The Malayan economic review : the journal of the Economic Society of Singapore, the Department of Economics and Statistics and the Economic Research Centre of the University of Singapore最新文献
The measurement of the quality of research has reached nowadays an increasing interest not only for scientific reasons but also for the critical problem of researchers' ranking, due to the lack of grant assignments. The most commonly used approach is based on the so-called $h$-index, even if the current literature debated a lot about its pros and cons. This paper, after a brief review of the $h$-index and of alternative models, focuses on the characterization and the implementation of a modified scoring rule approach by means of a fuzzy inference system a l� Sugeno.
{"title":"A Fuzzy-Based Scoring Rule for Author Ranking","authors":"M. Cardin, M. Corazza, S. Funari, S. Giove","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1932135","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1932135","url":null,"abstract":"The measurement of the quality of research has reached nowadays an increasing interest not only for scientific reasons but also for the critical problem of researchers' ranking, due to the lack of grant assignments. The most commonly used approach is based on the so-called $h$-index, even if the current literature debated a lot about its pros and cons. This paper, after a brief review of the $h$-index and of alternative models, focuses on the characterization and the implementation of a modified scoring rule approach by means of a fuzzy inference system a l� Sugeno.","PeriodicalId":85755,"journal":{"name":"The Malayan economic review : the journal of the Economic Society of Singapore, the Department of Economics and Statistics and the Economic Research Centre of the University of Singapore","volume":"54 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72740093","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Monica Billio, R. Casarin, F. Ravazzolo, H. V. Dijk
Using a Bayesian framework this paper provides a multivariate combination approach to prediction based on a distributional state space representation of predictive densities from alternative models. In the proposed approach the model set can be incomplete. Several multivariate time-varying combination strategies are introduced. In particular, a weight dynamics driven by the past performance of the predictive densities is considered and the use of learning mechanisms. The approach is assessed using statistical and utility-based performance measures for evaluating density forecasts of US macroeconomic time series and of surveys of stock market prices.
{"title":"Combining Predictive Densities Using Bayesian Filtering with Applications to US Economic Data","authors":"Monica Billio, R. Casarin, F. Ravazzolo, H. V. Dijk","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2118577","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2118577","url":null,"abstract":"Using a Bayesian framework this paper provides a multivariate combination approach to prediction based on a distributional state space representation of predictive densities from alternative models. In the proposed approach the model set can be incomplete. Several multivariate time-varying combination strategies are introduced. In particular, a weight dynamics driven by the past performance of the predictive densities is considered and the use of learning mechanisms. The approach is assessed using statistical and utility-based performance measures for evaluating density forecasts of US macroeconomic time series and of surveys of stock market prices.","PeriodicalId":85755,"journal":{"name":"The Malayan economic review : the journal of the Economic Society of Singapore, the Department of Economics and Statistics and the Economic Research Centre of the University of Singapore","volume":"68 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-12-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85808856","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Virtual water trade refers to the implicit content of water in the production of goods and services. When trade is undertaken, there is an implicit exchange of water. Furthermore, when water gets scarce, water intensive goods become more expensive to produce and the economy compensates through higher water imports.This paper is about applying the concept of virtual water to the problem of future water scarcity in the Mediterranean area, also induced by the climate change. The aim is assessing to what extent water trade is a viable adaptation option to the problem of water scarcity. To this end, a computable general equilibrium model is extended with satellite data on sectoral water consumption, and used to assess future scenarios of water availability.It is found that virtual trade may curb the negative effect of water scarcity, yet the consequences in terms of income and welfare remain quite significant, especially for some regions.
{"title":"Water Scarcity and Virtual Water Trade in the Mediterranean","authors":"R. Roson, M. Sartori","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1594709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1594709","url":null,"abstract":"Virtual water trade refers to the implicit content of water in the production of goods and services. When trade is undertaken, there is an implicit exchange of water. Furthermore, when water gets scarce, water intensive goods become more expensive to produce and the economy compensates through higher water imports.This paper is about applying the concept of virtual water to the problem of future water scarcity in the Mediterranean area, also induced by the climate change. The aim is assessing to what extent water trade is a viable adaptation option to the problem of water scarcity. To this end, a computable general equilibrium model is extended with satellite data on sectoral water consumption, and used to assess future scenarios of water availability.It is found that virtual trade may curb the negative effect of water scarcity, yet the consequences in terms of income and welfare remain quite significant, especially for some regions.","PeriodicalId":85755,"journal":{"name":"The Malayan economic review : the journal of the Economic Society of Singapore, the Department of Economics and Statistics and the Economic Research Centre of the University of Singapore","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-04-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75094670","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Simple growth accounting shows that the negative scale effect of economic growth on the environment can be compensated by a composition effect, increasing the weight of less polluting productions, and by a technical progress favorable to the environment, in order to make possible a sustainable growth path. To achieve this result a combination of environmental regulation and innovation policy is required. Revenues from economic instruments of environmental regulation can be earmarked to environmental friendly innovations; difficulties arise because of the trade off with using those revenues as redistributive means to compensate the usually regressive nature of environmental regulation. The �case study� of the energy and climate program of President Obama is an example of the complexity of the challenge to move towards the target of a �green economy�. A complementary essential role of social environmental responsibility both of consumers and firms is required.
