Sustainability Analytics and Modeling最新文献_第2页

Enhancing dynamic resilience of traffic network: Role of Bayesian pre-posterior analysis supported by real-time congestion scanning technology 增强交通网络的动态弹性：基于实时拥塞扫描技术的贝叶斯预后验分析的作用

Sustainability Analytics and Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.samod.2025.100043

Omar H. Elsafdi , Ata M. Khan

Major unanticipated disruptions to the traffic network that result in severe delays to travellers and adverse socio-economic impacts require an emergency preparedness strategy. Examples are bridge collapse caused by collision with a ship or fire or structural failure, and bridge closure due to stormwater. Although the inherent resilience of the traffic network can reduce the intensity of effects, dynamic resilience is required to further reduce delays until the disruption is removed or necessary demand management actions are implemented. The emergency preparedness mandate can be well-served with dynamic resilience action tested in a digital twin of the traffic network. This paper reports research on the development of dynamic resilience capability of the traffic network. Following problem definition, the methodological framework is described that incorporates dynamic stochastic assignment method-based traffic control system, real-time congestion scanning technology, and Bayesian pre-posterior analysis method that requires the use of scanning technology. The developed methodological framework guides decisions on the choice of dynamic resilience action and implementation time to minimize delay. The Chaudière Bridge that links Cities of Ottawa and Hull/Gatineau in the Canadian National Capital Area is used as a case study. This bridge outage caused by stormwater demonstrates the role of dynamic resilience in addressing uncertain states of post-disruption traffic delay. As compared to the business-as-usual traffic control, the dynamic resilience action-based control reduces delay by 12.3 % under very high delay condition. The developed new methodological framework for analyzing network resilience can be applied to other major network disruption cases to reduce delay.

交通网络发生重大意外中断，造成旅客严重延误和不利的社会经济影响，需要制定应急准备战略。例如，由于与船只碰撞或火灾或结构损坏而导致的桥梁倒塌，以及由于雨水导致的桥梁关闭。虽然交通网络固有的弹性可以降低影响的强度，但需要动态弹性来进一步减少延误，直到中断被消除或实施必要的需求管理行动。通过在交通网络的数字孪生体中测试动态复原力行动，可以很好地服务于应急准备任务。本文对交通网络动态弹性能力的发展进行了研究。根据问题定义，描述了基于动态随机分配方法的交通控制系统、实时拥堵扫描技术和需要使用扫描技术的贝叶斯前后验分析方法的方法框架。开发的方法框架指导动态弹性行动和实施时间的选择，以尽量减少延迟。连接渥太华市和加拿大国家首都地区赫尔/加蒂诺市的chaudire桥被用作案例研究。这次由暴雨引起的桥梁停运证明了动态弹性在解决中断后交通延误的不确定状态中的作用。与常规交通控制相比，在非常高的延迟条件下，基于动态弹性动作的控制减少了12.3%的延迟。所开发的分析网络弹性的新方法框架可以应用于其他主要网络中断情况，以减少延迟。

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引用次数: 0

Unlocking the nexus: Tourism, clean energy, innovation, and environmental sustainability in the top 20 tourist nations 解开联系：旅游、清洁能源、创新和前20个旅游国家的环境可持续性

Sustainability Analytics and Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.samod.2024.100037

Md Qamruzzaman

This study investigates the interplay between tourism activities, renewable energy utilization, and environmental impacts by analyzing a panel of the top 20 tourism nations over the period from 2005 to 2020. This research is motivated by an increasing interest in the intersection of tourism, a significant economic driver, and the objectives of environmental sustainability. The discourse surrounding the impact of tourism on environmental health is substantial, particularly in relation to the adoption of renewable energy and the carbon footprint associated with the sector. The research posits that the advancement of tourism has a beneficial impact on the consumption of renewable energy, subsequently aiding in the promotion of environmental sustainability. This analysis delves into the dual impact of tourism, suggesting that while it has the potential to enhance the utilization of renewable energy, it may concurrently present challenges to the quality of the environment. The investigation utilizes sophisticated econometric modelling methodologies, namely the Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) models, to analyze these relationships. The methodologies employed facilitate a comprehensive examination of both short-term and long-term impacts within the chosen nations throughout the designated timeframe. The results indicate a statistically significant and positive correlation between the development of tourism and the consumption of renewable energy, thereby reinforcing the hypothesis that an increase in tourism activity is associated with a rise in the utilization of clean energy sources. The observed relationship is consistent across both short-term and long-term analyses, indicating that tourism contributes positively to the adoption of renewable energy. The study reveals that tourism not only facilitates the integration of renewable energy but is also linked to environmental degradation, underscoring the imperative for sustainable practices. The research findings indicate that tourism has the potential to catalyze the adoption of renewable energy, presenting significant advantages for environmental sustainability.

