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What’s in the Powder? Evaluating Fentanyl Test Strip Sensitivity to Common Household Items in Chemical Emergency Response Scenarios 粉末里有什么?评估芬太尼试纸条对化学应急反应场景中常见家庭物品的敏感性
IF 3.4 Pub Date : 2025-09-18 DOI: 10.1021/acs.chas.5c00103
Kate Y. Mongold, , , Meshel A. Lange, , , Mason Shields, , and , Heather M. Barkholtz*, 

The increasing prevalence of opioid misuse, particularly the adulteration of illicit substances with fentanyl, has heightened the need for effective field detection methods for unknown powders. First responders, including chemical emergency response and Hazardous Materials (HazMat) teams, face significant challenges in assessing chemical threats in real-time without the resources of a controlled laboratory environment. Immunoassay test strips are commonly used for drug detection and are considered potential tools for identifying fentanyl in emergency scenarios. However, the impact of common diluents (substances such as sugar, flour, and other commonplace additives) on the accuracy of these test strips is unexplored. This study evaluates the limit of detection (LOD) of a popular commercially available fentanyl test strip (FTS) in the presence of various diluents commonly found in emergency situations. The experimental LOD was determined to be 0.05 μg/mL, significantly lower than the reported LOD of 0.20 μg/mL. While no false positives were observed with diluents alone, the presence of diluents in fentanyl solutions altered FTS results, requiring higher concentrations of fentanyl to achieve a positive reading. Results were often difficult to interpret, particularly near the LOD, which could pose challenges for first responders in real-world scenarios. This work is the first to assess the application of FTS to chemical emergency response situations and threat assessment of unknown powders. Commercially available FTS are cost-effective, user-friendly, provide rapid results, and detect low concentrations of fentanyl even in the presence of other substances.

阿片类药物滥用日益普遍,特别是在非法物质中掺入芬太尼,这就更加需要对未知粉末进行有效的现场检测方法。第一响应者,包括化学品应急反应和危险材料小组,在没有受控实验室环境资源的情况下,在实时评估化学品威胁方面面临重大挑战。免疫测定试纸条通常用于药物检测,被认为是在紧急情况下识别芬太尼的潜在工具。然而,普通稀释剂(如糖、面粉和其他普通添加剂等物质)对这些试纸的准确性的影响尚未研究。本研究评估了一种流行的市售芬太尼试纸(FTS)在紧急情况下常见的各种稀释剂存在下的检出限(LOD)。实验测定的LOD为0.05 μg/mL,显著低于文献报道的LOD 0.20 μg/mL。虽然单独使用稀释剂没有观察到假阳性,但芬太尼溶液中稀释剂的存在改变了FTS结果,需要更高浓度的芬太尼才能达到阳性读数。结果通常难以解释,特别是在LOD附近,这可能会给真实场景中的急救人员带来挑战。本工作首次评估了FTS在化学应急情况和未知粉末威胁评估中的应用。市售FTS具有成本效益、用户友好、提供快速结果的优点,即使在存在其他物质的情况下也能检测低浓度的芬太尼。
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引用次数: 0
Integrated Fault Tree Analysis and Bayesian Network for Fire Risk Assessment in University Laboratories 基于故障树分析和贝叶斯网络的高校实验室火灾风险评估
IF 3.4 Pub Date : 2025-09-17 DOI: 10.1021/acs.chas.5c00134
Yushan Zhao, , , Hui Liu*, , , Bingrui Tong, , , Cong He, , and , Junjie Zhu, 

The rapid expansion of higher education has introduced new safety challenges in university laboratories, where fire incidents now represent a critical threat to campus safety. In this paper, we propose a method for analyzing the causes of fire accidents by combining Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Bayesian Network (BN), which breaks through the limitations of the static analysis of traditional risk assessment. Based on accident cases at home and abroad, the direct and indirect causes of fires in university laboratories were analyzed by using the accident tree. The fire accident tree of the university laboratory, containing 21 basic events, was constructed and mapped into a Bayesian model with dynamic reasoning ability according to the transformation principle. The model was then optimized according to the actual situation. GENIE5.0 software was used for quantitative analysis, forward reasoning of the occurrence probability of fire accidents, and reverse inference of the posterior probability of the root node. The key factors of fires were determined through probability importance analysis and sensitivity analysis. The analysis results show that the probability of laboratory fire is 2.39%, and the three key risk factors are unreasonable storage of combustibles, insufficient or ineffective laboratory fire extinguishing equipment, and chemical reaction. Prevention and control measures such as “five fixed management” and virtual reality emergency drills are proposed to provide a basis for fire analysis and prevention in university laboratories.

