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Transformation of Sociology: Necessity and Perspectives 社会学的转型:必要性与展望
Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-01
V. Bakirov
The article analyzes the relevance, factors and prospects of the transformation of modern sociological science. It is noted that digital technologies significantly change the fundamental foundations of social interaction, most everyday social practices, structures and conflicts. This poses a number of serious challenges to sociology as a science. It is emphasized that it is time to think deeply not only about the problem of transformation of what sociology studies, but also about the transformation of sociology itself as a specific intellectual practice. Attention is focused on the need for sociological analysis and interpretation of large-scale and long-term social processes, changes in the traditional way of sociology's participation in the formation of state social policy and the implementation of social reforms. Endogenous factors hindering the leadership of sociological science in the modern public intellectual discourse are identified, namely: fragmentation of sociology, its division into a huge number of directions, particular, local thematizations; lack of research attention of sociologists to the fundamental problems of social life; modern sociology does not form an agenda for public intellectual discourse and scientific research, does not define the problematic field of research and interpretation both at the microsocial level and at the level of societal and global phenomena; it is not socially engaged, does not engage in dialogic interaction with various groups of the public, does not help them to realize their values, interests and problems, to fight for their solution; sociologists do not show activity in related research areas (for example, such as social communications, public relations, advertising, marketing, political consulting, conflict studies), do not use for this a rich arsenal of sociological theoretical concepts, quantitative and qualitative methods; despite the mediatization of social life, sociology is not sufficiently media-based, it is extremely weakly present in the media space. A conclusion is formulated about the need to transform sociological thinking and sociological imagination, the need for serious changes in the educational programs of professional training of students, in particular their practical component, the search for new formats of professional communication.
本文分析了现代社会科学转型的相关性、因素和前景。值得注意的是,数字技术显著改变了社会互动的基本基础,大多数日常社会实践,结构和冲突。这给作为一门科学的社会学带来了许多严峻的挑战。强调现在不仅要深入思考社会学研究的转型问题,而且要深入思考社会学作为一种具体的思想实践的转型问题。关注的重点是需要对大规模和长期的社会过程进行社会学分析和解释,改变传统的社会学参与国家社会政策的形成和社会改革的实施方式。指出了阻碍社会学科学在现代公共知识话语中发挥领导作用的内生因素,即:社会学的碎片化,它分裂为大量的方向,特别是局部的主题化;社会学家对社会生活的基本问题缺乏研究关注;现代社会学没有形成公共知识话语和科学研究的议程,没有在微观社会层面和社会和全球现象层面定义有问题的研究和解释领域;它不参与社会活动,不与公众的各个群体进行对话互动,不帮助他们实现自己的价值观、利益和问题,不帮助他们为解决问题而奋斗;社会学家没有在相关的研究领域(例如,社会传播、公共关系、广告、市场营销、政治咨询、冲突研究)表现出活动,没有为此使用丰富的社会学理论概念、定量和定性方法;尽管社会生活媒介化,但社会学并没有充分立足于媒介,它在媒介空间中的存在是极其微弱的。结论是需要转变社会学的思维和社会学的想象,需要对学生的专业培训的教育计划进行重大的改革,特别是他们的实践部分,需要寻找新的专业交流形式。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Development of Higher Education: Expert Opinion 新冠肺炎疫情对高等教育发展的影响——专家意见
Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-06
O. Kyslova, Marko Aharkov
The article examines the opinion of international experts on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the transformation of the higher education sector. Analyzed the data presented in publications that were posted on the international news resource University World News from 1st of March to 15th of October 2020 in the "coronavirus crises" section. It is noted that the most discussed topic is the strategy for the future development of higher education (26% of the analyzed texts were devoted to strategic issues). Attention is focused on the fact that the pandemic revealed that the concept of direct learning is not adapted to crisis situations like the COVID-19 pandemic (despite its undoubted advantages) when teachers and students do not have the opportunity to communicate directly in the classroom. It is emphasized that, despite the variability of experts' opinions on the future for the development of higher education in a global context there are significantly fewer negative assessments than could be expected: 33% of experts positively assess the changes in higher education initiated by the pandemic, suggest considering the pandemic crisis as a catalyst that accelerates solving existing problems, in particular the need to form a new vision of the strategic development of the education sector taking into account the future advantages of distance and online forms of education. The topic of financing turned out to be the most painful. Most experts negatively assess the prospects associated with a significant decrease in public funding without which it is difficult for universities to survive not only in the crisis conditions of the pandemic but also in the post-covid future. Insufficient funding has led to the reduction amount of teachers which will subsequently harm the entire system of higher education because it is the teachers who must fill the courses built in the format of augmented learning with content, develop an appropriate pedagogical design and accompany students in the educational process.
