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Optimal pathways for the decarbonisation of the transport sector: Trade-offs between battery and hydrogen technologies using a whole energy system perspective 运输部门脱碳的最佳途径:从整个能源系统的角度权衡电池和氢气技术
Pub Date : 2023-06-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.clpl.2023.100044
Arthur Rinaldi , Arven Syla , Martin K. Patel , David Parra

Several countries have revised their targets in recent years to reach net-zero CO2 emissions across all sectors by 2050, and the transport sector is responsible for a significant share of these emissions. This study compares possible pathways to decarbonise the transport sector including passenger cars, light commercial vehicles and heavy commercial vehicles. To do so, we explore 125 scenarios by varying the share of battery and hydrogen-based fuel cell electric vehicles in each of the three categories above independently. We further model the decarbonisation of the industrial hydrogen demand using electrolysers with hydrogen storage. To explore the potential role of electric and hydrogen transport, as well as their trade-offs, we use GRIMSEL, an open-source sector coupling energy system model of Switzerland which includes the residential, commercial, industrial and transport sectors with four energy carriers, namely electricity, heat, hot water and hydrogen. The total costs are minimised from a social planner perspective. We find that the decarbonisation of the transport sector could lead, on average, to a 12% increase in costs by 2050 and 1.3 MtCO2/year which represents a 90% CO2 emissions reduction for the whole sector, compared to fossil-based transport. Second, the transport energy self-sufficiency (i.e. the share of domestic electricity generation in final transport demand) may reach up to 50% for the scenarios with the largest share of battery electric vehicles, mainly due to a smaller energy demand than with hydrogen vehicles. Third, more than three quarters of the industrial hydrogen production is met by local photovoltaic electricity coupled with battery at minimum costs, i.e. green hydrogen. Finally, the use of hydrogen as an energy carrier to store electricity over a long period is not cost-optimal.

近年来,一些国家修改了其目标,到2050年实现所有部门的二氧化碳净零排放,而运输部门在这些排放中占很大比例。这项研究比较了运输部门脱碳的可能途径,包括乘用车、轻型商用车和重型商用车。为此,我们通过独立改变电池和氢燃料电池电动汽车在上述三类中的份额,探索了125种场景。我们使用带储氢装置的电解槽进一步模拟了工业氢气需求的脱碳。为了探索电力和氢气运输的潜在作用及其权衡,我们使用了GRIMSEL,这是瑞士的一个开源部门耦合能源系统模型,包括住宅、商业、工业和运输部门,有四种能源载体,即电力、热力、热水和氢气。从社会规划师的角度来看,总成本是最小化的。我们发现,到2050年,运输部门的脱碳平均可能导致成本增加12%,每年增加130万二氧化碳,与化石燃料运输相比,整个部门的二氧化碳排放量减少了90%。其次,对于电池电动汽车份额最大的场景,运输能源自给率(即国内发电在最终运输需求中的份额)可能高达50%,这主要是因为与氢动力汽车相比,能源需求较小。第三,超过四分之三的工业氢气生产由当地光伏发电和电池以最低成本(即绿色氢气)提供。最后,使用氢气作为能量载体长期储存电力并不是成本最优的。
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引用次数: 1
The conservation of biodiverse continuous forests and patches may provide services that support oil palm yield: Evidence from satellite crop monitoring 生物多样性连续森林和斑块的保护可能提供支持油棕榈产量的服务:来自卫星作物监测的证据
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.clpl.2023.100036
Aslinda Oon , Azizah Ahmad , Syarina Md Sah , Khairul Nizam Abdul Maulud , Muhammad Syafiq Yahya , Alex M. Lechner , Badrul Azhar

