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Seasonal variations in proglacial lake area revealed by high spatial resolution planetscope satellite imagery 高空间分辨率行星望远镜卫星影像揭示的前冰期湖区季节变化
IF 2.7 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2026-02-08 DOI: 10.1002/esp.70253
Amelia Andrews, Nathaniel R. Baurley, Jadunandan Dash, Jane Hart

Seasonal variations in proglacial lakes are often omitted from long-term records of lake behaviour due to the trade-off between high-spatial versus high-temporal resolution satellite imagery. Understanding the impact of these short-term fluctuations on long-term studies of proglacial lake growth is essential for accurately predicting future growth, as well as for understanding the risk of jökulhlaups or glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Here, we use high spatial resolution (3.7 m) PlanetScope imagery to detect short-term variations in the area of Fjallsárlón, a large proglacial lake in southeast Iceland. We demonstrate that between 2017 and 2023, moderate resolution imagery underestimates seasonal variations in lake behaviour by ~7% compared with PlanetScope imagery. In addition, the use of a single image from summer months (June to August) underestimates the annual maximum lake area by up to ~2%. The omission of these short-term variations in longer-term studies risks misrepresenting patterns of lake growth and behaviour, which has implications for glacier retreat, contribution to sea level rise and downstream flood risk from GLOFs.

由于高空间分辨率与高时间分辨率卫星图像之间的权衡,在湖泊行为的长期记录中往往忽略了前冰期湖泊的季节变化。了解这些短期波动对前冰湖生长的长期研究的影响,对于准确预测未来的生长,以及了解jökulhlaups或冰湖溃决洪水(GLOFs)的风险至关重要。在这里,我们使用高空间分辨率(3.7 m) PlanetScope图像来检测冰岛东南部一个大型前冰湖Fjallsárlón区域的短期变化。我们证明,在2017年至2023年之间,与PlanetScope图像相比,中等分辨率图像低估了湖泊行为的季节变化约7%。此外,使用夏季(6月至8月)的单幅图像低估了年最大湖泊面积约2%。在长期研究中忽略这些短期变化可能会歪曲湖泊生长和行为的模式,从而对冰川退缩、海平面上升和全球臭氧层变化造成的下游洪水风险产生影响。
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引用次数: 0
Paper: Suspended sediment transport in the Mariuá archipelago: A megacomplex anabranching system in the Negro River (Amazon Basin) 论文:马里乌<e:1>群岛的悬浮泥沙运输:内格罗河(亚马逊盆地)的一个大型复杂分支系统
IF 2.7 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2026-02-08 DOI: 10.1002/esp.70254
Matheus Silveira de Queiroz, Rogério Ribeiro Marinho

This study investigates the interactions between sediments and biota in the Mariuá Archipelago, a mega-complex anabranching reach of the Negro River, the main blackwater river in the Amazon Basin, to understand the dynamics of the ecosystem in cratonic systems with limited supply. Using satellite imagery and hydrological data (2019–2024), we characterized suspended sediment concentration (SSC) patterns and evaluated geomorphological controls on habitat stability. Results revealed minimal inter-channel SSC variation (6.53–7.32 mg.L−1) across the archipelago, contrasting sharply with sediment-rich Andean tributaries. Annual suspended sediment flux decreased 23% through the archipelago (4.48 × 106 ton.year−1 upstream to 3.38 × 106 ton.year−1 downstream), indicating net retention of 1.10 × 106 ton.year−1 within inter-island lakes and floodplains. The low specific sediment yield (12–15 ton.km−2.year−1) and the contemporary sedimentation rate (0.10 ± 0.05 mm.year−1) contrast with Middle Holocene formation conditions, when the Negro River had higher energy and a greater sediment concentration than at present. Low correlations between SSC, water discharge and precipitation (r ≤ 0.51) demonstrate limited environmental forcing in this cratonic landscape. Spatial analysis reveals that downstream lakes function as suspended sediment sinks, concentrating fine particles during low-water periods and supporting distinct aquatic plant communities. This supply-limited regime enables ecosystem stability through reduced sediment-mediated disturbance, maintaining persistent habitats for endemic biota since the Pleistocene. However, mining, deforestation and climate change threaten this equilibrium by potentially increasing suspended sediment inputs beyond historical ranges. Geomorphological constraints in ancient cratonic systems promote long-term ecological stability, rather than disturbance-driven dynamics. This study provides new insights for the conservation planning of fluvial ecosystems in this unique landscape.

