With the European debt crisis, the role of assets accepted by the Eurosystem as collateral for refinancing operations took on a new place in the public debate, as, against a backdrop of shifting demand for refinancing, movements in European bond prices led to significant fluctuations in the collateral constraints of credit institutions. This paper documents the change in and heterogeneity of these constraints. We assess the impact attributable to the downgrade of sovereign ratings and the decline in asset prices during the European debt crisis on the valuation of collateral available for refinancing. We also construct indicators that track the change in the quality and liquidity of posted collateral. Our findings suggest that the flexibility of the Eurosystem collateral framework enabled credit institutions to cushion the shock created by the European debt crisis by depositing assets that were less liquid than bonds without causing a relative deterioration in the average rating of assets posted as collateral compared with the average rating on the market, as measured by eligible marketable assets.
{"title":"Monetary Policy and Collateral Constraints Since the European Debt Crisis","authors":"J. Barthélemy, V. Bignon, Benoît Nguyen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3144349","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3144349","url":null,"abstract":"With the European debt crisis, the role of assets accepted by the Eurosystem as collateral for refinancing operations took on a new place in the public debate, as, against a backdrop of shifting demand for refinancing, movements in European bond prices led to significant fluctuations in the collateral constraints of credit institutions. This paper documents the change in and heterogeneity of these constraints. We assess the impact attributable to the downgrade of sovereign ratings and the decline in asset prices during the European debt crisis on the valuation of collateral available for refinancing. We also construct indicators that track the change in the quality and liquidity of posted collateral. Our findings suggest that the flexibility of the Eurosystem collateral framework enabled credit institutions to cushion the shock created by the European debt crisis by depositing assets that were less liquid than bonds without causing a relative deterioration in the average rating of assets posted as collateral compared with the average rating on the market, as measured by eligible marketable assets.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115389557","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
W. Arrata, Benoît Nguyen, Imène Rahmouni-Rousseau, Miklos Vari
Some Euro area money market rates have been standing below the deposit facility rate since 2015, which coincided with the start of the Eurosystem’s public sector purchase program (PSPP). In this paper, we explore empirically the interactions between the PSPP and short term secured money market rates (repo rates). We document different channels through which asset purchases may affect the various segments of the Euro area repo market. Using proprietary data from the PSPP purchases and transactions made on the repo market for specific securities (“special”), our results show that the PSPP has contributed to push down repo rate, in particular prior to January 2017. On average, purchasing 1% of a bond outstanding is associated with a decline in its repo rate of -0.78 bps.
{"title":"Eurosystem's Asset Purchases and Money Market Rates","authors":"W. Arrata, Benoît Nguyen, Imène Rahmouni-Rousseau, Miklos Vari","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3082767","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3082767","url":null,"abstract":"Some Euro area money market rates have been standing below the deposit facility rate since 2015, which coincided with the start of the Eurosystem’s public sector purchase program (PSPP). In this paper, we explore empirically the interactions between the PSPP and short term secured money market rates (repo rates). We document different channels through which asset purchases may affect the various segments of the Euro area repo market. Using proprietary data from the PSPP purchases and transactions made on the repo market for specific securities (“special”), our results show that the PSPP has contributed to push down repo rate, in particular prior to January 2017. On average, purchasing 1% of a bond outstanding is associated with a decline in its repo rate of -0.78 bps.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"94 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127909566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article shows that when agents learn from prices, large private uncertainty may result from a small amount of heterogeneity. As in a Phelps–Lucas island model, final producers look at the prices of their local inputs to infer aggregate conditions. However, market linkages between islands make the informativeness of local prices endogenous to general equilibrium relations. In this context, I show that a vanishingly small heterogeneity in local conditions is enough to generate an equilibrium in which prices are rigid to aggregate shocks and transmit only partial information. I use this insight as a microfoundation for price rigidity in an otherwise frictionless monetary model and show that even a tiny amount of dispersion in fundamentals can lead to large non-neutrality of money.