Protecting natural forests such as those identified as high conservation value (HCV) areas may facilitate crop production due to the benefit from ecosystem services provided by biodiversity spill-over from adjacent forests. To investigate the effect of protecting contiguous and isolated forests adjacent to oil palm plantations on crop health, we measured the distance between oil palm plots and the continuous forest and forest patch boundaries. We surveyed 715 oil palm sample plots comprising 613 plots in large-scale oil palm plantation and 102 plots in smallholdings that were at least 300 m apart and had a radius of 100 m. Satellite imagery and ancillary spatial data from 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2020 of Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia were used to determine elevation and vegetation indices (VIs). The VIs derived were the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI). Both NDVI and EVI are used to measure the vegetation greenness. The NDMI is used to determine the water content of plants. The VIs are crucial for a variety of applications, including vegetation monitoring, drought research, and agricultural operations. We then used generalized linear models (GLMs) to examine the relationship between VIs and stand-and landscape-level variables. Each VI was used as a response variable, with elevation, distance from continuous forest or forest patches, and oil palm management system (i.e., smallholding and industrial plantation) as explanatory variables. Our results revealed that the chlorophyll sensitive NDVI decreased with increasing distance from continuous forest, but increased away from the forest patches. In contrast, the dense vegetation sensitive EVI increased away from continuous forest, but decreased when distance from forest patches increased. Proximity to continuous forests or forest patches had no effect on the NDMI. All the vegetation indices were lower in smallholdings than industrial plantations. None of the vegetation indices were significantly influenced by elevation. Given that these indices predict palm health and yield, this pattern could result in greater ecosystem services that benefit oil palm growers in oil palm closer to some forest types through the spillover effects of forest biodiversity from continuous forests and forest patches. This study suggests that conservation and industry stakeholders should work together to strengthen the conservation of biodiverse continuous forests and forest patches in HCV standard to develop more-sustainable oil palm agriculture, because of their potential role in supporting ecosystem services.

保护天然林,如那些被确定为高保护价值(HCV)地区的天然林,可能会促进作物生产,因为从邻近森林溢出的生物多样性提供了生态系统服务。为了研究保护油棕种植园附近的毗连和孤立森林对作物健康的影响,我们测量了油棕地块与连续森林和森林斑块边界之间的距离。我们调查了715个油棕榈样地,包括613个大型油棕榈种植园样地和102个小农户样地,这些样地相距至少300米,半径为100米。使用马来西亚森比兰内盖里2016年、2018年、2019年和2020年的卫星图像和辅助空间数据来确定海拔和植被指数(VI)。得出的VI为归一化差异植被指数(NDVI)、增强植被指数(EVI)和归一化差异水分指数(NDMI)。NDVI和EVI都用于测量植被的绿色度。NDMI用于测定植物的含水量。VI对于各种应用至关重要,包括植被监测、干旱研究和农业运营。然后,我们使用广义线性模型(GLM)来检验VI与林分和景观水平变量之间的关系。每个VI都被用作响应变量,海拔、与连续森林或森林斑块的距离以及油棕管理系统(即小农户和工业种植园)作为解释变量。结果表明,叶绿素敏感性NDVI随距连片林距离的增加而降低,但距斑块较远时增加。相反,密集植被敏感EVI在远离连续森林的地方增加,但随着与森林斑块距离的增加而减少。邻近连续森林或森林斑块对NDMI没有影响。小农场的所有植被指数都低于工业种植园。植被指数均未受到海拔高度的显著影响。鉴于这些指数可以预测棕榈的健康和产量,这种模式可以通过连续森林和森林斑块的森林生物多样性溢出效应,为更接近某些森林类型的油棕榈种植者带来更大的生态系统服务。这项研究表明,保护和行业利益相关者应共同努力,加强HCV标准中生物多样性连续森林和森林斑块的保护,以发展更可持续的油棕榈农业,因为它们在支持生态系统服务方面具有潜在作用。
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引用次数: 1
Water consumption from electrolytic hydrogen in a carbon-neutral US energy system 碳中和的美国能源系统电解氢耗水量
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.clpl.2023.100037
Emily Grubert

