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Building intelligent alarm systems by combining mathematical models and inductive machine learning techniques 结合数学模型和归纳机器学习技术构建智能报警系统
Pub Date : 1996-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/0020-7101(95)01165-X
Bert Müller , A. Hasman , J.A. Blom

In this article a technique is described to develop knowledge-based alarm systems for ventilator therapy, using mathematical modeling and machine learning. With a mathematical model airway pressure, expiratory gas flow and CO2 concentration at the endotracheal tube are simulated for patients, undergoing volume-controlled ventilation with constant ventilator settings, during normal functioning of the breathing circuit and during breathing circuit mishaps (leaks and obstructions). Simulations were performed for 94 physiologically different ‘patients’, by varying airway resistance and lung thorax compliance values in the model. Each simulated breath was described by a set of derived signal features and a label that constituted during which event (normal function or mishap) the breath was recorded. With an inductive machine learning algorithm rules, linking signal feature values to breathing circuit events, were created from data of 54 of the simulated patients. The resulting set of rules was able to classify 99% of events in the data of the remaining 40 patients correctly. Of signals, measured at a ventilated lung simulator, 100% of events were classified correctly.

本文描述了一种利用数学建模和机器学习开发呼吸机治疗的基于知识的报警系统的技术。通过数学模型,模拟患者在恒定呼吸机设置下进行容量控制通气、呼吸回路正常运行和呼吸回路发生事故(泄漏和阻塞)时气管内管的气道压力、呼气气体流量和CO2浓度。通过改变模型中的气道阻力和肺胸顺应性值,对94名生理上不同的“患者”进行了模拟。每次模拟呼吸都由一组衍生的信号特征和一个标签来描述,该标签构成了记录呼吸事件(正常功能或事故)的过程。通过归纳机器学习算法,将信号特征值与呼吸回路事件联系起来,从54名模拟患者的数据中创建规则。由此产生的一套规则能够对其余40名患者数据中99%的事件进行正确分类。在通气肺模拟器上测量的信号中,100%的事件被正确分类。
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引用次数: 12
Knowledge retrieval as one type of knowledge-based decision support in medicine: results of an evaluation study 知识检索作为一种基于知识的医学决策支持:一项评价研究的结果
Pub Date : 1996-04-01 DOI: 10.1016/0020-7101(96)01160-9
R. Haux , W. Grothe , M. Runkel , H.K. Schackert , H.-J. Windeler , A. Winter , R. Wirtz , C. Herfarth , S. Kunze

We report on a prospective, prolective observational study, supplying information on how physicians and other health care professionals retrieve medical knowledge on-line within the Heidelberg University Hospital information system. Within this hospital information system, on-line access to medical knowledge has been realised by installing a medical knowledge server in the range of about 24 GB and by providing access to it by health care professional workstations in wards, physicians' rooms, etc. During the study, we observed about 96 accesses per working day. The main group of health care professionals retrieving medical knowledge were physicians and medical students. Primary reasons for its utilisation were identified as support for the users' scientific work (50%), own clinical cases (19%), general medical problems (14%) and current clinical problems (13%). Health care professionals had accesses to medical knowledge bases such as MEDLINE (79%). drug bases (‘Rote Liste’. 6%). and to electronic text books and knowledge base systems as well. Sixty-five percent of accesses to medical knowledge were judged to be successful. In our opinion, medical knowledge retrieval can serve as a first step towards knowledge processing in medicine. We point out the consequences for the management of hospital information systems in order to provide the prerequisites for such a type of knowledge retrieval.

我们报告了一项前瞻性的观察性研究,提供了医生和其他卫生保健专业人员如何在海德堡大学医院信息系统中在线检索医学知识的信息。在该医院信息系统内,通过安装约24 GB的医学知识服务器,并通过病房、医生室等卫生保健专业工作站提供对其的访问,实现了对医学知识的在线访问。在研究期间,我们观察到每个工作日约有96次访问。医疗卫生专业人员检索医学知识的主要群体为医师和医学生。使用它的主要原因被确定为支持用户的科学工作(50%)、自己的临床病例(19%)、一般医疗问题(14%)和当前临床问题(13%)。卫生保健专业人员可以访问医学知识库,如MEDLINE(79%)。毒品基地(“死记硬背的名单”)。6%). 电子教科书和知识库系统也是如此。65%的医疗知识获取被认为是成功的。我们认为,医学知识检索可以作为医学知识加工的第一步。我们指出了医院信息系统管理的后果,以便为这种类型的知识检索提供先决条件。
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引用次数: 24
Malthusian parameter on the Finnish population in the 20th century 马尔萨斯参数对20世纪芬兰人口的影响
Pub Date : 1996-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/0020-7101(95)01151-X
Katariina Juhola , Martti Juhola

