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Early-Warning System for Desertification Based on Climatic and Hydrologic Criteria 基于气候水文判据的沙漠化预警系统
Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.22059/JDESERT.2019.76359
R. Masoudi, G. Zehtabian, F. Jafary, A. Loáiciga
The United Nations’ convention on desertification encourages the participating countries to introduce criteria for developing Early-Warning Systems (EWS) in order to monitor and assess desertification. The objective of the present study was to establish an EWS for desertification assessment in Kashan plain, Iran, using the methodology of practical and general applicability. Designing EWS requires a model to identify the influential criteria and areas vulnerable to desertification. The Kashan Plain’s EWS relies on the Iranian Model for Desertification Potential Assessment (IMDPA) to establish desertification thresholds and generate desertification maps with Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The EWS of Kashan plain was designed to calculate hydrologic (groundwater level and electric conductivity of groundwater indices) and climatic (precipitation, Transeau aridity, and drought indices) criteria and assess the degree of regional desertification.  Afterwards, the desertification intensity maps of criteria and indices were produced and overlapped. The EWS was developed in areas most bound to be threatened by desertification. EWS quantifies desertification data and thresholds to issue desertification assessments and warnings for management purposes. In the next step, Client–Server program was designed based on an algorithm defined by Java programming language and implemented as a data collection, analysis, and response management system. Whenever the thresholds exceed the defined limits, warning messages can be sent via SMS or internet to relevant system managers for appropriate action.
联合国关于沙漠化的公约鼓励参加国引进发展早期预警系统(EWS)的标准,以便监测和评估沙漠化。本研究的目的是利用实用和普遍适用的方法,建立伊朗卡山平原沙漠化评价的生态系统。设计生态系统需要一个模型来确定影响标准和易受荒漠化影响的地区。卡尚平原的EWS依靠伊朗荒漠化潜力评估模型(IMDPA)来建立荒漠化阈值,并利用地理信息系统(GIS)生成荒漠化地图。设计了喀山平原EWS,用于计算水文(地下水位和地下水电导率指数)和气候(降水、Transeau干旱和干旱指数)指标,并对区域荒漠化程度进行评价。然后,制作标准和指标的沙漠化强度图并进行重叠。生态预警系统是在最容易受到沙漠化威胁的地区开发的。EWS量化荒漠化数据和阈值,发布荒漠化评估和预警,用于管理目的。下一步,根据Java编程语言定义的算法设计Client-Server程序,并实现为数据收集、分析和响应管理系统。当阈值超过定义的限制时,可以通过SMS或internet向相关系统管理人员发送警告消息,以便采取适当的行动。
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引用次数: 0
Calcium carbonate pendants in semiarid soils of Rashakan region (Urmia, Iran) and their paleoclimatic significance 伊朗乌尔米亚Rashakan地区半干旱土壤中的碳酸钙垂饰及其古气候意义
Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.22059/JDESERT.2019.76365
S. Manafi
Accumulation of secondary calcium carbonates in arid and semiarid regions is a valuable tool for evaluating the degree of soil evolution, soil age, palaeoenvironmental reconstruction, and soil classification. In particular, laminated pedogenic carbonate pendants are able to provide evidence regarding local environmental and climatic changes. In this study, calcitic pendants from semiarid soils of Rashakan region (West Azerbaijan province, Iran) were investigated. Rashakan region is composed of four physiographic units, including mountains, hills, plateaus, and piedmont plains. A transect of four soil profiles was studied micromorphologically. Based on micromorphic observations, carbonatic pendants are present as mammillary to botryoidally stalactite-like masses, growing downwards from the bottom of coarse fragments. They are multilayered and comprised several light and dark-colored layers, indicating the differences in calcite precipitation conditions. Sequences of light and dark-colored lamina of pendants probably represent climatic changes. We propose that light-colored lamina with relatively pure calcite are precipitated in dry periods that climatic conditions are not favorable for biological activities. However, dark-colored lamina, consisting of calcite mixed with clay and organic impurities, are formed in relatively wet periods with better conditions for biological activities. Therefore, the sequence of light and dark-colored laminae can reflect climatic variations and be employed as a tool for palaeoclimatical and palaeoenvironmental studies.  In the structure of some pendants, there exist some fractures and voids between pendant and skeletal grains. Accordingly, these pendants must be considered for palaeoclimatical and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions.
