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The collective intelligence of evolution and development 进化和发展的集体智慧
Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.1177/26339137231168355
Richard Watson, Michael Levin
Collective intelligence and individual intelligence are usually considered to be fundamentally different. Individual intelligence is uncontroversial. It occurs in organisms with special neural machinery, evolved by natural selection to enable cognitive and learning functions that serve the fitness benefit of the organism, and then trained through lifetime experience to maximise individual rewards. Whilst the mechanisms of individual intelligence are not fully understood, good models exist for many aspects of individual cognition and learning. Collective intelligence, in contrast, is a much more ambiguous idea. What exactly constitutes collective intelligence is often vague, and the mechanisms that might enable it are frequently domain-specific. These cannot be mechanisms selected specifically for the purpose of collective intelligence because collectives are not (except in special circumstances) evolutionary units, and it is not clear that collectives can learn the way individual intelligences do since they are not a singular locus of rewards and benefits. Here, we use examples from evolution and developmental morphogenesis to argue that these apparent distinctions are not as categorical as they appear. Breaking down such distinctions enables us to borrow from and expand existing models of individual cognition and learning as a framework for collective intelligence, in particular connectionist models familiar in the context of neural networks. We discuss how specific features of these models inform the necessary and sufficient conditions for collective intelligence, and identify current knowledge gaps as opportunities for future research.
集体智慧和个人智慧通常被认为是根本不同的。个体的智力是无可争议的。它发生在具有特殊神经机制的生物体中,通过自然选择进化,使认知和学习功能服务于生物体的适应性利益,然后通过一生的经历进行训练,使个体回报最大化。虽然个体智力的机制尚未被完全理解,但个体认知和学习的许多方面都存在良好的模型。相比之下,集体智慧是一个更加模糊的概念。集体智慧的确切构成通常是模糊的,而可能实现集体智慧的机制往往是特定于领域的。这些机制不可能是专门为集体智慧的目的而选择的,因为集体不是(特殊情况下除外)进化单位,也不清楚集体是否能像个体智能那样学习,因为它们不是单一的奖励和利益场所。在这里,我们使用进化和发育形态发生的例子来论证这些明显的区别并不像它们看起来那样明确。打破这种差异使我们能够借鉴和扩展现有的个体认知和学习模型,作为集体智慧的框架,特别是在神经网络环境中熟悉的连接主义模型。我们讨论了这些模型的具体特征如何为集体智慧提供必要和充分的条件,并将当前的知识差距确定为未来研究的机会。
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引用次数: 4
The pandemic veneer: COVID-19 research as a mobilisation of collective intelligence by the global research community. 大流行的表象:新冠肺炎研究是全球研究界对集体智慧的动员。
Pub Date : 2023-02-13 DOI: 10.1177/26339137221146482
Daniel W Hook, James R Wilsdon

The global research community responded with speed and at scale to the emergence of COVID-19, with around 4.6% of all research outputs in 2020 related to the pandemic. That share almost doubled through 2021, to reach 8.6% of research outputs. This reflects a dramatic mobilisation of global collective intelligence in the face of a crisis. It also raises fundamental questions about the funding, organisation and operation of research. In this Perspective article, we present data that suggests that COVID-19 research reflects the characteristics of the underlying networks from which it emerged, and on which it built. The infrastructures on which COVID-19 research has relied - including highly skilled, flexible research capacity and collaborative networks - predated the pandemic, and are the product of sustained, long-term investment. As such, we argue that COVID-19 research should not be viewed as a distinct field, or one-off response to a specific crisis, but as a 'pandemic veneer' layered on top of longstanding interdisciplinary networks, capabilities and structures. These infrastructures of collective intelligence need to be better understood, valued and sustained as crucial elements of future pandemic or crisis response.

