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The effect of rising food prices on nutrient intake among rural–urban migrants in China 食品价格上涨对中国城乡流动人口营养摄入的影响
IF 5.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-05-23 DOI: 10.1108/caer-04-2022-0084
Lei Li, J. Bai, Qiubo Zhu
PurposeThe purpose of this study is to assess the impact of rising food prices on food demand and nutrient intake among rural–urban migrants and whether such impact varies across income classes.Design/methodology/approachUsing data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), this study adopts a quadratic almost ideal demand system (QUAIDS) for food demand elasticity and an indirect estimation method for nutrient elasticity to investigate the effects of rising food prices on food demand and nutrient intake among rural–urban migrants.FindingsThe estimated results indicate that an increase in the price of pork alone would lead to a larger reduction in most nutrients among rural–urban migrants than other single targeted food group, and a simultaneous rise in the price of all food groups would have a remarkably adverse effect on the nutritional status of rural–urban migrants in comparison to the nutritional effects of a rise in one targeted food group. In addition, the nutritional effects of food prices across income classes show that the nutritional status is particularly vulnerable to rising food prices among low-income rural–urban migrants.Originality/valueThis paper focuses on analyzing the impact of rising food prices on the nutritional status of rural–urban migrants, a topic that is very limited in the literature. This study provides a fresh look at the effect of volatile food prices on food demand and nutrient intake among rural–urban migrants. The results indicate that income growth would have a remarkable positive effect on nutrient intake for rural–urban migrants, especially for low-income rural–urban migrants. However, an increment in nutrients due to a growth in income would not be far from enough to cover the reduction in nutrients as a result of a simultaneous rise in price of all the studied food categories at the same rate.
目的本研究的目的是评估食品价格上涨对城乡流动人口的食品需求和营养摄入的影响,以及这种影响是否因收入阶层而异。设计/方法/方法利用中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)的数据,本研究采用食品需求弹性的二次几乎理想需求系统(QUAIDS)和营养弹性的间接估计方法,研究了食品价格上涨对城乡流动人口食品需求和营养素摄入的影响。调查结果估计结果表明,与其他单一目标食品群体相比,仅猪肉价格的上涨就将导致农村-城市移民中大多数营养素的减少,与一个目标食品群体的营养影响相比,所有食品群体的价格同时上涨将对城乡移民的营养状况产生显著的不利影响。此外,不同收入阶层的食品价格对营养的影响表明,低收入城乡移民的营养状况尤其容易受到食品价格上涨的影响。原创性/价值本文重点分析了食品价格上涨对农村-城市移民营养状况的影响,这一主题在文献中非常有限。这项研究对波动的食品价格对农村和城市移民的食品需求和营养摄入的影响提供了一个新的视角。研究结果表明,收入增长对城乡流动人口,特别是低收入城乡流动人口的营养摄入具有显著的正向影响。然而,由于收入的增长而增加的营养素不足以弥补由于所有研究食品类别的价格同时以相同的速度上涨而导致的营养素减少。
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引用次数: 0
Process decomposition of expanded rural housing at the rural–urban fringe: evidence from 27,034 buildings in Pudong New Area, Shanghai, China 城乡结合部农村扩大住房的过程分解——来自上海浦东新区27034栋建筑的证据
IF 5.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-05-15 DOI: 10.1108/caer-02-2022-0032
Yin-ying Cai, Jin Xie, L. Huntsinger
PurposeFaced with the challenges of rural population decline, combined with the widespread expansion of homesteads in rural areas, local Chinese governments hope to strictly control and minimize rural housing land. Accurately decomposing the process of rural housing expansion and revealing its driving factors will be helpful for land-use regulation by the government.