本研究调查了马里乌群岛沉积物和生物群之间的相互作用,马里乌群岛是内格罗河的一个大型复杂分支,内格罗河是亚马逊盆地的主要黑水河,旨在了解供应有限的克拉通系统中生态系统的动态。利用卫星图像和水文数据(2019-2024),研究了悬沙浓度(SSC)模式,并评估了地貌控制对栖息地稳定性的影响。结果显示,整个群岛的通道间SSC变化最小(6.53-7.32 mg.L−1),与富含沉积物的安第斯支流形成鲜明对比。年悬沙通量减少23% (4.48 × 106吨)。−1上游为3.38 × 106吨。−1年下游),净保留量为1.10 × 106吨。年−1在岛间湖泊和洪泛平原。比产沙量低(12-15吨。km−2)。(0.10±0.05 mm.year - 1)与中全新世形成条件形成对比,当时内格罗河具有比现在更高的能量和更大的沉积物浓度。SSC、水量和降水的低相关性(r≤0.51)表明该克拉通景观的环境强迫有限。空间分析表明,下游湖泊具有悬浮沉淀池的功能,在低潮期聚集细颗粒物,并支持不同的水生植物群落。这种供应有限的制度通过减少沉积物介导的干扰使生态系统稳定,维持了自更新世以来特有生物群的持久栖息地。然而,采矿、森林砍伐和气候变化可能使悬浮沉积物的输入超出历史范围,从而威胁到这种平衡。古克拉通系统的地貌约束促进了长期的生态稳定性,而不是扰动驱动的动力学。该研究为这一独特景观的河流生态系统保护规划提供了新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Correction to “Refining the evolutionary model of a barrier island (Castle Neck, Massachusetts): A complex interaction with tidal inlet processes” 修正“改进堰洲岛(马萨诸塞州Castle Neck)的进化模型:与潮汐入口过程的复杂相互作用”
IF 2.7 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1002/esp.70255

Isla, M.F. FitzGerald, D.M. Dougherty, A.J. Buynevich, I.V. Hein, C.J. Black, S. 2025 Refining the evolutionary model of a barrier island (Castle Neck, Massachusetts): A complex interaction with tidal inlet processes Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 50 15 e70225 https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70225

In the author list, Amy J. Dougherty's affiliation “School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Medicine and Health, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia” was incorrect. This should have read: “Center for Teaching & Learning Design, Stockton University, Galloway, New Jersey, USA.”

We apologize for this error.

Isla, M.F. FitzGerald, D.M. Dougherty, A.J. Buynevich, I.V. Hein, C.J. Black, S. 2025改进堰洲岛的进化模型(Castle Neck, Massachusetts):在作者列表中,Amy J. Dougherty的隶属关系“the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, Medicine and Health, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia”是不正确的。这应该是:“教学与学习设计中心,斯托克顿大学,加洛韦,新泽西州,美国。”我们为这个错误道歉。
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引用次数: 0
The southwest Kalahari dune field does not emit dust post-fire despite a lack of vegetation and above-threshold winds 喀拉哈里沙漠西南部的沙丘地带尽管缺乏植被和超过阈值的风,但火灾后不会排放灰尘
IF 2.7 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2026-02-05 DOI: 10.1002/esp.70258
Rosemary A. Huck, David S. G. Thomas, Giles F. S. Wiggs

