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Social well-being in coronacrisis: Who took the brunt of it? 冠状病毒危机中的社会福祉:谁首当其冲?
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.3.8
Dmitry Loginov
Basing on the data from the representative sociological survey held by the Institute of Social Analysis and Forecasting RANEPA in March 2021, the socio-economic difficulties faced by various groups of the Russian population during the pandemic year were studied. It was found out that the negative trend of financial well-being rather widely characterizing Russians was most widespread among the middle-aged Russians and among those holding the lowest employment positions. The practice of consumer savings, which is slightly differentiated by demographic groups, is in the highest degree (at the level higher than 80%) related to those who have low financial status and significant loan burden. Two thirds of the working respondents, primarily representatives of management-level, faced a variety of problems in the sphere of employment caused by the specifics of the crisis context. Mass shift to a remote format of employment which became quite successful as a situational adaptive mechanism has turned out to be associated with decrease in work productivity and comfort of working duties performance. More than half of the respondents faced changes in habitual recreational and leisure practices, and 23% of them—significant changes. Women, representatives of the most active youth cohort and dwellers of megacities perceive these changes most acutely. The period under consideration is characterized by significant negative dynamics in interpersonal trust beyond the “nearest circle” in all socio-demographic groups of the population. Social interactions of Russians are mostly developed within “the nearest circle of communication”, firstly—with relatives; the level of trust and hope for help in case of need from governmental and public institutes is much lower. Representatives of the least resource-rich groups of the population show a lower level of involvement in the networks of potential social support that further limits the adaptation potential of the vulnerable strata of population.
根据社会分析和预测研究所2021年3月进行的具有代表性的社会学调查的数据,研究了俄罗斯人口各群体在大流行年面临的社会经济困难。调查发现,俄罗斯人普遍存在的经济状况不佳的趋势在中年俄罗斯人和就业岗位最低的俄罗斯人中最为普遍。消费储蓄的做法,在人口群体中略有差异,在最高程度上(高于80%的水平)与经济状况较低和贷款负担较大的人相关。三分之二的在职应答者,主要是管理阶层的代表,在就业领域面临着由危机背景的具体情况引起的各种问题。作为一种情境适应机制,大规模转向远程工作模式已被证明与工作效率的降低和工作职责表现的舒适度有关。超过一半的受访者在习惯的娱乐和休闲活动中面临变化,其中23%的人发生了重大变化。妇女,最活跃的青年群体的代表和大城市的居民对这些变化的感知最为敏锐。本报告所述期间的特点是,在人口的所有社会人口群体中,在“最近圈子”之外的人际信任方面出现了严重的消极动态。俄罗斯人的社会交往主要是在“最近的交流圈”内进行的,首先是与亲戚;对政府和公共机关的信任程度和在需要时提供帮助的希望要低得多。人口中资源最不丰富群体的代表对潜在社会支持网络的参与程度较低,这进一步限制了脆弱人口阶层的适应潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Demographic situation in China and its potential influence on the Chinese economy 中国的人口状况及其对中国经济的潜在影响
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.3.5
Kirill Babaev
The article analyses the origins of the current demographic situation in China, its perception in Western scientific and expert circles, as well as the measures of today’s demographic policy of the PRC authorities and forecasts for further changes in the structure of the Chinese economy in the context of the “second demographic transition” taking place in the country. The main phases in the demographic policy of China since the creation of the PRC are briefly described: from the active encouragement of fertility in the 1950s and 1960s to the “one family — one child” policy of severe restrictions (1980–2015) and then return to the encouragement of fertility. It is shown that the current demographic policy of the Chinese authorities not only meets the economic needs but also has a social and ideological dimension, returning the country to traditional Confucian ideas of the role of population growth as a factor of the country’s power and prosperity. At the same time, the measures of the present Chinese authorities do not demonstrate a high level of efficiency and are unlikely to reverse the trend of the demographic transition. Still the paper concludes that the forecasts of some experts about the inevitable loss of growth momentum in the Chinese economy in the context of the natural population decline that began in 2022 cannot be considered fully realistic. China actually follows the global trend of transition to a “plateau” in population growth, as gradually becoming one of developed economies of the world. China’s future political and economic influence in the world will depend rather on the quality than on the size of its population and labor force.
