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A Wavelet and Neuro-Fuzzy Conjunction Model to Forecast Air Temperature Variations at Coastal Sites 小波与神经模糊联合模型预测沿海地区气温变化
Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.6.4.159
S. Karimi, O. Kisi, J. Shiri, Oleg Makarynskyy
The present paper investigates performance of neuro-fuzzy (NF) and wavelet-neuro-fuzzy (WNF)conjunction models in short- and long-term forecasts of air temperature. A NF and two WNF models were developed and validated using daily air temperature data collected at two coastal stations in Iran, namely, Ahwaz and Izeh. The comparison of ANFIS and WANFIS models indicated that the conjunction models performed better than the single ANFIS model especially in forecasting weekly and monthly air temperatures. The coefficient of determination (R2), the root mean square error (RMSE) and adjusted coefficient of efficiency (E1) were used as comparison criteria. For the Ahwaz and Izeh stations, the WANFIS model increased the accuracy of single ANFIS model by 23-13% (Ahwaz) and 21-8% (Izeh) with respect to RMSE in forecasting one-week and one-month ahead maximum air temperatures, respectively.
本文研究了神经模糊(NF)和小波神经模糊(WNF)联合模型在短期和长期气温预报中的性能。利用伊朗两个沿海站(即Ahwaz和Izeh)收集的每日气温数据,开发了一个NF和两个WNF模型并对其进行了验证。ANFIS和WANFIS模型的比较表明,联合模型在预报周气温和月气温方面优于单一的ANFIS模型。以决定系数(R2)、均方根误差(RMSE)和调整后的效率系数(E1)作为比较标准。对于Ahwaz和Izeh站,WANFIS模型在预测一周和一个月的最高气温时,相对RMSE的精度分别提高了23-13% (Ahwaz)和21-8% (Izeh)。
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引用次数: 6
Numerical Simulation: Hydro-Morphology of Meghna Estuary 梅克纳河河口水文形态的数值模拟
Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.6.4.173
M. Uddin, J. Alam, Z. Khan, G. Hasan, R. Alam
The Meghna Estuary is formed by the combined flows from three great rivers in the south-east Asia; the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. This estuary experiences dynamic hydro-morphological changes due to very high discharge of water and sediment from these three mighty rivers. Erosion and accretion occur simultaneously at very high rates; such that, the flow and sediment discharge through the estuary are the third highest and the highest, respectively, in the world. On the other hand, the tidal current itself is also strongly affected by the dynamic morphology changes. It is thus essential to understand the hydraulic behavior and interactive features of tides and morphology change in the estuary. With this end in view a two dimensional general model of Bay of Bengal was developed under cyclone shelter preparatory study (csps) undertaken by Bangladesh Government and the model was updated later during other projects. The present article focuses on development of model, its set-up, boundary conditions and few calibration results of this two dimensional hydrodynamic and morphology model. The model applications clearly show the variation of the flow structure; their speed and direction separately for monsoon and dry season around the model area which covers the northern part of Bay of Bengal more specifically the Meghna Estuary.
梅克纳河河口是由东南亚的三条大河汇流而成;恒河、雅鲁藏布江和梅克纳河。由于这三条大河的水沙流量很大,河口经历了动态的水文形态变化。侵蚀和增生同时以很高的速率发生;因此,入海口的流量和输沙量分别居世界第三和世界第一。另一方面,潮流本身也受到动态形态变化的强烈影响。因此,了解河口潮汐和形态变化的水力行为和相互作用特征是必要的。为此目的,在孟加拉国政府进行的旋风庇护所筹备研究中,编制了孟加拉湾的二维一般模型,后来在其他项目中更新了该模型。本文重点介绍了该二维水动力和形态模型的发展、建立、边界条件和一些标定结果。模型应用清楚地显示了流动结构的变化;它们的速度和方向分别为季风和干旱季节的模式区域,覆盖孟加拉湾北部,更具体地说是梅克纳河河口。
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引用次数: 4
Waves on the Water Surface — Mathematical Models — Part 1 水面上的波浪-数学模型-第1部分
Pub Date : 2015-09-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.6.3.113
V. Shakhin, T. V. Shakhina
The work presents new expressions related to wave energy density and flux based on Stokes and cnoidal waves theories. It shows that as progressive waves of finite amplitude propagate a compensatory reverse flow is formed within the bottom fluid layers. The existence of such flow was experimentally confirmed. Modified mathematical models for surface waves over a non-uniform bottom and of a free plane configuration are suggested. A method of calculating the wave transformation and the currents in the surf zone is proposed. Computations made over a wide range of variations in wave parameters are presented.