Vegetated sand dunes are not typically considered to be significant sources of dust because of coarse grain sizes and high vegetation cover. Yet, plumes of dust have been observed from vegetated dune fields, and wind tunnel experiments show the potential for interdunes to emit dust. The partially vegetated southwest Kalahari is one such dune field that is vulnerable to climate-driven land degradation and vegetation cover change and has been posited as a potential future dust source. In this study, we monitor the post-fire de-vegetated state of 11 interdunes to investigate the dust emission potential and erodibility controls on emission. Findings suggest that there is little emission of dust despite a fine-grain component (up to 30% of resident grains <62.5 μm) and a lack of vegetation, even with high velocity wind events (>7 m s−1) post-fire. Erosive wind events were less frequent compared to other dust-producing regions, with wind speeds generally under 7 m s−1. Five high wind speed events over 7 m s−1 were recorded in September 2022, the month immediately following burning, but even then, only one event had a concurrent increase in aerosol concentration. This is indicative of other erodibility factors limiting dust emission. These include high (>50%) burned debris cover in the immediate post-fire period and evidence of biological soil crusts that survived burning. Both protect the surface after fire whilst the natural vegetation cover recovers. Combined, the general low wind speeds, high initial surface cover, and the protective effect of biocrusts result in a low probability of the southwest Kalahari emitting dust post-fire. However, fine-grain sizes and low vegetation cover under drought and high grazing may lead to conditions conducive for dust emission.

有植被的沙丘通常不被认为是重要的沙尘来源,因为沙丘的颗粒大小较大,植被覆盖率高。然而,从植被覆盖的沙丘地区已经观察到羽状尘埃,风洞实验也显示了沙丘间释放尘埃的可能性。部分植被覆盖的喀拉哈里沙漠西南部就是这样一个沙丘区,容易受到气候驱动的土地退化和植被覆盖变化的影响,并被认为是未来潜在的粉尘来源。本研究通过对11个丘间带火灾后植被消失状态的监测,探讨了火灾后丘间带的粉尘排放潜力及其可蚀性控制因素。研究结果表明,尽管有细颗粒成分(高达30%的居住颗粒<;62.5 μm)和缺乏植被,即使在火灾后的高速风事件(>7 m s−1)中,也几乎没有粉尘排放。与其他产沙区相比,侵蚀风事件较少,风速一般在7 m s−1以下。在燃烧后的一个月,即2022年9月,记录了5次超过7 m s - 1的高风速事件,但即使在那时,也只有一次事件同时增加了气溶胶浓度。这表明限制粉尘排放的其他可蚀性因素。这包括在火灾后的一段时间内高(>50%)燃烧的碎片覆盖,以及在燃烧中幸存的生物土壤结壳的证据。两者都在火灾后保护地表,同时自然植被覆盖恢复。总的来说,低风速、高初始地表覆盖和生物外壳的保护作用导致喀拉哈里西南部在火灾后排放粉尘的可能性很低。然而,在干旱和高放牧条件下,细粒度和低植被覆盖可能导致有利于沙尘排放的条件。
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引用次数: 0
Scour hole behaviour: A field study of the Dutch Rhine Delta 冲刷孔行为:荷兰莱茵河三角洲的实地研究
IF 2.7 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1002/esp.70252
Marthe Oldenhof, Jord J. Warmink, Koen Blanckaert, Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher

Scour holes are common features in river deltas formed by a combination of hydrodynamic and geotechnical conditions. While previous studies have primarily focused on their long-term evolution toward equilibrium, their response to a single flood wave remains relatively underexplored. This study makes use of a unique, extensive dataset of frequently measured bed levels in the Dutch Rhine Delta to investigate the short-term behaviour of scour holes.

The analyses reveal that scour hole behaviour can be divided into two categories: dynamic and stable. We propose a conceptual model to describe this behaviour. Dynamic scour holes show large fluctuations in area, depth and volume caused by seasonal discharge variations. These temporal fluctuations exceed annual growth rates. By contrast, stable scour holes show virtually no variations in shape and dimensions. They are generally smaller in area but almost twice as deep as dynamic scour holes. Their large depths and steep slopes prevent sediment from being transported up the slopes, showing a stabilisation in depth.

Dynamic scour holes are typically located in upstream river reaches, where the sandy beds and engineering works allow for significant erosion and aggradation. Stable scour holes are found in tidal river reaches, where peak discharges are attenuated. Due to the absence of these peak discharges, combined with a strong heterogeneous river bed composed of easily and hardly erodible layers, growth in area is limited.

