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Cosmogenic 10Be- and 21Ne-based model exposure ages of desert pavements in the Thar Desert, India 基于 10Be 和 21Ne 宇宙生成物的印度塔尔沙漠路面模型暴露年龄
IF 2.8 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2024-10-14 DOI: 10.1002/esp.5999
Rahul K. Kaushal, Sukumar Parida, Pavitra V. Kumar, Pankaj Kumar, Samuel Niedermann, Robert J. Wasson, Ram P. Dhir, Sundeep Chopra, Sheila Mishra, Shanti Pappu, Ashok K. Singhvi

The Thar Desert, India has desert pavements comprising angular-subangular to well-rounded gravels at marginally higher elevations than the surrounding terrain. Sedimentological and geomorphic analyses suggest that the pavements are lags of weathered Mesozoic and older bedrock. The presence of Palaeolithic artefacts on the pavement surfaces and occasionally within their matrix was used to infer their antiquity and landscape stability.

This study presents the first surface exposure ages based on cosmic-ray-produced 10Be and 21Ne for pavements at four sites in the Thar Desert, viz. Bhojka, Hamira, Solanki and Jayal. The computation of model exposure ages assumed that (a) the gravels were derived from cemented conglomerates, uplifted by tectonics and thereafter disintegrated by climate, and (b) cosmogenic nuclide production in the gravels began when the conglomerates approached the surface and, continued during their disintegration, gravity sliding of individual gravels and storage, until the present. Assuming an average burial depth of 50 cm, 21Ne and 10Be data provide ages ranging from 1.30 to 2.92 Ma and 1.11 to 5.4 Ma, respectively, for the two nuclides.

Published electron spin resonance ages of Thar calcretes suggest the presence of water and extreme seasonality since 1.54 Ma. Such conditions facilitated the mobilization and precipitation of carbonates. The pavement ages and the minimum age of the conglomerate at 2.51 Ma extend the time of such desertic conditions to > 2.51 Ma and suggest that the initiation of desertic conditions in the Thar was possibly linked to global aridity beginning around 3.6 Ma.

Depending on assumptions, cosmic ray surface exposure (10Be) ages at Jayal range between 0.76 and 2.43 Ma. In the context of the Indian Palaeolithic, the presence of tools on the gravel surfaces and within dunes, suggests frequent occupation of this region from at least 0.76 Ma and, parallels Early to Middle Pleistocene Acheulian assemblages from Southern India.

印度塔尔沙漠的沙漠路面由角状、长方形到圆形砾石组成,海拔略高于周围地形。沉积学和地貌学分析表明,这些路面是中生代和更古老的基岩风化而成的岩层。本研究首次根据宇宙射线产生的 10Be 和 21Ne 对塔尔沙漠四个地点(即 Bhojka、Hamira、Solanki 和 Jayal)的路面进行了地表暴露年龄分析。在计算模型暴露年龄时假定:(a)砾石来源于胶结砾岩,因构造作用而隆起,随后因气候作用而解体;(b)砾石中的宇宙成因核素产生于砾岩接近地表时,并在其解体、单个砾石的重力滑动和储存过程中持续至今。假设平均埋藏深度为 50 厘米,21Ne 和 10Be 数据分别提供了 1.30 至 2.92 Ma 和 1.11 至 5.4 Ma 的两种核素年龄。这些条件有利于碳酸盐的移动和沉淀。路面年龄和砾岩的最小年龄(2.51Ma)将这种沙漠化条件的时间延长到 > 2.51Ma,并表明塔尔沙漠化条件的开始可能与大约 3.6Ma 开始的全球干旱有关。在印度旧石器时代的背景下,砾石表面和沙丘内出现的工具表明,至少从公元前 0.76 年开始,该地区就被频繁占据,并与印度南部早更新世至中更新世的 Acheulian 组合相似。
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引用次数: 0
The geomorphic work of the European mole (Talpa europaea): Long-term monitoring of molehills using structure-from-motion photogrammetry
IF 2.8 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2024-10-13 DOI: 10.1002/esp.6008
Timothy Baxter, Sam Woor, Martin Coombes, Heather Viles

