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Global exposure to climate change at a subnational jurisdiction level 次国家管辖层面的全球气候变化风险
Pub Date : 2024-06-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2024.100168
Michaël Goujon , Olivier Santoni , Laurent Wagner

In the context of climate change, there is a need to identify the most vulnerable "hotspots" to the various risks that should attract the most attention from analysts and decision-makers. In this paper, we focus on territories’ exposure to the main consequences of climate change, considering both intensity and the level of physical exposure to main climate change hazards. We propose a composite indicator that can be computed globally but at the sub-national level, covering 47,138 administrative units in the World (all land but Antarctica). It should be helpful as a first step to assess risks for countries characterized by high geoclimatic diversity but also transboundary risks. It would help identify the most vulnerable subnational administrative units and serve as one tool for adaptation planning.

在气候变化的背景下,有必要确定最容易受到各种风险影响的 "热点 "地区,这些地区应引起分析人员和决策者的高度重视。在本文中,我们将重点关注各地区受气候变化主要后果影响的程度,同时考虑主要气候变化危害的强度和实际影响水平。我们提出了一个综合指标,该指标可在全球范围内计算,但也可在国家以下层面计算,涵盖全球 47 138 个行政单位(除南极洲外的所有陆地)。作为评估具有高度地理气候多样性和跨界风险特点的国家风险的第一步,该指标应有所帮助。它将有助于确定最脆弱的国家以下一级行政单位,并作为适应规划的一个工具。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of agricultural credit on coffee productivity in Kenya 农业信贷对肯尼亚咖啡生产率的影响
Pub Date : 2024-06-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2024.100166
Richard Wamalwa Wanzala , Nyankomo Marwa , Elizabeth Nanziri Lwanga

Historically, agricultural credit programs have been used as a policy instrument to improve agricultural productivity and livelihoods of smallholder farmers. The effectiveness of such credit programs has been widely deliberated with an opaque unanimity being reached since yield is stochastic. Therefore, this study examines the impact of agricultural credit provided by the Government of Kenya as an intervention to boost coffee productivity. Over the years, there has been little – if any – in-depth analysis that has been dedicated to establishing the impact of this agricultural credit on coffee productivity. This study surveyed 174 smallholder coffee farmers (participants and non-participants in the credit program) in Kiambu County in Kenya between 2015 and 2019. The paper espouses the DEA Malmquist index to estimate the efficiency of coffee productivity for participating and non-participating coffee farmers in the credit program. The empirical results disclose that participating farmers had the highest geomean for productivity change (152 %), efficiency change (40.5 %), technical change (53.2 %) and scale efficiency (40.5 %). Bayesian Modelling Average was used to assess determinants of coffee productivity. Bayesian Modelling Average (BMA) was used to assess determinants of coffee productivity. The findings from BMA analysis indicated that variety, education, extension visits and crop system had a positive impact on coffee productivity. Gender and age of farmer had a negative impact on coffee productivity. Thus, these insights from the empirical work would be instrumental in providing policy directions in terms of agricultural lending and crafting policies aimed at enhancing the efficiency of coffee productivity.

从历史上看,农业信贷计划一直被用作提高农业生产力和改善小农生计的政策工具。由于产量具有随机性,因此此类信贷计划的有效性一直受到广泛讨论,但达成的一致意见并不透明。因此,本研究探讨了肯尼亚政府提供的农业信贷对提高咖啡生产率的影响。多年来,专门用于确定农业信贷对咖啡生产率影响的深入分析即使有,也是少之又少。本研究在 2015 年至 2019 年期间调查了肯尼亚基安布县的 174 名小农咖啡种植者(信贷计划的参与者和非参与者)。本文采用 DEA Malmquist 指数来估算参与和未参与信贷计划的咖啡种植农的咖啡生产效率。实证结果表明,参与计划的农户在生产率变化(152%)、效率变化(40.5%)、技术变化(53.2%)和规模效率(40.5%)方面的平均值最高。贝叶斯平均模型用于评估咖啡生产率的决定因素。贝叶斯平均模型(BMA)用于评估咖啡生产率的决定因素。贝叶斯平均模型分析结果表明,品种、教育、推广访问和作物系统对咖啡生产率有积极影响。农民的性别和年龄对咖啡生产率有负面影响。因此,实证研究的这些见解将有助于在农业贷款方面提供政策指导,并有助于制定旨在提高咖啡生产效率的政策。
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引用次数: 0
Factor productivity nexus economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Symmetric and asymmetric panel approaches 撒哈拉以南非洲的要素生产率与经济增长的关系:对称和非对称面板方法
Pub Date : 2024-06-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2024.100169
Urgaia R. Worku