本文探讨了国际专家对2019冠状病毒病大流行对高等教育部门转型影响的看法。分析了2020年3月1日至10月15日在国际新闻资源《大学世界新闻》“冠状病毒危机”部分发布的出版物中提供的数据。值得注意的是,讨论最多的话题是高等教育未来发展的战略(26%的分析文本致力于战略问题)。人们关注的是,大流行表明,在教师和学生没有机会在课堂上直接沟通的情况下,直接学习的概念并不适合像COVID-19大流行这样的危机情况(尽管它无疑具有优势)。要强调的是,尽管专家们对全球范围内高等教育未来发展的意见各不相同,但负面评价比预期的要少得多:33%的专家积极评价大流行引发的高等教育变革,建议将大流行危机视为加速解决现有问题的催化剂,特别是需要对教育部门的战略发展形成新的愿景,同时考虑到远程和在线教育形式的未来优势。融资是最让人痛苦的话题。大多数专家对公共资金大幅减少的前景持否定态度,没有公共资金,大学不仅难以在大流行的危机条件下生存,而且难以在新冠疫情后的未来生存。资金不足导致教师数量减少,这将随后损害整个高等教育系统,因为教师必须用内容填补以增强学习形式建立的课程,制定适当的教学设计,并在教育过程中陪伴学生。
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引用次数: 0
Corruption in Ukraine and the World as a Trigger for the Weakening of the State 乌克兰和世界的腐败是削弱国家的导火索
Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-02
Liudmyla Herasina, Viktoriia Pohribna
The article analyzes corruption as an extra-legal phenomenon that destroys the morality and values of society, threatens democracy and human rights, deforms the functions of state power, discrediting it both within the country and in the international arena. It is noted that the formation of dysfunctions in the sphere of public administration is not the main socio-political danger of corruption.The threat of "corrosion" and gradual destruction of social ties in the system of state regulation, public control and the functioning of social institutions is creating. The sociological and legal interpretation of corruption made it possible to study it as a trigger that weakens statehood, to reveal the social mechanism of the influence of corruption ties on state institutions, to assess the political, economic, legal, socio-structural and psychological factors of its spread. The authors characterize foreign and domestic “models” of corruption and ways of counteracting it from the standpoint of the ontological approach; she also has identified social markers that reflect its specificity in Ukraine; a real assessment of the degree of effectiveness of anti-corruption actions in Ukraine are presented; the expediency of analyzing corruption in the international aspect, especially the mechanisms, forms and methods of Ukrainian corruption spreading in the world corruption services and the penetration of transnational corruption into the Ukrainian political and economic space; it is also revealed the effect of the social mechanism of corruption in the structure of the state, as a result of which the process of state regulation loses its morality and social value. It is shown that the stable, actively "mutating", adaptive to the majority of social changes, the nature of corruption in Ukraine does not only forms and reproduces the tolerant attitude of government and a significant part of the public, but it also actively inhibits democratic transformations and deforms the public consciousness of Ukrainians. It is emphasized that "salus populi" is the most pragmatic option among the systemic models of fighting corruption (totalitarian, authoritarian, liberal).