全球研究界对新冠肺炎的出现做出了迅速和大规模的反应,2020年约有4.6%的研究成果与疫情有关。到2021年,这一比例几乎翻了一番,达到研究产出的8.6%。这反映了在危机面前全球集体智慧的戏剧性动员。它还提出了关于研究的资金、组织和运作的基本问题。在这篇Perspective文章中,我们提供的数据表明,新冠肺炎研究反映了其产生和建立的基础网络的特征。新冠肺炎研究所依赖的基础设施——包括高技能、灵活的研究能力和协作网络——早在大流行之前,是持续长期投资的产物。因此,我们认为,新冠肺炎研究不应被视为一个独特的领域,或对特定危机的一次性反应,而应视为长期跨学科网络、能力和结构之上的“流行病外衣”。需要更好地理解、重视和维持这些集体情报基础设施,将其作为未来应对疫情或危机的关键要素。
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引用次数: 0
Collective decision strategies in the presence of spatio-temporal correlations 时空关联下的集体决策策略
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1177/26339137221148675
Claudia Winklmayr, Albert B. Kao, J. Bak-Coleman, P. Romanczuk
Background: Models of collective decision-making typically assume that individuals sample information independently and decide instantaneously. In most natural and sociological settings, however, decisions occur over some timescale in which group members gather information—often from multiple sources. Information sources may persist for varying lengths of time or be viewed concurrently and identically by multiple group members. These tendencies introduce spatio-temporal correlations in gathered information with poorly understood consequences. Research Design: Here, we develop a collective decision-making model in which individuals’ access and switch between two conflicting cues that differ in their spatio-temporal properties. Results: Our model reveals that spatially and temporally correlated cues can profoundly affect collective decisions. Specifically, we observe that spatially correlated cues are dominant when individuals rarely switch between sources of information. Temporally correlated cues, on the other hand, have the strongest impact when individuals frequently switch between information sources. We also discuss how much the usage of independent information must be increased to counter the impact of correlation. Conclusions: The present model represents a first step toward more accurately capturing the complex mechanisms underlying collective decision-making in natural systems and reveals multiple ways in which the properties of environmental cues can impact collective behavior.
背景:集体决策模型通常假设个体独立地获取信息并即时做出决定。然而,在大多数自然和社会环境中,决策发生在一定的时间尺度上,在这个时间尺度上,团队成员通常从多个来源收集信息。信息源可能持续不同长度的时间,或者由多个组成员同时和相同地查看。这些趋势在收集到的信息中引入了时空相关性,其后果难以理解。研究设计:在这里,我们开发了一个集体决策模型,在这个模型中,个体在两个时空属性不同的相互冲突的线索之间获取和切换。结果:我们的模型揭示了空间和时间相关的线索可以深刻地影响集体决策。具体来说,我们观察到,当个体很少在信息来源之间切换时,空间相关线索占主导地位。另一方面,当个体频繁地在信息源之间切换时,时间相关线索的影响最大。我们还讨论了必须增加多少独立信息的使用来抵消相关性的影响。结论:目前的模型向更准确地捕捉自然系统中集体决策的复杂机制迈出了第一步,并揭示了环境线索属性影响集体行为的多种方式。
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引用次数: 2
Benefits of spontaneous confidence alignment between dyad members 二人组成员之间自发的信心结盟的好处
Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/26339137221126915
N. Pescetelli, N. Yeung
In many domains, imitating others’ behaviour can help individuals to solve problems that would be too difficult or too complex for the individuals. In collective decision making tasks, people have been shown to use confidence as a means to communicate the uncertainty surrounding internal noisy estimates. Here, we show that confidence alignment, namely, shifting average confidence between dyad members towards each other, naturally emerges when interacting with others’ opinions. This alignment has a measurable impact on group performance as well as the accuracy of individual members following information exchange. It is suggested that confidence alignment arises among individuals from the necessity of minimising confidence variation arising from task-unrelated variables (trait confidence), while at the same time maximising variation arising from stimulus characteristics (state confidence).