This study examines the effect and role of total factor productivity with other major determinants on economic growth in the Sub – Saharan Africa(SSA).It employs the data obtained from the World Bank Development Indicators spanning from 1990 to 2022 using panel ARDL, GMM and their extended asymmetric non-linear (NARDL) and (NGMM) models. The NARDL and NGMM are more superior to the counterpart ARDL and GMM symmetric models in the long-run than the short-run estimation, ensuring more efficient and reliable information regarding the effects of productivity on economic growth analysis. Finally, the robust dynamic inter-temporal Granger causality tests show that asymmetrically there is bi-directional causality between the growth rate of an upward movement in total factor productivity and real GDP. There is also bi-directional causality of a downward movement in the growth rate of the terms of trade and real GDP growth rate. The empirical findings of the study are extremely important indicators for sustained economic growth in the SSA region. Hence, this research work recommends that governments should enhance total factor productivity and terms of trade through job-trainning provision and promote trading among themselves as policy tools.

本研究探讨了全要素生产率及其他主要决定因素对撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)经济增长的影响和作用。研究采用了从世界银行发展指标中获取的数据,时间跨度为 1990 年至 2022 年,使用了面板 ARDL、GMM 及其扩展的非对称非线性(NARDL)和(NGMM)模型。与对应的 ARDL 和 GMM 对称模型相比,NARDL 和 NGMM 的长期估算优于短期估算,从而确保在生产力对经济增长的影响分析方面获得更有效、更可靠的信息。最后,稳健的动态时际格兰杰因果检验表明,全要素生产率上升的增长率与实际 GDP 之间存在非对称的双向因果关系。贸易条件增长率的下降与实际 GDP 增长率之间也存在双向因果关系。研究的实证结果是促进撒哈拉以南非洲地区经济持续增长的极其重要的指标。因此,这项研究工作建议各国政府应通过提供就业培训来提高全要素生产率和贸易条件,并将促进相互之间的贸易作为政策工具。
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引用次数: 0
Social capital enhances the resilience of agricultural cooperatives: Comparative case studies in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam 社会资本增强了农业合作社的抗灾能力:越南湄公河三角洲的比较案例研究
Pub Date : 2024-06-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2024.100170
Hieu Hong Hua , Peter R. Brown

Agricultural cooperatives play an important role in increasing rice production and contribute to the rural economy of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, but their resilience can be influenced by community governance and the social capital of members. This study investigated the comparative importance of social capital of members in two agricultural cooperatives in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam. We focused on two primary research questions: (1) How has social capital influenced the resilience of agricultural cooperatives for rice production? (2) What key factors influenced social capital in the two cooperatives? The study applied qualitative and quantitative data collection methods including focus group discussions, in-depth interviews, and household surveys. Measures of social capital of members in the cooperative in An Giang scored higher than that of members in the cooperative in Can Tho. Our study found that low levels of education amongst members and weak bonding social capital between subgroups with different social networks and different farming outputs in the same cooperative were two key factors impacting adversely on the resilience of the two cooperatives. Trust was revealed to be a very important component of successful ACs. These are critical areas that need to be addressed by policy makers in order to improve the community governance and resilience of rice farming cooperatives in the Mekong Delta.

农业合作社在提高水稻产量方面发挥着重要作用,并为越南湄公河三角洲的农村经济做出了贡献,但其复原力可能会受到社区治理和成员社会资本的影响。本研究调查了越南湄公河三角洲两个农业合作社成员社会资本的比较重要性。我们关注两个主要研究问题:(1) 社会资本如何影响农业合作社水稻生产的恢复力?(2)影响这两个合作社社会资本的关键因素是什么?研究采用了定性和定量数据收集方法,包括焦点小组讨论、深度访谈和家庭调查。安江省合作社成员的社会资本得分高于芹苴省合作社成员。我们的研究发现,社员受教育程度低,以及同一合作社中具有不同社会网络和不同农业产出的亚群之间的社会资本纽带薄弱,是对这两个合作社的抗灾能力产生不利影响的两个关键因素。信任是成功合作社的一个非常重要的组成部分。这些都是决策者需要解决的关键问题,以改善湄公河三角洲水稻种植合作社的社区治理和恢复能力。
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引用次数: 0
Sustainability in Vietnam: Examining economic growth, energy, innovation, agriculture, and forests' impact on CO2 emissions 越南的可持续性:考察经济增长、能源、创新、农业和森林对二氧化碳排放的影响
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2024.100164
Asif Raihan , Md. Atik Hasan , Liton Chandra Voumik , Dulal Chandra Pattak , Salma Akter , Mohammad Ridwan