{"title":"Green Economy: Great Expectation or Big Illusion?","authors":"I. Musu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1544223","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1544223","url":null,"abstract":"Simple growth accounting shows that the negative scale effect of economic growth on the environment can be compensated by a composition effect, increasing the weight of less polluting productions, and by a technical progress favorable to the environment, in order to make possible a sustainable growth path. To achieve this result a combination of environmental regulation and innovation policy is required. Revenues from economic instruments of environmental regulation can be earmarked to environmental friendly innovations; difficulties arise because of the trade off with using those revenues as redistributive means to compensate the usually regressive nature of environmental regulation. The �case study� of the energy and climate program of President Obama is an example of the complexity of the challenge to move towards the target of a �green economy�. A complementary essential role of social environmental responsibility both of consumers and firms is required.","PeriodicalId":85755,"journal":{"name":"The Malayan economic review : the journal of the Economic Society of Singapore, the Department of Economics and Statistics and the Economic Research Centre of the University of Singapore","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79603789","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the likely direction of real interest rates in the Euro area and the United States from April 2009 on. It is argued that the crisis that began in 2007 and the ensuing recession changed the descending trend in real interest rates which started a long time ago. If real interest rates were to rise too much, private and public finances, housing markets and stock markets would suffer particularly in the countries where the past credit binge and the crisis response has made debts mount, thus prolonging the current crisis. Economic theory should help shed light on the likely future direction of long-term real interest rates. In the paper, growth models are briefly discussed and shown to offer disparate predictions about the level of real interest rates in a growing economy and little practical guidance. Monetary theories, i.e. theories explicitly focused on the role of interest rates in balancing supply and demand in the single markets of the economy, make reference to some normal or natural level of real interest rate but obviously suffer from the difficulties of estimating such normal or natural levels both in general and particularly in a unusually dynamic and uncertain situation such as the current one. The more pragmatic approach, consisting in the assessment of the relevant single components of the long-term real nominal interest rate over the cycle, points to the risks of a surge in the risk premium as well as in expected short-term real interest rates and thus to a prolongation of the current economic contraction.
{"title":"Real Interest Rates and the Crisis: Where are the Rates Headed?","authors":"D. Martellato","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1457603","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1457603","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the likely direction of real interest rates in the Euro area and the United States from April 2009 on. It is argued that the crisis that began in 2007 and the ensuing recession changed the descending trend in real interest rates which started a long time ago. If real interest rates were to rise too much, private and public finances, housing markets and stock markets would suffer particularly in the countries where the past credit binge and the crisis response has made debts mount, thus prolonging the current crisis. Economic theory should help shed light on the likely future direction of long-term real interest rates. In the paper, growth models are briefly discussed and shown to offer disparate predictions about the level of real interest rates in a growing economy and little practical guidance. Monetary theories, i.e. theories explicitly focused on the role of interest rates in balancing supply and demand in the single markets of the economy, make reference to some normal or natural level of real interest rate but obviously suffer from the difficulties of estimating such normal or natural levels both in general and particularly in a unusually dynamic and uncertain situation such as the current one. The more pragmatic approach, consisting in the assessment of the relevant single components of the long-term real nominal interest rate over the cycle, points to the risks of a surge in the risk premium as well as in expected short-term real interest rates and thus to a prolongation of the current economic contraction.","PeriodicalId":85755,"journal":{"name":"The Malayan economic review : the journal of the Economic Society of Singapore, the Department of Economics and Statistics and the Economic Research Centre of the University of Singapore","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-08-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72877709","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper provides new evidence on the relative effectiveness of formal monetary institutions in achieving price stability. The institutions considered are, specifically, central bank independence (CBI), inflation targeting (IT), currency boards (CB) and monetary unions (MU). An empirical investigation is conducted to investigate their relative impacts on the average inflation performance, considering that often countries employ a combination of these institutional mechanisms. The evidence indicates that both IT and CB regimes have been associated with significantly lower rates of inflation during the past two decades, whereas CBI and MU do not appear significant in explaining low inflation rates.
