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Forecasting Water Level Fluctuations of Urmieh Lake Using Gene Expression Programming and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System 基于基因表达规划和自适应神经模糊推理系统的乌尔米湖水位波动预测
Pub Date : 2012-06-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.3.2.109
S. Karimi, J. Shiri, O. Kisi, Oleg Makarynskyy
Forecasting lake level at various prediction intervals is an essential issue in such industrial applications as navigation, water resource planning and catchment management. In the present study, two data driven techniques, namely Gene Expression Programming and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System, were applied for predicting daily lake levels for three prediction intervals. Daily water-level data from Urmieh Lake in Northwestern Iran were used to train, test and validate the used techniques. Three statistical indexes, coefficient of determination, root mean square error and variance accounted for were used to assess the performance of the used techniques. Technique inter-comparisons demonstrated that the GEP surpassed the ANFIS model at each of the prediction intervals. A traditional auto regressive moving average model was also applied to the same data sets; the obtained results were compared with those of the data driven approaches demonstrating superiority of the data driven models to ARMA.
在各种预测区间内预测湖泊水位是导航、水资源规划和集水区管理等工业应用中的一个重要问题。本研究采用基因表达编程和自适应神经模糊推理系统两种数据驱动技术,在三个预测区间内预测湖泊日水位。来自伊朗西北部Urmieh湖的每日水位数据被用于训练、测试和验证所使用的技术。采用决定系数、均方根误差和方差3个统计指标来评价所采用技术的性能。技术间比较表明,GEP在各预测区间均优于ANFIS模型。对相同的数据集应用传统的自回归移动平均模型;将所得结果与数据驱动方法的结果进行了比较,证明了数据驱动模型相对于ARMA的优越性。
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引用次数: 29
Sea Level Anomalies in the Tropical Indian Ocean during Two Contrasting Southwest Monsoon Years 两个西南季风年期间热带印度洋海平面异常
Pub Date : 2012-06-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.3.2.127
S. Prakash, C. Mahesh, R. Gairola
The sea level anomalies (SLA) in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) during two consecutive contrasting southwest monsoon years of 2002 (deficit) and 2003 (normal) are examined using multi-satellite measurements. The rainfall anomalies over the TIO in the month of July show distinct patterns during these two years. The more consistent patterns analogous to rainfall anomalies are reflected in the freshwater flux anomalies which is one of the major contributors of the local sea level change. As a result, the SLA shows distinct features in the north Indian Ocean during these two years. The surface atmospheric convergence and divergence patterns in the TIO are also investigated using multi-satellite wind vectors which are supposed to be correlated with the southwest monsoon rainfall and a key component of sea level change. The results suggest that the eustatic effect and near surface convergence/divergence of winds have significant impact on SLA locally.
利用多卫星测量,对2002年(亏年)和2003年(正常年)两个连续对比的西南季风年热带印度洋(TIO)海平面异常(SLA)进行了研究。7月的降水异常在这两年中表现出明显的模式。与降水异常类似的更一致的模式反映在淡水通量异常上,而淡水通量异常是局部海平面变化的主要原因之一。因此,在这两年中,北印度洋的SLA表现出明显的特征。本文还利用多卫星风矢量研究了TIO中地表大气辐合和辐散模式,这些风矢量被认为与西南季风降雨和海平面变化的关键组成部分相关。结果表明,局地风的上升效应和近地面辐合/辐散对地表降水有显著影响。
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引用次数: 2
Experimental Study on Bed Load Transport of Shell Fragment-Mixed Sand under Waves 贝壳破碎-混合砂在波浪作用下的床载输运试验研究
Pub Date : 2012-06-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.3.2.85
Takahiro Kumagai, Sayaka Nakajima
Beneficial use of shell for constitutive materials of beach or tidal flat is proposed instead of its disposal. Since the shape of shell fragment is oblate, the knowledge on littoral drift of sand with spherical shape could not be applied directly for understanding of its behavior under waves. In this study, critical shields number and settling velocity of shell fragment are evaluated changing oblate shapes of the fragments, and the characteristics of bed load transport of shell and shell-mixed sand beds are examined by a movable-bed experiment. From the experiments, the effects of oblateness on the increase of resistance to wave and current are elucidated. It is found that the interaction of sand and shell on their movements has an effect on the bed-load rate changing the height of sand ripples.