Hydrogen is an energy carrier with potential applications in decarbonizing difficult-to-electrify energy and industrial systems. The environmental profile of hydrogen varies substantially with its inputs. Water consumption is a particular issue of interest as decisions are made about capital and other investments that will affect the scale and scope of hydrogen use. This study focuses on electrolytic hydrogen due to its path to greenhouse gas neutrality and irreducible water demand (though other pathways might be more water intensive). Specifically, it evaluates life cycle consumptive freshwater intensity of electrolytic hydrogen in the United States at volumes associated with 12 scenarios for a deeply decarbonized 2050 US energy system from two modeling efforts for which both electricity fuel mix and electrolytic hydrogen production were projected (America's Zero Carbon Action Plan and Net Zero America), in addition to volumes for a stylized energy storage project (500 MW hydrogen-fired turbine). Freshwater requirements for hydrogen could be large. Under a central estimate for 2050 US electrolytic hydrogen production, electrolytic freshwater demand for process and feedstock inputs alone (i.e., excluding water for electricity) would be about 7.5% of total 2014 US freshwater consumption for energy (1 billion cubic meters/year, 109 m3/y; [0.2%, 15%] across scenarios, for 2050 electrolytic hydrogen production of [0.3, 18] exajoules, EJ). Including water associated with production of input electricity doubles this central estimate to 15% (2 × 109 m3/y; [1%, 23%] across scenarios). Turbines using electrolytic hydrogen are estimated to be about as freshwater intensive as a coal or nuclear plant, assuming decarbonized, low-water electricity inputs. Although a decarbonized energy system is projected to require less water for resource capture and electricity conversion than the current, fossil-dominated energy system, additional conversion processes supporting decarbonization, like electrolysis, could offset water savings.

氢是一种能源载体,在难以通电的能源和工业系统脱碳方面具有潜在应用。氢气的环境状况随其输入量的变化而变化很大。随着资本和其他投资的决策将影响氢气使用的规模和范围,耗水量是一个特别令人感兴趣的问题。这项研究的重点是电解氢,因为它可以实现温室气体中和和不可减少的水需求(尽管其他途径可能更耗水)。具体而言,它评估了美国电解氢的生命周期淡水消耗强度,其量与2050年深度脱碳的美国能源系统的12种情景相关,这两种建模工作都预测了电力燃料组合和电解氢生产(美国的零碳行动计划和净零美国),除了一个程式化的储能项目(500兆瓦氢燃涡轮机)的容量外。淡水对氢气的需求可能很大。根据对2050年美国电解氢产量的中央估计,仅工艺和原料投入(即不包括电力用水)的电解淡水需求将约为2014年美国能源淡水消耗总量的7.5%(10亿立方米/年,109立方米/年;在各种情况下,【0.2%,15%】,2050年电解氢产量为【0.3,18】EB焦耳,EJ)。包括与输入电力生产相关的水在内,这一中心估计值翻了一番,达到15%(2×109立方米/年;在各种情况下为[1%,23%])。假设脱碳、低水电投入,使用电解氢的涡轮机的淡水密集度估计与燃煤或核电站差不多。尽管脱碳能源系统预计比目前以化石为主的能源系统需要更少的水来进行资源捕获和电力转换,但支持脱碳的额外转换过程,如电解,可能会抵消节水。
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引用次数: 2
A framework on circular production principles and a way to operationalise circularity in production industry 循环生产原则的框架和在生产行业实现循环的方法
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.clpl.2023.100038
Emma Lindahl, Jon-Erik Dahlin, Monica Bellgran

In the context of increasing pressure for sustainable production practices, this paper proposes a framework for how production companies could operationalise circular economy principles. The focus is on the production organisation, and how production operations could contribute to strategic circularity change. Prior research has used the Green kaizen methodology to identify environmental aspects and circularity related to the input-output flow of resources at the production shop floor. However, this paper finds that a more comprehensive approach is required, involving all levels of the production organisation. First, the paper defines circular production principles for production operations, showing that these principles vary across different company levels. Operations and shop floor level principles tend to be closer to the production input-output system, whereas factory management level principles are more focused on information sharing and internal and external relations. The circular production principles followed a hierarchical organisational structure with a bottom-up drive, where the allocation of organisational resources increased as the level of the hierarchy increased. The study reveals parallels with Likert's management system, where green kaizen activities are suitable for the shop floor level, but business development requires authority exploitation. Secondly, the paper identifies four circularity impact factors that apply to all company levels. These factors enhance the practical utility and implementation of circularity aspects, making them applicable to all levels of the company. The framework for bottom-up escalation of circular production principles can be used as a roadmap or support for managing a circularity bottom-up transition work. The findings presented in this paper fill a knowledge gap regarding the organisational and managerial work required for circular production. Specifically, this paper addresses challenges related to circular production management, including the gap between strategic targets and operational-driven work. By proposing a comprehensive framework for operationalising circular production principles, this paper offers practical guidance for production companies seeking to transition to circular economy practices.

