Global Environmental Change Advances最新文献

{"title":"The green paradox: The climate, environmental, and sustainability implications of artificial intelligence","authors":"Apoorva Chouksey ,&nbsp;Aneha K. Rajan ,&nbsp;Vikas Gurjar ,&nbsp;Rajnarayan Tiwari ,&nbsp;Pradyumna Kumar Mishra","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100029","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100029","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Artificial intelligence (AI), has become instrumental in advancing scientific discovery, industry, and environmental stewardship. They are driving advances in disease diagnosis, renewable energy management, climate prediction, and biodiversity monitoring. Nevertheless, this accelerating rate of AI developments, increased environmental pressures. The rapid creation of larger models and data-centre based infrastructure has placed extreme demands upon critical inputs associated with electricity, fresh water, limited supply of minerals, and depletion of electronic hardware with a relatively short lifetime. AI has contributed to the ecological footprint concerning carbon emissions, water use, supply chain impacts, and electronic waste. Current research on ecological sustainability of AI face challenges due to fragmented data across disciplines. The review aims to gather emerging research emphasizing the sustainability paradox. AI's environmental impact originates from factors like hardware emissions, scaling practices, and rebound effects. Our assessment reveals that its impact will likely exceed available management solutions. Thus, an exclusive focus on reducing efficiency alone will not suffice in the future to minimize environmental impact. In order to create sustainable AI products and systems, changes and transformations must occur within the marketplace, including the development of low-carbon data center infrastructure; the implementation of transparent and accessible reporting; the utilization of environmentally responsible and sensibly sourced computing hardware; and the adoption of circular economy ideals. AI’s ecological future is not predetermined and will ultimately be a product of the cumulative and collective choices regarding technology, policy, and ethics that lead AI development to long-term ecological viability.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"6 ","pages":"Article 100029"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-12-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145772003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Decision rules for salt –feedback loops in One Water systems and their implications for collective management","authors":"Benjamin H. Roston ,&nbsp;Megan A. Rippy ,&nbsp;Shalini Misra ,&nbsp;Stanley B. Grant ,&nbsp;Todd Schenk ,&nbsp;Thomas A. Birkland ,&nbsp;Sujay Kaushal","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100028","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100028","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Freshwater salinization is an emerging challenge that threatens ecosystem health and drinking water security. Coordinated action is necessary to address this challenge, but is often hampered by fragmented management of water subsystems that does not consider the feedback loops between them. This study uses surveys, interviews, and fuzzy cognitive maps (mental models that capture important system concepts and relationships) to characterize stakeholder perceptions of feedback loops between water subsystems and their implications for salt management. We use Virginia’s Occoquan Reservoir, a salinizing “One Water” system where wastewater, drinking water, and stormwater are coupled and the need for integrated management is great, as a test case, focusing on (1) the prevalence of feedback loops in stakeholder mental models of salinization, (2) the existence of decision rules - feedback loops that bridge social and natural subsystems and constitute potential levers for managing salt, and (3) the extent to which aggregating multiple mental models generates “wiser” decision rules. Our results suggest that while stakeholders perceive relatively few feedback loops and decision rules individually, collectively they resolve a dynamic and interconnected system. Aggregating multiple perspectives revealed over 450 decision rules, not all of which made sense to individuals. Sense-making depended more on the content of decision rules than their length or dynamics. Stormwater subsystems were absent from all decision rules, highlighting a gap in systems understanding that could hinder effective management. Creating opportunities for cross-agency communication and shared learning could help bridge such gaps, supporting collective governance in One Water systems like the Occoquan.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100028"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145623296","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Global land use and land cover projections under the shared socio-economic pathways: An integrated computable general equilibrium analysis with sub-national resolution for Europe","authors":"Theresa Goebel,&nbsp;Wolfgang Britz","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100027","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100027","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Anticipating uncertain land use and land cover trajectories, central to global sustainability and climate action, requires scenario-based projections grounded in socio-economic narratives. This study presents a new modelling framework for generating globally consistent land use and land cover projections, applied to the five Shared Socio-Economic Pathways through 2050. Compared to existing work, this approach offers four key advancements: (1) avoiding multi-model coupling and increasing transparency through the use of an open-source, stand-alone economic model with integrated assessment features; (2) integrating key structural change drivers in a recursive-dynamic set-up; (3) achieving high regional resolution, including NUTS2 level disaggregation for European economic dynamics; and (4) representing land-using production