建议利用贝壳作为海滩或潮滩的本构材料,而不是将其弃置。由于贝壳破片的形状是扁圆形的,球形沙粒的沿岸漂移知识不能直接用于理解其在波浪作用下的行为。本文通过动床试验,研究了贝壳破片在改变其扁平形状时的临界屏蔽数和沉降速度,并对贝壳和贝壳混合砂床的床载输运特性进行了研究。通过实验,阐明了扁率对波阻和电流阻增大的影响。研究发现,泥沙与贝壳运动的相互作用会影响床载率,从而改变沙波纹的高度。
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引用次数: 0
Nearshore Currents along the Karnataka Coast, West Coast of India 沿卡纳塔克邦海岸的近岸洋流,印度西海岸
Pub Date : 2012-03-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.3.1.71
V. S. Kumar, G. Dora, C. Philip, P. Pednekar, J. Singh
Measured current data at 7 locations and tide data at 3 locations during the pre-summer monsoon period along the west coast of India is used in the study. The surface currents during March showed a predominant northward trend and during April it was towards south. Estimated tidal currents were upto 25 cm s−1 with an average value of 8 cm s−1. Current tidal form number varied from 0.56 to 1 at different locations indicating currents are mixed. M2 and S2 tidal current constituents rotated clock wise at all location. Near surface, the alongshore current was 2.6 to 5.9% of the alongshore wind and near bottom it was 1.9 to 3.6% of the alongshore wind.
研究使用了印度西海岸夏前风期7个地点的实测海流资料和3个地点的潮汐资料。3月表层流以北流为主,4月表层流以南流为主。估计的潮流高达25 cm s - 1,平均值为8 cm s - 1。不同地点的潮流潮形数由0.56至1不等,显示水流混合。M2和S2潮流成分在所有位置沿时钟方向旋转。近岸流为近岸风的2.6 ~ 5.9%,近岸流为近岸风的1.9 ~ 3.6%。
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引用次数: 14
Power Generation Using Mechanical Wave Energy Converter 利用机械波能转换器发电
Pub Date : 2012-03-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.3.1.57
S. Chandrasekaran, Harender
Ocean wave energy plays a significant role in meeting the growing demand of electric power. Economic, environmental, and technical advantages of wave energy set it apart from other renewable energy resources. Present study describes a newly proposed Mechanical Wave Energy Converter (MEWC) that is employed to harness heave motion of floating buoy to generate power. Focus is on the conceptual development of the device, illustrating details of component level analysis. Employed methodology has many advantages such as i) simple and easy fabrication; ii) easy to control the operations during rough weather; and iii) low failure rate during normal sea conditions. Experimental investigations carried out on the scaled model of MWEC show better performance and its capability to generate power at higher efficiency in regular wave fields. Design Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) shows rare failure rates for all components except the floating buoy.
海浪能在满足日益增长的电力需求方面发挥着重要作用。波浪能的经济、环境和技术优势使它有别于其他可再生能源。本文介绍了一种新的机械波能转换器(MEWC),用于利用浮筒的升沉运动来发电。重点是器件的概念发展,说明组件级分析的细节。所采用的方法具有简单、易于制作等优点;Ii)在恶劣天气下易于控制作业;iii)正常海况下故障率低。对MWEC比例模型进行的实验研究表明,MWEC在规则波场中具有更好的性能和更高的发电效率。设计失效模式和影响分析(FMEA)表明,除浮筒外,所有部件的故障率都很低。
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引用次数: 15
Inverse Relationship of Marine Aerosol and Dust in Antarctic Ice with Fine-Grained Sediment in the South Atlantic Ocean: Implications for Sea-Ice Coverage and Wind Strength 南极冰中的海洋气溶胶和沙尘与南大西洋细颗粒沉积物的反比关系:对海冰覆盖和风力的影响
Pub Date : 2012-03-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.3.1.1
Sharon L. Kanfoush
This research seeks to test the hypothesis that natural gamma radiation (NGR) from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1094, which displays variability over the last glacial-interglacial cycle similar to dust in the Vostok ice core, reflects fine-grained terrigenous sediment delivered by eolian processes. Grain size was measured on 400 samples spanning 0–20 m in a composite core. Accumulation of the <63μ size fraction at Site 1094 and dust in Vostok exhibit a negative correlation, suggesting the fine sediments are not dominantly eolian. However the technique used for grain size measurements cannot distinguish between terrigenous and biogenous materials; therefore it is possible much fine-grained material is diatoms. An inverse correlation between fine sediments and NGR supports this interpretation, and implies terrigenous materials were at times diluted by microfossils from high biological productivity. Fine marine sediments correlate positively with temperature and negatively with marine aerosol Na+ in Vostok. One plausible explanation is extensive sea-ice of cold intervals steepened ocean-continent temperature gradients, intensified winds, and led to increased transport of dust and marine aerosol to Antarctica yet also reduced biological productivity at Site 1094. Such a reduction despite increases in NGR, potentially representing Fe-rich dust influx, would require light limitation or stratification associated with sea-ice.
