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Modeling Fuzzy Fidelity: Using Microsimulation to Explore Age, Period, and Cohort Effects in Secularization 建模模糊保真度:使用微观模拟探索世俗化中的年龄、时期和队列效应
Pub Date : 2022-10-14 DOI: 10.1163/2589742x-bja10012
Ivan Puga‐Gonzalez, David Voas, Lukasz Kiszkiel, R. J. Bacon, W. Wildman, K. Talmont-kaminski, F. Shults
This article presents a microsimulation that explores age, period, and cohort effects in the decline of religiosity in contemporary societies. The model implements a well-known and previously empirically validated theory of secularization that highlights the role of “fuzzy fidelity,” i.e., the percentage of a population whose religiosity is moderate (Voas 2009). Validation of the model involved comparing its simulation results to shifts in religiosity over 9 waves of the European Social Survey. Simulation experiments suggest that a cohort effect, based on weakened transmission of religiosity as a function of the social environment, appears to be the best explanation for secularization in the societies studied, both for the population as a whole and for the proportions of religious, fuzzy, and secular people.
这篇文章提出了一个微观模拟,探讨年龄,时期和群体的影响,在宗教信仰的下降在当代社会。该模型实现了一个众所周知的、先前经过经验验证的世俗化理论,该理论强调了“模糊保真度”的作用,即宗教信仰适度的人口的百分比(Voas 2009)。该模型的验证包括将其模拟结果与欧洲社会调查的9波宗教信仰变化进行比较。模拟实验表明,基于宗教信仰作为社会环境功能的弱化传播的群体效应,似乎是所研究社会中世俗化的最佳解释,无论是对整体人口还是对宗教、模糊和世俗人口的比例。
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引用次数: 0
Threat or Godsend? Evangelicals and Democracy in Latin America. 威胁还是天赐?拉丁美洲的福音派与民主。
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 Epub Date: 2022-10-14 DOI: 10.1163/2589742x-bja10015
Matthew Blanton

While Protestant and Evangelical groups started as small minorities in Latin America, they have recently experienced explosive growth and now make up a large proportion of the region's religious faithful. This unexpected shift led to a spate of scholarship speculating as to how the new Evangelical communities would impact society. Given the perennial concern over the health of democracy in Latin America, much of this work focused on how Evangelicals might differ from Catholics in terms of support for democratic values and civic participation. Some predicted that Evangelicals would be eager supporters of democracy and an active, positive force in the community. Others warned that Evangelicals were too focused on spiritual matters, which would lead to apathy and a passive acceptance of authoritarianism. This paper uses recent survey data from sixteen nations in Latin America to test these theories with the goal of answering the question: are Evangelicals a threat or godsend for democracy in Latin America?

虽然新教和福音派团体最初是拉丁美洲的少数民族,但最近经历了爆炸性的增长,现在在该地区的宗教信徒中占很大比例。这一出人意料的转变引发了大量学者对新福音派社区将如何影响社会的猜测。鉴于人们对拉丁美洲民主健康状况的长期担忧,这项工作的大部分内容都集中在福音派在支持民主价值观和公民参与方面可能与天主教徒有何不同。一些人预测,福音派将是民主的热心支持者,也是社区中一股积极、积极的力量。其他人警告说,福音派过于关注精神问题,这将导致冷漠和被动接受威权主义。本文使用来自拉丁美洲16个国家的最新调查数据来检验这些理论,目的是回答这样一个问题:福音派是拉丁美洲民主的威胁还是天赐之物?
