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Multimorbidity as a multistage disease process. 多病是一个多阶段的疾病过程。
IF 3.8 Q2 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-30 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf410
Anthony J Webster

There is a growing proportion of people with several disease conditions ("multimorbidity"), placing increasing demands on healthcare systems. One hypothesis is that clusters of diseases may arise from shared underlying disease processes (shared "pathogenesis"), whereby the presence of one disease indicates the state of disease progression to several related disease types. This article explains how this hypothesis can be tested using observational data for disease incidence. Specifically, a multistage model is used to test whether two diseases can have a "shared stage" or "step," before either disease can occur, and how the unobserved rate of this step can be determined. The approach offers a simple method for studying multiple diseases and identifying shared underlying causes of multiple conditions and is illustrated with published data and numerical examples. The fundamental mathematical model is analyzed to compare key statistical properties such as the expectation and variance with those of independent diseases. The main results do not need an understanding of the underlying mathematics and can be appreciated by a nonexpert.

患有多种疾病(“多病”)的人群比例不断增加,对卫生保健系统提出了越来越高的要求。一种假设是,疾病集群可能来自共同的潜在疾病过程(共同的“发病机制”),因此,一种疾病的存在表明疾病进展到几种相关疾病类型的状态。本文解释了如何使用疾病发病率的观察数据来检验这一假设。具体来说,多阶段模型用于测试两种疾病在任何一种疾病发生之前是否可以具有“共享阶段”或“共享步骤”,以及如何确定该步骤的未观察率。该方法为研究多种疾病和确定多种病症的共同潜在原因提供了一种简单的方法,并用已发表的数据和数值示例进行了说明。对基本数学模型进行了分析,以便将期望和方差等关键统计特性与独立疾病的统计特性进行比较。主要结果不需要理解基础数学,非专业人员也能理解。
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引用次数: 0
Mechanistic interplay between information spreading and opinion polarization. 信息传播与意见两极化之间的机制相互作用。
IF 3.8 Q2 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-30 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf402
Kleber Andrade Oliveira, Henrique Ferraz de Arruda, Yamir Moreno

We investigate how information-spreading mechanisms affect opinion dynamics and vice versa via an agent-based simulation on adaptive social networks. First, we characterize the impact of reposting on user behavior with limited memory, a feature that introduces novel system states. Then, we build an experiment mimicking information-limiting environments seen on social media platforms and study how the model parameters can determine the configuration of opinions. In this scenario, different posting behaviors may sustain polarization or reverse it. We further show the adaptability of the model by calibrating it to reproduce the statistical organization of information cascades as seen empirically in a microblogging social media platform. Our model combines mechanisms for platform content recommendation, connection rewiring, and limited-attention user behavior, paving the way for a robust understanding of echo chambers as a specialized phenomenon of opinion polarization.

我们研究了信息传播机制如何影响意见动态,反之亦然,通过基于代理的模拟自适应社会网络。首先,我们描述了在有限内存下转发对用户行为的影响,这一特性引入了新的系统状态。然后,我们建立了一个模拟社交媒体平台上的信息限制环境的实验,并研究了模型参数如何确定意见的配置。在这种情况下,不同的发帖行为可能会维持两极分化或逆转两极分化。我们进一步通过校准模型来重现信息级联的统计组织(如在微博社交媒体平台上看到的经验)来显示模型的适应性。我们的模型结合了平台内容推荐、连接重新布线和有限注意力用户行为的机制,为将回音室作为一种意见两极分化的特殊现象进行强有力的理解铺平了道路。
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引用次数: 0
Soluble CD14 promotes Th17 expansion and differentiation through gamma-aminobutyric acid and expands infidel innate lymphoid cells. 可溶性CD14通过γ -氨基丁酸促进Th17的扩增和分化,并扩大异质先天淋巴样细胞。
IF 3.8 Q2 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-29 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf406
Shima Shahbaz, Amirhossein Rahmati, Hussain Syed, Shokrollah Elahi

