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Short-Term Power Demand Prediction for Energy Management of an Electric Vehicle Based on Batteries and Ultracapacitors 基于电池和超级电容器的电动汽车能量管理短期电力需求预测
Pub Date : 2022-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3899827
E. M. Asensio, G. Magallán, L. Pérez, C. D. de Angelo
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引用次数: 7
Betting Against Oil: The Implications of Divesting from Fossil Fuel Stocks 做空石油:从化石燃料库存中剥离的含义
Pub Date : 2022-01-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3976267
David Blitz
We examine how the announcement of several large institutional investors to divest from fossil fuel stocks affects the systematic risk exposures of an equity portfolio. We find that fossil fuel stocks exhibit a highly significant positive exposure toward changes in the oil price. Consistent with this result, we observe that fossil fuel stocks outperform strongly during oil bull markets and underperform strongly during oil bear markets. For bull and bear scenarios concerning the energy sector itself, we find even more pronounced results. Within the equity market, the materials sector appears to offer the best hedge for fossil fuel stocks, but this sector also tends to have a high carbon footprint and environmental issues. Oil futures could be a direct hedge, but may be even less acceptable to investors who do not want fossil fuel exposure. Altogether, we conclude that excluding fossil fuel stocks comes down to an active bet against the oil price, which makes a portfolio vulnerable to significant underperformance in the short and medium term.
我们研究了几家大型机构投资者宣布剥离化石燃料股票如何影响股票投资组合的系统风险敞口。我们发现,化石燃料库存对油价变化表现出非常显著的积极影响。与这一结果一致,我们观察到化石燃料股在石油牛市期间表现强劲,在石油熊市期间表现不佳。对于能源行业本身的牛市和熊市,我们发现了更明显的结果。在股票市场中,材料行业似乎为化石燃料股票提供了最好的对冲,但该行业也往往存在高碳足迹和环境问题。石油期货可能是一种直接对冲,但对于不想接触化石燃料的投资者来说,可能更不容易接受。总之,我们得出的结论是,排除化石燃料股票可以归结为对油价的积极押注,这使得投资组合在中短期内容易表现不佳。
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引用次数: 1
Housing, Risk Aversion and Asset Prices 住房、风险厌恶和资产价格
Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2909043
Abraham Lioui, Messaoud Chibane, Poncet Patrice
By extending Cumulant Generating Function-based pricing formulas to a two-good economy (non-housing and housing), we obtain closed-form solutions for asset prices. The presence of housing impacts risk aversion and induces time variation that is priced in the model. Since housing also brings about composition risk, we show that it introduces endogenously a long-run risk component into the consumption bundle dynamics. Estimating the model over the period 1959 -– 2020, we show that rare booms and busts events in housing expenditures is determinant in obtaining moderate housing risk premium and housing excess return volatility, both in line with empirical results. The real interest rate and both the level and volatility of the equity risk premium also fit the data owing to the presence of the COVID period into our sample period.
通过将基于累积生成函数的定价公式扩展到两好经济(非住房和住房),我们获得了资产价格的封闭形式解。住房的存在影响了风险规避,并诱导了模型中定价的时间变化。由于住房也会带来组合风险,我们表明它在消费束动态中引入了内生的长期风险成分。对1959 - 2020年期间的模型进行估计,我们发现住房支出的罕见繁荣和萧条事件是获得适度住房风险溢价和住房超额回报波动的决定因素,两者都符合实证结果。由于COVID期间的存在,实际利率以及股票风险溢价的水平和波动性也适合我们的样本期间的数据。
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引用次数: 0
Estimating Repugnance Toward Price Gouging With Incentivized Consumer Reports 用激励消费者报告估计对价格欺诈的反感
Pub Date : 2021-12-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3750332
Justin E. Holz, Rafael J Jimenez Duran, Eduardo Laguna-Müggenburg
Thirty-four states prohibit price increases during emergencies and many individuals take costly actions to report violators. We use an experiment to measure the willingness to pay to report sellers who increase prices of personal protective equipment. Over 75% of subjects pay to report even if others are willing to purchase at those prices. The willingness to pay is polarized and increases with price. We argue that reports contain information about repugnance—a desire to prevent third-party transactions at increased prices. The mechanism driving reports varies by good: we find a distaste for profits for hand sanitizers but not for face masks.