干旱半干旱区次生碳酸钙的积累是评价土壤演化程度、土壤年龄、古环境重建和土壤分类的重要工具。特别是层状的成壤碳酸盐岩垂饰,能够提供有关当地环境和气候变化的证据。本文对伊朗西阿塞拜疆省拉沙坎地区半干旱土壤中的钙质悬垂进行了研究。拉沙坎地区由山地、丘陵、高原和山前平原四个地理单元组成。对四个土壤剖面的样条进行了显微形态学研究。根据微形态观察,碳酸垂状物呈乳状至乳状钟乳石状团块,从粗片底部向下生长。它们是多层的,由浅色和深色的几个层组成,表明方解石降水条件的差异。垂饰的浅色和深色薄片序列可能代表了气候变化。我们认为,在气候条件不利于生物活动的干燥时期,方解石相对纯净的浅色层沉积。而由方解石混合粘土和有机杂质组成的深色层状沉积物形成于相对湿润的时期,具有较好的生物活动条件。因此,浅色和深色纹层序列可以反映气候变化,可以作为古气候和古环境研究的工具。在某些垂饰的结构中,垂饰与骨架颗粒之间存在一定的裂隙和空隙。因此,在古气候和古环境重建中必须考虑这些垂坠。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating the effect of superabsorbents on soil moisture and physiological characteristics of Lolium perenne L. 'Chadegan' and Festuca arundinacea. 超吸收剂对多年生黑麦草和高羊茅土壤水分和生理特性的影响。
Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.22059/JDESERT.2019.76363
S. K. Khah, F. Kazemi, M. Shoor
Creating water-conserving turfgrasses using superabsorbents in soil is a challenge especially in arid environments because their related soil and plant’s behavior is still less known. This research investigated soil moisture content and physiological characteristics of Lolium perenne L. ‘Chadegan’ (perennial ryegrass) and Festuca arundinacea (tall fescue), in the absence (control treatment) or presence of four superabsorbent types. The superabsorbents were Zeolite (zero and 10% wt), Bentonite (zero and 6%wt), Aquasorb (zero and 6 g/m2) and Boloorab (zero and 50 g/m2). The experiment was factorial based on a randomized complete block design with four replications. A one-month stop on irrigation occurred after the first five-month full irrigation regime to simulate drought stress conditions. The results showed tall fescue had higher leaf relative water content, lower relative electrolyte leakage and lower relative saturation deficit than that in perennial ryegrass after applying the drought stress. However, tall fescue had higher chlorophyll content than this factor in the ryegrass. Aquasorb and then Bentonite were able to improve the fresh weight and dry weight in roots and shoots under drought stress conditions compared to the control treatment. Using Aquasorb was associated with better physiological characters in the turfgrasses and higher water content in the soil. Overall, under drought stress conditions, planting tall fescue in a soil containing Aquazorb promised a better quality turfgrass for urban green spaces.