本研究以2005年至2020年旅游业排名前20位的国家为研究对象，探讨旅游活动、再生能源利用与环境影响之间的相互作用。这项研究的动机是越来越多的兴趣在旅游，一个重要的经济驱动力和环境可持续性的目标的交集。围绕旅游业对环境健康的影响的讨论非常多，特别是在采用可再生能源和与该部门相关的碳足迹方面。研究认为，旅游业的发展对可再生能源的消费产生了有益的影响，从而有助于促进环境的可持续性。这一分析深入探讨了旅游业的双重影响，表明虽然旅游业有可能提高可再生能源的利用，但它可能同时对环境质量构成挑战。该研究利用复杂的计量经济学建模方法，即横断面自回归分布滞后（CS-ARDL）和非线性自回归分布滞后（NARDL）模型来分析这些关系。所采用的方法有助于在指定的时间范围内对选定国家的短期和长期影响进行全面审查。结果表明，旅游业的发展与可再生能源的消费之间存在统计学上显著的正相关关系，从而加强了旅游活动的增加与清洁能源利用的增加有关的假设。观察到的关系在短期和长期分析中都是一致的，表明旅游业对可再生能源的采用有积极的贡献。该研究表明，旅游业不仅促进了可再生能源的整合，而且还与环境退化有关，强调了可持续做法的必要性。研究结果表明，旅游业具有促进可再生能源采用的潜力，在环境可持续性方面具有显著优势。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing the suitability of existing landfills in East Baton Rouge Parish using spatial multi-criteria decision making 利用空间多准则决策评估东巴吞鲁日教区现有垃圾填埋场的适宜性

Sustainability Analytics and Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.samod.2025.100042

Jeff Dacosta Osei , Quisha Reed-Jones , Yaw A. Twumasi , Zhu H. Ning

Increasing population and rapid urbanization in growing communities create significant challenges for managing solid waste effectively. As a result of this, landfills have become part of the urban community to manage all urban waste. Still, the siting of this landfill requires a thorough analysis to select an optimal location for sustainable waste management. This study addresses the problem of selection of site for landfill in East Baton Rouge Parish using spatial analysis techniques, specifically Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Given the region's rapid population growth and urbanization, effective waste management is essential for environmental sustainability and public health protection. Integrating various spatial datasets and considering factors such as proximity to water bodies, residential areas, accessibility, and land use, the study developed suitability maps to guide decision-makers in identifying optimal landfill locations. Expert opinions from diverse fields were incorporated through AHP to assign appropriate weights to these criteria, enhancing the robustness of the framework for decision-making. The findings revealed several highly suitable areas (27 % of the total area of East Baton Rouge Parish representing 32,431.95 ha) for landfill sites that balance accessibility, minimal environmental impact, and sufficient distance from residential zones within the Baton Rouge Parish. Notably, the current landfills in the parish were found to be in unsuitable locations, underscoring the necessity for action to protect vulnerable communities like the Alsen St. Irma Lee community village which is within a proximity <500 m from the Ronaldson Field Landfill. The suitability maps and spatial analysis techniques used in the study highlight areas where landfill locations would have minimal negative effects on water bodies, residential zones, and other critical infrastructure.