高等教育的快速扩张给大学实验室的安全带来了新的挑战,火灾事件现在已经成为校园安全的严重威胁。本文提出了一种将故障树分析(FTA)与贝叶斯网络(BN)相结合的火灾事故原因分析方法,突破了传统风险评估静态分析的局限性。结合国内外事故案例,运用事故树法对高校实验室火灾的直接原因和间接原因进行了分析。根据转换原理,构建了包含21个基本事件的高校实验室火灾事故树,并将其映射为具有动态推理能力的贝叶斯模型。然后根据实际情况对模型进行了优化。采用GENIE5.0软件进行定量分析,对火灾事故发生概率进行正向推理,对根节点后验概率进行反向推理。通过概率重要性分析和敏感性分析,确定了火灾发生的关键因素。分析结果表明,实验室发生火灾的概率为2.39%,可燃物储存不合理、实验室灭火设备不足或无效、化学反应是三个关键危险因素。提出了“五固管理”、虚拟现实应急演练等防控措施,为高校实验室火灾分析和预防提供依据。
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引用次数: 0
Laboratory Chemical Safety Management Practices in Chinese Universities: A Case Study of Peking University 中国高校实验室化学品安全管理实践——以北京大学为例
IF 3.4 Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1021/acs.chas.5c00078
Yuetian Li*, , , Bingjun Han, , , Xuelei Liu, , , Xiaojuan Zhao, , and , Enjing Li, 

Chemical management in university laboratories constitutes a critical component of laboratory safety governance, requiring not only compliance with national chemical regulations but also the establishment of a robust internal management framework. University-level administrative departments play pivotal guiding and supportive roles in this process. This study first outlines China’s current legal framework for chemical safety management, followed by a detailed analysis of Peking University’s initiatives to enhance chemical safety. These initiatives include establishing a multitiered accountability system, refining institutional protocols, implementing comprehensive safety training programs, conducting regular inspections, and enforcing full process management─spanning procurement, usage, storage, and disposal─alongside categorized and tiered risk control strategies. With the advancement of information technologies, emerging tools such as the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, and virtual reality are anticipated to revolutionize chemical management practices in academic laboratories.

高校实验室的化学品管理是实验室安全治理的重要组成部分,不仅需要遵守国家化学品法规,还需要建立健全的内部管理框架。高校行政管理部门在这一过程中起着关键的指导和支持作用。本研究首先概述了中国目前化学品安全管理的法律框架,然后详细分析了北京大学加强化学品安全的举措。这些措施包括建立多层次的问责制度,完善制度协议,实施全面的安全培训计划,进行定期检查,并实施包括采购、使用、储存和处置在内的全过程管理,以及分类和分层的风险控制策略。随着信息技术的进步,物联网、人工智能和虚拟现实等新兴工具有望彻底改变学术实验室的化学品管理实践。
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引用次数: 0
The Deflagration Effects of Premixed Methane–Air Cloud with Buildings in Open Space 开放空间预混甲烷-空气云与建筑物的爆燃效应
IF 3.4 Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI: 10.1021/acs.chas.5c00115
Jiashuai Wang, , , Xu Wang, , , Shengzhu Zhang*, , , Yuntao Li, , , Jie Zhang, , , Dengfeng Zheng, , and , Yanan You, 

To investigate methane-premixed gas cloud deflagration consequences, we developed a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for natural gas deflagration. Validation against large-scale pipeline explosion experiments preceded the examination of characteristic parameters of gas cloud and building presence effects on deflagration fireball thermal radiation and overpressure. Results indicate that open-space deflagration yields increasing external overpressure with equivalence ratios below 1.4; identical-area circular clouds exhibit 10% higher thermal radiation growth rates and greater overpressure increases than square counterparts; nonuniform gas distribution reduces thermal radiation (magnitude dependent on heterogeneity); frontal radiation exceeds lethal limits within 150 m of leakage points; buildings confer significant shielding, establishing safety beyond 200 m; increased building height accelerates surface thermal attenuation; rooftops occupy thermal decay transition zones where attenuation rates intensify with height.