在土壤中使用超吸收剂生产节水型草坪草是一项挑战,尤其是在干旱环境中,因为它们与土壤和植物的相关行为尚不为人所知。研究了多年生黑麦草(Lolium perenne L.‘Chadegan’)和高羊茅(Festuca arundinacea)在不存在(对照处理)或存在四种超吸收剂的情况下的土壤水分含量和生理特性。超吸收剂为沸石(0和10%重量)、膨润土(0和6%重量)、Aquasorb(0和6 g/m2)和Boloorab(0和50 g/m2)。该实验是基于四个重复的随机完全区组设计的析因。在模拟干旱胁迫条件的前五个月全灌溉制度之后,停止灌溉一个月。结果表明,干旱胁迫后,高羊茅的叶片相对含水量高于多年生黑麦草,相对电解质渗漏率较低,相对饱和亏空率较低。然而,高羊茅的叶绿素含量高于该因子在黑麦草中的含量。与对照处理相比,在干旱胁迫条件下,Aquasorb和膨润土能够提高根和芽的鲜重和干重。使用Aquasorb与草坪草更好的生理特性和更高的土壤含水量有关。总的来说,在干旱胁迫条件下,在含有Aquazorb的土壤中种植高羊茅有望为城市绿地提供更优质的草坪草。
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引用次数: 0
Predicting the limits of the oasis effect as a cooling phenomenon in hot deserts 预测绿洲效应作为热沙漠中一种冷却现象的极限
Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.22059/JDESERT.2019.76384
A. Ahriz, S. Fezzai
The water, a built environment, and a palm grove are an impressive trilogy making up the formidable oasis, rendering it strong enough to survive the harsh desert climate. Furthermore, the interaction between them creates several natural and physical phenomena. This research discusses the oasis effect, one of the most significant phenomena in the oasis ecosystem; this effect has been treated as a cooling phenomenon in theories and mathematical models. Therefore, we aimed to examine the impact and limits of this phenomenon in regard to the microclimate of oases through digital simulation, using the SPUCAL_oec software (Simulation Platform of Urban Climate in Arid Lands _ Oases Effect Calculator).  Based on an innovative mathematical model, we developed SPUCAL_oec as an innovative vision for this green phenomenon, programmed to predict, calculate, and simulate the behavior and limits of the palm grove on the oasis microclimate. Finally, the results of SPUCAL_oec model showed that the oasis effect impacted the oasis microclimate owing to the existence of the palm grove. This effect could be as large as 6°C of temperature decrease and 12% increase in relative humidity. Furthermore, the SPUCAL software can aid designers and planners in making decisions regarding their design process.
水、建筑环境和棕榈树林组成了令人印象深刻的三部曲,构成了令人敬畏的绿洲,使它足够强大,能够在恶劣的沙漠气候中生存。此外,它们之间的相互作用创造了一些自然和物理现象。绿洲效应是绿洲生态系统中最重要的现象之一。在理论和数学模型中,这种效应被视为一种冷却现象。因此,我们旨在利用SPUCAL_oec软件(干旱地区城市气候模拟平台_绿洲效应计算器),通过数字模拟来研究这一现象对绿洲小气候的影响和局限性。基于创新的数学模型,我们开发了SPUCAL_oec,作为对这一绿色现象的创新愿景,通过编程来预测、计算和模拟绿洲小气候下棕榈林的行为和限制。SPUCAL_oec模型结果表明,绿洲效应对绿洲小气候的影响是由于棕榈林的存在。这种影响可能高达6°C的温度下降和12%的相对湿度增加。此外,SPUCAL软件可以帮助设计师和规划人员在设计过程中做出决策。
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引用次数: 0
racing environmental changes and paleoclimate using the micromorphology of soils and desert varnish in central Iran 利用伊朗中部土壤和沙漠清漆的微观形态研究环境变化和古气候
Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.22059/JDESERT.2019.76389
M. Sarmast, M. Farpoor, A. Jafari, I. E. Borujeni
Soil and desert varnish are powerful records capable of saving invaluable data regarding environmental factors and processes during their formation stages. The present research was carried out to identify the environmental variations and paleoclimate reconstruction in the central deserts of Iran using soil and varnish micromorphological characteristics. Mantled pediment, alluvial fan, and alluvial plain landforms were selected. A minimum of one representative pedon was described and sampled on each geomorphic surface, amounting to a total of eight pedons. Varnished rocks were further collected from all geomorphic surfaces and studied by petrography microscope. Clay (coatings and micro layers), calcite (nodules, coatings, quasicoatings, and infillings), anhydrite (nodules), halite (coatings) pedofeatures, clay coating-calcite infilling, and anhydrite nodule-clay coating compound pedofeatures were investigated in the thin sections of the soil. Lenticular, vermiform, and platy gypsum crystals were identified as nodules and interlocked plates. Desert varnishes (100-600 µm) were different from host rocks as far as color, texture, and formative components are concerned. According to micromorphological evidence, the area probably experienced two different climates. Coatings and infillings of clay in soils and rock crevices were developed in an environment with more available humidity. Evaporite minerals were formed in soils and clay coatings on rock surfaces in the following period with less available moisture. The study results showed that micromorphology could be a necessary and useful tool in pedology and paleopedology investigations.
