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Technological Forecasting最新文献

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Toward a methodology for systemic forecasting 走向系统预测的方法论
Pub Date : 1970-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(70)90019-0
Erich Jantsch
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引用次数: 3
The precision of Delphi estimates 德尔菲估计的精度
Pub Date : 1970-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(70)90030-X
Joseph P. Martino (Lt. Col. USAF)
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引用次数: 38
A general approach to measurement of the state of the art and technological advance 一种衡量技术发展状况和技术进步的通用方法
Pub Date : 1970-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(70)90018-9
E.N. Dodson

This paper presents a general approach to quantitative assessment of the state of the art (SOA) and advances in SOA. SOA is defined in terms of selected physical and performance characteristics, and advances are measured in relation to identified SOA “surfaces.” An example of the approach as applied to solid-propellant rocket motors is given, together with a discussion of some limitations of the approach.

本文提供了一种对当前技术(SOA)和SOA进展进行定量评估的通用方法。SOA是根据选定的物理和性能特征来定义的,并且进展是根据确定的SOA“表面”来衡量的。文中给出了该方法在固体推进剂火箭发动机上的应用实例,并讨论了该方法的一些局限性。
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引用次数: 29
A university for the postindustrial society 后工业社会的大学
Pub Date : 1970-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(70)90028-1
Harold A. Linstone

The position of the United States in the past quarter century can be traced in no small part to its large and advanced system of higher education. The academic establishment has been at the forefront, providing the country with its most important resource: trained and knowledgeable manpower. But trouble looms and in a nightmare we are apt to have a vision reminiscent of the well-known cartoon which shows a crowd of running people trailed by one man desperately exclaiming: “There go my people. I must follow them for I am their leader.”

In the next quarter century the widening chasm between progress in technology and the social/behavioral sciences threatens to wreak havoc in the United States. And the same pattern may subsequently be repeated in the other advanced countries. The challenge posed to the leadership of the academic community is awesome indeed. With this paper, we hope to intensify the dialogue on the role university in reducing the chasm and thereby helping to propel the country toward the era of the post-industrial society.

美国在过去25年的地位在很大程度上可以追溯到其庞大而先进的高等教育体系。学术机构一直走在前列,为国家提供了最重要的资源:训练有素、知识渊博的人力资源。但麻烦隐现,在噩梦中,我们容易联想到一幅著名的漫画:一群人在后面跑,一个人绝望地喊道:“我的人去了。”我必须跟随他们,因为我是他们的领袖。”在接下来的25年里,技术进步与社会/行为科学之间日益扩大的鸿沟有可能在美国造成严重破坏。同样的模式可能随后在其他发达国家重演。对学术界领导的挑战确实令人敬畏。通过本文,我们希望加强关于大学在缩小鸿沟中的作用的对话,从而帮助推动国家走向后工业社会时代。
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引用次数: 10
Use of self-ratings to improve group estimates: Experimental evaluation of delphi procedures 使用自评来改善群体估计:德尔菲程序的实验评估
Pub Date : 1970-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(70)90029-3
N. Dalkey, B. Brown, S. Cochran
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引用次数: 126
Goal systems for governmental R & D planning 政府研发规划的目标体系
Pub Date : 1970-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(70)90015-3
Dirk Beckerhoff
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引用次数: 1
New organizational forms for forecasting 预测的新组织形式
Pub Date : 1969-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(69)90016-7
Erich Jantsch
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引用次数: 3
Technological forecasting and policymaking reform 技术预测与决策改革
Pub Date : 1969-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(69)90012-X
Yehezkel Dror (Senior Professional Sfaff Member)
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引用次数: 1
The establishment of a national goals research staff 建立一支国家级目标研究队伍
Pub Date : 1969-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(69)90021-0
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引用次数: 0
Induction of psychointellectual activity in long-term forecasting and planning of research: Psychoheuristic programming 长期预测和研究计划中心理智力活动的诱导:心理启发式规划
Pub Date : 1969-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/0099-3964(69)90014-3
Corresponding Member Vladimir Chavchanidze (Director)
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引用次数: 2
期刊
Technological Forecasting
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