Climate Change Ecology最新文献

Understanding species responses to climatic change over extended timescales helps elucidate past and future extinction events. Amphibians are one of the most environmentally sensitive groups and yet showed high resilience to the Cretaceous-Paleogene (KPg) mass extinction, an event marked by sudden cooling and drought. To understand this past resilience and the associated filter mechanisms, we investigated the evolutionary history of key survival traits (body size and lifestyle) and explored climate-driven body-size selectivity of modern anuran assemblages. We found clear environment constraints on present-day anurans, where extreme temperatures and high seasonality filter against extreme-sized species. Our fossil-extant phylogenetic reconstruction reveals that anuran assemblages surrounding the KPg were mostly medium-sized species but large anuran species went extinct at the KPg, which is consistent with the uneven size-resilience to climate across modern anurans. Additionally, we found that cooling periods were marked by accelerated body-size diversification in anurans, and we inferred a close association between the evolution of arboreal frogs and angiosperms. Using the climate resilience of modern species as baselines, we estimate that future climate change will impact tropical anurans the most, where up to ∼500 species may face increased climate-related extinction pressure by 2100. Here we show that size-extinction selectivity in anurans is consistent over time and space, with extreme climate conditions filtering out larger and smaller species, conditions of which are likely to become increasingly prevalent in the future.

The response of biotic interactions to changes in temperature will play a large role in determining the impact of climate change on ecological communities. In particular, how warming alters predator-prey interactions will influence population stability, food web connectivity, and the movement of energy across trophic levels. The functional response relates predator foraging rates to prey availability, and it is often predicted to increase monotonically with temperature, at least within the limits of predator function. However, some studies suggest that functional responses peak and then decline, and such a difference has critical implications for the effect of warming on ecological communities. Here we investigate the effect of temperature on the functional response of wolf spiders (Schizocosa saltatrix) foraging on midges. Our results clearly support a unimodal response of the functional response, with peak foraging occurring at normal daytime temperatures for the area. Thus, daytime active spiders might experience a decline in foraging with warming, while night active spiders might experience an increase in foraging. Together with previous work, our study strongly suggests that the widespread assumption of a monotonic increase in foraging with warming is not warranted.

Climate change is altering the distribution of wildlife across the globe. These distributional changes, paired with the environmental and vegetative shifts that spurred them, are likely to change co-occurrence patterns and interspecific interactions of native and invasive wildlife. A mesocosm of global change, we worked on Sanibel Island; a low-lying ∼4,900 ha barrier island in southwestern Florida, USA. Sanibel Island possessed a freshwater interior lined with mangrove forests to the north. Sanibel was ∼50% developed, ∼50% conserved, hydrologically degraded, shrub-encroached, and susceptible to inundation by sea-level rise. We used a Bayesian multispecies occupancy modeling approach to investigate how the effects of climate change might change co-occurrence patterns of 2 native island-endemic species (Sanibel Island rice rat [Oryzomys palustris sanibeli]; insular hispid cotton rat [Sigmodon hispidus insulicola]) and 1 exotic invasive species (black rat [Rattus rattus]). We found that co-occurrence is likely to increase between cotton rats and black rats with unknown impacts on interspecific interactions. We also found that climate change may threaten the persistence of cotton rats and black rats on Sanibel Island, but not rice rats so long as mangrove forests persist. Broadly our research demonstrates the importance of investigating interactions between climate change and co-occurrence when assessing contemporary and future wildlife distributions.

Climate change may induce mismatches between wildlife reproductive phenology and temporal occurrence of resources necessary for reproductive success. Verifying and elucidating the causal mechanisms behind potential mismatches requires large-scale, longer-duration data. We used eastern wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) nesting data collected across the southeastern U.S. over eight years to investigate potential climatic drivers of variation in nest initiation dates. We investigated climactic relationships with two datasets, one inclusive of successful and unsuccessful nests (full dataset) and another of just successful nests (successfully hatched dataset), to determine whether successfully hatched nests responded differently to weather changes than all nests did. In the full dataset, each 10 cm increase in January precipitation was associated with nesting occurring 0.46–0.66 days earlier, and each 10 cm increase in precipitation during the 30 days preceding nesting was associated with nesting occurring 0.17–0.21 days later. In the successfully hatched dataset, a 10 cm increase in March precipitation was associated with nesting occurring 0.67–0.74 days earlier, and an increase of one unit of variation in February maximum temperature was associated with nesting occurring 0.02 days later. We combined the results of these modeled relationships with multiple climate scenarios to understand potential implications of future climate change on wild turkey nesting phenology; results indicated that mean nest initiation date is projected to change by <0.1 day by 2040–2060. Wild turkey nesting phenology did not track changes in spring green-up timing, which could result in phenological mismatch between the timing of nesting and the availability of resources critical for successful reproduction.

Migratory bird trajectories are the result of their own speed and direction in combination with wind speed and direction. Several studies have focused on the interplay between bird migration and general wind patterns, however, the majority of them did not take into account climate change and used a small number of individuals. By integrating tracking data from two populations of Arctic terns (n = 72) with ERA5 and Earth System Model (ESM) wind data, we were able to study the current conditions and the potential effects of climate change on them.

