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Real Time Wave Forecasting Using Wind Time History and Genetic Programming 利用风时历史和遗传规划进行实时波浪预测
Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.5.4.249
A. Kambekar, M. C. Deo
The significant wave height and average wave period form an essential input for operational activities in ocean and coastal areas. Such information is important in issuing appropriate warnings to people planning any construction or instillation works in the oceanic environment. Many countries over the world routinely collect wave and wind data through a network of wave rider buoys. The data collecting agencies transmit the resulting information online to their registered users through an internet or a web-based system. Operational wave forecasts in addition to the measured data are also made and supplied online to the users. This paper discusses operational wave forecasting in real time mode at locations where wind rather than wave data are continuously recorded. It is based on the time series modeling and incorporates an artificial intelligence technique of genetic programming. The significant wave height and average wave period values are forecasted over a period of 96 hr in future from the observations of wind speed and directions extending to a similar time scale in the past. Wind measurements made by floating buoys at eight different locations around India over a period varying from 1.5 yr to 9.0 yr were considered. The platform of Matlab and C++ was used to develop a graphical user interface that will extend an internet based user-friendly access of the forecasts to any registered user of the data dissemination authority.
有效浪高和平均波浪周期是海洋和沿海地区业务活动的重要输入。这些资料对于向计划在海洋环境中进行任何建筑或注入工程的人发出适当警告十分重要。世界上许多国家定期通过一个波浪浮标网络收集波浪和风的数据。数据收集机构通过互联网或基于网络的系统将结果信息在线传输给其注册用户。除测量数据外,还在线制作并向用户提供业务波浪预报。本文讨论了在连续记录风而不是波浪数据的地点进行实时操作海浪预报。它以时间序列建模为基础,结合了遗传规划的人工智能技术。根据过去类似时间尺度的风速和风向观测,预测未来96小时内的显著波高和平均波周期值。考虑了在印度周围8个不同地点的浮动浮标在1.5年至9.0年期间进行的风测量。使用Matlab和c++平台开发图形用户界面,将基于互联网的用户友好访问预报扩展到数据发布机构的任何注册用户。
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引用次数: 5
Management of Coastal Erosion Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques (SE India) 利用遥感和GIS技术管理海岸侵蚀(印度东南部)
Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.5.4.211
S. Saravanan, N. Chandrasekar, M. Rajamanickam, C. Hentry, V. Joevivek
World wide, coastal erosion is recognized as a great threat for beach environment. Total control of coastal erosion is not feasible but it should not be ignored and needs timely management. Erosional activities have been significantly noticed along the coastal tract of Vembar and Kallar (Kallurani), South India. An attempt has been made here to delineate different zones based on their sand budget and erosion rate. Linear Imaging Self Scanning Sensor (LISS) III 2001 and Linear Imaging Self Scanning Sensor III and PAN merged data of the year 2001 have been utilized to identify the coastal geomorphological features, shoreline changes and river course changes. A Geographic Information System (GIS) software namely ArcGIS (9.1) has been used as a tool to delineate the coastal erosion hazard for proper planning and management of coastal developments. Beach profile studies have shown significant variation in the beach morphology. The study area has been categorized into five different zones in the GIS analysis based on the degree of coastal erosion and sediment dynamics namely (i) very high - Kalaignanapuram, (ii) high - Sippikulam (iii) medium - Periyasamypuram (iv) low - Vembar and Kallar (Kallurani) (v) very low - Pachayapuram.
