Climate Change Ecology最新文献

Micrometeorological variability and climate change affect snake overwintering habitat resilience 微气象变率和气候变化影响蛇越冬生境的恢复力

Climate Change Ecology

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2026.100108

Rachel Y. Fallas , Chantel E. Markle , Paul A. Moore , James M. Waddington

Snakes at northern latitudes can spend over half the year in their overwintering sites to avoid exposure to unsuitable weather conditions. However, with changing weather patterns driven by climate change, we hypothesized that warming winters could reduce the snowpack, thereby diminishing its insulating ability and compromising the stability of overwintering habitat conditions. We collected micrometeorological data from 2018–2024 in 10 peatlands near the northern range limit of the at-risk Eastern Massasauga rattlesnake (Sistrurus catenatus). We quantified suitable overwintering conditions for these peatlands by monitoring the life or resilience zone - the subterranean space above the water table and below the 0°C isotherm that could function as suitable overwintering habitat. We found that winters with warmer temperatures were associated with more favourable resilience zone conditions, while greater snow accumulation was linked to poorer overwintering conditions. However, towards the end of winter in February and March, warmer temperatures were linked to snowmelt, rising water tables, and subsequent resilience zone loss. We also used climate projections under shared socio-economic pathways to model future resilience zone conditions that predicted shallower freezing depths and rising water tables in most peatlands. As a result, some peatlands are expected to support a larger resilience zone while others may face prolonged flooding and reduced quality of overwintering habitat as a result of a diminished resilience zone. Though these variable outcomes suggest that suitable overwintering habitat will remain on the landscape, the implications for habitat currently used by snakes will depend on massasaugas’ tolerance to flooding versus freezing.

北纬地区的蛇可以在它们的越冬地点度过半年以上的时间，以避免暴露在不适宜的天气条件下。然而，随着气候变化导致的天气模式的变化，我们假设暖冬会减少积雪，从而降低其绝缘能力，损害越冬栖息地条件的稳定性。我们在10个泥炭地收集了2018-2024年的微气象数据，这些泥炭地靠近濒临灭绝的东马萨索加响尾蛇（Sistrurus catenatus）的北部范围。我们通过监测生命或恢复带，量化了这些泥炭地的适宜越冬条件——地下空间高于地下水位，低于0°C等温线，可以作为适宜的越冬栖息地。我们发现，气温较高的冬季与更有利的恢复带条件有关，而更多的积雪与较差的越冬条件有关。然而，在冬季即将结束的2月和3月，气温升高与融雪、地下水位上升以及随后的恢复带丧失有关。我们还使用共享社会经济路径下的气候预测来模拟未来恢复带条件，预测大多数泥炭地的冻结深度将变浅，地下水位将上升。因此，一些泥炭地预计将支持一个更大的恢复带，而另一些泥炭地可能面临长期的洪水，并且由于恢复带的减少而导致越冬栖息地的质量下降。尽管这些不同的结果表明，适合的越冬栖息地将保留在景观上，但对蛇目前使用的栖息地的影响将取决于马萨索加对洪水和冰冻的耐受性。

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引用次数: 0

Long-term climatic variables effects on reproductive phenology of wild mouflon in the Zagros mountains 长期气候变量对扎格罗斯山区野生麋鹿繁殖物候的影响