为了研究甲烷预混气云爆燃的后果,我们开发了天然气爆燃的计算流体动力学(CFD)模型。在进行大型管道爆炸实验验证之前,研究了气体云特征参数和建筑物存在对爆燃火球热辐射和超压的影响。结果表明:当当量比小于1.4时,开间爆燃产生的外超压增大;同面积圆形云的热辐射增长率和超压增幅比方形云高10%;非均匀气体分布减少了热辐射(大小取决于非均质性);正面辐射在泄漏点150米范围内超过致死限度;建筑物具有显著的屏蔽作用,确保200米以上的安全;建筑高度的增加加速了表面热衰减;屋顶处于热衰减过渡区,衰减率随高度增加而加剧。
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引用次数: 0
The Gist of the List 清单要点
IF 3.4 Pub Date : 2025-09-06 DOI: 10.1021/acs.chas.5c00155
Lauren Goulding*, 
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引用次数: 0
Application of Numerical Experimental Design in Consequence Analysis of Chlorine Release Using Breeze Incident Analyst Software 数值实验设计在Breeze事件分析软件氯泄漏后果分析中的应用
IF 3.4 Pub Date : 2025-08-29 DOI: 10.1021/acs.chas.5c00026
Paulin Pah Yen Ling,  and , Mohamad Syazarudin Md Said*, 

Although various studies have applied numerical experimental design and response surface methodology (RSM) in combination with consequence modeling tools for gas dispersion prediction, there remains a need for a more generalizable and robust approach. Such an approach should account for diverse industrial settings, both offshore and onshore, and variable environmental conditions including atmospheric parameters, wind, and topography. This study integrates numerical experimental design with BREEZE Incident Analyst software to model chlorine gas dispersion in an industrial environment. The effects of five independent variables, which are wind speed, leakage hole diameter, release height, ambient temperature, and surface roughness, on the downwind distance to a specific toxic threshold level were investigated. Significant interactions were identified, while the release height was found to have a minimal influence on gas dispersion. Well-validated predictive models were developed using RSM, followed by optimization to identify the worst-case scenario, defined as the maximum downwind distance to the ERPG-2 level (3 ppm for chlorine). The optimization results indicated that the worst-case scenario occurs under conditions of 1.5 m/s wind speed, 0.076 m leakage diameter, 38 °C ambient temperature, and urban surface roughness. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of integrating numerical experimental design with consequence modeling to enhance the accuracy and reliability of gas dispersion predictions while minimizing uncertainties.

尽管各种研究已经将数值实验设计和响应面方法(RSM)与结果建模工具相结合,用于气体分散预测,但仍然需要一种更通用、更健壮的方法。这种方法应该考虑到不同的工业环境,包括海上和陆上,以及不同的环境条件,包括大气参数、风和地形。本研究将数值实验设计与BREEZE事件分析软件相结合,以模拟工业环境中的氯气分散。研究了风速、泄漏孔直径、释放高度、环境温度和表面粗糙度五个自变量对下风距离达到特定毒性阈值水平的影响。发现了显著的相互作用,而释放高度对气体分散的影响最小。使用RSM建立了经过验证的预测模型,然后进行优化以确定最坏情况,定义为最大下风距离ERPG-2水平(氯含量为3 ppm)。优化结果表明,在风速1.5 m/s、泄漏直径0.076 m、环境温度38℃、城市地表粗糙度条件下,最坏情况发生。该研究表明,将数值实验设计与结果建模相结合,可以提高气体分散预测的准确性和可靠性,同时最大限度地减少不确定性。
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引用次数: 0
A Scoping Review of Guidelines for Mercury Limits in Soil, Water, and Air: How Do Brazil’s Standards Compare to International and Developed Country Guidelines? 土壤、水和空气中汞限量指南的范围审查:巴西的标准与国际和发达国家的指南相比如何?
IF 3.4 Pub Date : 2025-08-18 DOI: 10.1021/acs.chas.5c00065
Maria Elena Crespo-Lopez*, , , Marcus Augusto-Oliveira*, , , Isabela Soares-Silva, , , Fernanda P. Arrifano, , , Camila Lago-Pinheiro, , , Gabriel Paiva-Canelas, , , Letícia Santos-Sacramento, , , Caio Gustavo Leal-Nazaré, , , Carlos B. A. de Souza, , , Marcelo Oliveira-da-Costa, , and , Gabriela P. Arrifano*, 