在世界范围内,海岸侵蚀被认为是对海滩环境的巨大威胁。全面控制海岸侵蚀是不可行的,但也不能忽视,需要及时治理。印度南部的Vembar和Kallar (Kallurani)沿海地区的侵蚀活动非常明显。这里已经尝试根据砂的收支和侵蚀速率来划定不同的区域。利用2001年LISS III和2001年LISS III与PAN合并的数据,对海岸地貌特征、岸线变化和河道变化进行了识别。我们使用地理资讯系统软件ArcGIS(9.1)来描绘海岸侵蚀的危害,以便妥善规划和管理海岸发展。海滩剖面研究显示,海滩形态有显著变化。在GIS分析中,根据海岸侵蚀和泥沙动力学的程度,将研究区划分为5个不同的区域,即(i)非常高- Kalaignanapuram, (ii)高- Sippikulam, (iii)中- Periyasamypuram, (iv)低- Vembar和Kallar (Kallurani), (v)非常低- Pachayapuram。
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引用次数: 14
Forecasting Sea Water Levels at Mukho Station, South Korea Using Soft Computing Techniques 利用软计算技术预测韩国Mukho站的海平面
Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.5.4.175
O. Kisi, S. Karimi, J. Shiri, Oleg Makarynskyy, Heesung Yoon
The accuracy of three different data-driven methods, namely, Gene Expression Programming (GEP), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), is investigated for hourly sea water level prediction at the Mukho Station in the East Sea (Sea of Japan). Current and four previous level measurements are used as input variables to predict sea water levels up to 1, 24, 48, 72, 96 and 120 hours ahead. Three statistical evaluation parameters, namely, the correlation coefficient, the root mean square error and the scatter index are used to assess how the models perform. Investigation results indicate that, when compared to measurements, for +1h prediction interval, all three models perform well (with average values of R = 0.993, RMSE = 1.3 cm and SI = 0.04), with slightly better results produced by the ANNs and ANFIS, while increasing the prediction interval degrades model performance.
研究了基因表达编程(GEP)、自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)和人工神经网络(ANN)三种数据驱动方法在东海(日本海)木湖站逐时海平面预报中的准确性。当前和以前的四个水位测量值被用作输入变量来预测未来1、24、48、72、96和120小时的海平面。使用相关系数、均方根误差和散点指数三个统计评价参数来评价模型的性能。研究结果表明,与测量值相比,在+1小时的预测区间内,3种模型均表现良好(R = 0.993, RMSE = 1.3 cm, SI = 0.04),其中人工神经网络和人工神经系统的预测效果略好,而增加预测区间会降低模型的性能。
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引用次数: 15
Experimental Studies on a Scaled Model of a Tension Based Tension Leg Platform under Combined Mooring and Tether Conditions 系泊与系绳结合条件下张力腿平台比例模型试验研究
Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.5.4.199
D. S. B. Rao, R. Selvam, N. Srinivasan
Tension Based Tension Leg Platform (TBTLP) is an innovative concept wherein a Tension Leg Platform (TLP) designed for a certain depth can be extended to operate in deeper waters by mounting the surface structure (TLP) on a buoyant closed box structure, Tension Base. The motion control of Tension Base is very important for satisfactory performance of the mounted TLP. In this paper, the concepts are briefly introduced and experiments conducted on a 1:150 scaled model of the TBTLP in 3 m water depth with three different combinations of tether and mooring stiffnesses are presented. Experiments were also conducted on the same TLP (without Tension Base) in two different water depths (3 m and 1 m). Results are presented in terms of Response Amplitude Operators (RAOs) in the surge, heave and pitch degrees of freedom of TBTLP and are compared with RAOs of TLPs in 3 m and 1 m to highlight the efficacy of the new concept.