Climate Change Ecology

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100107

Masoud Kordi , Farid Salmanpour , Peyman Valizadeh , Faraham Ahmadzadeh

Climate change poses a critical global threat, reshaping biodiversity through alterations in species’ morphology, behavior, and distribution. Among the earliest and most sensitive biological responses are shifts in reproductive phenology, which have profound implications for species survival and ecosystem function. Large mammals such as mouflon (Ovis gmelini) are particularly vulnerable due to their ecological importance and limited adaptive capacity, and in Iran's climate-sensitive Zagros Mountains, these populations face additional pressures from habitat loss and poaching, while long-term ecological insights remain scarce. Leveraging over two decades of reproductive and meteorological data from five core habitats, this study quantifies climate-driven shifts in mating and lambing timing using generalized linear mixed models, which identified temperature as the dominant driver. Specifically, a 1 °C increase from May to November advanced mating by ∼0.8 days, and a 1 °C rise during December–April advanced lambing by ∼1.4 days, with spatial variation evident between the warmest site, Ghamishloo, and the coolest site, Tange Sayad. These findings demonstrate the pronounced sensitivity of Zagros mouflon reproductive cycles to temperature, highlighting reproductive phenology as a robust bioindicator of environmental change. Although no significant overall temporal shifts were detected across the Zagros region, local warming corresponded with measurable shifts in mating timing, reflecting spatial heterogeneity in climate effects. This work bridges critical knowledge gaps in ungulate ecology and provides quantitative evidence to inform conservation strategies for safeguarding biodiversity in Iran’s montane ecosystems under ongoing climate change.

气候变化对全球构成重大威胁，通过改变物种形态、行为和分布重塑生物多样性。在最早和最敏感的生物反应中，生殖物候的变化对物种生存和生态系统功能具有深远的影响。由于其生态重要性和有限的适应能力，mouflon （Ovis gmelini）等大型哺乳动物特别脆弱，在伊朗气候敏感的扎格罗斯山脉，这些种群面临栖息地丧失和偷猎的额外压力，而长期的生态见解仍然缺乏。利用来自五个核心栖息地的20多年的生殖和气象数据，本研究使用广义线性混合模型量化了气候驱动的交配和产羔时间变化，该模型将温度确定为主要驱动因素。具体来说，从5月到11月，温度升高1°C会使交配提前0.8天，而在12月至4月，温度升高1°C会使产羔提前1.4天，在最温暖的地点Ghamishloo和最冷的地点Tange Sayad之间存在明显的空间差异。这些发现证明了扎格罗斯mouflon的生殖周期对温度的明显敏感性，强调了生殖物候是环境变化的一个强有力的生物指标。虽然在整个扎格罗斯地区没有发现明显的总体时间变化，但局部变暖与可测量的交配时间变化相对应，反映了气候影响的空间异质性。这项工作弥补了有蹄类生态学的关键知识空白，并为在持续气候变化下保护伊朗山地生态系统生物多样性的保护战略提供了定量证据。

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引用次数: 0

Nesting at the edge: breeding behavior and nest microclimate of the Glacier Finch (Idiopsar speculifer) on the Quelccaya ice cap, Southeastern Peru 边缘筑巢：秘鲁东南部魁尔卡亚冰冠上冰川雀（Idiopsar speculifer）的繁殖行为和巢小气候

Climate Change Ecology

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100106

Carlos Lazo , Renny Daniel Diaz , Alexis Díaz , Gimi Cristian Mamani , Miguel Angel Luza-Victorio , Douglas R. Hardy

High‐elevation glacierized environments pose extreme nesting challenges for birds, yet the Glacier Finch (Idiopsar speculifer) regularly nests inside ice cavities, but data on active nests and their microclimates remain scarce. We documented these aspects across two breeding seasons (2024–2025) in three sectors on the western side of the Quelccaya Ice Cap, southeastern Peru, above 5300 m asl. We characterized nest structure and composition, parental behavior, and the microclimate within glacier cavities used as nesting sites. We located six nests (four abandoned and two active) and described the structure and composition of three only once they were inactive (one abandoned and the two formerly active). Nests were open-cup structures composed primarily of two high-Andean grass species (Deschampsia ovata and Cinnagrostis nitidula). The active nests were monitored with trail cameras and microclimate sensors. One nest was found in April 2024 and the other in February 2025, the latter representing the earliest breeding record to date, occurring four days before the previously proposed egg-laying period, and the first documented nest built on rock rather than directly on ice. Daily biparental care was observed at one nest, with 8–9 visits per day and no nocturnal activity, whereas the second nest experienced predation by an Andean fox (Lycalopex culpaeus). Glacier cavities acted as thermal buffers, maintaining near-freezing temperatures (∼0 °C), high relative humidity (90–100 %), and low evaporation rates (0.2 kg m⁻² h⁻¹), providing more stable conditions than outside the cavity. These findings enhance understanding of reproduction in extreme glacierized habitats.

