"Under certain simplifying assumptions an inflated geometric distribution has been proposed to study the trends in rural out-migration at micro-level. The distribution involves two parameters. A procedure for finding the estimates of parameters is outlined. Asymptotic expressions for variances and covariances of the estimates are obtained." An example is provided using 1978 survey data concerning 3,514 households near Varanasi, India.
The author presents population projections for Bangladesh using data from the 1981 census, U.N. sources, and other official and nonofficial sources. "Confidence intervals for year 1986 and year 2001 populations for Bangladesh are developed. Rural-urban shifts in population are analyzed through Markov chains, and reveal a significant projected redistribution to urban areas. A study is presented of the actuarial cost of a potential social security program designed to meet the financial needs of an increasing set of urban dwellers.... Aggregate projected contributions and benefits for the years 1975, 2005, 2015, and 2025 illustrate the possible program."
"The present paper is an attempt to introduce a simple mathematical model to describe the age pattern of proportion never married women. The underlying model was found to give fairly close fit to an observed set of data of some 17 WFS [World Fertility Survey] countries. A mathematical formulation was then suggested in terms of the parameters in the model to estimate the mean age at first marriage. The mean ages obtained under the approach agreed quite closely with those obtained by Hajnal's method. The agreement between the estimates of ever married proportions obtained by the suggested model and...Coale's nuptiality model appeared also to be satisfactory."
The author examines the impact on contraceptive and reproductive behavior of a social program designed to teach trade skills and family planning to women in rural Bangladesh. The focus is on "whether a social program that is designed to use a particular group as catalysts brings about any change in [the] contraceptive and reproductive behaviour of the community that is indirectly exposed to the program." A sample of 625 women indirectly exposed to the program and 312 women from non-program, control villages were interviewed; baseline data are from the 1976 Bangladesh Fertility Survey. It is found that "the indirectly exposed and unexposed women are very similar in their contraceptive and reproductive behaviour. The impact of the directly exposed women (trained women) in family planning was trivial even after three years of program operation. Socio-economic and demographic characteristics of both the groups are also similar....The current use among the indirectly exposed women was only 12% as compared to 10% for the unexposed women."
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