Hsiao-Hui Lee, S. A. Yang, Yuxuan Zhang, Kijin Kim
{"title":"Credit Chain and Sectoral Comovement:","authors":"Hsiao-Hui Lee, S. A. Yang, Yuxuan Zhang, Kijin Kim","doi":"10.22617/wps210391-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/wps210391-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43316685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Generating Multiple Resilience Dividends from Managing Unnatural Disasters in Asia?:","authors":"R. Mechler, S. Hochrainer-Stigler","doi":"10.22617/wps190573-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/wps190573-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44007528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we test the effect of weather shocks and floods on urban social disorder for a panel of large cities in developing countries. We focus on a particular mechanism, namely the displacement of population into (large) cities. We test this hypothesis using a novel dataset on floods—distinguishing those that affected large cities directly from those that occurred outside of our sample of large cities. Floods are found to be associated with faster growth of the population in the city, and in turn with a higher likelihood (and frequency) of urban social disorder events. Our evidence suggests that the effects of floods on urban social disorder occur (mainly) through the displacement of population, and the “push” of people into large cities. Our findings have important implications for evaluating future climate change, as well as for policies regarding adaptation to climate change and disaster resilience.
{"title":"Climate, Urbanization, and Conflict:","authors":"David Castells‐Quintana, T. McDermott","doi":"10.22617/WPS190254-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/WPS190254-2","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we test the effect of weather shocks and floods on urban social disorder for a panel of large cities in developing countries. We focus on a particular mechanism, namely the displacement of population into (large) cities. We test this hypothesis using a novel dataset on floods—distinguishing those that affected large cities directly from those that occurred outside of our sample of large cities. Floods are found to be associated with faster growth of the population in the city, and in turn with a higher likelihood (and frequency) of urban social disorder events. Our evidence suggests that the effects of floods on urban social disorder occur (mainly) through the displacement of population, and the “push” of people into large cities. Our findings have important implications for evaluating future climate change, as well as for policies regarding adaptation to climate change and disaster resilience.","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45365337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This working paper was written as input for the Asian Development Outlook 2019. It reviews the literature at the intersection of disasters and migration in Asia and details the story of how disasters may affect mobility, from displacement to voluntary migration to “trapped populations.” It also provides an overview of the “migration as adaptation” literature, which shows that planned and sustained movement may help individuals weather shocks and diversify income in the face of disaster, as well as the uneven outcomes of disaster-related remittances in Asia. In addition, it gives insight into predicted impacts on mobility because of climate-related disasters and delves into the likely trends. Ultimately, it aims to show the diverse ways in which disaster-related migration may affect economic growth and social resilience in Asia.
{"title":"The Links between Climate Change, Disasters, Migration, and Social Resilience in Asia:","authors":"Kayly Ober","doi":"10.22617/WPS190231-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/WPS190231-2","url":null,"abstract":"This working paper was written as input for the Asian Development Outlook 2019. It reviews the literature at the intersection of disasters and migration in Asia and details the story of how disasters may affect mobility, from displacement to voluntary migration to “trapped populations.” It also provides an overview of the “migration as adaptation” literature, which shows that planned and sustained movement may help individuals weather shocks and diversify income in the face of disaster, as well as the uneven outcomes of disaster-related remittances in Asia. In addition, it gives insight into predicted impacts on mobility because of climate-related disasters and delves into the likely trends. Ultimately, it aims to show the diverse ways in which disaster-related migration may affect economic growth and social resilience in Asia.","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46716834","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A New Index of Globalization:","authors":"Hyeon‐seung Huh, Cyn‐Young Park","doi":"10.22617/wps190245-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/wps190245-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43613707","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the changing network of financial markets between Asian markets and those of the rest of the world during January 2003–December 2017 to capture both the direction and strength of the links between them. Because each market chooses whether to connect with emerging markets as a bridge to the wider network, there are advantages to having access to this bridge for protection during periods of financial stress. Both parties gain by overcoming the information asymmetry between emerging and global markets. We analyze networks for four key periods, capturing networks in financial markets before and after the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis. Increased connections during crisis periods are evident, as well as a general deepening of the global network. The evidence on Asian market developments suggests caution is needed on regulations proposing methods to create stable networks, because these may result in reduced opportunities for emerging markets.