这篇文章分析了腐败是一种法外现象,它破坏了社会的道德和价值观,威胁到民主和人权,扭曲了国家权力的功能,使其在国内和国际舞台上都失去了信誉。委员会指出,在公共行政领域形成功能失调并不是腐败的主要社会政治危险。国家监管、公共控制和社会机构运作系统中的社会关系正面临“腐蚀”和逐渐破坏的威胁。通过对腐败的社会学和法学解释,可以将其作为削弱国家地位的诱因进行研究,揭示腐败关系对国家机构影响的社会机制,评估腐败蔓延的政治、经济、法律、社会结构和心理因素。作者从本体论的角度描述了国内外腐败的“模式”和对抗腐败的方法;她还发现了反映乌克兰特殊性的社会标志;提出了对乌克兰反腐败行动有效性程度的真实评估;在国际层面分析腐败的权宜之计,特别是乌克兰腐败在世界腐败服务中蔓延的机制、形式和方法以及跨国腐败对乌克兰政治和经济空间的渗透;同时也揭示了腐败的社会机制对国家结构的影响,从而导致国家规制过程丧失其道德性和社会价值。研究表明,稳定的、主动“变异”的、适应大多数社会变革的乌克兰腐败性质不仅形成和再现了政府和相当一部分公众的宽容态度,而且还积极抑制了乌克兰人的民主转型,扭曲了乌克兰人的公共意识。文章强调,在打击腐败的系统模式(极权主义、威权主义、自由主义)中,“向人民致敬”是最务实的选择。
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引用次数: 0
(Dis)trust, (un)sefety and Cohesion: Discourses of Vaccinations in Ukraine (不信任),(不)安全和凝聚力:乌克兰疫苗接种的话语
Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-05
Olga Filippova, O. Deineko
The article is devoted to the analysis of vaccination discourses as ways of constructing and transforming social reality. Vaccination is considered, firstly, as a direction of state policy in the social and medical sphere; secondly, as a basis for realizing a legitimizing identity or constructing a resistance identity. Based on M. Castells’ concept of identity and the theory of discourse by E. Laclos and C. Mouffe, two discourses are distinguished that coexist in an antagonistic struggle – "for" (support) and "against" (resistance) to vaccination. The state is the main subject of the formation of the discourse for vaccination, constructing a legitimizing identity. The nodal points of this discourse are analyzed in the sphere of the regulatory law, particularly, in the Roadmap for COVID-19 Vaccines. This discourse is constructed on the nodal points of inclusion (being vaccinated means "being included" and having access to certain benefits), trust (in health care system and the vaccines), safety (both on the individual and national levels). The discourse "against" vaccination, which is the basis for the formation of the resistance identity, is characterized by the absence of the main subject of its construction. The channels of its objectification through which the media act becomes more significant than the status of the discourse constructing subjects. The nodal points of this discourse are analyzed in the context of new media – Ukrainian-language publications of the online media in Ukraine – as a space of the "culture of freedom" that creates the basis for the transition from mass communications to mass self-communications. Such discourse is constructed on interconnected nodal points of distrust and unsafety (the formation of scientific and medical doubts, discrediting the quality of vaccines, direct or indirect articulation of the sign of death). This study has recorded the exceptional significance of distrust as a point of catalyzing other nodal points and signs. The construction of discourses of support and resistance to vaccination occurs according to different algorithms: if, in the field of discourse struggle, the articulation of the point of distrust is sufficient for the dominance of the discourse of resistance, then for the discourse of support for vaccination it is necessary to construct various signs and nodal points to reproduce the positions of its dominance. It is obviously that public policy should provide for the meaningful integration of the nodal points of security and trust, as well as the construction of a new nodal point of rallying, which should be articulated not only in the legal framework, but also in the plurality of discourse fields that form the discourse of support for vaccination (speech officials, communications from the responsible authorities and generally within the vaccination information campaign).
本文致力于分析疫苗接种话语作为构建和改造社会现实的方式。首先,疫苗接种被视为社会和医疗领域的国家政策方向;第二,作为实现合法化身份或建构反抗身份的基础。根据卡斯特的身份概念和拉克洛斯和墨菲的话语理论,区分了两种对立斗争中共存的话语——“支持”(支持)和“反对”(抵制)疫苗接种。国家是疫苗话语形成的主体,建构了合法化的身份认同。在监管法律领域,特别是在COVID-19疫苗路线图中,对这一论述的节点进行了分析。这一论述是建立在包容性(接种疫苗意味着“被纳入”并获得某些利益)、信任(在卫生保健系统和疫苗方面)、安全(在个人和国家层面)等节点上的。作为抵抗认同形成基础的“反对”疫苗接种话语,其特征是建构主体的缺失。媒介行为的对象化渠道比话语建构主体的地位更为重要。本文在新媒体的背景下分析了这一论述的节点——乌克兰网络媒体的乌克兰语出版物——作为“自由文化”的空间,为大众传播向大众自我传播的过渡创造了基础。这种话语是建立在不信任和不安全的相互关联的节点上的(形成科学和医学上的怀疑,对疫苗质量的怀疑,直接或间接地表达死亡的迹象)。这项研究记录了不信任作为催化其他节点和标志的一个点的特殊意义。对疫苗接种的支持和抵制话语的构建是根据不同的算法进行的:如果在话语斗争领域,不信任点的表达足以使抵制话语占据主导地位,那么对于支持疫苗接种的话语,就有必要构建各种符号和节点来再现其主导地位。显然,公共政策应该为安全和信任的节点点提供有意义的整合,以及建立一个新的集会节点,这不仅应该在法律框架中加以阐明,而且应该在形成支持接种疫苗话语的多个话语领域中加以阐明(讲话官员,负责当局的通信以及一般在疫苗接种信息运动中)。
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引用次数: 0
Volunteering Under Institutional and Structural Change: Genesis and Agent Influences 制度与结构变迁下的志愿服务:起源与动因影响
Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-03
Lubov Bevzenko, O. Zlobina
