加强了Andrew Hinde最近的观点,即性别结核病死亡率的地理模式在很大程度上取决于迁移模式,我们讨论了这对我们理解19世纪晚期结核病下降的影响。
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引用次数: 7
Mortality, Work and Migration. A Consideration of Age-specific Mortality from Tuberculosis in Scotland, 1861-1901. 死亡率、工作和迁移。对 1861-1901 年苏格兰特定年龄结核病死亡率的考量》(A Consideration of Age-specific Mortality from Tuberculosis in Scotland, 1861-1901)。
Pub Date : 2018-01-01 Epub Date: 2018-03-26
Alice Reid, Eilidh Garrett

This paper provides an examination into some of the most enduring debates regarding tuberculosis mortality during the nineteenth century: those related to gender, geographic and temporal variations. We use populations reconstructed from individual census and civil register data for the period 1861 to 1901, comparing a growing urban area with a declining rural area, both with around 20,000 inhabitants in 1861. Our analysis shows that among young adults tuberculosis was linked to excess female mortality in the urban area and excess male mortality in the rural area. We demonstrate that in the town textile workers of both genders had particularly high mortality from tuberculosis, and that the only reason for higher overall female mortality was the predominance of young women in the textile labour force. We show that the age and gender-specific pattern of mortality in the rural area is consistent with higher male than female out-migration together with return migration of those who had contracted the disease elsewhere and needed care during their lengthy illness. We argue that the observed patterns are difficult to reconcile with the 'bargaining-nutrition' account of gendered patterns in tuberculosis mortality, and that they provide little support for nutrition as a key influence on the disease. However, our findings do reinforce Andrew Hinde's recent argument that geographical patterns in sex-specific tuberculosis mortality rates were largely determined by migration patterns, and we discuss the implications of this for our understanding of the decline of the disease over the late nineteenth century.

本文探讨了十九世纪有关结核病死亡率的一些最持久的争论:与性别、地理和时间变化有关的争论。我们利用 1861 年至 1901 年期间的人口普查和民事登记数据重建的人口,比较了一个不断发展的城市地区和一个不断衰退的农村地区,这两个地区在 1861 年都有约 20,000 名居民。我们的分析表明,在青壮年中,结核病与城市地区女性死亡率过高和农村地区男性死亡率过高有关。我们证明,在城镇,纺织工人的男女死亡率都特别高,而女性总死亡率较高的唯一原因是纺织工人中年轻女性占多数。我们的研究表明,农村地区按年龄和性别划分的死亡率模式与男性向外移民多于女性,以及那些在其他地方染病并在长期患病期间需要护理的人回流的情况相一致。我们认为,观察到的模式很难与结核病死亡率中性别模式的 "讨价还价-营养 "说法相一致,而且这些模式也无法证明营养是影响结核病的关键因素。不过,我们的研究结果确实加强了安德鲁-欣德(Andrew Hinde)最近提出的论点,即肺结核性别死亡率的地理模式在很大程度上是由移民模式决定的。
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引用次数: 0
IDS Transposer: A Users Guide. IDS转座机:用户指南。
Pub Date : 2017-01-01 Epub Date: 2017-05-09
Emily Klancher Merchant, George Alter, Jane Wang, Ashok Bhargav

The Intermediate Data Structure (IDS) provides a standard format for storing and sharing individual-level longitudinal life-course data (Alter and Mandemakers 2014; Alter, Mandemakers and Gutmann 2009). Once the data are in the IDS format, a standard set of programs can be used to extract data for analysis, facilitating the analysis of data across multiple databases. Currently, life-course databases store information in a variety of formats, and the process of translating data into IDS can be long and tedious. The IDS Transposer is a software tool that automates this process for source data in any format, allowing database administrators to specify how their datasets are to be represented in IDS. This article describes how the IDS Transposer works, first by going through an example step-by-step, and then by discussing each part of the process and potential options and exceptions in detail.

中间数据结构(IDS)为存储和共享个人层面的纵向生命历程数据提供了标准格式(Alter and Mandemakers 2014;Alter, Mandemakers and Gutmann 2009)。一旦数据采用IDS格式,就可以使用一组标准程序提取数据进行分析,从而促进跨多个数据库的数据分析。目前,生命周期数据库以各种格式存储信息,将数据转换为IDS的过程可能漫长而繁琐。IDS Transposer是一种软件工具,可以对任何格式的源数据自动执行此过程,允许数据库管理员指定如何在IDS中表示他们的数据集。本文首先通过一个示例逐步介绍IDS Transposer的工作原理,然后详细讨论该过程的每个部分以及潜在的选项和异常。
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引用次数: 0
The Intermediate Data Structure (IDS) for Longitudinal Historical Microdata, version 4. 纵向历史微观数据的中间数据结构(IDS),版本4。
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 Epub Date: 2014-05-26
George Alter, Kees Mandemakers

The Intermediate Data Structure (IDS) is a standard data format that has been adopted by several large longitudinal databases on historical populations. Since the publication of the first version in Historical Social Research in 2009, two improved and extended versions have been published in the Collaboratory Historical Life Courses. In this publication we present version 4 which is the latest 'official' standard of the IDS. Discussions with users over the last four years resulted in important changes, like the inclusion of a new table defining the hierarchical relationships among 'contexts,' decision schemes for recording relationships, additional fields in the metadata table, rules for handling stillbirths, a reciprocal model for relationships, guidance for linking IDS data with geospatial information, and the introduction of an extended IDS for computed variables.

中间数据结构(IDS)是一种标准数据格式,已被几个关于历史人口的大型纵向数据库所采用。自2009年在《历史社会研究》上发表第一个版本以来,在《历史生活课程合作》上发表了两个改进和扩展版本。在本出版物中,我们介绍了IDS的最新“官方”标准版本4。在过去的四年里,与用户的讨论产生了重要的变化,比如加入了一个新的表格,定义了“上下文”之间的层次关系,记录关系的决策方案,元数据表格中的额外字段,处理死产的规则,关系的互惠模型,将IDS数据与地理空间信息联系起来的指南,以及引入用于计算变量的扩展IDS。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Historical life course studies
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