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The urbanization of conflict? Patterns of armed conflict and protest in Africa 冲突的城市化?非洲武装冲突和抗议的模式
IF 2.8 1区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1093/afraf/adae025
Nick Dorward
Is the geography of armed conflict in Africa becoming more urban? To answer this question, I link georeferenced data on the timing and location of armed conflict and protest events to continent-wide geospatial data on human settlement patterns. Comparing rates of conflict and contention in rural versus urban areas over time, I argue that, contrary to conventional wisdom, claims surrounding the ‘urbanization of conflict’ in Africa are premature. I find that the urbanization of conflict hypothesis only holds in North Africa, where armed conflict and protest are both increasingly urban phenomenon. In contrast, while the frequency of urban protest in sub-Saharan Africa has also increased substantially, conventional armed conflicts in rural areas have also risen over the same period. My study provides a quantitative summary of key patterns and trends in protest and conflict in Africa contributing to ongoing debates surrounding the frequency and character of violent and non-violent political contests on the continent.
非洲武装冲突的地理格局是否正变得更加城市化?为了回答这个问题,我将武装冲突和抗议事件发生的时间和地点的地理参照数据与整个非洲大陆人类居住模式的地理空间数据联系起来。通过比较不同时期农村和城市地区冲突和争论的发生率,我认为,与传统观点相反,围绕非洲 "冲突城市化 "的说法为时尚早。我发现,冲突城市化的假说只在北非成立,在那里,武装冲突和抗议都日益成为城市现象。相反,虽然撒哈拉以南非洲城市抗议活动的频率也大幅增加,但同期农村地区的常规武装冲突也在增加。我的研究对非洲抗议和冲突的主要模式和趋势进行了量化总结,有助于围绕非洲大陆暴力和非暴力政治竞争的频率和特点展开持续辩论。
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引用次数: 0
Itinerary of a Christian Ex-Boko Haram bomb maker in Cameroon 喀麦隆一名前 "博科圣地 "炸弹制造者的行程安排
IF 2.8 1区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1093/afraf/adae021
Raoul Sumo Tayo
This paper is a biography of Paul, a Christian who joined Boko Haram and became one of its prominent bomb makers. After coming out of the underground, he became an army auxiliary in Kolofata and its environs, in the far north of Cameroon. Paul’s autobiographical narratives were cross-checked with other sources, including interviews with former insurgents and hostages, and officials of the Cameroonian army and the Multinational Joint Task Force. Paul’s narrative offers insight to understand why an individual would join, make a career in, and leave a terrorist group. His life story highlights the issue of human rights in the context of counterinsurgency and the importance of psychological operations in the fight against Boko Haram.
本文是保罗的传记,他是一名基督徒,曾加入博科圣地组织,并成为该组织著名的炸弹制造者之一。从地下组织出来后,他成为喀麦隆最北部科洛法塔及其周边地区的一名军队辅助人员。保罗的自传与其他资料进行了核对,包括对前叛乱分子和人质以及喀麦隆军队和多国联合特遣部队官员的采访。保罗的叙述使我们能够深入了解一个人为什么会加入恐怖组织、在恐怖组织中从事职业活动以及离开恐怖组织。他的生平故事凸显了反叛乱行动中的人权问题,以及心理战在打击博科圣地中的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
The production of climate security futures in the West African Sahel 西非萨赫勒地区气候安全未来的产生
IF 2.8 1区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1093/afraf/adae020
Bruno Charbonneau
Much has been written and said about the consequences of climate change on security in the West African Sahel. Sceptics argue that claims about the links between global warming and conflict dynamics rest on limited evidence and questionable assumptions. Others work on the institutionalization and operationalization of climate security. This implementation seems inevitable, if slow, difficult, and at times vague, as there is simply no consensus on what climate security implies in practice and what it is meant to achieve. What is climate security, and whose climate security are we talking about? This article analyses climate security as a structure of knowledge and a set of epistemic relationships that inform practices and relationships. It draws on participant observations of a Dakar-based research group that travelled to Bamako, Ouagadougou, and Niamey. At the intersection of research, policy, and programme implementation, this case study provides a unique look into the emergence of climate security relations and practices. The findings point to the rising structural force of climate security and how it can overcome both research uncertainties and sensitive diplomatic relations. The article shows that there is more to climate security than the focus on the conflict-climate nexus lets on.
