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The World Sugar Market--Government Intervention and Multilateral Policy Reform 世界食糖市场——政府干预与多边政策改革
Pub Date : 1990-01-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.278353
R. Lord, R. D. Barry
Extensive government intervention in sugar markets significantly affects sugar production, consumption, and trade. Many countries provide support for sugar producers, placing the cost on consumers and/or taxpayers. A trade liberalization scenario is analyzed in which only the industrial market economies are assumed to liberalize their agriculture. The analysis shows that compared with actual 1986-88 levels, liberalized levels of sugar production in 1986-88 would have been lower in the industrial market economies, and higher in the less -developed countries. Liberalization would have led to an increase in the world sugar price of 10-30 percent from its 1975-89 longrun average level, and would have reduced world price variability while increasing domestic price variability in many industrial market economies. Sugar production in the United States would have been lower, and consumption slightly higher. World sugar trade patterns would have shifted dramatically, but overall trade volume would have increased only marginally. Sugar substitutes, primarily high fructose starch syrups, would have increased market share, mainly in a few industrial market economies.
政府对食糖市场的广泛干预严重影响了食糖的生产、消费和贸易。许多国家为食糖生产商提供支持,将成本转嫁给消费者和/或纳税人。本文分析了一种贸易自由化的情景,在这种情景中,只有工业市场经济被假定会使其农业自由化。分析表明,与1986-88年的实际水平相比,工业市场经济国家1986-88年自由化的糖生产水平较低,而较不发达国家则较高。自由化将导致世界食糖价格从1975- 1989年的长期平均水平上涨10- 30%,并将减少世界价格的波动性,同时增加许多工业市场经济体国内价格的波动性。美国的糖产量会更低,消费量会略高。世界食糖贸易格局将发生巨大变化,但总贸易量只会略微增加。糖替代品,主要是高果糖淀粉糖浆,将增加市场份额,主要是在少数工业市场经济中。
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引用次数: 8
The effects of the Common Agricultural Policy on the European Community wheat-washing industry and grain trade. 共同农业政策对欧共体洗麦业和粮食贸易的影响。
Pub Date : 1990-01-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.278287
D. Leuck
The wheat-washing industry in the European Community (EC) increased the separation of wheat flour into vital wheat gluten and wheat starch from 360,000 tons (wheat equivalent) in 1980 to over 1 million tons in 1985. This expansion was facilitated by trends in relative grain prices in the EC, which are insulated from movements in world prices by a variable levy system, and by the use of better fractionation techniques. The expansion of the wheat-washing industry was responsible for most of the 2-million-ton decline in EC hard wheat imports between 1980 and 1985, and reduced EC wheat exports and corn imports by about 3.3 and 0.5 million tons. EC hard wheat imports could be totally eliminated and EC wheat exports could be further reduced by as much as 4.9 million tons annually by the mid-1990's, if EC agricultural policies favor the further expansion of this industry. In the absence of a further expansion of the EC wheat-washing industry, however, these latter trade effects for wheat would not occur and EC corn imports would increase by an additional 2 million tons.
欧共体(EC)的小麦洗涤工业将小麦粉分离为至关重要的小麦面筋和小麦淀粉,从1980年的36万吨(小麦当量)增加到1985年的100多万吨。欧共体相对粮食价格的趋势促进了这一扩大,这种趋势由于可变的征税制度而不受世界价格变动的影响,并且由于采用了更好的分选技术。1980年至1985年期间,欧共体硬小麦进口量下降了200万吨,其中小麦洗涤工业的扩大是主要原因,欧共体小麦出口量和玉米进口量分别减少了330万吨和50万吨。如果欧共体的农业政策有利于该产业的进一步扩大,到20世纪90年代中期,欧共体硬小麦进口可以完全消除,欧共体小麦出口每年可进一步减少490万吨。然而,如果欧共体小麦洗涤工业不进一步扩大,后一种小麦贸易影响就不会发生,欧共体玉米进口将再增加200万吨。
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引用次数: 5
A SHORT HISTORY OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS 美国农业贸易谈判简史
Pub Date : 1989-01-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.278842
J. M. Porter, D. Bowers
The U.S. proposal to eliminate domestic farm subsidies worldwide, presented to the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade negotiations in 1987, is a significant break with past policies. Trade liberalization has been a U.S. goal since the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934, but, until recently, the United States and many other nations have acted to preserve their own farm subsidies. In the 1980's, slower growth in international farm trade, the threat of trade wars, and higher subsidy costs have led to a reassessment of domestic as well as export subsidies and have created a climate favorable to eliminating subsidies.