冲刷孔是水动力条件和岩土工程条件共同作用下形成的河流三角洲的共同特征。虽然以前的研究主要集中在它们向平衡的长期进化上,但它们对单一洪水波的反应仍然相对较少。本研究利用荷兰莱茵河三角洲一个独特的、广泛的经常测量的河床水平数据集来研究冲刷孔的短期行为。分析表明,冲刷孔的行为可分为动态和稳定两类。我们提出了一个概念模型来描述这种行为。动态冲刷孔的面积、深度和体积受季节流量变化的影响有较大的波动。这些时间波动超过了年增长率。相比之下,稳定冲刷孔在形状和尺寸上几乎没有变化。它们的面积通常较小,但深度几乎是动态冲刷孔的两倍。它们的大深度和陡峭的斜坡阻止了沉积物向斜坡上移动,显示出深度的稳定。动态冲刷孔通常位于河流上游,那里的沙质河床和工程工程允许严重的侵蚀和恶化。在潮汐河段发现了稳定的冲刷孔,在那里洪峰流量被减弱。由于缺乏这些峰值流量,再加上由易侵蚀和难侵蚀层组成的强非均质河床,面积的增长受到限制。
{"title":"Scour hole behaviour: A field study of the Dutch Rhine Delta","authors":"Marthe Oldenhof,&nbsp;Jord J. Warmink,&nbsp;Koen Blanckaert,&nbsp;Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher","doi":"10.1002/esp.70252","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.70252","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Scour holes are common features in river deltas formed by a combination of hydrodynamic and geotechnical conditions. While previous studies have primarily focused on their long-term evolution toward equilibrium, their response to a single flood wave remains relatively underexplored. This study makes use of a unique, extensive dataset of frequently measured bed levels in the Dutch Rhine Delta to investigate the short-term behaviour of scour holes.</p><p>The analyses reveal that scour hole behaviour can be divided into two categories: <i>dynamic</i> and <i>stable</i>. We propose a conceptual model to describe this behaviour. Dynamic scour holes show large fluctuations in area, depth and volume caused by seasonal discharge variations. These temporal fluctuations exceed annual growth rates. By contrast, stable scour holes show virtually no variations in shape and dimensions. They are generally smaller in area but almost twice as deep as dynamic scour holes. Their large depths and steep slopes prevent sediment from being transported up the slopes, showing a stabilisation in depth.</p><p>Dynamic scour holes are typically located in upstream river reaches, where the sandy beds and engineering works allow for significant erosion and aggradation. Stable scour holes are found in tidal river reaches, where peak discharges are attenuated. Due to the absence of these peak discharges, combined with a strong heterogeneous river bed composed of easily and hardly erodible layers, growth in area is limited.</p>","PeriodicalId":11408,"journal":{"name":"Earth Surface Processes and Landforms","volume":"51 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.7,"publicationDate":"2026-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/esp.70252","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146139129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Palaeoglacier reconstruction and dynamics of Cordillera Vilcanota in the tropical high Peruvian Andes 秘鲁安第斯山脉热带高地维尔卡诺塔山古冰川重建与动力学
IF 2.7 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1002/esp.70246
Bethan Davies, Tom Gribbin, Owen King, Tom Matthews, Jan R. Baiker, Wouter Buytaert, Jonathan Carrivick, Fabian Drenkhan, Juan-Luis García, Nilton Montoya, L. Baker Perry, Jeremy Ely