关于气候变化对西非萨赫勒地区安全的影响,已经有很多文章和说法。怀疑论者认为,关于全球变暖与冲突动态之间联系的说法所依据的证据有限,假设也有问题。其他人则致力于气候安全的制度化和可操作性。这种实施似乎是不可避免的,尽管进展缓慢、困难重重,有时还很模糊,因为人们对气候安全在实践中的含义以及它要实现的目标根本没有达成共识。什么是气候安全,我们在谈论谁的气候安全?本文将气候安全分析为一种知识结构和一系列为实践和关系提供信息的认识论关系。文章借鉴了达喀尔研究小组在巴马科、瓦加杜古和尼亚美的参与观察。在研究、政策和计划实施的交叉点上,本案例研究对气候安全关系和实践的出现提供了独特的视角。研究结果表明气候安全的结构性力量正在上升,以及它如何克服研究的不确定性和敏感的外交关系。文章表明,气候安全的内涵远不止人们对冲突与气候关系的关注。
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引用次数: 0
Policing and Citizen Trust in Kenya: How Community Policing Shapes Local Trust-Building and Collaboration 肯尼亚的警务与公民信任:社区警务如何影响地方信任的建立与合作
IF 2.8 1区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-09-09 DOI: 10.1093/afraf/adae018
Patrick Mutahi, Kristine Höglund, Emma Elfversson
In contexts of high insecurity and mistrust in the police, how and why do local residents still choose to collaborate with the police, and what is the role of community policing in such considerations? Research on policing in Africa has emphasized the structural and macropolitical barriers to effective police reform, including institutionalized cultures of impunity and corruption. Less attention, however, has been paid to the contextual and relational dynamics that shape police-community collaboration. We argue that a relational perspective, which centres local residents’ interactions with police and community policing structures, provides novel insights into the challenges of policing reforms. This perspective also demonstrates how contingent and incremental trust can be built in very challenging circumstances. We study these dynamics in Karagita and Kaptembwo, two low-income urban settlements in Nakuru County, Kenya, that have experienced violent crime and repeated electoral violence. Despite considerable challenges of crime, police misconduct, and political interference in these settlements, our findings point to how positive everyday interaction and community policing structures can contribute to incremental improvements in police-community relationships. In contrast to existing work on African policing that primarily highlights the challenges of police reform, this study offers insights into when reform has the potential to be effective.
在高度不安全和对警察不信任的情况下,当地居民如何以及为什么仍然选择与警察合作,社区警务在这种考虑中的作用是什么?关于非洲警务的研究强调了有效警务改革的结构性和宏观政治障碍,包括制度化的有罪不罚和腐败文化。然而,人们较少关注形成警民合作的环境和关系动态。我们认为,以当地居民与警察和社区警务结构的互动为中心的关系视角为警务改革所面临的挑战提供了新的见解。这一视角还展示了如何在极具挑战性的环境中建立或有和渐进的信任。我们在肯尼亚纳库鲁县的 Karagita 和 Kaptembwo 两个低收入城市定居点研究了这些动态,这两个定居点经历了暴力犯罪和多次选举暴力。尽管这些居住区面临着犯罪、警察渎职和政治干预等巨大挑战,但我们的研究结果表明,积极的日常互动和社区警务结构可以促进警民关系的逐步改善。与主要强调警察改革挑战的现有非洲警务工作不同,本研究深入探讨了改革何时有可能取得成效。
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引用次数: 0
Stigmatized Professions and Ambiguous Subjects: Methodological Reflections from Sanitation Workers and Opioid Consumption in Sierra Leone 被污名化的职业和模糊的主体:来自塞拉利昂环卫工人和阿片类药物消费的方法论思考
IF 2.8 1区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-08-10 DOI: 10.1093/afraf/adae017
Ibrahim Bakarr Bangura, Nelly Leblond, Julian Hugo Walker
This paper explores ethical dilemmas in relation to practices of alcohol and drug consumption in the workplace by manual pit emptiers in Freetown, Sierra Leone. Based on observations and interviews with workers, we come to understand the consumption of painkillers and gin as a mechanism to alleviate stigma, rather than an issue of addiction. Indeed, the consumption of psychoactive substances before manual pit emptying appears as a performance to create a symbolic distance between the worker entering half-naked in a tank filled with faecal sludge and the social being, who would never do so in a ‘normal state of mind’. This analysis calls both for a deconstruction of the policies and rules that shape the sanitation sector as shameful and ‘inhuman’ and for proposals to ameliorate those conditions. Furthermore, we explore our positions as researchers on why revealing such practices can make sense in action-oriented research but also must be thought through ethically. Beyond the guidance of institutional ethics boards, the question of short- and long-term engagements with research subjects is central in shaping what ought or ought not to be investigated. We thus contribute to the discussions on how to support better science and practices with and for already stigmatized populations.
