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Accounting for Labor Gaps 劳动力差距核算
Pub Date : 2016-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2740960
F. Langot, Alessandra Pizzo
In this paper we develop a balanced growth model with labor supply and search and matching frictions in the labor market, to study the impact of economic policy variables on the two margins which constitute the (total) labor input: the extensive margin (the rate of employment) and the intensive margin (the hours worked per worker). We show that the dynamics of taxes primarily have an impact on hours worked, while labor market institutions have a significant influence on the rate of employment. However, our findings emphasize that there is an interaction between the two margins. The model is tested on four countries (US, France, Germany and the UK), which have experienced different tax and labor market dynamics since the sixties. Using this structural approach, we can then perform counterfactual experiments about the evolution of the policy variables, and compare the implications of policy changes in terms of production as well as average welfare.
在本文中,我们建立了一个平衡增长模型,考虑劳动力市场中的劳动力供给和搜索以及匹配摩擦,以研究经济政策变量对构成(总)劳动力投入的两个边际的影响:外延边际(就业率)和密集边际(每个工人的工作时间)。我们表明,税收的动态主要对工作时间产生影响,而劳动力市场制度对就业率有重大影响。然而,我们的研究结果强调两个边缘之间存在相互作用。该模型在四个国家(美国、法国、德国和英国)进行了测试,这些国家自上世纪60年代以来经历了不同的税收和劳动力市场动态。使用这种结构方法,我们可以对政策变量的演变进行反事实实验,并比较政策变化对生产和平均福利的影响。
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引用次数: 7
The Behaviour of French Firms During the Crisis: Evidence from the Wage Dynamics Network Survey 危机期间法国企业的行为:来自工资动态网络调查的证据
Pub Date : 2015-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2677646
Christophe Jadeau, É. Jousselin, S. Roux, G. Verdugo
In coordination with the ECB and 24 other national central banks of the European Union, the Banque de France interrogated 1150 French firms to understand how the crisis affected their economic environment and their human resources practices during the 2010-2013 period. A majority of workers were employed by firms which indicate that their activity was mostly affected by a decrease in demand considered as long-lasting by more than 40% of them, especially in the construction sector and among small firms. In contrast, less than 20% of firms (weighted by their employment) report that the unavailability of credit had an effect on their activity. Over the period, despite the economic downturn, the amount of total costs increased for 70% of firms (weighted by their employment) mainly through an increase in labour costs and secondly in the cost of supplies. In particular, base wages continued to increase for a large share of firms, suggesting strong downward wage rigidities. Many firms indicate substantial difficulties in adjusting the labour force: throughout the crisis it became more difficult to hire qualified employees, to adjust working hours or to move workers to different job positions. The joint presence of difficulties in finding employees and unemployment growth suggest that structural unemployment increased in France in recent years. Other factors considered as significantly constraining for employment growth by a large majority of firms are uncertainty about economic conditions, risks that labour laws are changed, high payroll taxes and firing costs.
在欧洲央行和欧盟其他24个国家央行的协调下,法兰西银行询问了1150家法国公司,以了解2010-2013年期间危机如何影响其经济环境和人力资源实践。大多数工人受雇于的公司表明,他们的活动主要受到超过40%的公司认为长期需求减少的影响,特别是在建筑部门和小型公司中。相比之下,只有不到20%的公司(按他们的就业情况加权)报告说,信贷的不可获得对他们的活动产生了影响。在此期间,尽管经济低迷,70%的公司的总成本增加了(按雇佣加权),主要是由于劳动力成本的增加,其次是供应成本的增加。特别是,大部分企业的基本工资继续增长,这表明工资下降的刚性很强。许多公司表示在调整劳动力方面存在重大困难:在整个危机期间,雇用合格员工、调整工作时间或将工人调到不同的工作岗位变得更加困难。就业困难和失业率增长的共同存在表明,近年来法国的结构性失业有所增加。大多数公司认为,其他显著限制就业增长的因素包括经济状况的不确定性、劳动法变更的风险、高工资税和解雇成本。
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引用次数: 19
Foreign Direct Investment, Military Expenditure and Foreign Aid in Sub-Saharan Africa (Panel Data Analysis) 撒哈拉以南非洲的外国直接投资、军事开支和外援(面板数据分析)
Pub Date : 2015-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3689786
M. A. Workneh
In this study, we tried to see the impact of military expenditure and foreign aid on foreign direct investment in Sub-Saharan Africa using a panel data analysis. Based on the results obtained from the fixed effect estimation model, Net Official Development Assistance (ODA) can increase the inflow of foreign direct investment in Sub-Saharan African countries. Military expenditure can also increase the inflow of FDI. The result from the estimation is aligned with the argument of some researchers (like Anyanwu (2012) and Jakobsen (2010)) that foreign aid and military expenditure can increase the inflow of foreign direct investment to developing countries, including Sub-Saharan African countries.
