Pub Date : 1970-03-01DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(70)90030-X
Joseph P. Martino (Lt. Col. USAF)
{"title":"The precision of Delphi estimates","authors":"Joseph P. Martino (Lt. Col. USAF)","doi":"10.1016/0099-3964(70)90030-X","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0099-3964(70)90030-X","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":101211,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting","volume":"1 3","pages":"Pages 293-299"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1970-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0099-3964(70)90030-X","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77979277","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1970-03-01DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(70)90018-9
E.N. Dodson
This paper presents a general approach to quantitative assessment of the state of the art (SOA) and advances in SOA. SOA is defined in terms of selected physical and performance characteristics, and advances are measured in relation to identified SOA “surfaces.” An example of the approach as applied to solid-propellant rocket motors is given, together with a discussion of some limitations of the approach.
{"title":"A general approach to measurement of the state of the art and technological advance","authors":"E.N. Dodson","doi":"10.1016/0099-3964(70)90018-9","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0099-3964(70)90018-9","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This paper presents a general approach to quantitative assessment of the state of the art (SOA) and advances in SOA. SOA is defined in terms of selected physical and performance characteristics, and advances are measured in relation to identified SOA “surfaces.” An example of the approach as applied to solid-propellant rocket motors is given, together with a discussion of some limitations of the approach.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101211,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting","volume":"1 4","pages":"Pages 391-408"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1970-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0099-3964(70)90018-9","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77705786","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1970-03-01DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(70)90028-1
Harold A. Linstone
The position of the United States in the past quarter century can be traced in no small part to its large and advanced system of higher education. The academic establishment has been at the forefront, providing the country with its most important resource: trained and knowledgeable manpower. But trouble looms and in a nightmare we are apt to have a vision reminiscent of the well-known cartoon which shows a crowd of running people trailed by one man desperately exclaiming: “There go my people. I must follow them for I am their leader.”
In the next quarter century the widening chasm between progress in technology and the social/behavioral sciences threatens to wreak havoc in the United States. And the same pattern may subsequently be repeated in the other advanced countries. The challenge posed to the leadership of the academic community is awesome indeed. With this paper, we hope to intensify the dialogue on the role university in reducing the chasm and thereby helping to propel the country toward the era of the post-industrial society.
{"title":"A university for the postindustrial society","authors":"Harold A. Linstone","doi":"10.1016/0099-3964(70)90028-1","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0099-3964(70)90028-1","url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The position of the United States in the past quarter century can be traced in no small part to its large and advanced system of higher education. The academic establishment has been at the forefront, providing the country with its most important resource: trained and knowledgeable manpower. But trouble looms and in a nightmare we are apt to have a vision reminiscent of the well-known cartoon which shows a crowd of running people trailed by one man desperately exclaiming: “There go my people. I must follow them for I am their leader.”</p><p>In the next quarter century the widening chasm between progress in technology and the social/behavioral sciences threatens to wreak havoc in the United States. And the same pattern may subsequently be repeated in the other advanced countries. The challenge posed to the leadership of the academic community is awesome indeed. With this paper, we hope to intensify the dialogue on the role university in reducing the chasm and thereby helping to propel the country toward the era of the post-industrial society.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":101211,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting","volume":"1 3","pages":"Pages 263-281"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1970-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0099-3964(70)90028-1","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85208679","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1970-03-01DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(70)90029-3
N. Dalkey, B. Brown, S. Cochran
{"title":"Use of self-ratings to improve group estimates: Experimental evaluation of delphi procedures","authors":"N. Dalkey, B. Brown, S. Cochran","doi":"10.1016/0099-3964(70)90029-3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/0099-3964(70)90029-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":101211,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting","volume":"33 1 1","pages":"283-291"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1970-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88986628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1970-03-01DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(70)90015-3
Dirk Beckerhoff
{"title":"Goal systems for governmental R & D planning","authors":"Dirk Beckerhoff","doi":"10.1016/0099-3964(70)90015-3","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0099-3964(70)90015-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":101211,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting","volume":"1 4","pages":"Pages 363-369"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1970-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0099-3964(70)90015-3","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89925420","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1969-09-01DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(69)90016-7
Erich Jantsch
{"title":"New organizational forms for forecasting","authors":"Erich Jantsch","doi":"10.1016/0099-3964(69)90016-7","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0099-3964(69)90016-7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":101211,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting","volume":"1 2","pages":"Pages 151-161"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1969-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0099-3964(69)90016-7","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74720767","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1969-09-01DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(69)90021-0
{"title":"The establishment of a national goals research staff","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/0099-3964(69)90021-0","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/0099-3964(69)90021-0","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":101211,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting","volume":"1 2","pages":"Pages 217-218"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1969-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0099-3964(69)90021-0","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"137259848","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1969-09-01DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(69)90014-3
Corresponding Member Vladimir Chavchanidze (Director)
{"title":"Induction of psychointellectual activity in long-term forecasting and planning of research: Psychoheuristic programming","authors":"Corresponding Member Vladimir Chavchanidze (Director)","doi":"10.1016/0099-3964(69)90014-3","DOIUrl":"10.1016/0099-3964(69)90014-3","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":101211,"journal":{"name":"Technological Forecasting","volume":"1 2","pages":"Pages 129-139"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1969-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/0099-3964(69)90014-3","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86426985","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}