The genesis of volunteering as a source of social agency in conditions of social tension and crisis situations shifts research attention from considering volunteering as an activity that supports the work of official structures, to considering it as a self-sufficient activity in solving urgent problems facing society in situations of social instability and institutional instability. As a research perspective, the complexity paradigm is chosen, which offers a view of social processes through the prism of nonlinear system dynamics. The basis of the conceptual framework of the study - the allocation of the two mechanisms of social change – organizational and self-organizational. The processes of social self-organization reveal themselves in the crisis moments of the life of society through the activities of powerful volunteer communities, which become agents of change due to their emergence. The characteristics of such a volunteer community are their attractiveness, procedurality and specific hierarchy, which has a leadership basis. The genesis of the community of volunteers is viewed in the context of socio-structural changes. Using the example of the interaction of volunteers with the communities of internally displaced persons and combatants, it is shown that the communities of donors and recipients are interconnected in their own development. The features of the dynamics of volunteering agency in crisis conditions are determined, which depend on the ratio of self-organizing and organizational mechanisms at different stages of crisis situations. Since the beginning of the crisis, self-organizing structures have been active independent agents, however, as the institutional component strengthens, the initiative to restore public order is gradually shifting to organizational structures and the role of agency in self-organizing structures decreases. A decrease in the energy potential of a volunteering agency is associated with internal restructuring and adaptation of communities that arose at the time of the crisis and were the main recipients of assistance. However, this potential can recover quickly against the background of new challenges (eg pandemic) and unwillingness to respond to the situation by the organizational structures.
志愿服务作为社会紧张和危机情况下的社会代理来源的起源,使研究的注意力从将志愿服务视为支持官方结构工作的活动,转向将其视为在社会不稳定和制度不稳定的情况下解决社会面临的紧迫问题的自给自足的活动。本文选择复杂性范式作为研究视角,通过非线性系统动力学的棱镜来看待社会过程。本研究的概念框架的基础——社会变革的两种机制——组织和自组织的分配。社会自我组织的过程通过强大的志愿者社区的活动在社会生活的危机时刻显露出来,这些志愿者社区因其出现而成为变革的推动者。这种志愿者社区的特点是其吸引力、程序性和特定的等级制度,这具有领导基础。志愿者社区的起源是在社会结构变化的背景下看待的。以志愿人员与国内流离失所者和战斗人员社区相互作用的例子表明,捐助者和受援者社区在其自身发展方面是相互联系的。危机情境下志愿服务机构的动态特征取决于危机情境不同阶段自组织机制与组织机制的比例。自危机开始以来,自组织结构一直是积极的独立行动者,但是,随着体制组成部分的加强,恢复公共秩序的主动行动逐渐转向组织结构,机构在自组织结构中的作用减弱。志愿服务机构能量潜力的减少与危机时期出现的社区的内部改组和适应有关,这些社区是主要的援助接受者。然而,在面临新挑战(例如大流行病)和组织结构不愿对局势作出反应的背景下,这种潜力可以迅速恢复。
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引用次数: 0
The Essence and Features of Democracy in the Interpretation of A. de Tocqueille 托克维尔诠释中的民主的本质与特征
Pub Date : 2021-12-29 DOI: 10.26565/2077-5105-2021-26-04
V. Nikolenko
The article analyzes the backbone markers of democracy identified by A. Tocqueville against the background of a comparison of aristocratic systems and effective democracy. The essential signs of democratic transformations are presented: a gradual but noticeable increase in the material well-being of an average citizen; effective central government with effective local self-government and significant influence on their decisions of universal human values; public opinion as one of the full-fledged branches of power; a quantitatively limited apparatus of officials/civil servants, as accessible as possible for communication with the population; lack of connection between an ascending political career and personal enrichment; subordination of citizens not to an official, but to the current legislation; education of patriotism by involving as many citizens as possible in the government of the country; mass will expressing with the help of political rights and freedoms. It is noted that such signs, according to A. Tocqueville, include the absence of political censorship, the presence of freedom of speech; the unimportance of the political struggle against the background of solving, first of all, the problems of the country's material life support; public activity; enlightenment of the people; respect for production work; intensive communication within the country with the help of a developed social infrastructure; constant formation of new goals of social development, as well as a permanent desire for their implementation; psychological youth of the average person; optimistic outlook on the future; dynamism of professional opinion regarding the solution of social problems; the