Tropical glaciers are important indicators of climate change, provide freshwater resources for downstream communities, and form an important component of the hydrological cycle. Understanding the dynamics and patterns of behaviour of tropical palaeoglaciers is important for interpreting their sensitivities and vulnerabilities. Glacier advances in the high tropical Peruvian Andes occurred multiple times during the last glacial cycle and Holocene, leaving complex geomorphological evidence on the landscape. The substantial topographic, geological and climatic variability in this region leads to high geomorphic diversity. However, few detailed geomorphological studies have been conducted to date, leading to considerable uncertainty in the behaviours and drivers of tropical palaeoglaciers. Here, we provide a detailed geomorphological analysis of the Cordillera Vilcanota, Cusco region, southern Peru (71°W, 13.7°S), and use morphostratigraphic principles to reconstruct the former maximum icefield extent and palaeoglacier advances. Across this domain, we mapped ~23,000 features encompassing five key environments: glacier, subglacial, ice-marginal, fluvial and lacustrine. The mapped features show evidence of both modern-day polythermal and temperate ice margins, with low meltwater volumes leading to small-scale glaciofluvial landform formation. However, larger moraines, beyond those well-dated to the Younger Dryas and Antarctic Cold Reversal, assumed to represent Last Glacial Maximum and earlier advances, suggest that conditions were temperate and drained by more substantial rivers, with coupled flow of ice and till, and evidence of subglacial scouring, drumlin formation and the deposition of substantial moraines and large palaeosandar. Our reconstructed maximum icefield covers 2,660 km2 and was drained by multiple topographically constrained ice lobes across the region. In the north, these ice lobes reached an elevation of 3,500 m asl, but were limited to above 4,500 m asl in the south, likely reflecting the dominant moisture sources. Our geomorphological mapping reveals seven clear ice margins, morphostratigraphically correlated across the study region, reflecting at least seven palaeoglacier advances during the last glacial cycle, including the Late Glacial period and the Holocene.

热带冰川是气候变化的重要指标,为下游社区提供淡水资源,是水循环的重要组成部分。了解热带古冰川的动力学和行为模式对于解释它们的敏感性和脆弱性非常重要。在最后一次冰期循环和全新世期间,秘鲁热带安第斯山脉的冰川多次前进,在景观上留下了复杂的地貌证据。该地区地形、地质和气候的大量变化导致了地貌的高度多样性。然而,迄今为止很少进行详细的地貌学研究,导致热带古冰川的行为和驱动因素存在相当大的不确定性。本文对秘鲁南部库斯科地区(71°W, 13.7°S)的维尔卡诺塔科迪勒拉(Cordillera Vilcanota)进行了详细的地貌分析,并利用形态地层学原理重建了前最大冰原范围和古冰川推进。在这一领域,我们绘制了约23000个特征,包括5个关键环境:冰川、冰下、冰缘、河流和湖泊。地图上的特征显示了现代多热冰缘和温带冰缘的证据,低融水量导致了小规模冰川河流地貌的形成。然而,更大的冰碛,除了那些确定年代为新森林期和南极寒流逆转期的冰碛,被认为代表末次冰期极大期和更早的进展,表明条件是温和的,由更坚固的河流排水,冰和土的耦合流动,以及冰下冲刷、鼓状形成和坚固的冰碛和大型古砂砂的沉积的证据。我们重建的最大冰原面积为2,660 km2,由多个地形受限的冰瓣排干。在北部,这些冰裂片达到海拔3500米,但在南部仅限于海拔4500米以上,可能反映了主要的水分来源。我们的地貌地图显示了七个清晰的冰缘,在整个研究区域中,形态地层学相关,反映了至少七个在末次冰期旋回的古冰川推进,包括晚冰期和全新世。
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引用次数: 0
Unravelling the frequency and magnitude of large wood mobility and transport distance across 11 low-order streams over multiple years 揭示了多年来11条低阶河流中大型木材流动性和运输距离的频率和幅度
IF 2.7 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1002/esp.70248
Bryce D. Finch, Johan L. Aarnink, Andrés Iroumé, Katherine B. Lininger, Susan Hilton, Stanley Gregory, Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva

Large wood (LW) entrainment and transport observations of naturally occurring wood in rivers are critical for understanding wood dynamics. However, they remain limited and sparse, primarily originating from single-site studies. As a result, broader spatial or temporal variability of wood dynamics may not be adequately captured. We compiled a database of tracked, natural pieces of wood from 11 low-order and relatively steep streams in the Chilean Andes, Swiss Alps, United Kingdom and United States. From decades to single-year studies, we gathered 59,739 observations of tracked wood, which all include at least a recorded length and transport distance. River characteristics varied according to channel width, less than 5 m to wider than 15 m, and gradient, between < 0.02 and > 0.04 m/m. The meta-analysis enabled us to calculate probabilities and identify general patterns. Wood mobilization varied significantly interannually, reflecting the complex interplay between flood events and wood storage. Overall, a small proportion of tagged wood moved during study periods, primarily during events associated with return periods exceeding 10 years. Most mobile pieces travelled less than 1 km, and longer distances had relatively low probabilities, typically occurring during high-magnitude flood events associated with return periods over 10 years. Results showed that large wood mobility in rivers is generally infrequent and highly variable, influenced by a combination of wood characteristics, river size and flood magnitude. Understanding variability can help inform risk-based flood hazard planning, river management and river restoration projects implementing large wood. Future studies should expand upon the current dataset.