人口增长和人口增长社区的快速城市化为有效管理固体废物带来了重大挑战。因此，垃圾填埋场已成为城市社区管理所有城市废物的一部分。尽管如此，这个垃圾填埋场的选址需要进行彻底的分析，以选择一个可持续废物管理的最佳位置。本研究利用空间分析技术，特别是多标准决策（MCDM）和层次分析法（AHP）解决了东巴吞鲁日教区垃圾填埋场选址问题。鉴于该区域人口快速增长和城市化，有效的废物管理对于环境可持续性和公共健康保护至关重要。综合各种空间数据集，并考虑到诸如靠近水体、居民区、可达性和土地利用等因素，该研究开发了适宜性地图，以指导决策者确定最佳的垃圾填埋场位置。通过层次分析法吸收不同领域的专家意见，为这些标准分配适当的权重，增强了决策框架的鲁棒性。研究结果显示，在巴吞鲁日教区内，有几个非常适合的地区（占东巴吞鲁日教区总面积的27%，即32,431.95公顷）可以平衡可达性、最小环境影响和与居民区的足够距离，作为垃圾填埋场。值得注意的是，教区目前的垃圾填埋场被发现位于不合适的位置，这强调了采取行动保护弱势社区的必要性，比如距离Ronaldson Field填埋场500米的Alsen St. Irma Lee社区村。研究中使用的适宜性地图和空间分析技术突出了填埋地点对水体、住宅区和其他关键基础设施的负面影响最小的地区。

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引用次数: 0

Transitioning to a green economy: Radical labor transformation or building upon existing skills? 向绿色经济转型：彻底的劳动力转型还是以现有技能为基础？

Sustainability Analytics and Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.samod.2025.100044

Shade T. Shutters , José Lobo

Transitioning to a “green” economy will require many industries to change their activities, raising concerns about the elimination of occupations and the need for significant retraining of the workforce. These concerns have increased resistance to a green transition from some sectors of society. Yet if skills embodied in current economic tasks can be reapplied to activities that facilitate a green transition, the retraining challenge might be lessened. Using a new taxonomy of sustainable economic activities – those that can contribute to climate change mitigation or adaptation – we estimate the number of US, German, and Canadian workers already employed in industries that are equipped to undertake sustainable economic activities. While the fraction of potential green workers varies considerably across metropolitan areas, in each country over one-third-of workers could conceivably contribute to a green economic transition by applying their existing skills to new activities. This represents >47 million workers in the US. Thus, a transition to a green economy may require more that firms reconfigure their workforces than individual workers reconfigure their skill sets.

向“绿色”经济转型将要求许多行业改变其活动，这引起了人们对职业消失和劳动力大量再培训需求的担忧。这些担忧增加了社会上一些部门对绿色转型的抵制。然而，如果当前经济任务所包含的技能可以重新应用于促进绿色过渡的活动，那么再培训的挑战可能会减轻。我们利用可持续经济活动的新分类——那些有助于减缓或适应气候变化的活动——估计了美国、德国和加拿大已经在具备从事可持续经济活动能力的行业就业的工人人数。虽然各个大都市地区潜在绿色工人的比例差异很大，但在每个国家，超过三分之一的工人可以通过将现有技能应用于新的活动，为绿色经济转型做出贡献。这代表了美国4700万工人。因此，向绿色经济转型可能需要更多的公司重新配置他们的劳动力，而不是个人工人重新配置他们的技能。

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引用次数: 0

Balancing growth and sustainability: The impact of economic status, energy, trade and finance on the ecological footprint in selected ASEAN economies 平衡增长和可持续性：经济状况、能源、贸易和金融对选定东盟经济体生态足迹的影响

Sustainability Analytics and Modeling

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.samod.2025.100041

Tzeni Tsompo , Eleni Sardianou , Alexandra Horobet , Manuel A. Zambrano-Monserrate , Ioannis Kostakis

The present study investigates the impact of economic growth, energy intensity, financial development, human development and entrepreneurial trade on the ecological footprint (EF) in six selected Asian countries from 1995 to 2020. The results obtained through cointegration analysis confirm a long-run relationship between the considered variables and ecological footprint. Wavelet and panel data analyses depict that economic growth implies higher environmental degradation but with a diminishing effect in higher quantiles. Similarly, a positive and significant energy intensity effect on the EF is more pronounced within low levels of environmental degradation. In contrast, financial development is positive and increasing in its impact on the ecological footprint, which is especially pronounced in countries with higher levels of environmental degradation, while the human development index has, on the other hand, a negative and significant impact on the ecological footprint, implying that improvement in human capital contributes to the reduction in levels of environmental degradation. Finally, openness to trade also positively influences the EF but is statistically insignificant. The findings allow policymakers to design targeted interventions, such as promoting financial regulations that steer investments to sustainable practices, encouraging renewable energy transitions, and enhancing human development to dampen the ecological footprint.