在这项研究中,我们试图使用面板数据分析来观察军事开支和外国援助对撒哈拉以南非洲外国直接投资的影响。根据固定效应估计模型的结果,净官方发展援助(ODA)可以增加撒哈拉以南非洲国家的外国直接投资流入。军费开支也可以增加外国直接投资的流入。估算的结果与一些研究者(如Anyanwu(2012)和Jakobsen(2010))的观点一致,即外援和军事开支可以增加外国直接投资流入发展中国家,包括撒哈拉以南非洲国家。
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引用次数: 0
Euro Area Structural Convergence? A Multi-Criterion Cluster Analysis 欧元区结构趋同?多准则聚类分析
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2374369
Delphine M. Irac, Jimmy Lopez
This paper proposes a classification of the old member countries of the euro area in a structural data rich environment and run a convergence analysis using the same framework. First, we use a clustering approach and identify two structurally distinct groups of countries that are not modified between 1995 and 2007: the South Countries Group (SCG) – composed of Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain – and the Other Countries Group (OCG). Second, we propose a convergence metrics and reach three key findings: (i) increase over time of the between-group dispersion; (ii) diverging demographics and innovation performance into the OCG, and (iii) an unfortunate convergence towards high labour market duality in the SCG.
本文提出在结构数据丰富的环境下对欧元区旧成员国进行分类,并使用相同的框架进行收敛分析。首先,我们使用聚类方法并确定了1995年至2007年间未发生变化的两个结构不同的国家组:南方国家组(SCG)——由希腊、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙组成——和其他国家组(OCG)。其次,我们提出了一个收敛度量,并得出了三个关键发现:(i)随着时间的推移,组间离散度增加;(ii) OCG的人口统计和创新表现存在差异,以及(iii) SCG中劳动力市场的高二元性令人遗憾地趋同。
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引用次数: 26
Currency Union with and Without Banking Union 有和没有银行联盟的货币联盟
Pub Date : 2013-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2335960
V. Bignon, Régis Breton, Mariana Rojas Breu
This paper analyzes a two-country model of currency, banks and endogenous default to study whether impediments to credit market integration across jurisdictions impact the desirability of a currency union. We show that when those impediments induce a higher cost for banks to manage cross-border credit compared to domestic credit, welfare may not be maximal under a regime of currency union. But a banking union that would suppress hurdles to banking integration restores the optimality of that currency arrangement. The empirical and policy implications in terms of banking union are discussed.
本文分析了货币、银行和内生违约的两国模型,以研究跨司法管辖区信贷市场一体化的障碍是否会影响货币联盟的可取性。我们表明,当这些障碍导致银行管理跨境信贷的成本高于国内信贷时,在货币联盟制度下,福利可能不是最大的。但是,一个能够抑制银行业一体化障碍的银行业联盟,将恢复这种货币安排的最优状态。讨论了银行业联盟的实证意义和政策意义。
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引用次数: 15
Commodity Price Volatility and Tax Revenue: Evidence from Developing Countries 商品价格波动与税收:来自发展中国家的证据
Pub Date : 2013-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2225300
H. Ehrhart, S. Guérineau
The recent boom and bust in commodity prices has renewed the policymakers' interest in three complementary issues: i) characteristics and determinants of commodity price instability, ii) its macroeconomic effects and, iii) the optimal policy responses to this instability. This work falls within the scope of studies dedicated to the macroeconomic effects of commodity price instability, but focuses on the impact on public finance, while existing works were concentrated on growth. This paper also differs from the few previous studies on two aspects. First, we test the impact of commodity price volatility rather than focusing only on price levels. Second, we use disaggregated data on tax revenues (income tax, consumption tax and international trade tax) and on commodity prices (agricultural products, minerals and energy) in order to identify transmission channels between world prices and public finance variables. Our empirical analysis is carried out on 90 developing countries over 1980-2008. We compute an index which measures the volatility of the international price of 41 commodities in the sectors of agriculture, minerals and energy. We find robust evidence that tax revenues in developing countries increase with the rise of commodity prices but that they are hurt by the volatility of these prices. More specifically, price short-run volatility of imported commodities hurts tax revenues through trade and consumption taxes, while price medium-run volatility of export hurts tax revenues through both indirect and direct taxes. These findings point at the detrimental effect of commodity price volatility on developing countries public finances and highlight further the importance of finding ways to limit this price volatility and to implement policy measures to mitigate its adverse effects.
