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Scientific and practical conference “Medical personnel: a look into the future” “医务人员:展望未来”科学与实践会议
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.3.16
Olga Aleksandrova, Elena Medvedeva, Olga Makhrova
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引用次数: 0
Commuting in Russia: scale and consequences 俄罗斯的通勤:规模和后果
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.3.2
Anastasia Sokolova, Olga Kalachikova
The article presents the scale of such a phenomenon as commuting according to the data of the All-Russian Population Census 2020 and Labor Force Sample Survey by Rosstat. The authors examined and systematized the consequences of commuting, which can be represented at three levels: at the level of territory, employer and employee, which can have both negative and positive impacts. For the recipient territory, commuting migrants become a source of labor resources and tax revenue that can be assessed positively. Increase in the burden on the transport infrastructure, the environment, and inaccuracies in assessing the demographic potential can be considered as conditionally negative. At the level of the employer, commuting solves stuffing problems; commuting migrants do not have a special status, so the employer may bear the risks of violating labor discipline, which are regulated in a general manner. With regard to the level of worker, assessment of the consequences depends on the life context, which determines the balance of advantages and costs of such an employment strategy, namely: wage size, position and status, duration of movement and distance to work, family circumstances, necessary or voluntary character of trips. In the final part of the article, the authors present a methodology for assessing the economic consequences of long-distance commuting for Russian regions.
本文根据俄罗斯国家统计局《2020年全俄人口普查》和《劳动力抽样调查》的数据,对通勤现象的规模进行了分析。作者从地域、雇主和雇员三个层面对通勤的后果进行了分析和系统化,这些后果既有消极影响,也有积极影响。对于接受国来说,通勤移民成为劳动力资源和税收收入的来源,可以得到积极的评价。运输基础设施、环境负担的增加以及人口潜力评估的不准确可被视为有条件的负面影响。在雇主的层面上,通勤解决了塞满员工的问题;通勤民工没有特殊的身份,因此用人单位可能会承担违反劳动纪律的风险,而劳动纪律是普遍规范的。关于工人的水平,对后果的评估取决于生活环境,它决定了这种就业战略的利弊平衡,即:工资数额、职位和地位、移动的时间和到工作地点的距离、家庭情况、旅行的必要或自愿性质。在文章的最后一部分,作者提出了一种评估俄罗斯地区长途通勤经济后果的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Features of credit behavior of Russian youth: trends and risks 俄罗斯青年信用行为特征:趋势与风险
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.3.14
Aziza Yarasheva, Natalia Alikperova, Dmitry Markov
The article discusses the current aspects of the credit behavior of Russians, including changes in the volume of borrowings over the past 4 years, as well as the dynamics of indebtedness, including overdue loans. Based on the results of the author’s sociological research (two measurements — in 2022 and 2023), the features of active actions and attitudes of young people in the field of debt behavior are identified. The analysis showed strengthening of the vector on the willingness to involve this age group of the population in credit practices. There was carried out a comparison of the attitudes of young people regarding the conditions under which evasion of obligations to repay debts is justified: 1) debts to credit institutions; 2) to relatives and acquaintances. The views of Russian youth on the censure for such evasion practices in Russian society are examined. The survey results show that the presence of a loan agreement of respondents contributes to formation of a more responsible behavior regarding compliance with payment deadlines, in contrast to the situation of the absence of debt (only with the intention to enter into debt relations). The position of young people in relation to the violation of loan repayment terms is different in different groups: the youngest respondents (17–20 years old) see more reasons for the possibility of non-repayment of the loan. Among the reasons why it is permissible, in the opinion of young people, not to repay debts, the most compelling for respondents are the situations when the loan was issued by fraudsters without the consent of the person himself (67%), in case of serious health problems and the need to spend on treatment (38%), if the lender increased the interest on the loan unilaterally (34%), in case of job loss (26%). Credit risks typical not only for young people, but also for all age groups of Russians are highlighted: deterioration of the “credit quality” of borrowers and risks of breach of obligations (non-payment and violation of repayment terms) on loans due to a decrease in real income.