本研究考察了1995 - 2020年6个亚洲国家的经济增长、能源强度、金融发展、人类发展和创业贸易对生态足迹的影响。通过协整分析获得的结果证实了所考虑的变量与生态足迹之间的长期关系。小波和面板数据分析表明，经济增长意味着更严重的环境退化，但在较高的分位数上，影响逐渐减弱。同样，在环境退化程度较低的情况下，能源强度对生态环境的积极和显著影响更为明显。相比之下，金融发展对生态足迹的影响是积极的，并且正在增加，这在环境退化程度较高的国家尤为明显，而人类发展指数对生态足迹的影响则是消极的，这意味着人力资本的改善有助于降低环境退化程度。最后，贸易开放程度也对经济产出产生积极影响，但在统计上不显著。这些发现使决策者能够设计有针对性的干预措施，例如促进金融监管，引导投资转向可持续实践，鼓励可再生能源转型，以及加强人类发展以抑制生态足迹。

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引用次数: 0

The world population development according to a dynamic extension of the Wicksellian production function 世界人口的发展是根据维克塞尔生产函数的一个动态扩展

Sustainability Analytics and Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.samod.2024.100035

Robert W. Grubbström

Based on UN figures for the World Population Development combined with the Wicksellian production function, we develop expressions for how the population development depends on capital (saved income) and the maximisation of future discounted per capita consumption.

We prefer to adopt the term Wicksellian function, rather than the widely used name Cobb-Douglas function, since it was first published by Knut Wicksell (1851 - 1926) and two years after his death, the same function was published by Charles W. Cobb and Paul H. Douglas, (Wicksell 1916, Cobb and Douglas 1928, Olsson 1971).

In a recent paper the Wicksellian production function has been extended by means of the Calculus of Variations to take care of the fact that the production factor capital is an accumulation of previously saved income, which is a result of previous production activities, (Grubbström 2024). There, the population development was assumed as given. Instead, in this paper using the same method, it is assumed to be a consequence of the opportunity to consume that is offered by labour and capital according to this production function.

It is shown that if the population develops in this “natural” way, then there is no risk for any Malthusian Catastrophe, and that the living standard of the population (consumption per capita) will grow at a rate determined by the discount rate times the propensity to save, but the size of the population will decrease, once it has reached its peak (at the end of this current century).

We also show that with our approach, the propensity to consume is the weight of labour input in the Wicksellian function (apart from earlier interpretations of this weight).

Our approach is analogous to Hamilton's principle of stationary action for finding the behaviour of dynamical mechanical systems in a general configuration space.

基于联合国关于世界人口发展的数据，结合威克塞尔生产函数，我们开发了人口发展如何依赖于资本（储蓄收入）和未来人均消费贴现最大化的表达式。我们更倾向于采用Wicksellian函数，而不是广泛使用的名称Cobb-Douglas函数，因为它是由Knut Wicksell（1851 - 1926）首次发表的，在他去世两年后，Charles W. Cobb和Paul H. Douglas发表了相同的函数（Wicksell 1916， Cobb和Douglas 1928， Olsson 1971）。在最近的一篇论文中，Wicksellian生产函数通过变分法进行了扩展，以考虑到生产要素资本是以前节省的收入的积累，这是以前的生产活动的结果，（Grubbström 2024）。其中，人口发展假定为给定。相反，在本文中，使用相同的方法，假设它是劳动力和资本根据该生产函数提供的消费机会的结果。它表明，如果人口以这种“自然”方式发展，那么就没有任何马尔萨斯灾难的风险，人口的生活水平（人均消费）将以贴现率乘以储蓄倾向决定的速度增长，但人口规模将减少，一旦达到峰值（在本世纪末）。我们还表明，通过我们的方法，消费倾向是Wicksellian函数中劳动投入的权重（除了早先对该权重的解释）。我们的方法类似于Hamilton的静态作用原理，用于在一般位形空间中寻找动力机械系统的行为。