activities and products with high resolution. The new projections are generated using CGEBox, an open-source Computable General Equilibrium modelling platform tailored for long-term baseline development, with integrated accounting for land use, land cover, and energy. CGEBox produces complementary projections within the range of results from established Integrated Assessment Models, offering new insights into the complex interactions between socio-economic drivers and land system dynamics. Only the most sustainable scenario - combining strong behavioural change, ambitious policy action, and favourable technological progress - shows a marked increase in natural land cover. The remaining scenarios range from near-stable natural land cover to notable losses in cases lacking environmental protection. The new projections are particularly valuable for economically grounded policy assessments of land use and land cover change and its implications - especially where timely updates, distributional effects, or regional and land use details are essential.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100027"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145415511","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Agricultural transition processes and sustainability: A review with a focus on low-income settings","authors":"Ayala Wineman","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100025","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100025","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The need for agricultural systems to evolve in a more sustainable direction is widely recognized. When agriculture is placed within a sustainability transitions framework, the focus is almost entirely on industrial agriculture in middle- or high-income settings, implicitly placing large-scale, highly mechanized agriculture as the prevailing (and problematic) regime to be transformed. Less attention is given to settings of small-scale, low-intensity, subsistence farming where the agricultural sector is in the early stages of a transformation to modern, commercial, and larger-scale production. In this review, I consider how low-income countries at the start of this agricultural transformation process may take purposive actions to “leapfrog” past the lock-ins that hold industrial agriculture elsewhere in an environmentally destructive pattern. These lock-ins include a highly concentrated agrifood industry with power held by a small handful of transnational agrifood corporations; a narrow innovation environment often controlled by those same companies; and the embedded nature of dominant agricultural technologies. Low-income countries can take steps to shape an agricultural system that is more amenable to evolving in a sustainable direction. They can facilitate competition and diversity in the agrifood industry; promote diversity in farm structure; stimulate and shape an innovation environment oriented toward sustainability priorities; foster stakeholder engagement to build consensus across the decentralized agricultural sector; and maintain sight of the multiple (environmental, social, and economic) dimensions of sustainability. While these steps increase the likelihood that the trajectory of agricultural transformation will incorporate sustainability into its end state, prospects for purposive decision-making are narrowed by the inherent complexity of agricultural systems; the tensions and tradeoffs among the multiple dimensions of sustainability, especially in low-income settings; and the weakness of institutions, including central governments. Future research should concretize these concepts with case studies and empirical work in low-income settings to evaluate whether the sustainability transitions lens is, in actuality, helpful to policy makers.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100025"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144932101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Temporal Dynamics of Crop Health in Maize Cultivars: Insights for Drone-Based Data Interpretation","authors":"Pedro R. Soares ,&nbsp;Matthew T. Harrison ,&nbsp;Hamid Reza Ghafarian Malamiri ,&nbsp;Cristiano Premebida ,&nbsp;Carla S.S. Ferreira","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100026","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100026","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Monitoring plant vigor throughout the growing season is crucial for supporting precision agriculture practices and improving crop yield predictions. While remote sensing technologies offer rapid and efficient tools for crop monitoring, challenges persist in accurately interpreting the data. This study explores the temporal dynamics of leaf biochemical properties in diurnal periods (morning and afternoon), phenological stages (vegetative and reproductive), and cultivar-specific differences. Leaf chlorophyll and flavonoid contents, and nitrogen balance index (NBI) were assessed in seven maize cultivars during the growing season, using the portable device Dualex® Scientific meter. The results revealed significant diurnal variation in chlorophyll content and NBI, with higher values observed in the morning compared with the afternoon. In contrast, no diurnal variation was detected in flavonoid content. Phenological stages also influenced leaf biochemistry, with distinctions between young and old leaves. For instance, young leaves exhibited higher chlorophyll concentration and NBI and lower flavonoids compared with older leaves, where senescence occurred earlier. Cultivar-specific differences were also observed, with some cultivars showing higher chlorophyll content and NBI, likely influenced by crop maturity duration. These differences in leaf biochemistry did not significantly impact grain yield but rather influenced aboveground biomass (i.e. plant height and ear weight). These findings underscore the importance of accounting for diurnal and phenological factors, as well as cultivar-specific differences, when using physiological leaf properties to evaluate crop status and predict yields. We highlight significant differences in biochemical properties between young and old leaves, which introduce biases in remote data collection e.g. via drones or unmanned aerial systems. Since drones predominantly capture data from the upper canopy leaves, this may not adequately reflect the overall plant physiological status. To enhance the accuracy of data and improve precision agriculture practices and yield predictions, combining remote sensing data with ground-level measurements is strongly recommended.