本文提出了基于斯托克斯和余弦波理论的波浪能量密度和通量的新表达式。结果表明,当有限振幅的渐进波传播时,在底层流体层内形成补偿逆流。实验证实了这种流动的存在。提出了非均匀底表面波和自由平面结构表面波的修正数学模型。提出了一种计算海浪变换和海浪区水流的方法。对波浪参数的大范围变化进行了计算。
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引用次数: 2
Waves on the Water Surface — Mathematical Models — Part 2 水面上的波浪-数学模型-第2部分
Pub Date : 2015-09-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.6.3.137
V. Shakhin, T. V. Shakhina
This is Part 2 of the paper titled: “Waves on water surface — mathematical models”. It deals with the wave transformation above a non-uniform bed surface, treating it as a linear as well as a nonlinear problem.
这是论文的第二部分,题目是:“水面上的波浪——数学模型”。它处理非均匀床面上的波变换,将其视为线性问题和非线性问题。
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引用次数: 0
Observed Intraseasonal and Interannual Variability of Arabian Sea Warm Pool along the Gulf of Aden to Strait of Malacca shipping Lane during 1951–2010 1951-2010年亚丁湾至马六甲海峡航道阿拉伯海暖池的季节内和年际变化
Pub Date : 2015-06-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.6.2.55
R. Rao, M. Jitendra, R. Sivakumar, S. Ramakrishna
All the available historic surface marine meteorological data collected from Voluntary Observing Ships (VOS) in the tropical Indian Ocean during the period 1951–2010, archived by National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA are assembled, quality controlled, processed and analyzed. Data for all the meteorological parameters stratified into 4° latitude by 1° longitude boxes, over five day durations, for all the 60 years are quality controlled, averaged and analyzed to portray the observed spatio-temporal evolution of all these parameters as Hovmoller diagrams for the Gulf of Aden to Strait of Malacca shipping lane. Two dimensional machine contouring is carried out with appropriate colour shading intensities to highlight the maxima and minima in the analyzed fields. The observed intraseasonal and interannual variability of these parameters is characterized along this shipping lane. These analyzed distributions amply highlight the observed variability of the surface meteorological parameters both on intraseasonal and interannual time scales during 1951–2010. Composites of SST and other marine meteorological parameters for strong and weak ASWP regimes, for strong and weak monsoon years, for El Nino (+1Y) and La Nina (+1Y) years and for Positive and Negative IOD (+1Y) years are presented.
由美国科罗拉多州博尔德国家大气研究中心(National Centre for Atmospheric Research)存档的1951-2010年热带印度洋自愿观测船(VOS)收集的所有可获得的历史表面海洋气象数据进行了组装、质量控制、处理和分析。所有气象参数的数据分层成4°纬度和1°经度的盒子,超过5天的时间跨度,所有60年的质量控制,平均和分析,以描绘观测到的所有这些参数的时空演变为亚丁湾到马六甲海峡航道的Hovmoller图。用适当的颜色阴影强度进行二维机器轮廓,以突出分析域中的最大值和最小值。观测到的这些参数的季节内和年际变化特征沿着这条航道。这些分析的分布充分突出了1951-2010年观测到的地表气象参数在季节内和年际时间尺度上的变率。给出了强、弱ASWP、强季风年和弱季风年、El Nino (+1Y)和La Nina (+1Y)年以及正、负IOD (+1Y)年的海温和其他海洋气象参数的复合。
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引用次数: 1
Observed Variability of Near-Surface Salinity Field on Seasonal and Interannual Time Scales and Its Impact on the Evolution of Sea Surface Temperature of the Tropical Indian Ocean 热带印度洋近地表盐度场在季节和年际时间尺度上的变化及其对海温演变的影响
Pub Date : 2015-06-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.6.2.87
R. Rao
A subset of the newly published salinity and temperature climatologies of the global ocean is assembled to examine the observed seasonal variability of the near-surface salinity field of the tropical Indian Ocean. The role of vertical haline stratification in the near-surface layers on the manifestation of the barrier layer thickness in the new climatology is addressed. The warm pool of the tropical Indian Ocean is characterized to identify the geographic regions where the near-surface haline stratification and the warm pool core co-exist. Among the three regions within the warm pool of the tropical Indian Ocean, viz., southeastern Arabian Sea, southwestern Bay of Bengal and eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, a strong coupling between the near-surface haline stratification and the subsequent evolution of the warm pool core is most prominently seen only in the southeastern Arabian Sea. The observed year to year co-variability of the near-surface low salinity pool and the warm pool core in the southeastern Arabian Sea is examined.