本研究旨在验证来自海洋钻探计划站点1094的自然伽马辐射(NGR)的假设,该假设显示了与Vostok冰芯中尘埃相似的末次冰期-间冰期旋回的变变性,反映了风成过程带来的细粒陆源沉积物。在复合岩心中测量了400个样品的粒度,跨度为0-20 m。1094站点<63μ粒径组分的积累与Vostok粉尘呈负相关,表明细粒沉积物不以风成沉积物为主。然而,用于粒度测量的技术不能区分陆源和生物材料;因此,有可能许多细粒的物质是硅藻。细粒沉积物和NGR之间的负相关关系支持了这一解释,并表明陆源物质有时被来自高生物生产力的微化石稀释。在沃斯托克,海洋沉积物与温度呈正相关,与海洋气溶胶Na+负相关。一个似是而非的解释是,寒冷期大面积的海冰使海洋-大陆温度梯度变陡,风力增强,导致向南极洲输送的尘埃和海洋气溶胶增加,同时也降低了1094站点的生物生产力。尽管NGR增加,但这种减少可能代表富铁尘埃的涌入,将需要与海冰相关的光限制或分层。
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引用次数: 0
Climate Variability of the Northern Argentinean Shelf Circulation: Impact on Engraulis Anchoita 阿根廷北部陆架环流的气候变率:对凤尾鱼的影响
Pub Date : 2012-03-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.3.1.17
G. Auad, P. Martos
A high-resolution ocean model and hydrographic observations are used to characterize the shelf circulation of the northern Argentinean shelf during the study period (1993–2008) and ultimately to explore possible linkages among atmospheric, oceanic, and biological climatic variability. Abundance of larvae and eggs of the local anchovy species, Engraulis anchoita, exhibit a spatial and temporal variability similar to those stocks found in other parts of the world and that we interpret in the context of the particularities of the local circulation and hydrography. Two (statistically) coupled modes of wind stress-surface velocity are described and interpreted in terms of historical and new information. A complex picture emerges in which the intensity of both a thermal shelf front, the alongshore flow, and larvae abundance would be connected and forced by local wind stresses. For all areas examined on the shelf, the larvae/egg abundance would not be very sensitive to short-lived climatic fluctuations (e.g., year-to-year) but they would be indeed to regime shifts. The shallow shelf area bounded by the 39°S and 41°S parallels would expose a clearer linkage between physical and biological variables than that north of 39°S. We attribute this fact to the particular physical conditions found in the southernmost area, which would favor an increased habitat quality for Engraulis anchoita.
在研究期间(1993-2008年),利用高分辨率海洋模型和水文观测来描述阿根廷北部大陆架环流的特征,并最终探索大气、海洋和生物气候变率之间可能的联系。当地鳀鱼(Engraulis anchoita)的幼虫和卵的丰度表现出与世界其他地区相似的空间和时间变化性,我们在当地环流和水文特征的背景下解释了这一点。描述了风应力-地表速度的两种(统计)耦合模式,并根据历史信息和新信息进行了解释。在一个复杂的图景中,热大陆架锋面的强度、沿岸流和幼虫的数量将被联系起来,并受到当地风应力的影响。对于大陆架上所检查的所有区域,幼虫/卵丰度对短期气候波动(例如,年复一年)不太敏感,但它们确实对制度变化很敏感。与北纬39°S和北纬41°S平行线接壤的浅层陆架区域将比北纬39°S更清楚地暴露出物理和生物变量之间的联系。我们将这一事实归因于在最南端地区发现的特殊物理条件,这将有利于增加凤尾鱼的栖息地质量。
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引用次数: 28
A Case Study on Curtailed Tidal Hydrodynamic Modeling along UAE Coast 阿联酋海岸缩减潮汐水动力模拟实例研究
Pub Date : 2012-03-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.3.1.45
R. Balaji
A curtailed numerical model has been developed to assess the tidal hydrodynamics of entrance of a navigational channel in Abu Dhabi coast, United Arab Emirates. The curtailed model is developed using a finite element based numerical scheme, RMA2 (Donnell et al., 2006). The boundary conditions for the model were extracted from a large scale numerical model covering entire Abu Dhabi coast, developed using TELEMAC (Hervouet, 2000) modeling software. The hydrodynamic results of the curtailed model are validated with that of large scale model. The comparisons of water levels and current velocities obtained from the two models are found to be in agreement, demonstrating the efficiency and accuracy of the curtailed numerical model. The features of the tidal current pattern in the vicinity of the entrance of the navigational channel are also discussed. The details of the numerical scheme, model setup and methodology are presented and discussed in this paper.