高海拔冰川环境对鸟类的筑巢构成了极端的挑战，然而冰川雀（Idiopsar speculifer）经常在冰洞内筑巢，但关于活跃巢穴及其小气候的数据仍然很少。我们在秘鲁东南部海拔5300米以上的奎尔卡亚冰冠西侧的三个区域记录了两个繁殖季节（2024-2025）的这些方面。我们描述了巢的结构和组成，父母的行为，以及作为筑巢地点的冰川洞内的小气候。我们定位了6个巢穴（4个被遗弃，2个活跃），并描述了其中3个巢穴的结构和组成，其中3个巢穴曾经是不活跃的（1个被遗弃，2个曾经活跃）。巢为开杯状结构，主要由两种高安第斯禾草（Deschampsia ovata和Cinnagrostis nitidula）组成。利用跟踪摄像机和微气候传感器对活动巢进行监测。一个鸟巢是在2024年4月发现的，另一个是在2025年2月发现的，后者代表了迄今为止最早的繁殖记录，比之前提出的产卵期早了四天，也是第一个有记录的建在岩石上而不是直接建在冰上的鸟巢。在一个巢中观察到双亲每天照顾，每天8-9次，没有夜间活动，而第二个巢则由安第斯狐狸（Lycalopex culpaeus）捕食。冰川洞穴作为热缓冲，保持接近冰点的温度（~ 0°C），高相对湿度（90 - 100%）和低蒸发率（0.2 kg m - 2 h - 1），提供比洞穴外更稳定的条件。这些发现加强了对极端冰川化栖息地繁殖的理解。

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引用次数: 0

Host plant elevation shifts and population declines in an island-endemic butterfly 岛上特有蝴蝶的寄主植物海拔变化和种群下降

Climate Change Ecology

Pub Date : 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100105

Sarah R. Steele Cabrera , Robin Sarabia , Erica H. Henry , Chad T. Anderson , Jaret C. Daniels

Coastal and island ecosystems are disproportionately vulnerable to sea level rise and other impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Using monitoring data collected between 2013 and 2024, we explore habitat changes, population dynamics, and phenology of an endemic butterfly in the Florida Keys, USA, Klots' sawgrass skipper (Euphyes pilatka klotsi. Range-wide surveys of the butterfly were conducted using Distance sampling along transects to repeatedly estimate population size. Host plant and shrub abundance were estimated along these transects in 2013 and 2021. Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were conducted to examine change in plant abundance between our two sampling periods and generalized least square regression models were constructed to understand the relationship between host plant abundance and elevation. Our results show that the butterfly's sole host plant is decreasing in abundance at lower elevations. We also find declines in butterfly population size. Despite these declines, we find that Klots' sawgrass skipper's range has not contracted significantly over the study period.

This study demonstrates that monitoring a single taxon and its host plant is useful for monitoring this rare freshwater ecosystem, which is vital for the continued survival of a suite of rare and endemic species found in the Florida Keys. Projections of near-future sea level rise indicate that most or all of this habitat will be lost within several decades; the continued study of low-lying islands is critical to gain insight into the global phenomenon of sea level rise.

沿海和岛屿生态系统尤其容易受到海平面上升和人为气候变化的其他影响的影响。利用2013年至2024年的监测数据，研究了美国佛罗里达群岛特有蝴蝶Klots' sawgrass skipper （Euphyes pilatka klotsi）的栖息地变化、种群动态和物候特征。对蝴蝶进行了广泛的调查，沿样带进行了距离采样，以反复估计种群大小。在2013年和2021年对这些样带的寄主植物和灌木丰度进行了估算。采用Wilcoxon符号秩检验分析了两个采样周期内植物丰度的变化，并建立了广义最小二乘回归模型来了解寄主植物丰度与海拔的关系。我们的研究结果表明，在低海拔地区，蝴蝶的唯一寄主植物的丰度正在减少。我们还发现蝴蝶种群规模在下降。尽管这些下降，我们发现Klots的锯草跳的范围在研究期间并没有明显收缩。这项研究表明，监测单个分类单元及其寄主植物对监测这种稀有的淡水生态系统是有用的，这对佛罗里达群岛发现的一系列稀有和特有物种的持续生存至关重要。对近期海平面上升的预测表明，这些栖息地的大部分或全部将在几十年内消失；对低洼岛屿的持续研究对于深入了解全球海平面上升现象至关重要。