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100026"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145319889","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Localizing climate action in cities: Applying historical ecology to urban climate governance","authors":"Christopher C. Graham","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100024","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100024","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cities are at the epicenter of global climate action. As a feature of urban climate governance, several major cities across the United States have developed multi-year action plans to conceptualize and coordinate their climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. For certain cities, these plans have been transformative. Leveraging resources and policy processes, they integrate climate resilience-building into long-term planning and urban development projects. However, the literature and practice of urban climate governance typically exist between the present and the future. There is relatively minimal regard for the historical forces that have shaped regional ecologies and cities, some for hundreds of years. Drawing upon historical ecology approaches, utilizing geoinformatics, and conducting quantitative and qualitative content analysis of city-specific climate action plans, this study examines how and why cities are applying historical knowledge and ecological principles in urban climate governance. The findings indicate that city planners and officials are increasingly integrating ecological practices and historical knowledge systems as a means of localizing, customizing, and better contextualizing climate action, particularly focusing on reducing combined risks in highly susceptible communities and urban landscapes. Green engineering and infrastructure, water resource management, and urban biodiversity enhancement are areas where this application has been most evident. Cities nevertheless encounter significant governance challenges in meeting the desired climate action outcomes. The results suggest that limited availability of historical data, ethical considerations regarding the use of Indigenous knowledge, climate solutions disparities, and historical path dependency are among the main limiting factors.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100024"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144888842","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Power dynamics influence resilience to shocks: evidence from Bangladesh","authors":"Zack Guido ,&nbsp;Timothy J. Finan ,&nbsp;Mehrul Islam ,&nbsp;Fatima Jahan Seema ,&nbsp;Nayeem Hasan ,&nbsp;Saima Akter ,&nbsp;Baishakhi Ghosh ,&nbsp;Faysal Ahmed Shovo ,&nbsp;James Soren","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100023","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100023","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Resilience has gained influence as an organizing principal for development in recent years. It offers a logic that places development progress on the ability of individuals or groups to maintain well-being, and possibly transform it, despite social and environmental shocks. Although there has been substantial research on the determinants of resilience, a gap in understanding exists about how power dynamics affect resilience and how resilience interventions can address power. This research study explores the links between power and resilience within highly vulnerable communities where development interventions have had a long presence. We present empirical results from community-based research conducted in eight rural northern Bangladesh communities. Our analysis is presented in three steps. First, we show the various ways people contend with shocks, and we group these local activities into common resilience strategies. We then show evidence of change in the traditional exercise of power expressed as increased agency (<em>power-to</em>) and reduced constraints and restrictions (<em>power-over</em>). Finally, we show different pathways by which the changes in power affect resilience strategies, concluding that shifts towards more equitable power relations enhance resilience capacities. We discuss the implications of these results for designing resilience interventions and integrating power into resilience studies.</div><div>150 Word Summary</div><div>Resilience has become influential as an organizing principal for sustainable development, placing development progress on the ability of individuals or groups to maintain well-being or transform it despite social and environmental shocks. Resilience, however, has focused on material aspects of development and not adequately addressed how power dynamics affect resilience and how resilience interventions can address power. This study present results on the relationships between power and resilience using community-based research in eight rural Bangladesh communities. The study documents the ways people contend with shocks, presents evidence of change in the exercise of power expressed as increased agency (<em>power-to</em>) and reduced constraints and restrictions (<em>power-over</em>), and show pathways by which changes in power affect resilience. We discuss how development programming can use power analyses to design of interventions and evaluated their impacts. We conclude that shifts towards more equitable power relations enhance resilience capacities and, thus, development goals.