土壤和沙漠清漆是强大的记录,能够在其形成阶段保存有关环境因素和过程的宝贵数据。本研究利用土壤和清漆的微观形态特征,确定了伊朗中部沙漠的环境变化和古气候重建。选择了地幔三角洲、冲积扇和冲积平原地貌。对每个地貌表面至少一个代表性的恋童癖进行了描述和采样,总计八个恋童癖。从所有地貌表面进一步收集了经过清漆处理的岩石,并用岩石学显微镜进行了研究。研究了土壤薄片中的粘土(涂层和微层)、方解石(结核、涂层、准涂层和填充物)、硬石膏(结核)、岩盐(涂层)土壤特征、粘土包裹方解石填充物和硬石膏-结核-粘土包裹复合土壤特征。透镜状、朱状和板状石膏晶体被鉴定为结节和互锁板。沙漠清漆(100-600µm)在颜色、质地和形成成分方面与寄主岩石不同。根据微观形态证据,该地区可能经历了两种不同的气候。土壤和岩石缝隙中粘土的涂层和填充是在有效湿度较高的环境中形成的。在接下来的一段时间里,蒸发岩矿物在土壤和岩石表面的粘土涂层中形成,有效水分较少。研究结果表明,微形态学在土壤学和古土壤学研究中是一种必要而有用的工具。
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引用次数: 2
Short-term effect of tillage methods, residue levels, and forward speeds on soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC): A case study on the eastern soils of Karun River, Khuzestan province, Iran. 耕作方法、残留物水平和前进速度对土壤水分特征曲线(SWCC)的短期影响:以伊朗胡齐斯坦省卡伦河东部土壤为例。
Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.22059/JDESERT.2019.76387
A. Shojaee, B. Khalilimoghaddam, F. Moradi
The current study was conducted to investigate the effect of tillage methods, residue rates, and forward speeds on the soil-water characteristic curve (SWCC) of Haploustepts soil over the course of one crop year (2014-2015). The treatments consisted of conventional mechanized tillage (CT: moldboard plough+disc) and reduced tillage (RT1: chisel peker+plough and RT2: combined tillage), different surface residues, including three levels of no residue, 40% residue, and 80% residue, and forward speeds at three levels: low (4 km/h), normal (7 km/h), and high (10 km/h). The experimental water retention data were fitted to uni-modal van Genuchten (termed uni-modal vG) and bi-modal Dexter (termed bi-modal Dex) models. No significant impact was observed on different physical parameters, except for parameter n. In the slope at the inflection point of SWCC, 11.8% and 8.9% reductions were observed in CT and RT1 treatments, respectively, compared to RT2. Based on the results,  measured under CT tended to be higher than that of other tillage treatments. Residual covers and higher forward speeds tended to increase both  and . Changes in PSD were more pronounced in larger (macro) and medium (meso) pore diameter classes. The highest value of structural void ratio as transmission pores was observed in RT2. This finding indicates that with respect to , , , and  values, the soil PSD descriptive system is a bi-peak distribution such as H-L; therefore, due to the hierarchical nature of soil structure, van Genuchten equation cannot appropriately describe multi-modal soils inherently.