{"title":"Performance of Monetary Institutions: Comparative Evidence","authors":"B. Neyapti","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1407453","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1407453","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides new evidence on the relative effectiveness of formal monetary institutions in achieving price stability. The institutions considered are, specifically, central bank independence (CBI), inflation targeting (IT), currency boards (CB) and monetary unions (MU). An empirical investigation is conducted to investigate their relative impacts on the average inflation performance, considering that often countries employ a combination of these institutional mechanisms. The evidence indicates that both IT and CB regimes have been associated with significantly lower rates of inflation during the past two decades, whereas CBI and MU do not appear significant in explaining low inflation rates.","PeriodicalId":85755,"journal":{"name":"The Malayan economic review : the journal of the Economic Society of Singapore, the Department of Economics and Statistics and the Economic Research Centre of the University of Singapore","volume":"95 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-05-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81818956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The paper investigates the change in strategy of the Benetton Group, since the mid nineties, in face of the severe intensive competition in the international fashion market. New competitors, in particular the European brands Zara, Mango and H&M, have challenged the Benetton position in the Italian and the European clothing market and have pushed the Group towards cost reduction through globalization of his suppliers. Benetton is a vertically integrated producer that controls (in different ways) the whole value chain from textile raw materials to the sales to the consumers. Till 2000 Benetton made part of its production in its own factories and through a wide network of domestic sub-contractors, mainly specialized in sewing. Now Benetton has drastically moved to a new strategy, abandoning Italy and organizing production around a dual supply chain: close locations (East Europe and North Africa) for quick production and far away locations (Asia) for more standardised products. The paper discusses also the redefinition of competences for the Treviso clothing district, where Benetton traditional sub-contractors have been in few years, drastically curtailed. Benetton restructuring marks the transition to a new network of competences between agents in the district.
{"title":"A Global Network and its Local Ties: Restructuring of the Benetton Group","authors":"P. Crestanello, G. Tattara","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1397103","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1397103","url":null,"abstract":"The paper investigates the change in strategy of the Benetton Group, since the mid nineties, in face of the severe intensive competition in the international fashion market. New competitors, in particular the European brands Zara, Mango and H&M, have challenged the Benetton position in the Italian and the European clothing market and have pushed the Group towards cost reduction through globalization of his suppliers. Benetton is a vertically integrated producer that controls (in different ways) the whole value chain from textile raw materials to the sales to the consumers. Till 2000 Benetton made part of its production in its own factories and through a wide network of domestic sub-contractors, mainly specialized in sewing. Now Benetton has drastically moved to a new strategy, abandoning Italy and organizing production around a dual supply chain: close locations (East Europe and North Africa) for quick production and far away locations (Asia) for more standardised products. The paper discusses also the redefinition of competences for the Treviso clothing district, where Benetton traditional sub-contractors have been in few years, drastically curtailed. Benetton restructuring marks the transition to a new network of competences between agents in the district.","PeriodicalId":85755,"journal":{"name":"The Malayan economic review : the journal of the Economic Society of Singapore, the Department of Economics and Statistics and the Economic Research Centre of the University of Singapore","volume":"16 6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85472677","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The relations among child quality, family structure, and the value of the mother's time in Malaysia.","authors":"K Leppel","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":85755,"journal":{"name":"The Malayan economic review : the journal of the Economic Society of Singapore, the Department of Economics and Statistics and the Economic Research Centre of the University of Singapore","volume":"27 2","pages":"61-70"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1982-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"22006811","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Estimation of an equilibrium model for Singapore fertility.","authors":"W D O'neill, C Lim","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":85755,"journal":{"name":"The Malayan economic review : the journal of the Economic Society of Singapore, the Department of Economics and Statistics and the Economic Research Centre of the University of Singapore","volume":"25 1","pages":"19-35"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1980-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"22025622","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A note on internal migration and regional growth trends in Peninsular Malaysia, 1957-1970.","authors":"S Narayanan","doi":"","DOIUrl":"","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":85755,"journal":{"name":"The Malayan economic review : the journal of the Economic Society of Singapore, the Department of Economics and Statistics and the Economic Research Centre of the University of Singapore","volume":"23 2","pages":"53-60"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1978-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"22003760","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Malayan economic review : the journal of the Economic Society of Singapore, the Department of Economics and Statistics and the Economic Research Centre of the University of Singapore
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