在可持续生产实践压力越来越大的背景下,本文提出了一个生产公司如何实施循环经济原则的框架。重点是生产组织,以及生产运营如何有助于战略循环变化。先前的研究使用了绿色改善方法来识别与生产车间资源投入产出流相关的环境因素和循环性。然而,本文发现,需要一种更全面的方法,涉及生产组织的各个层面。首先,本文定义了生产运营的循环生产原则,表明这些原则在不同的公司层面上有所不同。运营和车间层面的原则往往更接近生产投入产出系统,而工厂管理层面的原则更侧重于信息共享和内部和外部关系。循环生产原则遵循自下而上的层级组织结构,组织资源的分配随着层级的增加而增加。这项研究揭示了与Likert的管理系统的相似之处,在该系统中,绿色改善活动适合车间级别,但业务发展需要权威开发。其次,本文确定了四个适用于所有公司层面的循环性影响因素。这些因素增强了循环性方面的实用性和实施性,使其适用于公司的各个层面。循环生产原则自下而上升级的框架可以用作管理循环自下而上过渡工作的路线图或支持。本文的研究结果填补了循环生产所需的组织和管理工作方面的知识空白。具体而言,本文解决了与循环生产管理相关的挑战,包括战略目标和运营驱动工作之间的差距。通过提出一个全面的循环生产原则实施框架,本文为寻求向循环经济实践过渡的生产企业提供了实践指导。
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引用次数: 0
In the fight against climate change, did the financial sector cut secular ties with the oil industry or merely camouflage them? 在应对气候变化的斗争中,金融部门是切断了与石油行业的长期联系,还是仅仅掩饰了它们?
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.clpl.2023.100040
Franco Ruzzenenti , Klaus Hubacek , Giampaolo Gabbi

At a time when the links that bind the oil industry – both corporate and state-owned - to finance and governments seemed inextricable and unquestionable, some major changes have occurred that have prompted major financial players and governments to seek a separation strategy. From the Paris Agreement to the change of administration in the United States, the wind suddenly seems to be blowing in the opposite direction, and many banks change course. The UN-convened Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA) is one prominent example of this new trend. However, banks are only one part of this complex and varied landscape of global finance, which, among institutional investors, includes investment funds, hedge funds, mutual funds, insurance funds, pension plans and ETFs (exchange-traded funds). Despite the promise to divest or reduce investments, global finance still holds profound ties with the fossil fuel sector. The high energy prices due to the war in the Ukraine and concerns over energy security are seemingly strengthening these ties. We provide an insight of the complexity of these interlinkages and explain to what extent the domain of public governance is trying to exert (still insufficient) control over the financial sector under the scope of climate mitigation policies.

当石油行业(包括企业和国有)与金融和政府的联系似乎是不可分割和毫无疑问的时候,一些重大变化已经发生,促使主要金融参与者和政府寻求分离战略。从《巴黎协定》到美国政府更迭,风向似乎突然相反,许多银行改变了方向。联合国召集的净零银行联盟就是这一新趋势的一个突出例子。然而,银行只是全球金融复杂多样格局的一部分,在机构投资者中,全球金融包括投资基金、对冲基金、共同基金、保险基金、养老金计划和交易所交易基金。尽管承诺撤资或减少投资,但全球金融仍与化石燃料行业有着深厚的联系。乌克兰战争导致的高能源价格和对能源安全的担忧似乎正在加强这些关系。我们深入了解了这些相互联系的复杂性,并解释了在气候缓解政策的范围内,公共治理领域试图在多大程度上对金融部门施加(仍然不够)控制。
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引用次数: 1
Millionaire spending incompatible with 1.5 °C ambitions 百万富翁的支出与1.5°C的雄心不相容
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.clpl.2022.100027
Stefan Gössling , Andreas Humpe