本文讨论了俄罗斯信贷行为的当前方面,包括过去4年借款量的变化,以及债务的动态,包括逾期贷款。根据作者的社会学研究结果(两次测量-在2022年和2023年),确定了年轻人在债务行为领域的积极行动和态度的特征。分析表明,加强了向量的意愿,让这一年龄组的人口参与信贷实践。对年轻人的态度进行了比较,在哪些条件下逃避偿还债务的义务是合理的:1)对信贷机构的债务;2)给亲戚和熟人。俄罗斯青年对俄罗斯社会对这种逃避行为的谴责的看法进行了审查。调查结果显示,与没有债务的情况(只有建立债务关系的意图)相比,有贷款协议的受访者有助于形成更负责任的行为,遵守付款期限。年轻人对违反贷款还款条款的看法在不同群体中是不同的:最年轻的受访者(17-20岁)认为有更多的理由可能无法偿还贷款。年轻人认为,在允许不偿还债务的原因中,最令人信服的是欺诈者在未经本人同意的情况下发放贷款(67%),严重的健康问题和需要花钱治疗(38%),贷款人单方面增加贷款利息(34%),以及失业(26%)的情况。信贷风险不仅针对年轻人,也针对俄罗斯所有年龄段的人:借款人的“信用质量”恶化,以及由于实际收入减少而导致贷款违约(不付款和违反还款条款)的风险。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of the regional differentiation factors of indicators of electricity consumption by the population of Russia 俄罗斯人口用电量指标的区域差异因素分析
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.3.9
Elena Ryumina
In the article, the attitude of the population to energy conservation is considered as one of the characteristics of human potential. A strong differentiation of the indicator of electricity consumption by the population by countries and Russian regions is shown, a number of factors influencing the identified differences are analyzed. Hypothetically, the following seven factors are identified: climate; average per capita income of the population; rate of poverty; proportion of people with higher education; ratio of urban and rural population; age structure of the population; level of gasification of the housing stock. The information for analysis was taken not only from the federal statistical collections, but also for each region, that made data collecting very difficult. Correlations between the per capita electricity consumption by the population and these factors are determined. It is shown that people are more inclined to save their electricity costs than the electric energy itself, i.e. electricity tariffs for the population play a decisive role in stimulating energy saving. Per capita electricity costs have a positive relationship with average per capita income and a negative relationship with poverty rate. The rural population consumes less electricity per capita than the urban population. The impact of the population age structure on per capita energy consumption was found: the higher the proportion of the able-bodied population, the lower the electricity consumption, and vice versa, energy consumption is higher in regions with a larger proportion of the older generation. Due to the different levels of gasification by regions, the sample, formed from the regions with approximately the same level of gasification of the housing stock, was separately studied. The results of the correlation analysis of this sample turned out to differ little from the results obtained for all 85 regions. The exception was the relationship between the volume of electricity consumption and the level of higher education — in the sample there was a much closer negative relationship between these indicators.