本文收集了新发表的全球海洋盐度和温度气候学的一个子集,以检验观测到的热带印度洋近地表盐度场的季节变化。讨论了新气候学中近地面垂直盐层作用对阻挡层厚度表现的影响。对热带印度洋暖池进行了表征,确定了近地表盐层与暖池核共存的地理区域。在热带印度洋暖池的三个区域中,即阿拉伯海东南部、孟加拉湾西南部和赤道印度洋东部,近地表盐层分层与暖池核的后续演化之间的强耦合仅在阿拉伯海东南部最为明显。研究了阿拉伯海东南部近地表低盐度池和暖池核的年共变率。
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引用次数: 3
Inter-Comparison of Hydrodynamic Models of Gulf of Khambhat 甘巴特湾水动力模式的相互比较
Pub Date : 2015-03-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.6.1.35
J. Satheeshkumar, R. Balaji
The complex seabed contours and geometry of basin lead to a unique tidal pattern along India's Gulf of Khambhat (GoK). Estimation of tidal levels and associated currents in this basin is challenging due to the amplification of tides and intense current magnitudes. In this study, the finite difference based numerical model, Delft3D-FLOW has been set up. Spatially varying bottom roughness parameters have been used to estimate the tidal levels and currents for the entire basin and the results are compared with an earlier work of Sathish Kumar and Balaji (2014 and 2015) based on an alternative finite element based numerical model, Telemac2D. An inter-comparison of model results shows good agreement with each other and with the field measurements. The tidal levels are observed to vary from 2m to more than 10m in the narrowing portion of the gulf while the maximum current velocity is seen as 3m/s.
复杂的海底轮廓和盆地的几何形状导致了印度坎巴特湾(GoK)独特的潮汐模式。由于潮汐的放大和强烈的海流强度,估计该盆地的潮位和相关海流具有挑战性。本研究建立了基于有限差分的数值模型Delft3D-FLOW。空间变化的底部粗糙度参数被用于估计整个盆地的潮汐水位和水流,并将结果与Sathish Kumar和Balaji(2014年和2015年)基于另一种基于有限元的数值模型Telemac2D的早期工作进行了比较。模型计算结果相互比较表明,模型计算结果与实测结果吻合较好。在海湾较窄的部分,观察到潮位从2米到10米以上不等,而最大水流速度为3米/秒。
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引用次数: 6
Statistical Analysis of Non-Stationary Waves off the Savannah Coast, Georgia, USA 美国乔治亚州萨凡纳海岸非平稳波的统计分析
Pub Date : 2015-03-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.6.1.1
Xiufeng Yang
The statistical characteristics of short-term wave records collected from a wave buoy deployed off the coast of Savannah, Georgia, USA are analyzed. The statistical distribution of observed surface elevation is derived and compared with theoretical estimations. The minimum length of time series for stationary conditions is specified using a synthetic approach. A new technique that considers the variability of different dimensionless parameters has been introduced to improve the theoretical distributions of wave crests, troughs and heights. The observed distributions of wave crests and troughs are computed and compared with the Rayleigh distribution as well as the Tayfun distribution. The characteristic wave heights of measured data are compared with those estimated from the Boccotti distribution over different time intervals. The empirical estimation of expected maximum wave heights as a function of the number of waves is examined using a statistical approach, and compared with results from both Boccotti and Tayfun models using the newly introduced technique. Conclusions concerning the efficacy and applicability of theoretical distributions to real ocean wave conditions are summarized.