rule of law, the equality of all citizens before the law; opportunities for citizens, thanks to the results of their own work, to compete for social success on an equal footing. It is emphasized that the “enemies” of democracy, according to A. Tocqueville, are unlimited, uncontrolled power; desire for its usurpation; use of excessive force; despotism, which is especially harmful to the production of material wealth; political absenteeism; social apathy; inaction; destructive traditionalism; the authority of the individual, associated only with hereditary status and wealth. The attention is focused on one of the paradoxes of A. Tocqueville, in which he saw the advantage of the democratic process. According to the philosopher, among the ruled there are many outstanding people who, as a result of the processes of electoral democracy, for some reason did not find themselves in the circle of the elite. It is emphasized that A. Tocqueville explained this by a wide range of available opportunities for personal self-realization outside of a political career. At the same time, the coming to power of an average person, according to the thinker, contributes to the growth of mass education, social activity, social responsibility, and rational thinking on a societal scale. All this forms a hug
本文以贵族制度与有效民主的比较为背景,分析托克维尔所确定的民主的骨干标志。民主转型的基本迹象呈现出来:普通公民的物质福利逐步但显著地增加;有效的中央政府和有效的地方自治政府,并对其普遍人类价值观的决策产生重大影响;公众舆论作为权力的一个成熟的分支;数量有限的官员/公务员机构,尽可能方便与民众沟通;政治生涯的上升与个人致富之间缺乏联系;公民不服从官员,而服从现行立法;通过让尽可能多的公民参与到国家的政府中来教育爱国主义;群众将在政治权利和自由的帮助下表达。值得注意的是,根据托克维尔(A. Tocqueville)的说法,这些迹象包括没有政治审查、有言论自由;首先,在解决国家物质生活保障问题的背景下,政治斗争不重要;公共活动;人民的启蒙;尊重生产工作;借助发达的社会基础设施,加强国内交流;不断形成新的社会发展目标,以及实现这些目标的持久愿望;心理青年的一般人;对未来持乐观态度;解决社会问题的专业意见的动态性法治,所有公民在法律面前一律平等;公民由于自己的工作成果,有机会在平等的基础上为社会成功而竞争。托克维尔强调,民主的“敌人”是不受限制、不受控制的权力;篡夺它的欲望;过度使用武力;专制,这对物质财富的生产尤其有害;政治旷工;社会的冷漠;不作为;破坏性的传统主义;个人的权威,只与世袭的地位和财富有关。人们的注意力集中在托克维尔(A. Tocqueville)的一个悖论上,他在其中看到了民主进程的优势。根据哲学家的观点,在被统治者中有许多杰出的人,由于选举民主的过程,由于某种原因,他们没有发现自己在精英的圈子里。需要强调的是,托克维尔通过在政治生涯之外提供广泛的个人自我实现机会来解释这一点。与此同时,根据这位思想家的观点,普通人掌握权力有助于大众教育、社会活动、社会责任和社会范围内理性思维的发展。所有这些都形成了积极的社会政治和经济变革的巨大公众能量。托克维尔(A. Tocqueville)对政治自由和经济繁荣的相互影响给予了特别关注。
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引用次数: 0
Constructing Dual-Porosity Models from High-Resolution Discrete-Fracture Models Using Deep Neural Networks 利用深度神经网络从高分辨率离散裂缝模型构建双重孔隙度模型
Pub Date : 2021-10-19 DOI: 10.2118/203901-ms
Xupeng He, R. Santoso, M. AlSinan, H. Kwak, H. Hoteit
Detailed geological description of fractured reservoirs is typically characterized by the discrete-fracture model (DFM), in which the rock matrix and fractures are explicitly represented in the form of unstructured grids. Its high computation cost makes it infeasible for field-scale applications. Traditional flow-based and static-based methods used to upscale detailed geological DFM to reservoir simulation model suffer from, to some extent, high computation cost and low accuracy, respectively. In this paper, we present a novel deep learning-based upscaling method as an alternative to traditional methods. This work aims to build an image-to-value model based on convolutional neural network to model the nonlinear mapping between the high-resolution image of detailed DFM as input and the upscaled reservoir simulation model as output. The reservoir simulation model (herein refers to the dual-porosity model) includes the predicted fracture-fracture transmissibility linking two adjacent grid blocks and fracture-matrix transmissibility within each coarse block. The proposed upscaling workflow comprises the train-validation samples generation, convolutional neural network training-validating process, and model evaluation. We apply a two-point flux approximation (TPFA) scheme based on embedded discrete-fracture model (EDFM) to generate the datasets. We perform trial-error analysis on the coupling training-validating process to update the ratio of train-validation samples, optimize the learning rate and the network architecture. This process is applied until the trained model obtains an accuracy above 90 % for both train-validation samples. We then demonstrate its performance with the two-phase reference solutions obtained from the fine model in terms of water saturation profile and oil recovery versus PVI. Results show that the DL-based approach provides a good match with the reference solutions for both water saturation distribution and oil recovery curve. This work manifests the value of the DL-based method for the upscaling of detailed DFM to the dual-porosity model and can be extended to construct generalized dual-porosity, dual-permeability models or include more complex physics, such as capillary and gravity effects.
