Dynamical spectral estimation is a well-established numerical approach for estimating eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the Markov transition operator from trajectory data. Although the approach has been widely applied in biomolecular simulations, its error properties remain poorly understood. Here we analyze the error of a dynamical spectral estimation method called "the variational approach to conformational dynamics" (VAC). We bound the approximation error and estimation error for VAC estimates. Our analysis establishes VAC's convergence properties and suggests new strategies for tuning VAC to improve accuracy.
A common assumption in multiple scientific applications is that the distribution of observed data can be modeled by a latent tree graphical model. An important example is phylogenetics, where the tree models the evolutionary lineages of a set of observed organisms. Given a set of independent realizations of the random variables at the leaves of the tree, a key challenge is to infer the underlying tree topology. In this work we develop Spectral Neighbor Joining (SNJ), a novel method to recover the structure of latent tree graphical models. Given a matrix that contains a measure of similarity between all pairs of observed variables, SNJ computes a spectral measure of cohesion between groups of observed variables. We prove that SNJ is consistent, and derive a sufficient condition for correct tree recovery from an estimated similarity matrix. Combining this condition with a concentration of measure result on the similarity matrix, we bound the number of samples required to recover the tree with high probability. We illustrate via extensive simulations that in comparison to several other reconstruction methods, SNJ requires fewer samples to accurately recover trees with a large number of leaves or long edges.
A fundamental step in many data-analysis techniques is the construction of an affinity matrix describing similarities between data points. When the data points reside in Euclidean space, a widespread approach is to from an affinity matrix by the Gaussian kernel with pairwise distances, and to follow with a certain normalization (e.g. the row-stochastic normalization or its symmetric variant). We demonstrate that the doubly-stochastic normalization of the Gaussian kernel with zero main diagonal (i.e., no self loops) is robust to heteroskedastic noise. That is, the doubly-stochastic normalization is advantageous in that it automatically accounts for observations with different noise variances. Specifically, we prove that in a suitable high-dimensional setting where heteroskedastic noise does not concentrate too much in any particular direction in space, the resulting (doubly-stochastic) noisy affinity matrix converges to its clean counterpart with rate m -1/2, where m is the ambient dimension. We demonstrate this result numerically, and show that in contrast, the popular row-stochastic and symmetric normalizations behave unfavorably under heteroskedastic noise. Furthermore, we provide examples of simulated and experimental single-cell RNA sequence data with intrinsic heteroskedasticity, where the advantage of the doubly-stochastic normalization for exploratory analysis is evident.
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