This paper contains an econometric analysis of international convergence in growth allowing for the possibility of several trend breaks. The results offer further evidence against strong hypotheses of convergence but demonstrate the existence of common trends among subsets of countries. Trend growth estimates for OECD countries have fallen since the early post-war period when catch-up was strong, but nevertheless are generally higher than before the Second World War. Taking these results together with evidence from historical research, it is argued that the recent growth slowdown should not be seen as sufficient reason to reject the hypothesis of endogenous growth. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester
{"title":"After the Golden Age: A Long-Run Perspective on Growth Rates That Speeded Up, Slowed Down and Still Differ","authors":"T. Mills, N. Crafts","doi":"10.1111/1467-9957.00182","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00182","url":null,"abstract":"This paper contains an econometric analysis of international convergence in growth allowing for the possibility of several trend breaks. The results offer further evidence against strong hypotheses of convergence but demonstrate the existence of common trends among subsets of countries. Trend growth estimates for OECD countries have fallen since the early post-war period when catch-up was strong, but nevertheless are generally higher than before the Second World War. Taking these results together with evidence from historical research, it is argued that the recent growth slowdown should not be seen as sufficient reason to reject the hypothesis of endogenous growth. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"190 1","pages":"68-91"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79758977","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Data on the net sources of finance for France are used to argue that the French financial system was never an economie d'endettement, and to question the idea that France has converged on the Anglo-Saxon model under the impact of financial innovation and deregulation since the early 1980s. These data and additional qualitative information suggest that in the French financial system firms and their managers have more autonomy and more control over the allocation of financial resources than their counterparts in the Anglo-Saxon countries or Japan, and the French system should not therefore be seen as a mere "halfway-house" between these two polar types. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester
{"title":"A Characterization of the French Financial System","authors":"D. Cobham, Jeanne Serre","doi":"10.1111/1467-9957.00181","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00181","url":null,"abstract":"Data on the net sources of finance for France are used to argue that the French financial system was never an economie d'endettement, and to question the idea that France has converged on the Anglo-Saxon model under the impact of financial innovation and deregulation since the early 1980s. These data and additional qualitative information suggest that in the French financial system firms and their managers have more autonomy and more control over the allocation of financial resources than their counterparts in the Anglo-Saxon countries or Japan, and the French system should not therefore be seen as a mere \"halfway-house\" between these two polar types. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"22 1","pages":"44-67"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80728209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A New Keynesian model is used to derive a relationship between current and expected future inflation taking into account future inflationary pressure. This relationship is employed to examine inflationary dynamics resulting from real disturbances to the economy. Positive current inflationary pressure can be associated with either rising or falling inflation--a phenomenon which has received little attention to date. A data-based model of the UK is used to provide further evidence on the nature of the response of inflation to real disturbances and to quantify the importance of inertia in goods and labour markets. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester
{"title":"Inflation Dynamics in a New Keynesian Model","authors":"Jonathan Ireland, S. Wren‐Lewis","doi":"10.1111/1467-9957.00183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00183","url":null,"abstract":"A New Keynesian model is used to derive a relationship between current and expected future inflation taking into account future inflationary pressure. This relationship is employed to examine inflationary dynamics resulting from real disturbances to the economy. Positive current inflationary pressure can be associated with either rising or falling inflation--a phenomenon which has received little attention to date. A data-based model of the UK is used to provide further evidence on the nature of the response of inflation to real disturbances and to quantify the importance of inertia in goods and labour markets. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"28 1","pages":"92-112"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76188534","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
An explicitly specified macro model of exchange rate determination is integrated with a model of trade account hysteresis. In this macro model, flow imbalances in the trade account must be matched by equilibrating stocks of imperfectly substitutable assets, generating a stock-flow consistent determination of the exchange rate. In this paper, changes in the real exchange rate induce firms to enter particular markets for internationally traded goods, which in turn affects the trade balance. When there are sunk costs associated with this entry, returning the real exchange rate to its initial state may not induce those firms to exit the markets that they have entered. This causes trade account hysteresis. Since the real exchange rate is in part determined by the trade balance, trade account hysteresis feeds through to give exchange rate hysteresis. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester
{"title":"Exchange Rate Hysteresis from Trade Account Interaction","authors":"W. McCausland","doi":"10.1111/1467-9957.00184","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00184","url":null,"abstract":"An explicitly specified macro model of exchange rate determination is integrated with a model of trade account hysteresis. In this macro model, flow imbalances in the trade account must be matched by equilibrating stocks of imperfectly substitutable assets, generating a stock-flow consistent determination of the exchange rate. In this paper, changes in the real exchange rate induce firms to enter particular markets for internationally traded goods, which in turn affects the trade balance. When there are sunk costs associated with this entry, returning the real exchange rate to its initial state may not induce those firms to exit the markets that they have entered. This causes trade account hysteresis. Since the real exchange rate is in part determined by the trade balance, trade account hysteresis feeds through to give exchange rate hysteresis. Copyright 2000 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"130 1","pages":"113-131"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2000-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76411715","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper we examine tenure decisions of public sector tenants following the Housing Act of 1980 which gave tenants the right to buy their property and a substantial discount on the purchase price. Tenure choice is found to be determined by the household budget constraint, life-cycle characteristics and the quality of both the accommodation and the match between the household and the property, and is in many respects comparable with tenure choice in the private sector. As such, tenure transfers under the "right to buy" initiative are efficient, undertaken by public sector tenants on the margin of owner-occupation. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester
{"title":"Owner-Occupation at the Margin?: Tenure Choice among Public Sector Tenants since 1980","authors":"R. Mcnabb, V. Wass","doi":"10.1111/1467-9957.00174","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00174","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we examine tenure decisions of public sector tenants following the Housing Act of 1980 which gave tenants the right to buy their property and a substantial discount on the purchase price. Tenure choice is found to be determined by the household budget constraint, life-cycle characteristics and the quality of both the accommodation and the match between the household and the property, and is in many respects comparable with tenure choice in the private sector. As such, tenure transfers under the \"right to buy\" initiative are efficient, undertaken by public sector tenants on the margin of owner-occupation. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"5 1","pages":"661-683"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81311571","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The long-run demand for US real M1 in the post Second World War period (1954-96) is investigated. The empirical investigation is conducted by means of Johansen multivariate cointegration tests and error correction models. Results show that a stationary long-run M1 demand function is only found when the interest rate volatility or the inflation rate volatility is included in the function. The conditional variance estimate from the GARCH(1, 1) model is used as volatility in the empirical work. Results from the error correction models indicate causality between real M1 and its determinants, including interest rate (and inflation rate) volatility. A significant presence of interest rate volatility in the money demand function may affect economic performance and monetary policy. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester
{"title":"Does Interest Rate Volatility Affect the US M1 Demand Function? Evidence from Cointegration","authors":"Taufiq Choudhry","doi":"10.1111/1467-9957.00172","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00172","url":null,"abstract":"The long-run demand for US real M1 in the post Second World War period (1954-96) is investigated. The empirical investigation is conducted by means of Johansen multivariate cointegration tests and error correction models. Results show that a stationary long-run M1 demand function is only found when the interest rate volatility or the inflation rate volatility is included in the function. The conditional variance estimate from the GARCH(1, 1) model is used as volatility in the empirical work. Results from the error correction models indicate causality between real M1 and its determinants, including interest rate (and inflation rate) volatility. A significant presence of interest rate volatility in the money demand function may affect economic performance and monetary policy. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"62 1","pages":"621-648"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88527840","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Evidence suggests that stock markets in industrialized economies are increasingly integrated with the presence of common trends amongst national stock market indices. This implies that in the long run there is little gain from diversifying portfolios internationally. We investigate the existence of common trends in the increasingly important emerging equity markets of the Latin American and Asia-Pacific regions. While we find evidence of common trends, we argue that this in itself does not rule out long-run benefits to diversification. Examination of the composition of the common trends reveals that some countries do not enter that region's common trend and returns in some countries do not react to movements in the common trend, a result that generalizes to the inclusion of both the USA and the UK. Thus, even though common trends are detected, their impact is very limited and therefore emerging equity markets offer benefits in terms of diversification, even in the long run. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester
{"title":"Common stochastic trends in emerging equity markets","authors":"I. Garrett, S. Spyrou","doi":"10.1111/1467-9957.00173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00173","url":null,"abstract":"Evidence suggests that stock markets in industrialized economies are increasingly integrated with the presence of common trends amongst national stock market indices. This implies that in the long run there is little gain from diversifying portfolios internationally. We investigate the existence of common trends in the increasingly important emerging equity markets of the Latin American and Asia-Pacific regions. While we find evidence of common trends, we argue that this in itself does not rule out long-run benefits to diversification. Examination of the composition of the common trends reveals that some countries do not enter that region's common trend and returns in some countries do not react to movements in the common trend, a result that generalizes to the inclusion of both the USA and the UK. Thus, even though common trends are detected, their impact is very limited and therefore emerging equity markets offer benefits in terms of diversification, even in the long run. Copyright 1999 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"41 2 1","pages":"649-660"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1999-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78218944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, electoral and partisan effects in inflation are identified for eighteen OECD countries via regression analysis, building on the work of A. Alesina, G. Cohen, and N. Roubini. The correlation of the size of these effects across countries with the level of central bank independence is investigated; the results suggest a negative correlation. Copyright 1998 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester
{"title":"Does Central Bank Independence Smooth the Political Business Cycle in Inflation? Some OECD Evidence","authors":"K. Hadri, Ben Lockwood, John Maloney","doi":"10.1111/1467-9957.00113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00113","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, electoral and partisan effects in inflation are identified for eighteen OECD countries via regression analysis, building on the work of A. Alesina, G. Cohen, and N. Roubini. The correlation of the size of these effects across countries with the level of central bank independence is investigated; the results suggest a negative correlation. Copyright 1998 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"350 1","pages":"377-395"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73938530","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Classical economists developed a surprisingly sophisticated analysis of money supply variations that, anticipating the main features of contemporary theory, emphasizes the role of information in the transmission mechanism. Drawing on the classical contributions, this paper outlines a general approach to monetary policy, treating information as a scarce commodity allocated optimally by rational agents. Copyright 1998 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester
{"title":"Expectations and Monetary Policy: A Historical Perspective","authors":"F. Cesarano","doi":"10.1111/1467-9957.00116","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00116","url":null,"abstract":"Classical economists developed a surprisingly sophisticated analysis of money supply variations that, anticipating the main features of contemporary theory, emphasizes the role of information in the transmission mechanism. Drawing on the classical contributions, this paper outlines a general approach to monetary policy, treating information as a scarce commodity allocated optimally by rational agents. Copyright 1998 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"22 1","pages":"439-452"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91185399","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Macroeconomic theory suggests that the choice of exchange rate (or, equivalently, monetary) regime is affected by the incidence of real or monetary shocks. Anecdotally, the Bretton Woods period in world economic history is thought to have been characterized by nominal, rather than real, shocks. This paper examines this proposition and finds some evidence for it. A reduced form equation for aggregate output supply is estimated in a cointegrating framework. The equilibrium error is identified as the conditional variance. Despite the increase in the unconditional variance of output, there is no evidence for a corresponding shift in the variance of output once proper account has been taken of supply side changes. Copyright 1998 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester
{"title":"The Variance of UK GDP: Reduced Form Estimates under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rate Regimes","authors":"Seungmook Choi, S. Price","doi":"10.1111/1467-9957.00119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9957.00119","url":null,"abstract":"Macroeconomic theory suggests that the choice of exchange rate (or, equivalently, monetary) regime is affected by the incidence of real or monetary shocks. Anecdotally, the Bretton Woods period in world economic history is thought to have been characterized by nominal, rather than real, shocks. This paper examines this proposition and finds some evidence for it. A reduced form equation for aggregate output supply is estimated in a cointegrating framework. The equilibrium error is identified as the conditional variance. Despite the increase in the unconditional variance of output, there is no evidence for a corresponding shift in the variance of output once proper account has been taken of supply side changes. Copyright 1998 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester","PeriodicalId":83172,"journal":{"name":"The Manchester school of economic and social studies","volume":"62 1","pages":"490-506"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1998-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76825566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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