Mercury is a global problem for both human and environmental health. The Minamata Convention on Mercury entered into force in 2017, joining efforts of 151 countries, mostly in the Global South. Many of them are still in the process of incorporating these international concepts into domestic practice. This includes Brazil, which has been a signatory of the Convention since 2013. Since the country includes 70% of the Amazon, which is the region responsible for approximately 40% of the global emissions and 80% of South America′s emissions, it plays quite an important role in the Convention. For the successful implementation of the Convention, efforts must be made to bridge the gap between policymakers and academic knowledge when setting mercury limits. As a first step, this study followed the PRISMA-ScR guidelines and used references exclusively within this scope to perform a systematic search of guidelines with recommended limits for mercury in soil, water, and air. The documents retrieved by this approach were compared, bringing together insights and recommendations, especially for Brazil and the Amazonian context. While not exhaustive, the number, geographical diversity, and recency of the documents (guidelines) allow for the establishment of benchmarks through comparative analysis and the formulation of recommendations that could potentially be adopted by other Amazonian countries (or even other countries in the Global South), while respecting their specific differences.

汞对人类健康和环境健康都是一个全球性问题。《关于汞的水俣公约》在151个国家的共同努力下于2017年生效,其中大部分是全球南方国家。其中许多国家仍在将这些国际概念纳入国内实践的过程中。其中包括巴西,该国自2013年以来一直是该公约的签署国。由于该国拥有70%的亚马逊地区,而该地区的排放量约占全球排放量的40%,占南美洲排放量的80%,因此它在公约中扮演着相当重要的角色。为了成功实施《公约》,必须努力在制定汞限量时弥合决策者与学术知识之间的差距。作为第一步,本研究遵循PRISMA-ScR指南,并专门使用该范围内的参考文献,对土壤、水和空气中汞的推荐限量指南进行系统搜索。通过这种方法检索到的文件进行了比较,汇集了见解和建议,特别是针对巴西和亚马逊地区的情况。这些文件(准则)的数量、地理多样性和时代性虽然不是详尽无遗,但可以通过比较分析和提出建议来确立基准,这些建议可能被其他亚马逊国家(甚至全球南方的其他国家)采纳,同时尊重它们的具体差异。
{"title":"A Scoping Review of Guidelines for Mercury Limits in Soil, Water, and Air: How Do Brazil’s Standards Compare to International and Developed Country Guidelines?","authors":"Maria Elena Crespo-Lopez*,&nbsp;, ,&nbsp;Marcus Augusto-Oliveira*,&nbsp;, ,&nbsp;Isabela Soares-Silva,&nbsp;, ,&nbsp;Fernanda P. Arrifano,&nbsp;, ,&nbsp;Camila Lago-Pinheiro,&nbsp;, ,&nbsp;Gabriel Paiva-Canelas,&nbsp;, ,&nbsp;Letícia Santos-Sacramento,&nbsp;, ,&nbsp;Caio Gustavo Leal-Nazaré,&nbsp;, ,&nbsp;Carlos B. A. de Souza,&nbsp;, ,&nbsp;Marcelo Oliveira-da-Costa,&nbsp;, and ,&nbsp;Gabriela P. Arrifano*,&nbsp;","doi":"10.1021/acs.chas.5c00065","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.chas.5c00065","url":null,"abstract":"<p >Mercury is a global problem for both human and environmental health. The Minamata Convention on Mercury entered into force in 2017, joining efforts of 151 countries, mostly in the Global South. Many of them are still in the process of incorporating these international concepts into domestic practice. This includes Brazil, which has been a signatory of the Convention since 2013. Since the country includes 70% of the Amazon, which is the region responsible for approximately 40% of the global emissions and 80% of South America′s emissions, it plays quite an important role in the Convention. For the successful implementation of the Convention, efforts must be made to bridge the gap between policymakers and academic knowledge when setting mercury limits. As a first step, this study followed the PRISMA-ScR guidelines and used references exclusively within this scope to perform a systematic search of guidelines with recommended limits for mercury in soil, water, and air. The documents retrieved by this approach were compared, bringing together insights and recommendations, especially for Brazil and the Amazonian context. While not exhaustive, the number, geographical diversity, and recency of the documents (guidelines) allow for the establishment of benchmarks through comparative analysis and the formulation of recommendations that could potentially be adopted by other Amazonian countries (or even other countries in the Global South), while respecting their specific differences.</p>","PeriodicalId":73648,"journal":{"name":"Journal of chemical health & safety","volume":"32 5","pages":"548–565"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4,"publicationDate":"2025-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs.chas.5c00065","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145104042","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Chemical Hazard Assessment of Asymmetric Vanadium Flow Battery Electrolytes in Failure Mode 非对称钒液流电池失效模式下电解液的化学危害评价
IF 3.4 Pub Date : 2025-08-12 DOI: 10.1021/acs.chas.5c00098
Kourosh Khaje, , , Behzad Fuladpanjeh-Hojaghan, , , Jürgen Gailer, , , Viola Birss, , and , Edward P. L. Roberts*, 