大木材(LW)夹带和运输观测的自然存在的木材在河流是至关重要的理解木材动力学。然而,它们仍然有限和稀少,主要来自单点研究。因此,可能无法充分捕捉到木材动态的更广泛的空间或时间变异性。我们编制了一个数据库,其中包括来自智利安第斯山脉、瑞士阿尔卑斯山、英国和美国的11条低阶和相对陡峭的溪流的追踪的天然木材。从几十年的研究到一年的研究,我们收集了59,739个跟踪木材的观察结果,其中至少包括记录的长度和运输距离。河道宽度从小于5米到大于15米不等,坡度从<; 0.02到>; 0.04 m/m不等。荟萃分析使我们能够计算概率并确定一般模式。木材动员年际变化显著,反映了洪水事件与木材储存之间复杂的相互作用。总体而言,在研究期间有一小部分带标签的木材移动,主要是在与超过10年的回访期相关的事件期间。大多数移动碎片的移动距离小于1公里,较长距离的移动概率相对较低,通常发生在与10年以上的复发期相关的高强度洪水事件期间。结果表明,受木材特性、河流大小和洪水强度的综合影响,河流中大型木材流动通常不频繁且变化很大。了解可变性有助于为基于风险的洪水灾害规划、河流管理和河流恢复项目提供信息,并实施大型木材。未来的研究应该在当前数据集的基础上进行扩展。
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引用次数: 0
Relationship between geomorphological characteristics, environmental settings and activity of transitional rock glaciers: Insights from a statistical analysis in the French Alps 地貌特征、环境背景和过渡岩冰川活动之间的关系:来自法国阿尔卑斯山统计分析的见解
IF 2.7 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1002/esp.70243
Julia Agziou, Benjamin Lehmann, Diego Cusicanqui, Franck Corset, Xavier Bodin, Philippe Schoeneich

Permafrost creep is manifested by the presence of rock glaciers in mountainous areas, which are climatically driven landforms. Under degrading permafrost conditions, these ice-rich bodies tend to slow down until deactivation through a transition phase. However, the ongoing processes and their associated geomorphic responses remain are still poorly understood. This study aims to better understand the relationship between their activity, topo-climate conditions, and associated geomorphic responses of transitional rock glaciers. The activity of 520 landforms in the French Alps was assessed through Differential Interferometry Single Aperture Radar (DInSAR). Kinematic attributes were then correlated with topo-climatic and geomorphic characteristics using statistical exploration (Multiple Correspondence Analysis, MCA) and modelling (Multinomial/Binomial Logistic Regression, MLR/BLR). Results show that 71% of rock glaciers are stabilized or slow-moving landforms, while 23% exhibit surface velocities greater than 10 cm/year. Both MCA and MLR/BLR highlight that fast-moving rock glaciers are strongly correlated with higher latitudes, high elevations, steep slopes and convex morphologies, in contrast to slow-moving rock glaciers. MLR analysis revealed further differences between slow and fast classes. Rock glaciers with velocities <1 cm/year and 1–10 cm/year are located at lower latitudes and elevations, and in regions with unfavourable permafrost conditions. However, the <1 cm/year class is still found on steep slopes, suggesting that these landforms may not contain enough ice to maintain permafrost creep. Rock glaciers with velocities between 1 and 10 cm/year are more likely on smoother slopes, but they also show high occurrence probabilities at high elevations, indicating dynamic deactivation processes. Finally, the 10–30 cm/year class is slightly more probable under unfavourable permafrost conditions, which may suggest ongoing climatic deactivation. High-speed ranges were also associated with heterogeneous and small-moving areas within rock glacier systems, suggesting the presence of restricted permafrost conditions within a deactivating system. This finding raises important questions about spatial transitions and the temporal evolution of such kinematic behaviour.

