Proceedings of the ... International World-Wide Web Conference. International WWW Conference最新文献

Activity tracking apps often make use of goals as one of their core motivational tools. There are two critical components to this tool: setting a goal, and subsequently achieving that goal. Despite its crucial role in how a number of prominent self-tracking apps function, there has been relatively little investigation of the goal-setting and achievement aspects of self-tracking apps. Here we explore this issue, investigating a particular goal setting and achievement process that is extensive, recorded, and crucial for both the app and its users' success: weight loss goals in MyFitnessPal. We present a large-scale study of 1.4 million users and weight loss goals, allowing for an unprecedented detailed view of how people set and achieve their goals. We find that, even for difficult long-term goals, behavior within the first 7 days predicts those who ultimately achieve their goals, that is, those who lose at least as much weight as they set out to, and those who do not. For instance, high amounts of early weight loss, which some researchers have classified as unsustainable, leads to higher goal achievement rates. We also show that early food intake, self-monitoring motivation, and attitude towards the goal are important factors. We then show that we can use our findings to predict goal achievement with an accuracy of 79% ROC AUC just 7 days after a goal is set. Finally, we discuss how our findings could inform steps to improve goal achievement in self-tracking apps.

Mobile health applications, including those that track activities such as exercise, sleep, and diet, are becoming widely used. Accurately predicting human actions in the real world is essential for targeted recommendations that could improve our health and for personalization of these applications. However, making such predictions is extremely difficult due to the complexities of human behavior, which consists of a large number of potential actions that vary over time, depend on each other, and are periodic. Previous work has not jointly modeled these dynamics and has largely focused on item consumption patterns instead of broader types of behaviors such as eating, commuting or exercising. In this work, we develop a novel statistical model, called TIPAS, for Time-varying, Interdependent, and Periodic Action Sequences. Our approach is based on personalized, multivariate temporal point processes that model time-varying action propensities through a mixture of Gaussian intensities. Our model captures short-term and long-term periodic interdependencies between actions through Hawkes process-based self-excitations. We evaluate our approach on two activity logging datasets comprising 12 million real-world actions (e.g., eating, sleep, and exercise) taken by 20 thousand users over 17 months. We demonstrate that our approach allows us to make successful predictions of future user actions and their timing. Specifically, TIPAS improves predictions of actions, and their timing, over existing methods across multiple datasets by up to 156%, and up to 37%, respectively. Performance improvements are particularly large for relatively rare and periodic actions such as walking and biking, improving over baselines by up to 256%. This demonstrates that explicit modeling of dependencies and periodicities in real-world behavior enables successful predictions of future actions, with implications for modeling human behavior, app personalization, and targeting of health interventions.

Many problems in areas as diverse as recommendation systems, social network analysis, semantic search, and distributed root cause analysis can be modeled as pattern search on labeled graphs (also called "heterogeneous information networks" or HINs). Given a large graph and a query pattern with node and edge label constraints, a fundamental challenge is to find the top-k matches according to a ranking function over edge and node weights. For users, it is difficult to select value k. We therefore propose the novel notion of an any-k ranking algorithm: for a given time budget, return as many of the top-ranked results as possible. Then, given additional time, produce the next lower-ranked results quickly as well. It can be stopped anytime, but may have to continue until all results are returned. This paper focuses on acyclic patterns over arbitrary labeled graphs. We are interested in practical algorithms that effectively exploit (1) properties of heterogeneous networks, in particular selective constraints on labels, and (2) that the users often explore only a fraction of the top-ranked results. Our solution, KARPET, carefully integrates aggressive pruning that leverages the acyclic nature of the query, and incremental guided search. It enables us to prove strong non-trivial time and space guarantees, which is generally considered very hard for this type of graph search problem. Through experimental studies we show that KARPET achieves running times in the order of milliseconds for tree patterns on large networks with millions of nodes and edges.