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引用次数: 0
Charismatic Christianity’s Impact on Growth and Revival in Singapore: The Case of the Methodist Church from 1889–2012 灵恩基督教对新加坡成长与复兴的影响:以1889-2012年的卫理公会为例
Pub Date : 2021-12-16 DOI: 10.1163/2589742x-12347113
Justin E. Lane
This paper aims to explain patterns of Charismatic revival by utilizing a quantitative lens on church growth in Singapore during the mid-1900s. The research digitized and then analyzed data from the archives of the Methodist Church of Singapore between the years 1889 and 2012. The annual conference reports recorded several variables over this 123-year period such as church membership, baptisms, and professions of faith. In recent years, it also records the average Sunday attendance at each of 23 churches throughout Singapore. This paper presents a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the historical data and concludes that, in line with predictions from the cognitive science of religion (CSR), religious revival can serve to energize religious communities that are primarily reliant on rituals with high frequency and low-arousal (see Whitehouse 2004). Typically, high frequency and low-arousal rituals allow for high levels of consensus and social identification among large religious groups. However, as a byproduct of their high frequency and low-arousal, the repeated rituals are predicted to suffer from the effects of tedium, which lowers motivation for the information presented during the rituals and can have negative effects on group cohesion. The ethnographic and historical records investigated within the theory of Divergent Modes of Religiosity (DMR) have suggested that short bursts of reinvigoration can be used to revitalize motivation in doctrinal religions. While the data from Singapore’s Clock Tower Revival events in the 1970s suggest that such an event did occur, the DMR, as traditionally formulated, is unable to capture the dynamics of Singaporean Christian demographics because 1) it does not clearly account for the high number of converts who have entered the religion and 2) it cannot account for the sustained presence of high-arousal rituals in the Pentecostal and Charismatic churches in Singapore since the Clock Tower Revival. Demographic data from Singapore, in particular the Singaporean Methodist church, complicate CSR’s current approach to tedium because it appears that the religious communities in Singapore have not only sustained their motivation, they have grown since the initial revival period in the 1970s, suggesting that new amendments to our approach to tedium in doctrinal religions may be appropriate (Lane, 2021, 2019; Lane, Shults, & McCauley, 2019). As such, this paper discusses how the data from the Methodist church in Singapore are more easily explained through the use of a new approach toward understanding social cohesion in religions that relies on a cognitive (i.e., information processing) approach that links social and personal information schemas with rehearsal, memory, and personal experiences. The theory also aims to formulate its claims with sufficient specificity to be modeled in computer simulations (Lane 2018, 2013) to be further tested against other historical groups, which this paper discusses in regards
本文旨在通过对20世纪中期新加坡教会发展的定量研究来解释魅力复兴的模式。这项研究对1889年至2012年间新加坡卫理公会档案中的数据进行了数字化,然后进行了分析。年度会议报告记录了这123年期间的几个变量,如教会成员、洗礼和信仰职业。近年来,它还记录了新加坡23座教堂周日的平均上座率。本文对历史数据进行了定性和定量分析,得出的结论是,根据宗教认知科学(CSR)的预测,宗教复兴可以为主要依赖高频率和低唤醒仪式的宗教社区注入活力(见Whitehouse 2004)。通常,高频率和低唤醒仪式允许大型宗教团体之间达成高度共识和社会认同。然而,作为高频率和低唤醒的副产品,重复的仪式预计会受到乏味的影响,这会降低人们对仪式中提供的信息的动机,并可能对群体凝聚力产生负面影响。在不同宗教模式理论(DMR)中调查的民族志和历史记录表明,短暂的复兴可以用来重振教义宗教的动机。虽然20世纪70年代新加坡钟楼复兴事件的数据表明确实发生了这样的事件,但传统意义上的DMR,无法捕捉新加坡基督教人口统计的动态,因为1)它不能清楚地解释进入该宗教的大量皈依者,2)它不能解释自钟楼复兴以来新加坡五旬节教堂和魅力教堂持续存在的高唤醒仪式。来自新加坡的人口统计数据,特别是新加坡卫理公会的数据,使CSR目前处理乏味的方法复杂化,因为新加坡的宗教团体似乎不仅保持了他们的动机,而且自20世纪70年代的最初复兴期以来,他们一直在发展,这表明,对我们在教义宗教中处理乏味的方法进行新的修正可能是合适的(Lane,2021,2019;Lane,Shults,&McCauley,2019)。因此,本文讨论了如何通过使用一种新的方法来理解宗教中的社会凝聚力,从而更容易地解释来自新加坡卫理公会的数据,这种方法依赖于一种认知(即信息处理)方法,该方法将社会和个人信息图式与排练、记忆和个人经历联系起来。该理论还旨在制定其主张,使其具有足够的特异性,以便在计算机模拟中建模(Lane 20182013),并针对其他历史群体进行进一步测试,本文就未来的研究方向进行了讨论。
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引用次数: 0
Projecting Global Religious Populations, 2020–50 2020-50年全球宗教人口预测
Pub Date : 2021-12-16 DOI: 10.1163/2589742x-12347114
T. Johnson, Peter F. Crossing
This article presents a series of projections for religious communities worldwide from 2020 to 2050. It offers details related to the projection methodology used to generate the estimates and comments on trends and patterns among Christians, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists, agnostics, and atheists. It concludes with suggestions on how such projections might be improved in the future.