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, an unusually rich dataset of rural housing registration from Pudong New Area in Shanghai is employed. The study aimed to decompose the fragmented accumulation process and its expansion determinants on rural housing assets. The dataset covers all samples of rural households and housing plots at 72 surveyed villages in six towns.FindingsHousing offers profitable capital and earning assets to villagers at the urban fringe, so they have a powerful incentive to build and expand more. The results of this analysis showed that the expansion of rural housing is largely due to the haphazard construction of auxiliary rooms by villagers, especially on plots of arable land that are adjacent to their houses that have been stealthily converted into auxiliary rooms and sheds. Low costs and weak penalties have led to an increase in rent-seeking expansions to rural houses. Houses with the smaller initial areas, families with more laborers and household heads, and the proximity of villages to downtown with convenient living services were the main driving factors for expanding houses. A concerted effort is needed to control the disorganized and unlicensed expansion of housing. This effort should include formulating areas for free use by villagers, high taxes on overused areas, serious penalties for unlicensed housing expansion and effective land-use planning.Research limitations/implicationsAn understanding of the expansion status and control measures related to rural houses in Shanghai provides an important reference that can help to guide the formulation of rural housing policies, and the sustainable development of cities worldwide. Of course, this study cannot generalize about housing distribution and expansion status worldwide based on the study area in China, because China's land tenure policies are unique. But land registry data exists that makes research like this feasible. There is a need to carefully examine the detailed housing distribution in each country before it can be decided on how best to address the disorderly increase in rural housing stock, and promote the reduction of rural residential expansion.Originality/valueFirst, the process of rural housing expansion by using an unique dataset which covers ten thousands of samples is revealed. Second, the results have policy implications for reducing the amount of idle and inefficiently rural homestead. The focus is on rural housing growth and its driving factors in Shanghai, and the villagers' motivations for housing expansion are explored.
目的面对农村人口减少的挑战,再加上农村宅基地的广泛扩张,中国地方政府希望严格控制和尽量减少农村住房用地。准确地分解农村住房扩张的过程,揭示其驱动因素,有助于政府对土地利用的调控。设计/方法/方法本研究采用了一个来自上海浦东新区的异常丰富的农村住房登记数据集。该研究旨在分解农村住房资产的碎片积累过程及其扩张决定因素。该数据集涵盖了六个城镇72个被调查村庄的所有农村家庭和住房地块样本。FindingsHousing为城市边缘的村民提供了有利可图的资本和赚钱的资产,因此他们有强大的动力来建造和扩建更多的房屋。分析结果表明,农村住房的扩张很大程度上是由于村民随意建造辅助用房,尤其是在他们房屋附近的耕地上,这些耕地被悄悄地改建为辅助用房和棚屋。低成本和处罚不力导致了农村房屋寻租扩张的增加。初始面积较小的房屋、劳动力和户主较多的家庭以及生活服务便利的村庄靠近市中心是扩大房屋的主要驱动因素。需要共同努力来控制无序和无许可证的住房扩张。这项工作应该包括制定村民免费使用的区域,对过度使用的区域征收高税,对无证扩建住房的行为进行严厉处罚,以及有效的土地利用规划。研究局限性/含义了解上海农村住房的扩张状况和控制措施,为指导全球农村住房政策的制定和城市的可持续发展提供了重要参考。当然,本研究不能基于中国的研究区域来概括世界范围内的住房分配和扩张状况,因为中国的土地保有政策是独特的。但是,土地登记数据的存在使这样的研究变得可行。有必要仔细审查每个国家的详细住房分配,然后才能决定如何最好地解决农村住房存量无序增加的问题,并促进减少农村住房扩张。独创性/价值首先,通过使用一个覆盖数万个样本的独特数据集,揭示了农村住房扩张的过程。其次,研究结果对减少闲置和低效农村宅基地数量具有政策意义。重点研究了上海农村住房增长及其驱动因素,并探讨了村民住房扩张的动机。
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引用次数: 0
Editorial: Prediction, pattern recognition and machine learning in agricultural economics 社论:农业经济学中的预测、模式识别和机器学习
IF 5.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-05-02 DOI: 10.1108/caer-05-2023-307
Xiaohua Yu, Lucie Maruejols
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引用次数: 0
What determines the development of a rural collective economy? A fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) approach 什么决定农村集体经济的发展?一种模糊集定性比较分析方法
IF 5.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-04-13 DOI: 10.1108/caer-12-2021-0244
R. Hong, Minlu Zhan, Fuxi Wang