We were interested in studying a demographic indicator, the Malthusian parameter which had not been investigated earlier in the case of the Finnish population. We computed the Malthusian parameter with a known renewal equation, which is, as usual, approximated on discrete data by using normal distribution, on the Finnish population in the 20th century. The data was collected from the abundant official statistical sources which are known to be accurate and reliable in Finland. In addition to this parameter we computed the gross and net reproduction rates, the total fertility index, and the mean and variance age of females at child-bearing. The Malthusian parameter seems to be a rather good means of characterizing the development of the population. If the parameter is positive for long enough, the population tends to grow. If it is negative, as has been the case in Finland since 1969, the population starts to diminish sooner or later. On the other hand, it cannot take all factors into account. For instance, because of still increasing lifetime and also because of a relatively large quantity of females at the reproductive age the population is not yet decreasing in Finland. In any case, the Malthusian parameter forecasts the future trend of the decreasing population.

我们感兴趣的是研究一项人口指标,即马尔萨斯参数,此前在芬兰人口的情况下没有进行过调查。我们用一个已知的更新方程来计算马尔萨斯参数,这个方程通常是用正态分布在离散数据上近似的,在20世纪的芬兰人口中。这些数据是从芬兰公认准确可靠的大量官方统计来源收集的。除了这个参数外,我们还计算了总繁殖率和净繁殖率、总生育指数以及女性生育年龄的平均值和方差。马尔萨斯参数似乎是描述人口发展的一个相当好的手段。如果参数为正的时间足够长,种群就趋于增长。如果它是负的,就像芬兰自1969年以来的情况一样,人口迟早会开始减少。另一方面,它不能考虑到所有的因素。例如,由于寿命仍在增加,而且由于处于生育年龄的女性数量相对较多,芬兰的人口尚未减少。无论如何,马尔萨斯参数预测了人口减少的未来趋势。
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引用次数: 2
Calculating confidence intervals for summary measures of individual curves via nonlinear regression models 通过非线性回归模型计算单个曲线的汇总度量的置信区间
Pub Date : 1996-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/0020-7101(95)01152-8
Ralf Bender

In biomedical research data are often collected serially over time. Hence, the main outcome is represented by response curves. A suitable approach to analyse such data is given by summary measures describing the main features of the response curves. An important issue is the precision of the estimated summary measures, which can be represented by confidence intervals. However, since summary measures frequently cannot be obtained via linear relationships, the calculation of confidence intervals involves some special considerations. In this paper attention is focused on unimodal response curves. Important summary measures for this type of response curves are the curve maximum (Cmax), the time to curve maximum (tmax), and the area under the curve (AUC). These summary measures can be calculated from the parameters of nonlinear regression models fitted to the data. Since the summary measures are nonlinear functions of the regression coefficients the multivariate delta method is used to derive formulas for the standard errors and confidence intervals of the summary measures. The method is illustrated by application to pharmacodynamic data.

在生物医学研究中,数据通常是随时间顺序收集的。因此,主要结果由响应曲线表示。通过描述响应曲线的主要特征的总结度量给出了分析这类数据的合适方法。一个重要的问题是估计的汇总度量的精度,它可以用置信区间表示。然而,由于通常不能通过线性关系获得汇总度量,因此计算置信区间涉及一些特殊考虑。本文关注的是单峰响应曲线。这类响应曲线的重要综合度量是曲线最大值(Cmax)、达到曲线最大值的时间(tmax)和曲线下面积(AUC)。这些综合测度可以由拟合数据的非线性回归模型的参数计算得到。由于汇总测度是回归系数的非线性函数,采用多元δ法推导了汇总测度的标准误差和置信区间公式。通过药效学数据的应用说明了该方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 5
Related content 相关内容
Pub Date : 1996-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/S0020-7101(96)90005-7
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引用次数: 0
Calender of events 事件日历
Pub Date : 1996-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/S0020-7101(96)90004-5
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引用次数: 0
Commentary 评论
Pub Date : 1996-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/S0020-7101(96)90001-X
J.G. Llaurado (Section Editor)
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引用次数: 0
An expert system based on causal knowledge: validation on post-cardiosurgical patients 基于因果知识的专家系统:对心脏手术后患者的验证
Pub Date : 1996-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/0020-7101(95)01153-6
E. Artioli, G. Avanzolini, L. Martelli, M. Ursino