基于张力的张力腿平台(TBTLP)是一种创新概念,其中为一定深度设计的张力腿平台(TLP)可以通过将表面结构(TLP)安装在浮力封闭的张力基座上,扩展到更深的水域。张力基座的运动控制是保证安装张力腿的良好性能的关键。本文简要介绍了这些概念,并在3m水深1:150的TBTLP模型上进行了三种不同系绳和系泊刚度组合的实验。在不同水深(3 m和1 m)条件下,对同一张力腿(不带张力基座)进行了实验,给出了张力腿在喘振、升沉和俯仰自由度上的响应幅值算子(RAOs)的结果,并与张力腿在3 m和1 m的响应幅值算子进行了比较,以突出新概念的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Wave Forecasting Using Neuro Wavelet Technique 基于神经小波技术的波浪预测
Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.5.4.237
P. Dixit, S. Londhe, Y. Dandawate
In the present work a hybrid Neuro-Wavelet Technique is used for forecasting waves up to 6 hr, 12 hr, 18 hr and 24 hr in advance using hourly measured significant wave heights at an NDBC station 41004 near the east coast of USA. The NW Technique is employed by combining two methods, Discrete Wavelet Transform and Artificial Neural Networks. The hourly data of previously measured significant wave heights spanning over 2 years from 2010 and 2011 is used to calibrate and test the models. The discrete wavelet transform of NWT analyzes frequency of signal with respect to time at different scales. It decomposes time series into low (approximate) and high (detail) frequency components. The decomposition of approximate can be carried out up to desired multiple levels in order to provide more detail and approximate components which provides relatively smooth varying amplitude series. The neural network is trained with decorrelated approximate and detail wavelet coefficients. The outputs of networks during testing are reconstructed back using inverse DWT. The results were judged by drawing the wave plots, scatter plots and other error measures. The developed models show reasonable accuracy in prediction of significant wave heights from 6 to 24 hours. To compare the results traditional ANN models were also developed at the same location using the same data and for same time interval.
在目前的工作中,混合神经-小波技术用于预测海浪高达6小时,12小时,18小时和24小时,利用每小时测量的显著波高在美国东海岸附近的NDBC站41004。NW技术将离散小波变换和人工神经网络两种方法相结合。利用2010年和2011年两年间每小时测量的有效波高数据来校准和测试模型。NWT的离散小波变换在不同尺度上分析信号的频率与时间的关系。它将时间序列分解为低(近似)和高(详细)频率分量。近似分解可以进行到所需的多个级别,以提供更多的细节和近似分量,从而提供相对平滑的变化幅度序列。利用去相关的近似小波系数和细节小波系数对神经网络进行训练。利用逆小波变换对测试过程中网络的输出进行重构。通过绘制波浪图、散点图和其他误差测量来判断结果。所建立的模式在预报6 ~ 24小时的显著波高方面具有较好的精度。为了比较结果,还在同一地点使用相同的数据和相同的时间间隔建立了传统的人工神经网络模型。
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引用次数: 5
A Field Study of Atmospheric Icing Analysis in a Complex Terrain of the High North 高北复杂地形大气结冰分析的野外研究
Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.5.4.189
Taimur Rashid, U. Mughal, Mohamed Y. Mustafa, M. S. Virk
Analyses of atmospheric icing events hold the key for computing the significant parameters leading to icing load calculations. In the cold regions of the high north, atmospheric icing loads on structures become important when it comes to design and safety of infrastructures. Furthermore, icing load calculations over a certain period of time provide a vital input for designers to improve the safety of structures. Patterns of icing events can be evaluated in correlation with other meteorological parameters such as atmospheric temperature, relative humidity and wind speed to better estimate icing loads. A field study has been performed in the complex terrain of northern Norway, by the atmospheric icing research team of Narvik University College, where customized meteorological atmospheric ice monitoring stations were installed to study atmospheric icing events in relation with the associated weather parameters. The meteorological parameters of three different sites in the vicinity of Narvik (68°25′14′ N17°33′36′ E) were collected, sorted, averaged to standardized timeline and further validated with recordings of weathers parameters obtained from the national weather forecasts, where a good agreement was found. Analyses were mainly performed between accreted ice loads and associated meteorological parameters. The results presented can be used as base for the development of more detailed mathematical models for the better prediction of atmospheric icing events in complex terrains.