本文分析了中国当前人口状况的起源、西方科学界和专家对这一状况的看法,以及中国当局今天的人口政策措施,并预测了在中国正在发生的“第二次人口转型”背景下中国经济结构的进一步变化。简要描述了新中国成立以来中国人口政策的主要阶段:从20世纪50年代和60年代的积极鼓励生育到严格限制的“一户一孩”政策(1980-2015年),然后再回到鼓励生育。这表明,中国当局目前的人口政策不仅满足经济需求,而且具有社会和意识形态维度,使国家回归到传统的儒家思想,即人口增长是国家力量和繁荣的一个因素。与此同时,目前中国当局的措施并没有显示出高水平的效率,也不太可能扭转人口结构转变的趋势。尽管如此,论文的结论是,一些专家关于在2022年开始的人口自然下降的背景下,中国经济增长势头不可避免地会失去的预测,不能被认为是完全现实的。中国实际上遵循了人口增长向“平台期”过渡的全球趋势,逐渐成为世界发达经济体之一。中国未来在世界上的政治和经济影响力将取决于其人口和劳动力的质量,而不是其规模。
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引用次数: 0
Targeted allowances for children aged 3–7 and 8–17: accessibility, effectiveness and lessons for unified benefit 针对3-7岁和8-17岁儿童的定向津贴:可及性、有效性和统一受益的课程
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.3.7
Elena Grishina, Elena Tsatsura
Families with children can receive monthly payments of a substantial amount (from 50% to 100% of the child’s subsistence minimum). In January 2023, a unified benefit for children was introduced, extending to all categories of the child population the rules of monthly payments provided to low-income families with children aged 3–7 and 8–17. Based on 5 waves of telephone surveys conducted by RANEPA in the period from October 2021 to November 2022, as well as an analysis of comments from Internet sources, the article analyzes the risk of poverty for families with children from 3 to 17 years of age, accessibility of social support, coverage and effectiveness of monthly payments for children aged 3–17. It is shown that households with children aged 3–17 have 1.5 times higher risk of poverty that rises with an increase in the number of children, as well as in the presence of the unemployed, and living in rural areas. By the end of 2022, more than 20% of households with children of this age were covered by payments in question, among families with 3 and more children — 47%. At the same time, less than half of poor households with children aged 3–17 are covered by these payments. Due to provision of payments, the share of poor households decreased in November 2022 by 1.18 times. Several factors remain, which lead to significant exclusion errors that reduces the impact of the monthly payments on poverty. When switching to the unified benefit for children from 0 to 17 years of age, it is important to take into account the experience of providing support for children aged 3–7 and 8–17 in order to make timely adjustments that will increase the coverage of needy families and raise the impact of the benefit on poverty.