The Svalbard birds experienced wind support values around 3 m/s with a relatively low variability, while the Dutch population experienced almost no wind support with a greater variability. Svalbard terns exhibited better adjustment of their flyways to daily and annually varying wind conditions, and responded to crosswinds by drifting over extended periods/regions (median Drift Ratio ± standard deviation: 0.51 ± 0.18) while the Dutch population mostly compensated (0 ± 0.31). We suggest that the Svalbard birds will be able to adapt their flyways to future Atlantic Ocean wind pattern changes, while we are uncertain whether the Dutch population can keep compensating for future changes or not.

We examine the robustness of our results by using a selection of ESMs and by including metrics for several uncertainty sources (ESMs, wind variability, tracking method etc.). This study highlights the importance of wind as a flyway-shaping factor and points out the possibility for different responses to wind by different populations of the same species, in different Ocean regions and seasons.

Desert regions are becoming both warmer and more arid, potentially challenging the ability of even arid-adapted species to exist within their current ranges. Here we analyzed the sensitivity of the common chuckwalla, Sauromalus ater, a vegetarian lizard restricted to western North America's warm deserts, to predicted increases in temperature and aridity. We also assessed the response by their primary food plants to these changing conditions. Our study area included both east-west and elevational aridity gradients. At the eastern, most arid end of this gradient the highest population densities of chuckwallas were restricted to the top elevation category, 600-699 m. In the middle of the east-west gradient, higher chuckwalla densities occurred at elevation categories of 400-599 m and above. At the western, least arid end of the gradient, high chuckwalla densities occurred from elevation categories beginning at 200 m. Their food plants mirrored that distribution trend. We also constructed independent habitat models to predict current and future suitable ranges for both the lizards and their food plants. Potential climate refugia exist where modeled current and predicted future ranges overlap. Our empirical elevation data for where chuckwallas and their food plants exist at higher densities mirrored the climate refugia predicted by our models; current higher density populations largely already reside in putative climate refugia. Chuckwallas residing below these refugia will find conditions increasingly challenging, and all populations will need to shift to higher elevations if future levels of aridity exceed the values used in our models.

Climate forecasts suggest the Great Plains of North America have increased risk of droughts during global warming. Environmental factors have potential to influence turtle populations in aquatic habitats through temperature-dependent sex determination and influences on food availability. Long-term studies are critical to evaluate the influence of climatic variation on turtles. We used a 12-year set of mark-recapture data collected from painted turtles (Chrysemys picta, n = 162) in a pond in Keith County, Nebraska during 2005–2016 to assess variation in sex ratio and growth dynamics. Southwest Nebraska experienced two periods of drought during our study (Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index [PHDI] range: -4.5 to 6.7). Despite a relatively stable depth of water in our study pond, the proportion of males in the second size class (carapace length 95–130 mm) decreased when the PHDI during their incubation period indicated hotter, drier conditions. Discrete, mean annual growth (G) of females >30 mm below asymptotic carapace length was greater during wetter years (G_non-drought = 15.0, G_drought = 11.5), and a drought coefficient (D) in our modified von Bertalanffy model reflected reduced growth of both males (D = -0.0226) and females (D = -0.0393) during drought years. Our long-term research provides context to the complexity by which turtle species may respond to changes in long-term climate conditions.

In many rural East African areas, anti-malarial plants are commonly used as first-line treatment against malaria. However, spatially explicit information about the future availability of anti-malarial plant species and its relation to future suitable habitat for malaria vectors is limited. In this study we 1) model the distribution of anti-malarial plant and malaria vector species and assess the drivers of their distributions taking the example of the Samburu dryland in Kenya, 2) map the modeled overlap in this area, 3) assess the impact of future climate change on anti-malarial plant and malaria vector species and 4) report their future overlaps. Our results show that mean temperature of warmest quarter, precipitation of wettest quarter and mean temperature of coldest quarter were the most important environmental variables that affected the distribution of anti-malarial species. The effects of climate change will be detrimental, since most areas will witness huge losses in anti-malarial species habitat while only a few gained or remained stable under both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios by 2050s and 2070s. According to most of our scenarios, more than half of the anti-malarial species will become threatened by 2050s and 2070s. A comparison between distribution patterns of future anti-malarial species richness and malaria vector species suitable habitat suggests that the former will decrease considerably while the later will increase. Because the availability of anti-malarial species will decrease in the areas affected by malaria vectors, geographically targeted conservation strategies and further control measures against malaria vectors are all the more important.

The joint effects of climate change and landscape fragmentation to the genetic viability of isolated populations has barely been addressed for the Atlantic Forest fauna. Therefore, this work explored the potential habitat suitability for the southern muriqui (Brachyteles arachnoides), by modeling climate change, landscape fragmentation, and genetic diversity loss of the species. Maxent was used to model its potential distribution in 2050, with two climate change scenarios. A land use and land cover change model was applied to describe current and future forest fragmentation patterns, and a Population and Habitat Viability Analysis (PHVA) was used to describe the retention of genetic diversity of the southern muriqui. Although PHVA modeling provided a low risk of extinction of the southern muriqui, climate change and fragmentation could result in the loss of >65% of the suitable forest patches, and reduce the habitat suitability to only 11% of the potential distribution area, which could lead to future genetic diversity loss and decreased capacity of self-sustained populations. In both climate change scenarios, the suitable areas for the southern muriqui in Paraná and Rio de Janeiro states will decrease more drastically. Areas where the primate occurs in the interior of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states will disappear or be climatically disconnected from the core potential habitat. Alike preventing further deforestation, Atlantic Forest restoration actions are needed to connect the viable populations for compensating the projected land use and climate change impacts to the long term persistence of the southern muriqui.