{"title":"Changing Vulnerability in Asia:","authors":"Mardi Dungey, Moses Kangogo, V. Volkov","doi":"10.22617/WPS190180-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/WPS190180-2","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the changing network of financial markets between Asian markets and those of the rest of the world during January 2003–December 2017 to capture both the direction and strength of the links between them. Because each market chooses whether to connect with emerging markets as a bridge to the wider network, there are advantages to having access to this bridge for protection during periods of financial stress. Both parties gain by overcoming the information asymmetry between emerging and global markets. We analyze networks for four key periods, capturing networks in financial markets before and after the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis. Increased connections during crisis periods are evident, as well as a general deepening of the global network. The evidence on Asian market developments suggests caution is needed on regulations proposing methods to create stable networks, because these may result in reduced opportunities for emerging markets.","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49505115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We develop a framework to analyze urban water tariff setting and its welfare implications and apply it to a panel of cities in the People’s Republic of China in the 2000s. First, we find that peer cities’ water tariff levels have a significant influence on a city’s choice of tariffs. We use the peer cities’ average tariff as an instrumental variable to estimate water demand functions, which yields elasticity estimates of around –0.41 for both residential and industrial sectors. Second, estimation of cost functions reveals the supply of urban water services to be characterized by strong economies of scale with the majority of sample city–years on the downward sloping segment of marginal cost curves. More than half of the sample have residential water tariffs higher than the corresponding marginal costs while the share increases to 71% for the industrial sector. The deadweight loss calculated under first-best pricing suggests moderate welfare loss due to prices deviating from the equilibrium. Finally, we show that taking into account nonrevenue water losses justifies an efficient price higher than the equilibrium price.
{"title":"Water Tariff Setting and Its Welfare Implications:","authors":"Yi Jiang, Renz Adrian T. Calub, Xiaoting Zheng","doi":"10.22617/WPS190159-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/WPS190159-2","url":null,"abstract":"We develop a framework to analyze urban water tariff setting and its welfare implications and apply it to a panel of cities in the People’s Republic of China in the 2000s. First, we find that peer cities’ water tariff levels have a significant influence on a city’s choice of tariffs. We use the peer cities’ average tariff as an instrumental variable to estimate water demand functions, which yields elasticity estimates of around –0.41 for both residential and industrial sectors. Second, estimation of cost functions reveals the supply of urban water services to be characterized by strong economies of scale with the majority of sample city–years on the downward sloping segment of marginal cost curves. More than half of the sample have residential water tariffs higher than the corresponding marginal costs while the share increases to 71% for the industrial sector. The deadweight loss calculated under first-best pricing suggests moderate welfare loss due to prices deviating from the equilibrium. Finally, we show that taking into account nonrevenue water losses justifies an efficient price higher than the equilibrium price.","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44987054","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the effectiveness of capital account policy in terms of its ability to affect the volume and composition of capital flows, relieve pressures on real exchange rates, and foster monetary policy independence. Ten emerging Asian economies are used as case studies to assess the effectiveness of capital account policy during 2000–2015. The results suggest that some types of capital controls are effective in reducing the volume of capital flows and pressure on real exchange rates. The choice of exchange rate regime matters in terms of the effectiveness of capital controls for fostering monetary policy independence. Although some types of capital controls are effective in creating macroeconomic stability, implementing capital account policy needs to be undertaken with caution. This is because substitution or complementarity among capital controls is evident, both within and across countries in the region. It seems that strong economic fundamentals are more important than capital account policy for changing the composition of capital inflows toward more stable and long-term flows.