Moles—small insectivorous mammals of the family Talpidae—are widespread across the Northern Hemisphere. These subterranean mammals are easily detected through the mounds, or molehills, they construct as surface bioproducts of tunnel systems excavated underground. The dense aggregation of these bioconstructions in a range of environments (e.g., floodplains, woodland, coastal dunes and upland regions) indicates that moles may play an important role in sediment systems. However, compared with other fossorial mammals (e.g., gophers and rabbits), the impact of moles as direct and indirect biogeomorphic agents is poorly understood. Furthermore, little is known about how molehills develop and degrade over time or how long they persist as landscape features. By examining molehills created by the European mole (Talpa europaea) over 4 months on a floodplain in Oxfordshire, UK, we provide a quantitative assessment of how these landforms evolve over time and space. Through the creation of high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) using structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry, we derive a variety of metrics describing molehill morphology and produce a detailed record of how molehills change at weekly time intervals. In addition, measurements of molehill volume are used to estimate the excavation rate of moles over a month. Findings show that (i) molehills are dynamic landforms that change in size and shape in response to phases of construction, collapse, erosion and rebuilding; (ii) rates of degradation are influenced by soil characteristics and seasonal weather conditions; (iii) molehills can persist as landscape features for several months; and (iv) moles are capable of moving a substantial volume of sediment in highly active areas (3.89 m3 ha−1 month−1). Future work is now needed to determine the geomorphic impact of T. europaea over larger spatial scales (e.g., river catchments) and longer timescales (e.g., years–decades) to determine its importance in relation to other bioturbators and within the wider sediment system.

鼹鼠是 Talpidae 科的小型食虫哺乳动物,广泛分布于北半球。这些地下哺乳动物很容易通过它们在地下开凿的隧道系统中建造的土丘或鼹鼠丘被发现。这些生物构造在各种环境(如洪泛平原、林地、沿海沙丘和高地地区)中密集聚集,表明鼹鼠可能在沉积物系统中扮演着重要角色。然而,与其他有化石的哺乳动物(如地鼠和兔子)相比,人们对鼹鼠作为直接和间接生物地貌媒介的影响知之甚少。此外,人们对鼹鼠丘随着时间的推移是如何发展和退化的,以及鼹鼠丘作为地貌特征会持续多久也知之甚少。通过研究欧洲鼹鼠(Talpa europaea)在英国牛津郡洪泛平原上历时 4 个月形成的鼹鼠丘,我们对这些地貌如何随时间和空间演变进行了定量评估。通过使用运动结构摄影测量法(SfM)创建高分辨率数字高程模型(DEM),我们得出了描述鼹鼠丘形态的各种指标,并详细记录了鼹鼠丘在每周时间间隔内的变化情况。此外,鼹鼠山体积的测量结果还用于估算一个月内鼹鼠的挖掘率。研究结果表明:(i) 摩尔丘是一种动态地貌,其大小和形状会随着建造、崩塌、侵蚀和重建等阶段的变化而变化;(ii) 退化速度受土壤特性和季节性天气条件的影响;(iii) 摩尔丘作为地貌特征可持续存在数月;(iv) 摩尔丘能够在高度活跃的地区移动大量沉积物(3.89 立方米/公顷/月-1)。现在需要在更大的空间尺度(如河流集水区)和更长的时间尺度(如数年至数十年)上确定鼹鼠对地貌的影响,以确定其与其他生物扰动因素以及在更广泛的沉积物系统中的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Environmental flows drive sediment and seed supply in regulated rivers
IF 2.8 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1002/esp.6005
Joe Greet, Scott Alexander McKendrick, Kathryn Russell, Thom Gower, Geoff Vietz, J. Angus Webb