PurposeThis study explores configurations that promote the development of collective economies in China's rural villages and reveals the multiple development pathways that otherwise remain relatively unexamined in the literature.Design/methodology/approachThe authors obtained first-hand representative case data from 20 villages in 12 counties in 5 provinces in East, West and Central China via fieldwork and applied fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to conduct a configurational comparative study of the development of village collective economies.FindingsThis paper identifies five factors in the current literature that affect the development of village collectives, based on an “entrepreneur–situation” analytical framework. Using the fsQCA method, this study further obtains two main configurations of conditions that culminate in the growth of rural collective economies in China. The first solution is the “top-down path”: When entrepreneurial leadership (EL), resource endowment (RE) and government assistance (GA) are present, a village collective economy will experience a high level of development, irrespective of policy support (PS) and villagers' participation (VP). The second solution is the “bottom-up path”: When EL, VP and PS are present and GA is not present, a village collective economy will experience a high level of development, irrespective of RE. In both situations, EL stands out as the core condition for the development of village collective economies, implying the need for the government to vigorously cultivate the entrepreneurial skills and aspirations of village cadres.Originality/valueTaking a configurational perspective and using an fsQCA approach, this research constructs an “entrepreneur–situation” analytical framework to investigate the key combinations of factors and pathways involved in the high level of development of Chinese village collective economies.
目的本研究探讨了促进中国农村集体经济发展的结构,并揭示了文献中相对未研究的多种发展途径。设计/方法论/方法作者通过实地调查获得了来自东、西、中5个省12个县20个村的第一手代表性案例数据,并应用模糊集定性比较分析(fsQCA)对村集体经济发展进行了配置比较研究。发现本文基于“企业家-情境”分析框架,确定了当前文献中影响村集体发展的五个因素。运用fsQCA方法,本研究进一步获得了中国农村集体经济发展的两种主要条件配置。第一个解决方案是“自上而下的路径”:当企业家领导力(EL)、资源禀赋(RE)和政府援助(GA)存在时,无论政策支持(PS)和村民参与(VP)如何,村集体经济都将经历高水平的发展。第二种解决方案是“自下而上的路径”:当EL、VP和PS存在,而GA不存在时,无论RE如何,村集体经济都将经历高水平的发展。在这两种情况下,EL都是村集体经济发展的核心条件,这意味着政府需要大力培养村干部的创业技能和抱负。独创性/价值本研究采用配置视角,采用fsQCA方法,构建了一个“企业家-情境”分析框架,以调查中国农村集体经济高水平发展所涉及的因素和途径的关键组合。
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引用次数: 2
Farmers’ policy cognition, psychological constructs and behavior of land transfer: empirical analysis based on household surveys in Beijing 农民对土地流转的政策认知、心理结构与行为——基于北京农户调查的实证分析
IF 5.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-02-20 DOI: 10.1108/caer-06-2022-0122
Yating Zhang, Chung-Han Tsai, Wei Liu, Kun Weng
PurposeThis research examines farmers’ cognitions to the policy and how such cognitions influence their intentions and behaviors of land transfer, with the implementation of the Three Rights Separation (TRS) policy.Design/methodology/approachUsing data collected from the Beijing area, this research tests the relationship between farmers’ policy cognition and their intention/behavior through the mediation of their psychological constructs. Both Causal step test and Bootstrap test are adopted.FindingsFarmers’ intention of land transfer is influenced by their cognition of the TRS policy. In this process, farmers’ psychological constructs play a mediating role between their policy cognition and their intentions of land transfer, thereby eventually influencing their behaviors. This research confirms that institutions are not exogenous and the policy is not wishful thinking from the government. Instead, any policies, even enacted by governmental authority, have to be internalized within target groups’ cognition to be implemented.Originality/valueLand transfer deserves close attention since it is the direct aim of the TRS reform. In this regard, this paper, based on an institutional perspective, aims to extend our understanding on the incentives of land transfer. This research proposes a revised model of planned behavior and argues that farmers’ intention of land transfer is influenced by their cognition of the TRS policy. On one hand, this study is the first to examine farmers’ cognition formed through the implementation of the TRS policy. On the other hand, it reveals the path of how policy can finally influence farmers’ intentions and behaviors through shaping their cognitions and changing subjective perceptions, which enriches our understanding of the mechanism of how policy has a concrete impact on society.
