This study develops a framework to forecast India’s gross domestic product growth on a quarterly frequency from 2004 to 2018. The models, which are based on real and monetary sector descriptions of the Indian economy, are estimated using Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) techniques. The real sector groups of variables include domestic aggregate demand indicators and foreign variables, while the monetary sector groups specify the underlying inflationary process in terms of the consumer price index (CPI) versus the wholesale price index given India’s recent monetary policy regime switch to CPI inflation targeting. The predictive ability of over 3,000 BVAR models is assessed through a set of forecast evaluation statistics and compared with the forecasting accuracy of alternate econometric models including unrestricted and structural VARs. Key findings include that capital flows to India and CPI inflation have high informational content for India’s GDP growth. The results of this study provide suggestive evidence that quarterly BVAR models of Indian growth have high predictive ability.
{"title":"Quarterly Forecasting Model for India's Economic Growth:","authors":"T. Iyer, Abhijit Sen Gupta","doi":"10.22617/WPS190056-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/WPS190056-2","url":null,"abstract":"This study develops a framework to forecast India’s gross domestic product growth on a quarterly frequency from 2004 to 2018. The models, which are based on real and monetary sector descriptions of the Indian economy, are estimated using Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) techniques. The real sector groups of variables include domestic aggregate demand indicators and foreign variables, while the monetary sector groups specify the underlying inflationary process in terms of the consumer price index (CPI) versus the wholesale price index given India’s recent monetary policy regime switch to CPI inflation targeting. The predictive ability of over 3,000 BVAR models is assessed through a set of forecast evaluation statistics and compared with the forecasting accuracy of alternate econometric models including unrestricted and structural VARs. Key findings include that capital flows to India and CPI inflation have high informational content for India’s GDP growth. The results of this study provide suggestive evidence that quarterly BVAR models of Indian growth have high predictive ability.","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45799310","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Nonperforming Loans in Asia:","authors":"Junkyu Lee, Peter Rosenkranz","doi":"10.22617/wps190050-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/wps190050-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68273323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Kaushal Joshi, H. Swaminathan, Arturo M. Martinez, Mildred Addawe, Christian Flora Mae Soco
Since the implementation of the Millennium Development Goals, significant global progress has been achieved in promoting gender equality in education and health. However, progress has not been as remarkable in advancing women’s rights on asset ownership and control, which is critical for securing gender equity in economic participation and opportunity, and delivering on the Sustainable Development Goals. Part of the problem comes from the lack of standards on collecting sexdisaggregated data on the topic. The Evidence and Data for Gender Equality (EDGE) initiative aims to develop standardized methods and guidelines for collecting sex-disaggregated data on asset ownership. This paper provides rich inputs to the methodological guidelines being developed by the United Nations and development partners by drawing on the key findings from the pilot surveys conducted in Georgia; Mongolia; and Cavite, Philippines. Furthermore, survey results suggest substantive gender gaps in ownership across different types of assets and countries. These variations confirm the importance of understanding the social norms governing gender roles in society and legislation that can facilitate or impede women’s asset ownership.
{"title":"Women�s Asset Ownership:","authors":"Kaushal Joshi, H. Swaminathan, Arturo M. Martinez, Mildred Addawe, Christian Flora Mae Soco","doi":"10.22617/wps190023-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/wps190023-2","url":null,"abstract":"Since the implementation of the Millennium Development Goals, significant global progress has been achieved in promoting gender equality in education and health. However, progress has not been as remarkable in advancing women’s rights on asset ownership and control, which is critical for securing gender equity in economic participation and opportunity, and delivering on the Sustainable Development Goals. Part of the problem comes from the lack of standards on collecting sexdisaggregated data on the topic. The Evidence and Data for Gender Equality (EDGE) initiative aims to develop standardized methods and guidelines for collecting sex-disaggregated data on asset ownership. This paper provides rich inputs to the methodological guidelines being developed by the United Nations and development partners by drawing on the key findings from the pilot surveys conducted in Georgia; Mongolia; and Cavite, Philippines. Furthermore, survey results suggest substantive gender gaps in ownership across different types of assets and countries. These variations confirm the importance of understanding the social norms governing gender roles in society and legislation that can facilitate or impede women’s asset ownership.","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42891558","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Global value chains (GVCs) have been a vehicle for job creation in developing Asia, but there is mounting concern that more sophisticated and cost-effective technology could displace workers through automation or reshoring of production. We use the demand-based input–output approach in Reijnders and de Vries (2018) to examine how employment responded to consumption, trade, and technological advances in 12 economies that accounted for 90% of employment in developing Asia during the period 2005–2015. Structural decomposition analysis based on the Asian Development Bank Multiregional Input–Output Tables combined with harmonized cross-country occupation data indicates that, other things being equal, technological change within GVCs was associated with a decrease in labor demand across all sectors, and an increase in the share of nonroutine cognitive occupations. We also find that increased domestic consumption expenditures of goods and services generated an increase in labor demand large enough to offset the negative employment impact of technological change. Finally, we do not find evidence of major shifts in occupational labor demand due to reshoring.