美国在1987年向关税及贸易总协定乌拉圭回合谈判提出的取消全球国内农业补贴的建议,是对过去政策的重大突破。自1934年《互惠贸易协定法》(Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act)以来,贸易自由化一直是美国的目标,但直到最近,美国和许多其他国家一直采取行动,保留自己的农业补贴。在20世纪80年代,国际农产品贸易增长放缓,贸易战争的威胁和更高的补贴成本导致了对国内和出口补贴的重新评估,并创造了有利于消除补贴的环境。
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引用次数: 10
AIDS in Africa: a political overview. 艾滋病在非洲:政治概述。
Pub Date : 1989-01-01
R A Fredland
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引用次数: 0
JOINT PRODUCTS IN THE SWOPSIM MODELING FRAMEWORK 在swopsim框架下联合产品建模
Pub Date : 1988-01-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.278136
S. Haley
A consideration of joint products is important in the trade modeling currently underway at the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Joint products are especially important in the modeling of the dairy and oilseed sectors. This report explains how recent work in multioutput production theory can be used to model these sectors in the SWOPSIM modeling framework. The advantage of applying theory is improved consistency of model parameter values for evaluating trade liberalization scenarios.
在美国农业部经济研究局目前正在进行的贸易模型中,考虑联合产品是很重要的。联合产品在乳制品和油籽部门的建模中尤为重要。本报告解释了如何在SWOPSIM建模框架中使用多产出生产理论的最新工作来对这些部门进行建模。应用理论的优点是提高了评估贸易自由化情景的模型参数值的一致性。
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引用次数: 2
REVEALED COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE FOR WHEAT 小麦的显性竞争优势
Pub Date : 1987-01-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.277915
T. Vollrath
/^% ,., new indicator of trade performance, called "revealed competitive advantage" (RCA), is used to examine the changing nature of wheat competitiveness and noncompetitiveness. Time series RCA measures for 5 wheat-exporting countries and 20 wheat-importing countries illustrate the dynamics of the international market to the year 2000. RCA comparisons for different agricultural commodities suggest that the U.S. wheat subsector is more internationally competitive than the U.S. agricultural sector as a whole. However, the U.S. wheat subsector is not performing as well as the oilseed and coarse grain subsectors. Three-fourths of the significant wheat-importing countries display a growing competitive disadvantage for wheat, providing evidence of increased specialization in world production.
/ ^ %。本文采用名为“显性竞争优势”(RCA)的贸易绩效新指标来考察小麦竞争力和非竞争力性质的变化。5个小麦出口国和20个小麦进口国的时间序列RCA措施说明了到2000年国际市场的动态。对不同农产品的RCA比较表明,美国小麦子部门比美国整个农业部门更具国际竞争力。然而,美国小麦细分市场的表现不如油籽和粗粮细分市场。四分之三的主要小麦进口国在小麦方面表现出日益严重的竞争劣势,这证明了世界生产专业化程度的提高。
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引用次数: 20
The magnitude and costs of groundwater contamination from agricultural chemicals: a national perspective 农业化学品污染地下水的规模和成本:国家视角
Pub Date : 1987-01-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.277938
E. Nielsen, Linda K. Lee
Evidence is mounting that agricultural pesticide and fertilizer applications are causing groundwater contamination in some parts of the United States. A synthesis of national data has enabled researchers to identify regions potentially affected by contamination from pesticides and fertilizers and to estimate the number of people in these regions who rely on groundwater for their drinking water needs. The study found that pesticides and nitrates from fertilizers do not necessarily occur together in potentially contaminated regions. Monitoring and remedial costs, which would fall most heavily on rural people dependent on private wells, could be substantial.
