Pub Date : 2004-03-01DOI: 10.1111/J.0277-0180.2004.00080.X
Opec Secretariat
Notwithstanding forecasting difficulties, the oil supply and demand balance has proved to be a good indicator of the state of the market and stock levels, which, in turn, influence price behaviour. In periods where OECD commercial stock levels lie within a certain range, currently around 2,450-2,650 million barrels, the range of prices is larger than when stock levels are very high or very low. In both the latter extreme situations, prices are prone to rapid movements, undermining market stability. Other factors, of course, also influence price fluctuations. The general opinion among regularly published oil market reports points to the inevitability of a higher-than-normal build in stocks in the second quarter of 2004. If the resulting surplus is not handled in a timely and effective manner, there is likely to be excessive downward pressure on prices, which, if left unattended, would lead to a protracted spell of volatility.
{"title":"Oil Prices and Stocks in the Second Quarter of 2004","authors":"Opec Secretariat","doi":"10.1111/J.0277-0180.2004.00080.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.0277-0180.2004.00080.X","url":null,"abstract":"Notwithstanding forecasting difficulties, the oil supply and demand balance has proved to be a good indicator of the state of the market and stock levels, which, in turn, influence price behaviour. In periods where OECD commercial stock levels lie within a certain range, currently around 2,450-2,650 million barrels, the range of prices is larger than when stock levels are very high or very low. In both the latter extreme situations, prices are prone to rapid movements, undermining market stability. Other factors, of course, also influence price fluctuations. The general opinion among regularly published oil market reports points to the inevitability of a higher-than-normal build in stocks in the second quarter of 2004. If the resulting surplus is not handled in a timely and effective manner, there is likely to be excessive downward pressure on prices, which, if left unattended, would lead to a protracted spell of volatility.","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"107 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115797504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2004-03-01DOI: 10.1111/J.0277-0180.2004.00077.X
Salman Saif Ghouri
This paper analyses natural gas demand in the United States of America, Canada and Mexico for the period 1980-2001. Visual inspections of the historical trends for natural gas demand, GDP and natural gas prices provide an initial assessment of the relationship between these variables. Copyright 2004 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
{"title":"North American Natural Gas Demand - Outlook 2020","authors":"Salman Saif Ghouri","doi":"10.1111/J.0277-0180.2004.00077.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.0277-0180.2004.00077.X","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses natural gas demand in the United States of America, Canada and Mexico for the period 1980-2001. Visual inspections of the historical trends for natural gas demand, GDP and natural gas prices provide an initial assessment of the relationship between these variables. Copyright 2004 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"12 3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122979053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2003-12-01DOI: 10.1111/J.0277-0180.2003.00075.X
A. Michaelowa
Current climate policy does not take into account that, after greenhouse gas emissions have been reduced to an extent that atmospheric concentrations stabilise and then start to fall, natural decay of greenhouse gases will lead to a global cooling phase spanning several centuries. This cooling will lead to damage to humans and ecosystems that depends on the rate of temperature change. Current climate policy should thus concentrate on the reduction of short- and medium-lived greenhouse gases, while exempting long-lived gases. This reduces the cooling rate. Another policy option is to sequester carbon in geological reservoirs that allow controlled release in the future.
{"title":"Limiting Global Cooling after Global Warming is Over - Differentiating between Short- and Long-Lived Greenhouse Gases","authors":"A. Michaelowa","doi":"10.1111/J.0277-0180.2003.00075.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.0277-0180.2003.00075.X","url":null,"abstract":"Current climate policy does not take into account that, after greenhouse gas emissions have been reduced to an extent that atmospheric concentrations stabilise and then start to fall, natural decay of greenhouse gases will lead to a global cooling phase spanning several centuries. This cooling will lead to damage to humans and ecosystems that depends on the rate of temperature change. Current climate policy should thus concentrate on the reduction of short- and medium-lived greenhouse gases, while exempting long-lived gases. This reduces the cooling rate. Another policy option is to sequester carbon in geological reservoirs that allow controlled release in the future.","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"606 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123254822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2003-12-01DOI: 10.1111/J.0277-0180.2003.00073.X
Ahmed El Hachemi Mazighi
Recent developments in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry, particularly the ongoing projects of liquefaction and regasification and the increasing number of LNG-carriers to be delivered in forthcoming years, have led some specialists to argue that LNG is today at the crossroads between regionalisation and globalisation. Other specialists think that, by 2010, LNG's share of the total international trade of natural gas will be predominant, compared with that of pipelines. All these assumptions are based on an examination of the duration of existing and ongoing international gas projects. Copyright 2003 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries .
{"title":"An Examination of the International Natural Gas Trade","authors":"Ahmed El Hachemi Mazighi","doi":"10.1111/J.0277-0180.2003.00073.X","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/J.0277-0180.2003.00073.X","url":null,"abstract":"Recent developments in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry, particularly the ongoing projects of liquefaction and regasification and the increasing number of LNG-carriers to be delivered in forthcoming years, have led some specialists to argue that LNG is today at the crossroads between regionalisation and globalisation. Other specialists think that, by 2010, LNG's share of the total international trade of natural gas will be predominant, compared with that of pipelines. All these assumptions are based on an examination of the duration of existing and ongoing international gas projects. Copyright 2003 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries .","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125580852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper is an up-to-date, but only moderately technical survey of the natural gas market. Supply, demand and pricing are discussed, and, in the light of the electricity deregulation experiment in California, where the expression "dangerous failure" has been repeatedly used to describe the extensive losses suffered by final consumers and utilities (or retailers), a modicum of attention is paid to the prospects for deregulating natural gas. Some microeconomics of the natural gas market is presented at a more elementary level than in my energy economics textbook (2000) or my book "The Political Economy of Natural Gas" (1987), and I make a studied attempt to avoid bringing the misleading Hotelling model (of exhaustible resource depletion) into the exposition. Finally, some comments on risk management with futures contracts are provided, and there is a brief mathematical appendix on futures, options and two-part pricing. Copyright 2003 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
{"title":"An Introduction to the Economics of Natural Gas","authors":"F. Banks","doi":"10.1111/1468-0076.00123","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0076.00123","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is an up-to-date, but only moderately technical survey of the natural gas market. Supply, demand and pricing are discussed, and, in the light of the electricity deregulation experiment in California, where the expression \"dangerous failure\" has been repeatedly used to describe the extensive losses suffered by final consumers and utilities (or retailers), a modicum of attention is paid to the prospects for deregulating natural gas. Some microeconomics of the natural gas market is presented at a more elementary level than in my energy economics textbook (2000) or my book \"The Political Economy of Natural Gas\" (1987), and I make a studied attempt to avoid bringing the misleading Hotelling model (of exhaustible resource depletion) into the exposition. Finally, some comments on risk management with futures contracts are provided, and there is a brief mathematical appendix on futures, options and two-part pricing. Copyright 2003 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"94 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115435130","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In Nigeria, petroleum is defined to include natural gas. The country has a legal framework that clearly vests ownership of crude oil, mined under the old joint venture contracts, in the oil-producing company that produces the crude. However, the country has, over the years, enacted some laws seeking to vest the ownership of associated and discovered gas absolutely in the country itself, while retaining laws that, in effect, vest the ownership of the same gas in the producing company. The country's efforts to recover and keep ownership of associated and discovered gas have, therefore, been rather lame and ineffective. This article considers the legal framework and points the way forward for the removal of the confusion foisted by this uncertain legal situation.