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引用次数: 0

Comparison of ambient temperature variations at two elevations of Mount Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, 2016–2017 in relation to the El Niño event 2016-2017年马来西亚婆罗洲沙巴州基纳巴卢山两个海拔高度与El Niño事件的环境温度变化比较

Climate Change Ecology

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100102

Florina Anthony , Luiza Majuakim , Monica Suleiman , Kanehiro Kitayama , Thor-Seng Liew

Research into the responses of organisms to climate change relies on macroclimatic models based on the assumption that species respond primarily to large-scale climate regimes. However, fine-scale climate variation is crucial, especially for short-range organisms in tropical mountains, where habitat and microclimatic heterogeneity are high. This study presents temperature data from weather stations in open areas and from data loggers under tree canopies on Mount Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, recorded between 20 January 2016 and 15 June 2017, across an elevation gradient from 2600 m to 3300 m. We also recorded temperature variables during January to June 2016 and after the El Niño event (January to June 2017). Our results show that weather station and under-canopy records displayed broadly similar temperature patterns at corresponding elevations. The 2016 El Niño event had a significant warming effect, increasing the mean daily temperature by an average of 0.53–0.67 °C across our study sites (p < 0.001) compared to the non-El Niño year of 2017. Linear Mixed-Effects models revealed a significant interaction between year and elevation: El Niño amplified daily maximum temperatures at higher elevations but reduced daily minimum temperatures. The microclimatic data collected in this study can be used as a basis for future studies and allow for quantitative, detailed comparisons.

生物对气候变化的响应研究依赖于基于物种主要对大尺度气候制度作出反应的假设的宏观气候模型。然而，精细尺度的气候变化是至关重要的，特别是对于热带山区的短程生物，那里的栖息地和小气候异质性很高。本研究提供了2016年1月20日至2017年6月15日期间马来西亚婆罗洲沙巴州基纳巴卢山开放地区气象站和树冠下数据记录器记录的温度数据，海拔梯度从2600米到3300米。我们还记录了2016年1月至6月和El Niño事件（2017年1月至6月）之后的温度变量。结果表明，气象站和冠下记录在相应的海拔高度显示出大致相似的温度模式。2016年El Niño事件具有显著的变暖效应，与2017年未发生El Niño事件的年份相比，我们研究地点的平均日气温平均增加了0.53-0.67°C （p < 0.001）。线性混合效应模型揭示了年份和海拔之间的显著相互作用：El Niño放大了高海拔地区的日最高气温，但降低了日最低气温。本研究收集的小气候数据可作为未来研究的基础，并可进行定量、详细的比较。

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引用次数: 0

Climate Change Ecology

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100100

Orlando Lam-Gordillo, Andrew M. Lohrer

Elevated anthropogenic CO₂ emissions are warming the planet, although our understanding of how climate-related changes manifest locally remains poor. In estuaries, rising air and sea surface temperatures, increased sediment loading, and climate-related changes (e.g., cyclones, heatwaves, droughts) can collectively influence tidal flat biota and the key ecosystem functions they mediate. Here, we used long-term data from six sites in a New Zealand estuary (all sampled quarterly for 22 years) to evaluate tidal flat macroinvertebrate changes and responses of five functional diversity metrics (i.e., Functional Richness, Evenness, Dispersion, Divergence, and Redundancy) to shifting environmental conditions. Sea surface temperature (satellite SST records), sediment organic matter content (OM), and bed sediment muddiness all increased significantly at all sites from 2000 to 2022. The individual effects of these environmental drivers on functional diversity metrics were mixed, but net trends in Functional Richness and Functional Redundancy indicated increasing levels of community resilience over time. Heat spikes can cause thermal stress, but gradual warming may elevate metabolic rates and accelerate reactions such as photosynthesis. The positive effects on increased food supply (OM) could have outweighed negative influences of increasing mud, generating the net trends in our data. Overall, our research suggests that some estuarine soft-sediment macroinvertebrate communities, based on the analysis of functional diversity metrics, are becoming increasingly resilient and adaptable, rather than increasingly depauperate and functionally impacted, as climate change strengthens.