在本文中,人们对节能的态度被认为是人类潜能的特征之一。各国和俄罗斯各地区的人口用电量指标存在很大差异,分析了影响已确定差异的若干因素。假设确定了以下七个因素:气候;人口人均收入;贫困率;受过高等教育的人口比例;城乡人口比例;人口年龄结构;房屋存量的气化程度。用于分析的信息不仅来自联邦统计收集,而且来自每个地区,这使得数据收集非常困难。确定了人口人均用电量与这些因素之间的相关性。研究表明,人们更倾向于节省电费而不是电能本身,即人口电价在促进节能方面起着决定性作用。人均电力成本与人均收入呈正相关,与贫困率呈负相关。农村人口的人均用电量比城市人口少。人口年龄结构对人均能耗的影响发现:健全人口比例越高,用电量越低,反之,老年人口比例越大的地区,用电量越高。由于不同地区的气化程度不同,因此分别研究了由房屋存量气化程度大致相同的地区形成的样品。该样本的相关分析结果与所有85个地区的结果相差不大。唯一的例外是用电量与高等教育水平之间的关系——在样本中,这些指标之间的负相关关系更为密切。
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引用次数: 0
VI International scientific and practical conference: Rimashevskaya readings “Saving russian population: health, employment, standards and quality of life” 第六次国际科学和实践会议:Rimashevskaya朗读"拯救俄罗斯人民:健康、就业、标准和生活质量"
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.3.15
Valentina Dobrokhleb, Irina Milovanova
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引用次数: 0
Modern demographic problems of the Republic of Tuva 图瓦共和国的现代人口问题
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.3.4
Shonchalay Soyan
The article gives an assessment of modern demographic problems in the border region of Russia — the Republic of Tuva. The results of the study are presented by methods of grouping, generalization, comparative, structural, logical and statistical analysis, graphic method. The empirical basis for theoretical generalizations and practical developments was the data of Rosstat, Krasnoyarsk State Statistics Service, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Tuva and others. The Republic of Tuva has a high birth rate (20.0‰) (2nd place in 2021 among the regions of Russia after the Chechen Republic (20.1‰), exceeding the mortality rate of the population, which looks favorably against the all-Russian background. Nevertheless, according to the results of the study of demographic processes in the republic, unfavorable trends in the demographic situation have also been revealed: a decrease in the birth rate, an increase in mortality rate, a decrease in the population of the majority of kozhuuns (municipal districts). By 2021, in comparison with 2000, there was a decrease in the population in 10 of 17 kozhuuns of the republic. Of particular concern is migration outflow, which is the main factor of the decline in the population of the border kozhuuns of the Republic of Tuva. The conducted forecasting for the short term showed a slight increase in the population of Tuva. The cluster analysis made it possible to identify the kozhuuns with the most favorable, deteriorating and unfavorable demographic situation. Favorable demographic situation is observed only in the city of Kyzyl — the capital of the Republic of Tuva. A relatively favorable demographic characteristic is observed only in 6 kozhuuns of the republic. The risks of population decline are observed in 5 kozhuuns. 7 kozhuuns of Tuva are marked by an unfavorable demographic situation.
本文对俄罗斯图瓦共和国边境地区的现代人口问题进行了评估。采用分组、归纳、比较、结构分析、逻辑分析、统计分析、图解等方法给出了研究结果。理论概括和实际发展的经验基础是俄罗斯国家统计局、克拉斯诺亚尔斯克州统计局、图瓦共和国卫生部和其他机构的数据。图瓦共和国的出生率很高(20.0‰)(2021年在俄罗斯各地区中排名第二,仅次于车臣共和国(20.1‰)),超过了人口死亡率,这在全俄罗斯背景下是有利的。然而,根据对共和国人口进程的研究结果,也揭示了人口状况的不利趋势:出生率下降,死亡率上升,大多数科准(市辖区)人口减少。到2021年,与2000年相比,共和国17个科准中有10个人口减少。特别令人关切的是移民外流,这是图瓦共和国边境科朱人人口减少的主要因素。进行的短期预测显示图瓦人口略有增加。聚类分析可以识别出人口状况最有利、最恶化和最不利的科准。只有图瓦共和国首都克济勒市的人口情况比较有利。相对有利的人口特征仅在共和国的6个科准中观察到。在5个科准观察到人口下降的危险。图瓦的7个科准的特点是不利的人口状况。
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引用次数: 0
Russia’s demographic future: forecasts and reality 俄罗斯人口的未来:预测与现实
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.3.1
Leonid Rybakovsky