Global warming, induced by human-generated greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide (CO2), threatens the planet's ecology, economic development, and long-term viability in unparalleled ways. Vietnam's utilization of energy and CO2 emanations are on the increase as a consequence of the country's increasing economic and improving agricultural practices. Governments seeking to accomplish an equilibrium between combating climate change and sustainable development would benefit from a deeper understanding of Vietnam's climate change vulnerability. A better understanding of the trade-off between pollution and economic growth is crucial if Vietnam is to slow the rate at which its environment is being damaged. So, the current study empirically examined the connections between GDP development, energy consumption, technical advancement, agricultural output, forest region, and carbon dioxide emissions in Vietnam. This study collected annual data from 1990 to 2020 and analyzed it using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares method. Based on the projection, Vietnam experiences a direct correlation between energy consumption and CO2 emissions. This implies that an increase in energy consumption and economic growth corresponds to a corresponding emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Nevertheless, it is essential to acknowledge that this pattern might be alleviated by means of technological innovations, increased agricultural output, and initiatives to broaden forested regions. A negative correlation exists between these variables and CO2 emissions; technological innovations, more sustainable agricultural methods, and forest preservation initiatives may contribute to the gradual reduction of CO2 emissions. Therefore, environmental sustainability could be achieved through reduced emissions if the policies advocated in this article were implemented. Some of these policies include using renewable energy sources, encouraging innovations in technology, encouraging climate-conscious agriculture, and encouraging careful forest management.

由人类产生的温室气体,尤其是二氧化碳(CO2)引起的全球变暖,对地球的生态、经济发展和长期生存能力构成了前所未有的威胁。随着越南经济的发展和农业生产方式的改进,越南的能源利用率和二氧化碳排放量都在不断增加。各国政府若想在应对气候变化和可持续发展之间取得平衡,就必须深入了解越南在气候变化方面的脆弱性。越南要想减缓环境破坏的速度,就必须更好地理解污染与经济增长之间的权衡。因此,本研究对越南的 GDP 发展、能源消耗、技术进步、农业产出、森林面积和二氧化碳排放量之间的联系进行了实证研究。本研究收集了 1990 年至 2020 年的年度数据,并使用动态普通最小二乘法进行了分析。根据预测,越南的能源消耗与二氧化碳排放量之间存在直接关联。这意味着,能源消耗和经济增长的增加会相应地向大气中排放二氧化碳。然而,必须承认的是,这种模式可以通过技术创新、提高农业产量和扩大林区面积等措施得到缓解。这些变量与二氧化碳排放量之间存在负相关关系;技术创新、更可持续的农业方法和森林保护措施可能有助于逐步减少二氧化碳排放量。因此,如果本文所倡导的政策得以实施,就可以通过减少排放来实现环境的可持续发展。其中一些政策包括使用可再生能源、鼓励技术创新、鼓励注重气候的农业以及鼓励谨慎的森林管理。
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引用次数: 0
Volumetric pricing in rural Central America: Drivers of adoption and potential effects on water delivery 中美洲农村地区的计量定价:采用的驱动因素和对供水的潜在影响
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2024.100163
Róger Madrigal-Ballestero , Katrina Mullan , Eduardo Pacay , Subhrendu K. Pattanayak , Juan Robalino , Pablo Evia

In rural and peri‑urban areas of Central America, community water organizations (CWOs) provide water to 60 % of the population, thereby playing a pivotal role in achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals. However, the underlying environmental, climatic, and institutional factors explaining the adoption of volumetric pricing from these water providers and its effect on service delivery are typically overlooked in the literature. In this paper, we address two issues. First, we test whether volumetric pricing affects the service water delivery in a rural setting, drawing on a random sample of cross-sectional data on 154 CWOs in Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Nicaragua. We find that volumetric pricing is associated with substantially more successful water delivery, even when conditioned on institutional capacity, environmental attributes, climatic conditions, and country-fixed effects. Despite this strong relationship, volumetric pricing has yet to be widely adopted, particularly in Nicaragua and Guatemala. Therefore, as the second goal, we try to identify the institutional and socio-ecological conditions in which volumetric pricing is adopted. We find that volumetric pricing is more likely used when communities (1) experience adverse environmental and climatic conditions associated with water scarcity and (2) have greater institutional capacity. Our results highlight the importance of examining the social-ecological system to assess the performance and adoption of water management institutions