本文探讨了塞拉利昂弗里敦人工掏粪工在工作场所饮酒和吸毒的道德困境。通过观察和与工人的访谈,我们认识到消费止痛药和杜松子酒是一种减轻耻辱感的机制,而不是上瘾的问题。事实上,在人工掏坑前服用精神药物似乎是一种表演,在半裸着进入装满粪便污泥的坑槽的工人与社会人之间拉开了象征性的距离,因为社会人在 "正常精神状态 "下绝不会这样做。这一分析既要求解构塑造环卫行业的可耻和 "不人道 "的政策和规则,也要求提出改善这些条件的建议。此外,我们还探讨了我们作为研究人员的立场,即为什么揭示这些做法在以行动为导向的研究中是有意义的,但同时也必须考虑到伦理问题。除了机构伦理委员会的指导之外,与研究对象的短期和长期接触问题也是决定什么应该或不应该被调查的核心问题。因此,我们将为有关如何支持与已被污名化的人群一起并为他们提供更好的科学和实践的讨论做出贡献。
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引用次数: 0
What do Voters Want From Their Legislators? Evidence From Ghana 选民希望立法者做些什么?来自加纳的证据
IF 2.8 1区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1093/afraf/adae013
George Kwaku Ofosu
Legislators make trade-offs when allocating their time and resources to their multiple tasks of representation, legislation, executive oversight, and constituency service. Furthermore, they must decide how much effort to exert or the balance to strike when undertaking a specific function. Existing research provides limited insights into citizens’ preferences over these officeholder multifaceted decisions in sub-Saharan Africa. I offer novel insights into citizens’ preferences using a conjoint survey experiment of Ghanaians to address this knowledge gap. My findings are threefold. First, I find that citizens put more ‘weight’ on constituency-related activities than parliamentary work. Second, in the constituency, citizens value political representation activities more than constituency services. Third, they weigh public-good-oriented constituency services higher than private ones. The research contributes to our understanding of citizen–legislator accountability relationships in sub-Saharan Africa.
立法者在将时间和资源分配给代表、立法、行政监督和选民服务等多重任务时,需要做出取舍。此外,他们还必须决定在履行特定职能时需要付出多少努力或取得怎样的平衡。现有研究对撒哈拉以南非洲地区公民对这些官员多方面决策的偏好提供的洞察有限。我通过对加纳人进行联合调查实验,对公民的偏好提出了新的见解,以弥补这一知识空白。我的发现有三个方面。首先,我发现与议会工作相比,公民更 "重视 "与选区相关的活动。其次,在选区内,公民更看重政治代表活动而非选区服务。第三,他们对以公益为导向的选区服务的重视程度高于私人服务。这项研究有助于我们了解撒哈拉以南非洲地区公民与立法者之间的问责关系。
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引用次数: 0
Nigerian youth engagement in violent electoral environments: Political apathy or ‘Constrained Optimism’? 尼日利亚青年参与暴力选举环境:政治冷漠还是 "受限的乐观主义"?
IF 2.8 1区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: 10.1093/afraf/adae010
Justine Davis, Megan Turnbull
How do young citizens engage with politicians and their political environment in contexts where elections are frequently affected by violence? We explore this question through focus group discussions (FGDs) in Nigeria, a country with high rates of election violence. We argue that young voters in violent electoral environments operate with ‘constrained optimism’, where they perceive low government responsiveness but possess high levels of self-efficacy. Participants condemned violence and expressed little faith in political institutions and leaders to curtail violence, but they also felt a determination to elect a better government and a strong sense of a civic duty to vote, participate in politics, and encourage others to do so as well. Many participants also shared that they would continue to support their preferred candidate if they were accused of violence. Some participants raised concerns about the veracity of such allegations while others explained that politicians sometimes use violence for defensive purposes. Still others stated that they would continue to support candidates who expressed remorse for engaging in violence and committed to peaceful campaigning in the future. Taken together, we argue that young voters in violent contexts operate with ‘constrained optimism’ where they remain committed to democracy, but face constraints on who they support and how they participate. Our findings nuance expectations of the effects of electoral violence on political participation and better help us understand the challenges facing voters in contexts where violence is rife.