Emerging battery technologies are transforming the landscape of energy storage. Within this domain, flow batteries are increasingly seen as critical enablers for the integration and deployment of renewable energy systems. Nevertheless, the electrolytes utilized in these systems present potential risks to both human health and environmental safety. Over the past five decades, vanadium–vanadium flow batteries have become a commercially viable solution; however, several distinct electrolyte compositions have been proposed for asymmetric vanadium flow batteries (V-X FB: X = Ce, Br, Fe, Mn, Zn, H2, O2), each driven by unique technical and commercial motivations. This study aims to evaluate their risks, prioritize further research investments, and identify gaps in current efforts to advance safer and more sustainable energy storage technologies. This research builds on our prior work, entitled Chemical Hazard Assessment of Vanadium–Vanadium Flow Battery Electrolytes in Failure Mode, [ Khaje, K. ACS Chem. Health Saf. 2025, 32, 449–460]. But shifts the focus to asymmetric vanadium flow batteries that are at a lower technology readiness level and are earlier in the commercialization pathway. Overcharging of batteries has been identified as one of the primary potential failure modes, directly leading to electrolyte degradation. This condition poses significant hazards due to the potential generation of toxic gases. Depending on the electrolyte composition, overcharging may result in the release of gases, such as Cl2, Br2, SO2, H2S, PH3, NO2, CO2, NH3, or HCN, each carrying immediate risks to human health. This study shows that electrolytes containing bromide, chloride, and cyanide ions are particularly concerning, as they present the most severe toxicity hazards during failure modes. Future experimental work is needed to evaluate conditions under which gases are produced by these flow batteries under both normal and severe overcharging conditions and to quantify the associated hazards. This will provide critical insights for improving battery safety and guiding future research and development in energy storage technologies.

新兴的电池技术正在改变能源储存的格局。在这一领域,液流电池越来越被视为可再生能源系统集成和部署的关键推手。然而,这些系统中使用的电解质对人类健康和环境安全都存在潜在风险。在过去的五十年里,钒-钒液流电池已经成为一种商业上可行的解决方案;然而,对于不对称钒液流电池,已经提出了几种不同的电解质成分(V-X FB: X = Ce, Br, Fe, Mn, Zn, H2, O2),每种成分都有独特的技术和商业动机。本研究旨在评估其风险,确定进一步研究投资的优先顺序,并确定当前推进更安全和更可持续的储能技术的努力中的差距。这项研究建立在我们之前的工作基础上,题为“失效模式下钒-钒液流电池电解质的化学危害评估”,[Khaje, K. ACS Chem]。中华卫生杂志,2014,32(2):449-460。但将重点转移到不对称钒液流电池上,这种电池的技术成熟度较低,处于商业化道路的较早阶段。电池过充是电池主要的潜在失效模式之一,它直接导致电池电解液的退化。由于可能产生有毒气体,这种情况造成重大危害。根据电解液组成的不同,过充可能导致Cl2、Br2、SO2、H2S、PH3、NO2、CO2、NH3或HCN等气体的释放,这些气体对人体健康有直接的危害。这项研究表明,含有溴化物、氯化物和氰化物离子的电解质尤其令人担忧,因为它们在失效模式下呈现出最严重的毒性危害。未来的实验工作需要评估这些液流电池在正常和严重过充条件下产生气体的条件,并量化相关的危害。这将为提高电池安全性和指导未来储能技术的研究和开发提供关键见解。
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引用次数: 0
Investigation on the Synergy Effect of Water Mist and Porous Medium on the Gas Explosion under Different Equivalence Ratios 不同当量比下细水雾和多孔介质对瓦斯爆炸协同效应的研究
IF 3.4 Pub Date : 2025-08-05 DOI: 10.1021/acs.chas.5c00097
Kang Cen, , , Yanling Yang*, , , Yulong Duan, , , Hongfu Mi, , , Gang Xi*, , and , Shuo Wang, 