{"title":"Capital Account Policies in Emerging Asian Economies:","authors":"Juthathip Jongwanich","doi":"10.22617/WPS190124-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/WPS190124-2","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the effectiveness of capital account policy in terms of its ability to affect the volume and composition of capital flows, relieve pressures on real exchange rates, and foster monetary policy independence. Ten emerging Asian economies are used as case studies to assess the effectiveness of capital account policy during 2000–2015. The results suggest that some types of capital controls are effective in reducing the volume of capital flows and pressure on real exchange rates. The choice of exchange rate regime matters in terms of the effectiveness of capital controls for fostering monetary policy independence. Although some types of capital controls are effective in creating macroeconomic stability, implementing capital account policy needs to be undertaken with caution. This is because substitution or complementarity among capital controls is evident, both within and across countries in the region. It seems that strong economic fundamentals are more important than capital account policy for changing the composition of capital inflows toward more stable and long-term flows.","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47692044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the emergence of new occupations by comparing various classifications of occupations and predicting probabilities to access them given workers’ characteristics. Systematic comparisons of successive lists of National Classification of Occupations in India, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam find that most new job titles are primarily information and communication technology- and data-related positions within professional and associate professional occupational divisions. When utilizing microdata of India and Viet Nam, it was found that the emerging occupations, defined as occupation groups with new job titles, pay higher wages than none merging occupations. Further, when using logit models to predict chances of accessing emerging occupations given workers’ characteristics, the probability of success is greater for workers who are male, tertiary educated, urbanized, and employed in the service sectors. Adjusted predictions by education and sector show that access to emerging occupations is highest among tertiary-educated workers in services, and that chances of success vary greatly across different age groups.
{"title":"New Technology and Emerging Occupations","authors":"Sameer Khatiwada, M. Veloso","doi":"10.22617/WPS190087-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/WPS190087-2","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the emergence of new occupations by comparing various classifications of occupations and predicting probabilities to access them given workers’ characteristics. Systematic comparisons of successive lists of National Classification of Occupations in India, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam find that most new job titles are primarily information and communication technology- and data-related positions within professional and associate professional occupational divisions. When utilizing microdata of India and Viet Nam, it was found that the emerging occupations, defined as occupation groups with new job titles, pay higher wages than none merging occupations. Further, when using logit models to predict chances of accessing emerging occupations given workers’ characteristics, the probability of success is greater for workers who are male, tertiary educated, urbanized, and employed in the service sectors. Adjusted predictions by education and sector show that access to emerging occupations is highest among tertiary-educated workers in services, and that chances of success vary greatly across different age groups.","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49448630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper relies on recent proprietary data from the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) poor rural minority areas to examine the importance of credit constraints on internal labor migration. Specifically, a liquidity shock via the PRC’s minimum living standard assistance (MLSA) program is decomposed into its direct and indirect parts. The institutional features of the MLSA program permit an identification strategy that relies on a set of verifiable assumptions and an instrument variable framework. The results reveal that the direct effect on migration of MLSA is negative, although the net effect is positive driven by the large indirect effects, which are twice as large for ethnic minorities compared to the Han majority. Subsequent evidence further suggests that the main mechanism behind the indirect effect is informal interpersonal lending fostered by risk-sharing strategies. The findings imply that once liquidity is injected into a village it gets circulated in the community, stimulating migration particularly within credit-constrained minority communities.
{"title":"Targeted Cash Transfers, Credit Constraints, and Ethnic Migration in the People�s Republic of China","authors":"Howell Anthony","doi":"10.22617/WPS190089-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/WPS190089-2","url":null,"abstract":"This paper relies on recent proprietary data from the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) poor rural minority areas to examine the importance of credit constraints on internal labor migration. Specifically, a liquidity shock via the PRC’s minimum living standard assistance (MLSA) program is decomposed into its direct and indirect parts. The institutional features of the MLSA program permit an identification strategy that relies on a set of verifiable assumptions and an instrument variable framework. The results reveal that the direct effect on migration of MLSA is negative, although the net effect is positive driven by the large indirect effects, which are twice as large for ethnic minorities compared to the Han majority. Subsequent evidence further suggests that the main mechanism behind the indirect effect is informal interpersonal lending fostered by risk-sharing strategies. The findings imply that once liquidity is injected into a village it gets circulated in the community, stimulating migration particularly within credit-constrained minority communities.","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44693466","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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