Interleukin-17 (IL-17) plays a central role in the pathogenesis of various autoimmune diseases. Soluble CD14 (sCD14), a marker of innate immune activation, is elevated in several inflammatory conditions. However, its influence on IL-17 production and the differentiation of Th17 cells remains poorly understood. We found that sCD14 enhances Th17-associated cytokine production and up-regulates critical transcription factors such as STAT3 and RORC. Notably, sCD14's effect on Th17 polarization was mediated indirectly through autologous sCD14-treated peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) supernatant (sCD14-PBMC-Sup). Additionally, we identified a distinct cytokine profile enriched for pro-inflammatory cytokines and chemokines in sCD14-treated T cells, further reinforcing the Th17-promoting role of sCD14. Interestingly, gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), a metabolite elevated in sCD14-treated monocytes, was identified as a potential contributor to Th17 polarization. GABA supplementation in T-cell cultures enhanced IL-17A secretion, indicating its role as a signaling molecule in T-cell differentiation. Our findings also revealed the expansion of innate lymphoid cell (ILC)2/3-like cells in T-cell cultures exposed to sCD14-PBMC-Sup and GABA, highlighting the potential role of monocytes in Th17-mediated immunity. Furthermore, while sCD14 promoted Th17 polarization, it simultaneously impaired T-cell activation and proliferation, suggesting an immunosuppressive effect mediated by soluble factors released from monocytes. These results underscore the dual role of sCD14 in modulating T-cell responses, promoting Th17 differentiation while suppressing T-cell effector functions. This study identifies a previously unrecognized role for sCD14 in promoting Th17 induction, highlighting its contribution to immune regulation and its potential as a therapeutic target in Th17-driven autoimmune conditions. Classification: Immunology.

白细胞介素-17 (IL-17)在多种自身免疫性疾病的发病机制中起核心作用。可溶性CD14 (sCD14)是先天免疫激活的标志物,在几种炎症条件下升高。然而,其对IL-17产生和Th17细胞分化的影响尚不清楚。我们发现sCD14增强了th17相关细胞因子的产生,并上调了STAT3和RORC等关键转录因子。值得注意的是,sCD14对Th17极化的影响是通过自体经sCD14处理的外周血单个核细胞(PBMC)上清(sCD14- pmc - sup)间接介导的。此外,我们在sCD14处理的T细胞中发现了一种独特的细胞因子谱,富含促炎细胞因子和趋化因子,进一步强化了sCD14促进th17的作用。有趣的是,γ -氨基丁酸(GABA),一种在scd14处理的单核细胞中升高的代谢物,被确定为Th17极化的潜在因素。在t细胞培养物中补充GABA可增强IL-17A的分泌,表明IL-17A在t细胞分化过程中是一种信号分子。我们的研究结果还揭示了暴露于scd14 - pmc - sup和GABA的t细胞培养中先天淋巴样细胞(ILC)2/3样细胞的扩增,突出了单核细胞在th17介导的免疫中的潜在作用。此外,sCD14在促进Th17极化的同时,也会损害t细胞的活化和增殖,提示其免疫抑制作用是由单核细胞释放的可溶性因子介导的。这些结果强调了sCD14在调节t细胞反应中的双重作用,促进Th17分化,同时抑制t细胞效应功能。本研究确定了sCD14在促进Th17诱导中的先前未被认识的作用,突出了其对免疫调节的贡献及其作为Th17驱动的自身免疫性疾病的治疗靶点的潜力。分类:免疫学。
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引用次数: 0
Correction to: From transcripts to trajectories: A framework for studying academic pathways through college. 更正:从成绩单到轨迹:一个通过大学学习学术途径的框架。
IF 3.8 Q2 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-26 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf395

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf210.].

[这更正了文章DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf210.]。
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引用次数: 0
Political ideology and scientific communication shape human perceptions of pollen seasons. 政治意识形态和科学传播塑造了人类对花粉季节的认知。
IF 3.8 Q2 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-26 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf386
Yiluan Song, Adam Millard-Ball, Nathan Fox, Derek Van Berkel, Arun Agrawal, Kai Zhu

Climate change is altering the timing and intensity of pollen seasons, increasing human exposure to allergenic pollen. Climate-driven changes in pollen seasons present a unique opportunity to craft messaging that communicates how climate change is affecting biological systems. However, it is unclear how pollen seasons are experienced and understood by the public, including how well we detect pollen seasons and what factors we view as responsible for changes in pollen seasons. Here, we use social media data (Twitter) in the United States from 2012 to 2022 to assess public perceptions of pollen seasons across the country. We find that pollen seasons detected by social media users are consistent with natural pollen seasons. Attribution of changing pollen seasons, however, varies based on political ideology: liberal users are more likely to attribute changing pollen seasons to climate change when compared with conservative users. Mass media and scientific experts shape communication about how climate change drives changes in pollen seasons. Our findings reveal how political ideology and scientific communication affect public perceptions of pollen seasons and climate change. Our findings are a key step towards improved communication of climate change impacts.