目的本研究考察三权分置政策实施后农民对土地出让政策的认知,以及这种认知如何影响农民的土地出让意愿和行为。设计/方法/途径本研究以北京地区为研究对象,通过农户心理构念的中介,检验农户政策认知与意愿/行为之间的关系。采用因果步长检验和Bootstrap检验。发现农户土地流转意愿受农户对土地流转政策认知的影响。在这一过程中,农民的心理构念在政策认知与土地流转意愿之间起中介作用,最终影响农民的行为。这一研究证实了制度不是外生的,政策也不是政府的一厢情愿。相反,任何政策,即使是政府当局制定的,也必须内化在目标群体的认知中才能实施。原创性/价值和转移是TRS改革的直接目标,值得密切关注。在此基础上,本文试图从制度的角度拓展我们对土地流转激励机制的认识。本研究提出了一个修正的计划行为模型,并认为农民对土地出让政策的认知影响了他们的土地出让意愿。一方面,本研究首次考察了农民在实施TRS政策过程中形成的认知。另一方面,揭示了政策如何通过塑造农民的认知和改变主观感知最终影响农民的意图和行为的路径,丰富了我们对政策如何对社会产生具体影响的机制的理解。
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引用次数: 2
Fuel adoption in rural heating: a field study on northern China 中国北方农村供暖采用燃料的实地研究
IF 5.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-02-20 DOI: 10.1108/caer-06-2022-0109
Lin Zhu, Hua Liao, You Zhou
PurposePromoting clean heating in rural areas is crucial for achieving a low-carbon transition of energy consumption and China's dual-carbon target. The study aims to consider the energy stacking behavior in heating energy use, reveals the determinants that affect household cleaner heating choices under the winter clean heating plan (WCHP), and proposes policy recommendations for the sustainable promotion of clean heating.Design/methodology/approachWith unique rural household survey data covering the clean heating pilot regions in northern China in 2020, this study estimates the relationship between driving factors and heating energy choices through binary and multivariate probit models.FindingsThe regression estimates show that the main drivers of heating energy choices include household income per capita, education level of household head, knowledge of the WCHP, access to heating subsidies and perception of indoor air pollution. There is energy stacking behavior in rural household heating energy use. Household decisions to adopt electricity or clean coal heating are correlated with firewood or soft coal use.Originality/valueThis study is one of the few to investigate the heating energy use of rural households by allowing for the adoption of multiple energy types. Combined with a unique microsurvey dataset, it could provide rich information for formulating proper energy transition planning. The findings also shed light on the importance of heating subsidies, households' knowledge of WCHP and awareness of environmental health in choosing clean heating energy, which has not been fully valued in related research.
目的推进农村清洁取暖对实现能源消费低碳转型和中国双碳目标至关重要。该研究旨在考虑供暖能源使用中的能源堆叠行为,揭示冬季清洁供暖计划下影响家庭清洁供暖选择的决定因素,并为可持续推广清洁供暖提出政策建议。设计/方法/方法本研究利用2020年中国北方清洁取暖试点地区独特的农村住户调查数据,通过二元和多元probit模型估计了驱动因素与供暖能源选择之间的关系。结果回归估计表明,供暖能源选择的主要驱动因素包括家庭人均收入、户主的教育水平、对WCHP的了解、获得供暖补贴的机会和对室内空气污染的感知。农村家庭供暖能源使用存在能量叠加行为。家庭决定采用电力或清洁煤供暖与木柴或软煤的使用有关。独创性/价值本研究是为数不多的通过允许采用多种能源类型来调查农村家庭供暖能源使用情况的研究之一。结合独特的微观调查数据集,它可以为制定适当的能源转型规划提供丰富的信息。研究结果还揭示了供暖补贴、家庭对WCHP的了解以及环境健康意识在选择清洁供暖能源方面的重要性,而这些在相关研究中尚未得到充分重视。
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引用次数: 0
Would consumers help achieve sustainable development in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau with a forage–livestock balance certification label? 消费者会通过草畜平衡认证标签帮助青藏高原实现可持续发展吗?