Environmental flows are commonly provided in regulated rivers to maintain and restore riverine environments, including riverbank vegetation. Given the expense and political sensitivity of providing water for the environment, greater certainty regarding the expected benefits of environmental flows is required. We assessed the role of managed flows (for both environmental and consumptive purposes) in delivering sediment and plant propagules to facilitate riverbank recovery. Using artificial turf mats, we determined sediment and seed deposition from 11 flow events over 3 years of varying magnitudes, durations and timing in a heavily regulated lowland river in south-east Australia. At three sites on the Goulburn River, Victoria, mats were placed on different geomorphic features along an elevation gradient (bars, benches, banks and ledges) before a flow event, and the sediment deposited during the event was analysed and assessed for seedling emergence. A total of 401 kg of sediment and 110 980 seeds were sampled. Mats that were inundated via managed flow releases had an order of magnitude more sediment, and around twice the richness of seed taxa, than mats that were not inundated. More sediment and seed taxa were deposited on low-lying bars than on more elevated features, while seed composition but not abundance varied across features. A longer duration of inundation was associated with the deposition of more sediment, but not seed taxa or abundance. Unexpectedly, there was no evidence that managed flows delivered less sediment and seeds compared with unregulated tributary inflows. Our findings suggest that in regulated rivers, environmental flows are likely to be critical for providing the sediment and seed necessary to restore geomorphic conditions and promote plant recruitment. Longer flow durations are likely to provide more sediment, while high-flow events may be particularly important for promoting diverse native riparian plant communities across the full range of in-channel geomorphic features.

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引用次数: 0
Sinkhole formation induced by descending groundwater in a karst aquifer near a limestone quarry
IF 2.8 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1002/esp.6010
Rungroj Arjwech, Mark E. Everett

This study presents case studies conducted in northeast Thailand, where sinkhole collapses have continuously occurred in certain areas. Rapid descent of groundwater in a karst aquifer has the potential to induce sinkhole collapses within the karst morphology. Field investigations have revealed surface expressions of potentially hazardous sinkholes associated with zones of groundwater depression and abandoned groundwater wells. 2D electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) profiles were executed along the trend of such sinkhole collapses. The ERT results were combined to outline potentially dangerous cavities and continuous fractures. Sinkhole collapses in this scenario are primarily induced by groundwater depression and rainfall. Groundwater flows through conduits connecting a quarry with a karst cavern network, and dewatering of the quarry reduces the surrounding groundwater level. Runoff from rainfall percolates within overburden and enters air-filled cavities. Additionally, quarry blasting activities may cause vibrations that trigger the formation of sinkholes. Observations of surficial collapse features were generally consistent with geophysical ERT-interpreted subsurface cavities and fractures. Consequently, implementing regulatory measures to restrict the depth of limestone quarrying that affects groundwater levels may be necessary to prevent sinkhole collapses. The sinkhole formation phenomenon underscores a critical link between groundwater fluctuations and the stability of karst landscapes.

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引用次数: 0
Geomorphic river classifications based on different methods coincide in predicting fish assemblage structure
IF 2.8 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1002/esp.6006
Camila Bañales-Seguel, Konrad Górski, Alejandra Zurita, Aliro Manosalva, Bárbara Toledo, Gustavo Díaz, Evelyn Habit

River classification is a necessary starting point for understanding river ecosystems and developing management guidelines. Using GIS to analyse an Andean river basin, we compare the application of two geomorphic classification methods at the segment scale: The Geomorphic Units Survey Classification System (GUS) and the Functional Process Zones (FPZ). Segment definition follows a manual procedure in GUS and a semi-automated procedure in FPZ. Our objective was to assess the relationship between geomorphology and fish assemblages' structure. Fish sampling was carried out in collaboration with participants from local indigenous Mapuche-Pewenche communities. Non-parametric multivariate statistical analyses were conducted in order to quantify and describe geomorphic patterns and whether fish assemblages responded consistently with river classifications. Both classifications give insight into the physical characteristics of rivers, such as slope and floodplain width, that make habitat available for different fish assemblages. The two methods provide results that consistently coincide in their identification of geographic distribution and main geomorphic variables of different river types (geomorphic types) throughout the river network. The variation of different river geomorphologies was associated with variation in fish assemblage structure. Geomorphic variables that best characterize the distribution pattern of fish assemblages were elevation, confinement and valley floor width. Confined rivers accommodated highly similar fish assemblages dominated by invasive trout (Salmo trutta and Oncorhynchus mykiss). Unconfined rivers located at higher elevations had greater temporal variability and were mainly composed of trout and native catfish Trichomycterus areolatus. Semiconfined rivers presented the highest geomorphic variability and were associated with high spatial and temporal variability of fish assemblages characterized by both native and non-native species. The association between fish assemblages and fluvial geomorphology could help in prioritizing rivers for exotic fish species control. These findings should aid in restoring highly intervened Andean rivers and improving management techniques in basins with a variety of human activities.