Much evidence suggests that the wealthiest individuals contribute disproportionally to climate change. Here we study the implications of a continued growth in the number of millionaires for emissions, and its impact on the depletion of the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5 °C (about 400 Gt CO2). To this end, we present a model that extrapolates observed growth in millionaire numbers (1990–2020) and associated changes in emissions to 2050. Our findings suggest that the share of US$2020-millionaires in the world population will grow from 0.7% today to 3.3% in 2050, and cause accumulated emissions of 286 Gt CO2. This is equivalent to 72% of the remaining carbon budget, and significantly reduces the chance of stabilizing climate change at 1.5 °C. Continued growth in emissions at the top makes a low-carbon transition less likely, as the acceleration of energy consumption by the wealthiest is likely beyond the system's capacity to decarbonize. To this end, we question whether policy designs such as progressive taxes targeting the high emitters will be sufficient.

许多证据表明,最富有的人对气候变化的贡献不成比例。在这里,我们研究了百万富翁数量持续增长对排放的影响,以及它对将全球变暖限制在1.5°C(约400 Gt二氧化碳)的剩余碳预算消耗的影响。为此,我们提出了一个模型,该模型推断了观察到的百万富翁人数增长(1990-2020)以及到2050年的相关排放变化。我们的研究结果表明,2020美元的百万富翁在世界人口中的比例将从今天的0.7%增长到2050年的3.3%,并导致286 Gt二氧化碳的累计排放。这相当于剩余碳预算的72%,大大降低了将气候变化稳定在1.5°C的机会。高层排放量的持续增长使低碳转型的可能性降低,因为最富有者的能源消耗加速可能超出了系统的脱碳能力。为此,我们质疑针对高排放者的累进税等政策设计是否足够。
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引用次数: 1
Carbon reduction and energy transition targets of the largest European companies: An empirical study based on institutional theory 欧洲最大公司的碳减排和能源转型目标:基于制度理论的实证研究
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.clpl.2023.100039
Voicu D. Dragomir, Mădălina Dumitru, Florentina Mădălina Perevoznic

Climate change mitigation is at the core of the preoccupations of governments worldwide. The main research gap is that little is known about a powerful tool used by corporations to address climate change, namely carbon reduction and energy transition targets. In the official statistics, companies are designated as the biggest polluters. The purpose of this research is to investigate the targets set by the largest European companies and their achievement status regarding the carbon reduction and energy transition process. Target setting was analyzed by reference to the pressures hypothesized by the institutional theory. To answer the research question, the targets set by the companies included in the STOXX All Europe 100 Index were extracted from various sources. Hypothesis testing was conducted on the existence of mimetic, coercive, and normative isomorphism. A new scoring system was proposed to measure the level of corporate commitment regarding carbon reduction and energy transition targets. The findings suggest that most targets are established for the short and medium term and refer to absolute emissions, some of them already achieved. All forms of isomorphism apply to the selected sample. The research has implications for policy setting, as relaxed targets may lead to greenwashing and prevent countries from meeting international strategic goals.

减缓气候变化是世界各国政府关注的核心问题。主要的研究差距是,人们对企业用来应对气候变化的一个强大工具,即碳减排和能源转型目标知之甚少。在官方统计数据中,企业被列为最大的污染源。本研究的目的是调查欧洲最大公司在碳减排和能源转型过程中设定的目标及其成就状况。目标设定参照制度理论假设的压力进行分析。为了回答这个研究问题,STOXX全欧100指数中的公司设定的目标是从各种来源提取的。对拟态同构、强制同构和规范同构的存在进行了假设检验。提出了一个新的评分系统,以衡量企业在碳减排和能源转型目标方面的承诺水平。研究结果表明,大多数目标都是为中短期制定的,指的是绝对排放量,其中一些已经实现。所有形式的同构都适用于选定的样本。这项研究对政策制定有影响,因为放松目标可能会导致“洗绿”,阻碍各国实现国际战略目标。
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引用次数: 1
Assessing urban carbon metabolism using network analysis across Chinese and European cities 利用中国和欧洲城市的网络分析评估城市碳代谢
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.clpl.2023.100042
Brian D. Fath , Nikita Strelkovskii , Saige Wang , Bin Chen