{"title":"Price Dispersion, Private Uncertainty, And Endogenous Nominal Rigidities","authors":"Gaetano Gaballo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3095498","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3095498","url":null,"abstract":"This article shows that when agents learn from prices, large private uncertainty may result from a small amount of heterogeneity. As in a Phelps–Lucas island model, final producers look at the prices of their local inputs to infer aggregate conditions. However, market linkages between islands make the informativeness of local prices endogenous to general equilibrium relations. In this context, I show that a vanishingly small heterogeneity in local conditions is enough to generate an equilibrium in which prices are rigid to aggregate shocks and transmit only partial information. I use this insight as a microfoundation for price rigidity in an otherwise frictionless monetary model and show that even a tiny amount of dispersion in fundamentals can lead to large non-neutrality of money.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"148 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128602037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper assesses resource misallocation dynamics and its impact on aggregate TFP in the French manufacturing sector between 1990 and 2015. I provide an exact decomposition of allocational inefficiency into three components: labor misallocation, capital misallocation, and a third term representing the interplay between both. Misallocation increased substantially between 1997 and 2007, generating a loss in annual TFP growth of roughly 0.8 percentage points. This increase is mainly related to labor misallocation, except at the beginning of the 2000s, when capital misallocation played the leading role. The impact of allocational efficiency during the Great Recession is sizeable: misallocation accounts for roughly 25% of the 2007-2009 decline in TFP and 20% of the improvement observed in the immediate aftermath of the crisis. The main feature behind the rise in misallocation during the crisis is the predominance of the interplay component, which is stable the rest of the time. It suggests that one should pay special attention to mechanisms disrupting both labor and capital markets in the wake of financial crises. Finally, allocational efficiency remains rather constant after 2010: the post-crisis slowdown in productivity growth is therefore even more pronounced for efficient TFP than for observed TFP.
{"title":"Misallocation Before, During and After the Great Recession","authors":"T. Libert","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3095507","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3095507","url":null,"abstract":"This paper assesses resource misallocation dynamics and its impact on aggregate TFP in the French manufacturing sector between 1990 and 2015. I provide an exact decomposition of allocational inefficiency into three components: labor misallocation, capital misallocation, and a third term representing the interplay between both. Misallocation increased substantially between 1997 and 2007, generating a loss in annual TFP growth of roughly 0.8 percentage points. This increase is mainly related to labor misallocation, except at the beginning of the 2000s, when capital misallocation played the leading role. The impact of allocational efficiency during the Great Recession is sizeable: misallocation accounts for roughly 25% of the 2007-2009 decline in TFP and 20% of the improvement observed in the immediate aftermath of the crisis. The main feature behind the rise in misallocation during the crisis is the predominance of the interplay component, which is stable the rest of the time. It suggests that one should pay special attention to mechanisms disrupting both labor and capital markets in the wake of financial crises. Finally, allocational efficiency remains rather constant after 2010: the post-crisis slowdown in productivity growth is therefore even more pronounced for efficient TFP than for observed TFP.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"48 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124845548","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies the divergence/convergence process of European countries as regard the financing behavior of small and medium sized enterprises. Using a firm level and country representative survey, we construct country-time indicators of SMEs’ use of three external financing sources: bank loans, credit line/overdraft and trade credit. These indicators account for composition effects and demand effects. We find substantial differences between countries in the SMEs’ use of the three financing sources. In particular, the cross-country differences related to SMEs’ use of bank loans have significantly increased over the period 2010-2014. This divergence is not related to a global increase in the volatility of this use between countries. Instead, it has been driven by a sharper increase (resp decrease) in the countries where SMEs’ use was initially higher (resp. lower). Finally, we investigate whether SMEs’ uses of financing sources are correlated at the country level with various macroeconomic and banking structure indicators. The results suggest that indicators about banking concentration are good candidates to explain the cross-country divergence of SMEs’ use of bank loans.