IF 5.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI: 10.1108/caer-05-2022-0104
Yan Zhang, Shaosheng Jin, Wen Lin
PurposeThe contradiction and conflict between grassland conservation and economic development are prominent in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) with its fragile environment and ecosystem. How to promote sustainable grazing in the plateau without hurting the economic welfare of local residents is a key challenge facing the Chinese government. This study explores the potential of market-based grassland conservation policies by evaluating consumer preferences and valuations for forage–livestock balance certification labeled yak products.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopts a choice experiment with four attributes of yak meat, including forage–livestock balance certification, feeding type, age at slaughter and price. A sample size of 2,999 respondents from Beijing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Guangzhou and Chengdu was collected by a professional online survey company.FindingsThe result reveals that urban Chinese consumers are willing to pay highest price premiums for forage–livestock balance certified yak meat, followed by grass-fed claim labeled meat. Consumers on average place negative valuations for grain-fed claims, meat from yak slaughtered above 2 and 4 years old. Heterogeneous analysis indicates that individuals who are female, younger, married, and better educated, and with above median income, Tibet travel or yak consumption experience, are more receptive to the forage–livestock balance certification.Originality/valueIt is the first study to explore demand-driven mechanisms for grassland conservation by focusing on consumer valuation for the forage–livestock balance certification.
目的青藏高原环境和生态系统脆弱,草原保护与经济发展的矛盾和冲突突出。如何在不损害当地居民经济福利的情况下促进高原的可持续放牧,是中国政府面临的一个关键挑战。本研究通过评估消费者对牦牛产品草畜平衡认证的偏好和价值,探讨了基于市场的草原保护政策的潜力。设计/方法/方法本研究采用选择试验,选取牦牛肉料畜平衡认证、饲养类型、屠宰年龄和价格等4个属性。一家专业的在线调查公司从北京、上海、武汉、广州和成都收集了2999名受访者的样本。结果显示,中国城市消费者最愿意为草食平衡认证的牦牛肉品支付最高的溢价,其次是草食认证的肉品。消费者对谷物饲料(2岁和4岁以上屠宰的牦牛的肉)的平均评价为负面。异质性分析表明,女性、年轻、已婚、受教育程度较高、收入中位数以上、有西藏旅游或牦牛消费经历的个体更容易接受草畜平衡认证。原创性/价值这是第一个通过关注消费者对草畜平衡认证的评估来探索草原保护需求驱动机制的研究。
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引用次数: 2
Health vulnerability and health poverty of rice farmers: evidence from Hubei province in China 稻农健康脆弱性与健康贫困:来自湖北省的证据
IF 5.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-02-13 DOI: 10.1108/caer-03-2021-0062
Wenjing Li, Lu Zhang, Meng Yue, J. Ruiz-Menjivar, Junbiao Zhang
PurposeThe purpose of this study was threefold: (1) to measure farmers' health poverty, (2) to examine the effect of health vulnerability on health poverty and (3) to identify countermeasures that may alleviate health poverty in rural China.Design/methodology/approachThis study built a health poverty measurement model based on the multi-dimensional poverty framework to evaluate farmers' health vulnerability. Further, this paper used an econometric model to assess the impact of health vulnerability on health poverty. The sample for this study comprised 1,115 rice farmers from Hubei province, China.FindingsThe medical affordability poverty ratio was 17.95%, where farmers in the low-income group faced severe medical affordability poverty (27.46%). Results from the multi-dimensional analysis showed that, the health poverty ratios were 17.95 and 30.50%, respectively. Our results indicated that climate change vulnerabilities, living habits, medical facilities and medical accessibility were positively related to health poverty, whereas the regular physical examinations reduced mental health