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引用次数: 0
Hydrological and morphological responses in the São Francisco River Basin (Northeast Brazil) resulting from river damming and climate changes in a tropical region
IF 2.8 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1002/esp.6003
Pedro Victor Oliveira Gomes, Felipe Torres Figueiredo, Gelson Luís Fambrini, Fabiano Pupim, Carlos Henrique Grohmann, Luiz Alberto Vedana, Luisa Sampaio Franco

The São Francisco River in Northeast Brazil has seen hydrological and morphological changes due to extensive damming and climate change over the past century. In this study, we examine the influence of human activities and natural fluctuations in precipitation on the hydrological patterns of the basin and the morphological responses of the lower course of the river (LOW-SF) to these alterations over a span of several decades. The findings indicate a decrease in water release by 41% from 1995 to 2013 and 54% from 2013 to 2018, solely attributed to human actions. Furthermore, the operation of the reservoirs of the large dams resulted in a reduction in hydrological seasonality. The changing hydrological regime caused morphological changes that resulted in an expansion of the exposed subaerial fluvial bars in the LOW-SF and a reduction in channel width. As a result, the abandonment of small secondary channels occurred, leading to the cessation of inundation in previously buried elevated portions of bars, even during certain seasons. Another important factor was the spread of morphological changes in the LOW-SF, which started from the areas farthest from the last dam in the series of large dams, the Xingó Dam, and spread to the nearby regions. This is due to the lack of major tributaries in the semiarid region of the LOW-SF. The integrated assessment presented in this study illustrates both natural and anthropogenic influences. Moreover, in light of projected declines in precipitation, it is anticipated that natural phenomena could result in a substantial 73% decrease in water flow by the mid-20th century. This climatic scenario will lead to increased utilization of hydroelectric plants and more stringent control of water flow downstream of the dam cascade, intensifying the already documented adverse effects and posing the possibility of novel morphological adaptations.

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引用次数: 0
Geomorphological processes and landforms in the Alpine Sulzenau Valley (Tyrol, Austria): Glacier retreat, glacial lake evolution and the 2017 glacial lake outburst flood 阿尔卑斯山苏尔泽瑙谷(奥地利蒂罗尔州)的地貌过程和地形:冰川退缩、冰湖演变和 2017 年冰湖溃决洪水
IF 2.8 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1002/esp.5956
Valentine Piroton, Adam Emmer, Romy Schlögel, Jan Hřebřina, Elena Pummer, Martin Mergili, Hans-Balder Havenith

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are sudden, and often hazardous, floods occurring upon the failure of a glacial lake dam or moraine. A GLOF occurred at Sulzenau Lake (Tyrol, Austria) in August 2017 due to a partial moraine and dam failure, damaging nearby infrastructure. Due to the ongoing retreat of Sulzenau Glacier, the areal extent, depth, water volume, and shoreline configuration of Sulzenau Lake fluctuate over both short- and long-term periods. Here, we used remote sensing data to create a detailed geomorphological overview of the valley, analyse the lake's evolution since 2009, and characterize the conditions leading to the 2017 dam failure. Using optical remote sensing imagery, we generated detailed pre- and post-event geomorphological maps of Sulzenau Lake and areas impacted by the GLOF to characterize erosional and depositional zones. We employed the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and mapped the post-event boulder distribution. Based on multi-temporal mapping, we calculated water volumes, analysed changes in lake and glacier surfaces since 1970, and compared them with ERA-5 meteorological data. Lake growth was primarily due to rising temperatures and glacier retreat. In 2017, both precipitation and air temperatures in the Sulzenau Valley exceeded the 1991–2021 averages, with precipitation 14.8% higher and air temperatures 0.35°C above the 30-year mean. Ice velocities for Sulzenau Glacier reached 170 m/year during 2015–2022. By modelling flow conditions required for observed boulder movements during the GLOF, we constrained the peak discharge to 150–200 m3/s. No significant pre-2017 GLOF activity or meteorological anomalies were detected. Accordingly, we attribute the GLOF and dam failure to an increased meltwater flux and increased precipitation, possibly augmented by subglacial/englacial lake drainage. The 2017 Sulzenau Valley GLOF is a pertinent example of environmental changes and associated hazards in high-mountain glacial environments due to global warming.