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引用次数: 0

Editorial sustainability in retail supply chains: Making a better world in retailing from sourcing to consumption 零售供应链中的编辑可持续性：从采购到消费创造一个更美好的零售世界

Sustainability Analytics and Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.samod.2024.100032

Alexander Hübner , Heinrich Kuhn , Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber

引用次数: 0

An integrated inventory model for a supply chain system with two competing retailers, carbon emissions, and price-and-service dependent demand 具有两个相互竞争的零售商、碳排放以及价格与服务相关需求的供应链系统的综合库存模型

Sustainability Analytics and Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.samod.2024.100029

Wakhid Ahmad Jauhari , Ivan Darma Wangsa , Amanda Sofiana , Dana Marsetiya Utama

This study develops a mathematical model for a supply chain system with a single supplier and two competing retailers. The selling price and service level are two aspects determining the demand. Investments in service level are also considered to enhance the service environment in the stores. Both parties in the supply chain system employ a periodic review policy to regulate the inventory level in a stochastic setting. This study includes a carbon tax regulation to reduce emissions in the observed system. The proposed model contributes to the current inventory literature by allowing the inclusion of price and service-dependent demand, competition between two retailers, investment in service level, and carbon emissions. The objective of this study is to maximize the joint total profit by optimizing the selling price, service level, safety factor, review period, and number of shipments. An algorithm is developed to solve the proposed problem and its application is validated with a numerical example. The results show that retailers' demand level, selling price, and service are sensitive to emissions and profit. Additionally, investment and carbon tax regulations are effective in raising service levels and reducing emissions, respectively. This research can help decision-makers select the optimal action to improve the effectiveness of the supply chain system, optimize product sales, and emphasize environmental considerations.

本研究建立了一个单一供应商和两个相互竞争的零售商的供应链系统数学模型。销售价格和服务水平是决定需求的两个方面。此外，还考虑对服务水平进行投资，以改善商店的服务环境。供应链系统中的双方都采用定期审查政策来调节随机环境下的库存水平。本研究包括碳税法规，以减少观察系统中的排放。所提出的模型允许纳入价格和服务依赖型需求、两家零售商之间的竞争、服务水平投资和碳排放，从而为当前的库存文献做出了贡献。本研究的目标是通过优化销售价格、服务水平、安全系数、审查期和发货数量，实现联合总利润最大化。我们开发了一种算法来解决所提出的问题，并通过一个数值实例验证了算法的应用。结果表明，零售商的需求水平、销售价格和服务对排放量和利润非常敏感。此外，投资和碳税法规分别能有效提高服务水平和减少排放。这项研究可以帮助决策者选择最佳行动，以提高供应链系统的效率，优化产品销售，并重视环境因素。

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引用次数: 0

Network-based method for assessing multi-modal transportation network vulnerability to cascading failures 基于网络的多式联运网络级联故障脆弱性评估方法

Sustainability Analytics and Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.samod.2024.100034

Jingran Sun , Kyle Bathgate , Shidong Pan , Zhanmin Zhang

Transportation systems are vulnerable to disruptive events such as natural disasters, industrial accidents, terrorist attacks, and climate change. Vulnerability assessment is necessary to understand the impacts of these disruptive events, identify underlying deficiencies within the network, and improve transportation system resilience. Multi-modal transportation networks are often interdependent and form a “system of systems”, which creates a susceptibility to cascading indirect impacts within the integrated transportation network. Accurately modeling these interdependencies typically requires a large amount of data, such as traffic flow and travel demand information for transportation systems, which may not be available or accessible. This paper proposes a network topology-based framework to conduct an interdependent transportation network vulnerability analysis by introducing an algorithm to simulate cascading failures across transport systems. The proposed framework estimates the vulnerability of the network with respect to a specific hazard, combining the network topology and the functional attributes of the transportation infrastructure components. A case study with real-world data is conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the framework to the Houston freight transportation network, and to understand the network performance under different scenarios. This study presents an alternate method that stakeholders may use to assess interdependent transportation network vulnerability when more detailed flow-based data is not available.