大气结冰事件的分析是计算导致结冰荷载计算的重要参数的关键。在高北寒冷地区,大气结冰荷载对基础设施的设计和安全至关重要。此外,在一定时间内的结冰荷载计算为设计人员提供了重要的输入,以提高结构的安全性。结冰事件的模式可以与其他气象参数(如大气温度、相对湿度和风速)相关联来评估,以更好地估计结冰负荷。纳尔维克大学学院的大气结冰研究小组在挪威北部复杂的地形进行了实地研究,在那里安装了定制的气象大气结冰监测站,以研究与相关天气参数相关的大气结冰事件。收集了Narvik附近三个不同站点(北纬68°25′14′N17°33′36′E)的气象参数,对其进行了排序,平均到标准化时间线,并与国家天气预报中获得的天气参数记录进一步验证,发现两者具有很好的一致性。主要分析了冰荷载与相关气象参数之间的关系。所得结果可作为建立更详细的数学模型的基础,以更好地预测复杂地形下的大气结冰事件。
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引用次数: 3
Estimation of Significant Wave Heights Using Numerical and Neural Techniques and Comparison with Buoy and Satellite Observations 利用数值和神经技术估算有效浪高,并与浮标和卫星观测比较
Pub Date : 2014-12-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.5.4.223
J. Vimala, G. Latha, R. Venkatesan
Short term significant wave heights have been evaluated using the numerical WAM model and the results are compared with satellite (Jason-2) and moored buoy measurements. Additionally artificial neural network (ANN) is used to predict significant wave heights over a future time step and such predictions are also compared with corresponding satellite and buoy measurements. The observations from moored buoys monitored by India's National Institute of Ocean Technology for a period of about four and a half years at three locations in the Arabian Sea and three in Bay of Bengal covering the west as well as east coast of India are involved. The buoy recorded largest waves during the cyclonic condition, and this was confirmed at a location code named: BD11 by the satellite measurements as well as the WAM and ANN based evaluations. The evaluation accuracy reflected in the coefficient of correlation is found to be high in the Arabian Sea than the Bay of Bengal.
使用数值WAM模型评估了短期有效浪高,并将结果与卫星(Jason-2)和系泊浮标测量结果进行了比较。此外,人工神经网络(ANN)用于预测未来时间步长的重要波高,并将这种预测与相应的卫星和浮标测量结果进行比较。印度国家海洋技术研究所(National Institute of Ocean Technology)在大约四年半的时间里,在阿拉伯海的三个地点和孟加拉湾的三个地点监测了系泊浮标的观测结果,覆盖了印度西海岸和东海岸。在气旋条件下,浮标记录了最大的波浪,这在一个代号为BD11的位置得到了卫星测量以及基于WAM和ANN的评估的证实。相关系数所反映的评价精度在阿拉伯海比孟加拉湾高。
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引用次数: 5
Experimental Investigations of Acceleration on Slender Cylindrical Member under Breaking Waves 破碎波作用下细长圆柱构件加速度的实验研究
Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.5.3.117
R. Manjula, S. Sannasiraj, K. Palanichamy
Many of the coastal and offshore structures consist of slender cylindrical member as the fundamental component. Since the structural damages and failures are catastrophic under wave impact, it is essential to understand the influence of breaking wave impact on the structural members. Past literature dictates that the magnitude of impact pressures is of the order of ten times more than the non breaking wave induced pressure. The standard codal provisions for the structural design of those members under breaking wave impact are scarce. In the present study, an experimental investigation has been carried out to measure the response of the slender vertical cylinder under breaking waves. Acceleration measurements were made under the incidence of breaking waves of different intensities varying from Plunging to Spilling. Deflections are found out from the measured acceleration. The maximum acceleration observed under severe plunging event is 0.5 times that of moderate plunging event, the deflection induced by the moderate plunging is two order higher than that of severe plunging. Acceleration is maximum not only above still water level (SWL) but also lies in the impact zone. Hence moderate plunging events with higher impulse and larger pressure rise time is crucial in the design of offshore and coastal structural member under breaking wave impact load.