本文建立了一个简化的数值模型,用于评价阿拉伯联合酋长国阿布扎比海岸某航道入口的潮汐水动力。精简模型使用基于有限元的数值方案RMA2 (Donnell等人,2006年)开发。模型的边界条件是从覆盖整个阿布扎比海岸的大尺度数值模型中提取的,该模型使用TELEMAC (Hervouet, 2000)建模软件开发。缩小模型的水动力学结果与大比例尺模型的水动力学结果进行了验证。两种模型所得的水位和流速的比较结果一致,证明了简化后的数值模型的有效性和准确性。文中还讨论了航道入口附近的潮流型特征。本文详细介绍了数值方案、模型建立和方法。
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引用次数: 2
Climate Change Impacts on the Stability of Small Tidal Inlets: A Numerical Modelling Study Using the Realistic Analogue Approach 气候变化对小潮入口稳定性的影响:采用现实模拟方法的数值模拟研究
Pub Date : 2012-02-20 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.3.3.163
T. Duong, R. Ranasinghe, A. Luijendijk, H. Ngo, D. Roelvink
Tidal inlets are of great societal importance as they are often associated with ports and harbours, industry, tourism, recreation and prime waterfront real estate. Their behaviour is governed by the delicate balance of oceanic processes (tides, waves and mean sea level), and fluvial/estuarine processes (riverflow and heat fluxes), all of which can be significantly affected by climate change (CC) processes. This study investigates the potential range of CC impacts on the stability (closed/open state and locational stability) via the application of a sophisticated process based morphodynamic model (Delft3D) to strategically selected schematized inlet morphologies and forcing conditions. Results show that, under worst case scenario conditions, the integrated effect of climate change driven increase in mean sea level, wave height and wave angle may significantly change inlet stability condition.
潮汐入口具有重要的社会意义,因为它们通常与港口、工业、旅游、娱乐和主要的滨水房地产有关。它们的行为受到海洋过程(潮汐、波浪和平均海平面)和河流/河口过程(河流流量和热通量)的微妙平衡的支配,所有这些过程都可能受到气候变化过程的显著影响。本研究通过将基于复杂过程的形态动力学模型(Delft3D)应用于战略选择的示意图进气道形态和强迫条件,研究了CC对稳定性(关闭/打开状态和位置稳定性)的潜在影响范围。结果表明,在最坏情况下,气候变化驱动的平均海平面、波高和波角的综合效应会显著改变进水口的稳定状况。
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引用次数: 6
Time Domain Response Analysis of Barge Floater Supporting an Offshore Wind Turbine 支撑海上风力发电机组的驳船浮子时域响应分析
Pub Date : 2011-12-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.2.4.303
A. C. Mayilvahanan, P. Selvam
Wind energy is a reliable source of sustainable power generation and has been an active area of research globally to economically harness the energy for human use. Reliable source of wind energy pushed the engineers to install wind turbines near and far off the coasts. In shallow water upto 100 m, fixed structures like tripods, jackets, monopiles and gravity base are functionally and economically feasible. In deep waters, a floating substructure can be more economical for offshore wind turbine. In this study a barge type floater of different aspect ratios from 0.4 to 1.0 is investigated for its performance under wave and wind loading. All these floaters were designed with a defined transverse metacentric height (GM) equal to 1.0 m and the hydrodynamic analysis is carried out using WAMIT. The barge with aspect ratio B/L = 1.0 is found to have lowest pitch RAO. The time domain surge, heave and pitch response for this barge has been obtained using Integro-differential equation of motion and the statistical response characteristics are compared for two different cases of excitation namely, wave excitation alone and combined wave and wind excitation. Statistics of surge, heave and pitch responses are obtained for three different seas states and for two different wave heading angles.
风能是一种可靠的可持续发电来源,一直是全球研究的活跃领域,以经济地利用能源供人类使用。可靠的风能资源促使工程师们在海岸附近和远离海岸的地方安装风力涡轮机。在100米以下的浅水中,固定结构如三脚架、护套、单桩和重力基础在功能和经济上都是可行的。在深水中,浮动子结构对于海上风力涡轮机来说更为经济。研究了长径比为0.4 ~ 1.0的驳船式浮子在波浪和风荷载作用下的性能。所有浮体的横向稳心高度(GM)均设定为1.0 m,并采用WAMIT进行水动力分析。发现长径比B/L = 1.0的驳船具有最低的俯仰RAO。利用运动积分微分方程得到了该驳船的时域浪涌、升沉和俯仰响应,并比较了波浪单独激励和波浪与风联合激励两种不同激励情况下的统计响应特性。在三种不同的海况和两种不同的浪向角下,获得了浪涌、升沉和俯仰响应的统计数据。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
The International Journal of Ocean and Climate Systems
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