在中美洲的农村和城郊地区,社区供水组织(CWOs)为 60% 的人口供水,从而在实现多个可持续发展目标方面发挥了关键作用。然而,文献中通常忽略了这些供水机构采用按量定价的基本环境、气候和制度因素及其对提供服务的影响。在本文中,我们将探讨两个问题。首先,我们利用哥斯达黎加、危地马拉和尼加拉瓜 154 个社区供水公司的横截面随机抽样数据,检验了计量定价是否会影响农村地区的供水服务。我们发现,即使以机构能力、环境属性、气候条件和国家固定效应为条件,按量定价也与更成功的供水服务相关。尽管存在这种密切关系,但按量定价尚未被广泛采用,尤其是在尼加拉瓜和危地马拉。因此,作为第二个目标,我们试图确定采用体积定价的制度和社会生态条件。我们发现,当社区(1)经历了与缺水相关的不利环境和气候条件,(2)拥有更强的机构能力时,更有可能采用按体积定价。我们的研究结果凸显了研究社会生态系统对评估水资源管理机构的绩效和采用情况的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Erratum to “Food systems science for peace and security: Is research for development key for achieving systematic change?” [World Development Sustainability (2022), Volume 1, 100004] 粮食系统科学促进和平与安全:研究促进发展是实现系统变革的关键吗?[《世界发展可持续性》(2022 年),第 1 卷,第 100004 期]
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2024.100171
Theresa Liebig , Grazia Pacillo , Diego Osorio , Peter Läderach
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引用次数: 0
Effects of FDI, GDP and energy use on ecological footprint in Finland: An ARDL approach 外国直接投资、国内生产总值和能源使用对芬兰生态足迹的影响:ARDL 方法
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2024.100157
Irina Georgescu , Jani Kinnunen

Each economy faces the challenge of escalating carbon emissions, a factor which leads to environmental degradation. This study explores the impact of GDP per capita, FDI and energy use on ecological footprint in Finland during 1990–2021 using the ARDL model and checks the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Three hypotheses were proposed and empirically tested. The long-run ARDL dynamics show that: (i) GDP negatively influences ecological footprint; (ii) FDI negatively impacts ecological footprint; (iii) energy use positively influences ecological footprint. Another result of the paper is the existence of a U-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve between GDP and ecological footprint. The findings are deliberated along with policy implications and proposed avenues for future research.

每个经济体都面临着碳排放不断攀升的挑战,这是导致环境退化的一个因素。本研究使用 ARDL 模型探讨了 1990-2021 年间人均 GDP、外国直接投资和能源使用对芬兰生态足迹的影响,并检验了环境库兹涅茨曲线的存在性。提出了三个假设并进行了实证检验。长期 ARDL 动态结果显示(i) 国内生产总值对生态足迹有负面影响;(ii) 外国直接投资对生态足迹有负面影响;(iii) 能源使用对生态足迹有正面影响。论文的另一个结果是,国内生产总值与生态足迹之间存在 U 型环境库兹涅茨曲线。本文讨论了这些研究结果以及政策影响,并提出了未来研究的途径。
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引用次数: 0
Professional networks and access to extension as drivers of sustainable agricultural practices among Ghanaian oil palm farmers 专业网络和推广机会是加纳油棕榈树种植农可持续农业实践的驱动因素
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2024.100160
Oscar Ampofo , Emile Mawutor Tsekpo , Nathaniel Amoh Boateng

Increasing agricultural productivity through the uptake of sustainable agricultural practices (SAPs) offers a credible pathway to addressing food insecurity while preserving vital ecosystem resources, as such, factors that drive farmers' decisions to adopt these SAPs need examination. Most extant studies, on the adoption of SAPs, however, tend to place emphasis on socioeconomic incentives, giving little attention to the role of professional networks and institutional factors especially on oil palm which has strong links to deforestation and reduction in tree cover despite the numerous economic benefits. Using cross-sectional data from six oil palm producing regions in Ghana, this study analyses the role of producer membership, links with institutions such as NGOs, and extension access in the adoption of improved seeds, fertilizers, pest management practices, soil and moisture conservation practices, and legume cover crops among oil palm farmers in Ghana. The study employs a multivariate probit model to examine the probability of adopting SAPs and a poisson regression to model the intensity of SAPs adopted. The study also uses the instrumental variable approach to circumvent the issue of endogeneity. Results indicate that these networks and institutions significantly affect farmers’ adoption of SAPs. The study also finds heterogeneous associations with the adoption decisions depending on the type of innovation. In particular, we show evidence that farmers’ link with formal institutions is negatively associated with the adoption of diverse input intensive technologies, whereas it is positively associated with the adoption of natural resource management technologies. However, we find a consistent positive association of membership of producer organization on the adoption of different SAPs except legume cover cropping. Though differing relationships, we find that extension access and membership of producer organization are significantly associated with the intensity of SAPs adoption. Taken together, our findings suggest an integrated approach by the actors in the promotion of SAPs.