在许多领域,模仿他人的行为可以帮助个人解决对个人来说太困难或太复杂的问题。在集体决策任务中,人们已经被证明使用信心作为一种手段来沟通围绕内部嘈杂估计的不确定性。在这里,我们表明,当与他人的意见互动时,信心一致性,即二人组成员之间对彼此的平均信心的转移,自然会出现。这种一致性对团队绩效以及个体成员在信息交换后的准确性具有可衡量的影响。这表明,个体之间的信心一致性源于最小化由任务无关变量(特质置信度)引起的信心变化的必要性,同时最大化由刺激特征(状态置信度)引起的变化。
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引用次数: 0
Historical growth of concept networks in Wikipedia 维基百科中概念网络的历史发展
Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/26339137221109839
Harang Ju, D. Zhou, A. S. Blevins, D. Lydon‐Staley, Judith R. H. Kaplan, Julio R. Tuma, D. Bassett
Philosophers of science have long questioned how collective scientific knowledge grows. Although disparate answers have been posited, empirical validation has been challenging due to limitations in collecting and systematizing large historical records. Here, we introduce new methods to analyze scientific knowledge formulated as a growing network of articles on Wikipedia and their hyperlinks. We demonstrate that in Wikipedia, concept networks in subdisciplines of science do not grow by expanding from their central core to reach an ancillary periphery. Instead, science concept networks in Wikipedia grow by creating and filling knowledge gaps. Notably, the process of gap formation and closure may be valued by the scientific community, as evidenced by the fact that it produces discoveries that are more frequently awarded Nobel prizes than other processes. To determine whether and how the gap process is interrupted by paradigm shifts, we operationalize a paradigm as a particular subdivision of scientific concepts into network modules. Hence, paradigm shifts are reconfigurations of those modules. The approach allows us to identify a temporal signature in structural stability across scientific subjects in Wikipedia. In a network formulation of scientific discovery, our findings suggest that data-driven conditions underlying scientific breakthroughs depend as much on exploring uncharted gaps as on exploiting existing disciplines and support policies that encourage new interdisciplinary research.
科学哲学家长期以来一直质疑集体科学知识是如何增长的。尽管已经提出了不同的答案,但由于收集和系统化大型历史记录的局限性,经验验证一直具有挑战性。在这里,我们介绍了新的方法来分析科学知识,这些知识是由维基百科上不断增长的文章网络及其超链接形成的。我们证明,在维基百科中,科学分支学科的概念网络不会通过从其核心扩展到辅助边缘而增长。相反,维基百科中的科学概念网络是通过创造和填补知识空白而发展起来的。值得注意的是,裂缝形成和闭合的过程可能受到科学界的重视,这一点可以从它产生的发现比其他过程更频繁地获得诺贝尔奖这一事实中得到证明。为了确定差距过程是否以及如何被范式转换打断,我们将范式作为科学概念的特定细分操作到网络模块中。因此,范式转换是对这些模块的重新配置。该方法使我们能够识别维基百科中科学主题结构稳定性的时间特征。在科学发现的网络表述中,我们的研究结果表明,科学突破背后的数据驱动条件既依赖于探索未知的差距,也依赖于利用现有学科和鼓励新的跨学科研究的支持政策。
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引用次数: 3
Erratum to Examining the limits of the Condorcet Jury Theorem: Tradeoffs in hierarchical information aggregation systems 检验孔多塞陪审团定理的局限性的勘误:层次信息聚合系统中的权衡
Pub Date : 2022-10-01 DOI: 10.1177/26339137221141667
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引用次数: 0
Optimising collective accuracy among rational individuals in sequential decision-making with competition 具有竞争的顺序决策中理性个体的集体准确性优化
Pub Date : 2022-09-10 DOI: 10.1177/26339137231176481
R. Mann
Theoretical results underpinning the wisdom of the crowd, such as the Condorcet Jury Theorem, point to substantial accuracy gains through aggregation of decisions or opinions, but the foundations of this theorem are routinely undermined in circumstances where individuals are able to adapt their own choices based after observing what other agents have chosen. In sequential decision-making, rational agents use the choices of others as a source of information about the correct decision, creating powerful correlations between different agents’ choices that violate the assumptions of independence on which the Condorcet Jury Theorem depends. In this paper, I show how such correlations emerge when agents are rewarded solely based on their individual accuracy, and the impact of this on collective accuracy. I then demonstrate how a simple competitive reward scheme, where agents’ rewards are greater if they correctly choose options that few have already chosen, can induce rational agents to make independent choices, returning the group to optimal levels of collective accuracy. I further show that this reward scheme is robust, offering improvements to collective accuracy across wide range of competition strengths, suggesting that such schemes could be effectively implemented in real-world contexts to improve collective wisdom.