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100023"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144829372","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Potential consequences of the international transfer of emission allowances under the updated national emissions targets by 2030","authors":"Toshiki Tsutsui ,&nbsp;Osamu Nishiura ,&nbsp;Shinichiro Fujimori ,&nbsp;Ken Oshiro","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100022","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100022","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>All parties that signed the Paris Agreement are required to update their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) every 5 years. The international transfer of emission allowances is a political instrument that has the potential to realize global emission reductions under the NDCs. This study conducted an economic assessment of the implementation of updated NDCs and quantified the effects of the international transfer of emission allowances using a global computable general equilibrium model. The results showed that updating NDCs increased gross domestic product (GDP) losses relative to the previous NDCs. The international transfer of emission allowances mitigated global GDP losses relative to baseline scenarios from 1.1 % to 0.7 % but there was an increase in some developing countries with relatively low emission reduction targets. While the international transfer of emission allowances could promote the reduction of global emissions in a cost-effective manner, it could also impose an economic burden on some developing countries through their linkages to the global carbon market. Thus, the results of this study indicate the importance of considering additional financial or technical support to developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100022"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144634419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"The long-term suitability of agrivoltaics as a climate adaptation strategy in the southwestern United States","authors":"Talitha H. Neesham-McTiernan,&nbsp;Greg A. Barron-Gafford","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100021","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100021","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The semi-arid environment of the southwestern United States, coupled with rising temperatures and reducing water availability, is threatening the sustainability of agriculture. To sustain farming here, strategies that support agricultural systems in adapting to the changing climate are needed. In such environments, agrivoltaics create a microclimate that can reduce air temperature and increase water efficiency, potentially providing a promising adaptation solution. However, strategic and appropriate implementation requires understanding where these systems would be most beneficial. We evaluate land suitability for agrivoltaics across the southwest using spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis, which incorporates biophysical variables that relate to the potential microclimate benefits provided by agrivoltaics under current and future climate conditions. Results show 310,393 km² of the region is suitable for agrivoltaics, with 20,576 km² classified as most suitable under current conditions, increasing to 31,712 km² under 2080 conditions. Arizona, New Mexico, and California contain the largest area of most suitable land under all time periods, with Luna and Torrance counties, New Mexico, Cochise and Maricopa counties, Arizona, and Imperial County, California, consistently ranking as the most suitable counties. Suitability increases as climate change progresses, with New Mexico and California seeing the largest relative gains. 82.7 % of the region is found to be unsuitable, highlighting the need for careful site selection when considering agrivoltaic implementation. Despite this, our findings indicate the substantial potential for agrivoltaics to support agricultural systems in the southwestern U.S. adapt to mounting environmental pressures and establishes a foundational understanding of where these systems could be most beneficial.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100021"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144632844","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

{"title":"Exploring energy consumption trends: Insights from developed and developing nations","authors":"Isma Sadaf ,&nbsp;Babar Hussain","doi":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100020","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.gecadv.2025.100020","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the determinants of energy consumption, with a primary focus on energy prices, and explores whether human capital moderates the relationship between energy prices and energy consumption across developed and developing countries. Using the generalized method of moments (GMM) for empirical analysis, the study examines data from 81 countries over a 33-year period from 1990 to 2023. The findings reveal that an increase in energy prices leads to reduced energy consumption in both developed and developing nations. Furthermore, the moderating role of human capital suggests that energy prices and human capital act as substitutes in influencing energy consumption. Specifically, the conditional analysis indicates that when human capital transitions from lower to higher levels, energy prices exert a more detrimental effect on energy consumption. These insights have practical implications, particularly highlighting the importance of investing in human capital to enhance energy efficiency. The study suggests that policymakers worldwide should prioritize investments in higher education, as this can lead to improved energy efficiency through the positive link between human capital and energy use. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first comprehensive empirical study examining the role of human capital in the relationship between energy prices and energy consumption in both developed and developing countries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100586,"journal":{"name":"Global Environmental Change Advances","volume":"5 ","pages":"Article 100020"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2025-06-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"144288773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}