气候变化正在改变花粉季节的时间和强度,增加了人类接触致敏花粉的机会。气候驱动的花粉季节变化提供了一个独特的机会,可以传递气候变化如何影响生物系统的信息。然而,目前尚不清楚公众是如何体验和理解花粉季节的,包括我们对花粉季节的检测程度,以及我们认为导致花粉季节变化的因素。在这里,我们使用2012年至2022年美国的社交媒体数据(Twitter)来评估全国公众对花粉季节的看法。我们发现社交媒体用户检测到的花粉季节与自然花粉季节一致。然而,花粉季节变化的归因因政治意识形态而异:与保守用户相比,自由派用户更有可能将花粉季节变化归因于气候变化。大众媒体和科学专家塑造了关于气候变化如何驱动花粉季节变化的交流。我们的研究结果揭示了政治意识形态和科学传播如何影响公众对花粉季节和气候变化的看法。我们的发现是朝着改善气候变化影响交流迈出的关键一步。
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引用次数: 0
A sulfotransferase from a gut microbe acts on diverse phenolic sulfate compounds, including acetaminophen sulfate. 来自肠道微生物的硫转移酶作用于多种酚类硫酸盐化合物,包括对乙酰氨基酚硫酸盐。
IF 3.8 Q2 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-26 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf403
Rylee Close, Schuyler Kremer, Madison Mitchem, Andrew Bellinghiere, Khemlal Nirmalkar, Chad R Borges, Rosa Krajmalnik-Brown, Dhara D Shah

Sulfonation is one of the two main phase II detoxification pathways in eukaryotes which transforms nonpolar compounds into hydrophilic metabolites. Sulfotransferases catalyze these reactions by transferring a sulfo group from a donor to an acceptor molecule. Human cytosolic sulfotransferases use only 3'-phosphoadenosine 5'-phosphosulfate (PAPS) as a donor to sulfonate a variety of chemicals. Less understood are microbial aryl-sulfate sulfotransferases (ASSTs), which catalyze sulfo transfer reactions, without utilizing PAPS as a donor. Currently, the identity of physiological sulfo donor substrates remains unknown and sulfo acceptor substrates are underexplored. With this study, we aim to understand the potential contribution of a gut microbial enzyme to sulfonation chemistry by uncovering its substrate preferences. Here, we show that a sulfotransferase (Bacteroides vulgatus ASST) from the prevalent gut microbe B. vulgatus (now Phocaeicola vulgatus) is a versatile catalyst that utilizes a wide range of phenolic molecules as substrates that are commonly encountered by the host. With this action, it modulates concentrations of donor phenolic sulfates such as acetaminophen sulfate, dopamine sulfate, p-cresol sulfate, and related compounds in vitro and displays broad acceptor flexibility by sulfonating diverse phenolic compounds, including p-coumaric acid, p-cresol, 4-ethylphenol, tyramine, among others. These findings suggest that gut microbial enzymes like ASSTs may contribute to host detoxification of phenolics, a role previously attributed solely to human sulfotransferases. However, further in vivo studies are necessary to understand the potential contributions of ASSTs to host detoxification processes.