冰湖溃决洪水(GLOFs)是冰湖大坝或冰碛溃决时突然发生的洪水,通常具有危险性。2017 年 8 月,苏尔泽瑙湖(奥地利蒂罗尔州)因部分冰碛和大坝溃决而发生冰湖溃决,损坏了附近的基础设施。由于苏尔泽瑙冰川不断后退,苏尔泽瑙湖的面积、深度、水量和湖岸线构造在短期和长期内都会发生波动。在这里,我们利用遥感数据绘制了山谷的详细地貌概览,分析了自 2009 年以来湖泊的演变情况,并描述了导致 2017 年溃坝的条件特征。利用光学遥感图像,我们生成了苏尔泽瑙湖和受冰湖崩塌影响地区的详细灾前灾后地貌图,以描述侵蚀区和沉积区的特征。我们采用归一化差异水指数 (NDWI) 绘制了灾后巨石分布图。根据多时绘图,我们计算了水量,分析了自 1970 年以来湖面和冰川表面的变化,并与 ERA-5 气象数据进行了比较。湖泊增长的主要原因是气温上升和冰川退缩。2017 年,苏尔泽瑙谷的降水量和气温都超过了 1991-2021 年的平均值,其中降水量比 30 年平均值高出 14.8%,气温比 30 年平均值高出 0.35°C。2015-2022 年期间,苏尔泽瑙冰川的冰速达到 170 米/年。通过模拟冰崩期间观测到的巨石移动所需的水流条件,我们将峰值排水量限制在 150-200 立方米/秒。在 2017 年之前,没有发现明显的冰湖融化活动或气象异常。因此,我们将冰湖滑坡和大坝溃决归因于融水通量增加和降水量增加,可能还有冰川下/冰川湖排水量的增加。2017 年苏尔泽瑙谷冰湖泥石流是全球变暖导致高山冰川环境变化和相关危害的一个相关实例。
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引用次数: 0
Hydrogeomorphic response of steep streams following severe wildfire in the Western cascades, Oregon 俄勒冈州西部峡谷严重野火后陡峭溪流的水文地质响应
IF 2.8 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2024-10-08 DOI: 10.1002/esp.5982
David M. Busby, Andrew C. Wilcox

Severe wildfire may alter steep mountain streams by increasing peak discharges, elevating sediment and wood inputs into channels, and increasing susceptibility to landslides and debris flows. In the Pacific Northwest, where mean annual precipitation is high and mean fire-return intervals range from decades to centuries, understanding of steep stream response to fire is limited. We evaluate the hydrologic and geomorphic response of ~100-m-long steep stream reaches to the large-scale and severe 2020 fires in the Western Cascade Range, Oregon. In the two runoff seasons after the fires, peak flows in burned reaches were below the 2-year recurrence interval flood, a level sufficient to mobilize the median grain size of bed material, but not large enough to mobilize coarser material and reorganize channel morphology. Sediment inputs to study streams consisted of two road-fill failure landslides, slumps, sheetwash, and minor bank erosion; precipitation thresholds to trigger debris flows were not exceeded in our sites. There was a 50% increase in the number of large wood pieces in burned reaches after the fires. Changes in fluxes of water, sediment, and wood induced shifts in the balance of sediment supply to transport capacity, initiating a sequence of sediment aggradation and bed-material fining followed by erosion and bed-material coarsening. Gross channel form showed resilience to change, and an unburned reference reach exhibited little morphologic change. Post-fire recruitment of large wood will likely have long-term implications for channel morphology and habitat heterogeneity. Below-average precipitation during the study period, combined with an absence of extreme precipitation events, was an important control on channel responses. Climate change may have a complex effect on stream response to wildfire by increasing the propensity for both drought and extreme rain events and by altering vegetation recovery patterns.