本研究旨在调查一个作物年(2014-2015年)内耕作方法、残留率和前进速度对Haploustepts土壤水分特征曲线(SWCC)的影响。处理包括常规机械化耕作(CT:犁板犁+圆盘)和减少耕作(RT1:凿-peker+犁和RT2:组合耕作),不同的地表残留物,包括无残留物、40%残留物和80%残留物三个级别,以及三个级别的前进速度:低(4km/h)、正常(7km/h)和高(10km/h)。将实验保水数据拟合到单模态van Genuchten(称为单模态vG)和双模态Dexter(称为双模态Dex)模型中。除参数n外,未观察到对不同物理参数的显著影响。在SWCC拐点的斜率中,与RT2相比,CT和RT1治疗分别减少了11.8%和8.9%。根据结果,CT下测得的结果往往高于其他耕作处理。剩余的掩护和更高的前进速度往往会增加和。PSD的变化在较大(宏观)和中等(细观)孔径类别中更为明显。在RT2中观察到作为透射孔的结构空隙率的最高值。这一发现表明,关于、和值,土壤PSD描述系统是一个双峰分布,如H-L;因此,由于土壤结构的层次性,van-Genuchten方程不能很好地描述多模态土壤。
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引用次数: 1
The impact of land use/land cover changes on groundwater resources using remote sensing & GIS (Case study: Khan-Mirza Plain). 利用遥感和地理信息系统研究土地利用/土地覆盖变化对地下水资源的影响(案例研究:Khan Mirza平原)。
Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.22059/JDESERT.2019.74951
K. Karimian, A. Amini, H. Mohammadi
Hydrological status and water table fluctuations are directly related to land use and/or land cover (LULC) changes in each area. In this research, the impact of LULC changes on groundwater quantity and quality of Khan-Mirza Plain, in the northern Karun watersheds, was investigated. For this purpose, Landsat 5, 7 and 8 satellite images and ETM and OLI sensors were employed to prepare the LULC map of Khan-Mirza Plain for 2006 and 2016 using the artificial neural network algorithm. The neural network algorithm with the general accuracy of 90/29 was classified into six use classes (agriculture, rangeland, residential areas, rocky and bare lands, gardens and lowlands). Analysis of changes indicated that agricultural and residential uses were increased, respectively, by 62.5% and 3.5%. The biggest change was in conversion of the rocky and bare lands for the agricultural use. Another change was in the LULC of rocky and bare lands and rangelands: these have been converted into to the residential areas. A few piezometric wells in the plain were also used to investigate the lowering of the groundwater table during the 2006- 2016 period. The quality parameters investigated were calcium, sodium, magnesium, potassium, all soluble solids, electrical conductivity, sulfate, chlorine, bicarbonate, and water acidity (PH). Investigation of the time variation of the groundwater quality parameters further showed that potassium, water acidity, and bicarbonate followed an upward trend during the studied time. Most chemical parameters of water had the highest concentrations in the central plain area. The results, therefore, showed that increase of degradation and growth of human activities in the region had both caused changes in the LULC, subsequently intensifying the quantitative and qualitative loss of groundwater in the Khan-Mirza Plain. Therefore, the areas with irrigated agriculture, dry farming, and undeveloped agriculture have been increased. One of the main reasons for lowering of water table in 2016 was the excessive exploitation of groundwater as a result of the change in agriculture uses.
水文状况和地下水位波动与每个地区的土地利用和/或土地覆盖变化直接相关。在本研究中,调查了LULC变化对Karun流域北部Khan Mirza平原地下水数量和质量的影响。为此,利用陆地卫星5号、7号和8号卫星图像以及ETM和OLI传感器,使用人工神经网络算法编制了2006年和2016年Khan Mirza平原的LULC地图。神经网络算法的总体精度为90/29,分为六个用途类别(农业、牧场、住宅区、岩石和裸露土地、花园和低地)。变化分析表明,农业和住宅用途分别增加了62.5%和3.5%。变化最大的是岩石和裸露土地转为农业用途。另一个变化是岩石、裸露土地和牧场的土地使用权法:这些土地已被改建为住宅区。平原中的几口测压井也被用于调查2006-2016年期间地下水位的下降情况。研究的质量参数为钙、钠、镁、钾、所有可溶性固体、电导率、硫酸盐、氯、碳酸氢盐和水的酸度(PH)。对地下水水质参数随时间变化的调查进一步表明,在研究期间,钾、水酸度和碳酸氢盐呈上升趋势。中部平原地区的大多数水化学参数浓度最高。因此,研究结果表明,该地区人类活动的退化和增长加剧了LULC的变化,从而加剧了Khan-Mirza平原地下水的数量和质量损失。因此,灌溉农业、旱地农业和未开发农业的面积增加了。2016年地下水位下降的主要原因之一是农业用途的变化导致地下水的过度开采。
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引用次数: 0