尽管我们对与气候相关的变化如何在局部表现的了解仍然很少，但人为二氧化碳排放量的增加正在使地球变暖。在河口，空气和海面温度上升、沉积物负荷增加以及与气候有关的变化（如旋风、热浪、干旱）可共同影响潮滩生物群及其介导的关键生态系统功能。在这里，我们使用了来自新西兰河口6个地点的长期数据（22年来每季度取样一次）来评估潮滩大型无脊椎动物的变化和5个功能多样性指标（即功能丰富度、均匀度、分散度、发散度和冗余度）对变化的环境条件的响应。海表温度（卫星海温记录）、沉积物有机质含量（OM）和底泥浊度在2000 - 2022年间均显著增加。这些环境驱动因素对功能多样性指标的个体影响是混合的，但功能丰富度和功能冗余度的净趋势表明，随着时间的推移，群落恢复能力水平不断提高。高温峰值会引起热应激，但逐渐变暖可能会提高代谢率，加速光合作用等反应。增加粮食供应（OM）的积极影响可能超过泥浆增加的负面影响，从而产生我们数据中的净趋势。总体而言，我们的研究表明，基于功能多样性指标的分析，随着气候变化的加剧，一些河口软沉积大型无脊椎动物群落正变得越来越有弹性和适应性，而不是越来越缺乏和功能上的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Climatological effects on survival, recruitment, and possible extirpation of a Sierra Nevada anuran 气候对内华达山脉羚羊生存、繁殖和可能灭绝的影响

Climate Change Ecology

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100099

Brian J. Halstead , Patrick M. Kleeman , Jonathan P. Rose , Robert L. Grasso , Gary M. Fellers

The drivers of population dynamics are a primary interest of ecologists, and predicting the consequences of climate variability on wildlife populations benefits from an understanding of how weather causes variation in the vital rates of populations. Given recent and projected extremes in annual precipitation in the Sierra Nevada of California, USA, including two severe droughts, we sought to examine the role of snowpack and summer water availability on the population dynamics and potential extirpation of a meadow population of the U.S. Endangered Sierra Nevada yellow-legged frog (Rana sierrae) using a long-term capture-mark-recapture dataset. We found that snowpack and summer water availability affected both survival and recruitment probabilities. Although these variables only explained approximately 17 % of the annual variation in adult survival, they explained 81 % of the variation in recruitment into the adult population. Following two severe, extended droughts and a nearby wildfire, the population consisted of 20 or fewer individuals with >95 % certainty, and 10 or fewer individuals with 64 % certainty. If realized, increased precipitation volatility and extended droughts likely present an additional threat to some meadow populations of this endangered frog.

种群动态的驱动因素是生态学家的主要兴趣，预测气候变化对野生动物种群的影响得益于了解天气如何导致种群动态率的变化。考虑到美国加利福尼亚州内华达山脉最近和预计的极端年降水，包括两次严重干旱，我们试图利用长期捕获-标记-再捕获数据集，研究积雪和夏季水分供应对美国濒危内华达山脉黄腿蛙（Rana sierrae）草甸种群动态和潜在灭绝的作用。我们发现，积雪和夏季水分供应对生存和招募概率都有影响。虽然这些变量只解释了大约17%的成年生存年变化，但它们解释了81%的成年人口招募变化。在经历了两次严重的长期干旱和附近的野火之后，种群数量由20个或更少的个体组成，确定性为95%，10个或更少的个体组成，确定性为64%。如果实现，降水波动的增加和干旱的延长可能会给这种濒危青蛙的一些草地种群带来额外的威胁。