本文介绍了2020年至2050年全球宗教社区的一系列预测。它提供了与预测方法有关的细节,该方法用于生成对基督徒、穆斯林、印度教徒、佛教徒、不可知论者和无神论者的趋势和模式的估计和评论。报告最后就今后如何改进这种预测提出了建议。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring the Size of the U.S. Jewish Population: New Estimates from a Pew Research Center Survey of Jewish Americans 衡量美国犹太人口规模:皮尤研究中心对犹太裔美国人调查的新估计
Pub Date : 2021-12-16 DOI: 10.1163/2589742x-12347112
C. Hackett, Jacob Ausubel
This paper presents new estimates of the U.S. Jewish population based on a 2019–2020 Pew Research Center survey, which used a stratified address-based sample of all Americans to screen more than 68,000 respondents and complete full interviews with more than 5,800 adults who are Jewish or have some kind of connection to Judaism. We estimate there are about 5.8 million adult Jews living in the United States, including 4.2 million who identify as Jewish by religion and 1.5 million who are Jews of no religion. In addition, 1.8 million children live with at least one adult Jew and are being raised Jewish in some way. Altogether, about 7.5 million people, or 2.4% of the total U.S. population, are Jewish. We present population estimates for additional detailed categories of Jewish adults and children in Jewish households that not available in any other recent source.
本文根据皮尤研究中心2019-2020年的一项调查,对美国犹太人口进行了新的估计,该调查对所有美国人进行了分层地址抽样,筛选了68,000多名受访者,并对5800多名犹太人或与犹太教有某种联系的成年人进行了全面采访。我们估计大约有580万成年犹太人生活在美国,其中420万人因宗教信仰而被认定为犹太人,150万人是无宗教信仰的犹太人。此外,180万儿童与至少一名成年犹太人生活在一起,并以某种方式被犹太人抚养长大。总共约有750万人是犹太人,占美国总人口的2.4%。我们提供了犹太家庭中犹太成人和儿童的额外详细类别的人口估计,这在任何其他近期来源中都无法获得。
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引用次数: 1
The Fertility of Female Immigrants to Europe from Christian and Muslim Countries 从基督教和穆斯林国家到欧洲的女性移民的生育能力
Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.1163/2589742x-12347109
M. Blekesaune
This article investigates the fertility of female immigrants to Europe in relation to the characteristics of individual women (n=1,667), their countries of origin in Africa, Asia and Latin-America (n=68) and the European country where they reside (n=22), using the European Social Survey (ESS) collected between 2010 and 2017 (rounds 5 to 8). Many immigrants have fertility outcomes that converge towards the native fertility of their country of residence in Europe, a surprisingly strong factor. Immigrants from Muslim countries have higher fertility, though, and they compress their fertility over fewer years than immigrants from Christian countries. Multivariate estimates indicate that the effects of fertility rates and religious composition of countries of origin and individual religiousness are of similar magnitude for post-migration fertility rates. The highest fertility outcomes are found among highly religious immigrants from Muslim countries migrating to relatively high fertility countries in Europe at an early fertile age.
本文利用2010年至2017年(第5轮至第8轮)收集的欧洲社会调查(ESS),调查了欧洲女性移民的生育率与个体女性(n=1,667),非洲,亚洲和拉丁美洲原籍国(n=68)以及她们居住的欧洲国家(n=22)的特征有关。许多移民的生育率结果趋同于其在欧洲居住国的本地生育率,这是一个令人惊讶的强大因素。不过,来自穆斯林国家的移民生育率更高,而且与来自基督教国家的移民相比,他们在更短的时间内压缩了生育率。多变量估计表明,生育率和原籍国的宗教构成以及个人宗教信仰对移民后生育率的影响程度相似。在生育年龄较早的时候,从穆斯林国家移居到欧洲生育率相对较高的国家的高度宗教移民的生育率最高。
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引用次数: 3
Religious Affiliation and Environmental Challenges in the 21st Century 宗教信仰与21世纪的环境挑战
Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.1163/2589742x-12347110
V. Skirbekk, A. Sherbinin, S. Adamo, J. Navarro, Tricia Chai-Onn
There is lack of studies of global variation in religious affiliation alongside environmental change worldwide. The aim of the current study is to help fill this gap by exploring variation in religious affiliation alongside environmental change worldwide. We study this relationship by analysing religious affiliation, a variety of environmental stressors and environmental outcomes.