Climatic elements, discharge and groundwater trends over time using Mann-Kendall Test in the Mighan Sub-basin of Arak 阿拉克Mighan次盆地气候要素、流量和地下水随时间变化趋势的Mann-Kendall试验
Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.22059/JDESERT.2019.76358
T. Ensafimoghaddam
This study was an analytical research across 84 meteorological stations, performed in the Mighan sub-basin over a fifty-year study period (1961–2011).This research seeks to answer the basic question of how declining streamflow, increasing temperatures, and fluctuation in precipitation have impacted water resource allocation in the Mighan sub-basin. The research method is analytical based on Mann-Kendall method. Analysis of independent flow measures (discharge and groundwater levels) using the Mann-Kendall trend test suggests evidence for climate change trends for many of the 84 stations. The results highlighted a mix of positive (increasing) and negative (decreasing) trends (monthly, seasonal, and annual) in the Mighan sub-basin. The results showed that during the 10-year period (1961-70), the minimum temperature occurrence in the first decade at -33.5 ° C (1973) and the maximum temperature event in the same decade at 57 ° C (1974) made this decade one of the most volatile decades in a fifty year period. Despite the inter-annual climatic fluctuations, results revealed that the Mighan Sub-basin has encountered many severe fluctuations of precipitation and average annual discharge during the five decades.
本研究是一项为期50年(1961-2011)的分析研究,涵盖了migan子盆地84个气象站。本研究旨在回答流量下降、温度升高和降水波动如何影响米根亚流域水资源配置的基本问题。研究方法是基于Mann-Kendall分析法。使用Mann-Kendall趋势测试对独立流量测量(流量和地下水位)进行分析,为84个站点中的许多站点提供了气候变化趋势的证据。结果表明,在migan次盆地中,正(增加)和负(减少)趋势(月度、季节性和年度)混合在一起。结果表明:1961—1970年,前10年的最低气温为-33.5℃(1973年),最高气温为57℃(1974年),是50 a周期内气温变化最剧烈的10年。尽管存在年际气候波动,但结果表明,在50 a期间,米根子流域的降水量和年平均流量经历了多次剧烈波动。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing Direction of desertification changes in an Arid Region (A Case study: Semnan County, Iran) 评估干旱地区荒漠化变化的方向(案例研究:伊朗塞姆南县)
Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.22059/JDESERT.2019.76362
S. Bazgeer, H. Fakhravar, A. D. Astane, A. Shamsipour
Desertification is a serious ecological, environmental, and socio-economic threat to the world, and there is an urgent need to develop rational methods for its evaluation at different spatio-temporal scales. This study aimed to address the main directions of desertification changes in Semnan County, Iran. Monthly precipitation was used to calculate a 12-month SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) obtained by LandsatThematicMapper (TM) sensor of April month were used for the three years, viz., 1987, 1998, and 2011. Five major categories were identified at level-I and they were subdivided into 11 categories including, 1. Residential areas, 2. Vegetation, 3. Bare and rocky areas, 4. Salt lands and 5. Sand areas. The results indicated that the reduction of the NDVI values was consistent with the changes in land use/land cover. This progress was taken place in some areas with the development of bare soil to salt land, and in some areas with the expansion of sand land, particularly from 1987 to 1998. The results indicated that the salt lands increased 348.24 and 721.57 square kilometers from 1987 to 1998 and from 1998 to 2011, respectively. The results revealed that desertification occurred at a rapid rate, especially towards the east and southeast directions in the study area. That was, towards the Dasht-e-Kavir and Damghan City. The results showed that besides using NDVI and SPI for drought monitoring, the meteorological variables such as temperature, sunshine hours and evaporation could improve the accuracy of interpretation of the results.