poverty.Research limitations/implicationsBased on this study's findings, we proposed that: (1) to address illness-induced poverty among members of the agricultural community, national and provincial strategies and programs grounded on a multi-dimensional health poverty framework ought to be formulated and implemented, (2) mechanisms of health knowledge exchange may facilitate the improvement of farmers' health status, (3) robust and comprehensive metrics should be employed to understand and improve farmers' ability to absorb and mitigate the negative health impacts and (4) the improvement in both quality and quantity for medical facilities and medical affordability in the rural areas should be key priorities in governmental-wide initiatives.Originality/valueExisting studies for alleviating poverty caused by disease mainly focus on medical service support to those economic vulnerabilities after a disease happens. However, few studies have focused on the root causes of poverty caused by disease, particularly from the preventive perspective of health vulnerability. To fill this gap, this study, therefore, proposes the health poverty index and analyzes the impact of health vulnerability on health poverty.
目的本研究的目的有三个:(1)测量农民的健康贫困程度,(2)研究健康脆弱性对健康贫困的影响;(3)确定缓解中国农村健康贫困的对策。设计/方法/方法本研究建立了一个基于多维贫困框架的健康贫困测度模型,用于评估农民的健康脆弱性。此外,本文使用计量经济学模型来评估健康脆弱性对健康贫困的影响。本研究的样本包括来自湖北省的1115名稻农。结果表明,医疗负担能力贫困率为17.95%,其中低收入群体的农民面临严重的医疗负担能力贫穷(27.46%)。多维分析结果显示,健康贫困率分别为17.95%和30.50%。我们的研究结果表明,气候变化的脆弱性、生活习惯、医疗设施和医疗可及性与健康贫困呈正相关,而定期体检减少了心理健康贫困。研究局限性/含义基于本研究的发现,我们提出:(1)为了解决农业社区成员中由疾病引发的贫困问题,应制定并实施基于多维健康贫困框架的国家和省级战略和计划,(2)健康知识交流机制有利于农民健康状况的改善,(3)应采用稳健和全面的指标来了解和提高农民吸收和减轻负面健康影响的能力;(4)提高医疗设施的质量和数量以及农村地区的医疗负担能力应是政府范围内举措的关键优先事项。原创性/价值现有的减轻疾病造成的贫困的研究主要集中在疾病发生后对那些经济脆弱性的医疗服务支持上。然而,很少有研究关注疾病造成贫困的根本原因,特别是从健康脆弱性的预防角度。为了填补这一空白,本研究提出了健康贫困指数,并分析了健康脆弱性对健康贫困的影响。
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引用次数: 2
Quantifying the impact of Russia–Ukraine crisis on food security and trade pattern: evidence from a structural general equilibrium trade model 量化俄乌危机对粮食安全和贸易格局的影响:来自结构性一般均衡贸易模型的证据
IF 5.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2023-01-05 DOI: 10.1108/caer-07-2022-0156
F. Feng, Ni-yan Jia, Faqin Lin
PurposeConsidering the importance of Russia and Ukraine in agriculture, the authors quantify the potential impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food output, trade, prices and food security for the world.Design/methodology/approachThe authors mainly use the quantitative and structural multi-country and multi-sector general equilibrium trade model to analyze the potential impacts of the conflict on the global food trade pattern and security.FindingsFirst, the authors found that the conflict would lead to soaring agricultural prices, decreasing trade volume and severe food insecurity especially for countries that rely heavily on grain imports from Ukraine and Russia, such as Egypt and Turkey. Second, major production countries such as the United States and Canada may even benefit from the conflict. Third, restrictions on upstream energy and fertilizer will amplify the negative effects of food insecurity.Originality/valueThis study analyzed the effect of Russia–Ukraine conflict on global food security based on sector linkages and the quantitative general equilibrium trade framework. With a clearer demonstration of the influence about the inherent mechanism based on fewer parameters compared with traditional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) models, the authors showed integrated impacts of the conflict on food output, trade, prices and welfare across sectors and countries.