{"title":"SMEs’ Financing: Divergence Across Euro Area Countries?","authors":"S. Roux, Frédérique Savignac","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3095517","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3095517","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the divergence/convergence process of European countries as regard the financing behavior of small and medium sized enterprises. Using a firm level and country representative survey, we construct country-time indicators of SMEs’ use of three external financing sources: bank loans, credit line/overdraft and trade credit. These indicators account for composition effects and demand effects. We find substantial differences between countries in the SMEs’ use of the three financing sources. In particular, the cross-country differences related to SMEs’ use of bank loans have significantly increased over the period 2010-2014. This divergence is not related to a global increase in the volatility of this use between countries. Instead, it has been driven by a sharper increase (resp decrease) in the countries where SMEs’ use was initially higher (resp. lower). Finally, we investigate whether SMEs’ uses of financing sources are correlated at the country level with various macroeconomic and banking structure indicators. The results suggest that indicators about banking concentration are good candidates to explain the cross-country divergence of SMEs’ use of bank loans.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"127 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115234214","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies the optimal design of fiscal policy when financial markets are incomplete at the aggregate and microeconomic level. The government trades a non-state contingent bond (liability) and cannot insure against the uncertainty in future tax revenues, while households are unable to insure against their risk to human capital investments. Because of this risk, the macroeconomic equilibrium is inefficient since asset prices are affected by the extra volatility in private consumption. This element together with the insurance motive of the government to hedge against the uncertainty in tax revenues determine the allocation of assets and the optimal design of fiscal policies. The results show that the government should accumulate assets in order to smooth taxes on labour income, while it should subsidize physical capital in order to increase an inefficiently low level of wages through higher demand for labour. Assessing optimal policies against a negative economic shock, the key findings suggest that a temporary increase in risk-taking is optimal, though not so much through leverage but by a tax policy that incentivise the rebalancing of portfolios towards riskier (but more productive) real assets such as human capital.
{"title":"Optimal Fiscal Policy with Incomplete Financial Markets","authors":"Moustafa Chatzouz","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3390811","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3390811","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the optimal design of fiscal policy when financial markets are incomplete at the aggregate and microeconomic level. The government trades a non-state contingent bond (liability) and cannot insure against the uncertainty in future tax revenues, while households are unable to insure against their risk to human capital investments. Because of this risk, the macroeconomic equilibrium is inefficient since asset prices are affected by the extra volatility in private consumption. This element together with the insurance motive of the government to hedge against the uncertainty in tax revenues determine the allocation of assets and the optimal design of fiscal policies. The results show that the government should accumulate assets in order to smooth taxes on labour income, while it should subsidize physical capital in order to increase an inefficiently low level of wages through higher demand for labour. Assessing optimal policies against a negative economic shock, the key findings suggest that a temporary increase in risk-taking is optimal, though not so much through leverage but by a tax policy that incentivise the rebalancing of portfolios towards riskier (but more productive) real assets such as human capital. <br>","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"39 2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130735208","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Through a time-varying VAR model with drifting parameters and stochastic volatilities (Cogley and Sargent, 2005, Primiceri, 2005), we explore nonlinearities on the French housing and credit markets, which give rich insights on the persistent bubble of the 2000s. While the price increase took place during a period of low shock variance, shock persistence increased during this period, as well as the elasticity relative to demography and income. Low reactivity of the housing stock to housing prices may create construction bottlenecks and explain these nonlinearities. However, even though our framework is very flexible, part of the price increase remains unexplained.
{"title":"Insight from a Time-Varying VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility of the French Housing and Credit Markets","authors":"S. Avouyi-Dovi, C. Labonne, R. Lecat, Simon Ray","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2916614","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2916614","url":null,"abstract":"Through a time-varying VAR model with drifting parameters and stochastic volatilities (Cogley and Sargent, 2005, Primiceri, 2005), we explore nonlinearities on the French housing and credit markets, which give rich insights on the persistent bubble of the 2000s. While the price increase took place during a period of low shock variance, shock persistence increased during this period, as well as the elasticity relative to demography and income. Low reactivity of the housing stock to housing prices may create construction bottlenecks and explain these nonlinearities. However, even though our framework is very flexible, part of the price increase remains unexplained.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"217 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116061952","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The sensitivity of inflation to domestic slack has declined in developed countries since the mid-1980s. This article shows why this might result from globalization favoring concentration. To do so, I add three ingredients to an otherwise standard general equilibrium two-country new-Keynesian model. (1) Strategic interactions generate a time-varying desired markup; (2) endogenous entry and (3) heterogeneous productivity engender a self-selection of the most productive firms (which are also the largest ones) in international trade. Hence, the weight of large firms in domestic production increases in response to a fall in international trade costs. These large firms transmit less marginal cost fluctuations to price adjustments, rather absorbing them into their desired markup to protect their market share. At the aggregate level, this leads to domestic inflation reacting less to real activity fluctuations.