{"title":"The Employment Effects of Technological Innovation, Consumption, and Participation in Global Value Chains:","authors":"D. Bertulfo, Elisabetta Gentile, G. J. Vries","doi":"10.22617/WPS190022-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/WPS190022-2","url":null,"abstract":"Global value chains (GVCs) have been a vehicle for job creation in developing Asia, but there is mounting concern that more sophisticated and cost-effective technology could displace workers through automation or reshoring of production. We use the demand-based input–output approach in Reijnders and de Vries (2018) to examine how employment responded to consumption, trade, and technological advances in 12 economies that accounted for 90% of employment in developing Asia during the period 2005–2015. Structural decomposition analysis based on the Asian Development Bank Multiregional Input–Output Tables combined with harmonized cross-country occupation data indicates that, other things being equal, technological change within GVCs was associated with a decrease in labor demand across all sectors, and an increase in the share of nonroutine cognitive occupations. We also find that increased domestic consumption expenditures of goods and services generated an increase in labor demand large enough to offset the negative employment impact of technological change. Finally, we do not find evidence of major shifts in occupational labor demand due to reshoring.","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-02-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43835386","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Economic analysis often faces challenges in the valuation of nonmarket goods and services. The traditional set of nonmarket valuation tools for measuring Marshallian economic surplus has limitations related to potential bias in stated preferences and endogeneity of nonmarket amenity placement in revealed preference studies. The life satisfaction approach offers a Hicksian compensating variationbased alternative, which uses self-reported subjective well-being to calculate the marginal rate of substitution of income for nonmarket amenities or services. The conceptual basis for the approach is explained and illustrated with an example from Iloilo, Philippines. Recommendations are offered for future application of the technique in the economic analysis of investment projects.
{"title":"Potential Use of the Life Satisfaction Approach to Value Nonmarket Good and Services","authors":"C. J. Fernandez, D. Raitzer, Edimon Ginting","doi":"10.22617/WPS199912-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/WPS199912-2","url":null,"abstract":"Economic analysis often faces challenges in the valuation of nonmarket goods and services. The traditional set of nonmarket valuation tools for measuring Marshallian economic surplus has limitations related to potential bias in stated preferences and endogeneity of nonmarket amenity placement in revealed preference studies. The life satisfaction approach offers a Hicksian compensating variationbased alternative, which uses self-reported subjective well-being to calculate the marginal rate of substitution of income for nonmarket amenities or services. The conceptual basis for the approach is explained and illustrated with an example from Iloilo, Philippines. Recommendations are offered for future application of the technique in the economic analysis of investment projects.","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48828531","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Asian Development Outlook Forecast Accuracy 2007�2016","authors":"Ferrarini Benno","doi":"10.22617/wps199903-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/wps199903-2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41462504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Work experience is a key variable in earnings function estimates and wage gap decompositions. Because data on actual work experience are rare, studies commonly use proxies, such as potential experience. But potential experience is identical for all individuals of the same age and level of education, so it ignores labor market intermittency because of childbirth and child-rearing—a critical omission when analyzing gender differences in earnings. This paper constructs a better proxy: expected work experience—the sum of the annual probabilities that an individual worked in the past. This measure can be generated using commonly available data on labor force participation rates by age and gender to gauge the probability of past work. Applying the measure to labor force survey data from the Philippines shows that conventional proxies underestimate the contribution of gender differences in work experience in explaining the gender wage gap.
{"title":"Expected Work Experience:","authors":"Joseph E. Zveglich, Yana Rodgers, E. Laviña","doi":"10.22617/WPS190005-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/WPS190005-2","url":null,"abstract":"Work experience is a key variable in earnings function estimates and wage gap decompositions. Because data on actual work experience are rare, studies commonly use proxies, such as potential experience. But potential experience is identical for all individuals of the same age and level of education, so it ignores labor market intermittency because of childbirth and child-rearing—a critical omission when analyzing gender differences in earnings. This paper constructs a better proxy: expected work experience—the sum of the annual probabilities that an individual worked in the past. This measure can be generated using commonly available data on labor force participation rates by age and gender to gauge the probability of past work. Applying the measure to labor force survey data from the Philippines shows that conventional proxies underestimate the contribution of gender differences in work experience in explaining the gender wage gap.","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47895807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The rapid accumulation of private debt is widely viewed as a major risk to financial and economic stability. This paper systematically and comprehensively assesses the effect of private debt buildup on economic growth. In the spirit of Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) that separately examine the effects of two types of private debt, i.e., household debt and corporate debt, on growth in developed economies, this study specifically provides new evidence on the growth–private debt nexus in both advanced and emerging market economies (EMEs). Moreover, we construct financial peaks in terms of the speed of debt accumulation rather than crisis dates and find that in both advanced and EMEs, corporate debt buildups cause more financial peaks than household debt buildups. Further, corporate debt-induced financial recessions inflict a bigger damage on output than household debt-induced financial recessions in EMEs. Overall, our evidence suggests that policy makers would do well to closely monitor not only household debt but also corporate debt.