许多沿海和近海结构都由细长的圆柱形构件作为基本构件组成。由于波浪冲击对结构的破坏是灾难性的,因此了解破碎波冲击对结构构件的影响是十分必要的。过去的文献表明,冲击压力的量级是非破碎波诱导压力的十倍。对于这些构件在破浪冲击下的结构设计,规范的标准规定很少。在本研究中,进行了一项实验研究,测量了细长垂直圆柱体在破碎波作用下的响应。在不同强度的破碎波入射下进行了从下坠到溢出的加速度测量。从测量的加速度中找出挠度。剧烈撞击时观测到的最大加速度是中度撞击时的0.5倍,中度撞击引起的偏转比剧烈撞击大2个数量级。加速度的最大值不仅存在于静水位以上,而且存在于撞击区。因此,在破碎波冲击荷载作用下的海工结构构件设计中,具有较大冲量和较大升压时间的适度下坠事件至关重要。
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引用次数: 5
Numerical Modeling Technique for Tracking of Disposed Dredged Material in Offshore Area 近海疏浚废弃物处置跟踪的数值模拟技术
Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.5.3.127
V. Shukla, T. Nagendra, N. Sharma
The investigation in the present study for numerical simulation of the bed load movement and dispersion of the open water disposal of dredged material compares the results of the Radio Active Tracer (RAT) experiment near New Mangalore Port with the simulation of the same using MIKE-21 software module namely HD (Hydrodynamic) and MT (Mud Transport). In the modeling technique adopted the model input parameters have been modified to uniquely capture the dispersion of the dumped sediments and the results compare well with the in-situ RAT experiments. The present outcome of the modeling exercise is limited only to the dispersion pattern of the sediments vis-à-vis RAT experiment and thus is more qualitative and needs further studies for quantitative comparison.
本研究对露天水域疏浚物料的床载移动和分散进行了数值模拟,将新芒格洛尔港附近的放射性活性示踪剂(RAT)实验结果与使用MIKE-21软件模块HD(水动力)和MT(泥浆输送)进行的模拟结果进行了比较。所采用的建模技术对模型输入参数进行了修改,使其能够独特地捕捉倾倒沉积物的分散,其结果与现场RAT实验结果相吻合。目前的模拟结果仅限于沉积物在-à-vis RAT实验中的分散模式,因此更定性,需要进一步研究进行定量比较。
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引用次数: 2
Assessment of Kinetic Tidal Energy Resources Using SELFE 基于self的动态潮汐能资源评价
Pub Date : 2014-09-01 DOI: 10.1260/1759-3131.5.3.141
M. Behera, P. Tkalich
An investigation is carried out to study the theoretical tidal stream energy resource in the Singapore Strait to support the search for renewable energy in the effort to reduce the carbon footprints in the Southeast Asia. The tidal hydrodynamics in the Singapore Strait has been simulated using a Semi-implicit Eulerian-Lagrangian Finite-Element (SELFE) model solving the 3D shallow water equations with Boussinesq approximations. Potential sites, with high tidal current (2.5 m/s) and suitable for Tidal Energy Converter (TEC) array installation to generate sustainable energy, have been identified. Further, various operational factors for installation of Tidal Energy Converters are considered before computing the theoretical power output for a typical TEC array. An approximate estimation of the possible theoretical power extraction from a TEC array shows an energy potential of up to 4.36% of the total energy demand of Singapore in 2011. Thus, the study suggests a detailed investigation of potential sites to quantify the total tidal stream energy potential in the Singapore Strait.
本研究旨在研究新加坡海峡潮汐能的理论资源,以支持寻找可再生能源以减少东南亚地区的碳足迹。采用半隐式欧拉-拉格朗日有限元(SELFE)模型,用Boussinesq近似求解三维浅水方程,模拟了新加坡海峡的潮汐水动力学。已经确定了具有高潮汐流(2.5 m/s)并适合安装潮汐能量转换器(TEC)阵列以产生可持续能源的潜在地点。此外,在计算典型TEC阵列的理论功率输出之前,还考虑了安装潮汐能转换器的各种操作因素。对TEC阵列可能的理论电力提取的近似估计显示,2011年新加坡总能源需求的能源潜力高达4.36%。因此,该研究建议对潜在地点进行详细调查,以量化新加坡海峡的总潮汐流能量潜力。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
The International Journal of Ocean and Climate Systems
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