34个州禁止在紧急情况下涨价,许多人采取代价高昂的行动举报违规者。我们使用一个实验来衡量举报卖家提高个人防护装备价格的支付意愿。超过75%的实验对象会支付报告费用,即使其他人愿意以同样的价格购买。支付意愿是两极化的,并随着价格的上涨而增加。我们认为,报告包含了有关厌恶的信息——一种防止第三方以更高价格进行交易的愿望。驱动报告的机制因好而异:我们发现人们厌恶洗手液的利润,而不是口罩。
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引用次数: 1
Opening the black box: Does target setting lead employees to engage in unethical behavior for the organization? 打开黑匣子:设定目标是否会导致员工为组织做出不道德的行为?
Pub Date : 2021-11-16 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3957913
Kazunori Fukushima, A. Yamada
Companies often attempt to manage their earnings, which is generally considered as unethical behavior that negatively affects earnings quality. In recent years, the incidence of real activity-based manipulation (RM), a form of earnings management, has increased. Unlike accrual-based manipulation, RM requires cooperation between top management and frontline employees. However, previous research has not clarified how top managers lead subordinates to engage in RM. The concept of unethical pro-organizational behavior (UPB) may be useful in clarifying this point. This is because RM can be considered as a form of UPB for employees. Therefore, this study analyzes the relationship between budget target setting, which is an important management element in almost all companies, and employees’ willingness to engage in UPB (WUPB). For this analysis, we use data from a web-based survey of 450 employees in the marketing and sales departments of Japanese companies. Our multivariate regression analysis shows that the relationship between the difficulty of budget targets and WUPB is nonlinear and that WUPB is greatest for so-called stretch targets, which are generally somewhat difficult to achieve. Moreover, WUPB is greater when budget targets are more flexible. These results suggest that earnings management may not only be a consequence of direct actions aimed at it, but also a result of the process of setting and achieving targets. This study may provide insights to bridge the gap between research and practice on earnings management.
公司经常试图管理自己的收益,这通常被认为是不道德的行为,会对收益质量产生负面影响。近年来,基于实际活动的操纵(RM)这一盈余管理形式的发生率有所上升。与基于权责发生制的操纵不同,RM需要高层管理人员和一线员工之间的合作。然而,先前的研究并没有阐明高层管理者是如何带领下属参与RM的。不道德亲组织行为(UPB)的概念可能有助于澄清这一点。这是因为RM可以被视为员工UPB的一种形式。因此,本研究分析了预算目标设定与员工参与UPB(WUPB)意愿之间的关系,预算目标设定是几乎所有公司的重要管理要素。在这项分析中,我们使用了一项针对日本公司营销和销售部门450名员工的网络调查数据。我们的多元回归分析表明,预算目标的难度和WUPB之间的关系是非线性的,并且WUPB对于所谓的拉伸目标是最大的,这通常有点难以实现。此外,当预算目标更灵活时,WUPB更大。这些结果表明,盈余管理可能不仅是针对盈余管理的直接行动的结果,也是设定和实现目标过程的结果。这项研究可能为弥补盈余管理研究与实践之间的差距提供见解。
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引用次数: 0
Regionalism and Marine Environmental Protection: the Case of Offshore Energy Production 区域主义与海洋环境保护:以海上能源生产为例
Pub Date : 2021-11-15 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3770726
N. Giannopoulos
At the global level, the rules which directly or coincidentally regulate offshore energy production activities stand out as being mostly sectoral and recommendatory. Global agreements do not offer concrete environmental standards applicable to offshore energy production activities, but they create normatively modest obligations of conduct, which allow States wide discretion in their implementation. By contrast, most of the specific environmental rules and standards concerning energy activities at sea have been developed at the regional level. The role of regional agreements appears to be embraced by UNCLOS, which accommodates and, in certain instances, encourages the development of regional agreements for the protection of the marine environment. The multitude of references to regional rules and forms of cooperation in UNCLOS is indicative of the significance of regionalism to address certain sources of pollution. However, not all energy-producing marine regions are subject to normatively specific rules and standards to regulate these activities. Theoretically, the absence of such standards might have significant environmental repercussions. Given the interconnectedness of seas and oceans, the success of a regional agreement in achieving its