Urban metabolism uses the idea that cities are resource consuming systems that are supported by flows of energy and materials, and they produce goods and wastes, which generate greenhouse gas emissions both directly and indirectly. This research builds on other recent applications of input-output and ecological network analyses to urban metabolism with added value of comparing in one study both approaches across Europe and China specifically at the city scale. We use input-output (IO) and ecological network analyses (ENA) in a study of the urban metabolism of four cities, Vienna, Austria, Malmö, Sweden, Beijing and Shanghai, China. Based on economic input-output tables and environmental weighting coefficients, we create a connected network of flows between 17 economic sectors that captures the carbon emissions from transactions in a producer orientation. Ecological network analysis is conducted to identify the main sectors contributing to the direct and indirect carbon emissions in the four cities. Our results reveal these to be Transportation, Manufacturing, and Electricity production. Furthermore, we show that final demand in terms of domestic export is the highest contributor in each city, indicating that each city is a producer overall in the countries’ economies generating carbon flows that are consumed elsewhere.

城市新陈代谢利用了这样一种观点,即城市是由能源和材料流支持的资源消耗系统,它们生产商品和废物,直接和间接产生温室气体排放。这项研究建立在投入产出和生态网络分析在城市代谢中的其他最新应用的基础上,在一项研究中比较了欧洲和中国的两种方法,特别是在城市规模上。我们使用投入产出(IO)和生态网络分析(ENA)对奥地利维也纳、瑞典马尔默、中国北京和上海四个城市的城市代谢进行了研究。基于经济投入产出表和环境加权系数,我们在17个经济部门之间创建了一个连通的流动网络,以生产者为导向捕获交易中的碳排放。生态网络分析旨在确定四个城市直接和间接碳排放的主要贡献部门。我们的研究结果显示,这些是运输、制造和电力生产。此外,我们发现,就国内出口而言,最终需求是每个城市的最大贡献者,这表明每个城市都是各国经济中的生产者,产生的碳流被其他地方消耗。
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引用次数: 1
Lignocellulosic biofuels use in the international shipping: The case of soybean trade from Brazil and the U.S. to China 木质纤维素生物燃料在国际航运中的应用——以巴西和美国对中国的大豆贸易为例
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.clpl.2023.100028
Francielle Carvalho , Eduardo Müller-Casseres , Joana Portugal-Pereira , Martin Junginger , Alexandre Szklo

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) committed to reduce by 50% the annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping by 2050 compared to 2008 levels. Future low-carbon fuels use in the maritime transport to curb GHG emissions can increase freight rates and affect trade, especially for commodities transported over long distances. This study performed a case study to evaluate lignocellulosic marine biofuels use in soybean trade routes from Brazil and U.S. to China, in terms of supply volumes, GHG emissions and potential increase on freight costs. This is the first attempt to assess biofuel use in a specific product trade. To this end, two scenarios and three technologies were developed for biofuels availability from 2020 to 2050. Findings reveal that Brazil benefits from higher biofuel supply and four Brazilian biofuel pathways meet total bunker fuel demand in 2050, while U.S. pathways supplied up to 24%. However, emission reduction come at significant cost increase with abatement costs reaching more than US$ 300/tCO2e for some of the Brazilian and U.S. pathways. To reduce this cost gap, market instruments, such as carbon price of at least US$ 100/tCO2e would be required. Nevertheless, fuel cost increase has not resulted in significant cost variation between Brazilian and U.S. vessel routes. Hence, Brazilian trade routes could keep lower freight costs than U.S. even with higher biofuel shares. This indicates that regions capable of supplying low-carbon fuels can become more competitive in their exports in a decarbonized maritime trade.