考虑到俄罗斯和乌克兰在农业方面的重要性,作者量化了俄乌冲突对世界粮食产量、贸易、价格和粮食安全的潜在影响。设计/方法/方法作者主要运用定量和结构性的多国和多部门一般均衡贸易模型来分析冲突对全球粮食贸易格局和安全的潜在影响。研究结果首先,作者发现,冲突将导致农产品价格飙升、贸易量减少和严重的粮食不安全,尤其是对那些严重依赖从乌克兰和俄罗斯进口粮食的国家,如埃及和土耳其。其次,美国和加拿大等主要生产国甚至可能从冲突中受益。第三,对上游能源和化肥的限制将放大粮食不安全的负面影响。本研究基于部门联系和定量一般均衡贸易框架,分析了俄乌冲突对全球粮食安全的影响。与传统的全球贸易分析项目(GTAP)模型相比,作者基于更少的参数更清晰地展示了内在机制的影响,展示了冲突对跨部门和国家的粮食产出、贸易、价格和福利的综合影响。
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引用次数: 10
Does female off-farm employment affect fertility desire? Evidence from rural China 女性非农就业是否影响生育意愿?来自中国农村的证据
IF 5.1 2区 经济学 Q1 AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS & POLICY Pub Date : 2022-12-14 DOI: 10.1108/caer-03-2022-0042
Zheng Shen, Derek S. Brown, Kang Yu
PurposeOff-farm employment is an important factor associated with fertility transition in many developing countries. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of female off-farm employment on their fertility desire in rural China.Design/methodology/approachBased on the data from the China Labor-force Dynamics Survey, the authors adopt an instrumental variable approach to address the endogeneity issue. Desired number of children and desire for a second child are used to measure fertility desire.FindingsThe results show that off-farm employment participation significantly reduces women's desired number of children and the likelihood of their desire for a second child. Moreover, off-farm employment reduces women's fertility desire mainly through pathways including the weakening of son preference and a decrease in job autonomy, rather than the changes in leisure hours. Further evidence suggests that social health insurance plays an important role in moderating the adverse relationship between off-farm employment and the desire for a second child. The fertility-reducing effects are more pronounced among younger women, among those participating in off-farm wage employment and among families with only wives' participation in the off-farm labor market.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the existing research by investigating the causal impact of off-farm employment on fertility desire in a rural developing context and the possible underlying mechanisms responsible for this relationship. This study provides important insights on this topic in developing countries and may have important implications for theory and practice.
在许多发展中国家,非农就业是与生育率转变有关的一个重要因素。本文旨在探讨中国农村女性非农就业对其生育意愿的影响。设计/方法/方法基于中国劳动力动态调查数据,作者采用工具变量方法来解决内生性问题。期望生育数和二胎愿望是衡量生育意愿的指标。研究结果表明,参与非农就业显著降低了女性想要孩子的数量和她们想要第二个孩子的可能性。此外,非农就业降低女性生育意愿主要是通过重男轻女观念减弱和工作自主性降低等途径,而不是通过闲暇时间的变化。进一步的证据表明,社会健康保险在缓和非农就业与二孩愿望之间的不利关系方面发挥了重要作用。在年轻女性中,在参加非农工资就业的女性中,以及在只有妻子参加非农劳动力市场的家庭中,生育率下降的影响更为明显。原创性/价值本文通过考察农村发展背景下非农就业对生育意愿的因果影响,以及这种关系的可能潜在机制,为现有研究做出贡献。本研究为发展中国家的这一主题提供了重要的见解,并可能对理论和实践具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
China Agricultural Economic Review
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