分析了在美国乔治亚州萨凡纳海岸部署的波浪浮标收集的短期波浪记录的统计特征。推导了观测地表高程的统计分布,并与理论估计进行了比较。用一种综合方法确定了平稳条件下时间序列的最小长度。为了改进波峰、波谷和波高的理论分布,引入了一种考虑不同无量纲参数变化的新技术。计算了观测到的波峰和波谷分布,并与瑞利分布和泰丰分布进行了比较。将实测数据的特征波高与不同时间间隔的Boccotti分布的特征波高进行了比较。使用统计方法检验了预期最大波高作为波数函数的经验估计,并使用新引入的技术与Boccotti和Tayfun模型的结果进行了比较。总结了理论分布对实际海浪条件的有效性和适用性的结论。
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引用次数: 1
Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Marine Ecosystem in the North Indian Ocean: A Model Evaluation Study 北印度洋海洋生态系统的季节和年际变化:一个模式评估研究
Pub Date : 2015-03-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.6.1.19
M. Sharada, C. Devasena, P. Swathi, M.V. SundaraDeepthi, M.K. ShelvaSrinivasan, K. Yajnik
We have investigated the climatological and interannual variability of biogeochemical cycles in the north Indian Ocean with simulations of TOPAZ (Tracers Of Phytoplankton with Allometric Zooplankton) during 1949–2009. Model simulations have been carried out with climatological and interannual fluxes forcings and the results have been evaluated by using the available data from different sources in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. The model captures significant spatial and seasonal features in surface chlorophyll and primary productivity observed in satellite data. Seasonal and interannual variations, and profiles of a few of the state variables obtained from the coupled model simulations compare well with the cruise and satellite data at a few stations for many seasons in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. We have also studied the spatial, seasonal and interannual variations of sea surface temperature (SST) and surface chlorophyll anomalies in the north Indian Ocean using model simulation results and satellite data. It is seen that a negative surface chlorophyll anomaly correlates well with a positive SST anomaly.
利用TOPAZ (phytotracers of plankton with alloometric Zooplankton)模拟研究了1949-2009年间北印度洋生物地球化学循环的气候和年际变化。对气候和年际通量强迫进行了模式模拟,并利用阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾不同来源的现有数据对模拟结果进行了评价。该模式捕获了卫星数据观测到的地表叶绿素和初级生产力的显著空间和季节特征。从耦合模式模拟中获得的季节和年际变化以及一些状态变量的剖面图与阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾几个站点的许多季节的巡航和卫星数据比较好。我们还利用模式模拟结果和卫星资料研究了北印度洋海温(SST)和海面叶绿素异常的空间、季节和年际变化。表层叶绿素负异常与海温正异常具有良好的相关性。
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引用次数: 3
Prediction of Hydrodynamic Characteristics of Quarter Circular Breakwater Using Stepwise Regression 四分之一圆防波堤水动力特性的逐步回归预测
Pub Date : 2015-03-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.6.1.47
R. Goyal, Kriti Singh, A. Hegde, G. Thakur
Quarter Circular Breakwater (QBW) is emerging as a new topic of research for port engineers worldwide, with a special emphasis on its hydrodynamic performance characteristics. QBW is a new type of breakwater based on the principles of Semicircular breakwater (SBW). The present paper discusses the development of prediction models for the coefficient of transmission of QBW using MATLAB based stepwise regression approach. Data used for the modeling was obtained from experiments conducted on scaled downed physical models of QBW in the regular wave flume available at the Marine Structures laboratory of the Department of Applied Mechanics and Hydraulics, National Institute of Technology Karnataka (NITK), Surathkal in India. Using the stepwise method to perform a multi-linear regression of the transmission coefficient (Kt), a relation was established in terms of independent parameters such as wave height (H), wave period (T) and depth of water (d).
四分之一圆防波堤(QBW)是世界范围内港口工程研究的一个新课题,其水动力特性是人们关注的重点。QBW是一种基于半圆防波堤原理的新型防波堤。本文讨论了基于MATLAB的逐步回归方法对QBW传输系数预测模型的建立。用于建模的数据来自于在印度苏拉特卡尔卡纳塔克邦国立理工学院应用力学和水力学系海洋结构实验室的常规波浪水槽中进行的按比例缩小的QBW物理模型实验。利用逐步回归方法对透射系数Kt进行多元线性回归,建立了波高(H)、波周期(T)和水深(d)等独立参数的关系。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
The International Journal of Ocean and Climate Systems
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