{"title":"Globalization, Market Structure and Inflation Dynamics","authors":"Sophie Guilloux-Nefussi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2887378","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2887378","url":null,"abstract":"The sensitivity of inflation to domestic slack has declined in developed countries since the mid-1980s. This article shows why this might result from globalization favoring concentration. To do so, I add three ingredients to an otherwise standard general equilibrium two-country new-Keynesian model. (1) Strategic interactions generate a time-varying desired markup; (2) endogenous entry and (3) heterogeneous productivity engender a self-selection of the most productive firms (which are also the largest ones) in international trade. Hence, the weight of large firms in domestic production increases in response to a fall in international trade costs. These large firms transmit less marginal cost fluctuations to price adjustments, rather absorbing them into their desired markup to protect their market share. At the aggregate level, this leads to domestic inflation reacting less to real activity fluctuations.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130024528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the aftermath of the crisis, sovereign risk premium differentials have been increasingly widening. Although the perceived risk for core countries remains relatively low, financial markets seem to discriminate among peripheral economies requiring higher risk premia than what is justified by fiscal factors only. Our hypothesis in this study is that in peripheral countries this is not simply the result of fiscal indiscipline but the combination of both internal and external imbalances. We use a yearly post-1980 OECD-country panel data to estimate the joint dynamics of sovereign bond yields and their long-run determinants. We find that a net foreign position that is considered highly deteriorated can be a differentiating factor for investors. Indeed, the existence of a “twin deficit” put substantial upward pressures on sovereign bond yields in many advanced economies over the medium term.
{"title":"Which Combination of Fiscal and External Imbalances to Determine the Long-Run Dynamics of Sovereign Bond Yields?","authors":"Mélika Ben Salem, Barbara Castelletti-Font","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2866447","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2866447","url":null,"abstract":"In the aftermath of the crisis, sovereign risk premium differentials have been increasingly widening. Although the perceived risk for core countries remains relatively low, financial markets seem to discriminate among peripheral economies requiring higher risk premia than what is justified by fiscal factors only. Our hypothesis in this study is that in peripheral countries this is not simply the result of fiscal indiscipline but the combination of both internal and external imbalances. We use a yearly post-1980 OECD-country panel data to estimate the joint dynamics of sovereign bond yields and their long-run determinants. We find that a net foreign position that is considered highly deteriorated can be a differentiating factor for investors. Indeed, the existence of a “twin deficit” put substantial upward pressures on sovereign bond yields in many advanced economies over the medium term.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116491824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We analyze French GDP revisions and we investigate the rationality of preliminary announcements of GDP. We consider nonlinearities, taking the form of business cycle asymmetry and time changes, and their effect on both unconditional moments of revisions and the rationality of announcements. We find that nonlinearity represents an interesting feature of French GDP announcements and revisions. Our results suggest that revisions are unbiased, but announcements are overall inefficient, conditionally on a set of macro-financial indicators. Finally, we investigate the forecastability of GDP revisions in real-time and we find out that total revisions are predictable.
{"title":"Rationality of Announcements, Business Cycle Asymmetry, and Predictability of Revisions. The Case of French GDP","authors":"M. Mogliani, Thomas Ferrière","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2834857","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2834857","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze French GDP revisions and we investigate the rationality of preliminary announcements of GDP. We consider nonlinearities, taking the form of business cycle asymmetry and time changes, and their effect on both unconditional moments of revisions and the rationality of announcements. We find that nonlinearity represents an interesting feature of French GDP announcements and revisions. Our results suggest that revisions are unbiased, but announcements are overall inefficient, conditionally on a set of macro-financial indicators. Finally, we investigate the forecastability of GDP revisions in real-time and we find out that total revisions are predictable.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133782864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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