磺化是真核生物将非极性化合物转化为亲水性代谢物的两种主要II期解毒途径之一。亚砜转移酶通过将一个亚砜基团从供体分子转移到受体分子来催化这些反应。人类胞质硫转移酶仅使用3'-磷酸腺苷5'-磷酸硫酸酯(PAPS)作为供体来磺化各种化学品。较少了解的是微生物芳基硫酸盐硫转移酶(ASSTs),它催化硫转移反应,不利用PAPS作为供体。目前,生理上的亚砜供体底物的身份仍是未知的,而亚砜受体底物的探索不足。通过这项研究,我们旨在通过揭示其底物偏好来了解肠道微生物酶对磺化化学的潜在贡献。在这里,我们展示了来自普遍存在的肠道微生物B. vulgatus(现在的Phocaeicola vulgatus)的硫转移酶(Bacteroides vulgatus)是一种多功能催化剂,它利用宿主经常遇到的广泛的酚类分子作为底物。通过这种作用,它在体外调节供体酚类硫酸盐的浓度,如对乙酰氨基酚硫酸盐、多巴胺硫酸盐、对甲酚硫酸盐和相关化合物,并通过磺化多种酚类化合物,包括对香豆酸、对甲酚、4-乙基酚、酪胺等,显示出广泛的受体灵活性。这些发现表明,像ASSTs这样的肠道微生物酶可能有助于宿主对酚类物质的解毒,这一作用以前只被认为是人类硫转移酶的作用。然而,需要进一步的体内研究来了解ASSTs对宿主解毒过程的潜在贡献。
{"title":"A sulfotransferase from a gut microbe acts on diverse phenolic sulfate compounds, including acetaminophen sulfate.","authors":"Rylee Close, Schuyler Kremer, Madison Mitchem, Andrew Bellinghiere, Khemlal Nirmalkar, Chad R Borges, Rosa Krajmalnik-Brown, Dhara D Shah","doi":"10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf403","DOIUrl":"10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf403","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Sulfonation is one of the two main phase II detoxification pathways in eukaryotes which transforms nonpolar compounds into hydrophilic metabolites. Sulfotransferases catalyze these reactions by transferring a sulfo group from a donor to an acceptor molecule. Human cytosolic sulfotransferases use only 3'-phosphoadenosine 5'-phosphosulfate (PAPS) as a donor to sulfonate a variety of chemicals. Less understood are microbial aryl-sulfate sulfotransferases (ASSTs), which catalyze sulfo transfer reactions, without utilizing PAPS as a donor. Currently, the identity of physiological sulfo donor substrates remains unknown and sulfo acceptor substrates are underexplored. With this study, we aim to understand the potential contribution of a gut microbial enzyme to sulfonation chemistry by uncovering its substrate preferences. Here, we show that a sulfotransferase (<i>Bacteroides vulgatus</i> ASST) from the prevalent gut microbe <i>B. vulgatus</i> (now <i>Phocaeicola vulgatus</i>) is a versatile catalyst that utilizes a wide range of phenolic molecules as substrates that are commonly encountered by the host. With this action, it modulates concentrations of donor phenolic sulfates such as acetaminophen sulfate, dopamine sulfate, p-cresol sulfate, and related compounds in vitro and displays broad acceptor flexibility by sulfonating diverse phenolic compounds, including p-coumaric acid, p-cresol, 4-ethylphenol, tyramine, among others. These findings suggest that gut microbial enzymes like ASSTs may contribute to host detoxification of phenolics, a role previously attributed solely to human sulfotransferases. However, further in vivo studies are necessary to understand the potential contributions of ASSTs to host detoxification processes.</p>","PeriodicalId":74468,"journal":{"name":"PNAS nexus","volume":"5 1","pages":"pgaf403"},"PeriodicalIF":3.8,"publicationDate":"2025-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12809581/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145999946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
NIPS: Network Inference with Partial State measurements using forced-delay embedding. NIPS:使用强制延迟嵌入的部分状态测量的网络推理。
IF 3.8 Q2 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-24 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf397
Bharat Singhal, István Z Kiss, Jr-Shin Li

Decoding the connectivity patterns of complex networks from time series measurements is crucial for understanding and controlling their dynamics. Although network inference algorithms have advanced significantly in identifying both pairwise and higher-order interactions, they often rely on the availability of full-state measurements, an assumption that is difficult to satisfy in practice. In this article, we address this limitation by introducing Network Inference from Partial States (NIPS), a framework for network reconstruction from partial-state observations of network units. Focusing initially on networks coupled through observable states, we model coupling inputs as external forcing and utilize forced-delay embedding theory to establish a map that describes the evolution of the node observables as a function of observable state components. Specifically, the dynamics of the observable state of a node depends only on delayed observations of that node itself, not on delayed observations of other nodes. This enables accurate network reconstruction with limited data, which is demonstrated using both simulated and experimental data obtained from a wide range of networks. We evaluate the robustness of NIPS to noisy data and hidden network nodes and subsequently extend the framework to networks coupled through unobservable states.