荒漠化是对世界的严重生态、环境和社会经济威胁,迫切需要制定合理的方法,在不同的时空尺度上对其进行评估。本研究旨在探讨伊朗塞姆南县荒漠化变化的主要方向。使用月降水量计算12个月的SPI(标准化降水指数),并使用LandsatThematicMapper(TM)传感器获得的4月份的标准化差异植被指数(NDVI)来计算这三年,即1987年、1998年和2011年。一级确定了五个主要类别,并将其细分为11个类别,其中包括1个。住宅区,2。植被,3。裸露和岩石区域,4。盐碱地和5。沙地。结果表明,NDVI值的降低与土地利用/土地覆盖的变化一致。这一进展发生在一些地区,从裸土发展到盐碱地,以及一些地区,特别是从1987年到1998年,随着沙地的扩大。结果表明,从1987年到1998年和从1998年到2011年,盐土面积分别增加了348.24和721.57平方公里。结果表明,荒漠化的发生速度很快,特别是在研究区的东部和东南方向。那是朝着达什特恩卡维尔和达姆汉城。结果表明,除了使用NDVI和SPI进行干旱监测外,温度、日照时数和蒸发量等气象变量也可以提高结果的解释精度。
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引用次数: 1
Modeling Land Use Change Process by Integrating the MLP Neural Network Model in the Central Desert Regions of Iran 基于MLP神经网络模型的伊朗中部沙漠地区土地利用变化过程模拟
Pub Date : 2019-12-01 DOI: 10.22059/JDESERT.2019.76364
H. Fathizad, H. Ardakani, R. T. Mehrjardi, Hamid Sodaiezadeh
To understand and manage the natural and human-made ecosystems and develop long-term planning, it is necessary to model Land Use Change (LUC) and predict future changes. Therefore, we used Landsat satellite imagery, Multilayer Perceptron neural network (MLP) and Markov Chain model (MCA) to monitor the regional changes over 30 years in the central arid regions of Iran. In the present research, the stratified maps derived from the object-oriented algorithm were used to detect and map the changes of land use classes from 1986 to 2016. Furthermore, the land use in 2030 was predicted using Land use Change Modeler (LCM). Slop, contour elevation lines, distance from river, road, afforestation, agricultural lands/gardens, barren lands, poor rangelands, residential lands, rocky land, and sand dunes were considered as factors influencing the changes in the ANN. The Cramer's V coefficient was employed to select appropriate parameters with the highest significant correlation. Our results showed that the sub-models performed well (75-85%). Besides, the highest and lowest accuracy of sub-models were related to the distance from barren lands and distance from residential areas (75.23 and 85.91%, respectively). The results of land use change monitoring from 2016 to 2030 revealed that land use such as forest, residential lands, gardens, and sand dunes would be increased by about 0.11, 1.53, 2.36 and 0.56 %, respectively, by 2030 compared to 2016. On the other, the area of barren land and poor rangeland would be reduced by 2.88 and 1.68 %, respectively. Our results can be used in land change evaluations, environmental studies, and integrated planning and management regarding appropriate and logical use of natural resources and reducing resource degradation.
为了了解和管理自然和人为生态系统并制定长期规划,有必要对土地利用变化进行建模并预测未来的变化。因此,我们使用陆地卫星图像、多层感知器神经网络(MLP)和马尔可夫链模型(MCA)来监测伊朗中部干旱地区30年来的区域变化。在本研究中,使用基于面向对象算法的分层地图来检测和绘制1986年至2016年土地利用类别的变化。此外,使用土地利用变化建模器(LCM)对2030年的土地利用进行了预测。坡度、等高线高程线、距河流、道路、植树造林、农田/花园、荒地、不良牧场、住宅用地、岩石地和沙丘被认为是影响ANN变化的因素。采用Cramer’s V系数选择具有最高显著相关性的适当参数。我们的结果表明,子模型表现良好(75-85%)。此外,子模型的最高和最低精度与距荒地的距离和距居民区的距离有关(分别为75.23%和85.91%)。2016年至2030年的土地利用变化监测结果显示,到2030年,森林、住宅用地、花园和沙丘等土地利用将分别比2016年增加约0.11%、1.53%、2.36%和0.56%。另一方面,贫瘠土地和贫瘠牧场的面积将分别减少2.88%和1.68%。我们的研究结果可用于土地变化评估、环境研究以及关于合理利用自然资源和减少资源退化的综合规划和管理。
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