Mobile health applications that track activities, such as exercise, sleep, and diet, are becoming widely used. While these activity tracking applications have the potential to improve our health, user engagement and retention are critical factors for their success. However, long-term user engagement patterns in real-world activity tracking applications are not yet well understood. Here we study user engagement patterns within a mobile physical activity tracking application consisting of 115 million logged activities taken by over a million users over 31 months. Specifically, we show that over 75% of users return and re-engage with the application after prolonged periods of inactivity, no matter the duration of the inactivity. We find a surprising result that the re-engagement usage patterns resemble those of the start of the initial engagement period, rather than being a simple continuation of the end of the initial engagement period. This evidence points to a conceptual model of multiple lives of user engagement, extending the prevalent single life view of user activity. We demonstrate that these multiple lives occur because the users have a variety of different primary intents or goals for using the app. These primary intents are associated with how long each life lasts and how likely the user is to re-engage for a new life. We find evidence for users being more likely to stop using the app once they achieved their primary intent or goal (e.g., weight loss). However, these users might return once their original intent resurfaces (e.g., wanting to lose newly gained weight). We discuss implications of the multiple life paradigm and propose a novel prediction task of predicting the number of lives of a user. Based on insights developed in this work, including a marker of improved primary intent performance, our prediction models achieve 71% ROC AUC. Overall, our research has implications for modeling user re-engagement in health activity tracking applications and has consequences for how notifications, recommendations as well as gamification can be used to increase engagement.

Cycles are fundamental to human health and behavior. Examples include mood cycles, circadian rhythms, and the menstrual cycle. However, modeling cycles in time series data is challenging because in most cases the cycles are not labeled or directly observed and need to be inferred from multidimensional measurements taken over time. Here, we present Cyclic Hidden Markov Models (CyH-MMs) for detecting and modeling cycles in a collection of multidimensional heterogeneous time series data. In contrast to previous cycle modeling methods, CyHMMs deal with a number of challenges encountered in modeling real-world cycles: they can model multivariate data with both discrete and continuous dimensions; they explicitly model and are robust to missing data; and they can share information across individuals to accommodate variation both within and between individual time series. Experiments on synthetic and real-world health-tracking data demonstrate that CyHMMs infer cycle lengths more accurately than existing methods, with 58% lower error on simulated data and 63% lower error on real-world data compared to the best-performing baseline. CyHMMs can also perform functions which baselines cannot: they can model the progression of individual features/symptoms over the course of the cycle, identify the most variable features, and cluster individual time series into groups with distinct characteristics. Applying CyHMMs to two real-world health-tracking datasets-of human menstrual cycle symptoms and physical activity tracking data-yields important insights including which symptoms to expect at each point during the cycle. We also find that people fall into several groups with distinct cycle patterns, and that these groups differ along dimensions not provided to the model. For example, by modeling missing data in the menstrual cycles dataset, we are able to discover a medically relevant group of birth control users even though information on birth control is not given to the model.

Integrated approaches for pharmacology are required for the mechanism-based predictions of adverse drug reactions that manifest due to concomitant intake of multiple drugs. These approaches require the integration and analysis of biomedical data and knowledge from multiple, heterogeneous sources with varying schemas, entity notations, and formats. To tackle these integrative challenges, the Semantic Web community has published and linked several datasets in the Life Sciences Linked Open Data (LSLOD) cloud using established W3C standards. We present the PhLeGrA platform for Linked Graph Analytics in Pharmacology in this paper. Through query federation, we integrate four sources from the LSLOD cloud and extract a drug-reaction network, composed of distinct entities. We represent this graph as a hidden conditional random field (HCRF), a discriminative latent variable model that is used for structured output predictions. We calculate the underlying probability distributions in the drug-reaction HCRF using the datasets from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Adverse Event Reporting System. We predict the occurrence of 146 adverse reactions due to multiple drug intake with an AUROC statistic greater than 0.75. The PhLeGrA platform can be extended to incorporate other sources published using Semantic Web technologies, as well as to discover other types of pharmacological associations.