在选举经常受到暴力影响的情况下,年轻公民如何与政治家及其政治环境打交道?我们在选举暴力事件频发的尼日利亚通过焦点小组讨论(FGD)探讨了这一问题。我们认为,在暴力选举环境中,年轻选民会表现出 "受限的乐观主义",他们认为政府的回应能力较低,但却拥有较高的自我效能感。参与者谴责暴力,对政治机构和领导人减少暴力的信心不足,但他们也决心选出一个更好的政府,并强烈地意识到投票、参与政治和鼓励他人参与政治的公民责任。许多与会者还表示,如果他们喜欢的候选人被指控使用暴力,他们将继续支持他们。一些与会者对此类指控的真实性表示担忧,而另一些与会者则解释说,政客有时会出于自卫目的使用暴力。还有一些人表示,如果候选人对参与暴力活动表示悔意,并承诺今后将以和平方式开展竞选活动,他们将继续支持这些候选人。综上所述,我们认为,在暴力环境中,年轻选民的乐观态度是 "受限的",他们仍然致力于民主,但在支持对象和参与方式上却面临着限制。我们的研究结果使人们对选举暴力对政治参与影响的预期变得更加微妙,并有助于我们更好地理解在暴力频发的环境中选民所面临的挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Failed hereditary succession in comparative perspective: The case of Senegal (2000–2024) 从比较角度看失败的世袭继承:塞内加尔案例(2000-2024 年)
IF 2.8 1区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-05-06 DOI: 10.1093/afraf/adae007
Marie Brossier
Contrary to enduring theoretical expectations on neopatrimonialism, family successions are rare in sub-Saharan Africa. This article demonstrates that family successions are difficult to set up and might fail when rulers attempt to implement them. Building on the scholarship on political dynasties and family successions in broader comparative politics, I demonstrate that the study of failed attempts helps unveil the specific mechanisms of such failure. While scholarship documents how formal rules (such as term limits) constrain the ruler’s succession agenda, I contend that other types of constraints -party politics, opposition coalition, and public opinion-might also strongly impact it but have remained underexamined. The Senegal case study helps uncover these constraints. The article begins by emphasizing the theoretical importance and empirical challenges of studying non-cases of family successions and, more specifically, failed attempts. Then, the article examines the Senegalese failed hereditary succession between former President Abdoulaye Wade and his son Karim. Through a longitudinal single-country case study (2000–2024), this article employs process-tracing to uncover the three main interrelated mechanisms, which led to this failure: Popular resentment towards the succession attempt, a succession crisis due to the ruler’s not leaving power, and elite defection leading to party split. In mutually reinforcing each other, these dynamics converged to block the transfer of power from the ruler to his son. Therefore, this single case study of a failed attempt enhances our empirical and theoretical understanding of what drives variation in the success or failure of family succession. I argue that the role of actors (party elites and voters) in the succession process and how they engage with the rules of the game (mainly over party leadership selection and elections) impact the succession outcome.