近期大宗商品价格的涨跌重新激发了政策制定者对三个互补问题的兴趣:1)大宗商品价格不稳定的特征和决定因素;2)大宗商品价格不稳定的宏观经济影响;3)对这种不稳定的最佳政策反应。这项工作属于专门研究商品价格不稳定的宏观经济影响的研究范围,但侧重于对公共财政的影响,而现有的工作则侧重于增长。本文还在两个方面与以往的少数研究有所不同。首先,我们测试了商品价格波动的影响,而不是只关注价格水平。其次,我们使用税收收入(所得税、消费税和国际贸易税)和商品价格(农产品、矿产和能源)的分类数据,以确定世界价格与公共财政变量之间的传导渠道。我们的实证分析是在90个发展中国家1980-2008年间进行的。我们计算了一个指数,该指数衡量了农业、矿产和能源领域41种大宗商品的国际价格波动。我们发现强有力的证据表明,发展中国家的税收收入随着大宗商品价格的上涨而增加,但它们受到这些价格波动的损害。更具体地说,进口商品的价格短期波动通过贸易和消费税损害税收,而出口商品的价格中期波动通过间接税和直接税损害税收。这些调查结果指出了商品价格波动对发展中国家公共财政的不利影响,并进一步强调了寻找限制这种价格波动的方法和实施减轻其不利影响的政策措施的重要性。
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引用次数: 19
Optimal Monetary and Prudential Policies 最优货币和审慎政策
Pub Date : 2012-12-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2192467
F. Collard, Harris Dellas, B. Diba, Olivier Loisel
The recent financial crisis has highlighted the interconnectedness between macroeconomic and financial stability and has raised the question of whether and how to combine the corresponding main policy instruments (interest rate and bank-capital requirements). This paper offers a characterization of the jointly optimal setting of monetary and prudential policies and discusses its implications for the business cycle. The source of financial fragility is the socially excessive risk-taking by banks due to limited liability and deposit insurance. We characterize the conditions under which locally optimal (Ramsey) policy dedicates the prudential instrument to preventing inefficient risk-taking by banks; and the monetary instrument to dealing with the business cycle, with the two instruments co-varying negatively. Our analysis thus identifies circumstances that can validate the prevailing view among central bankers that standard interest-rate policy cannot serve as the first line of defense against financial instability. In addition, we also provide conditions under which the two instruments might optimally co-move positively and countercyclically.
最近的金融危机突出了宏观经济与金融稳定之间的相互联系,并提出了是否以及如何结合相应的主要政策工具(利率和银行资本要求)的问题。本文给出了货币政策和审慎政策共同最优设置的特征,并讨论了其对经济周期的影响。金融脆弱性的根源是由于有限责任和存款保险导致的银行社会过度冒险。我们描述了局部最优(拉姆齐)政策将审慎工具用于防止银行低效冒险的条件;货币工具来应对经济周期,这两种工具负共变。因此,我们的分析确定了可以验证央行官员普遍观点的情况,即标准利率政策不能作为抵御金融不稳定的第一道防线。此外,我们还提供了条件下,这两种工具可能最优地共同积极和反周期移动。
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引用次数: 160
Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors 库存投资动态与复苏:制造业与零售业的比较
Pub Date : 2012-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2161796
F. Bec, Marie Bessec
This paper explores the existence of a bounce-back effect in inventory investment using the European Commission opinion survey on stocks of finished products in manufacturing and retail trade sectors. The data are quarterly balance for France, Germany and a European aggregate, from 1985q1 to 2011q4. Our empirical findings support the existence of a high recovery episode for inventory investment, during the quarters immediately following the recessions. This could in turn explain the real GDP growth rate bounce-back pointed out in previous empirical studies. Moreover, according to our estimates, the inventory investment bounce-back occurs later and lasts longer in manufacturing than in retail trade sector.