{"title":"Ownership of Associated and Discovered Gas in Nigeria Under the Old Joint Venture Contracts","authors":"Andrew I. Chukwuemerie","doi":"10.1111/1468-0076.00122","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0076.00122","url":null,"abstract":"In Nigeria, petroleum is defined to include natural gas. The country has a legal framework that clearly vests ownership of crude oil, mined under the old joint venture contracts, in the oil-producing company that produces the crude. However, the country has, over the years, enacted some laws seeking to vest the ownership of associated and discovered gas absolutely in the country itself, while retaining laws that, in effect, vest the ownership of the same gas in the producing company. The country's efforts to recover and keep ownership of associated and discovered gas have, therefore, been rather lame and ineffective. This article considers the legal framework and points the way forward for the removal of the confusion foisted by this uncertain legal situation.","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"2007 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125579171","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper uses a multiple regression model derived from an adaptation of Nerlove's partial adjustment model to estimate both the short-run and long-run elasticities of demand for crude oil in 23 countries. The estimates so obtained confirm that the demand for crude oil internationally is highly insensitive to changes in price.
{"title":"Price Elasticity of Demand for Crude Oil: Estimates for 23 Countries","authors":"John C. B. Cooper","doi":"10.1111/1468-0076.00121","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0076.00121","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses a multiple regression model derived from an adaptation of Nerlove's partial adjustment model to estimate both the short-run and long-run elasticities of demand for crude oil in 23 countries. The estimates so obtained confirm that the demand for crude oil internationally is highly insensitive to changes in price.","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130575041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Iraq should not depend on its oil sector at the expense of the other economic sectors. This should not, however, be understood as a request to reduce oil production. Iraqi oil exports can play an important role in providing the capital necessary for the development of Iraq's industrial and agricultural sectors, in order to increase the contribution of these sectors to the real gross domestic product. The whole Iraqi economy, including the oil sector, must be organised in such a way that it becomes open, to some extent, to direct foreign investment. Iraq should target higher oil export revenue, and hence it will be able to pay its foreign debt within 25 years at the most. The higher oil export revenue can be obtained through a policy of moderate prices and faster growth of oil production.
{"title":"The Prospects for the Oil Sector in the Iraqi Economy after Sanctions","authors":"Imad Jabir","doi":"10.1111/1468-0076.00114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0076.00114","url":null,"abstract":"Iraq should not depend on its oil sector at the expense of the other economic sectors. This should not, however, be understood as a request to reduce oil production. Iraqi oil exports can play an important role in providing the capital necessary for the development of Iraq's industrial and agricultural sectors, in order to increase the contribution of these sectors to the real gross domestic product. The whole Iraqi economy, including the oil sector, must be organised in such a way that it becomes open, to some extent, to direct foreign investment. Iraq should target higher oil export revenue, and hence it will be able to pay its foreign debt within 25 years at the most. The higher oil export revenue can be obtained through a policy of moderate prices and faster growth of oil production.","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121592364","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A method is presented for fully risking projects, such as exploration ventures or the acquisition of undeveloped reserves. The expected value of an exploration project overstates the 'value', because it does not reflect the uncertainty in the project, as measured by its variance or standard deviation. If the expected value is calculable, then the risk-adjusted value (RAV) can also be calculated. The RAV depends additionally upon the size of the exploration budget, compared with the project, and also upon the 'price of risk'. That price is incorporated from the finance literature. The technique permits answering three related questions: 1) the risk-adjusted rate of return for a given project; 2) the risk-adjusted value of that project; or 3) the risk premium appropriate for a particular project, given the size of the firm's exploration budget.
{"title":"Risk Measurement for Oil and Gas Exploration: The Marriage of Geological and Financial Techniques","authors":"T. Stauffer","doi":"10.1111/1468-0076.00113","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0076.00113","url":null,"abstract":"A method is presented for fully risking projects, such as exploration ventures or the acquisition of undeveloped reserves. The expected value of an exploration project overstates the 'value', because it does not reflect the uncertainty in the project, as measured by its variance or standard deviation. If the expected value is calculable, then the risk-adjusted value (RAV) can also be calculated. The RAV depends additionally upon the size of the exploration budget, compared with the project, and also upon the 'price of risk'. That price is incorporated from the finance literature. The technique permits answering three related questions: 1) the risk-adjusted rate of return for a given project; 2) the risk-adjusted value of that project; or 3) the risk premium appropriate for a particular project, given the size of the firm's exploration budget.","PeriodicalId":103205,"journal":{"name":"Wiley-Blackwell: OPEC Energy Review","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129414170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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