交通系统容易受到自然灾害、工业事故、恐怖袭击和气候变化等破坏性事件的影响。脆弱性评估是必要的，以了解这些破坏性事件的影响，识别网络中的潜在缺陷，并提高运输系统的弹性。多式联运网络往往是相互依存的，并形成一个“系统的系统”，这在综合运输网络中造成了对级联间接影响的敏感性。准确地对这些相互依赖性进行建模通常需要大量的数据，例如交通流量和运输系统的旅行需求信息，这些数据可能无法获得或访问。本文提出了一个基于网络拓扑的框架，通过引入一种算法来模拟跨运输系统的级联故障，从而进行相互依赖的运输网络脆弱性分析。所提出的框架结合网络拓扑结构和交通基础设施组件的功能属性，估计网络相对于特定危害的脆弱性。通过实际数据的案例研究，验证了该框架在休斯顿货运网络中的适用性，并了解了不同场景下的网络性能。本研究提出了一种替代方法，当没有更详细的基于流量的数据时，利益相关者可以使用该方法来评估相互依赖的交通网络脆弱性。

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引用次数: 0

Statistical analysis of total quality management employees, customers, suppliers, and management dimensions in hotel industries in Jaipur city, Rajasthan, India 印度拉贾斯坦邦斋浦尔市酒店业员工、客户、供应商和管理部门全面质量管理统计分析

Sustainability Analytics and Modeling

Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.samod.2024.100033

Dharmendra Hariyani , Poonam Hariyani , Sanjeev Mishra , Milind Kumar Sharma

With the market competition, hotel industries focus on the quality requirements of customers and the market. To build total quality management (TQM) in the hotel industry value chain, the hotel industries are focusing on the customers, suppliers, employees, and management dimensions of TQM. The purpose of this study is to analyze the priorities of these TQM dimensions or philosophies in hotel industries in Jaipur City, Rajasthan, India. The study adopts a survey approach for identifying the priorities given by the hotel industries to build total quality management in the hotel value chain. The results show that the hotel industries weigh all four dimensions for total quality management. The customers’ dimensions are the first and most important dimension, then management dimensions, then employees’ dimensions, and the suppliers’ dimensions for total quality management in hotel industries. A collaborative strategic approach by the hotel management, involving customers, suppliers, and employees, has to be adopted to design the hotel industry value chain to meet the business sustainability requirements, and customers’ requirements, and to gain the competitive advantage of TQM. The study also highlights that integration of sustainability with the TQM framework is essential for the hotel industry as it enhances operational efficiency and reduces environmental impact. This approach will support long-term profitability and align with increasing customer demand for sustainable practices in the tourism and hospitality sector.

随着市场竞争的加剧，酒店业开始关注客户和市场对质量的要求。为了在酒店业价值链中建立全面质量管理（TQM），酒店业关注全面质量管理的顾客、供应商、员工和管理维度。本研究旨在分析印度拉贾斯坦邦斋浦尔市酒店业这些全面质量管理维度或理念的优先次序。本研究采用调查方法确定酒店业在酒店价值链中建立全面质量管理的优先次序。结果表明，酒店业对全面质量管理的四个维度都进行了权衡。顾客维度是酒店业全面质量管理的首要和最重要的维度，然后是管理维度、员工维度和供应商维度。酒店管理层必须采取一种由顾客、供应商和员工共同参与的协作战略方法，设计酒店业价值链，以满足业务可持续发展的要求和顾客的要求，并获得全面质量管理的竞争优势。研究还强调，可持续发展与全面质量管理框架的整合对酒店业至关重要，因为它能提高运营效率，减少对环境的影响。这种方法将支持长期盈利能力，并符合旅游业和酒店业客户对可持续发展实践日益增长的需求。

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引用次数: 0