裂缝性储层的详细地质描述通常以离散裂缝模型(DFM)为特征,其中岩石基质和裂缝以非结构化网格的形式明确表示。它的高计算成本使其不适合现场规模的应用。传统的基于流动的精细地质DFM方法和基于静态的精细地质DFM方法分别存在计算成本高和精度低的问题。在本文中,我们提出了一种新的基于深度学习的升级方法,作为传统方法的替代方法。本文旨在建立基于卷积神经网络的图像-值模型,对详细DFM的高分辨率图像作为输入与升级后的油藏模拟模型作为输出之间的非线性映射进行建模。储层模拟模型(这里指双孔隙度模型)包括连接相邻两个网格块的预测裂缝-裂缝导通率和每个粗块内裂缝-基质导通率。提出的升级工作流程包括训练验证样本生成、卷积神经网络训练验证过程和模型评估。我们采用基于嵌入式离散断裂模型(EDFM)的两点通量近似(TPFA)方案来生成数据集。我们对耦合训练-验证过程进行试错分析,以更新训练-验证样本的比例,优化学习率和网络结构。这个过程一直进行,直到训练模型对两个训练验证样本的准确率都达到90%以上。然后,我们通过从精细模型中获得的两相参考溶液,在含水饱和度剖面和采收率与PVI方面验证了其性能。结果表明,该方法在含水饱和度分布和采收率曲线上均与参考解吻合较好。这项工作体现了基于dl的方法将详细DFM升级为双孔隙度模型的价值,并且可以扩展到构建广义的双孔隙度、双渗透率模型或包括更复杂的物理现象,如毛细和重力效应。
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引用次数: 7
Grid Quality Measures for PEBI Grids PEBI网格的网格质量测量
Pub Date : 2021-10-19 DOI: 10.2118/203961-ms
I. Mishev, R. Rin
Combining the Perpendicular Bisector (PEBI) grids with the Two Point Flux Approximation (TPFA) scheme demonstrates a potential to accurately model on unstructured grids, conforming to the geological and engineering features of real grids. However, with the increased complexity and resolution of the grids, the PEBI conditions will inevitably be violated in some cells and the approximation properties will be compromised. The objective is to develop accurate and practical grid quality measures that quantify such errors. We critically evaluated the existing grid quality measures and found them lacking predictive power in several areas. The available k-orthogonality measures predict error for flow along the strata, although TPFA provides an accurate approximation. The false-positive results are not only misleading but can overwhelm further analysis. We developed the so-called "truncation error" grid measure which is probably the most accurate measure for flow through a plane face and accurately measures the error along the strata. We also quantified the error due to the face curvature. Curved faces are bound to exist in any real grid. The impact of the quality of the 2-D Delaunay triangulation on TPFA approximation properties is usually not taken into account. We investigate the impact of the size of the smallest angles that can cause considerable increase of the condition number of the matrix and an eventual loss of accuracy, demonstrated with simple examples. Based on the analysis, we provide recommendations. We also show how the size of the largest angles impacts the approximation quality of TPFA. Furthermore, we discuss the impact of the change of the permeability on the TPFA approximation. Finally, we present simple tools that reservoir engineers can use to incorporate the above-mentioned grid quality measures into a workflow. The grid quality measures discussed up to now are static. We also sketch the further extension to dynamic measures, that is, how the static measures can be used to detect change in the flow behavior, potentially leading to increased error. We investigate a comprehensive set of methods, several of them new, to measure the static grid quality of TPFA on PEBI grids and possible extension to dynamic measures. All measures can be easily implemented in production reservoir simulators and examined using the suggested tools in a workflow.