严重的野火可能会通过增加峰值排水量、增加进入河道的沉积物和木材以及增加发生山体滑坡和泥石流的可能性来改变陡峭的山区溪流。西北太平洋地区年平均降水量较高,平均火灾复发间隔时间从几十年到几百年不等,因此人们对陡峭溪流对火灾的反应了解有限。我们评估了俄勒冈州西卡斯卡特山脉约 100 米长的陡峭溪流对 2020 年大规模严重火灾的水文和地貌响应。在火灾后的两个径流季节,被烧毁河段的峰值流量低于 2 年复发间隔洪水,这一水平足以调动河床物质的中值粒径,但不足以调动更粗的物质和重组河道形态。研究溪流的沉积物输入包括两次路基塌方、坍塌、片状冲刷和轻微的河岸侵蚀;在我们的研究地点,没有超过引发泥石流的降水阈值。火灾后,被烧毁河段的大木块数量增加了 50%。水、沉积物和木材流量的变化引起了沉积物供应与运输能力之间平衡的变化,引发了一连串的沉积物侵蚀和床面物质细化,随后是侵蚀和床面物质粗化。总的河道形态显示出对变化的适应能力,未燃烧的参照河段的形态变化很小。火灾后大木头的生长可能会对河道形态和栖息地的异质性产生长期影响。研究期间的降水量低于平均水平,再加上没有发生极端降水事件,是影响河道反应的一个重要因素。气候变化可能会增加干旱和极端降雨事件的发生概率,并改变植被恢复模式,从而对河流对野火的响应产生复杂的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Exploiting the synergy of SARIMA and XGBoost for spatiotemporal earthquake time series forecasting 利用 SARIMA 和 XGBoost 的协同作用进行时空地震时间序列预测
IF 2.8 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1002/esp.5992
Arush Kaushal, Ashok Kumar Gupta, Vivek Kumar Sehgal

Earthquakes are vibrations that occur on the surface of earth, generating fires, ground shaking, tsunamis, landslides and cracks. These incidents can cause severe damage and loss of life. Accurate earthquake forecasts are critical for anticipating and mitigating these hazards, which can avoid damage to buildings and infrastructure and save lives. To address the challenges given by earthquakes probabilistic nature, this paper presents a hybrid SARIMA–XGBoost approach to earthquake magnitude prediction. The suggested technique consists of a two-step process: an exploration phase that uses exploratory data analysis, which includes descriptive statistics and data visualisation, and a prediction phase that focusses on forecasting future earthquakes. Using a large significant earthquake dataset spanning 1965–2023, the study intends to gain insights and lessons for more effective earthquake prediction methods. Further, in a comparison analysis, the results of SARIMA-XGBoost model are compared to those of traditional ARIMA and SARIMA models. The results highlight the superior performance of the hybrid SARIMA–XGBoost model, showcasing a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.038, a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.0040, and a root mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.068. These metrics collectively underscore the model's enhanced accuracy in forecasting earthquake magnitudes. The notably low values of MAE, MSE and RMSE indicate that our hybrid approach significantly improves prediction accuracy compared to alternative models. By integrating SARIMA's time series (TS) analysis with XGBoost's machine learning (ML) capabilities, the hybrid model reduces forecasting errors more effectively, demonstrating its clear advantage in precision.