国际海事组织(IMO)承诺,到2050年,国际航运的年温室气体排放量将比2008年减少50%。未来在海上运输中使用低碳燃料来遏制温室气体排放,可能会提高运费并影响贸易,尤其是长途运输的商品。本研究进行了一项案例研究,以评估从巴西和美国到中国的大豆贸易路线中使用的木质纤维素海洋生物燃料的供应量、温室气体排放量和潜在的运费增长。这是第一次尝试评估生物燃料在特定产品贸易中的使用情况。为此,从2020年到2050年,为生物燃料的可用性开发了两种情景和三种技术。调查结果显示,巴西受益于更高的生物燃料供应,四条巴西生物燃料途径满足了2050年的燃料总需求,而美国途径的供应量高达24%。然而,减排的成本大幅增加,巴西和美国的一些途径的减排成本达到300美元/吨二氧化碳当量以上。为了减少这一成本差距,将需要市场工具,例如至少100美元/tCO2e的碳价格。尽管如此,燃料成本的增加并没有导致巴西和美国船只航线之间的成本发生显著变化。因此,即使生物燃料的份额更高,巴西的贸易路线也可以保持比美国更低的运费。这表明,在脱碳的海上贸易中,有能力供应低碳燃料的地区在出口方面可以变得更有竞争力。
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引用次数: 2
The material footprints of cities and importance of resource use indicators for urban circular economy policies: A comparison of urban metabolisms of Nantes-Saint-Nazaire and Gothenburg 城市物质足迹和资源利用指标对城市循环经济政策的重要性——南特-圣纳泽尔和哥德堡城市代谢的比较
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.clpl.2023.100029
Jean-Baptiste Bahers , Leonardo Rosado

Material consumption has been increasing steadily since the beginning of the 20th century. The urban metabolism field of research is one of the fields that focuses on understanding and measuring this increase at the city level. Many studies have been carried out to calculate the material consumption at the domestic scale. But it is also important to include the non-domestic scale to account for the amount of materials extracted outside the city that were needed along the supply chains to produce the final products consumed in the city. This is referred as the material footprint, which provides a consumption-based indicator of resource use. The objective of this study was to develop a method to measure the material footprint of the cities of Nantes-Saint-Nazaire (France) and Gothenburg (Sweden), both port cities and pioneers in the implementation of urban policies targeting a circular economy. The methodology combines urban material flow analysis with multi-regional input-output database to extend the urban metabolism beyond the administrative boundaries of cities. We then calculated the absolute and per capita material footprints of the two cities and its material disaggregation. We compared these results with domestic material consumption. Further analysis of the urban material footprint was performed by spatializing the flows in the global economy to understand the extent of consumption due to cities. The results show that on average the material footprint is 2.4 times larger than the domestic material consumption in Gothenburg and 1.9 times larger in Nantes-Saint-Nazaire. A decoupling between material footprint and domestic material consumption can be observed, as the material footprints grew much faster than the domestic material consumption. Regarding the material disaggregation, the most significant category is non-metallic minerals, which weighs more than 50% on average of the total material footprint balance sheet and also increased the most. In conclusion, future work should thus better integrate material footprint, as there is a need to better understand the externalization of urban metabolism and to identify what aspects urban circular economy policies should focus on.

自20世纪初以来,材料消耗一直在稳步增长。城市代谢研究领域是专注于在城市层面理解和衡量这种增长的领域之一。已经进行了许多研究来计算国内规模的材料消耗。但同样重要的是,要包括非国内规模,以说明供应链中生产城市消费的最终产品所需的城外提取的材料数量。这被称为材料足迹,它提供了一个基于消耗的资源使用指标。本研究的目的是开发一种测量南特-圣纳泽尔(法国)和哥德堡(瑞典)城市物质足迹的方法,这两个城市都是港口城市,也是实施循环经济城市政策的先驱。该方法将城市物质流分析与多区域投入产出数据库相结合,将城市新陈代谢扩展到城市的行政边界之外。然后,我们计算了这两个城市的绝对和人均物质足迹及其物质分类。我们将这些结果与国内材料消耗进行了比较。通过对全球经济中的流动进行空间化,对城市物质足迹进行了进一步分析,以了解城市的消费程度。结果表明,哥德堡的材料足迹平均是国内材料消耗量的2.4倍,南特-圣纳泽尔的材料足迹是国内材料消费量的1.9倍。可以观察到材料足迹与国内材料消费之间的脱钩,因为材料足迹的增长速度远快于国内材料消费。关于材料分解,最重要的类别是非金属矿物,其重量平均占材料足迹资产负债表总额的50%以上,也是增长最多的。总之,未来的工作应该更好地整合物质足迹,因为有必要更好地理解城市新陈代谢的外部化,并确定城市循环经济政策应该关注哪些方面。
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Cleaner Production Letters
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