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引用次数: 0

Rights of nature as a response to the climate crisis and discourses on sustainability 自然权利作为对气候危机和可持续性话语的回应

Climate Change Ecology

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100101

Diana Carolina Sánchez-Zapata , María Fernanda Cárdenas

This article analyzes the emergence of the category of nature as a subject of rights and of the rights of Nature as a proposal for the relationship between human beings and the environment in the context of climate crisis. It considers the discourses on sustainability present at different scales (global, within supranational organizations; national, within various states; and regional or local), which have been used as a basis for the recognition of rights to nature. It is evident, through a multi-scale analysis that the rights of Nature emerge as a novel alternative to the structural causes of climate change associated with the relationships between nature and culture; however, there are discursive differences between scales regarding the concept of sustainability. The analysis in specific territorial contexts allows us to evidence sustainability as a language in action that is transformed to enable the implementation of the rights of Nature. Based on this analysis, some proposals are made, taking into consideration the territorial contexts and community experiences that show the importance of recognizing the visions on sustainability of peoples and ethnic communities to implement the rights of Nature.

本文分析了在气候危机背景下，自然作为权利主体范畴的出现，以及自然权利作为人与环境关系的建议。它考虑了在不同规模（全球，在超国家组织内；国家，在不同国家内；以及区域或地方）存在的关于可持续性的论述，这些论述被用作承认自然权利的基础。很明显，通过多尺度分析，自然权利成为与自然与文化之间关系相关的气候变化结构性原因的一种新的替代方案；然而，关于可持续性概念的量表之间存在话语差异。在特定地域背景下的分析使我们能够证明可持续性作为一种行动语言，经过转变，能够实现自然权利。在此分析的基础上，考虑到地域背景和社区经验，提出了一些建议，表明认识到人民和民族社区的可持续性愿景对于实现自然权利的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Antagonistic climate-land use change interactions shape future distributions of a temperate snake at the northern range limit 对抗性气候-土地利用变化的相互作用塑造了温带蛇在北部范围极限的未来分布

Climate Change Ecology

Pub Date : 2025-11-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100103

Andrea Gómez-Sánchez, Stephen C. Lougheed

Climate change presents a substantial threat to biodiversity, driving shifts in species distributions both independently and through interactions with land use change. In Canada, 77 % of reptile species are considered at risk, especially near the Canada-U.S. border, where most species are at the northern range limit and where land use changes have been most pronounced. Climate change is expected to impact reptiles in this region, including snakes; however, how it will interact with land use change to affect snake distributions remains uncertain. Here, we used ensemble models, derived from three different SDM models, to investigate the potential effects of climate-land cover/use interactions on the future distribution of range-edge populations of a large threatened colubrid in Canada, Gray ratsnakes (Pantherophis spiloides). We showed climate and land cover/use change have an antagonistic effect on future environmental suitability, with greater net gains in suitability from climate alone (37–85 %) compared to gains from the combined model (35–81 %). Our study revealed that climate change may benefit temperate snakes, like gray ratsnakes, leading to a northward range-edge shift, but land use change may prevent colonization of new areas and persistence in areas of their current range. Our models showed that the Frontenac Arch is projected to be a key region for gray ratsnake persistence under climate change as it will mostly remain suitable due to the forest cover. These findings highlight the need for protection and restoration of habitat to help mitigate the negative effects of climate change for ratsnakes and many other similar species in Canada.