多年冻土蠕变表现为山区岩石冰川的存在,这是气候驱动的地貌。在退化的永久冻土条件下,这些富含冰的体往往会减慢速度,直到通过一个过渡阶段停止活动。然而,正在进行的过程及其相关的地貌反应仍然知之甚少。本研究旨在更好地了解它们的活动、地形气候条件和过渡性岩石冰川相关地貌响应之间的关系。利用差分干涉单孔雷达(DInSAR)对法国阿尔卑斯山520个地貌的活动性进行了评估。然后利用统计探索(多重对应分析,MCA)和建模(多项/二项逻辑回归,MLR/BLR)将运动学属性与地形-气候和地貌特征关联起来。结果表明,71%的岩石冰川为稳定或缓慢移动地貌,23%的岩石冰川地表移动速度大于10 cm/年。MCA和MLR/BLR都强调,与缓慢移动的岩石冰川相比,快速移动的岩石冰川与高纬度、高海拔、陡坡和凸形地貌密切相关。MLR分析进一步揭示了慢类和快类之间的差异。速度为<;1 cm/年和1 - 10 cm/年的岩石冰川位于较低的纬度和海拔,以及冻土条件不利的地区。然而,在陡峭的斜坡上仍然发现了1厘米/年的冰,这表明这些地形可能没有足够的冰来维持永久冻土的蠕变。速度在1 ~ 10 cm/年之间的岩石冰川更可能出现在较光滑的斜坡上,但它们在高海拔地区也显示出较高的发生概率,表明动态失活过程。最后,在不利的永久冻土条件下,10-30厘米/年的可能性略高,这可能表明正在进行的气候失活。高速范围还与岩石冰川系统内的非均匀和小移动区域有关,这表明在失活系统中存在受限的永久冻土条件。这一发现提出了关于空间转换和这种运动行为的时间演变的重要问题。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of earthquakes on landslide activity in the permafrost regions of the Qilian Mountains, China 祁连山多年冻土区地震对滑坡活动的影响
IF 2.7 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1002/esp.70251
Jing Zhang, Jie Chen, Junming Hao, Pengfei Niu, Chengqiu Li, Ruidong Liu, Meifang Bian, Ren-mao Yuan, Ping-gen Zhou

Landslide activity in the Qilian Mountains is increasing due to permafrost thawing driven by global warming, where also developed numerous reverse strike-slip active faults with frequent and high-intensity earthquakes. While many studies have examined the influence of climate change on landslide activity in permafrost regions, the role of earthquakes in modulating landslide behaviour in such environments remains less well quantified. In this study, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) was employed to investigate whether the 2022 Menyuan earthquake induced post-seismic acceleration of landslides in permafrost areas. The results show that the earthquakes exerted a pronounced impact on landslide deformation, producing an instantaneous subsidence of approximately 24.83 mm, which is substantially larger than the maximum annual displacement observed before the event. Moreover, post-seismic landslide velocities increased by up to 21 mm/year, and the seasonal deformation amplitude after the earthquake was approximately twice that observed during the pre-seismic period. To further elucidate the mechanisms underlying these responses, we quantified the dominant controlling factors of landslide deformation using a Geographic Detector approach. The results indicate that landslides located closer to active faults exhibit larger displacement rates, although no clear hanging-wall or footwall effect was observed. Landslides at higher elevations, particularly above 3,450 m, are more susceptible to deformation. Importantly, we find that landslides under colder ground temperature conditions are more strongly affected by seismic shaking and tend to exhibit larger post-seismic deformation, with a 0.2°C decrease in ground temperature corresponding to an increase of approximately 5 mm/year in displacement rate. These findings provide new quantitative insights into the role of earthquakes in controlling landslide activity in permafrost regions and highlight the importance of permafrost thermal conditions in modulating post-seismic landslide behaviour.