The article refers to the forecast as a tool to suggest a possible demographic development, which may occur either by itself as a result of the continuation of the current trends, or as a result of the implementation of measures specially taken for this purpose. The history of the development of demographic forecasting, its implementation in the Soviet years and in modern Russia is briefly shown. The practical significance of reliable forecasts for Russia, whose population growth is one of the conditions for preserving its independence, territorial integrity and status as a Great Power, is highlighted. The article expresses the author’s opinion regarding the multivariate forecasts in the demographic sphere and the use of methods that are not peculiar to social phenomena, such as population. Much attention is paid to characteristics of the forecasts compiled by Rosstat and its predecessor Goskomstat of Russia, their comparison with UN forecasts, comparison with the actual population. The final part of the article compares various versions of modern forecasts of Rosstat, substantiates the need to implement those of them that correspond to the practical interests of the country and its regions. The conclusions emphasize that one of the omissions of Rosstat is the use for practical purposes of the so-called average version of the population forecast, which it considers the most realistic. How to achieve implementation of the normative option for the country, if the regions are focused on achieving the population size according to the average option? If we proceed from the strategic goal of Russia’s demographic development, it is obvious that for this, in addition to the forecast— extrapolation, which shows what will happen if the current trends continue, only a normative forecast is needed that indicates the necessary parameters of the population dynamics, corresponding to the national interests of the country.Therefore, for the regions, their population sizes corresponding to high options should be brought up, since only the sum of these values in all regions corresponds to the normative forecast for Russia. This option, rather than the middle one, is or should be provided by the necessary set of population policies.
该条提到预测是一种工具,用来提出一种可能的人口发展,这种发展可能由于目前趋势的继续而自行发生,也可能由于执行为此目的特别采取的措施而发生。简要介绍了人口预测的发展历史及其在苏联时期和现代俄罗斯的实施情况。报告强调了可靠的预测对俄罗斯的实际意义,因为俄罗斯的人口增长是维护其独立、领土完整和大国地位的条件之一。这篇文章表达了作者对人口领域的多元预测以及使用非社会现象(如人口)特有的方法的看法。俄罗斯国家统计局(Rosstat)及其前身俄罗斯国家统计局(Goskomstat)编制的预测的特点、与联合国预测的比较、与实际人口的比较得到了很多关注。文章的最后部分比较了俄罗斯国家统计局各种版本的现代预测,证明了实施符合国家和地区实际利益的预测的必要性。结论强调,俄罗斯统计局的遗漏之一是为了实际目的而使用所谓的人口预测的平均版本,它认为这是最现实的。如果各地区以实现人口规模按平均方案为重点,如何实现对国家的规范方案实施?如果我们从俄罗斯人口发展的战略目标出发,很明显,为此,除了预测外推,这表明如果目前的趋势继续下去会发生什么,只需要一个规范的预测,表明人口动态的必要参数,符合国家的国家利益。因此,对于区域,应该提出对应于高选项的人口规模,因为只有所有区域的这些值的总和才符合对俄罗斯的规范预测。这一选择,而不是中间的选择,是或应该由一套必要的人口政策提供。
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引用次数: 0
Changes in China’s demographic policy in 2010–2021 2010-2021年中国人口政策变化
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.3.6
Shaofu Wang, Xianning Jia, Svetlana Mishchuk
The demographic situation in China at the end of the 20th — beginning of the 21st centuries was characterized by transformations concerning both the general dynamics of the population, and the changes in the age, gender, and educational structures. At the beginning of the 21st century, China’s demographic policy measures evolved significantly. The main objective of this study is to identify the priority directions of demographic policy including support for the birth rate at the present stage. The article presents results of the analysis of the main demographic indicators, proposes a typology of the factors of the current demographic situation including historical, ideological and material backgrounds. The second part of the artivle provides an analysis of the main measures aimed at supporting the birth rate at the country level as a whole, and in separate provinces. The analysis is based on the regulatory documents concerning the birth rate policy in China in the period from 2010 to 2021, as well as the data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. It is shown that during the past decade in China the family planning and birth control have been replaced by an active policy of stimulating the birth rate. Financial instruments play an important role in shaping the main areas of birth support. In addition, much attention is paid by the state to the issue of expanding the childcare infrastructure, educational institutions, creating preferential conditions for women with children in the field of employment, etc.
