In a previous article was demonstrated that the physician is over-optimistic while making an individual prognosis as to survival in patients of a psychogeriatric nursing home. In this investigation we have tried to relate the individual prognosis to the BOP (a Dutch derivative of the Stockton Geriatric Rating Scale). We introduced the term Prognosticated Longevity Quotient: the prognosticated survival in years divided by the expectation of life in Netherlanders of the same age and sex. In the 217 patients, prospectively studied, an inverse relation was found between PLQ- and BOP-values. At the end of the 45-months lasting investigation period, the initial PLQ turned out to have been lower and the BOP higher in those who had died compared to those who survived. Chances of being alive were greater in those with an initial PLQ > 0,5 while initial placement in an increasingly higher BOP-class indicated a decreasingly smaller chance of survival.
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