The global coffee sector faces heightened risk, with production concentrated in a few countries, yields stagnating or declining, and climate change projected to shrink suitable growing areas. Using data from 41 major coffee-producing countries in the Global South, we develop scenario-based projections of demand growth, climate impacts, and shifts in market shares, and apply an economic model linking yield growth to research and development (R&D) investments to estimate the investment gap. Current coffee R&D spending—about $140 million annually (2020 USD)—is well below the level suggested by coffee’s share in agricultural output. Across six demand–climate scenarios and two supply diversity assumptions, we estimate that an additional $10–$225 million per year would be needed if production becomes more concentrated, and $126–$405 million to maintain current diversity. Most new investment would be required in historically underfunded regions—Asia (excluding Vietnam), Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean (excluding Brazil and Colombia)—where productivity gains are costlier but vital for sustaining supply. Closing this gap is both affordable and urgent: in a $200 billion industry, the cost is negligible for consumers yet critical for safeguarding diverse origins, protecting smallholder incomes, and averting deforestation. Achieving it will require coordinated financing—through producer/import levies, public–private partnerships, and regional research consortia—targeted to underfunded regions. Without such action, the future of coffee will be less diverse, less resilient, and more vulnerable to climate shocks.
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