本文利用欧盟委员会对制造业和零售业制成品库存的意见调查,探讨了库存投资中存在的反弹效应。这些数据是1985年第一季度至2011年第四季度法国、德国和欧洲整体的季度余额。我们的实证研究结果支持,在经济衰退之后的几个季度里,库存投资出现了一个高复苏阶段。这反过来又可以解释以往实证研究中指出的实际GDP增长率反弹。此外,根据我们的估计,库存投资反弹发生在制造业比零售贸易部门更晚,持续时间更长。
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引用次数: 17
Review of the Arabic Magharib Economic Bloc 审查阿拉伯马格里布经济集团
Pub Date : 2012-04-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2043095
Issam A.W. Mohamed
The study presents review of the Magharib countries economic bloc which consists of Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia and Mauritania. The feasibility of that economic bloc concludes its potentials. There comparative advantages for each county to integrate with the others in production factors and products, surplus labor in Mauritania and shortages in Libya, surplus agricultural production in Morocco and Tunisia, Morocco and shortages in Mauritania and Libya, energy surplus in Libya and shortages in Mauritania, Tunisia and surplus in Libya. However, the review of the institutional structure of its dynamics reveals that it is politically controlled and it is more or less motivated by individual country impulses. De facto application of trade enhancements and motivation do not exist. Economic boundaries, e.g., trade taxation and tariffs reduce possible exchange without economic sense. I hereby conclude that the main hindrance of potentiating trade and transference, e.g., cross border, tariffs and production factors. Different political regimes seem to be the primary hindrance which reduces chances of economic development. I propose here that such condition cannot support the modus operandi of that economic bloc and that joining the French African Economic Bloc will do better in integrating economies of those West African countries.
该研究报告审查了由阿尔及利亚、利比亚、摩洛哥、突尼斯和毛里塔尼亚组成的马格里布国家经济集团。那个经济集团的可行性表明了它的潜力。各国在生产要素和产品整合方面具有比较优势,毛里塔尼亚劳动力过剩,利比亚短缺;摩洛哥和突尼斯农业生产过剩,摩洛哥短缺,毛里塔尼亚和利比亚短缺;利比亚能源过剩,毛里塔尼亚和突尼斯短缺,利比亚过剩。然而,对其动态的体制结构的审查表明,它受到政治控制,或多或少受到个别国家冲动的推动。贸易增强和动机的实际应用并不存在。经济边界,例如贸易税收和关税,减少了没有经济意义的可能交换。我在此得出结论,加强贸易和转移的主要障碍,例如跨国界,关税和生产因素。不同的政治制度似乎是减少经济发展机会的主要障碍。我在此建议,这种条件不能支持该经济集团的运作方式,加入法属非洲经济集团将更好地使这些西非国家的经济一体化。
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引用次数: 0
Are Forecast Combinations Efficient? 预测组合是否有效?
Pub Date : 2012-04-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2039670
Pablo M. Pincheira
It is well known that weighted averages of two competing forecasts may reduce Mean Squared Prediction Errors (MSPE) and may also introduce certain inefficiencies. In this paper we take an in-depth view of one particular type of inefficiency stemming from simple combination schemes. We identify testable conditions under which every linear convex combination of two forecasts displays this type of inefficiency. In particular, we show that the process of taking averages of forecasts may induce inefficiencies in the combination, even when the individual forecasts are efficient. Furthermore, we show that the so-called "optimal weighted average" traditionally presented in the literature may indeed be suboptimal. We propose a simple testable condition to detect if this traditional weighted factor is optimal in a broader sense. An optimal "recombination weight" is introduced. Finally, we illustrate our findings with simulations and an empirical application in the context of the combination of inflation forecasts.
众所周知,两个相互竞争的预测的加权平均可以减少均方预测误差(MSPE),但也可能导致某些效率低下。在本文中,我们深入探讨了一种特殊类型的低效源于简单的组合方案。我们确定了可测试的条件,在这些条件下,两个预测的每个线性凸组合都显示出这种低效率。特别是,我们表明,即使个别预测是有效的,取预测平均值的过程也可能导致组合中的低效率。此外,我们表明,传统文献中提出的所谓“最优加权平均”可能确实是次优的。我们提出一个简单的可测试条件来检测这个传统的加权因子是否在更广泛的意义上是最优的。引入了最优“重组权值”。最后,我们通过模拟和结合通货膨胀预测的实证应用来说明我们的发现。
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引用次数: 8
期刊
Banque de France Research Paper Series
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