从时间序列测量中解码复杂网络的连接模式对于理解和控制其动态至关重要。尽管网络推理算法在识别成对和高阶相互作用方面取得了重大进展,但它们通常依赖于全状态测量的可用性,这是一个在实践中难以满足的假设。在本文中,我们通过引入部分状态网络推断(NIPS)来解决这一限制,NIPS是一个从网络单元的部分状态观测中重建网络的框架。首先关注通过可观察状态耦合的网络,我们将耦合输入建模为外部强迫,并利用强制延迟嵌入理论建立一个映射,该映射将节点可观察对象的演化描述为可观察状态组件的函数。具体来说,一个节点的可观测状态的动态只依赖于该节点本身的延迟观测,而不依赖于其他节点的延迟观测。这可以用有限的数据进行准确的网络重建,这一点可以通过从广泛的网络中获得的模拟和实验数据来证明。我们评估了NIPS对噪声数据和隐藏网络节点的鲁棒性,并随后将该框架扩展到通过不可观察状态耦合的网络。
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引用次数: 0
Genetic architecture of the tomato fruit lipidome. 番茄果实脂质体的遗传结构。
IF 3.8 Q2 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-24 eCollection Date: 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf401
Anastasiya Kuhalskaya, Xiang Li, Jeongah Lee, Itay Gonda, Julia von Steimker, Mustafa Bulut, Esra Karakas, Josef Fisher, Konrad Krämer, Leah Rosental, Micha Wijesingha Ahchige, Karolina Garbowicz, Annabella Klemmer, Anne-Kathrin Ruß, Andreas Donath, Alvaro Cuadros-Inostroza, Wout Boerjan, Denise M Tieman, Dani Zamir, Harry J Klee, Saleh Alseekh

The lipid composition of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) fruit plays a crucial role in determining fruit quality, nutritional value, and the biosynthesis of key volatile organic compounds. Despite this importance, the metabolic diversity and genetic regulation of lipid composition in tomato fruit remain poorly understood. Here, we performed a genome-wide association study and QTL mapping for fruit lipid content from 550 tomato accessions and 107 backcross inbred lines in two consecutive seasons. Over 130 lipid compounds were identified in the population, allowing for the identification of over 600 metabolic QTL. We further described and validated candidate genes associated with lipid content. Among them is a lipase-like protein (TomLLP) whose function was validated in vivo using overexpression lines in tomato and knockout mutants in Arabidopsis. We also identified functions for three enzymes: a class III lipase (Sl-LIP8), a cyclopropane-fatty-acyl-phospholipid synthase (CFAPS1), and lipoxygenase C (TomLoxC). By utilizing knockout lines for CFAPS1 and CRISPR-Cas9 loss-of-function lines for Sl-LIP8 and TomLoxC, we demonstrated the functional importance of these enzymes in fruit lipid metabolism. Our study provides a comprehensive analysis of the tomato fruit lipidome and insights into key genes that shape natural variation in lipid content, establishing a framework for exploring how lipid dynamics may influence traits such as flavor and volatile formation.

番茄果实的脂质组成在决定果实品质、营养价值和关键挥发性有机物的生物合成方面起着至关重要的作用。尽管具有这种重要性,但对番茄果实中脂质组成的代谢多样性和遗传调控仍知之甚少。在此,我们对550份番茄材料和107个回交自交系连续两个季节的果实脂质含量进行了全基因组关联研究和QTL定位。在人群中鉴定了130多种脂质化合物,从而鉴定了600多个代谢QTL。我们进一步描述和验证了与脂质含量相关的候选基因。其中有一种脂酶样蛋白(TomLLP),其功能在体内通过番茄过表达系和拟南芥敲除突变体得到验证。我们还确定了三种酶的功能:III类脂肪酶(Sl-LIP8),环丙烷-脂肪-酰基-磷脂合成酶(CFAPS1)和脂氧合酶C (TomLoxC)。通过CFAPS1敲除系和Sl-LIP8和TomLoxC的CRISPR-Cas9功能缺失系,我们证明了这些酶在水果脂质代谢中的功能重要性。我们的研究提供了对番茄果实脂质组的全面分析和对形成脂质含量自然变异的关键基因的见解,为探索脂质动力学如何影响风味和挥发性形成等性状建立了框架。
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引用次数: 0
Information about immigrants' deservingness reduces misperceptions and opposition to immigration. 关于移民值得拥有的信息减少了对移民的误解和反对。
IF 3.8 Q2 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-23 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf349
Amine Sijilmassi, Hugo Mercier, Lou Safra, Coralie Chevallier

Anti-immigration attitudes remain widespread across Western societies, raising concerns for social cohesion. This study investigates whether correcting misperceptions about immigrants' perceived deservingness-using cues such as intent to contribute and efforts to overcome socioeconomic challenges-can counter anti-immigration prejudice. In study 1 (n = 480), a factorial survey experiment showed that low-status immigrants were viewed more favorably when they exhibited deservingness traits. Studies 2a (n = 1,506) and 2b (n = 1,255), conducted as 1-week longitudinal studies during the 2024 European and French parliamentary elections, revealed that an information treatment emphasizing deservingness cues strongly reduced misperceptions about immigrants, modestly reduced opposition to immigration, and had a smaller effect for anti-immigration voting. These findings suggest that while immigrants are often perceived negatively, emphasizing perceived deservingness can mitigate prejudice, presenting a promising strategy for reducing anti-immigration bias.