将垂直平分线(PEBI)网格与两点通量近似(TPFA)方案相结合,证明了在非结构化网格上精确建模的潜力,符合实际网格的地质和工程特征。然而,随着网格的复杂性和分辨率的增加,在某些单元中不可避免地会违反PEBI条件,从而降低近似性能。目标是开发准确和实用的网格质量度量来量化这些错误。我们批判性地评估了现有的电网质量措施,发现它们在几个领域缺乏预测能力。尽管TPFA提供了一个精确的近似值,但现有的k正交性测量预测了沿地层流动的误差。假阳性结果不仅具有误导性,而且会影响进一步的分析。我们开发了所谓的“截断误差”网格测量,这可能是最准确的测量流过平面的流量,并准确地测量沿地层的误差。我们还量化了由于面部曲率引起的误差。曲面必然存在于任何真实的网格中。二维Delaunay三角剖分的质量对TPFA近似性质的影响通常不被考虑。我们研究了最小角度大小的影响,它可以导致矩阵条件数的相当大的增加和最终的精度损失,并通过简单的例子进行了证明。在分析的基础上,提出建议。我们还展示了最大角度的大小如何影响TPFA的近似质量。此外,我们还讨论了磁导率变化对TPFA近似的影响。最后,我们提供了一些简单的工具,油藏工程师可以使用这些工具将上述网格质量度量纳入工作流程。目前讨论的网格质量度量都是静态的。我们还概述了对动态测量的进一步扩展,即如何使用静态测量来检测流行为的变化,这可能会导致误差的增加。我们研究了一套全面的方法,其中一些是新的,以测量PEBI网格上TPFA的静态网格质量,并可能扩展到动态测量。所有措施都可以很容易地在生产油藏模拟器中实施,并在工作流程中使用建议的工具进行检查。
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引用次数: 0
Strategies to Enhance the Performance of Gaussian Mixture Model Fitting for Uncertainty Quantification by Conditioning to Production Data 通过对生产数据的调节来提高高斯混合模型不确定性量化拟合性能的策略
Pub Date : 2021-10-19 DOI: 10.2118/204008-ms
G. Gao, J. Vink, F. Saaf, T. Wells
When formulating history matching within the Bayesian framework, we may quantify the uncertainty of model parameters and production forecasts using conditional realizations sampled from the posterior probability density function (PDF). It is quite challenging to sample such a posterior PDF. Some methods e.g., Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), are very expensive (e.g., MCMC) while others are cheaper but may generate biased samples. In this paper, we propose an unconstrained Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) fitting method to approximate the posterior PDF and investigate new strategies to further enhance its performance. To reduce the CPU time of handling bound constraints, we reformulate the GMM fitting formulation such that an unconstrained optimization algorithm can be applied to find the optimal solution of unknown GMM parameters. To obtain a sufficiently accurate GMM approximation with the lowest number of Gaussian components, we generate random initial guesses, remove components with very small or very large mixture weights after each GMM fitting iteration and prevent their reappearance using a dedicated filter. To prevent overfitting, we only add a new Gaussian component if the quality of the GMM approximation on a (large) set of blind-test data sufficiently improves. The unconstrained GMM fitting method with the new strategies proposed in this paper is validated using nonlinear toy problems and then applied to a synthetic history matching example. It can construct a GMM approximation of the posterior PDF that is comparable to the MCMC method, and it is significantly more efficient than the constrained GMM fitting formulation, e.g., reducing the CPU time by a factor of 800 to 7300 for problems we tested, which makes it quite attractive for large scale history matching problems.