As the operating years of the underground integrated pipe increase and the aging of various pipelines progresses, as well as coal mining operations, the potential risks of fire and explosion gradually rise. To effectively alleviate the harm caused by explosion accidents, a synergistic suppression method is proposed. This paper aimed to study the synergistic effects of porous sliding devices and water mist on methane/air explosions with different equivalent ratios by changing the porosity of porous medium and spray pressure. The results indicate that the combined use of porous sliding devices and water mist yields better synergistic suppression effects in terms of the explosion overpressure and the flame propagation velocity. Based on the orthogonal test results, the optimal synergistic combination was obtained, that is, a porosity of 60 PPI and a spray pressure of 0.1 MPa. The flame propagation velocity with Φ = 1.0 decreases by 17.91%, and the peak overpressure rate of explosion decreases by 34.72%. In addition, the relationship between explosion energy, flame propagation velocity, and explosion overpressure is established according to the Buckingham Π theorem. The establishment of the model and the experimental results have important theoretical significance for evaluating the degree of explosion risk after the addition of synergistic devices. Finally, the suppression mechanism of the synergistic device in the methane/air explosion process was elucidated by combining the key free radicals and basic reactions involved in the methane explosion process through chemical kinetics simulations. This study can provide numerical data support and a theoretical reference for active suppression systems applied in realistic scenarios.

随着地下综合管道使用年限的增加和各种管道老化的推进,以及煤矿开采作业,火灾爆炸的潜在风险逐渐上升。为了有效减轻爆炸事故的危害,提出了一种协同抑制方法。本文旨在通过改变多孔介质孔隙率和喷雾压力,研究多孔滑动装置和水雾对不同当量比的甲烷/空气爆炸的协同效应。结果表明,多孔滑动装置与水雾的联合使用在爆炸超压和火焰传播速度方面具有较好的协同抑制效果。根据正交试验结果,得到了最佳的协同组合,即孔隙率为60 PPI,喷射压力为0.1 MPa。当Φ = 1.0时,火焰传播速度降低了17.91%,爆炸峰值超压率降低了34.72%。此外,根据Buckingham Π定理建立了爆炸能量、火焰传播速度与爆炸超压之间的关系。该模型的建立和实验结果对评价增效装置后的爆炸危险程度具有重要的理论意义。最后,通过化学动力学模拟,结合甲烷爆炸过程中涉及的关键自由基和碱性反应,阐明了协同装置在甲烷/空气爆炸过程中的抑制机理。该研究可为主动抑制系统在实际应用中提供数值数据支持和理论参考。
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引用次数: 0
A Study on Risk Control Methods for Urban Gas Pipeline Leak and Explosion 城市燃气管道泄漏爆炸风险控制方法研究
IF 3.4 Pub Date : 2025-08-02 DOI: 10.1021/acs.chas.5c00069
Hankun Li, , , Renren Zhang*, , , Runquan Li*, , , Jie Ma, , , Jinhao Wen, , , Songwenbo Chen, , and , Xinhong Li, 

To prevent explosion accidents arising from urban gas pipeline leaks, it is crucial to understand both the factors that lead to pipeline failure and the mechanisms that govern the evolution of accident consequences, thereby enabling the development of comprehensive preleak risk management and postleak emergency response strategies. This study employs Bayesian networks (BN) and influence diagrams (ID) to establish a robust risk control model for urban gas pipeline leak and explosion incidents. Based on pipeline installation scenarios, the pipelines are segmented to identify failure risk factors in each section, resulting in the construction of a BN model for pipeline failures; subsequently, event sequence diagrams (ESD) are utilized to analyze the evolutionary pathways of accident consequences, which are then translated into a BN model and integrated with the pipeline failure BN model to form a complete framework that captures both failure mechanisms and accident outcomes. Key risk factors are identified and corresponding control measures are proposed, leading to the development of a Bayesian ID model that comprehensively considers the effectiveness and cost implications of these measures in order to select the optimal risk control strategy.

为了防止城市燃气管道泄漏引起的爆炸事故,了解导致管道失效的因素和控制事故后果演变的机制至关重要,从而能够制定全面的泄漏前风险管理和泄漏后应急响应策略。本研究采用贝叶斯网络(BN)和影响图(ID)建立了城市燃气管道泄漏爆炸事件的鲁棒风险控制模型。根据管道安装场景,对管道进行分段,识别每段管道的失效风险因素,构建管道失效BN模型;随后,利用事件序列图(event sequence diagrams, ESD)分析事故后果的演化路径,然后将其转化为BN模型,并与管道失效BN模型集成,形成一个既能捕获失效机制又能捕获事故结果的完整框架。识别关键风险因素并提出相应的控制措施,从而建立贝叶斯ID模型,该模型综合考虑这些措施的有效性和成本影响,以选择最优的风险控制策略。
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引用次数: 0
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