Gamification represents an effective way to incentivize user behavior across a number of computing applications. However, despite the fact that physical activity is essential for a healthy lifestyle, surprisingly little is known about how gamification and in particular competitions shape human physical activity. Here we study how competitions affect physical activity. We focus on walking challenges in a mobile activity tracking application where multiple users compete over who takes the most steps over a predefined number of days. We synthesize our findings in a series of game and app design implications. In particular, we analyze nearly 2,500 physical activity competitions over a period of one year capturing more than 800,000 person days of activity tracking. We observe that during walking competitions, the average user increases physical activity by 23%. Furthermore, there are large increases in activity for both men and women across all ages, and weight status, and even for users that were previously fairly inactive. We also find that the composition of participants greatly affects the dynamics of the game. In particular, if highly unequal participants get matched to each other, then competition suffers and the overall effect on the physical activity drops significantly. Furthermore, competitions with an equal mix of both men and women are more effective in increasing the level of activities. We leverage these insights to develop a statistical model to predict whether or not a competition will be particularly engaging with significant accuracy. Our models can serve as a guideline to help design more engaging competitions that lead to most beneficial behavioral changes.

A large number of patients discuss treatments in online health communities (OHCs). One research question of interest to health researchers is whether treatments being discussed in OHCs are eventually used by community members in their real lives. In this paper, we rely on machine learning methods to automatically identify attributions of mentions of treatments from an online autism community. The context of our work is online autism communities, where parents exchange support for the care of their children with autism spectrum disorder. Our methods are able to distinguish discussions of treatments that are associated with patients, caregivers, and others, as well as identify whether a treatment is actually taken. We investigate treatments that are not just discussed but also used by patients according to two types of content analysis, cross-sectional and longitudinal. The treatments identified through our content analysis help create a catalogue of real-world treatments. This study results lay the foundation for future research to compare real-world drug usage with established clinical guidelines.

Patients discuss complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) in online health communities. Sometimes, patients' conflicting opinions toward CAM-related issues trigger debates in the community. The objectives of this paper are to identify such debates, identify controversial CAM therapies in a popular online breast cancer community, as well as patients' stances towards them. To scale our analysis, we trained a set of classifiers. We first constructed a supervised classifier based on a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM) stacked over a convolutional neural network (CNN) to detect automatically CAM-related debates from a popular breast cancer forum. Members' stances in these debates were also identified by a CNN-based classifier. Finally, posts automatically flagged as debates by the classifier were analyzed to explore which specific CAM therapies trigger debates more often than others. Our methods are able to detect CAM debates with F score of 77%, and identify stances with F score of 70%. The debate classifier identified about 1/6 of all CAM-related posts as debate. About 60% of CAM-related debate posts represent the supportive stance toward CAM usage. Qualitative analysis shows that some specific therapies, such as Gerson therapy and usage of laetrile, trigger debates frequently among members of the breast cancer community. This study demonstrates that neural networks can effectively locate debates on usage and effectiveness of controversial CAM therapies, and can help make sense of patients' opinions on such issues under dispute. As to CAM for breast cancer, perceptions of their effectiveness vary among patients. Many of the specific therapies trigger debates frequently and are worth more exploration in future work.

Many text mining approaches adopt bag-of-words or n-grams models to represent documents. Looking beyond just the words, i.e., the explicit surface forms, in a document can improve a computer's understanding of text. Being aware of this, researchers have proposed concept-based models that rely on a human-curated knowledge base to incorporate other related concepts in the document representation. But these methods are not desirable when applied to vertical domains (e.g., literature, enterprise, etc.) due to low coverage of in-domain concepts in the general knowledge base and interference from out-of-domain concepts. In this paper, we propose a data-driven model named Latent Keyphrase Inference (LAKI) that represents documents with a vector of closely related domain keyphrases instead of single words or existing concepts in the knowledge base. We show that given a corpus of in-domain documents, topical content units can be learned for each domain keyphrase, which enables a computer to do smart inference to discover latent document keyphrases, going beyond just explicit mentions. Compared with the state-of-art document representation approaches, LAKI fills the gap between bag-of-words and concept-based models by using domain keyphrases as the basic representation unit. It removes dependency on a knowledge base while providing, with keyphrases, readily interpretable representations. When evaluated against 8 other methods on two text mining tasks over two corpora, LAKI outperformed all.