与对新世袭制的持久理论预期相反,家族继承在撒哈拉以南非洲地区非常罕见。本文论证了家族继承难以建立,当统治者试图实施时可能会失败。在更广泛的比较政治学中有关政治王朝和家族继承的学术研究的基础上,我证明对失败尝试的研究有助于揭示这种失败的具体机制。虽然学术研究记录了正式规则(如任期限制)如何制约统治者的继任议程,但我认为其他类型的制约因素--政党政治、反对派联盟和公众舆论--也可能对继任议程产生重大影响,但却一直未得到充分研究。塞内加尔的案例研究有助于揭示这些制约因素。文章首先强调了研究非家族继承案例,更具体地说是研究失败尝试的理论重要性和实证挑战。然后,文章研究了塞内加尔前总统阿卜杜拉耶-瓦德和他的儿子卡里姆之间失败的世袭继承。通过对单一国家的纵向案例研究(2000-2024 年),本文采用过程追踪法揭示了导致此次失败的三大相互关联的机制:民众对继位企图的不满、统治者不下台导致的继位危机以及精英叛变导致的政党分裂。这些动力相互促进,共同阻碍了统治者向其儿子移交权力。因此,通过对这一失败尝试的单一案例研究,我们可以从经验和理论上进一步了解是什么导致了家族继承成败的变化。我认为,行为者(政党精英和选民)在继承过程中的角色以及他们如何参与游戏规则(主要是政党领导层的选择和选举)会影响继承结果。
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引用次数: 0
The limits of concentrated power: Bureaucratic independence and electricity crises in Rwanda 权力集中的局限性:卢旺达官僚机构的独立性与电力危机
IF 2.8 1区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-03-28 DOI: 10.1093/afraf/adae003
Benjamin Chemouni, Barnaby Dye
Rwanda is a posterchild of economic success in twenty-first century Africa. Dominant explanations for the country’s growth use the political settlements framework, asserting that concentrated political power enabled long-term planning. In contrast, this article uses the case of Rwanda’s impressive boom in electricity generation to demonstrate that such concentrated power also distorts policy-making processes, creating a fiscal crisis that jeopardizes Rwanda’s economic transformation. Therefore, this article questions a central premise of the political settlements framework. Concentrated political power in Rwanda enabled rapid and ambitious construction of power plants but resulted in an oversupply crisis, plunging the sector into significant debt and raising the cost of electricity. Rwanda’s political settlement prevented experts from challenging unrealistic targets set by top politicians, which led to a headlong pursuit of electricity generation capacity. To understand this process, we assert the importance of focusing on the bureaucratic/politician relationship, which we label ‘bureaucratic independence’, rather than on the oft-used concept of ‘bureaucratic autonomy’ usually associated with the concentration of political power.
卢旺达是二十一世纪非洲经济成功的典范。对该国经济增长的主要解释采用了政治解决框架,认为集中的政治权力使长期规划成为可能。与此相反,本文以卢旺达发电量的惊人增长为例,说明这种权力集中也扭曲了决策过程,造成了财政危机,危及卢旺达的经济转型。因此,本文对政治解决框架的一个核心前提提出了质疑。卢旺达集中的政治权力使得发电厂的建设迅速而雄心勃勃,但却导致了供过于求的危机,使该部门陷入巨额债务并提高了电力成本。卢旺达的政治体制阻碍了专家对高层政治家制定的不切实际的目标提出质疑,从而导致了对发电能力的盲目追求。为了理解这一过程,我们认为必须关注官僚与政治家之间的关系,我们称之为 "官僚独立性",而不是通常与政治权力集中相关的 "官僚自主性 "这一常用概念。
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引用次数: 0
Peacemaking in authoritarian context in Africa: promoting peace from below in Cameroon 在非洲专制背景下建立和平:在喀麦隆从下往上促进和平
IF 2.8 1区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-03-18 DOI: 10.1093/afraf/adae004
Claire Lefort-Rieu
Cameroon, traditionally overlooked on the international peace agenda, has recently received increased attention due to mounting security challenges. Operating under an authoritarian regime that denies conflicts while promoting a narrative of stability, the course of international peace-from-below initiatives is profoundly influenced by this constrained political environment. Through in-depth case studies of three ongoing humanitarian crises—the Central African refugees’ influx, the Boko Haram/Islamic State West Africa Province insurgency, and the Anglophone conflict—this article contends that localized peace approaches, centring on grassroots reconciliation, may obscure broader structural issues, silence non-state political claims from below, and absolve the state of its responsibilities. Embracing such methodologies not only reinforces authoritarian dynamics but also exhibits a performative dimension, contributing to the establishment of a ‘victor’s peace’ in the absence of military victory.
喀麦隆历来在国际和平议程上被忽视,但最近由于日益严峻的安全挑战而受到越来越多的关注。喀麦隆的独裁政权在宣传稳定的同时否认冲突的存在,这种受限的政治环境对国际和平倡议的进程产生了深远的影响。通过对三个正在发生的人道主义危机--中非难民潮、博科圣地/伊斯兰国西非省叛乱和英语冲突--的深入案例研究,本文认为,以基层和解为中心的本地化和平方法可能会掩盖更广泛的结构性问题,压制来自下层的非国家政治诉求,并免除国家的责任。采用这种方法不仅会加强独裁动态,而且会表现出表演性的一面,在没有军事胜利的情况下,有助于建立 "胜利者的和平"。
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引用次数: 0
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African Affairs
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