越来越多的证据表明,农业农药和化肥的使用正在导致美国部分地区的地下水污染。国家数据的综合使研究人员能够确定可能受到农药和化肥污染影响的地区,并估计这些地区依赖地下水满足其饮用水需求的人数。研究发现,农药和化肥中的硝酸盐不一定同时出现在潜在污染地区。监测和补救的成本可能是巨大的,而这些成本大部分落在依赖私人水井的农村人口身上。
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引用次数: 168
The Value Of The Dollar And Competitiveness Of U.S. Wheat Exports: Further Evidence 美元价值与美国小麦出口竞争力:进一步证据
Pub Date : 1986-01-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.277893
S. Haley, B. Krissoff
This dynamic, econometric approach extends a 1986 report that examined the effect of exchange rates, U.S. agricultural policy, and world income growth on U.S. wheat exports. This report confirms earlier results indicating that U.S. wheat exports are strongly influenced by changes in competitors' exchange rates and target prices, and little by changes in world income. An important difference from earlier findings is the longer time period over which exchange rate changes affect wheat exports. Export levels may not be fully affected by exchange rate changes until 4 years after the initial exchange rate change.
这种动态的计量经济学方法扩展了1986年的一份报告,该报告研究了汇率、美国农业政策和世界收入增长对美国小麦出口的影响。这份报告证实了先前的结果,即美国小麦出口受到竞争对手汇率和目标价格变化的强烈影响,而不受世界收入变化的影响。与早期研究结果的一个重要区别是,汇率变化影响小麦出口的时间更长。出口水平可能不会完全受到汇率变化的影响,直到首次汇率变化后4年。
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引用次数: 6
CONSUMER DEMAND FOR EGGS AND MARKET IMPLICATIONS 消费者对鸡蛋的需求和市场影响
Pub Date : 1985-01-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.277809
J. Blaylock, C. Burbee
Domestic population growth and greater use of processed eggs over the past three decades offset the decline in per-capita shell egg use and left total egg consumption for domestic food purposes averaging about 5 billion dozen a year. This paper analyzes effects of prices, income, and household characteristics on the demand for eggs. Evidence from a complete demand system indicates that eggs are more price inelastic than either red meat or poultry. The own-price elasticity for eggs was found to be -0.1429. The income elasticity for eggs, derived from an analysis of the 1977-78 USDA Nationwide Food Consumption Survey, was estimated to be approximately -0.05. Region of household residence, season, race, age, and household size also influence egg consumption and expenditures.
过去三十年来,国内人口的增长和加工鸡蛋使用量的增加抵消了人均壳蛋使用量的下降,使国内食用鸡蛋的总消费量平均每年约为50亿打。本文分析了价格、收入和家庭特征对鸡蛋需求的影响。来自完整需求系统的证据表明,鸡蛋比红肉或家禽更具价格弹性。鸡蛋的自身价格弹性为-0.1429。根据1977-78年美国农业部全国食品消费调查的分析,鸡蛋的收入弹性估计约为-0.05。家庭居住地区、季节、种族、年龄和家庭规模也会影响鸡蛋的消费和支出。
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引用次数: 5
A RISK PROFILE OF LENDERS' FARM LOAN PORTFOLIOS 贷款人农业贷款组合的风险概况
Pub Date : 1985-01-01 DOI: 10.22004/AG.ECON.277643
Stephen C. Gabriel, Richard N. Peterson, Vernon B. Starr
Farm lenders will face difficult credit problems into at least the intermediate future. As much as 25 to 40 percent of the outstanding debt held by banks and production credit associations was owed by farmers with debt/asset ratios of 60 percent or more on January 1, 1980, when farmland values were near peak levels. Although the Farmers Home Administration held the highest percent of farm loans owed by high leverage farmers, production credit associations, merchants, and commercial banks had a relatively large percentage of their farm loans directed at high leverage farmers. The Delta and Southeastern States had the highest percentage of farm debt owed by highly leveraged farmers. Given the general deterioration of farmland values in many regions of the country since 1980, the situation today is likely much worse, with the Delta and Southeastern States remaining in the most critical condition
至少在短期内,农业贷款机构将面临困难的信贷问题。1980年1月1日,当农田价值接近峰值时,银行和生产信贷协会持有的未偿债务中,有多达25%至40%是由债务/资产比率达到60%或更高的农民欠下的。尽管农民家庭管理局持有高杠杆农民所欠农业贷款的比例最高,但生产信贷协会、商人和商业银行的农业贷款中,高杠杆农民所占的比例相对较大。三角洲和东南部各州的高杠杆农民所欠的农业债务比例最高。鉴于1980年以来该国许多地区的农田价值普遍恶化,今天的情况可能更糟,三角洲和东南部各州仍处于最危急的状态
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Field staff reports
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