地震是地球表面发生的震动,会引发火灾、地面震动、海啸、山体滑坡和裂缝。这些事件会造成严重破坏和生命损失。准确的地震预报对于预测和减轻这些危害至关重要,可以避免对建筑物和基础设施造成破坏并挽救生命。为了应对地震概率性所带来的挑战,本文提出了一种 SARIMA-XGBoost 混合地震震级预测方法。所建议的技术包括两个步骤:探索阶段使用探索性数据分析,包括描述性统计和数据可视化;预测阶段侧重于预测未来的地震。该研究使用了跨度为 1965-2023 年的大型重要地震数据集,旨在为更有效的地震预测方法提供启示和经验。此外,在对比分析中,SARIMA-XGBoost 模型的结果与传统的 ARIMA 和 SARIMA 模型的结果进行了比较。结果凸显了 SARIMA-XGBoost 混合模型的卓越性能,其平均绝对误差 (MAE) 为 0.038,平均平方误差 (MSE) 为 0.0040,平均平方根误差 (RMSE) 为 0.068。这些指标共同表明,该模型提高了地震震级预报的准确性。明显较低的 MAE、MSE 和 RMSE 值表明,与其他模型相比,我们的混合方法显著提高了预测精度。通过将 SARIMA 的时间序列 (TS) 分析与 XGBoost 的机器学习 (ML) 功能相结合,混合模型更有效地减少了预测误差,显示出其在精度方面的明显优势。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamics and internal structure of a rock glacier: Inferring relationships from the combined use of differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry, electrical resistivity tomography and ground-penetrating radar 岩石冰川的动力学和内部结构:综合利用差分合成孔径雷达干涉测量法、电阻率层析成像法和探地雷达推断各种关系
IF 2.8 3区 地球科学 Q2 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL Pub Date : 2024-09-29 DOI: 10.1002/esp.5993
Sebastian Buchelt, Julius Kunz, Tim Wiegand, Christof Kneisel

Rock glaciers are characteristic landforms in alpine environments originating from the movement of permanently frozen ground. Hereby, rock glacier velocity (RGV) is an important parameter for understanding the effects of climate change on mountain permafrost. Although understanding of rock glacier dynamics has increased during the last decades, linking small-scale surface kinematics to sub-surface properties and heterogeneities remains a challenge. To address this gap, we conducted geophysical surveys (electrical resistivity tomography [ERT] and ground-penetrating radar [GPR]) along two profile lines of 450 and 950 m in length on a rock glacier in the Central Swiss Alps. Additionally, RGV was derived from Sentinel-1 differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry (DInSAR) to quantify annual east–west displacement and elevation change as well as seasonal acceleration during the snow-free summer months with a ground sampling distance of 5 m. Our results show that movement angle and seasonality are highly associated with different patterns in sub-surface structure. These different movement patterns are linked to subunits of different morphological origins. Thereby, we can upscale the geophysical results based on the DInSAR surface movement parameters and outline an area within the study site probably affected by ice of glacial origin. Hence, DInSAR movement angle and seasonality can help to bring local sub-surface information derived from time-consuming geophysical investigations into the spatial domain. In this way, a better understanding of the current morphodynamics as well as the past and future evolution of the landform can be reached. Applying the approach to other sites with available geophysical investigations could enhance our knowledge about systematic links between surface kinematics and the internal structure of rock glaciers and other ice-rich glacial and peri-glacial landforms, as well as their response to a warming climate.

岩石冰川是高山环境中的特有地貌,源于永久冻结地面的运动。因此,岩石冰川速度(RGV)是了解气候变化对高山永久冻土影响的一个重要参数。尽管在过去几十年中人们对岩石冰川动力学的了解有所加深,但将小尺度地表运动学与地表下属性和异质性联系起来仍然是一项挑战。为了填补这一空白,我们在瑞士中部阿尔卑斯山的岩石冰川上,沿着两条长度分别为 450 米和 950 米的剖面线进行了地球物理勘测(电阻率层析成像仪 (ERT) 和探地雷达 (GPR))。此外,还利用哨兵-1 差分合成孔径雷达干涉测量法(DInSAR)得出了 RGV,以量化无雪夏季的东西向年位移和海拔变化以及季节性加速度,地面采样距离为 5 米。我们的结果表明,移动角度和季节性与地表下结构的不同模式高度相关。这些不同的运动模式与不同形态起源的亚单位有关。因此,我们可以根据 DInSAR 地表运动参数放大地球物理结果,并在研究地点内勾勒出可能受冰川冰影响的区域。因此,DInSAR 的运动角度和季节性有助于将耗时的地球物理调查所获得的当地次表层信息引入空间领域。这样,就能更好地了解地貌当前的形态动力学以及过去和未来的演变情况。将这一方法应用于其他可进行地球物理调查的地点,可以增强我们对岩石冰川和其他富冰冰川及近冰川地貌的地表运动学与内部结构之间的系统联系,以及它们对气候变暖的反应的了解。
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Earth Surface Processes and Landforms
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