environmental objectives depends considerably on the consistent efforts in the other areas of the world to equally protect and preserve the marine environment. Against that background, it is crucial to examine not only the relevance of regional agreements for the geographical areas they were developed to protect but also whether the regional rules and standards can offer solutions, which may be applicable in other marine regions. In particular, it is important to assess the legal relevance of these region-specific rules and standards for other marine areas, for which there are no specific rules on the environmental regulation of offshore energy production activities. The aim of this paper is two-fold as it purports to examine the role of regional agreements for the regulation of offshore energy production activities both within and beyond their geographical scope of application. On that account, the contribution first examines the role of regional agreements in identifying, adapting and updating the standard of diligence that States must exercise in the respective marine areas. In that respect, it briefly discusses the relevant normative and institutional developments in four selected regions, namely the Mediterranean Sea, the Baltic Sea, the North-East Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. Drawing on these developments, it extrapolates the significant contribution of the regional agreements in developing future-proof and inclusive regulation of offshore energy production activities. In addition, the paper posits that insofar as these regional agreements could inform the interpretation of the duty to protect the marine environment in the context of offshore energy production under UNCLOS, they could also shape the
在全球一级,直接或巧合地管理近海能源生产活动的规则主要是部门性和建议性的。全球协定没有提出适用于近海能源生产活动的具体环境标准,但它们规定了规范上适度的行为义务,使各国在执行方面有广泛的自由裁量权。相比之下,大多数关于海上能源活动的具体环境规则和标准都是在区域一级制定的。《联合国海洋法公约》似乎接受了区域协定的作用,它容纳并在某些情况下鼓励制定保护海洋环境的区域协定。《联合国海洋法公约》中大量提及区域规则和合作形式,表明了区域主义对解决某些污染源的重要性。然而,并非所有产能海洋区域都有规范的具体规则和标准来管理这些活动。从理论上讲,缺乏此类标准可能会对环境产生重大影响。鉴于海洋的相互联系,一项区域协定在实现其环境目标方面的成功在很大程度上取决于世界其他地区同样保护和养护海洋环境的持续努力。在这种背景下,至关重要的是不仅要审查区域协定对其所保护的地理区域的相关性,而且要审查区域规则和标准是否能够提供可能适用于其他海洋区域的解决办法。特别重要的是评估这些区域特定规则和标准对其他海洋地区的法律相关性,因为这些地区没有关于近海能源生产活动的环境管制的具体规则。本文的目的是双重的,因为它旨在审查区域协定在其地理适用范围内外对海上能源生产活动进行监管的作用。因此,报告首先审查了区域协定在确定、调整和更新各国必须在各自海洋区域内实行的勤勉标准方面的作用。在这方面,它简要讨论了四个选定区域,即地中海、波罗的海、东北大西洋和北冰洋的有关规范和体制发展情况。根据这些发展,它推断了区域协议在制定海上能源生产活动的未来和包容性监管方面的重大贡献。此外,该论文认为,只要这些区域协议可以为《联合国海洋法公约》规定的海上能源生产背景下保护海洋环境的义务提供解释,它们也可以在全球层面上形成所需的保护标准。因此,它讨论了区域规则和标准是否以及在何种条件下为《公约》规定的海洋环境保护义务的解释和实施提供了信息和丰富。
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引用次数: 1
Circadian entry of glucose into the arcuate nucleus determines the rhythm in blood glycemia 葡萄糖进入弓形核的昼夜节律决定了血糖的节律
Pub Date : 2021-11-05 DOI: 10.17632/M4TJFJJD83.1
Betty Rodríguez-Cortés, G. Hurtado-Alvarado, R. C. Martínez, Luis León-Mercado, M. Prager-Khoutorsky, R. Buijs
Circulating glucose is maintained within very narrow boundaries with less than 5% variation at a given time of the day. However, over the circadian cycle, glycemia changes with almost 50% difference. How the suprachiasmatic nucleus, the biological clock, maintains these day-night variations with such small variations remains obscure. We show that via vasopressin release at the beginning of the sleep phase, the suprachiasmatic nucleus increases the glucose transporter GLUT1 in tanycytes. Hereby GLUT1 promotes glucose entrance into the arcuate nucleus, adjusting circulating glucose to its lowest level. Conversely, blocking vasopressin activity or the GLUT1 transporter at the daily trough of glycemia, increases circulating glucose to levels usually seen at the peak of the rhythm. Thus, biological clock-controlled mechanisms promoting glucose entry into the arcuate nucleus before sleep sets the circadian low-glucose levels.Fasting promotes an increase in arcuate GLUT1 and glucose, followed by lowering circulating glucose levels, supporting the essential role of this mechanism for controlling circulating glucose levels.