反移民的态度在西方社会仍然普遍存在,引发了对社会凝聚力的担忧。这项研究调查了纠正对移民的感知价值的误解——使用诸如贡献意图和克服社会经济挑战的努力等线索——是否可以对抗反移民偏见。在研究1 (n = 480)中,一项析因调查实验表明,当低地位移民表现出应得特征时,他们会更受欢迎。研究2a (n = 1,506)和2b (n = 1,255)在2024年欧洲和法国议会选举期间进行了为期一周的纵向研究,揭示了强调值得暗示的信息处理大大减少了对移民的误解,适度减少了对移民的反对,对反移民投票的影响较小。这些发现表明,虽然移民通常被认为是负面的,但强调感知的应得性可以减轻偏见,为减少反移民偏见提供了一个有希望的策略。
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引用次数: 0
Thermal constraints on the distribution of Japanese eel (Anguilla japonica) at its northern limit: Links to land use and geology. 日本鳗鲡(Anguilla japonica)在其北部边界分布的热约束:与土地利用和地质的联系。
IF 3.8 Q2 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-23 eCollection Date: 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgaf384
Kanta Muramatsu, Mari Kuroki, Yu-Lin K Chang, Kentaro Morita, Osamu Kishida

Distributions of species can be shaped by large-scale geographic features present at broad spatial scales that control local environmental conditions. In species with complex life cycles, different local factors are expected to determine their distribution at different life stages in a sequential manner. Although the geographic distribution of fish with pelagic life stages (such as planktonic larvae transported by ocean currents) is likely determined by both pelagic stage and post-pelagic stage factors, the role of post-pelagic factors remains poorly understood. In this study, we examined the geographic and local factors that may influence the distribution of the Japanese eel (Anguilla japonica) at its northern range limit. We assessed the abundance of river-dwelling eels in 105 rivers across southern Hokkaido and analyzed statistical models that accounted for the potential recruitment of glass eels estimated through an oceanic transport simulation. Building on these models, we examined how local environmental conditions can influence eel abundance and identified the geographic features that likely regulate those local conditions. We found that Japanese eels were heterogeneously distributed at their northern limit. Our analyses suggest that Japanese eels were more abundant in rivers with watersheds characterized largely by farmland and urban areas and only minimally by volcanic geology, as these rivers tended to have warmer water temperatures during the feeding season. These findings suggest that global warming, in combination with urbanization, may facilitate the northward expansion of the Japanese eel, although in this region, the expansion may be constrained by the past volcanic activity.

物种的分布可以由存在于控制当地环境条件的广阔空间尺度上的大尺度地理特征来塑造。在具有复杂生命周期的物种中,不同的局部因素可能会顺序地决定它们在不同生命阶段的分布。尽管具有中上层生命阶段的鱼类(如由洋流运输的浮游幼体)的地理分布可能由中上层阶段和后上层阶段因素共同决定,但对后上层阶段因素的作用仍知之甚少。在这项研究中,我们研究了可能影响日本鳗鲡(Anguilla japonica)在其北部范围极限分布的地理和地方因素。我们评估了北海道南部105条河流中河栖鳗鱼的丰度,并分析了统计模型,这些模型通过海洋运输模拟估计了玻璃鳗的潜在招募。在这些模型的基础上,我们研究了当地环境条件如何影响鳗鱼的丰度,并确定了可能调节当地条件的地理特征。结果表明,日本鳗鲡在其北部边界分布不均。我们的分析表明,日本鳗鱼在流域主要以农田和城市地区为特征的河流中更为丰富,只有很少的火山地质,因为这些河流在觅食季节往往水温较高。这些发现表明,全球变暖加上城市化,可能会促进日本鳗鱼向北扩张,尽管在该地区,扩张可能受到过去火山活动的限制。
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引用次数: 0
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