缺乏对宗教信仰的全球变化以及全球环境变化的研究。目前这项研究的目的是通过探索世界范围内宗教信仰的变化和环境变化来帮助填补这一空白。我们通过分析宗教信仰、各种环境压力源和环境结果来研究这种关系。
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引用次数: 9
Gender Violence and the Price of Virginity: Theory and Evidence of Incomplete Marriage Contracts 性别暴力与童贞的代价:不完整婚姻契约的理论与证据
Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.1163/2589742x-12347108
Daniel L. Chen
This paper builds and tests a model of marriage as an incomplete contract that arises from asymmetric virginity premiums and examines whether this can lead to social inefficiencies. Contrary to the efficient households hypothesis, women cannot prevent being appropriated by men once they enter marriage if they command lower marriage market opportunities upon divorce. Because men cannot or do not commit to compensating women for their lower ex post marriage market opportunities, marriage is an incomplete contract. Men may seek to lower women’s ex ante “market wages” in order to induce entry into joint production. Inefficient or abusive marriages are less likely to separate. Equalizing virginity premiums may reduce domestic and non-domestic violence.Female circumcision and prices women pay doctors to appear virgin before marriage in many countries suggest asymmetric virginity premiums continue to exist. Evidence from China and the US suggest asymmetric virginity premiums persist over economic development. Asymmetric virginity premiums are strongly positively correlated with female but not male virginity premiums. I use variation in religious upbringing to help estimate the effect of virginity premiums on gender violence in the US. The OLS relationship between virginity premiums and female reports of forced sex may be biased downwards if shame is associated with abuse and this shame is greater for women with higher virginity premiums. But the OLS relationship for males might not be biased downwards. Asymmetric virginity premiums are positively correlated with men forcing sex on women and paying women for sex. The model complements a growing empirical literature on inefficient households and human rights abuses, visible manifestations of female appropriability across time and space.
本文建立并检验了一个由不对称贞洁溢价引起的不完整契约的婚姻模型,并检验了这是否会导致社会效率低下。与有效家庭假说相反,如果女性在离婚时获得较少的婚姻市场机会,她们就无法防止自己一旦进入婚姻就被男性占有。因为男性不能或不愿意补偿女性婚后市场机会的减少,婚姻是一份不完整的契约。男子可能设法降低妇女事先的“市场工资”,以诱使她们参加联合生产。低效率或受虐待的婚姻不太可能离婚。使童贞奖金平等可以减少家庭暴力和非家庭暴力。在许多国家,女性割礼和女性向医生支付婚前处女的费用表明,不对称的处女溢价仍然存在。来自中国和美国的证据表明,不对称的贞洁溢价在经济发展过程中依然存在。不对称贞操溢价与女性呈显著正相关,而与男性无显著正相关。我用宗教教育的差异来帮助估计童贞奖励对美国性别暴力的影响。如果羞耻感与虐待有关,那么贞操溢价与女性强迫性行为报告之间的OLS关系可能会向下倾斜,而且对于贞操溢价较高的女性来说,这种羞耻感更大。但男性的OLS关系可能不会向下倾斜。不对称的贞操溢价与男性强迫女性发生性行为和支付女性性行为呈正相关。该模型补充了越来越多的关于低效家庭和侵犯人权的实证文献,这些都是跨越时间和空间的女性适宜性的明显表现。
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引用次数: 9
Editor’s Introduction 编辑器的介绍
Pub Date : 2020-10-06 DOI: 10.1163/2589742x-12347106
Gina A. Zurlo, Vegard Skirbekk
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引用次数: 0
Like Parent, Like Millennial: Inherited and Switched (Non)Religion among Young Adults in the U.S. and Canada 像父母一样,像千禧一代:在美国和加拿大的年轻人中继承和改变(非)宗教
Pub Date : 2020-05-27 DOI: 10.1163/2589742x-12347103
Sarah Wilkins-Laflamme
Using novel quantitative data from the Millennial Trends Survey administered online in March 2019 with over 2,500 respondents between the ages of 18 and 35 in both Canada and the U.S., we examine in detail inherited (non)religion as well as intergenerational conversion and disaffiliation among young adult birth cohorts. Key results include approximately two thirds of Millennials in our sample belonging to the same (non)religious tradition of at least one of their parents. Among the remaining one third who did have a different religious (non)affiliation than their parents at the time of the survey, intergenerational disaffiliation was the most common change present: especially in Canada, but also in the U.S. Intergenerational retention of nonreligion among families where both parents are nonreligious are especially high among Millennials in both countries, a characteristic of this generation’s much more secular social milieu.
我们利用2019年3月在线进行的千禧趋势调查(Millennial Trends Survey)的新颖定量数据,对加拿大和美国2500多名年龄在18岁至35岁之间的受访者进行了调查,详细研究了年轻成年出生队列中继承(非)宗教以及代际转换和脱离宗教的情况。主要结果包括,在我们的样本中,大约三分之二的千禧一代与父母中的至少一位拥有相同(非)宗教传统。在剩下的三分之一在调查时与父母有不同宗教信仰的人中,代际分离是最常见的变化:尤其是在加拿大,但在美国也是如此。在两国的千禧一代中,父母双方都不信教的家庭中,代际不信教的比例尤其高,这是这一代更加世俗的社会环境的一个特征。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Journal of religion and demography
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