通过采用可持续农业实践(SAPs)提高农业生产率为解决粮食不安全问题提供了一条可靠的途径,同时也保护了重要的生态系统资源。然而,大多数关于采用 SAP 的现有研究都倾向于强调社会经济激励因素,而很少关注专业网络和制度因素的作用,尤其是油棕榈树,尽管它具有众多经济效益,但却与森林砍伐和树木覆盖率下降有着密切联系。本研究利用加纳六个油棕榈产区的横截面数据,分析了生产者成员资格、与非政府组织等机构的联系以及推广渠道在加纳油棕榈种植者采用改良种子、肥料、病虫害管理方法、土壤和水分保持方法以及豆科覆盖作物方面的作用。本研究采用多元概率模型来考察采用 SAP 的概率,并采用泊松回归法来模拟采用 SAP 的强度。研究还采用了工具变量法来规避内生性问题。结果表明,这些网络和机构对农民采用 SAP 有重大影响。研究还发现,根据创新类型的不同,农民采用 SAP 的决策也会受到不同程度的影响。特别是,我们有证据表明,农民与正规机构的联系与采用各种投入密集型技术呈负相关,而与采用自然资源管理技术呈正相关。然而,我们发现,除了豆科植物覆盖种植外,生产者组织的成员资格与不同 SAP 的采用始终保持正相关。尽管两者之间的关系不同,但我们发现,推广渠道和生产者组织成员资格与采用 SAPs 的强度显著相关。综上所述,我们的研究结果表明,在推广 SAPs 的过程中,参与者应采取综合方法。
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引用次数: 0
Transition to sustainable environment and economic growth in Tunisia: An ARDL approach 突尼斯向可持续环境和经济增长的过渡:ARDL 方法
Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wds.2024.100165
Emna Trabelsi

This study investigates the relationship between environmental sustainability and economic growth in Tunisia by employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Granger Causality on annual data from 1990 to 2022. It aims to understand how environmental sustainability influences Tunisia's economic growth, revealing a substantial positive long-term association. The research is crucial in the global discourse on sustainability, providing insights for informed policy-making and sustainable development, particularly in developing nations like Tunisia. By utilizing the PCA, the ARDL approach, and Granger causality, the analysis gains robustness, offering a comprehensive understanding of the complex relationship. The originality lies in its Tunisia-specific focus, contributing perspectives to the broader conversation on environmental sustainability and economic growth. Notably, we identify a positive long-term impact of environmental sustainability on Tunisia's economic growth, with implications for policymakers, economists, and environmental advocates. The robustness of the results to different proxies reinforces the credibility and applicability of the findings, advancing both academic understanding and providing actionable insights for policymakers aiming to balance economic prosperity and environmental sustainability in Tunisia and similar developing economies. A green economy model mut be embraced in Tunisia, that meets economic and environmental goals, particularly decarbonization through energy security, creating quality jobs through trade openness and FDI, promoting entrepreneurship and technology start-ups.

本研究采用自回归分布滞后法(ARDL)、主成分分析法(PCA)和格兰杰因果关系法对突尼斯 1990 年至 2022 年的年度数据进行研究,探讨环境可持续性与经济增长之间的关系。研究旨在了解环境可持续性如何影响突尼斯的经济增长,并揭示出一种实质性的长期正相关关系。这项研究在全球可持续发展讨论中至关重要,为知情决策和可持续发展提供了深刻见解,尤其是在突尼斯这样的发展中国家。通过利用 PCA、ARDL 方法和格兰杰因果关系,分析获得了稳健性,对复杂的关系提供了全面的理解。这项研究的独创性在于它关注突尼斯的具体情况,为有关环境可持续性和经济增长的更广泛对话提供了视角。值得注意的是,我们发现了环境可持续性对突尼斯经济增长的长期积极影响,这对政策制定者、经济学家和环保倡导者都有借鉴意义。不同代用指标对结果的稳健性增强了研究结果的可信度和适用性,既促进了学术理解,也为旨在平衡突尼斯及类似发展中经济体的经济繁荣和环境可持续性的政策制定者提供了可行的见解。突尼斯应采用绿色经济模式,以实现经济和环境目标,特别是通过能源安全实现脱碳,通过贸易开放和外国直接投资创造高质量的就业机会,促进创业和技术初创。
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引用次数: 0
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World Development Sustainability
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