有子女的家庭每月可领取一笔数额可观的款项(从儿童最低生活费用的50%到100%)。2023年1月,实行了一项统一的儿童福利,将每月向有3-7岁和8-17岁儿童的低收入家庭提供补贴的规定扩大到所有类别的儿童。基于RANEPA在2021年10月至2022年11月期间进行的5波电话调查,以及对网络资源评论的分析,本文分析了3 - 17岁儿童家庭的贫困风险、社会支持的可及性、3 - 17岁儿童每月补助的覆盖率和有效性。研究表明,有3-17岁儿童的家庭陷入贫困的风险是其他家庭的1.5倍,这种风险随着儿童数量的增加、失业人数的增加以及生活在农村地区而增加。到2022年底,有3个及以上孩子的家庭中,有超过20%的家庭获得了相关补贴,其中47%的家庭获得了补贴。与此同时,只有不到一半的有3-17岁儿童的贫困家庭享受到这些补贴。2022年11月,贫困家庭的比重比去年同期减少了1.18倍。仍有几个因素导致严重的排除错误,从而减少了每月付款对贫困的影响。在转向为0 - 17岁儿童提供统一福利时,重要的是要考虑到为3-7岁和8-17岁儿童提供支持的经验,以便及时做出调整,扩大贫困家庭的覆盖范围,提高福利对贫困的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Institution of certification of medical workers: the reasons for dysfunction 医务人员资格认证制度:功能障碍的原因
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.3.13
Olga Kolennikova
Institutions of qualification assessment in the field of medicine are designed for improving the level of qualification of medical specialists, and as a result for providing quality medical care. One of them is certification of medical workers for the qualification category. Certification was introduced into the Soviet healthcare system, but in recent years, the interest of doctors in obtaining the category has significantly weakened. This actualizes clarification of the causes of the situation. The article makes a retrospective analysis involving a wide range of sources of the regulatory and statistical information and presents an assessment of the factors of this phenomenon by medical specialists themselves, obtained during their questionnaire survey in organizations of Moscow. The obtained results showed that the dysfunction of the certification institute was caused by a complex of internal and external factors. First of all, there was a failure in the mechanism of material incentives, directly related to the general system of remuneration in the public sector of the economy. Due to the work overload, the conditions for preparing for certification activities have deteriorated significantly, the interest of managers in having workers of the category has decreased, and the prestige of the category itself, especially among young cadres, has fallen. Therefore, without taking special measures, the institute of certification for the qualification category is threatened with deinstitutionalization. The key areas of the necessary changes are revision of the operating mode with reservation of the required time for additional professional training, as well as organizational combination of the certification and accreditation examination procedures. The restoration of the effectiveness of material incentives for the category can be expected with the introduction of a new wage system in the public sector of medicine, but the start of its testing has been postponed again until 2025.
医学领域的资格评估机构旨在提高医学专家的资格水平,从而提供高质量的医疗服务。其中之一是对医务工作者资格类别的认证。认证被引入苏联医疗保健系统,但近年来,医生对获得这一类别的兴趣明显减弱。这就澄清了造成这种情况的原因。本文回顾分析了管制和统计信息的广泛来源,并提出了医学专家在莫斯科各组织进行问卷调查时对这一现象的因素进行的评估。研究结果表明,认证机构的功能失调是由内外因素综合作用的结果。首先,与公共经济部门的一般薪酬制度直接有关的物质奖励机制失败了。由于工作负担过重,准备认证活动的条件明显恶化,管理人员对拥有该类别工人的兴趣下降,该类别本身的威望,特别是在年轻干部中,已经下降。因此,如果不采取特殊措施,资格类别认证机构将面临去机构化的威胁。必要改革的关键领域是修订业务模式,保留必要的时间进行额外的专业培训,以及在组织上将核证和认可考试程序结合起来。随着在公共医疗部门实行新的工资制度,可以预期对这类人员恢复物质奖励的效力,但其试验的开始再次推迟到2025年。
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引用次数: 0
Opinions of Russian townspeople about involvement of protected natural areas in their life 俄罗斯城镇居民对自然保护区在他们生活中的参与的看法
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.3.10
Tatyana Melnikova, Lidia Portnova, Natalya Obidovskaya, Karina Prikhodko
Along the development of specially protected natural areas (SPNA), many urban areas are also deeply saturated with them. SPNAs can play an important role in the local economic and social development, however, the methodology for studying the involvement of SPNAs in the local population life is not well developed that determined the purpose of the paper. It is proposed, on the basis of a survey of the population living in the territories adjacent to the SPNA, and within the region, to identify the features of the cultural, recreation and economic behavior of citizens in the protected areas. The methodology was tested in the urban districts of Orenburg, Bryansk and Krasnodar. As a result of the survey, the opinion of the population about specific SPNAs in urban districts was revealed. On average, SPNAs are visited by 20% to 40% of the local residents, who mostly stay in SPNAs for 3–5 hours. More than half of local visitors to protected areas use catering services. Payment for sports and recreation services is more typical for residents of Orenburg and Bryansk. According to local residents, they spend an average of 1.1 to 3.6 thousand rubles per visit to protected areas. According to the frequency of visits to protected areas declared by people, the cost per month can range from 13 rubles to 7.9 thousand rubles. Taking into account the data of economic statistics and the results of the survey, the annual expenditures of local residents on protected areas were estimated, which in Orenburg made 1.4 billion rubles (or 0.9% of the income of the city population), in Bryansk — 2.1 billion rubles (or 1.6%) of the income), and in Krasnodar — 8.7 billion rubles (or 1.7% of the income). The approach of analytical processing of survey results and comparison of different sources of information, proposed by the authors, makes it possible to expand data on municipalities.