支持群体智慧的理论结果,如孔多塞陪审团定理(Condorcet Jury Theorem),指出通过汇总决策或意见,可以获得实质性的准确性提高,但在个人能够根据观察其他代理人的选择调整自己的选择的情况下,这一定理的基础通常会受到破坏。在顺序决策中,理性主体使用他人的选择作为正确决策的信息来源,在不同主体的选择之间建立强大的相关性,这违反了孔多塞陪审团定理所依赖的独立性假设。在本文中,我展示了当代理仅根据其个人准确性获得奖励时,这种相关性是如何出现的,以及这对集体准确性的影响。然后,我展示了一个简单的竞争性奖励方案,在这个方案中,如果代理人正确地选择了很少有人已经选择过的选项,他们的奖励就会更大,这可以诱使理性的代理人做出独立的选择,使群体回归到集体准确性的最佳水平。我进一步表明,这种奖励方案是稳健的,在广泛的竞争优势中提高了集体的准确性,这表明这种方案可以在现实世界中有效地实施,以提高集体的智慧。
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引用次数: 1
Kill chaos with kindness: Agreeableness improves team performance under uncertainty 友善消弭混乱:在不确定的情况下,友善能提高团队绩效
Pub Date : 2022-08-09 DOI: 10.1177/26339137231158584
Soo Ling Lim, P. Bentley, R. Peterson, Xiaoran Hu, JoEllyn Prouty McLaren
Teams are central to human accomplishment. Over the past half-century, psychologists have identified the Big-Five cross-culturally valid personality variables: Neuroticism, Extraversion, Openness, Conscientiousness, and Agreeableness. The first four have shown consistent relationships with team performance. Agreeableness (being harmonious, altruistic, humble, and cooperative), however, has demonstrated a non-significant and highly variable relationship with team performance. We resolve this inconsistency through computational modelling. An agent-based model (ABM) is used to predict the effects of personality traits on teamwork, and a genetic algorithm is then used to explore the limits of the ABM in order to discover which traits correlate with best and worst performing teams for a problem with different levels of uncertainty (noise). New dependencies revealed by the exploration are corroborated by analyzing previously unseen data from one of the largest datasets on team performance to date comprising 3698 individuals in 593 teams working on more than 5000 group tasks with and without uncertainty, collected over a 10-year period. Our finding is that the dependency between team performance and Agreeableness is moderated by task uncertainty. Combining evolutionary computation with ABMs in this way provides a new methodology for the scientific investigation of teamwork, making new predictions, and improving our understanding of human behaviors. Our results confirm the potential usefulness of computer modelling for developing theory, as well as shedding light on the future of teams as work environments are becoming increasingly fluid and uncertain.
团队是人类成就的核心。在过去的半个世纪里,心理学家已经确定了五大跨文化有效的人格变量:神经质、外向性、开放性、尽责性和宜人性。前四项与团队绩效的关系是一致的。然而,亲和性(和谐、利他、谦逊和合作)与团队绩效之间的关系不显著,且变化很大。我们通过计算建模来解决这种不一致。一个基于主体的模型(ABM)被用来预测人格特质对团队合作的影响,然后一个遗传算法被用来探索ABM的极限,以发现哪些特质与不同程度的不确定性(噪音)问题中表现最好和最差的团队相关。通过分析迄今为止最大的团队绩效数据集之一的以前未见过的数据,该数据集包括593个团队的3698名个人,他们在不确定和不确定的情况下完成了5000多个小组任务,这些数据收集于10年期间。我们的研究发现,团队绩效与亲和性之间的依赖关系受到任务不确定性的调节。以这种方式将进化计算与ABMs相结合,为团队合作的科学研究提供了一种新的方法,可以做出新的预测,提高我们对人类行为的理解。我们的研究结果证实了计算机建模在发展理论方面的潜在用处,同时也揭示了随着工作环境变得越来越不稳定和不确定,团队的未来。
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引用次数: 2
Collective wisdom in polarized groups 两极分化群体的集体智慧
Pub Date : 2022-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/26339137221104788
J. Bak-Coleman, C. K. Tokita, Dylan H. Morris, D. Rubenstein, I. Couzin