全球变暖导致多年冻土融化,祁连山滑坡活动加剧,祁连山地区逆走滑活动断层众多,地震频发,烈度高。虽然许多研究已经审查了气候变化对永久冻土区滑坡活动的影响,但地震在这种环境中调节滑坡行为方面的作用仍然没有得到很好的量化。本文采用干涉合成孔径雷达(InSAR)对2022年门源地震是否诱发多年冻土区滑坡的震后加速进行了研究。结果表明:地震对滑坡变形影响显著,瞬时沉降量约为24.83 mm,明显大于地震前观测到的年最大位移量;震后滑坡速度增加了21 mm/年,震后季节变形幅值约为震前的2倍。为了进一步阐明这些响应背后的机制,我们使用地理探测器方法量化了滑坡变形的主要控制因素。结果表明,靠近活动断层的滑坡位移速率较大,但没有明显的上、下盘效应。在海拔较高的地方,特别是海拔3,450米以上的地方,山体滑坡更容易发生变形。重要的是,我们发现在较冷地温条件下的滑坡受地震震动的影响更强烈,并且往往表现出更大的震后变形,地温每降低0.2°C对应的位移速率增加约5 mm/年。这些发现为地震在控制多年冻土区滑坡活动中的作用提供了新的定量见解,并强调了多年冻土区热条件在调节地震后滑坡行为中的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Characterization of the wood transport regime of a river with a neural network model 用神经网络模型表征河流的木材运输机制
IF 2.7 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1002/esp.70247
Hossein Ghaffarian, Bruce MacVicar, Hervé Piégay

The primary drivers of river morphology and dynamics are the hydrologic and sedimentologic regimes, but the wood regime is also important. Fallen wood will typically float at the water surface during floods, and the movement and deposition of large pieces can alter the trajectory of sedimentary bedforms, aquatic habitat, and flood hazards. Accurate quantification of floating wood in rivers is now possible, which is enabling us to better understand the role of this key variable, but frequency analysis is rare due to the relatively recent application of monitoring methods and a lack of standard analytical methods. The current study assembles the longest and most complete record of riverine wood transport yet available. Specific objectives are to (a) synthesize and validate a long time series of wood transport from available observations using a neural network model and (b) describe the probability of wood transport events at a river station. The wood record was assembled from manual observations of large wood in multiple flood events and an automated analysis of the full video record, which was estimated to have a precision of 85% and recall of 86%. The neural network predicted wood transport volume from climate and hydrologic records and was found to have Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of over 75%. Comparison of model predictions with wood-mobilization estimates from aerial photos were within 30% for 5–10 year periods and 2% for a 40-year period. The wood regime was characterized with (i) an assessment of seasonality; (ii) a rating curve of wood volume from event peak discharge; and (iii) an extreme event analysis of daily maximum and yearly wood transport volume. The methods are useful for characterizing a river's large wood transport regime and hindcasting historical wood mass transfer from flow records. This information will help to understand river dynamics and facilitate sustainable river management.

河流形态和动态的主要驱动因素是水文和沉积制度,但木材制度也很重要。在洪水期间,倒下的木材通常会漂浮在水面上,大块木材的移动和沉积会改变沉积河床的轨迹、水生栖息地和洪水危害。现在可以对河流中的浮动木材进行精确量化,这使我们能够更好地了解这一关键变量的作用,但由于监测方法的应用相对较晚,缺乏标准的分析方法,因此很少进行频率分析。目前的研究汇集了迄今为止最长、最完整的河流木材运输记录。具体目标是:(a)利用神经网络模型综合和验证来自现有观测的长时间木材运输序列,以及(b)描述河流站木材运输事件的概率。木材记录是通过多次洪水事件中对大型木材的人工观察和对完整视频记录的自动分析收集而成的,估计其精度为85%,召回率为86%。神经网络根据气候和水文记录预测木材运输量,发现纳什-萨特克利夫效率超过75%。在5-10年期间,模型预测与航空照片估算的木材动员值的比较误差在30%以内,在40年期间的比较误差在2%以内。木材状况的特点是:(i)季节性评估;(ii)事件峰值排放的木材量评级曲线;(3)日最大木材运输量和年木材运输量的极端事件分析。这些方法有助于刻画河流的大木材运输规律,并从水流记录中反演历史木材质量转移。这些信息将有助于了解河流动态,促进可持续的河流管理。
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引用次数: 0
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Earth Surface Processes and Landforms
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