随着特殊自然保护区(SPNA)的发展,许多城市地区也被其深深饱和。特别方案中心可以在地方经济和社会发展中发挥重要作用,然而,研究特别方案中心对地方人口生活的影响的方法尚不完善,这决定了本文的目的。建议在对毗邻国家保护区的领土和区域内的居民进行调查的基础上,确定保护区内公民的文化、娱乐和经济行为的特点。该方法在奥伦堡、布良斯克和克拉斯诺达尔的市区进行了测试。根据调查结果,揭示了居民对城市各区具体的特殊住区的看法。平均有20%至40%的当地居民会光顾spa,他们大多会在spa停留3-5个小时。到保护区的当地游客中有一半以上使用餐饮服务。对于奥伦堡和布良斯克的居民来说,体育和娱乐服务的付费更为典型。据当地居民称,他们每次去保护区平均花费1.1万至3.6万卢布。根据人们申报的访问保护区的频率,每月的费用从13卢布到79000卢布不等。考虑到经济统计数据和调查结果,估计了当地居民每年在保护区的支出,其中奥伦堡为14亿卢布(占城市人口收入的0.9%),布良斯克为21亿卢布(占收入的1.6%),克拉斯诺达尔为87亿卢布(占收入的1.7%)。作者提出的对调查结果进行分析处理和比较不同资料来源的方法,使扩大有关城市的数据成为可能。
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引用次数: 0
Threshold of old age: objective signs and subjective perception 老年门槛:客观标志与主观感知
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.3.11
Anatoly Antonov, Inna Nazarova, Vera Karpova, Sofia Lyalikova
Population aging is a demographic trend characteristic of most world countries, it requires attention from various social institutions. The situation of the growing number of older people around the world increases the relevance of studying this issue. The article aggregates data from different sources that determine the boundaries of the onset of old age based on various theoretical and methodological approaches. It also shows the proportion of old people in the demographic structure of the Russian population in accordance with the chosen approaches. It is shown that the most popular age of the onset of old age, reflected in theoretical concepts, is within the range of 60–65 years. The article presents the results of the authors’ study, which covered 1198 respondents from more than 65 regions of the Russian Federation (organized by Lomonosov Moscow State University together with ISESP FCTAS RAS in 2022). During the analysis of the data obtained, some inconsistencies were found between the boundaries fixed in scientific discourse and the ideas of the study participants about the moment of the onset of old age. The results obtained showed the absence of significant differences in ideas about the moment of old age for men and women (69.4 and 68.0 years, respectively). There is a tendency to postpone the age of old age with an increase in the age of respondent. A correlation between the actual and psychological age of old age showed that “premature” aging (when a person recognizes himself as old, before he exceeds the age of old age he named) is found in more than half of the respondents who associate themselves with older people.