当在贝叶斯框架内制定历史匹配时,我们可以使用从后验概率密度函数(PDF)中采样的条件实现来量化模型参数和生产预测的不确定性。这是相当具有挑战性的采样这样一个后验PDF。一些方法,例如,马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC),是非常昂贵的(例如,MCMC),而其他方法更便宜,但可能产生有偏差的样本。在本文中,我们提出了一种无约束高斯混合模型(GMM)拟合方法来近似后验PDF,并研究了进一步提高其性能的新策略。为了减少处理有界约束的CPU时间,我们重新制定了GMM拟合公式,使无约束优化算法可以用于寻找未知GMM参数的最优解。为了用最少的高斯分量获得足够精确的GMM近似值,我们生成随机的初始猜测,在每次GMM拟合迭代后去除混合权重非常小或非常大的分量,并使用专用滤波器防止它们再次出现。为了防止过拟合,只有在(大)盲测数据集上的GMM近似质量得到充分改善时,我们才添加新的高斯分量。利用非线性玩具问题验证了采用新策略的无约束GMM拟合方法,并将其应用于一个综合历史匹配实例。它可以构建与MCMC方法相当的后验PDF的GMM近似,并且它比约束GMM拟合公式显着更高效,例如,对于我们测试的问题,将CPU时间减少了800到7300倍,这使得它对大规模历史匹配问题非常有吸引力。
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引用次数: 0
Bridging the Gap Between Material Balance and Reservoir Simulation for History Matching and Probabilistic Forecasting Using Machine Learning 利用机器学习弥合历史匹配和概率预测的物质平衡和油藏模拟之间的差距
Pub Date : 2021-10-19 DOI: 10.2118/203941-ms
N. Goodwin
Methods for efficient probabilistic history matching and forecasting have been available for complex reservoir studies for nearly 20 years. These require a surprisingly small number of reservoir simulation runs (typically less than 200). Nowadays, the bottleneck for reservoir decision support is building and maintaining a reservoir simulation model. This paper describes an approach which does not require a reservoir simulation model, is data driven, and includes a physics model based on material balance. It can be useful where a full simulation model is not economically justified, or where rapid decisions need to be made. Previous work has described the use of proxy models and Hamiltonian Markov Chain Monte Carlo to produce valid probabilistic forecasts. To generate a data driven model, we take historical measurements of rates and pressures at each well, and apply multi-variate time series to generate a set of differential-algebraic equations (DAE) which can be integrated over time using a fully implicit solver. We combine the time series models with material balance equations, including a simple PVT and Z factor model. The parameters are adjusted in a fully Bayesian manner to generate an ensemble of models and a probabilistic forecast. The use of a DAE distinguishes the approach from normal time-series analysis, where an ARIMA model or state space model is used, and is normally only reliable for short term forecasting. We apply these techniques to the Volve reservoir model, and obtain a good history match. Moreover, the effort to build a reservoir model has been removed. We demonstrate the feasibility of simple physics models, and open up the possibility of combinations of physics models and machine learning models, so that the most appropriate approach can be used depending on resources and reservoir complexity. We have bridged the gap between pure machine learning models and full reservoir simulation. The approach to use multi-variate time series analysis to generate a set of ordinary differential equations is novel. The extension of previously described probabilistic forecasting to a generalised model has many possible applications within and outside the oil and gas industry, and is not restricted to reservoir simulation.
近20年来,复杂储层的概率历史匹配和预测方法已经成熟。这需要非常少的油藏模拟运行次数(通常少于200次)。目前,油藏模拟模型的建立和维护是油藏决策支持的瓶颈。本文描述了一种不需要油藏模拟模型的方法,它是数据驱动的,包括基于物质平衡的物理模型。当一个完整的模拟模型在经济上不合理,或者需要做出快速决策时,它是有用的。以前的工作描述了使用代理模型和哈密顿马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗来产生有效的概率预测。为了生成数据驱动模型,我们对每口井的产量和压力进行历史测量,并应用多变量时间序列生成一组微分代数方程(DAE),这些方程可以使用全隐式求解器随时间积分。我们将时间序列模型与物料平衡方程结合起来,包括一个简单的PVT和Z因子模型。以完全贝叶斯的方式调整参数,生成模型集合和概率预测。DAE的使用将该方法与正常的时间序列分析方法区分开来,后者使用ARIMA模型或状态空间模型,通常仅对短期预测可靠。将这些技术应用于Volve油藏模型,获得了较好的历史拟合结果。此外,建立油藏模型的工作也被取消了。我们展示了简单物理模型的可行性,并开辟了物理模型和机器学习模型相结合的可能性,以便根据资源和油藏的复杂性使用最合适的方法。我们已经弥合了纯机器学习模型和全油藏模拟之间的差距。利用多变量时间序列分析生成一组常微分方程的方法是新颖的。将先前描述的概率预测扩展为广义模型,在油气行业内外都有许多可能的应用,而且不局限于油藏模拟。
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引用次数: 0
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