{"title":"Household Debt, Corporate Debt, and the Real Economy","authors":"Donghyun Park, Kwanho Shin, Shu Tian","doi":"10.22617/WPS189775-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/WPS189775-2","url":null,"abstract":"The rapid accumulation of private debt is widely viewed as a major risk to financial and economic stability. This paper systematically and comprehensively assesses the effect of private debt buildup on economic growth. In the spirit of Mian, Sufi, and Verner (2017) that separately examine the effects of two types of private debt, i.e., household debt and corporate debt, on growth in developed economies, this study specifically provides new evidence on the growth–private debt nexus in both advanced and emerging market economies (EMEs). Moreover, we construct financial peaks in terms of the speed of debt accumulation rather than crisis dates and find that in both advanced and EMEs, corporate debt buildups cause more financial peaks than household debt buildups. Further, corporate debt-induced financial recessions inflict a bigger damage on output than household debt-induced financial recessions in EMEs. Overall, our evidence suggests that policy makers would do well to closely monitor not only household debt but also corporate debt.","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47614489","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Public–private partnerships (PPPs) face a range of challenges in developed economies, such as appropriate risk sharing, attracting the right sponsors, and ensuring quality of service. As a large percentage of ADB’s developing member countries are considered risky borrowers by international standards, sovereign risks play an important role in predicting the number of PPPs as well as the size of investment commitments. To catalyze PPPs in developing economies with higher risk ratings, sovereign risk mitigation is often needed. This article explores how country and sovereign risks deter private investors, solutions provided by multilateral development banks to reduce these risks, and policy implications for employing these solutions.
{"title":"Risk Mitigation and Sovereign Guarantees for Public�Private Partnerships in Developing Economies","authors":"A. Jett","doi":"10.22617/WPS189626-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/WPS189626-2","url":null,"abstract":"Public–private partnerships (PPPs) face a range of challenges in developed economies, such as appropriate risk sharing, attracting the right sponsors, and ensuring quality of service. As a large percentage of ADB’s developing member countries are considered risky borrowers by international standards, sovereign risks play an important role in predicting the number of PPPs as well as the size of investment commitments. To catalyze PPPs in developing economies with higher risk ratings, sovereign risk mitigation is often needed. This article explores how country and sovereign risks deter private investors, solutions provided by multilateral development banks to reduce these risks, and policy implications for employing these solutions.","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48024502","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper employs a multidimensional approach to gauge the degree of regional integration and analyze impact on growth, inequality, and poverty. It constructs a multidimensional regional integration index (MDRII) series that embodies six key facets of regional integration: (i) trade and investment, (ii) money and finance, (iii) regional value chains, (iv) infrastructure and connectivity, (v) movement of people, and (vi) institutional and social integration. The MDRII confirms that regional integration is most advanced in the European Union which scores high in all six dimensions; Asia comes second with the largest contribution from infrastructure and connectivity. Empirical analysis suggests significant and positive development impact of regional integration even when trade and financial openness is controlled. The regional value chain, movement of people, and institutional and social integration dimensions have been significant drivers of economic growth. Infrastructure and connectivity improve income distribution. Overall integration alongside the dimensions of trade and investment, money and finance, and institutional and social integration appear to significantly and robustly reduce poverty.
{"title":"Does Regional Integration Matter for Inclusive Growth?:","authors":"Cyn‐Young Park, Racquel A. Claveria","doi":"10.22617/wps189608-2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.22617/wps189608-2","url":null,"abstract":"This paper employs a multidimensional approach to gauge the degree of regional integration and analyze impact on growth, inequality, and poverty. It constructs a multidimensional regional integration index (MDRII) series that embodies six key facets of regional integration: (i) trade and investment, (ii) money and finance, (iii) regional value chains, (iv) infrastructure and connectivity, (v) movement of people, and (vi) institutional and social integration. The MDRII confirms that regional integration is most advanced in the European Union which scores high in all six dimensions; Asia comes second with the largest contribution from infrastructure and connectivity. Empirical analysis suggests significant and positive development impact of regional integration even when trade and financial openness is controlled. The regional value chain, movement of people, and institutional and social integration dimensions have been significant drivers of economic growth. Infrastructure and connectivity improve income distribution. Overall integration alongside the dimensions of trade and investment, money and finance, and institutional and social integration appear to significantly and robustly reduce poverty.","PeriodicalId":90779,"journal":{"name":"ADB economics working paper series","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41474980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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