气候变化对生物多样性构成重大威胁，既可以独立地也可以通过与土地利用变化的相互作用推动物种分布的变化。在加拿大，77%的爬行动物物种被认为处于危险之中，特别是在加拿大-美国附近。大多数物种都在北部范围的边界，也是土地利用变化最明显的地方。气候变化预计会影响该地区的爬行动物，包括蛇；然而，它将如何与土地利用变化相互作用以影响蛇的分布仍然不确定。在这里，我们使用来自三种不同SDM模型的集合模型来研究气候-土地覆盖/利用相互作用对加拿大一种大型濒危杂交物种灰鼠蛇（Pantherophis spiloides）未来边缘种群分布的潜在影响。研究表明，气候和土地覆盖/利用变化对未来的环境适宜性具有拮抗作用，与综合模式的收益（35 - 81%）相比，气候单独带来的适宜性净收益（37 - 85%）更大。我们的研究表明，气候变化可能有利于温带蛇，如灰鼠蛇，导致向北的范围边缘移动，但土地利用变化可能会阻止新地区的殖民化和在现有范围内的持续存在。我们的模型表明，由于森林覆盖，Frontenac拱门预计将成为气候变化下灰色rattsnake持续存在的关键区域，因为它大部分仍然适合。这些发现强调了保护和恢复栖息地的必要性，以帮助减轻气候变化对加拿大鼠蛇和许多其他类似物种的负面影响。

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引用次数: 0

Modelling the future distribution of Schistosoma-transmitting snails in South Africa using climate projections 利用气候预测模拟传播血吸虫的蜗牛在南非的未来分布

Climate Change Ecology

Pub Date : 2025-07-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecochg.2025.100098

Nisa Ayob , Dirk P Cilliers , Roelof P Burger , Monray D Belelie , Ncobile C Nkosi , Lizaan de Necker

Schistosomiasis is a disease caused by trematode worms and transmitted through specific gastropod snails, namely Bulinus africanus, Bulinus globosus, and Biomphalaria pfeifferi. The distribution of Schistosoma species is influenced by climate factors such as temperature and rainfall. Understanding the impact of climate change on these factors is crucial for predicting changes in schistosomiasis transmission. This study employed bioclimatic variables to forecast the future distribution of these snail species in South Africa, utilising three ecological models alongside three General Circulation Models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for the periods 2040–2070 and 2070–2100. The predicted impacts of climate change on Schistosoma-transmitting snails in South Africa indicate a shift in habitat suitability for these intermediate hosts. Bulinus africanus may see a reduction in habitats across several provinces, but could expand into the southwest coast and central Free State. Biomphalaria pfeifferi is expected to encounter decreased suitability in the eastern regions of South Africa but may find new habitats in the Free State, Northern Cape, and western areas. Bulinus globosus is likely to face habitat declines but could adapt to suitable climates in the Free State and KwaZulu-Natal regions. These shifts suggest that warming climates may create new habitats for these snail species at higher elevations and cooler areas. This study established a foundational framework for subsequent research at the provincial and municipal levels. This can be a foundation for developing strategies to prevent transmission and range expansion of schistosomiasis into previously unaffected areas.

血吸虫病是一种由吸虫引起的疾病，并通过特定的腹足类蜗牛，即非洲布林纳斯、全球布林纳斯和费费布林纳斯传播。血吸虫的分布受气温、降雨等气候因素的影响。了解气候变化对这些因素的影响对于预测血吸虫病传播的变化至关重要。在2040-2070年和2070-2100年两种排放情景（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下，利用3个生态模型和3个大气环流模型（GCMs），利用生物气候变量预测南非这些蜗牛物种的未来分布。气候变化对南非传播血吸虫的蜗牛的预测影响表明，这些中间宿主的栖息地适宜性发生了变化。非洲布林纳斯可能会在几个省的栖息地减少，但可能会扩展到西南海岸和自由邦中部。普费费生物phalaria pfeifferi在南非东部地区的适宜性预计会下降，但可能会在自由邦、北开普省和西部地区找到新的栖息地。扁蝽可能面临栖息地减少的问题，但可以适应自由州和夸祖鲁-纳塔尔省的适宜气候。这些变化表明，气候变暖可能会在海拔较高和较冷的地区为这些蜗牛物种创造新的栖息地。本研究为省、市后续研究奠定了基础框架。这可以作为制定战略的基础，以防止血吸虫病传播和范围扩大到以前未受影响的地区。

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