人口老龄化是世界上大多数国家的人口趋势特征,需要引起社会各界的重视。世界各地老年人数量不断增加的情况增加了研究这一问题的相关性。本文汇总了来自不同来源的数据,这些数据基于各种理论和方法方法确定了老年发病的界限。它还根据所选择的方法显示了老年人在俄罗斯人口结构中的比例。结果表明,从理论概念上反映,老年开始的最普遍年龄在60-65岁之间。本文介绍了作者的研究结果,该研究涵盖了来自俄罗斯联邦65个地区的1198名受访者(由罗蒙诺索夫莫斯科国立大学与ISESP FCTAS RAS于2022年组织)。在对获得的数据进行分析时,发现科学话语中固定的边界与研究参与者关于老年开始时刻的想法之间存在一些不一致之处。结果显示,男性和女性对老年时刻的看法没有显著差异(分别为69.4岁和68.0岁)。随着被调查者年龄的增加,老年年龄有推迟的趋势。老年的实际年龄和心理年龄之间的相关性表明,在与老年人有联系的受访者中,超过一半的人发现了“过早”衰老(当一个人在超过他所指定的老年年龄之前认识到自己已经老了)。
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引用次数: 0
Regional features of the demographic processes in the Russian-Kazakh cross-border regions 俄罗斯-哈萨克边境地区人口进程的区域特征
Pub Date : 2023-09-20 DOI: 10.19181/population.2023.26.3.3
Aleksandr Sokolov, Oksana Rudneva
Formation of new borders has transformed the adjacent territories of Russia and Kazakhstan into a new political and socio-economic space. The purpose of the work is to analyze demographic processes with the account of the territorial features of the Russian-Kazakh border area in the conditions of modern political, economic and social integrations. The use of methods of economic and statistical analysis made it possible to identify the vector and dynamics of the demographic processes in the adjacent border territories. Based on the analysis of spatial differentiation of population changes by administrative entities of the Russian-Kazakh cross–border area in the period 1989–2021, there were identified six regional groups with different character of the demographic situation — from critical to most favorable. As a result of the analysis of demographic indicators, significant differences were revealed depending on the level of the studied territories. At the macro level, on both sides of the Russian-Kazakh border, there is generally a similar demographic situation both in its orientation and in the relative values of the main demographic indicators. At the meso level, there is a multidirectional dynamics of regional indicators. The leaders of population growth are mainly resource-producing regions. The regions, in which the population has decreased most of all, are adjacent border territories, between which there is a low asymmetry of indicators and almost complete synchronicity of the ongoing processes. At the micro level, comparing cities and districts, there are significant contrasts in almost all demographic indicators. Moreover, in the Kazakh part of the border area, these differences are more significant. In general, there is the same trend throughout the border regions — the population is moving to more developed areas — from depressed rural areas to district centers and small towns, from small and medium-sized cities to large regional centers and big cities.
新边界的形成使俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦相邻的领土变成了一个新的政治和社会经济空间。这项工作的目的是根据俄罗斯-哈萨克边境地区在现代政治、经济和社会一体化条件下的领土特征,分析人口进程。利用经济和统计分析的方法,可以确定邻近边界领土上人口进程的媒介和动态。在分析1989-2021年俄哈边境地区各行政主体人口变化空间分异的基础上,将俄哈边境地区人口状况划分为从关键到最有利的6个区域群。对人口指标进行分析的结果显示,根据所研究领土的水平不同,差异很大。在宏观一级,在俄罗斯-哈萨克边界两侧,在其方向和主要人口指标的相对数值方面,人口情况一般都是相似的。在中观一级,区域指标具有多向动态。人口增长的龙头地区主要是资源型产区。人口减少最多的地区是毗邻的边界领土,这些地区之间的指数不对称程度很低,正在进行的进程几乎完全同步。在微观一级,比较城市和地区,几乎所有人口指标都有显著差异。此外,在边境地区的哈萨克部分,这些差异更为显著。总的来说,整个边境地区都有同样的趋势- -人口正在向较发达地区迁移- -从贫困的农村地区向地区中心和小城镇迁移,从中小城市向大型区域中心和大城市迁移。
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引用次数: 0
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