20世纪末至21世纪初,中国的人口状况呈现出人口总体动态变化和年龄、性别、教育结构变化的特征。21世纪初,中国的人口政策措施发生了重大变化。本研究的主要目的是确定人口政策的优先方向,包括现阶段对出生率的支持。文章介绍了主要人口指标的分析结果,提出了影响当前人口状况的历史、思想和物质背景因素的类型学。文章的第二部分分析了旨在支持整个国家和各省出生率的主要措施。本分析基于2010年至2021年中国生育政策的规范性文件,以及中国国家统计局的数据。这表明,在过去的十年里,中国的计划生育和计划生育已经被积极的刺激出生率的政策所取代。金融工具在形成生育支助的主要领域方面发挥着重要作用。此外,国家非常重视扩大儿童保育基础设施、教育机构、在就业领域为有孩子的妇女创造优惠条件等问题。
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引用次数: 0
V International scientific and practical conference “Social dynamics of population and human potential” 五、“人口与人类潜能的社会动态”国际科学与实践会议
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.3.17
Inna Nazarova, Sofia Lyalikova
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引用次数: 0
Future risk in Japanese parents raising children with special needs 日本父母抚养有特殊需要的孩子的未来风险
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.3.12
Naoya Hakumura
This paper examines relationships in married couples raising children with special needs — children requiring medical care, from an economic point of view in the context of parental employment. There is an opinion that the burden of parents with children requiring medical care who are close to being a “handicapped child” is so heavy, that the couple’s relationship can be jeopardized. How does the parents’ employment relate to the burden of parenting and how does it affect the couple’s relationship? The research method is a survey of married couples with children throughout Japan (conducted in 2021). The questionnaire consisted of two parts: with multiple choice questions and open-ended questions. The multiple choice questions dealt with (1) family structure: number of persons in the household including number of children requiring medical care and their age, (2) parental employment, and (3) marital relationship (division of housework and childcare, communication between parents, frequency and reasons for fights). In considering how parents work, terms such as “shared responsibility” for dual-income families and “isolation” and “cooperation” for single-income families were key words in considering sustainable marital relations. The open-ended questions part shows what is necessary for the parents to maintain a sustainable relationship. In this paper we come to the conclusion that one of the reasons for troubles that the parents face is the fact that the definition of the term “children requiring medical care” is too broad. We suggested that this term should be subdivided so that administrative support could be spread widely, and that support should be tailored to the family’s lifestyle (e.g., career and other parental needs).
本文从父母就业的经济角度考察了已婚夫妇抚养有特殊需要的孩子——需要医疗照顾的孩子——的关系。有一种观点认为,由于子女接近残疾,需要医疗照顾的父母负担太重,可能会危及夫妻关系。父母的工作与养育子女的负担有何关系?这对夫妻关系有何影响?研究方法是对日本各地有子女的已婚夫妇进行调查(2021年)。问卷由两部分组成:选择题和开放式问题。多项选择题涉及(1)家庭结构:家庭中的人数,包括需要医疗照顾的儿童人数及其年龄;(2)父母的就业情况;(3)婚姻关系(家务和育儿的分工、父母之间的沟通、争吵的频率和原因)。在考虑父母如何工作时,双收入家庭的"共同责任"和单收入家庭的"孤立"和"合作"等术语是考虑可持续婚姻关系的关键词。开放式问题部分显示了父母维持可持续关系的必要条件。在本文中,我们得出的结论是,父母面临的麻烦的原因之一是“需要医疗照顾的儿童”一词的定义过于宽泛。我们建议这个术语应该细分,以便行政支持可以广泛传播,并且支持应该根据家庭的生活方式(例如,职业和其他父母需求)量身定制。
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引用次数: 0
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