The potential for groups to outperform the cognitive capabilities of even highly skilled individuals, known as the “wisdom of the crowd”, is crucial to the functioning of democratic institutions. In recent years, increasing polarization has led to concern about its effects on the accuracy of electorates, juries, courts, and congress. While there is empirical evidence of collective wisdom in partisan crowds, a general theory has remained elusive. Central to the challenge is the difficulty of disentangling the effect of limited interaction between opposing groups (homophily) from their tendency to hold opposing viewpoints (partisanship). To overcome this challenge, we develop an agent-based model of collective wisdom parameterized by the experimentally-measured behaviour of participants across the political spectrum. In doing so, we reveal that differences across the political spectrum in how individuals express and respond to knowledge interact with the structure of the network to either promote or undermine wisdom. We verify these findings experimentally and construct a more general theoretical framework. Finally, we provide evidence that incidental, context-specific differences across the political spectrum likely determine the impact of polarization. Overall, our results show that whether polarized groups benefit from collective wisdom is generally predictable but highly context-specific.
群体的认知能力甚至超过高技能个人的潜力,即所谓的“群体智慧”,对民主制度的运作至关重要。近年来,两极分化的加剧引起了人们对其对选民、陪审团、法院和国会准确性的影响的担忧。虽然有经验证据表明党派群体中存在集体智慧,但一个普遍的理论仍然难以捉摸。挑战的核心是很难将对立群体之间有限互动的影响(同质性)与他们持有对立观点的倾向(党派关系)区分开来。为了克服这一挑战,我们开发了一个基于主体的集体智慧模型,该模型由不同政治派别参与者的实验测量行为参数化。在这样做的过程中,我们揭示了不同政治派别在个人如何表达和回应知识方面的差异与网络结构的相互作用,从而促进或破坏智慧。我们通过实验验证了这些发现,并构建了一个更一般的理论框架。最后,我们提供的证据表明,政治光谱中偶然的、特定背景的差异可能决定了两极分化的影响。总的来说,我们的研究结果表明,两极分化的群体是否从集体智慧中受益,通常是可以预测的,但高度具体到具体情况。
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引用次数: 2
Partial copying and the role of diversity in social learning performance 部分复制与多样性在社会学习表现中的作用
Pub Date : 2022-08-01 DOI: 10.1177/26339137221081849
Chelsea M Campbell, E. Izquierdo, Robert L. Goldstone
One major way that people engage in adaptive problem solving is by imitating others’ solutions. Prominent simulation models have found imperfect imitation advantageous, but the interactions between copying amount and other prevalent aspects of social learning strategies have been underexplored. Here, we explore the consequences for a group when its members engage in strategies with different degrees of copying, solving search problems of varying complexity, in different network topologies that affect the solutions visible to each member. Using a computational model of collective problem solving, we demonstrate that the advantage of partial copying is robust across these conditions, arising from its ability to maintain diversity. Partial copying delays convergence generally but especially in globally connected networks, which are typically associated with diversity loss, allowing more exploration of a problem space. We show that a moderate amount of diversity maintenance is optimal and strategies can be adjusted to find that sweet spot.
人们进行适应性问题解决的一个主要方式是模仿他人的解决方案。著名的模拟模型发现不完全模仿是有利的,但复制量与社会学习策略的其他普遍方面之间的相互作用尚未得到充分探讨。在这里,我们探讨了当一个群体的成员在不同的网络拓扑中采用不同程度的复制策略,解决不同复杂性的搜索问题时,对每个成员可见的解决方案的影响。使用集体问题解决的计算模型,我们证明了部分复制的优势在这些条件下是稳健的,这源于它保持多样性的能力。部分复制通常会延迟收敛,特别是在全球连接的网络中,这通常与多样性损失有关,允许更多的问题空间探索。我们表明,适度的多样性维持是最佳的,可以调整策略以找到最佳点。
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引用次数: 6
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Collective intelligence
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