A new expert system for the analysis of post-cardiosurgical patients in Intensive Care Units is described, and a preliminary validation performed. The inference engine employs a hybrid reasoning method which integrates quantitative and qualitative simulation techniques in an original manner. The long-term knowledge consists of a causal network which reproduces the main relationships between physiological quantities involved in the course after cardiac surgery. Emphasis has been given to respiratory and metabolic, as well as cardiovascular quantities both in the systemic and pulmonary circulations. Preliminary system validation has been performed on a set of 40 cardiosurgical patients, previously classified either at normal-risk (17 patients) or at high-risk (23 patients) by means of statistical classification techniques. In most cases, predictions of the expert system substantially agree with those provided by the more traditional statistical method. The system, however, is also able to furnish detailed explanations on the possible physiological causes responsible for the patient status. In particular, simulation results indicate that a reduction in the cardiac index (19 cases) and an increase in the oxygen utilization coefficient (19 cases) are the most critical alterations in the high-risk patients. The system imputes the reduced cardiac index to a rise in total systemic resistance (15 high-risk patients), a decrease in cardiac strength (2 high-risk patients) or an insufficient filling volume of the systemic circulation (4 high-risk patients). Furthermore, in 6 high-risk patients the depressed cardiac outflow occurs with a reduction in the arterial oxygen content, mainly imputable to an insufficiency of blood hemoglobin content. Finally, two examples of the complete expert system explanatory capabilities are shown with reference to a pair of high-risk patients and discussed.

本文描述了一种新的专家系统,用于分析重症监护病房的心脏手术后患者,并进行了初步验证。该推理引擎采用了一种混合推理方法,以新颖的方式将定量和定性模拟技术结合在一起。长期知识由一个因果网络组成,该网络再现了心脏手术后过程中涉及的生理量之间的主要关系。重点是呼吸和代谢,以及在体循环和肺循环中的心血管量。初步系统验证已在一组40例心脏外科患者中进行,这些患者先前通过统计分类技术分为正常风险(17例)和高风险(23例)。在大多数情况下,专家系统的预测基本上与更传统的统计方法提供的预测一致。然而,该系统也能够对可能导致患者状态的生理原因提供详细的解释。特别是,模拟结果表明,心脏指数的降低(19例)和氧气利用系数的增加(19例)是高危患者最关键的变化。该系统将心脏指数降低归因于全身总阻力升高(15例高危患者)、心脏强度下降(2例高危患者)或体循环充盈量不足(4例高危患者)。此外,在6例高危患者中,心流出量下降与动脉氧含量降低同时发生,主要归因于血液血红蛋白含量不足。最后,以一对高危患者为例,给出了完整的专家系统解释能力的两个例子,并进行了讨论。
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引用次数: 5
Security considerations for present and future medical databases 当前和未来医疗数据库的安全考虑
Pub Date : 1996-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/0020-7101(95)01154-4
Mirka Miller , Joan Cooper

In this paper we consider the security of medical databases. We give an overview of the security problems and the possible available mechanisms for the prevention of security compromises. Many of the security problems are common to all databases. However, the problem of data inference from statistical queries is particularly pertinent to medical databases and consequently we treat this problem in more detail. The paper concludes with a proposal for a Security Subsystem in a database management system.

本文主要研究医学数据库的安全性问题。我们概述了安全问题和防止安全危害的可能可用机制。许多安全问题对所有数据库都是常见的。然而,从统计查询中推断数据的问题与医学数据库特别相关,因此我们更详细地处理这个问题。最后提出了数据库管理系统中安全子系统的设计方案。
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引用次数: 14
Version 4 (health and sickness) of essentials of statistical methods 统计方法要点第4版(健康和疾病)
Pub Date : 1996-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/S0020-7101(96)90003-3
J.G. Llaurado
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引用次数: 3
期刊
International journal of bio-medical computing
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