循环葡萄糖维持在非常窄的范围内,在一天中的给定时间变化小于5%。然而,在昼夜周期中,血糖变化几乎有50%的差异。作为生物钟的视交叉上核是如何以如此微小的变化维持这些昼夜变化的,目前尚不清楚。我们发现,通过睡眠阶段开始时的抗利尿激素释放,视交叉上核增加了伸长细胞中的葡萄糖转运蛋白GLUT1。因此,GLUT1促进葡萄糖进入弓形核,将循环葡萄糖调节到最低水平。相反,在每日血糖低谷时阻断抗利尿激素活性或GLUT1转运蛋白,可使循环葡萄糖增加到通常在节律高峰时所见的水平。因此,生物钟控制的机制促进葡萄糖在睡眠前进入弓状核,设定了昼夜低血糖水平。禁食促进弓形形GLUT1和葡萄糖的增加,随后降低循环葡萄糖水平,支持这种机制在控制循环葡萄糖水平方面的重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
Macro Factor Investing with Style 有风格的宏观因素投资
Pub Date : 2021-11-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3930295
Alexander Swade, Harald Lohre, M. Shackleton, Sandra Nolte, Scott Hixon, Jay H Raol
Investors face similar macroeconomic risks and opportunities regardless of their individual investment preferences. To best navigate growth and inflation concerns, the authors propose building macro factor–mimicking portfolios diversified across asset classes and style factors. They focus on the macro factors growth, inflation, and defensive. Their approach allows for shaping the macroeconomic risk exposure of a given portfolio by applying systematic macro factor completion to effectively address specific economic outcomes.
无论投资者的个人投资偏好如何,他们都面临着类似的宏观经济风险和机遇。为了更好地应对增长和通胀问题,作者建议构建宏观因素——模仿资产类别和风格因素多样化的投资组合。他们关注的是宏观因素——增长、通货膨胀和防御。他们的方法允许通过应用系统的宏观因素完成来有效地解决特定的经济结果,从而形成特定投资组合的宏观经济风险敞口。
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引用次数: 3
Interest Rates, Cash and Short-Term Investments 利率、现金和短期投资
Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3052667
Bektemir Ysmailov
Abstract This paper addresses the recent mixed evidence on the relationship between interest rates and corporate liquidity. I find that high (low) interest rates are associated with high (low) short-term investments and low (high) cash due to the opportunity cost of holding the latter. Further, I show that interest rates are negatively related to total liquid assets, i.e., the sum of cash and short-term investments. These patterns suggest a two-level demand for liquidity. At the top level, there is demand for overall liquidity and an increase in interest rates increases its price resulting in a negative effect. At the bottom level, once the firm has decided its overall level of liquidity, it chooses what fraction to hold in cash versus short-term investments. An increase in interest rates increases the price of cash relative to short-term investments resulting in a decrease in the former and an increase in the latter.
摘要本文论述了最近关于利率与企业流动性之间关系的混合证据。我发现,由于持有后者的机会成本,高(低)利率与低(低)短期投资和低(高)现金有关。此外,我发现利率与流动资产总额(即现金和短期投资的总和)呈负相关。这些模式表明对流动性的需求是两级的。在顶层,对整体流动性有需求,利率的提高会增加其价格,从而产生负面影响。在底层,一旦公司决定了其整体流动性水平,它就会选择持有现金与短期投资的比例。相对于短期投资,利率的提高会提高现金价格,导致前者下降,后者上升。
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引用次数: 9
FinEAS: Financial Embedding Analysis of Sentiment FinEAS:情绪的金融嵌入分析
Pub Date : 2021-10-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4028072
Asier Gutiérrez-Fandiño, M. N. Alonso, Petter N. Kolm, Jordi Armengol-Estap'e
In this article, the authors introduce a new language representation model for sentiment analysis of financial text called financial embedding analysis of sentiment (FinEAS). The new approach is based on transformer language models that are explicitly developed for sentence-level analysis. By building upon Sentence-BERT, a sentence-level extension of vanilla BERT, the authors argue that the new approach produces sentence embeddings of higher quality that significantly improve sentence/document-level tasks such as financial sentiment analysis. Using a large-scale financial news dataset from RavenPack, they demonstrate that for financial sentiment analysis the new model outperforms several state-of-the-art models such as BERT, a bidirectional LSTM, and FinBERT, a financial-domain-specific BERT. The authors make the model code publicly available.
本文介绍了一种新的金融文本情感分析的语言表示模型——金融嵌入情感分析(FinEAS)。这种新方法基于为句子级分析而明确开发的转换语言模型。作者认为,通过建立在sentence- BERT (vanilla BERT的句子级扩展)的基础上,新方法产生了更高质量的句子嵌入,显著改善了句子/文档级任务,如金融情绪分析。使用RavenPack的大规模金融新闻数据集,他们证明,对于金融情绪分析,新模型优于几个最先进的模型,如BERT,一个双向LSTM,和FinBERT,一个金融领域特定的BERT。作者公开了模型代码。
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引用次数: 4
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